Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Atour Group with a target price of $51.2 [4][5]. Core Insights - Atour Group is positioned as a mid-to-high-end hotel chain, integrating lifestyle retail into the guest experience, with significant revenue growth and strong profit margins [2][12]. - The company has seen robust growth in both hotel and retail segments, with a projected net profit of RMB 16.2 billion, RMB 20.6 billion, and RMB 25.0 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][10]. - The membership system has expanded significantly, with membership numbers growing from 25 million in 2020 to over 100 million by September 2025, enhancing customer retention and reducing acquisition costs [2][55]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Atour Group operates a diverse portfolio of hotel brands and retail offerings, focusing on high-quality service and unique experiences, with a market share of approximately 6% in the mid-to-high-end hotel sector [12]. - As of September 2025, Atour has 1,948 hotels, predominantly through a franchise model, which enhances profitability and operational efficiency [2][59]. Investment Highlights - **Differentiated Hotel Positioning**: Atour targets a price range of RMB 400-800 per night, avoiding competition in the budget segment while not being fully penetrated by luxury brands [33]. - **Active Membership Ecosystem**: The A-Card membership system has proven effective in driving customer loyalty, with a high repurchase rate of 58.3% in 2022 [51][55]. - **Franchise Model**: The company primarily operates through a franchise model, which allows for rapid expansion with lower capital investment [59]. Industry Analysis - The hotel industry in China is experiencing a strong rebound, with a 38% increase in revenue in 2023, although growth is expected to slow to 5% in 2024 [3]. - The mid-to-high-end market share is increasing, with a trend towards consolidation and multi-brand strategies among leading companies [3]. Financial Performance - Atour's revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 9.73 billion, with a growth rate of 34.3% [10]. - The company has maintained a strong gross margin, with net profit margins expected to stabilize around 16.6% in 2025 [10][20]. Retail Business Growth - The retail segment has seen explosive growth, with revenue increasing from RMB 254 million in 2022 to RMB 2.198 billion in 2024, driven by popular products like the Deep Sleep Pillow [30].

Core Insights - Atour is planning a secondary listing in Hong Kong to raise several hundred million dollars, aiming to find new growth engines amid pressures on its main business and controversies surrounding its pillow retail business [1][6][62] - The company has faced multiple failed IPO attempts since 2019, with three attempts to list on A-shares and one on the US market, primarily due to issues such as data discrepancies in its prospectus [2][4][62] - Despite a significant increase in market capitalization since its successful listing on NASDAQ in 2022, Atour's core hotel business is experiencing growth bottlenecks, with declining average daily rates (ADR) and revenue per available room (RevPAR) [4][12][62] Company Overview - Atour, founded in 2013, has rapidly expanded to become one of China's largest mid-to-high-end hotel chains, with 1,727 operating hotels and over 194,559 rooms as of March 2025 [9][11] - The company operates under a "light asset + strong operation" model, focusing on franchise expansion and diversifying revenue streams beyond room bookings [11][19] - Retail sales, particularly through its proprietary sleep products, have become a significant revenue source, contributing approximately 30% to total income [7][13][19] Financial Performance - In 2023, Atour reported revenues of 4.666 billion RMB and a net profit of approximately 740 million RMB, with a substantial increase in 2024 to 7.248 billion RMB and an adjusted net profit of 1.306 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 72.2% [11][12][19] - The retail segment has shown remarkable growth, with retail revenue reaching 694 million RMB in Q1 2025, a 66.5% increase from the previous year [16][24] - However, the hotel business has faced challenges, with Q1 2025 showing a decline in net profit by 5.5% year-on-year due to falling room prices and occupancy rates [12][19] Market Position and Competition - Atour holds the leading position in China's mid-to-high-end hotel market, but faces intense competition from established players like Jin Jiang and Huazhu, which have significantly larger hotel networks [52][58] - The hotel industry is experiencing a trend of oversupply, leading to pressure on occupancy rates and revenue, which poses a challenge for Atour's growth strategy [60][61] - The company's reliance on retail sales for revenue growth raises concerns about sustainability, especially as competition in the sleep product market intensifies [19][25][62] Challenges and Controversies - Atour has faced several controversies related to service quality and hygiene, including a significant incident involving hospital-labeled pillowcases, which has damaged its brand reputation [35][49][62] - The rapid expansion through franchising has led to inconsistencies in service quality, with increasing customer complaints regarding cleanliness and service standards [31][49][62] - The company must address these operational challenges to maintain customer loyalty and brand integrity in a competitive market [62]