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甘源食品(002991):24年报、25Q1点评:难关已过,静待修复
Huaan Securities· 2025-04-20 09:14
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The report indicates that the company has successfully navigated challenges and is now poised for recovery, with a focus on growth through various channels including membership and wholesale supermarkets, as well as overseas markets [2][11] - The company reported a revenue of 5.04 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a decrease of 13.99% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.53 billion yuan, down 42.21% [9] - The report highlights that the company’s revenue from membership and wholesale supermarkets continues to grow, with monthly sales reaching 55 million yuan and 25 million yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 20% and 16% [9] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 22.57 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.18%, and a net profit of 3.76 billion yuan, up 14.32% [9] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was reported at 34.32%, a decline of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising palm oil costs [9] - The company’s net profit margin for Q1 2025 was 10.47%, down 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, with increased sales and management expenses contributing to this decline [9] Growth Forecast - The report projects that the company will achieve total revenues of 26.70 billion yuan, 32.18 billion yuan, and 39.37 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.3%, 20.5%, and 22.3% [11] - The forecasted net profit for the same years is 4.25 billion yuan, 5.16 billion yuan, and 6.32 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 13.0%, 21.4%, and 22.5% [11] Key Financial Metrics - The company’s projected gross margin for 2025 is 35.0%, with a slight decline expected in subsequent years [13] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 21.9% in 2024 to 28.9% by 2027 [13] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 22.59 in 2024 to 11.30 by 2027, indicating a potentially attractive valuation [13]