1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the 11th, nickel prices fluctuated within a narrow range, mainly following the sector and market sentiment. The main contract operated between 136,000 - 138,000 yuan. The total open interest slightly decreased by 138 to 365,000 lots. The ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 5.5 to 1,092.5 yuan per nickel point compared to the previous day. The market's low - price supplies were basically consumed, and the cost of available supplies from upstream smelters was relatively high, so the quotes began to rise. The tender prices of mainstream steel mills boosted the purchasing sentiment of steel mills, driving the market transaction center to rise again. Nickel iron prices may still have room to rise. The price of nickel sulfate remained unchanged at 32,070 yuan per ton. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association expects the Indonesian government to accept RKAB revision applications in July, potentially increasing the 2026 quota by up to 30%, alleviating concerns about the nickel ore supply gap this year. However, considering that the tight supply of nickel ore is a fact, there is still some support for nickel prices at the lower end. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to be dominated by policy - side impacts, with a focus on changes in Indonesian industrial policies, and a range - trading approach is recommended for now [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Nickel price on the 11th: Narrow - range fluctuation, main contract in the range of 136,000 - 138,000 yuan, total open interest slightly decreased by 138 to 365,000 lots [8] - Nickel iron price: The ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 5.5 to 1,092.5 yuan per nickel point, with potential for further increase [8] - Nickel sulfate price: Remained unchanged at 32,070 yuan per ton [8] - Policy impact: The Indonesian government is expected to accept RKAB revision applications in July, potentially increasing the 2026 quota by up to 30%, with nickel prices having some support at the lower end and being dominated by policy - side impacts [8] 3.2行业要闻 - **Vale**: In 2025, its nickel production reached 177,000 tons, the highest since 2022, a year - on - year increase of 10.69% (17,100 tons). The Q4 production was 46,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. It expects 2026 nickel production to be between 175,000 - 200,000 tons [9] - **First Quantum Minerals Ltd.**: In 2025, copper production was about 396,000 tons within the revised guidance range, gold production was about 152,000 ounces above the upper limit of the guidance, and Enterprise nickel production exceeded expectations. It slightly lowered the 2026 - 2027 copper and gold production guidance, kept the nickel production guidance unchanged, expected higher unit copper cash cost and AISC, and raised the 2026 capital expenditure guidance. The Panama government agreed to process Cobre Panamá inventory ores [10] - **Indonesia**: The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association expects the domestic nickel smelting industry's nickel ore demand in 2026 to be about 340 - 350 million tons. The ESDM plans to strategically adjust the 2026 nickel ore production quota (RKAB) to 250 - 260 million tons, and has allowed the existing quota to be extended until March 31, 2026, with the actual annual supply depending on later government evaluation and quota addition [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On March 5, Shanghai nickel showed a narrow and weak performance. The main contract 2605 closed at 136,270 yuan/ton, a 0.31% decline from the previous day. The ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 1089 yuan/nickel point, and the price of nickel sulfate increased by 115 to 32,050 yuan/ton. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association's statement that the Indonesian government may increase the 2026 quota by up to 30% in July has eased market concerns about the nickel ore supply gap this year. However, considering the tightening of nickel ore supply, there is still some support for nickel prices. In the short term, the price increase has weakened due to the alleviation of market sentiment. The situation of the new quota needs to be observed in July. Overall, in the context of resource competition and tight supply, nickel prices are more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back before trying long positions [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - On March 5, the main contract 2605 of Shanghai nickel closed at 136,270 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day. The ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1089 yuan/nickel point, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of nickel sulfate increased by 115 to 32,050 yuan/ton. The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association's statement about the potential quota increase in July has eased supply gap concerns, but nickel ore supply is still tight. In the short term, the price increase has loosened, and the new quota situation needs further observation. Overall, nickel prices are likely to rise, and it is advisable to wait for a pull - back to go long [8] 3.2行业要闻 - Vale's nickel production in 2025 reached 177,000 tons, the highest since 2022, a 10.69% increase from 2024. The fourth - quarter production was 46,200 tons, a 1.5% year - on - year increase. The company expects 2026 production to be between 175,000 and 200,000 tons [9] - First Quantum Minerals Ltd. released 2025 preliminary production data and 2026 - 2028 production, cost, and capital expenditure guidance. Its 2025 copper production was about 396,000 tons, within the revised range, and gold production was about 152,000 ounces, higher than the upper limit. Enterprise nickel production also exceeded expectations. The company slightly lowered the 2026 - 2027 copper and gold production guidance, kept the nickel production guidance unchanged, and raised the 2026 capital expenditure guidance. The Panama government's agreement to process Cobre Panamá inventory ore is a positive signal [10] - The Indonesian Nickel Smelters Association estimates that the domestic nickel smelting industry's nickel ore demand in 2026 will be about 340 - 350 million tons. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to adjust the 2026 nickel ore production quota to 250 - 260 million tons. The existing quota is allowed to be used until March 31, 2026, and the actual annual supply depends on government evaluation and quota addition [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate and adjust, and stainless steel futures prices will also fluctuate and adjust [9] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary Nickel - **Weekly Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai nickel rose first and then fell, with a weekly gain of +2.54% and an amplitude of 7.33%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 135,190 yuan/ton [9] - **Market Outlook**: The US existing - home sales in January were lower than expected. The import of nickel ore in the Philippines is expected to decline due to the rainy season. Indonesia plans to cut the RKAB quota significantly next year, and the raw material supply is expected to shrink in the second quarter. The production quota of the world's largest nickel mine, Weda Bay Nickel Mine, will be significantly lower than that in 2025. The production of nickel iron in Indonesia remains high, and the amount flowing back to China is expected to increase. The domestic refined nickel production capacity is large, and the production profit has room for improvement, so the output of refined nickel is expected to rise again. The demand from stainless steel mills and the new - energy vehicle industry is increasing. Both domestic and overseas nickel inventories are increasing. Technically, the position is stable, and the market sentiment is flat [9] Stainless Steel - **Weekly Review**: This week, stainless steel rose first and then fell, with a weekly gain of +1.39% and an amplitude of 4.17%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 13,860 yuan/ton [9] - **Market Outlook**: The raw material supply of domestic nickel - iron plants is tightening, and nickel - iron production will face pressure to cut production. The production profit of stainless steel mills has improved, but the increase in nickel - iron prices has raised the cost. The end - of - year maintenance of steel mills increases, and the output growth is limited. The downstream demand is turning to the off - season, but the export volume remains high. As the Spring Festival approaches, the trading atmosphere calms down, and the social inventory of stainless steel begins to accumulate seasonally. Technically, the position decreases, and both long and short positions are cautious [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Price Movement - As of February 13, the closing price of Shanghai nickel was 135,190 yuan/ton, up 3,350 yuan/ton from last week; the closing price of stainless steel was 13,860 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton from last week [15] - As of February 13, the average price of nickel pig iron (1.5 - 1.7%) was 3,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the average price of nickel iron (7 - 10%) in the country was 1,045 yuan/nickel, up 5 yuan/nickel from last week [15] Basis - As of February 13, the spot price of electrolytic nickel was 140,100 yuan/ton, with a basis of 4,910 yuan/ton; the closing price of stainless steel was 14,650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 790 yuan/ton [20] Price Ratio - As of February 13, the price ratio of Shanghai nickel to stainless steel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 9.75, up 0.11 from last week; the price ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.7 yuan/ton, down 0 from last week [27] Net Long Positions - As of February 12, 2026, the net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai nickel was - 52,531 lots, an increase of 6,355 lots from February 6, 2026. The net long position of the top 20 in stainless steel was - 3,583 lots, an increase of 956 lots from February 6, 2026 [31] 3.3 Industrial Chain Conditions Supply Side - **Nickel Ore Inventory and Production Profit**: As of February 6, the nickel ore inventory in major domestic ports was 1,108.53 million tons, a decrease of 63.81 million tons from last week. As of February 13, the production profit of electrowon nickel was - 7,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,600 yuan/ton from last week [39][40] - **Domestic Electrolytic Nickel Production and Import**: In December 2025, the electrolytic nickel production was 29,058 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.16%. In December 2025, the import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 23,861.23 tons, a year - on - year increase of 85.83%. From January to December, the cumulative import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 233,105.581 tons, a year - on - year increase of 133.4% [43] - **Exchange Inventories**: As of February 13, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 58,775 tons, an increase of 1,318 tons from last week. As of February 13, the LME nickel inventory was 286,386 tons, an increase of 2,238 tons from last week [51] Demand Side - **Stainless Steel Production and Export**: In January 2026, the total output of stainless crude steel was 3.5364 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.46%. Among them, the output of 400 - series stainless steel was 645,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.64%; the output of 300 - series stainless steel was 