1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2026, the evolution of the Middle East situation, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals will jointly determine the rhythm of the precious metals market. Geopolitical event - driven impacts may gradually weaken, and prices may return to being driven by monetary policy corrections and fundamentals [1][149]. - The prices of precious metals are expected to bottom out through oscillations in Q2 and gradually recover previous losses. Short - term adjustments do not change the long - term upward trend. However, more data such as the recovery of Fed rate - cut expectations or the acceleration of central bank gold purchases are needed to support the upward drive, and this time window may appear in the second half of Q2 or Q3 [2][150]. - Gold has strong support at $4100 - 4400 per ounce in Q2, with resistance at $5000; silver has strong support at $60 - 65 per ounce, with resistance at $100 [2][150]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Review 3.1.1 Market Review - In Q1 2026, precious metal prices fluctuated sharply, showing a pattern of rising and then falling. The SHFE Shanghai Gold Index reached a peak of 1260.15 yuan/gram on January 29, and as of March 20, it closed at 1042.5 yuan/gram, with a maximum quarterly amplitude of 253.53 yuan/gram and a quarterly increase of 6.4%. The SHFE Shanghai Silver Index reached a peak of 31573 yuan/kg on January 30, and as of March 20, it closed at 17626 yuan/kg, with a maximum quarterly amplitude of 15455 yuan/kg and a quarterly increase of 3.2% [6][7]. - The London gold - to - silver ratio widened slightly from around 60 at the end of last year to 63. In January, the domestic silver price had a significant premium over the London price, and the spot price had a significant premium over the futures price, but this situation reversed in February [7]. 3.1.2 Influence Factor Analysis - In Q1 2026, the precious metals market showed an extremely volatile pattern, with the core drivers centered around geopolitical conflicts and Fed policy expectations. In early Q1, multiple positive factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed policy expectations, and supply - demand imbalances drove the rise of precious metal prices. In late January, the nomination of a hawkish Fed chairman and the tightening of market liquidity led to a peak - to - trough decline in prices. In February, geopolitical conflicts, policy expectation differentiation, and tariff policy uncertainties drove the prices to rise in oscillations. In March, the market was extremely volatile, first falling sharply due to negative factors and then rebounding rapidly [23][24][25]. 3.1.3 Rise - Fall Period Analysis - Since 2026, the rise of precious metal prices has mainly concentrated in the early Asian trading session, while the European and American trading sessions have shown a downward trend. The inflow and outflow of funds from US and Chinese gold ETFs are closely related to price trends. The decline in precious metal prices is mainly driven by the European and American markets, and the key to the price recovery lies in the return of investment demand in the European and American markets and the shift of monetary policy expectations from rate hikes to rate cuts [29][30]. 3.2 Analysis of the Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts on Precious Metal Prices 3.2.1 Core Events in the Middle East Geopolitical Situation in Q1 - In Q1, the Middle East geopolitical situation gradually escalated and was in a state of repeated tug - of - war. Key events included Iran's enhanced control of the Strait of Hormuz, the escalation of the US - Iran standoff, and the assassination of Iran's supreme leader. These events led to fluctuations in energy prices, changes in Fed policy expectations, and significant impacts on precious metal prices [38][39][40]. 3.2.2 Impact Analysis of the Middle East Geopolitical Situation on Precious Metals - **Disappearance of Safe - Haven Benefits**: The rise in the Middle East geopolitical situation in March did not lead to an increase in precious metal prices. This may be due to the fact that the safe - haven sentiment had been reflected in January, and in March, factors such as energy shocks, the dominance of the US dollar's safe - haven status, and liquidity management led to the suppression of precious metal prices [43][57][59]. - **Short - Term Hawkish Disturbance in Monetary Policy Does Not Change the Medium - Term Loose Tone**: Although the Fed's monetary policy expectations have shifted from rate cuts to rate hikes due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict, considering the US economic situation, the dovish signal released by the Fed's March FOMC meeting, the short - term nature of geopolitical impacts, and the political factors, the Fed is more likely to cut rates in the medium term [76][82][91]. - **High Inflation Reality but Controllable Inflation Expectations**: Although the Middle East geopolitical conflict has pushed up inflation, the market's expectations for a full - blown stagflation are relatively low, and the inflation expectations are still under control, so the positive impact on gold prices has not been effectively transmitted [94][95][96]. - **Damage to the Long - Term Credit of the US Dollar**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict is eroding the long - term credit foundation of the US dollar from multiple dimensions, promoting the diversification of the international monetary system and providing long - term strategic support for gold [100][101]. 