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量价分配再均衡
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【宏观快评】6月经济数据点评:量价分配开启再均衡之路
Huachuang Securities· 2025-07-16 09:03
Economic Growth - GDP growth rate for Q2 is 5.2%, slightly down from 5.4% in Q1, with a cumulative growth rate of 5.3% for the first half of the year[4] - Nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 is 3.9%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.1%[28] - Contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth is 52.3%, up from Q1[30] Price and Volume Imbalance - Contribution rate of volume to nominal GDP growth is 132%, while price contribution is -30.6%, indicating a high level of imbalance[4] - Historical data shows that the current volume contribution rate of 132.1% is the highest among the last seven peaks[14] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment growth rate in June is -0.1%, down from 2.7% in May, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments declining[7] - Consumer spending growth in Q2 is 5.2%, slightly above income growth of 5.1%[32] Employment and Income - Total rural migrant workers is 19.139 million, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7%[6] - Average monthly income for migrant workers in Q2 is up 3.0%, down from 3.3% in Q1[40] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment growth rate in June is -12.9%, with sales area down 5.5% year-on-year[54] - New housing prices in 70 major cities decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, an improvement from a 5.2% decline previously[28]