1.8581 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.35%; the output of 200 - series stainless steel was 1.0331 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.85%. In December 2025, the stainless steel import volume was 141,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,300 tons; the export volume was 404,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 71,300 tons. From January to February, the cumulative net import volume was - 2.7324 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 262,900 tons [55] - **Regional Stainless Steel Inventory**: As of February 13, the stainless steel inventory in Foshan was 304,983 tons, an increase of 19,938 tons from last week; the stainless steel inventory in Wuxi was 531,769 tons, an increase of 15,626 tons from last week [60] - **Stainless Steel Production Profit**: As of February 13, the stainless steel production profit was 89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from last week [64] - **Related Industries**: In 2025, the real estate industry showed a weak downward trend, with the new - construction area, completion area, and development investment all decreasing year - on - year. In December 2025, the output of air conditioners decreased year - on - year, while the output of household refrigerators and freezers increased year - on - year, and the output of washing machines decreased year - on - year. In January 2026, the production of new - energy vehicles was flat year - on - year, and the sales decreased year - on - year. In December 2025, the output of excavators and large - and medium - sized tractors increased year - on - year, while the output of small tractors decreased year - on - year [68][72]

Group 1: US-Israel Meeting and Iran's Position - The closed-door meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and US President Trump lasted about three hours, focusing on the potential for a US-Iran agreement and the need for a joint action plan if negotiations fail [2] - Both sides expressed skepticism about reaching an agreement with Iran, emphasizing Israel's security needs and the importance of ensuring Iran cannot obtain nuclear weapons [2] - Iran reiterated its stance on nuclear negotiations, stating it has not received specific proposals from the US and warned of retaliation against US military bases in the region if attacked [3][4] Group 2: Military Movements and Defense Enhancements - The US military is preparing for potential action against Iran, with plans to deploy a second aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East and increase military aircraft presence in various bases [6] - Israel is enhancing its domestic defense capabilities, having completed complex tests of the "David's Sling" medium-range defense system, marking a significant technical and operational breakthrough [6] Group 3: Nickel Market Dynamics - Indonesia's nickel production quota for this year is expected to be between 260 million to 270 million tons, slightly above market expectations but nearly a 30% reduction compared to the 379 million tons quota for 2025 [11] - Following this announcement, nickel prices surged over 4%, indicating a strong market response and a return of investment interest [12] - Analysts suggest that if Indonesia does not increase its production quota, a supply gap may emerge in the nickel market, potentially raising costs and exacerbating structural imbalances in the industry [12][13] Group 4: Future Outlook for Nickel - The market is expected to remain in a tight balance regarding nickel supply and demand, with a strong likelihood of continued upward price pressure in the short term [14] - Key factors to monitor include the implementation of Indonesian policies and the impact of seasonal weather patterns on nickel supply from the Philippines and Indonesia [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the long - term, the raw material supply of nickel is expected to be tight, but the supply in the first quarter is expected to be relatively loose. The impact of supply - tightness needs to be determined by the conduction process [3]. - The production of nickel iron in Indonesia remains at a high level, and the quantity flowing back to China is expected to increase. The domestic refined nickel production capacity is large, and with the recent rise in nickel prices and the repair of profits, the production of refined nickel is expected to rise again [3]. - On the demand side, the cost of nickel iron for stainless steel has decreased, the profit of steel mills has improved, and the production volume is expected to remain high. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to rise, and the ternary battery contributes a small increase in demand [3]. - The domestic nickel inventory is on an upward trend, and the market mainly makes purchases on price dips. The spot premium is at a high level, and the overseas LME inventory continues to increase [3]. - Technically, with the decline in positions and price adjustments, there are large differences between long and short positions, and there is resistance above. It is expected that the Shanghai nickel will mainly have wide - range adjustments in the short - term, and the price range to be concerned about is 136,000 - 148,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 142,320 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 970 yuan/ton. The spread between the 02 - 03 contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 210 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton [3]. - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 17,792 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 798 US dollars/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 83,210 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 14,515 lots [3]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 61,562 