Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The Shanghai nickel price has fallen back to around the 120,000 mark. On the 29th, the main contract 2511 fell 0.61% to 121,100 compared with the previous day. There is still pressure of oversupply for pure nickel, but it is supported by nickel ore and costs at the current position and is hard to fall deeply. Recently, the prices of NPI and nickel sulfate are relatively strong. One should continue to pay attention to the supply-side news from Indonesia, and the bottom support reference for Shanghai nickel has been slightly raised to the 120,000 level. With the long holiday approaching, it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday to control risks [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel fell 0.61% to 121,100 on the 29th compared with the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 to 2,300 compared with the previous day, and the premium or discount of domestic electrowon nickel was reported at -100 - 200. The average price of 8 - 12% high-nickel pig iron decreased by 0.5 to 954.5 yuan per nickel point compared with the previous day, and the average price of battery-grade nickel sulfate increased by 60 to 28,260 yuan per ton compared with the previous day [7] - Indonesia will start the approval work for 2026 in October. The adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle may still disrupt the supply of nickel ore at the beginning of next year. Some smelters may stock up in advance in the fourth quarter to lock in nickel ore inventory. It is expected that the price of nickel ore will not fall deeply this year and may rise slightly. NPI remains strong supported by costs and the expectation of demand recovery, but the improvement space for the stainless steel terminal is limited. The profit of nickel-iron enterprises has recovered significantly, and the subsequent upward space may be limited. The price of nickel salts remains strong supported by the pre-holiday stocking demand [7] - It is recommended to hold a light position during the long holiday to control risks [7] Group 5: Industry News - The Democratic Republic of the Congo is considering extending the cobalt export ban for at least two months. The mining department's decision needs to be approved by the presidential palace. It is expected that an official document will be issued this Sunday or next Monday. This news will boost the sentiment of the MHP cobalt coefficient and may drive up its price. If the ban is confirmed to be extended, it is expected that the inventory of smelting enterprises will remain below the safety level [8][10] - China's central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said that the details of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the next financial reform will be further communicated after the central government's unified deployment. Currently, China's financial system is generally stable, and the financial market is operating smoothly. When responding to the Fed's interest rate cut, Pan Gongsheng said that multiple monetary policy tools will be comprehensively applied to ensure sufficient liquidity according to the macroeconomic operation and situation changes [10] - Indonesia's forest law enforcement working group announced a concentrated rectification of mines. Previously, the working group took similar actions in the palm oil industry, taking over 3.3 million hectares of illegal plantations. The focus of this action is to regain the state's control over forests, and enterprises need to return illegal profits to the state. Some cases may enter criminal investigations. The seized mines will be temporarily managed by the state-owned enterprise department [10] - FPX Nickel announced its active participation in two important sustainable development initiatives in 2025, demonstrating its commitment to responsible mineral exploration and project development. The company has joined the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) and promised to follow its "Towards Sustainable Mining (TSM)" framework, and also signed up to join the United Nations Global Compact (UN Global Compact) [10]