每日报告 行业 镍日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 30 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 镍观点： 沪镍再度转跌重回 12 万关口附近，29 日主力 2511 较上日下跌 0.61%报 121100。金川镍平均升水较上日下跌 50 报 2300，国产电积镍升贴水报-100-200。 8-12%高镍生铁均价较上日下跌 0.5 至 954.5 元/镍点，电池级硫酸镍均价较上日 上涨 60 至 28260 元/吨。印尼 10 月将开启 26 年审批工作，RKAB 审批周期调整仍 可能对明年初矿端供应形成扰动，部分冶炼厂或在四季度提 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of nickel ore in the fourth quarter still has significant room for release, but attention should be paid to possible policy changes in Indonesia [7]. - The stainless - steel industry in the nickel - iron - stainless - steel chain is supported by nickel - iron prices. The supply side actively reduces production to adjust inventory, but overall, it still faces great pressure. Concerns remain about potential inventory accumulation after holidays [7]. - In the new - energy industry chain, the raw material side is supported by tight supply, but the demand increase may be limited [7]. - For primary nickel, domestic production capacity still has a release plan. After de - stocking in the first half of the year due to some demand stimulation, recent inventory accumulation has begun to appear, dragging down nickel prices. In the fourth quarter, the overall supply of nickel ore, premium, and primary nickel inventory should be focused on. If the supply is loose and primary nickel inventory accumulates, the price center will move further down [7]. - The price range for nickel is expected to be between 105,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Price/Base - spread/Spread/Ratio - Nickel price is affected by factors such as nickel - ore premium, cobalt export ban, inventory changes, and macro - sentiment. The price has experienced fluctuations including over - decline, recovery, and weak - range oscillations [13]. - For nickel base - spreads, spreads, and ratios, relevant charts show historical data trends, which can be used to analyze market conditions [15][17][19]. - For stainless - steel prices, ratios, and spreads, relevant charts show the trends of spot premium, contract spreads, and the ratio of nickel to stainless - steel, providing a basis for price analysis [23][25][27]. 3.2 Inventory - **Nickel**: LME nickel inventory has been continuously increasing, exceeding 230,000 tons by the end of September, reaching the highest level in recent years, with significant Chinese brand deliveries. The inventory accumulation of Shanghai nickel is relatively less obvious, with the current social inventory at around 40,000 tons [9][30]. - **Stainless - steel**: The supply side actively reduces production to adjust inventory levels. The current stainless - steel inventory has decreased to around 980,000 tons, with the 300 - series dropping to 620,000 tons [9][33][37]. 3.3 Nickel Ore - **Policy**: Indonesia has strengthened the role of the "government's hand" through systems such as SIMBARA and MOMS, and adjusted nickel - product royalties. The Philippines' plan to ban nickel - ore exports was revoked in mid - June [40][41]. - **Supply and Demand**: From January to August 2025, China's nickel - ore imports increased by 7% year - on - year to 26.1335 million wet tons, and port inventory was about 9.71 million wet tons. By the end of September, the premium of Indonesian nickel ore was 24 - 25 US dollars/wet ton [5][44]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: Refined - nickel production capacity has been continuously expanding, with a monthly production capacity of around 54,000 tons by the end of August. The production using externally sourced raw materials is mostly unprofitable, while integrated MHP production is profitable. From January to August, the cumulative production increased by about 26% year - on - year to 260,000 tons. The cumulative imports increased by 178% year - on - year to 159,000 tons, exports increased by 69% year - on - year to 122,000 tons, and net imports were 37,000 tons [5][47]. - **Demand**: Apparent consumption has increased significantly year - on - year, exports have slowed down, and the domestic electroplating demand has increased relatively obviously [50]. - **Balance**: With the continuous release of production capacity and the weakening of internal - external price differences, the surplus has expanded [9]. 3.5 Nickel - Iron - Stainless - Steel - **Supply**: Affected by the rising nickel - ore prices and average stainless - steel demand, the nickel - iron smelting profit has been squeezed, and the domestic operating rate has continued to decline. From January to August, the cumulative production decreased by 8% year - on - year to 20,000 nickel tons. The nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia has slightly expanded, and production has been continuously released, with the cumulative production from January to August increasing by 17% year - on - year to 1.113 million nickel tons [5][53]. - **Production and Sales of Stainless - Steel**: From January to August, China's cumulative stainless - steel production increased by 6% year - on - year to 26.33 million tons, and Indonesia's cumulative production increased by 4% year - on - year to 3.23 million tons. From January to August, cumulative imports decreased by 23% year - on - year to 1.02 million tons, cumulative exports increased by 3% year - on - year to 3.36 million tons, and net exports were 2.35 million tons. From January to August, stainless - steel consumption increased by 3% year - on - year to 22.115 million tons [5][6][58]. - **Profit**: Nickel - iron prices first declined and then rose, but generally remained at a low level in the past three years. Chromium - iron prices have strengthened periodically since the beginning of the year, and the theoretical immediate profit has been mostly in the red [61]. 3.6 New Energy - **Raw Materials**: The marginal production scheduling of ternary materials has increased, and the cobalt ban has boosted the demand for MHP, with the spot price strengthening. From January to August, the supply of Indonesian MHP increased by 56% year - on - year to 285,000 nickel tons, and the high - grade nickel matte production decreased by 38% year - on - year to 115,000 nickel tons. From January to August, MHP imports increased by 20% year - on - year to 220,000 nickel tons, and nickel - matte imports decreased by 12% year - on - year to 270,000 tons. From January to August, domestic nickel - sulfate production decreased by 16% year - on - year to 210,000 nickel tons, and imports increased by 7% year - on - year to 160,000 tons [5][10][78]. - **Production**: In 2025, from January to September, the production of ternary precursors was basically flat year - on - year at 620,000 tons; from January to September, the cumulative production of ternary materials increased by 11% year - on - year to 567,000 tons; from January to August, the production of ternary power cells increased by 16% year - on - year to 242 GWh, the production of ternary batteries increased by 15% year - on - year to 255.7 GWh, the installed capacity decreased by 10% year - on - year to 77.3 GWh, and the inventory decreased slightly compared to the beginning of the year to 30.34 GWh [6][10][90].

