Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The fundamentals continue the weak recovery trend. After the cross - quarter period, the capital pressure subsides, and the seasonal loosening window opens. The overall environment is bullish for the bond market. However, due to the unclear policy disturbances in the second half of the year, the downward space for yields is limited, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, TS, and TL主力合约收盘价分别为109.105、106.225、102.502、121.150，其中TF、TS、TL主力合约分别下跌0.02%、0.01%、0.04%，T主力合约持平；T、TF、TL主力成交量分别减少218、865、1354，TS主力成交量增加257 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads like TL2512 - 2509 increased by 0.02, while others such as T2512 - 2509 decreased by 0.02 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: T主力持仓量为216,298手，减少0.01%；TF主力持仓量为157,986手，增加81手；TS主力持仓量为115,517手，减少1,682手；TL主力持仓量为122,562手，减少16手。 The net short positions of T, TS, and TL decreased, while that of TF increased [2]. b. CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of some CTD bonds like 220010.IB increased by 0.0337, while others such as 240020.IB decreased by 0.0414 [2]. - **Active Bonds**: The yields of 1 - 7Y active bonds decreased by 0.10 - 0.15bp, while the 10Y yield increased by 0.15bp [2]. c. Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The overnight silver - pledged repo rate increased by 2.25bp to 1.3225%, the 7 - day silver - pledged repo rate increased by 16.08bp to 1.4908%, and the 14 - day silver - pledged repo rate decreased by 2.00bp to 1.5000%. Shibor overnight decreased by 0.10bp to 1.3120%, Shibor 7 - day increased by 3.50bp to 1.4580%, and Shibor 14 - day decreased by 2.90bp to 1.4940% [2]. - **LPR Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged at 3.00% and 3.5% respectively [2]. d. Market News - **Domestic News**: The Hong Kong "Stablecoin Ordinance" will come into effect in August. The Minister of Finance of China attended the 2025 BRICS Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting and expressed China's willingness to deepen BRICS financial cooperation [2]. - **Overseas News**: US President Trump said that the US government will start sending letters to trading partners to set new unilateral tariff rates, which may range from 10% - 70%, and are likely to take effect on August 1 [2]. e. Key Data to Focus On - On July 07 at 17:00, the eurozone May retail sales month - on - month rate will be released. On July 08 at 20:30, US President Trump will start sending tariff letters to other countries [3].