3.2.3 Outlook for the Impact of the Middle East Geopolitical Situation on Precious Metals - In Q2 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation may evolve in three paths: a baseline scenario (65% probability) with limited US ground intervention and a "cold confrontation" pattern; a high - risk scenario (20% probability) with a full - scale conflict escalation; and a low - probability scenario (15% probability) with a rapid cooling of the conflict. Different scenarios will have different impacts on precious metal prices [102][103][105]. 3.3 Precious Metals Research Framework: Central Bank Gold Purchases are the Key to Support, and Investment Demand is the Core Driver 3.3.1 Gold Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Analysis - Gold supply is relatively stable. In terms of demand, investment demand accounts for the largest proportion and has a large volatility, followed by central bank gold purchases. Gold ETF investment is the core driver of the medium - term trend of gold prices, while jewelry demand and central bank gold purchases play a role in constraining and buffering [109][110][111]. - Since 2026, global gold ETFs have flowed out after an inflow in January, and the central bank's gold - purchasing rhythm has slowed down. However, the long - term logic of central bank gold purchases has not changed, and the 4300 area may be an important support level for central bank gold purchases [117][121][125]. 3.3.2 Silver Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Analysis - In 2026, silver prices showed characteristics of high volatility, internal and external differentiation, and a combination of supply - demand gaps and macro - cycles. The global silver supply - demand gap is expected to continue in 2026, providing long - term support for prices. However, the silver market may face delivery squeeze risks, especially in the CME market [128][129][138]. 3.4 Market Outlook 3.4.1 Q2 Precious Metals Market Outlook - In Q2 2026, the evolution of the Middle East situation, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals will jointly determine the precious metals market. Geopolitical impacts may weaken, and prices may return to being driven by monetary policy and fundamentals. The prices of precious metals are expected to bottom out through oscillations and then rise, but more data support is needed [149][150]. 3.4.2 Strategies and Risks - In the short term, interval trading or low - buying layout is recommended, with strict control of positions and stop - losses. In the long term, focus on central bank gold purchases, the de - dollarization trend, and monetary policy rate - cut expectations, and buy gold at low prices during oscillations, with silver as an elastic auxiliary configuration [3][151]. - Risks include a full - scale escalation of geopolitical conflicts leading to a liquidity crisis, a continuous shift back of Fed rate - cut expectations, a general decline in assets due to liquidity panic, a slowdown in central bank gold - purchasing rhythm, or weak industrial demand for silver [5][152].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The report highlights that the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, combined with high inflation expectations and increased demand for safe-haven assets, is suppressing metal prices [1][5] - Precious metals are under short-term pressure due to concerns about stagflation in the US economy, with gold and silver prices experiencing significant declines [1][3] - The geopolitical tensions are expected to prolong the current economic challenges, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts in the near term [3][5] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold fell by 10.57% to $4,492.00 per ounce, while COMEX silver dropped by 15.92% to $67.81 per ounce [1][33] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 468,564.75 troy ounces, and SLV silver ETF holdings fell by 6,792,686.30 ounces [1] - The gold-silver ratio increased by 6.35% to 66.24, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] Base Metals - Base metals are facing downward pressure due to expectations of interest rate cuts being suppressed, with copper prices down 7.07% to $11,834.50 per ton on the LME [8][9] - The report notes that the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is causing significant disruptions in energy supply chains, which could further impact metal prices [10][12] - The supply side remains tight, with ongoing strikes and production disruptions expected to continue into 2026 [12][28] Small Metals - The report indicates that small metals like molybdenum are experiencing stable prices due to strong demand from the military and high-tech sectors, despite some downward pressure from the overall market [20][21] - The demand for vanadium is expected to surge due to the growth of vanadium battery applications, driven by energy storage needs [22][24] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests that investors should consider gold and silver mining stocks, as their valuations are currently low and expected to benefit from rising gold prices [26] - Specific companies mentioned as potential beneficiaries include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold Mining, and Zijin Mining [6][26][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is in a high - level consolidation, with mid - term support still in place. The market is in a re - balance stage between "geopolitical risk - aversion support" and "high - interest rate expectation suppressing the upward slope". Physical and allocation demand still support precious metals [1][2] - Silver's follow - up rise rhythm has slowed down, and its volatility may still be relatively large. It is affected by both geopolitical risk - aversion and inflation expectations, but its financial attribute is weaker than that of gold, and its short - term performance is more disturbed by risk preference and interest rate expectations [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Logic**: Middle - East situation, energy infrastructure attacks and transportation blockage in the Strait of Hormuz provide risk - aversion premium and anti - inflation support for gold; rising oil prices increase inflation risk, and the market's expectation of the Fed's significant interest rate cut this year has further converged, and the high - interest rate environment restricts the short - term gold price; the market has shifted from simply trading the interest rate path to also trading growth slowdown, fiscal and monetary stimulus expectations and geopolitical uncertainties, and the mid - term allocation value of gold as a store - of - value asset is still prominent; post - holiday continuous increase of Chinese gold ETFs and the premium of Shanghai over the international market indicate that Asian allocation demand is still resilient, supporting the lower limit of the gold price [2] - **Outlook**: In the short term, gold may maintain a high - level shock pattern, and the market will continue to play games among risk - aversion, inflation and interest rate constraints. In the mid - term, if the energy shock continues and drags down growth expectations, gold is still expected to attract funds in the stagflation trading framework; if the oil supply risk is significantly alleviated and the US Treasury yield continues to rise, the upward momentum of the gold price may slow down temporarily [2] Silver - **Logic**: Silver is supported by geopolitical risk - aversion and inflation expectations as part of the precious metals sector, but its financial attribute is weaker than that of gold, and its short - term performance is more affected by risk preference and interest rate expectations; the market's expectation of the high - interest rate maintenance time has been revised upwards, suppressing the valuation of silver and temporarily converging its elasticity relative to gold; if the market's pricing of stagflation deepens, silver will benefit from the precious metals sentiment on the one hand and face the disturbance of weakening growth expectations on its industrial attribute on the other hand, so its volatility may continue to be greater than that of gold [3] - **Outlook**: In the short term, silver is likely to maintain a high - level shock, but the rhythm is more complex. If the precious metals allocation demand continues to spread, silver still has room for a supplementary rise; if the market further shifts to trading the co - existence of growth slowdown and high interest rates, the silver price volatility may continue to increase [3] Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2591.86, down 0.61%; the commodity 20 index was 2926.66, down 0.58%; the industrial products index was 2565.21, down 0.51% [45] - **Precious Metals Index**: On March 17, 2026, the precious metals index was 4261.99, with a daily decline of 0.19%, a decline of 5.23% in the past 5 days, an increase of 1.47% in the past month, and an increase of 11.45% since the beginning of the year [47]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the robust performance of companies in the toy and commercial real estate sectors, with significant growth in revenue and profits driven by strategic initiatives and market conditions [4][31][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Toy Industry - The company "Blok" achieved a revenue of 1.575 billion yuan in H2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.9%, with an adjusted net profit of 355 million yuan, up 21.3% [13][16]. - The company has commercialized 29 IPs by H2 2025, with a total of 73 authorized IPs in reserve, indicating a strong focus on product matrix expansion [17]. - LEGO reported a record revenue of 83.53 billion Danish kroner in 2025, a 12.4% increase year-on-year, with a significant rise in operating profit and net profit [31][36]. 2. Commercial Real Estate - Swire Properties reported a revenue of 16.041 billion HKD in 2025, an 11% increase year-on-year, with a substantial rise in net profit by 27% to 8.62 billion HKD [51][54]. - The retail sector in Hong Kong showed positive growth, with a rental reversal and strong sales performance in early 2026, driven by improved consumer sentiment [52][58]. - The report notes that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may lead to increased capital inflow into Hong Kong real estate, positioning it as a key investment destination for sovereign wealth funds [60][61]. 3. Beauty Industry - In February 2026, the beauty category on Douyin saw a GMV of 21.85 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 1.13% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in growth compared to previous years [63][66]. - The report emphasizes the differentiation in growth rates between instant gratification categories like makeup and longer-term trust-based categories like skincare, suggesting a need for brands to adapt their strategies accordingly [64][65]. 4. Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market saw the consumer services index underperforming, while the retail sector outperformed the market, indicating varying performance across sectors [4][12].