1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate and adjust, and stainless steel futures prices will also fluctuate and adjust [9] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary Nickel - **Weekly Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel rose first and then fell, with a weekly gain of +2.54% and an amplitude of 7.33%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 135,190 yuan/ton [9] - **Market Outlook**: The US existing - home sales in January were lower than expected. The import of nickel ore in the Philippines is expected to decline due to the rainy season. Indonesia plans to cut the RKAB quota significantly next year, and the raw material supply is expected to shrink in the second quarter. The production quota of the world's largest nickel mine, Weda Bay Nickel Mine, will be significantly lower than that in 2025. The production of nickel iron in Indonesia remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase. The domestic refined nickel production capacity is large, and the production profit has room for improvement, so the output of refined nickel is expected to rise again. The demand from stainless steel mills and the new - energy vehicle industry is increasing. Both domestic and overseas nickel inventories are increasing. Technically, the position is stable, and the market sentiment is flat [9] Stainless Steel - **Weekly Review**: This week, stainless steel rose first and then fell, with a weekly gain of +1.39% and an amplitude of 4.17%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 13,860 yuan/ton [9] - **Market Outlook**: The raw material supply of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening, and nickel - iron production will face pressure to cut production. The production profit of stainless steel mills has improved, but the increase in nickel - iron prices has raised the cost. The end - of - year maintenance of steel mills increases, and the output growth is limited. The downstream demand is turning to the off - season, but the export volume remains high. As the Spring Festival approaches, the trading atmosphere calms down, and the social inventory of stainless steel begins to accumulate seasonally. Technically, the position decreases, and both long and short positions are cautious [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Price Movement - As of February 13, the closing price of Shanghai nickel was 135,190 yuan/ton, up 3,350 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,860 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton from last week [15] - As of February 13, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) in the country was 1,045 yuan/nickel, up 5 yuan/nickel from last week [15] Basis - As of February 13, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 140,100 yuan/ton, with a basis of 4,910 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 14,650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 790 yuan/ton [20] Price Ratio - As of February 13, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 9.75, up 0.11 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.7 yuan/ton, down 0 from last week [27] Net Long Positions - As of February 12, 2026, the net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 52,531 lots, an increase of 6,355 lots from February 6, 2026. The net long position of the top 20 in stainless steel was - 3,583 lots, an increase of 956 lots from February 6, 2026 [31] 3.3 Industrial Chain Conditions Supply Side - **Nickel Ore Inventory and Production Profit**: As of February 6, the nickel ore inventory in major domestic ports was 1,108.53 million tons, a decrease of 63.81 million tons from last week. As of February 13, the production profit of electrowon nickel was - 7,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,600 yuan/ton from last week [39][40] - **Domestic Electrolytic Nickel Production and Import**: In December 2025, the electrolytic nickel production was 29,058 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.16%. In December 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 23,861.23 tons, a year - on - year increase of 85.83%. From January to December, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 233,105.581 tons, a year - on - year increase of 133.4% [43] - **Exchange Inventories**: As of February 13, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 58,775 tons, an increase of 1,318 tons from last week. As of February 13, the LME nickel inventory was 286,386 tons, an increase of 2,238 tons from last week [51] Demand Side - **Stainless Steel Production and Export**: In January 2026, the total output of stainless crude steel was 3.5364 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.46%. Among them, the output of 400 - series stainless steel was 645,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.64%; the output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.8581 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.35%; the output of 200 - series stainless steel was 1.0331 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.85%. In December 2025, the stainless steel import volume was 141,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,300 tons; the export volume was 404,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 71,300 tons. From January to February, the cumulative net import volume was - 2.7324 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 262,900 tons [55] - **Regional Stainless Steel Inventory**: As of February 13, the stainless steel inventory in Foshan was 304,983 tons, an increase of 19,938 tons from last week; the stainless steel inventory in Wuxi was 531,769 tons, an increase of 15,626 tons from last week [60] - **Stainless Steel Production Profit**: As of February 13, the stainless steel production profit was 89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from last week [64] - **Related Industries**: In 2025, the real estate industry showed a weak downward trend, with the new - construction area, completion area, and development investment all decreasing year - on - year. In December 2025, the output of air conditioners decreased year - on - year, while the output of household refrigerators and freezers increased year - on - year, and the output of washing machines decreased year - on - year. In January 2026, the production of new - energy vehicles was flat year - on - year, and the sales decreased year - on - year. In December 2025, the output of excavators and large - and medium - sized tractors increased year - on - year, while the output of small tractors decreased year - on - year [68][72]