Group 1 - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) saw its stock price increase by over 25%, currently trading at 1.78 HKD with a transaction volume of 55.9 million HKD [1] - The company reported a mid-year revenue of approximately 1.118 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of about 4.9% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 71.6 million CNY, showing a significant year-on-year decline of about 50.2% [1] Group 2 - During the reporting period, the company produced 6,030 tons of electrolytic nickel, which is an increase of approximately 26.7% year-on-year [1] - Sales of electrolytic nickel reached 5,672 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of approximately 29.6% [1] - The production of cathode copper was 3,815 tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of about 7.0%, while sales of cathode copper increased by 51.6% to 4,559 tons [1] Group 3 - On August 30, the Chinese Embassy in Indonesia reported large-scale protests in cities like Jakarta [1] - Guotai Junan Futures indicated that the Indonesian government might shorten the RKAB approval cycle from three years to one year, urging companies to resubmit their 2026 RKAB budgets by October 2025 [1] - Potential delays in approvals or nickel ore replenishment actions could limit the downward price pressure on nickel in the second half of the year, providing high price support from the mining sector [1]

Group 1 - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) saw its stock price increase by over 25%, currently trading at 1.78 HKD with a transaction volume of approximately 55.9 million HKD [1] - The company reported a mid-year revenue of approximately 1.118 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of about 4.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 71.6 million RMB, a decline of about 50.2% year-on-year [1] - During the period, the group produced 6,030 tons of electrolytic nickel, an increase of approximately 26.7% year-on-year, and sold 5,672 tons, an increase of approximately 29.6% year-on-year [1] Group 2 - The group produced 3,815 tons of cathode copper, a decrease of approximately 7.0% year-on-year, while sales of cathode copper reached 4,559 tons, an increase of approximately 51.6% year-on-year [1] - There are ongoing large-scale protests in Jakarta and other cities in Indonesia, which may impact the nickel market sentiment [1] - Guotai Junan Futures indicated that the Indonesian government might shorten the RKAB approval cycle from three years to one year, which could affect nickel prices and supply dynamics in the second half of the year [1]

Group 1 - Nickel prices have recently declined due to the Philippines' decision to remove the export ban on raw minerals, which has impacted market sentiment and led to a drop in prices [1] - The Philippines aims to promote domestic mining development by implementing a mineral export ban similar to Indonesia's, but the current weak demand in stainless steel and new energy sectors has dampened investment motivation [1][2] - Indonesia has become the largest producer of nickel globally, and its new nickel mining quota approval policy has slowed down the approval process, affecting market dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the recent drop in nickel prices, the supply of nickel ore remains tight due to seasonal weather impacts in both Indonesia and the Philippines, which has kept prices relatively high [3][4] - Domestic nickel iron smelting plants are experiencing losses, leading to reduced production and a decline in procurement demand [4][5] - The production of nickel intermediate products, particularly MHP, is expected to increase, which may lead to a further decline in cost levels in the industry [7][9] Group 3 - The demand for refined nickel has shown positive growth, particularly driven by the emerging need for pre-plated nickel materials in battery production, which is expected to create a significant supply-demand gap [13] - Traditional demand from stainless steel production is weakening, with notable reductions in output and a slower pace of inventory depletion [14][15] - The overall supply tightness in nickel ore and intermediate products is expected to provide cost support for nickel prices, although weak terminal demand may limit price increases [17]