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: March 12, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bond and Container Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - Due to profit - taking and inflation concerns, the bond market sentiment remained weak [8] - Most yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market rose slightly, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising less than 1bp, and the yield of the 10 - year active bond 250016 reaching 1.8125%, up 0.5bp [9] - With continuous open - market withdrawals, the inter - bank liquidity tightened marginally. The net withdrawal of reverse repurchase in the open market was 14 billion yuan today. The tax - payment deadline on March 11 would increase the tax - period disturbance. The overnight DR rate in the inter - bank deposit market rose 4.5bp to around 1.37%, and the 7 - day fund rate rose 2.4bp to around 1.46%. The medium - and long - term funds were stable, with the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuating narrowly between 1.56% and 1.58% [10] - In terms of fundamentals, the PMI in February was affected by the Spring Festival and weakened. Although the post - holiday high - frequency economic indicators showed a fast resumption of production, and overseas export demand was still strong, the implementation of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" might boost the real - estate market in the "Golden March" season. The economy in the first quarter might continue to perform well, which dampened the market's easing expectations. The unclear situation between the US and Iran in the short term boosted the demand for safe - haven assets, but the sharp rise in oil prices also led to an increase in inflation expectations. The significant fluctuations in the financial market also brought liquidity shocks. The report suggested paying attention to the upcoming economic data for January - February [11][12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: The bond market sentiment was weak due to profit - taking and inflation concerns [8] - **Interest - rate Bonds**: Yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market mostly rose slightly, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising less than 1bp, and the yield of the 10 - year active bond 250016 reaching 1.8125%, up 0.5bp [9] - **Funding Market**: With continuous open - market withdrawals, the inter - bank liquidity tightened marginally. The net withdrawal of reverse repurchase in the open market was 14 billion yuan. The tax - payment deadline on March 11 would increase the tax - period disturbance. The overnight DR rate in the inter - bank deposit market rose 4.5bp to around 1.37%, and the 7 - day fund rate rose 2.4bp to around 1.46%. The medium - and long - term funds were stable, with the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fluctuating narrowly between 1.56% and 1.58% [10] - **Conclusion**: The economy in the first quarter might continue to perform well, dampening the market's easing expectations. The short - term situation between the US and Iran was unclear, bringing both safe - haven demand and inflation expectations. The financial market fluctuations also brought liquidity shocks. Attention should be paid to the upcoming economic data for January - February [11][12] 4.2 Industry News - The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference successfully concluded on the morning of the 11th, passing several important resolutions [13] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) proposed to release the largest - ever oil reserves to stabilize the soaring oil prices during the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran. The release volume would exceed the 182 million barrels of oil released by IEA member countries in two batches during the Russia - Ukraine conflict in 2022. The proposal was distributed at an emergency meeting of energy officials from 32 IEA member countries on Tuesday, and countries were expected to make a decision on Wednesday. The G7 supported the use of strategic reserves to address the oil supply shortage and market fluctuations caused by the Iran war [13] - In the first two months of 2026, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 7.73 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate returning to double - digits at 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, up 19.2% year - on - year; imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, up 17.1% year - on - year; and the trade surplus was 1.50349 trillion yuan. China's trade value with ASEAN was 1.24 trillion yuan, up 20.3%; with the EU was 998.94 billion yuan, up 19.9%; and with the US was 609.71 billion yuan, down 16.9% [14] - China's government debt structure has been changing, with the central government taking on more responsibility in new debt issuance to relieve local fiscal pressure. In 2026, China plans to issue 1.189 trillion yuan in new government debt, of which the central government will issue 669 billion yuan in Treasury bonds, accounting for about 56.3% of the total new government debt, and local governments will issue 520 billion yuan in local government bonds, accounting for about 43.7% [14] - China's CPI in February rose 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in nearly three years, higher than the expected 0.9% and the previous value of 0.2%. The average CPI from January to February rose 0.8% year - on - year. China's PPI in February fell 0.9% year - on - year, better than the expected 1.2% decline and the previous value of 1.4% decline. Affected by the Spring Festival, the CPI rose 1.0% month - on - month and 1.3% year - on - year in February, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose 1.8% year - on - year. Affected by factors such as the rise in international commodity prices, the rapid growth of domestic demand in some industries, and the continuous effectiveness of macro - policies, the PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and fell 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing continuously [15] 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides trading data of Treasury bond futures on March 11, including contract information such as pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6] - **Money Market**: The report presents data on the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change in the weighted average interest