Group 1: US-Israel Meeting and Iran's Position - The closed-door meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and US President Trump lasted about three hours, focusing on the potential for a US-Iran agreement and the need for a joint action plan if negotiations fail [2] - Both sides expressed skepticism about reaching an agreement with Iran, emphasizing Israel's security needs and the importance of ensuring Iran cannot obtain nuclear weapons [2] - Iran reiterated its stance on nuclear negotiations, stating it has not received specific proposals from the US and warned of retaliation against US military bases in the region if attacked [3][4] Group 2: Military Movements and Defense Enhancements - The US military is preparing for potential action against Iran, with plans to deploy a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East and increase military aircraft presence in various bases [6] - Israel is enhancing its domestic defense capabilities, having completed complex tests of the "David's Sling" medium-range defense system, marking a significant technical and operational breakthrough [6] Group 3: Nickel Market Dynamics - Indonesia's nickel production quota for this year is expected to be between 260 million to 270 million tons, slightly above market expectations but nearly a 30% reduction compared to the 379 million tons quota for 2025 [11] - Following this announcement, nickel prices surged over 4%, indicating a strong market response and a return of investment interest [12] - Analysts suggest that if Indonesia does not increase its production quota, a supply gap may emerge in the nickel market, potentially raising costs and exacerbating structural imbalances in the industry [12][13] Group 4: Future Outlook for Nickel - The market is expected to remain in a tight balance regarding nickel supply and demand, with a strong likelihood of continued upward price pressure in the short term [14] - Key factors to monitor include the implementation of Indonesian policies and the impact of seasonal weather patterns on nickel supply from the Philippines and Indonesia [14]

| | | 沪镍产业日报 2026-01-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 142320 | 970 02-03月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -210 | 30 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 17792 | -798 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 83210 | -14515 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -61562 | 8295 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 285732 | 450 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 48180 | 1530 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 13098 | 0 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 41798 | -187 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 145900 | -3450 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日,元/吨) | 146100 | -3350 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The outer market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, oscillating near the previous top of the trading range. The change in Indonesian quotas may affect raw material supply. Some production capacities have recently cut production, reducing supply pressure. In the long - term, the supply is expected to be loose. The overall demand for nickel is only slightly boosted by the good production and sales data of new energy vehicles. The conclusion is that Shanghai Nickel 2602 will run near the previous top of the trading range, with a slightly stronger oscillation. For the medium - and long - term, it is advisable to short on rebounds [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel has slightly increased. The short - term nickel ore price is stable, and the cost line is stable. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased. Stainless Steel 2602 is expected to run with a slightly stronger oscillation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Overview - **Nickel**: On December 23, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 123,440, up 2,180 from the previous day; the price of LME Nickel was 15,640, up 380. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 125,250, up 3,450; the price of 1 Jinchuan Nickel was 128,750, up 3,625; the price of 1 imported nickel was 122,250, up 3,425; the price of nickel beans was 124,300, up 3,425 [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: On December 23, the price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,905, up 55 from the previous day. The price of cold - rolled coil 304*2B in Wuxi remained unchanged at 13,500, while in Foshan it was up 100 to 13,500 [10]. 3.2 Inventory - **Nickel**: As of December 23, LME nickel inventory was 254,604, an increase of 216; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 38,621, a decrease of 301. The total inventory was 293,225, a decrease of 85 [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: As of December 23, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 47,705, a decrease of 607. As of December 19, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.0421 million tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons compared to the previous period [16][17]. 3.3 Raw Material Prices - **Nickel Ore**: On December 23, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 55 dollars per wet ton, and the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 29 dollars per wet ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous day. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 8.5 dollars per ton, and to Tianjin Port was 9.5 dollars per ton, also remaining unchanged [21]. - **Nickel Iron**: On December 23, the price of high - nickel iron (8 - 12) was 890 yuan per nickel point, up 3.5 from the previous day; the price of low - nickel iron (below 2) was 3,250 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged [21]. 3.4 Production Cost - **Stainless Steel**: The traditional production cost was 12,658, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,021, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,647 [23]. 3.5 Import Cost The calculated import price of nickel was 124,930 yuan per ton [25].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views For Shanghai Nickel - Last week, nickel prices rebounded, with manufacturers showing some reluctance to sell and traders remaining cautious in purchasing. Some production capacities have reduced recently, leading to a shortage of certain supplies. The price of nickel ore is firm, and ocean freight rates remain unchanged. The RKAB quota in Indonesia for 2026 is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating a loose supply outlook. The price of nickel iron shows signs of stabilizing, with most remaining stable and a small portion still declining. The cost line remains stable. Stainless steel inventory has increased, and demand remains weak. Refined nickel inventory remains at a high level, and the oversupply situation persists. