2025.10. 30 本文字数：1523，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 桐欣 中国人民银行按季度发布的"城镇储户问卷调查报告"被外界认为是居民消费、投资潜力的风向标。 《2025年第三季度城镇储户问卷调查报告》（下称《报告》）显示，倾向于"更多消费"的居民占19.2%，比上 季低4.1个百分点；倾向于"更多储蓄"的居民占62.3%，比上季低1.5个百分点；倾向于"更多投资"的居民占 18.5%，比上季高5.6个百分点。 第一财经梳理近两年的《报告》发现，倾向于"更多储蓄"的占比整体呈上升趋势，从2023年的第一季度的 58%，上升到2025年第三季度的62.3%。这一趋势，与不断高企的居民存款规模形成相互印证。《2025年前三 季度金融统计数据报告》显示，前三季度人民币存款增加22.71万亿元。其中，住户存款增加12.73万亿元。由 此测算，截至2025年第三季度，住户存款规模已达164.03万亿元，同比增速10.2%。 第一财经梳理近两年来的《报告》发现，倾向于"更多投资"的居民占18.5%，这一数据是2023年第二季度以来 的最高值。 近几个月，随着资本市场回暖，居民存款"搬家"到股市，成为备 ...

Economic Growth - GDP growth rate for Q2 is 5.2%, slightly down from 5.4% in Q1, with a cumulative growth rate of 5.3% for the first half of the year[4] - Nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 is 3.9%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.1%[28] - Contribution of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth is 52.3%, up from Q1[30] Price and Volume Imbalance - Contribution rate of volume to nominal GDP growth is 132%, while price contribution is -30.6%, indicating a high level of imbalance[4] - Historical data shows that the current volume contribution rate of 132.1% is the highest among the last seven peaks[14] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment growth rate in June is -0.1%, down from 2.7% in May, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments declining[7] - Consumer spending growth in Q2 is 5.2%, slightly above income growth of 5.1%[32] Employment and Income - Total rural migrant workers is 19.139 million, with a year-on-year growth of 0.7%[6] - Average monthly income for migrant workers in Q2 is up 3.0%, down from 3.3% in Q1[40] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment growth rate in June is -12.9%, with sales area down 5.5% year-on-year[54] - New housing prices in 70 major cities decreased by 4.1% year-on-year, an improvement from a 5.2% decline previously[28]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic performance in the second quarter, highlighting the need for a rebalancing of quantity and price in GDP growth, with a focus on consumer spending and investment control measures [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Growth Analysis - In Q2, GDP growth was 5.2%, slightly down from 5.4% in Q1, while the cumulative growth for the first half of the year was 5.3% [3][19]. - The nominal GDP growth rate for Q2 was 3.9%, with a significant contribution from quantity at 132% and a negative contribution from price at -30.6% [3][19]. - The contribution rates to GDP growth were as follows: final consumption expenditure at 52.3%, capital formation at 24.7%, and net exports at 23% [22]. Group 2: Investment and Consumption Trends - Fixed asset investment growth in June was -0.1%, with manufacturing and infrastructure investment showing declines [4][51]. - Consumer spending in June grew by 4.8%, down from 6.4% in May, with notable declines in restaurant and online shopping growth rates [4][40]. - The average monthly income for migrant workers in Q2 increased by 3.0%, but this was lower than the 3.3% growth in Q1 [31]. Group 3: Rebalancing Measures - The article outlines three key measures for addressing the imbalance between quantity and price: controlling incremental investments, improving corporate cash flow, and enhancing consumer spending willingness [5][12][18]. - The first measure involves strict control over new investments, particularly in the manufacturing sector, where investment growth has been declining [12][13]. - The second measure focuses on improving cash flow for enterprises, with recent data indicating a recovery in corporate deposits [15][6]. - The third measure aims to boost consumer spending through various policies, with consumer inclination slightly increasing to 68.6% in Q2 compared to 68.5% in the previous year [18][25].