联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 3 月 2 日星期一 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 ，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 上周五国债期货主力合约开盘大致平开，全天横向窄幅波动，截至收盘 30 年期国 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 债期货主力合约 TL2606 下跌 0.07%，10 年期 T2606 上涨 0.05%，5 年期 TF2606 上 涨 0.04%，2 年期 TS2606 上涨 0.03%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：上周五央行开展了 2690 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当日无逆回购到期， 合计当日净投放 2690 亿元。2 月 28 日央行开 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 3 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：上周五国债期货均窄幅震荡整理。一方面，央行在政策发力方向强调与财政政策协同发 力，这意味着货币政策与财政政策类似，将偏向结构性宽松，短期内全面降息的预期回落，国债期货 上行动能减弱。另一方面，宏观经济指标表明内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，未来降息预期仍存，国 债到期收益率的上行空间受限，国债期货具有较强支撑。总的来说，短期内国债期货震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2606 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期内全面降息的可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨 ...

股 指 期 货 交 易 数 据 | | | 大类资产早报 研究中心宏观团队 2026/02/27 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 最新 | 4.005 | 4.273 | 3.248 | 2.690 | 3.299 | 3.097 | 0.197 | 3.297 | | 日本 | | 巴西 | 中国 | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | 新西兰 | | | | 最新 | 2.149 | 5.915 | 1.819 | - | 4.701 | 4.353 | | | | 主要经济体2年期国债 | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | | 英国 | 德国 | 日本 | 意大利 | 中国（1Y收益 率） | 韩国 | 澳大利亚 | | 最新 | 3.431 | 3.540 | 2.037 | 1.233 | 2 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2026-02-26 地产新政出台，沪指冲⾼回落 股指期货：地产新政出台，交易主线散乱。 股指期权：短期波动预期降低，视⻆可转向中期温涨。 国债期货：政策及⻛险偏好扰动，债市下跌。 股指期货方面，地产新政出台，交易主线散乱。周三沪指冲高回落， 上行出现阻力，中小盘股占优。变盘发生在午间，上海发布楼市新政，降 低购房的社保年限门槛，板块出现轮动。结合同时段各行业的走势，周期 板块集中止盈，包含石油石化、化工、煤炭，而地产链的建材、房地产相 对抗跌。其他主线缺乏，小概念轮动为主，如商业航天、有色稀土等受事 件驱动。主线散乱状态下，上方高度或受限，但随着节后A股量能有所恢 复，流动性充裕、商品联动风险消退，两会以前政策看涨期权仍有效，仍 以IM多单配置，等待会期。 股指期权方面，短期波动预期降低，视角可转向中期温涨。昨日标的 市场继续上涨，中小盘相关品种相对涨幅更大，期权市场成交量有小幅上 行，但未回到近期高位，结合各品种隐含波动率普遍进一步下探，可以推 测当前市场交易逻辑逐渐从对冲和博弈转向中期布局，短期波动预期大大 降低。而从持仓 ...

2月25日，香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波发表2026—2027年度财政预算案。陈茂波表示，综合各种因 素，预计今年香港经济增长2.5%至3.5%，基本通胀率和整体通胀率分别为1.7%和1.8%。他预测香港经 济在2027—2030年平均每年实质增长3%，基本通胀率预计为平均每年2%。 他还表示，为丰富互联互通，特区政府会积极与内地研究加快落实在港推出国债期货，将房地产投资信 托基金纳入互联互通，将人民币交易柜台纳入港股通，以及探索持续优化债券通。 （文章来源：期货日报网） ...

Morning session notice Morning session notice 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周二国债期货主力合约开盘涨跌参半，早盘冲高后横向波动略有回落，截至收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 涨 0.20%，10 年期 T2603 涨 0.02%，5 年期 TF2606 涨 0.07%，2 年期 TS2603 涨 0.02%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周二央行开展了 5260 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当日 14524 亿元逆回 购到期，当日净回笼 9264 亿元。2 月 LPR 连续第九个月持稳：1 年期 LPR 报 3%，上 次为 3%；5 年期以上品种报 3.5%，上次为 3.5%。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周二银行间资金市场隔夜利率较上一交易日小幅上行，DR001 全天加 权平均为 1. ...