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, the overall boost to nickel demand is limited. The basis is positive, but inventory, the market trend, and the main positions all suggest a bearish outlook. The Shanghai Nickel 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and for the medium - to - long - term, it is advisable to sell on rebounds [2]. For Stainless Steel - The spot price of stainless steel has slightly decreased. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is firm, ocean freight rates are unchanged, and the price of nickel iron has stopped falling with most remaining stable, so the cost line remains stable. Stainless steel inventory has increased. The basis is positive, inventory is neutral, and the market trend is bearish. The Stainless Steel 2601 contract is expected to be under pressure below the 20 - day moving average and operate weakly [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Nickel Futures**: On November 28, the Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 117,010, up 110 from the previous day; the LME nickel closed at 14,820, down 20. Among spot nickel, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 119,500, up 500; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 121,900, up 600; 1 imported nickel was 117,550, up 500; and nickel beans were 119,600, up 500 [10]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,355 on November 28, down 55 from the previous day. Among spot stainless steel, the average price of cold - rolled 304*2B in different regions showed little change, with some prices remaining stable and a small decline in Foshan [10]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of November 28, the LME nickel inventory was 254,760 tons, a decrease of 690 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 33,309 tons, a decrease of 239 tons. The total inventory was 288,069 tons, a decrease of 929 tons [13]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On November 28, the inventory in Wuxi was 579,400 tons, in Foshan was 355,900 tons, and the national inventory was 1,086,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,400 tons. The inventory of the 300 - series was 669,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,400 tons. The stainless steel warehouse receipts were 63,119 tons, a decrease of 354 tons [16][17]. Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - The price of laterite nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% remained at 57 US dollars per wet ton, and with Ni0.9% remained at 29 US dollars per wet ton on November 28. Ocean freight rates from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) was 883 yuan per nickel point, down 1 yuan, and the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) remained at 3,200 yuan per ton [20]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,473 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 12,768 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel iron and pure nickel was 16,248 yuan [22]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 118,722 yuan per ton [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Report Core Views Copper - Copper prices strengthened due to improved market risk appetite after China and the US agreed to conduct economic and trade consultations. In the short - term, China - US talks boosted market sentiment, the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet, and the COMEX - LME spread widened. Fundamentally, tight copper ore supply supports prices, and high copper prices moderately suppress downstream demand. The terminal demand has strong resilience. The main contract is expected to be supported at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. The futures price is expected to continue to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices showed a strong - oscillating trend. With stable supply, resilient demand, and declining inventory, the short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and showed a strong - oscillating trend. Cost support is prominent, but high inventory and policy uncertainty restrict price increases. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating pattern, with the main contract in the range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Due to concerns about the LME zinc market squeeze and China - US economic and trade consultations, the Shanghai zinc price rebounded. The supply is loose, and the demand is not outstanding. The short - term price may rise due to macro - drivers but will likely oscillate without a clear inflection point in the supply - loose logic, with the main contract in the range of 21800 - 22800 [8]. Tin - Tin supply is tight, and demand is weak. The tin price continues to oscillate at a high level. If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly in the fourth quarter, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to continue to run strongly [10]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of high - level oscillation. Macro - factors are temporarily stable, and the cost has support, but inventory accumulation restricts the upside space. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 126000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed a low - level upward repair. Macro - factors may bring policy expectations. The supply pressure is increasing, and demand improvement is not obvious. The short - term market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 12600 - 13000 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market showed a significant upward trend. The supply - demand gap exists in the peak season, and demand is optimistic. The short - term market is expected to run strongly, with the main contract in the range of 76000 - 82000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 85490 yuan/ton, up 0.63% [1]. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 7.02% to 3366 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21040 yuan/ton, up 0.29% [3]. - Alumina prices in various regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 21200 yuan/ton, up 0.47% [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22100 yuan/ton, up 0.91% [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased to 280000 yuan/ton, down 0.36% [10]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8714, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10510 [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122150 yuan/ton, up 0.04% [12]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 in September, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17010 [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13000 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 companies) increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and Indonesia's production increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 74800 yuan/ton, up 0.61% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116801 [16].

General Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team, including researchers Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] Report's Core View - On the 10th, Shanghai nickel rose and then fell. The main contract 2511 reached a maximum of 124,880, then followed the sector down, closing at 122,180, a 0.76% drop from the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 to 2,300, and the spot premium of domestic electrodeposited nickel was reported at -150 - 200. The average price of 8 - 12% high-nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 954.5 yuan per nickel point, while the average price of battery-grade nickel sulfate increased by 70 to 28,320 yuan per ton. Policy changes in the Indonesian mining sector and strengthened regulatory activities have made the support at the nickel ore end stronger again. After the holiday, Shanghai nickel turned up, but the fundamental surplus of primary nickel has not changed substantially, and the nickel price is still under pressure above. The rebound space should be viewed with caution, and attention should be paid to overseas market changes. The lower support has moved up to the 120,000 level [7] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 10th, the main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel reached a maximum of 124,880, then followed the sector down, closing at 122,180, a 0.76% drop from the previous day [7] - The average premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 to 2,300, and the spot premium of domestic electrodeposited nickel was reported at -150 - 200 [7] - The average price of 8 - 12% high-nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 954.5 yuan per nickel point, while the average price of battery-grade nickel sulfate increased by 70 to 28,320 yuan per ton [7] - Policy changes in the Indonesian mining sector and strengthened regulatory activities have made the support at the nickel ore end stronger again. The new RKAB regulations have changed from a three-year batch to a one-year batch, and the mining quotas for 2026 obtained by some enterprises have been invalidated. The Indonesian government has also taken over more than 148 hectares of mining areas in the Wedabay Industrial Park, affecting no more than 1.2 million wet tons of nickel ore production, and ordered 190 mining companies that have not paid reclamation deposits to suspend production for up to 60 days, with an estimated volume of about 3 million wet tons [7] - The entry of the world's second-largest copper mine into force majeure has triggered concerns about global metal supply. After the holiday, Shanghai nickel turned up, but the fundamental surplus of primary nickel has not changed substantially, and the nickel price is still under pressure above. The rebound space should be viewed with caution, and attention should be paid to overseas market changes. The lower support has moved up to the 120,000 level [7] Industry News - SMM expects the HPM of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore to rise slightly in the second half of October, with a projected month-on-month increase of 0.27%. The HMA in the second half of October is 15,142 US dollars per dry ton, an increase of 40 US dollars per dry ton [10] - The HPM prices of nickel ore with different grades in the second half of October have all increased slightly compared to the first half of the month. For example, the HPM price of 1.2% nickel ore is 15.35 US dollars per wet ton, an increase of 0.04 US dollars per wet ton [10][12] - The Indonesian forest law enforcement task force will conduct a centralized rectification of mines. The task force has previously taken similar actions in the palm oil industry, taking over 3.3 million hectares of illegal plantations. The prosecutor said that the focus of this action is to regain national control over forests, and enterprises need to return illegal profits to the state. Some cases may further enter criminal investigations [11] - FPX Nickel announced its active participation in two important sustainable development initiatives in 2025, joining the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) and signing the United Nations Global Compact, demonstrating its commitment to responsible mineral exploration and project development [11] - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, said at a press conference that regarding the financial reform content of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the next step, further communication will be made after the central government's unified deployment. Currently, China's financial system is generally stable, and the financial market is operating smoothly. When responding to the Fed's interest rate cut, he said that multiple monetary policy tools will be comprehensively applied to ensure sufficient liquidity according to the macroeconomic operation and situation changes [12]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The Shanghai nickel price has fallen back to around the 120,000 mark. On the 29th, the main contract 2511 fell 0.61% to 121,100 compared with the previous day. There is still pressure of oversupply for pure nickel, but it is supported by nickel ore and costs at the current position and is hard to fall deeply. Recently, the prices of NPI and nickel sulfate are relatively strong. One should continue to pay attention to the supply-side news from Indonesia, and the bottom support reference for Shanghai nickel has been slightly raised to the 120,000 level. With the long holiday approaching, it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday to control risks [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel fell 0.61% to 121,100 on the 29th compared with the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 