股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 2月2日，经济学家马光远表示，黄金是这个世界上最烂的投资，这个观点不会因为黄金涨到五千美元就 改变。原因在于黄金在历史上大多数情况表现不佳，而且长期处于熊市。 这一轮黄金上涨的过程中，理由不外乎去美元化、俄乌冲突等地缘风险、央行增持等等。这是任何时候 都可以解释的标准答案。但如果预测黄金未来会涨到10000美元，得告诉大家理由，以及每一个理由的 拉动力。比如，央行未来买黄金能拉动黄金上涨多少，美国打伊朗会上涨多少。但事实上，没有任何一 个机构这么去做，大家都才猜谜，大家都在算命。股市好的时候，遍地是股神，现在是黄金，到处都是 喊涨的算命先生。市场上现在关于黄金能涨到多少，就是算命，就是瞎蒙。 黄金是对未来不确定和风险的定价，而不是对未来收益或者产出的判断。巴菲特从来不碰黄金，就是因 为他认为未来的不确定是很难判断的。因此，不要懊恼错过了黄金白银（核心股）的行情，这本来就属 于不正常的走势，也是超过你的想象和认知的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a significant surge, with both London gold and silver reaching historical highs due to a combination of geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, and expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies [2][4][5]. Market Performance - On January 12, London gold and silver prices peaked at over $4600 per ounce and $84 per ounce, respectively, marking new historical highs [4][5]. - A-share precious metal-related stocks also performed well, with notable increases such as Mingpai Jewelry rising over 10% and Shengda Resources increasing over 8% [4]. Influencing Factors - Geopolitical risks and rising tensions have led to an influx of safe-haven investments into precious metals [5]. - Central banks and global macro funds are increasing their positions, contributing to an imbalance in investment structures [5]. - The ongoing criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, potentially influencing future monetary policy [5]. Central Bank Actions - As of December 31, 2025, China's gold reserves reached 74.15 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from the previous month, marking the 14th consecutive month of increases since November 2024 [4][5]. Future Price Predictions - Analysts predict that gold prices could approach $5000 per ounce and potentially reach $6000 per ounce, while silver could target $90 per ounce, with a possibility of hitting $100 per ounce if it breaks through [6][16]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to engage in precious metal investments through regulated markets and to adopt a strategy of small positions and buying on dips, avoiding high leverage [2][9]. - Financial institutions are warning clients about the risks of blind investments in gold, suggesting a shift in investment classification from conservative to medium-risk products [9][19].

廖博进一步分析，央行增持是金价上行的中期核心逻辑，也是阶段性泡沫化的重要放大器。一旦趋势交 易拥挤，金价对传统因子敏感度下降，对情绪与流动性敏感度则显著上升。在官方买盘支撑形成趋势 后，ETF、资管、对冲资金与私人部门易形成顺趋势跟随，将储备再配置行情放大为更强资产价格波 动。他同时指出，全球央行对白银的外汇储备定位是其长期走势关键变量，从历史经验与当前信号看， 央行对白银储备态度切换的影响或超短期工业需求波动。 关于后续走势，王红英预测，当前支撑贵金属上涨的宏观供求及资金因素仍在发力，在结构性利多格局 下，黄金有望接近5000美元/盎司，甚至冲击6000美元/盎司；白银目标价位看向90美元/盎司，一旦突 破，将进一步向100美元/盎司迈进。 在行情持续升温的同时，交易所及金融机构的风险提示同步跟进。1月12日，上海黄金交易所发布《关 于继续做好近期市场风险控制工作的通知》指出，近期多重因素导致贵金属价格波动显著加剧、不确定 性上升，要求各会员单位密切关注行情变化，细化风险应急预案，维护市场平稳运行，并提示投资者做 好风险防范，合理控制仓位，理性投资。 除了市场价格波动风险，更值得引起警惕的是，一些非法金融骗 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the gold market is influenced by factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, geopolitical risks, and central bank purchases, which support the rise in precious metals prices [4]. - As of November 27, the Shanghai gold spot price was quoted at 941.00 yuan per gram, showing a discount of 6.16 yuan per gram compared to the futures main price of 947.16 yuan per gram [3]. - The international gold price increased by 0.79%, closing at 4162.35 USD per ounce, with a peak of 4173 USD [5]. Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book report indicates that economic activity has remained stable, with some regions reporting slight declines and others slight growth, suggesting a risk of economic slowdown in the coming months [3]. - The U.S. job market shows improvement, with initial jobless claims decreasing by 6,000 to 216,000, the lowest since mid-April, which is below the expected 225,000 [3]. - The medium to long-term bullish trend in gold prices is expected to continue, with potential to rise above 4200 USD after breaking previous resistance levels [6].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The weakening of the US dollar, the increasing probability of a December interest rate cut, and the enhanced expectation of a more dovish "Hassett Fed" policy have led to a continued strong - oscillating pattern for gold and silver. Geopolitical conflicts and energy - chain risks have added additional support. The mid - term upward logic remains unchanged [1]. - The weakening US economic data, including retail sales, consumer confidence, employment, and PPI, has increased the market's bet on a December interest rate cut. The probability of a 25bp cut in December is over 80% according to swap contracts [3]. - Gold's structural support is solid. Central bank gold purchases remain high, physical demand is resilient, and there is a potential marginal inflow in the ETF segment. Since the beginning of the year, gold and silver have risen by over 55% and nearly 80% respectively, driven by the decline in global real interest rates, the weakening of the dollar cycle, and central bank purchases [3]. - If the December interest rate cut is realized and the expectation of Hassett becoming the Fed chair is further strengthened, gold and silver prices may hit the upper limit of the range again, with silver having higher elasticity [3]. Group 2: Key Information - US economic data is weak. Retail sales in September only slightly rebounded, consumer confidence had the largest decline this year, and employment and PPI were also mild. The probability of a December interest rate cut continues to rise [2]. - Tensions in the Middle East have escalated, with multiple night attacks between Israel and Gaza. There is a risk of the local war spreading, and the global risk appetite is suppressed [2]. - The European energy chain faces winter uncertainties. Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian oil and power facilities have made European countries re - evaluate winter gas and power security and discuss additional reserves and supply alternatives [2]. Group 3: Price Outlook - The weekly price ranges are maintained at [4030 - 4200] for London gold and [50 - 55] for London silver [4]. Group 4: Index Information Special Index - The commodity index is 2241.06, up 0.12%; the commodity 20 index is 2543.53, up 0.04%; the industrial products index is 2200.67, up 0.03%; the PPI commodity index is 1336.40, down 0.13% [44]. Sector Index - The precious metals index on November 26, 2025, is up 0.25% today, up 1.28% in the past 5 days, up 4.87% in the past month, and up 52.36% year - to - date [45].