rate of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the change in the inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rate [30][34] - **Derivatives Market**: The report shows the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) [36]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Market Performance**: Precious metal prices adjusted this week, with silver's decline significantly greater than gold's, despite a slight rebound on Friday. COMEX and SHFE gold and silver positions further declined, and silver inventories continued to fall. The holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR decreased by 28 tons to 1,073.32 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares decreased by 231 tons to 15,762 tons [2]. - **Impact Factors**: The recent precious metal market transactions are concentrated on expectations of the Fed's monetary policy, hedging and inflation under geopolitical situations, uncertainties in trade policies, as well as economic stagflation and financial market risks. The weakness of precious metals this week was due to the Middle East geopolitical situation pushing up oil prices, further weakening the expectations of interest rate cuts by the Fed and European and American countries, leading to higher US dollar and US Treasury yields, thus suppressing precious metal prices. Additionally, the liquidity problem under the general decline of risk - assets also dragged down precious metal prices. However, precious metals showed a rebound trend on Friday due to concerns about economic recession rising after oil prices reached $90, increased financial market risks, a redemption wave in private credit of giants such as BlackRock, prominent shadow banking risks, a further decline in global stock markets, a rebound in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations on Friday, a decline in the US dollar index, and the return of safe - haven buying demand for precious metals. Data shows that the US February non - farm payrolls report released on Friday evening showed that the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, the non - farm payrolls increase turned negative, and the final values of non - farm payrolls increases in December and January were both revised down, increasing the risk of stagflation in the US and the global economy [3]. - **Long - term Logic**: In the medium term, gold and silver prices will mainly benefit from the game between the Fed's policies and the political environment during the mid - term election time window. The current low approval rating of Trump indicates that he is likely to continuously pursue two goals in the first half of the year: to promote the Fed to implement loose monetary policies and to improve his approval rating before the mid - term elections at the end of the year by strengthening the US hegemonic position and obtaining external interests. The expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policies, the weakening of the central bank's independence, or the fermentation of various uncertainties such as external geopolitics, international trade, and global financial markets will continuously support the increase in investment demand for gold and silver from the perspectives of monetary policy easing and safe - haven demand, thus being beneficial to the continued rise of gold and silver prices in the first half of the year. In the longer term, the credibility of the global US - dollar - dominated credit currency system continues to decline, and core issues such as the unsustainability of the US fiscal situation and the loosening of the US dollar hegemony are becoming increasingly prominent, accelerating the global de - dollarization process. This trend promotes central banks around the world to continuously increase their gold reserves, triggers the competition for gold pricing power and the reconstruction of the global gold market system, and lays a solid foundation for the long - term rise of gold and silver [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Strategically, the report still maintains a long - term bullish view on precious metals and regards corrections as opportunities for long - term position building. The support level for London gold is at 5,000, and the strong support is around the 60 - day moving average of 4,800. The support level for London silver is at 80, and the strong support is in the 70 - 72 area [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations - **Core Contradictions** - **Market Review**: Precious metal prices adjusted this week, with silver's decline significantly greater than gold's. COMEX and SHFE gold and silver positions further declined, and silver inventories continued to fall. The holdings of major gold and silver ETFs decreased [2]. - **Impact Factors Analysis**: The precious metal market was affected by multiple factors, including the Fed's monetary policy expectations, geopolitical situations, trade policies, economic stagflation, and financial market risks. The rise of the US dollar and US Treasury yields due to geopolitical factors suppressed precious metal prices, but concerns about economic recession and financial risks on Friday led to a rebound in precious metal prices [3]. - **Long - term Trading Logic**: In the medium term, gold and silver prices are affected by the Fed's policies and the political environment during the mid - term election time. In the long term, the de - dollarization process and central bank gold - buying behavior support the rise of gold and silver prices [5]. - **Trading - type Strategy Recommendations** - **Trend Judgment**: Maintain a long - term bullish view on precious metals and regard corrections as opportunities for long - term position building. Provide support levels for London gold and silver [6]. Chapter 2: Market Information - **This Week's Event Concerns**: Enter the quiet period of Fed officials before the March 19 FOMC meeting. Continue to focus on the progress of the Middle East situation, the recovery of the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian supreme leader election, the spread of the US private equity redemption wave, and the pressure on the credit market caused by discount selling risks [15]. - **Last Week and This Week's Data Concerns**: Provide a large amount of US and Chinese economic data, including PMI, non - farm payrolls, unemployment rate, CPI, etc. [14][16] Chapter 3: Futures and Price Data - **International Precious Metal Market**: Present the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of international precious metals such as London gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver, and the positions and inventories of related ETFs and CFTC [17]. - **Domestic Precious Metal Market**: Show the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of domestic precious metals such as SHFE gold and silver, and the inventories of related exchanges [17]. - **US Financial Asset Performance**: Provide the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of US financial assets such as the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, stock indices, etc. [18]. - **Domestic Financial Market**: Present the latest prices, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of domestic financial assets such as the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, stock indices, and Treasury yields [19]. Chapter 4: Macroeconomic Information - **FOMC Post - meeting Statement**: Compare and analyze the FOMC post - meeting statements in 2026/1/29 and 2025/12/11, including the assessment of the economic situation, policy goals, policy decisions, and voting situations [34]. - **Economic Forecast Table (December FOMC)**: Provide economic forecast data such as real GDP growth rate, unemployment rate, PCE inflation rate, and federal funds rate from 2025 to 2028 and in the long - run [36]. - **US CPI and Other Data**: Analyze the composition and changes of the US CPI, and present data on the US CPI and core CPI, PCE price index, non - farm payrolls, etc. [42][44] Chapter 5: Sensitive Demand and Valuation - **Sensitive Demand - ETF Investment Demand**: Show the long - term positions of gold and silver ETFs, including SPDR, SLV, and Chinese top 3 gold ETFs and Hua'an Gold ETF [54][56]. - **Valuation Anchoring - Related Assets**: Analyze the price relationships between precious metals and related assets such as the COMEX gold - silver ratio, gold and silver lease rates, gold and the US dollar index, gold and US Treasury real yields, etc. [58][60][62] - **Global Major Exchange Inventories**: Present the inventory data of precious metals in major global exchanges such as LBMA, COMEX, SHFE, and SGX [77][79][80]

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of conflict in the Middle East has significantly impacted global markets, leading to substantial sell-offs in U.S. stock funds and rising concerns over inflation and interest rates [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Investors sold off U.S. stock funds, with a net outflow of $21.92 billion (approximately 150 billion RMB), marking the largest weekly outflow in eight weeks [1][2]. - The U.S. growth funds experienced a net outflow of $11.15 billion, the largest since December 2025 [2]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped over 900 points during trading, with major tech stocks like Intel and Nvidia falling by more than 5% and 3% respectively [1]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Despite the overall sell-off, value funds saw a net inflow of $1.46 million, marking the fourth consecutive week of net buying [2]. - Industry funds in the U.S. attracted $1.2 billion, with significant inflows into industrials ($1.65 billion), utilities ($671 million), and metals and mining ($582 million) [2]. Group 3: Global Market Trends - The MSCI global index fell over 2.5%, heading towards its worst week since early April 2025, with global stock funds experiencing a net outflow of approximately $1.44 billion [3]. - European stock funds saw a decrease in inflows from approximately $11.88 billion to $8.8 billion, while Asian funds attracted $7.43 billion in net inflows [3]. Group 4: Commodity and Energy Markets - International oil prices surged, with WTI crude oil futures rising over 12% to $91.27 per barrel, and Brent crude increasing by over 9% to above $93 per barrel [6]. - The ongoing conflict has led to a near-total halt in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about global oil supply and potential price spikes [7]. - Goldman Sachs warned that if supply disruptions continue, oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel, with some forecasts suggesting prices could reach $150 [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, due to the Middle - East situation and the impact of US non - farm payroll data on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, gold is in a short - term volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and consider taking profits on long positions at high levels or selling out - of - the - money call options to protect long positions [1]. - For silver, the logic of medium - to - long - term price increase driven by supply inventory shortage and strong investment demand still holds. However, short - term exchange rule adjustments and cautious capital attitudes limit the upward momentum. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options to earn time value [1]. - For platinum and palladium, supported by macro - financial attributes and a tight supply pattern, with stable industrial demand and slightly increasing investment demand, prices are generally supported. But due to the drag of gold and silver, the short - term trend remains weakly volatile, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the money call options [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Closing Prices - AU2604 contract closed at 1152.00 yuan/gram on March 5, down 1.06 yuan or 0.09% from March 4 [1]. - AG2604 contract closed at 21639 yuan/ten grams on March 5, down 215 yuan or 0.98% from March 4 [1]. - PT2606 contract closed at 563.95 yuan/gram on March 5, up 0.45 yuan or 0.08% from March 4 [1]. - PD2606 contract closed at 428.00 yuan/gram on March 5, down 5.80 yuan or 1.34% from March 4 [1]. 3.2 Foreign Futures Closing Prices - COMEX gold主力 contract closed at 5093.30 on March 5, down 58.30 or 1.13% from March 4 [1]. - COMEX silver主力 contract closed at 82.52 on March 5, down 1.25 or 1.49% from March 4 [1]. - NYMEX platinum主力 contract closed at 2128.20 dollars/ounce on March 5, down 37.60 or 1.74% from March 4 [1]. - NYMEX palladium主力 contract closed at 1650.00 on March 5, down 48.50 or 2.86% from March 4 [1]. 3.3 Spot Prices - London gold was at 5084.69 on March 5, down 35.85 or 0.70% from the previous value [1]. - London silver was at 82.26 on March 5, down 1.28 or 1.54% from the previous value [1]. - Spot palladium was at 2120.10 dollars/ounce on March 5, down 46.90 or 2.16% from the previous value [1]. - Spot platinum was at 1629.50 on March 5, down 38.00 or 2.28% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's gold + D was at 1148.56 on March 5, down 4.39 or 0.38% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver T + D was at 21068 yuan/ten grams on March 5, down 493 or 2.29% from the previous value [1]. - Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum 9995 was at 554 yuan/gram on March 5, up 3 or 0.47% from the previous value [1]. 3.4 Basis - The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was - 3.44, down 3.33 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 46.10% [1]. - The basis of silver TD - Shanghai silver主力 was - 571, down 278 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 60.60% [1]. - The basis of London gold - COMEX gold was - 8.61, up 22.45 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 76.30% [1]. - The basis of London silver - COMEX silver was - 0.26, down 0.04 from the previous day, with a 1 - year historical quantile of 30.20% [1]. 3.5 Price Ratios - The ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 61.72, up 0.22 or 0.36% from the previous value [1]. - The ratio of Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold/silver was 53.24, up 0.48 or 0.90% from the previous value [1]. - The ratio of NYMEX platinum/palladium was 1.29, up 0.01 or 1.15% from the previous value [1]. - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's platinum/palladium was 1.32, up 0.02 or 1.44% from the previous value [1]. 3.6 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.13, up 0.04 or 1.0% from the previous value [1]. - The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.57, up 0.03 or 0.8% from the previous value [1]. - The 10 - year TIPS Treasury yield was 1.82, up 0.02 or 1.1% from the previous value [1]. - The US dollar index was 99.04, up 0.25 or 0.25% from the previous value [1]. - The offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.9184, up 0.0238 or 0.35% from the previous value [1]. 3.7 Inventories and Positions - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 105033, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory was 272721 kilograms, down 22102 or 7.50% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX gold inventory was 33100294, up 59808 or 0.18% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX silver inventory was 351341925, down 877946 or 0.25% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX gold registered warehouse receipts were 17003460, up 2000 or 0.01% from the previous value [1]. - The COMEX silver registered warehouse receipts were 81235306, down 5908189 or 6.78% from the previous value [1]. - The SPRD gold ETF position was 1076, down 5.15 or 0.48% from the previous value [1]. - The SLV silver ETF position was 15810, down 138.05 or 0.87% from the previous value [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical premiums are rising, and macroeconomic games are intensifying. Geopolitical risks have significantly increased, and safe-haven funds are continuously flowing into the precious metals market. Gold prices are approaching $5,200 per ounce. Energy prices are rising, pushing up global inflation expectations, and the market is re - evaluating the monetary policy path. The US dollar has rebounded, and precious metals are maintaining a high - level oscillation pattern between safe - haven demand and interest rate expectations [1]. - If the Middle East conflict continues and disrupts global energy supply, the safe - haven demand for gold will remain. However, if energy prices drive inflation expectations to rise and strengthen the high - interest - rate environment, the upward space for gold prices may be limited. In the short term, gold may maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and in the medium term, it still depends on real interest rates and the US dollar trend [2]. - Silver is a high - volatility asset under the resonance of precious metals. Geopolitical conflicts strengthen the overall safe - haven demand for precious metals. Silver has received support from capital allocation. After significant fluctuations, silver has entered a shock - repair stage, and capital re - allocation within the precious metals sector makes the short - term volatility of silver significantly higher than that of gold. The industrial attribute provides marginal support for silver demand. If the safe - haven