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 8,295 lots. The inventory of LME nickel is 285,732 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 450 tons [3]. - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 48,180 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,530 tons. The cancelled warrants of LME nickel total 13,098 tons, with no change [3]. - The number of warrants of Shanghai nickel is 41,798 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 187 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 145,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,450 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metal Market is 146,100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,350 yuan/ton [3]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no change [3]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 33,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 250 yuan/ton. The basis of the main NI contract is 3,580 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,420 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 187.95 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 333.95 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 134.33 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,273.38 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 46.39 million tons [3]. - The average import unit price of nickel ore is 72.18 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 14.84 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly production of ferronickel is 22,100 metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 800 metal tons [3]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 12,840.49 tons, with an increase of 2,900.84 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 895,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 97,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 538,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 38,300 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 1,761,700 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The leaders of China and Canada issued a joint statement. Canadian Prime Minister Carney announced the import of 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles, and the tax rate will be reduced from 100% to 6.1% [3]. - Trump said that starting from February 1st, tariffs will be imposed on eight European countries until "Greenland is completely acquired". The EU countries are considering imposing counter - tariffs on 93 billion euros of US goods exported to Europe, and Canada is considering sending troops to Greenland [3]. - The hottest candidate for the Fed Chairman has changed. Trump hopes that Hassett will continue to serve as a White House advisor. Reports say that Riddell of BlackRock has a growing call to run for the Fed Chairman, and he had a smooth meeting with Trump on Thursday [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The outer market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, oscillating near the previous top of the trading range. The change in Indonesian quotas may affect raw material supply. Some production capacities have recently cut production, reducing supply pressure. In the long - term, the supply is expected to be loose. The overall demand for nickel is only slightly boosted by the good production and sales data of new energy vehicles. The conclusion is that Shanghai Nickel 2602 will run near the previous top of the trading range, with a slightly stronger oscillation. For the medium - and long - term, it is advisable to short on rebounds [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel has slightly increased. The short - term nickel ore price is stable, and the cost line is stable. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased. Stainless Steel 2602 is expected to run with a slightly stronger oscillation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Overview - **Nickel**: On December 23, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 123,440, up 2,180 from the previous day; the price of LME Nickel was 15,640, up 380. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 125,250, up 3,450; the price of 1 Jinchuan Nickel was 128,750, up 3,625; the price of 1 imported nickel was 122,250, up 3,425; the price of nickel beans was 124,300, up 3,425 [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: On December 23, the price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,905, up 55 from the previous day. The price of cold - rolled coil 304*2B in Wuxi remained unchanged at 13,500, while in Foshan it was up 100 to 13,500 [10]. 3.2 Inventory - **Nickel**: As of December 23, LME nickel inventory was 254,604, an increase of 216; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 38,621, a decrease of 301. The total inventory was 293,225, a decrease of 85 [13]. - **Stainless Steel**: As of December 23, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 47,705, a decrease of 607. As of December 19, the national stainless - steel inventory was 1.0421 million tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons compared to the previous period [16][17]. 3.3 Raw Material Prices - **Nickel Ore**: On December 23, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 55 dollars per wet ton, and the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 29 dollars per wet ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous day. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 8.5 dollars per ton, and to Tianjin Port was 9.5 dollars per ton, also remaining unchanged [21]. - **Nickel Iron**: On December 23, the price of high - nickel iron (8 - 12) was 890 yuan per nickel point, up 3.5 from the previous day; the price of low - nickel iron (below 2) was 3,250 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged [21]. 