to 2,300 compared with the previous day, and the premium or discount of domestic electrowon nickel was reported at -100 - 200. The average price of 8 - 12% high-nickel pig iron decreased by 0.5 to 954.5 yuan per nickel point compared with the previous day, and the average price of battery-grade nickel sulfate increased by 60 to 28,260 yuan per ton compared with the previous day [7] - Indonesia will start the approval work for 2026 in October. The adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle may still disrupt the supply of nickel ore at the beginning of next year. Some smelters may stock up in advance in the fourth quarter to lock in nickel ore inventory. It is expected that the price of nickel ore will not fall deeply this year and may rise slightly. NPI remains strong supported by costs and the expectation of demand recovery, but the improvement space for the stainless steel terminal is limited. The profit of nickel-iron enterprises has recovered significantly, and the subsequent upward space may be limited. The price of nickel salts remains strong supported by the pre-holiday stocking demand [7] - It is recommended to hold a light position during the long holiday to control risks [7] Group 5: Industry News - The Democratic Republic of the Congo is considering extending the cobalt export ban for at least two months. The mining department's decision needs to be approved by the presidential palace. It is expected that an official document will be issued this Sunday or next Monday. This news will boost the sentiment of the MHP cobalt coefficient and may drive up its price. If the ban is confirmed to be extended, it is expected that the inventory of smelting enterprises will remain below the safety level [8][10] - China's central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said that the details of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the next financial reform will be further communicated after the central government's unified deployment. Currently, China's financial system is generally stable, and the financial market is operating smoothly. When responding to the Fed's interest rate cut, Pan Gongsheng said that multiple monetary policy tools will be comprehensively applied to ensure sufficient liquidity according to the macroeconomic operation and situation changes [10] - Indonesia's forest law enforcement working group announced a concentrated rectification of mines. Previously, the working group took similar actions in the palm oil industry, taking over 3.3 million hectares of illegal plantations. The focus of this action is to regain the state's control over forests, and enterprises need to return illegal profits to the state. Some cases may enter criminal investigations. The seized mines will be temporarily managed by the state-owned enterprise department [10] - FPX Nickel announced its active participation in two important sustainable development initiatives in 2025, demonstrating its commitment to responsible mineral exploration and project development. The company has joined the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) and promised to follow its "Towards Sustainable Mining (TSM)" framework, and also signed up to join the United Nations Global Compact (UN Global Compact) [10]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of nickel ore in the fourth quarter still has significant room for release, but attention should be paid to possible policy changes in Indonesia [7]. - The stainless - steel industry in the nickel - iron - stainless - steel chain is supported by nickel - iron prices. The supply side actively reduces production to adjust inventory, but overall, it still faces great pressure. Concerns remain about potential inventory accumulation after holidays [7]. - In the new - energy industry chain, the raw material side is supported by tight supply, but the demand increase may be limited [7]. - For primary nickel, domestic production capacity still has a release plan. After de - stocking in the first half of the year due to some demand stimulation, recent inventory accumulation has begun to appear, dragging down nickel prices. In the fourth quarter, the overall supply of nickel ore, premium, and primary nickel inventory should be focused on. If the supply is loose and primary nickel inventory accumulates, the price center will move further down [7]. - The price range for nickel is expected to be between 105,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Price/Base - spread/Spread/Ratio - Nickel price is affected by factors such as nickel - ore premium, cobalt export ban, inventory changes, and macro - sentiment. The price has experienced fluctuations including over - decline, recovery, and weak - range oscillations [13]. - For nickel base - spreads, spreads, and ratios, relevant charts show historical data trends, which can be used to analyze market conditions [15][17][19]. - For stainless - steel prices, ratios, and spreads, relevant charts show the trends of spot premium, contract spreads, and the ratio of nickel to stainless - steel, providing a basis for price analysis [23][25][27]. 3.2 Inventory - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has been continuously increasing, exceeding 230,000 tons by the end of September, reaching the highest level in recent years, with significant Chinese brand deliveries. The inventory accumulation of Shanghai nickel is relatively less obvious, with the current social inventory at around 40,000 tons [9][30]. - **Stainless - steel**: The supply side actively reduces production to adjust inventory levels. The current stainless - steel inventory has decreased to around 980,000 tons, with the 300 - series dropping to 620,000 tons [9][33][37]. 