Core Viewpoint - Société Générale predicts that gold prices will rise to $5,000 per ounce, driven by increased demand from ETFs and central banks [1] Group 1 - The forecasted increase in gold prices is attributed to significant inflows into gold ETFs, indicating a growing interest among investors [1] - Central banks are also increasing their gold reserves, contributing to the bullish outlook for gold prices [1] - The combination of ETF demand and central bank purchases is expected to create upward pressure on gold prices in the coming years [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold has recently surged to over $4000 per ounce, reaching a historical high, as investors shift from traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasury bonds to gold due to concerns over the U.S. economy and debt levels [1][3][19] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The traditional view of U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe investment is changing, with investors questioning the reliability of these assets amid rising debt pressures [3][5] - Gold is perceived as a more secure asset since it is not reliant on any country's credit, providing a tangible value compared to government-issued debt [5][9] - Various geopolitical factors, including tariffs from the previous U.S. administration and ongoing conflicts, have contributed to increased investment in gold [5][9] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases since 2022, with annual acquisitions exceeding 1000 tons, indicating a long-term strategic shift away from dollar reliance [9][11] - China's central bank has notably increased its gold reserves for 11 consecutive months, reflecting a broader trend among nations to diversify their foreign reserves [11][19] - This sustained demand from central banks acts as a stabilizing force for gold prices, even in the face of potential sell-offs by individual investors [11][19] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Institutional investors are now more bullish on gold, with firms like Goldman Sachs raising their price forecasts for gold significantly, indicating a shift in market sentiment [13][15] - Predictions for gold prices have been adjusted upwards, with estimates reaching as high as $4900 by the end of 2026, driven by continuous inflows of capital [15][19] - The positive outlook for gold has also positively impacted other precious metals like silver and palladium, which have seen substantial price increases this year [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has been on a continuous rise following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with gold futures on COMEX reaching historical highs. The price of spot gold has surged from $2,625 per ounce to over $3,700 per ounce this year, marking an increase of over $1,000 per ounce and a year-to-date gain of 40% [1]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - The domestic gold jewelry price has also risen, surpassing 1,100 yuan per gram for the first time, with major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Miao Gold reporting prices of 1,108 yuan and 1,106 yuan per gram respectively [3]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au99.99 contract reached a historical high of 856.8 yuan per gram on September 24, with a cumulative increase of nearly 10% since September [3]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The rise in gold prices is primarily driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets due to geopolitical tensions, economic recession fears in the U.S., and expectations of interest rate cuts. The ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have further propelled gold prices [4]. - Central banks globally have been increasing their gold reserves, with China's gold reserves rising to 7,402 million ounces as of the end of August, marking the tenth consecutive month of increases [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Risks - Analysts suggest that while gold prices are at historical highs, there may be potential for short-term fluctuations or corrections. The market is advised to adopt a cautious approach, focusing on buying during dips rather than chasing high prices [5]. - The upcoming "Golden Week" holiday in China may introduce uncertainties in the domestic commodity market, with potential for gap openings and basis volatility post-holiday [6].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with the non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) experiencing a significant jump, reflecting strong performance since its low point in April 2023, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) saw a peak intraday increase of 2.7% and is currently up 1.8% [1] - Since the low on April 8, 2023, the ETF has risen by 55.21%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite (24.45%) and CSI 300 (27.21%) [1] - The top six constituents of the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index are all copper industry leaders, with notable gains from Northern Copper and Luoyang Molybdenum [1][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A landslide at the Grasberg copper mine, the world's second-largest, has halted production, with Freeport estimating a 35% drop in copper and gold output for 2026 and a return to pre-accident production levels not expected until 2027 [3] - Short-term factors such as tariff suspensions and supply disruptions are expected to support copper prices, while long-term demand from home appliance subsidies and increased investment in power grids may further elevate price levels [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Huabao Fund suggests increasing allocation to the non-ferrous sector, as the economic recovery's impact on cyclical goods has yet to be fully realized [3] - CITIC Construction anticipates that domestic policies aimed at optimizing production factors will enhance profitability across the supply chain, benefiting metal prices [3] Group 4: Sector Composition - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide diversified exposure to various metals, with copper, aluminum, rare earths, gold, and lithium comprising 25.3%, 14.2%, 13.8%, 13.6%, and 7.6% of the index, respectively [5]