行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 26 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美联储主席鲍威尔在 Jackson-Hole 全球央行年会上终于调整货币政策前瞻 指引，年内首次明确支持美联储重启降息进程，美元指数大跌至 97.8 附近而全球 股市和大宗商品受到提振，伦敦金银分别反弹至 3370 和 38.9 美元/盎司附近。特 朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局加速重组且进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得 到极大提振；目前看黄金波动性上升但中线上涨趋势保持良好，伦敦黄金或在 3120-3500 美元/盎司之间宽幅震荡整固后再次上涨，建 ...

黄金如何择时？20250825 黄金的定价逻辑主要受到实际利率和避险需求的影响。传统上，由于美元作为 世界货币，持有美元可以获得利息，而黄金作为不生息资产，其价格受实际利 率驱动。如果实际利率高，投资者更倾向于持有债券或存款而非黄金。然而， 自 2008 年金融危机后，美联储及其他央行实施量化宽松政策（QE），导致美 元超发，美国联邦政府债务显著上升。这引发了市场对美元信用风险的担忧。 特别是在 2022 年俄乌冲突后，美国对俄罗斯实施一系列制裁，包括冻结其资 产，使全球投资者开始质疑持有美元的安全性，从而推动了黄金作为避险资产 的需求，即便美债收益率较高，黄金价格仍然上涨。这表明在当前环境下，避 险价值相较于机会成本更具主导性。此外，美联储主席鲍威尔近期发表鸽派言 论，但短期内难以改变美元信用下行趋势。 从微观角度来看，金价主要受哪些因素驱动？ 从微观角度来看，金价主要受供需结构影响。全球黄金总储量相对稳定，每年 生产量也固定，因此金价更多受到需求波动影响。具体来说： 1. 工业需求：由于黄金具有独特特性，在某些工业领域必不可少，但其高 昂成本限制了使用范围，因此工业需求变化量不大，不是金价核心驱动 力。 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 22 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美国联邦住房金融局局长举报美联储理事 Lisa Cook 涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈，特 朗普迅速表态要求 Cook 立即辞职，这是特朗普政府试图施压美联储降息的最新尝 试，也再次引发市场关于美国财政金融纪律的担忧，避险需求推动伦敦黄金反弹 至 3340 美元/盎司附近，但美联储 7 月议息会议纪要显示大部分决策官员更担忧 通胀前景限制金价涨幅。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局加速重组且进入乱纪 元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提振；目前看黄金波动性上 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shanghai gold and silver main contracts closed slightly higher, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation during the session. Trump pressured Fed officials again, which may marginally affect the US dollar's credit and support the safe - haven demand for gold. The precious metals market was pressured by the spill - over effect of steel and aluminum tariffs, mainly driven by market sentiment. The market is currently focused on the cease - fire expectation between Russia and Ukraine and the expected trading around the Fed's interest - rate cut at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday. If Powell further releases hawkish signals, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields may continue to rebound, putting pressure on the upward movement of gold prices. In the short term, if there is no significant progress in the geopolitical situation, the precious metals market is expected to continue to oscillate within a range. In the medium term, interest - rate cuts will provide strong bottom support for gold prices. If the Russia - Ukraine negotiations make substantial progress, it may further release the callback pressure on gold prices; otherwise, it may increase the demand for safe - haven buying. Operationally, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for gold in the short term and focus on short - term rebound trading opportunities for silver. The focus range for the Shanghai gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver 2510 contract is 9000 - 9200 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Shanghai gold main contract closing price (daily, yuan/gram): 775.12, up 2.44; Shanghai silver main contract closing price (daily, yuan/kilogram): 9162, up 120 - Main contract positions: Shanghai gold (daily, lots): 183215, down 8259; Shanghai silver (daily, lots): 307098, down 11580 - Net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract (daily, lots): 162201, up 1447; Net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract (daily, lots): 116447, up 2105 - Warehouse receipt quantity: Gold (daily, kilograms): 36642, up 60; Silver (daily, kilograms): 1115055, down 25144 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price (daily, yuan/gram): 773.25, up 4.55; Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price (daily, yuan/kilogram): 9143, up 117 - Basis of Shanghai gold main contract (daily, yuan/gram): - 1.87, up 2.11; Basis of Shanghai silver main contract (daily, yuan/kilogram): - 19, down 3 [3] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings (daily, tons): 962.21, down 3.15; Silver ETF holdings (daily, tons): 15339.66, down 16.94 - Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions (weekly, contracts): 229485, down 7565; Silver CTFC non - commercial net positions (weekly, contracts): 44268, down 6390 - Total gold supply (quarterly, tons): 1313.01, up 54.84; Total silver supply (annually, million troy ounces): 987.8, down 21.4 - Total gold demand (quarterly, tons): 1313.01, up 54.83; Total global silver demand (annually, million ounces): 1195, down 47.4 [3] 3.4 Option Market - Historical volatility: 20 - day for gold (daily, %): 10.17, down 0.53; 40 - day for gold (daily, %): 10.6, up 0.12 - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold (daily, %): 16.54, down 0.82; Implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold (daily, %): 16.55, down 0.81 [3] 3.5 Industry News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates in July, with only two opposing. There were differences among Fed officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation, but most believed the risk of rising inflation was higher than the risk of falling employment. - US President Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign immediately, increasing pressure on the Fed. The FHFA Director Pult accused Cook of fraud in two mortgages and called on the Justice Department to investigate. - The CRFB's latest forecast showed that due to tax, spending legislation, and tariff policies, the US federal budget deficit will reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade, nearly $1 trillion higher than the CBO's January forecast. - ECB President Lagarde said that the euro - zone economic growth may slow down this quarter. Although the recent agreement with the US reduced uncertainty, the global trade situation remains unclear [3]