3.4 Production Cost - **Stainless Steel**: The traditional production cost was 12,658, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,021, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,647 [23]. 3.5 Import Cost The calculated import price of nickel was 124,930 yuan per ton [25].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views For Shanghai Nickel - Last week, nickel prices rebounded, with manufacturers showing some reluctance to sell and traders remaining cautious in purchasing. Some production capacities have reduced recently, leading to a shortage of certain supplies. The price of nickel ore is firm, and ocean freight rates remain unchanged. The RKAB quota in Indonesia for 2026 is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating a loose supply outlook. The price of nickel iron shows signs of stabilizing, with most remaining stable and a small portion still declining. The cost line remains stable. Stainless steel inventory has increased, and demand remains weak. Refined nickel inventory remains at a high level, and the oversupply situation persists. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, the overall boost to nickel demand is limited. The basis is positive, but inventory, the market trend, and the main positions all suggest a bearish outlook. The Shanghai Nickel 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and for the medium - to - long - term, it is advisable to sell on rebounds [2]. For Stainless Steel - The spot price of stainless steel has slightly decreased. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is firm, ocean freight rates are unchanged, and the price of nickel iron has stopped falling with most remaining stable, so the cost line remains stable. Stainless steel inventory has increased. The basis is positive, inventory is neutral, and the market trend is bearish. The Stainless Steel 2601 contract is expected to be under pressure below the 20 - day moving average and operate weakly [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Nickel Futures**: On November 28, the Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 117,010, up 110 from the previous day; the LME nickel closed at 14,820, down 20. Among spot nickel, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 119,500, up 500; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 121,900, up 600; 1 imported nickel was 117,550, up 500; and nickel beans were 119,600, up 500 [10]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,355 on November 28, down 55 from the previous day. Among spot stainless steel, the average price of cold - rolled 304*2B in different regions showed little change, with some prices remaining stable and a small decline in Foshan [10]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of November 28, the LME nickel inventory was 254,760 tons, a decrease of 690 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 33,309 tons, a decrease of 239 tons. The total inventory was 288,069 tons, a decrease of 929 tons [13]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On November 28, the inventory in Wuxi was 579,400 tons, in Foshan was 355,900 tons, and the national inventory was 1,086,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,400 tons. The inventory of the 300 - series was 669,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,400 tons. The stainless steel warehouse receipts were 63,119 tons, a decrease of 354 tons [16][17]. Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - The price of laterite nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% remained at 57 US dollars per wet ton, and with Ni0.9% remained at 29 US dollars per wet ton on November 28. Ocean freight rates from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) was 883 yuan per nickel point, down 1 yuan, and the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) remained at 3,200 yuan per ton [20]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,473 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 12,768 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel iron and pure nickel was 16,248 yuan [22]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 118,722 yuan per ton [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Report Core Views Copper - Copper prices strengthened due to improved market risk appetite after China and the US agreed to conduct economic and trade consultations. In the short - term, China - US talks boosted market sentiment, the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet, and the COMEX - LME spread widened. Fundamentally, tight copper ore supply supports prices, and high copper prices moderately suppress downstream demand. The terminal demand has strong resilience. The main contract is expected to be supported at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market remains weak, with supply pressure and weak demand. The futures price is expected to continue to be under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2750 - 2950 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices showed a strong - oscillating trend. With stable supply, resilient demand, and declining inventory, the short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy followed the aluminum price and showed a strong - oscillating trend. Cost support is prominent, but high inventory and policy uncertainty restrict price increases. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating pattern, with the main contract in the range of 20200 - 20800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Due to concerns about the LME zinc market squeeze and China - US economic and trade consultations, the Shanghai zinc price rebounded. The supply is loose, and the demand is not outstanding. The short - term price may rise due to macro - drivers but will likely oscillate without a clear inflection point in the supply - loose logic, with the main contract in the range of 21800 - 22800 [8]. Tin - Tin supply is tight, and demand is weak. The tin price continues to oscillate at a high level. If the supply in Myanmar recovers smoothly in the fourth quarter, the tin price may weaken; otherwise, it is expected to continue to run strongly [10]. Nickel - The nickel market is in a state of high - level oscillation. Macro - factors are temporarily stable, and the cost has support, but inventory accumulation restricts the upside space. The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 120000 - 126000 [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed a low - level upward repair. Macro - factors may bring policy expectations. The supply pressure is increasing, and demand improvement is not obvious. The short - term market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 12600 - 13000 [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market showed a significant upward trend. The supply - demand gap exists in the peak season, and demand is optimistic. The short - term market is expected to run strongly, with the main contract in the range of 76000 - 82000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 85490 yuan/ton, up 0.63% [1]. - The refined - scrap price difference increased by 7.02% to 3366 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and imports increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 21040 yuan/ton, up 0.29% [3]. - Alumina prices in various regions showed a downward trend [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price rose to 21200 yuan/ton, up 0.47% [4]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22100 yuan/ton, up 0.91% [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and imports decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased to 280000 yuan/ton, down 0.36% [10]. Fundamental Data - In September, tin ore imports decreased by 15.13% to 8714, and SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10510 [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price rose to 122150 yuan/ton, up 0.04% [12]. Fundamental Data - China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32200 in September, and imports decreased by 3.00% to 17010 [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained at 13000 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 companies) increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and Indonesia's production increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 74800 yuan/ton, up 0.61% [16]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87260, and demand increased by 12.28% to 116801 [16].

General Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: October 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team, including researchers Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] Report's Core View - On the 10th, Shanghai nickel rose and then fell. The main contract 2511 reached a maximum of 124,880, then followed the sector down, closing at 122,180, a 0.76% drop from the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 to 2,300, and the spot premium of domestic electrodeposited nickel was reported at -150 - 200. The average price of 8 - 12% high-nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 954.5 yuan per nickel point, while the average price of battery-grade nickel sulfate increased by 70 to 28,320 yuan per ton. Policy changes in the Indonesian mining sector and strengthened regulatory activities have made the support at the nickel ore end stronger again. After the holiday, Shanghai nickel turned up, but the fundamental surplus of primary nickel has not changed substantially, and the nickel price is still under pressure above. The rebound space should be viewed with caution, and attention should be paid to overseas market changes. The lower support has moved up to the 120,000 level [7] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 10th, the main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel reached a maximum of 124,880, then followed the sector down, closing at 122,180, a 0.76% drop from the previous day [7] - The average premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 to 2,300, and the spot premium of domestic electrodeposited nickel was reported at -150 - 200 [7] - The average price of 8 - 12% high-nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 954.5 yuan per nickel point, while the average price of battery-grade nickel sulfate increased by 70 to 28,320 yuan per ton [7] - Policy changes in the Indonesian mining sector and strengthened regulatory activities have made the support at the nickel ore end stronger again. The new RKAB regulations have changed from a three-year batch to a one-year batch, and the mining quotas for 2026 obtained by some enterprises have been invalidated. The Indonesian government has also taken over more than 148 hectares of mining areas in the Wedabay Industrial Park, affecting no more than 1.2 million wet tons of nickel ore production, and ordered 190 mining companies that have not paid reclamation deposits to suspend production for up to 60 days, with an estimated volume of about 3 million wet tons [7] - The entry of the world's second-largest copper mine into force majeure has triggered concerns about global metal supply. After the holiday, Shanghai nickel turned up, but the fundamental surplus of primary nickel has not changed substantially, and the nickel price is still under pressure above. The rebound space should be viewed with caution, and attention should be paid to overseas market changes. The lower support has moved up to the 120,000 level [7] Industry News - SMM expects the HPM of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore to rise slightly in the second half of October, with a projected month-on-month increase of 0.27%. The HMA in the second half of October is 15,142 US