Core Insights - The recent performance of gold ETFs shows a decline of 1.00% as of November 18, 2025, with a latest price of 8.78 yuan, while over the past two weeks, there has been a cumulative increase of 0.97% [2] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that gold prices will reach $4,500 per ounce by 2026, driven by weak supply-demand balance and expectations of economic downturns [3] Market Performance - As of November 17, 2025, gold ETF trading volume was 1.95%, with a transaction value of 7.42 billion yuan, and the average daily transaction over the past week was 16.32 billion yuan [2] - On November 17, gold prices fluctuated, hitting a low of $4,006.8 per ounce before closing at $4,045.1 per ounce, reflecting a 1.2% decline in COMEX gold futures [2] Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve official Jefferson expressed cautious views on interest rate cuts, indicating rising risks in employment and a slight decrease in inflation risks, with a 42.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [2] - Morgan Stanley highlights that the recent pullback in gold prices is influenced by signals of a weak U.S. economy and expectations of Federal Reserve easing, with a need to monitor U.S. economic data and Fed policy [3] Fund Flows - The latest net inflow into gold ETFs was 321 million yuan, with a total of 651 million yuan net inflow over the past five trading days, averaging 130 million yuan per day [3]