国债期货日报 2026/2/24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 108.500 | 0.02% T主力成交量 | 114901 | 879↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 106.175 | 0.07% TF主力成交量 | 90761 | -35670↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.450 | 0.02% TS主力成交量 | 26599 | -6350↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 112.960 | 0.2% TL主力成交量 | 63711 | -24535↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2606价差 | -0.30 | -0.13↓ T03-TL03价差 | -4.46 | -0.12↓ | | | T2603-2606价差 | -0.11 | -0.05↓ TF03-T03价差 | -2.55 | -0.02↓ | | | TF2603-2606价差 | -0.22 | -0.08↓ TS03-T03价差 | -6.05 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On February 12, 2026, the Treasury bond futures contracts of different tenors on the China Financial Futures Exchange showed divergent trends. The market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term, and multiple factors need to be monitored [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On February 12, 2026, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose slightly, the 2 - year contract fell, and the 5 - year contract was basically flat. The overall market trading was active, and the capital side remained loose [2][3]. - The 10 - year main contract opened at 108.565 yuan, closed at 108.585 yuan, up 0.025 yuan or 0.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 72,102 lots, and the open interest was 184,151 lots, a decrease of 17,988 lots from the previous day [2]. - The 5 - year main contract opened at 106.085 yuan and closed at 106.065 yuan, basically flat (+0.005 yuan). The trading volume was 63,267 lots, and the open interest was 74,846 lots, a decrease of 12,640 lots from the previous day [2]. - The 2 - year main contract opened at 102.456 yuan and closed at 102.458 yuan, down 0.02 yuan or 0.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 43,644 lots, and the open interest was 34,819 lots, a decrease of 8,746 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.2 Market Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Domestic Market Factors - Liquidity was loose. The central bank conducted 166.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 400 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40% unchanged. The net investment on the day was 448 billion yuan, and the short - term Shibor mostly declined [3][4]. - On February 12, 2026, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.356%, 1.5366%, 1.7894%, and 2.246% respectively. The yield curve steepened, and the long - end yield was relatively stable, supporting long - term Treasury bond futures [4]. 3.2.2 International Market Factors - US economic data showed that the non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000 people in January, much higher than the expected 70,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025. The market adjusted its expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut, and the first cut may be postponed to June or July [4]. - Global monetary policies were divergent. The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, and the RBA governor said it would raise interest rates again if inflation persisted. This increased the uncertainty of international capital flows and indirectly affected the domestic bond market [4]. 3.3 Short - term Market Outlook - In the short - term, the Treasury bond futures market may maintain a volatile pattern. Factors to be concerned about include monetary policy trends, changes in the capital side, the impact of US monetary policy, and economic fundamental data [5][6]. - Technically, the 10 - year main contract oscillated in the range of 108.5 - 108.7 yuan, and it was necessary to watch whether it could break through the upper limit. The 5 - year and 2 - year contracts were expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations, and market trading may gradually shift to new main contracts [6].

Core Viewpoint - The main observation is that government bond futures have shown a slight increase, influenced by tightening liquidity and heightened demand for safe-haven assets as the holiday approaches, although the upward potential is limited due to a slowdown in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and a focus on structural monetary easing by the central bank [1][2]. Group 1: Government Bond Futures Performance - As of the close on February 10, the 30-year government bond futures (TL2603) closed at 112.680 yuan, up 0.010 yuan, a rise of 0.01% [1][2]. - The 10-year government bond futures (T2603) closed at 108.485 yuan, up 0.015 yuan, also a rise of 0.01% [1][2]. - The 5-year government bond futures (TF2603) closed at 106.015 yuan, up 0.005 yuan, with a negligible change of 0.00% [1][2]. - The 2-year government bond futures (TS2603) closed at 102.482 yuan, up 0.004 yuan, reflecting a minimal increase of 0.00% [1][2]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Outlook - According to Baocun Futures' report, the tightening liquidity and increased demand for government bonds as a safe haven are contributing to a strong but volatile market for government bond futures [1][2]. - The expectation for a comprehensive rate cut by the central bank is deemed unnecessary in the short term, as the focus remains on structural easing rather than broad reductions [1][2]. - Overall, the outlook for government bond futures indicates a continuation of volatility and consolidation in the near term [1][2].

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that the opening of government bond futures shows mixed performance across different maturities, with the 30-year contract declining slightly while shorter-term contracts experience slight increases [1] Group 2 - The 30-year main contract decreased by 0.05% [1] - The 10-year main contract increased by 0.02% [1] - The 5-year main contract rose by 0.01% [1] - The 2-year main contract also saw an increase of 0.01% [1]