dollars per dry ton, an increase of 40 US dollars per dry ton [10] - The HPM prices of nickel ore with different grades in the second half of October have all increased slightly compared to the first half of the month. For example, the HPM price of 1.2% nickel ore is 15.35 US dollars per wet ton, an increase of 0.04 US dollars per wet ton [10][12] - The Indonesian forest law enforcement task force will conduct a centralized rectification of mines. The task force has previously taken similar actions in the palm oil industry, taking over 3.3 million hectares of illegal plantations. The prosecutor said that the focus of this action is to regain national control over forests, and enterprises need to return illegal profits to the state. Some cases may further enter criminal investigations [11] - FPX Nickel announced its active participation in two important sustainable development initiatives in 2025, joining the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) and signing the United Nations Global Compact, demonstrating its commitment to responsible mineral exploration and project development [11] - The central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, said at a press conference that regarding the financial reform content of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the next step, further communication will be made after the central government's unified deployment. Currently, China's financial system is generally stable, and the financial market is operating smoothly. When responding to the Fed's interest rate cut, he said that multiple monetary policy tools will be comprehensively applied to ensure sufficient liquidity according to the macroeconomic operation and situation changes [12]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The Shanghai nickel price has fallen back to around the 120,000 mark. On the 29th, the main contract 2511 fell 0.61% to 121,100 compared with the previous day. There is still pressure of oversupply for pure nickel, but it is supported by nickel ore and costs at the current position and is hard to fall deeply. Recently, the prices of NPI and nickel sulfate are relatively strong. One should continue to pay attention to the supply-side news from Indonesia, and the bottom support reference for Shanghai nickel has been slightly raised to the 120,000 level. With the long holiday approaching, it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday to control risks [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel fell 0.61% to 121,100 on the 29th compared with the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 50 to 2,300 compared with the previous day, and the premium or discount of domestic electrowon nickel was reported at -100 - 200. The average price of 8 - 12% high-nickel pig iron decreased by 0.5 to 954.5 yuan per nickel point compared with the previous day, and the average price of battery-grade nickel sulfate increased by 60 to 28,260 yuan per ton compared with the previous day [7] - Indonesia will start the approval work for 2026 in October. The adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle may still disrupt the supply of nickel ore at the beginning of next year. Some smelters may stock up in advance in the fourth quarter to lock in nickel ore inventory. It is expected that the price of nickel ore will not fall deeply this year and may rise slightly. NPI remains strong supported by costs and the expectation of demand recovery, but the improvement space for the stainless steel terminal is limited. The profit of nickel-iron enterprises has recovered significantly, and the subsequent upward space may be limited. The price of nickel salts remains strong supported by the pre-holiday stocking demand [7] - It is recommended to hold a light position during the long holiday to control risks [7] Group 5: Industry News - The Democratic Republic of the Congo is considering extending the cobalt export ban for at least two months. The mining department's decision needs to be approved by the presidential palace. It is expected that an official document will be issued this Sunday or next Monday. This news will boost the sentiment of the MHP cobalt coefficient and may drive up its price. If the ban is confirmed to be extended, it is expected that the inventory of smelting enterprises will remain below the safety level [8][10] - China's central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said that the details of the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the next financial reform will be further communicated after the central government's unified deployment. Currently, China's financial system is generally stable, and the financial market is operating smoothly. When responding to the Fed's interest rate cut, Pan Gongsheng said that multiple monetary policy tools will be comprehensively applied to ensure sufficient liquidity according to the macroeconomic operation and situation changes [10] - Indonesia's forest law enforcement working group announced a concentrated rectification of mines. Previously, the working group took similar actions in the palm oil industry, taking over 3.3 million hectares of illegal plantations. The focus of this action is to regain the state's control over forests, and enterprises need to return illegal profits to the state. Some cases may enter criminal investigations. The seized mines will be temporarily managed by the state-owned enterprise department [10] - FPX Nickel announced its active participation in two important sustainable development initiatives in 2025, demonstrating its commitment to responsible mineral exploration and project development. The company has joined the Mining Association of Canada (MAC) and promised to follow its "Towards Sustainable Mining (TSM)" framework, and also signed up to join the United Nations Global Compact (UN Global Compact) [10]