金价回调风险
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金价持续上涨,追高投资需防“踩雷”
Da Zhong Ri Bao· 2025-09-26 10:07
Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has been on a continuous rise following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with gold futures on COMEX reaching historical highs. The price of spot gold has surged from $2,625 per ounce to over $3,700 per ounce this year, marking an increase of over $1,000 per ounce and a year-to-date gain of 40% [1]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - The domestic gold jewelry price has also risen, surpassing 1,100 yuan per gram for the first time, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Miao Gold reporting prices of 1,108 yuan and 1,106 yuan per gram respectively [3]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au99.99 contract reached a historical high of 856.8 yuan per gram on September 24, with a cumulative increase of nearly 10% since September [3]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The rise in gold prices is primarily driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions, economic recession fears in the U.S., and expectations of interest rate cuts. The ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have further propelled gold prices [4]. - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves, with China's gold reserves rising to 7,402 million ounces as of the end of August, marking the tenth consecutive month of increases [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Risks - Analysts suggest that while gold prices are at historical highs, there may be potential for short-term fluctuations or corrections. The market is advised to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on buying during dips rather than chasing high prices [5]. - The upcoming "Golden Week" holiday in China may introduce uncertainties in the domestic commodity market, with potential for gap openings and basis volatility post-holiday [6].