3.3 Nickel Ore - **Policy**: Indonesia has strengthened the role of the "government's hand" through systems such as SIMBARA and MOMS, and adjusted nickel - product royalties. The Philippines' plan to ban nickel - ore exports was revoked in mid - June [40][41]. - **Supply and Demand**: From January to August 2025, China's nickel - ore imports increased by 7% year - on - year to 26.1335 million wet tons, and port inventory was about 9.71 million wet tons. By the end of September, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore was 24 - 25 US dollars/wet ton [5][44]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: Refined - nickel production capacity has been continuously expanding, with a monthly production capacity of around 54,000 tons by the end of August. The production using externally sourced raw materials is mostly unprofitable, while integrated MHP production is profitable. From January to August, the cumulative production increased by about 26% year - on - year to 260,000 tons. The cumulative imports increased by 178% year - on - year to 159,000 tons, exports increased by 69% year - on - year to 122,000 tons, and net imports were 37,000 tons [5][47]. - **Demand**: Apparent consumption has increased significantly year - on - year, exports have slowed down, and the domestic electroplating demand has increased relatively obviously [50]. - **Balance**: With the continuous release of production capacity and the weakening of internal - external price differences, the surplus has expanded [9]. 3.5 Nickel - Iron - Stainless - Steel - **Supply**: Affected by the rising nickel - ore prices and average stainless - steel demand, the nickel - iron smelting profit has been squeezed, and the domestic operating rate has continued to decline. From January to August, the cumulative production decreased by 8% year - on - year to 20,000 nickel tons. The nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia has slightly expanded, and production has been continuously released, with the cumulative production from January to August increasing by 17% year - on - year to 1.113 million nickel tons [5][53]. - **Production and Sales of Stainless - Steel**: From January to August, China's cumulative stainless - steel production increased by 6% year - on - year to 26.33 million tons, and Indonesia's cumulative production increased by 4% year - on - year to 3.23 million tons. From January to August, cumulative imports decreased by 23% year - on - year to 1.02 million tons, cumulative exports increased by 3% year - on - year to 3.36 million tons, and net exports were 2.35 million tons. From January to August, stainless - steel consumption increased by 3% year - on - year to 22.115 million tons [5][6][58]. - **Profit**: Nickel - iron prices first declined and then rose, but generally remained at a low level in the past three years. Chromium - iron prices have strengthened periodically since the beginning of the year, and the theoretical immediate profit has been mostly in the red [61]. 3.6 New Energy - **Raw Materials**: The marginal production scheduling of ternary materials has increased, and the cobalt ban has boosted the demand for MHP, with the spot price strengthening. From January to August, the supply of Indonesian MHP increased by 56% year - on - year to 285,000 nickel tons, and the high - grade nickel matte production decreased by 38% year - on - year to 115,000 nickel tons. From January to August, MHP imports increased by 20% year - on - year to 220,000 nickel tons, and nickel - matte imports decreased by 12% year - on - year to 270,000 tons. From January to August, domestic nickel - sulfate production decreased by 16% year - on - year to 210,000 nickel tons, and imports increased by 7% year - on - year to 160,000 tons [5][10][78]. - **Production**: In 2025, from January to September, the production of ternary precursors was basically flat year - on - year at 620,000 tons; from January to September, the cumulative production of ternary materials increased by 11% year - on - year to 567,000 tons; from January to August, the production of ternary power cells increased by 16% year - on - year to 242 GWh, the production of ternary batteries increased by 15% year - on - year to 255.7 GWh, the installed capacity decreased by 10% year - on - year to 77.3 GWh, and the inventory decreased slightly compared to the beginning of the year to 30.34 GWh [6][10][90].

Group 1 - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) saw its stock price increase by over 25%, currently trading at 1.78 HKD with a transaction volume of 55.9 million HKD [1] - The company reported a mid-year revenue of approximately 1.118 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of about 4.9% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 71.6 million CNY, showing a significant year-on-year decline of about 50.2% [1] Group 2 - During the reporting period, the company produced 6,030 tons of electrolytic nickel, which is an increase of approximately 26.7% year-on-year [1] - Sales of electrolytic nickel reached 5,672 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 29.6% [1] - The production of cathode copper was 3,815 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 7.0%, while sales of cathode copper increased by 51.6% to 4,559 tons [1] Group 3 - On August 30, the Chinese Embassy in Indonesia reported large-scale protests in cities like Jakarta [1] - Guotai Junan Futures indicated that the Indonesian government might shorten the RKAB approval cycle from three years to one year, urging companies to resubmit their 2026 RKAB budgets by October 2025 [1] - Potential delays in approvals or nickel ore replenishment actions could limit the downward price pressure on nickel in the second half of the year, providing high price support from the mining sector [1]