sentiment continues to heat up, silver is expected to maintain high elasticity in the precious metals sector. If interest rate expectations rise again, silver price fluctuations may further increase, maintaining a high - volatility oscillation pattern [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical premiums are rising, and macroeconomic games are intensifying [1]. - **Logic**: - The Middle East conflict continues to escalate, and the uncertainty of global energy supply has significantly increased, and safe - haven demand continuously supports the gold price [1]. - Rising oil prices drive up inflation expectations, and the market re - evaluates the monetary policy path of major economies. The possibility of maintaining high interest rates exerts a phased suppression on gold [1]. - The US dollar rebounds after a previous decline. Exchange rate and interest rate factors cause gold to show an oscillation pattern at a high level [1]. - **Outlook**: If the Middle East conflict continues and disrupts global energy supply, the safe - haven demand for gold will remain. However, if energy prices drive inflation expectations to rise and strengthen the high - interest - rate environment, the upward space for gold prices may be limited. In the short term, gold may maintain a high - level oscillation pattern, and in the medium term, it still depends on real interest rates and the US dollar trend [2]. Silver - **Viewpoint**: A high - volatility asset under the resonance of precious metals [3]. - **Logic**: - Geopolitical conflicts strengthen the overall safe - haven demand for precious metals, and silver receives support from capital allocation in the context of the strengthening of gold [3]. - After significant fluctuations, silver has entered a shock - repair stage, and capital re - allocation within the precious metals sector makes the short - term volatility of silver significantly higher than that of gold [3]. - In the context of certain resilience in the global economy, the industrial attribute provides marginal support for silver demand [3]. - **Outlook**: If the safe - haven sentiment continues to heat up, silver is expected to maintain high elasticity in the precious metals sector. If interest rate expectations rise again, silver price fluctuations may further increase, maintaining a high - volatility oscillation pattern [3]. Commodity Index - **Composite Index**: Not provided with specific data - **Special Index**: - Commodity Index: 2510.23, +1.04% [44] - Commodity 20 Index: 2869.81, +1.11% [44] - Industrial Products Index: 2430.86, +1.36% [44] - **Sector Index (Precious Metals Index)**: - On March 5, 2026, the index was 4413.43, with a daily increase of +0.91% [46] - The increase in the past 5 days was - 1.33% [46] - The increase in the past 1 month was - 14.40% [46] - The increase from the beginning of the year to the present was +15.41% [46]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus remains on the **Middle East**, particularly the ongoing conflict in **Iran** and its implications for global oil prices and markets [6][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Oil Prices**: - Oil prices have risen by **4-5%**, with Brent crude reaching an intraday high near **$85/bbl** before stabilizing around **$82/bbl** following the announcement of US insurance guarantees for oil shipments [6][3][2]. - The effectiveness of US policy actions to mitigate deliverability risks is contingent on the specifics of the implementation [6][3][2]. - Military activities in the region have led to production pauses at oil and LNG sites across **Qatar, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Israel** [6][3]. - **US Economic Indicators**: - US rates have extended their sell-off, but some stability has been found as inflation expectations moderate, with breakevens rising by approximately **1bp** at the front end [6][3]. - Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have diminished, with only about **40bp** of cuts now priced in before the end of the year [6][3]. - **Market Reactions**: - The **DXY** (US Dollar Index) increased by **0.7%**, reflecting a flight to safety amid global risk asset sell-offs [6][3]. - The **S&P 500** declined by **1%**, with materials stocks leading the drop at **-2.7%** [6][3]. - European and Asian markets experienced sharper declines, with the **Euro Stoxx 50** down **3.6%** and the **Nikkei** down **3%** [6][3]. - **Inflation Concerns**: - Rising oil prices are raising inflation concerns, particularly in emerging markets, which are experiencing weakened currencies against a risk-off backdrop [8][6]. - **Geopolitical Developments**: - President Trump proposed "cutting off all trade with Spain" after Spain denied access to military bases for US operations in Iran, which could potentially impact Spain's GDP by **1pp** and the broader euro area by **0.1pp** [9][6]. Additional Important Content - **Central Bank Responses**: - The **Bank of Korea** is closely monitoring market developments and is prepared to take action if necessary, as local markets reopened after a holiday [11][13]. - The **European Central Bank** is facing rising inflation expectations, leading to a shift in market pricing from potential cuts to hikes [9][6]. - **Emerging Market Dynamics**: - Emerging market currencies are under pressure due to inflation concerns and crowded high-beta positioning [8][6]. - **Commodity Market Trends**: - Despite the flight to safety, gold prices fell sharply by **4%**, indicating a complex market reaction to rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [6][3]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments discussed in the conference call, focusing on the implications for the oil market, economic indicators, and geopolitical factors affecting global markets.