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 21 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 俄乌战争停火前景削弱贵金属的避险需求，同时市场预计美联储主席鲍威尔 可能不会在周末 Jackson-Hole 全球央行年会上对第二阶段降息步伐给出清晰指 引，美元指数反弹至 98.3 而伦敦黄金回调至 3320 美元/盎司附近，波动性更大的 白银则回撤到 37.2 美元/盎司附近。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局加速重组 且进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提振；目前看黄金波动性上升但中 线上涨趋势保持良好，伦敦黄金或在 3120-35 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 8 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 美股下挫，避险需求上升，市场关 注杰克逊霍尔会议 | | 铜 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 国内旺季临近，产业支撑增强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨日金价在亚洲盘后持续回升，这很大程度上是由 ...

Group 1: Lao Pu Gold - Lao Pu Gold reported a net profit of 2.35 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 12.354 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 251% [1] - The adjusted net profit grew by 290.6% compared to the previous year [1] - The company has established 29 stores in top commercial centers and has a loyal membership base of approximately 480,000, an increase of 130,000 members since the end of last year [1] Group 2: iQIYI - iQIYI's total revenue for the second quarter of 2025 was 6.63 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% year-on-year decline [2] - Membership service revenue accounted for 4.09 billion yuan, while online advertising service revenue was 1.27 billion yuan [2] - The decline in revenue may indicate a shift in the online video industry towards a more competitive landscape [2] Group 3: Pop Mart - Pop Mart plans to expand into emerging markets such as the Middle East and South Asia, while continuing to develop flagship stores in major cities like Paris, Sydney, Milan, and New York [3] - The company expects to have over 200 overseas stores by the end of the year [3] - This strategy reflects Pop Mart's accelerated global expansion and aims to enhance brand exposure and high transaction value conversion [3] Group 4: Amer Sports - Amer Sports reported a 23% year-on-year revenue increase for the second quarter, reaching 1.236 billion USD (approximately 8.878 billion yuan) [4] - Revenue in the Greater China region surged by 42% to 410 million USD [4] - The growth in the Greater China market highlights the strong demand for sports consumption, positioning it as a key growth driver for the company [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has imposed a 50% tariff on 407 types of steel and aluminum derivative products, indicating a deepening of trade protectionism [3] - This policy aims to protect the domestic steel and aluminum industries while posing new challenges to global supply chains and related sectors, affecting a wide range of industries from wind turbines to automotive parts [3] - The tariff policy may serve as a catalyst for adjusting trade relations, prompting countries to reassess their positions within global supply chains [3] Group 2 - The imposition of tariffs is expected to raise inflation expectations, exacerbate trade tensions, and increase economic uncertainty, which overall benefits silver prices [3] - Despite potential short-term pressure from a strengthening dollar, rising safe-haven demand and heightened inflation expectations are likely to drive silver prices higher [3] - In the silver market, key resistance levels are identified in the 8.651-8.800 range, while support levels are noted in the 8.400-8.573 range [4]

一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏弱，沪金主力收跌0.13%，沪银主力收跌0.25%。①核心逻辑，短期贸易协议分批达成，俄乌会谈开启，避险需 求回落；美国经济滞涨风险增加，就业走弱通胀温和，联储降息预期反弹。②避险属性方面，美俄领导人时隔六年首次会晤，特朗 普称"富有成效"，承诺为乌克兰安全提供保障。白宫官员称特朗普已签署行政令，美中关税休战期再延90天。③货币属性方 面，美国7月零售销售强劲增长，美国7月批发价格跳涨，美联储降息路线图增添变数。美国7月PPI环比上涨0.9%，创三年来最大 环比涨幅，涨幅远大于经济学家的预期。美国7月CPI通胀温和，CPI符合预期但核心CPI同比上涨3.1%，高于前值2.9%。目前市场 预期美联储9月降息概率从非农前40%左右快速飙升至80%以上，且年内降息次数预期从1次涨至2到3次。美元指数和美债收益率 遇阻反弹；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币偏强压制国内价格。⑤预计贵金属短期震荡偏弱，中期高位震荡，长 期阶梯上行。 投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年08月19日16时55分 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant fluctuation in gold prices, with a notable increase to approximately $3357 per ounce after a drop to $3323.50 earlier in the day, driven by geopolitical risks [1][2] - Last week, international gold prices experienced a cumulative decline of 3.11%, marking the largest weekly drop since March of this year [1] - The focus of investors has shifted towards the U.S.-Ukraine talks, with geopolitical uncertainty continuing to drive demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset [2] Group 2 - FXStreet's senior analyst Mehta indicates that the next bullish target for gold prices is at last week's high of $3375 per ounce, followed by a target of $3400 per ounce [3]