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联合国贸发会议:贸易格局正在重塑 世界经济逼近“危机边缘”
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-12-04 07:33
Group 1 - The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report indicates that financial market volatility is becoming a key factor influencing global trade and economic outlook, leading to increased fragility in the world economy [1] - The report forecasts a slowdown in global economic growth to 2.6% in 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024 [1] - Global trade growth is expected to be around 4% at the beginning of 2025, driven by early imports in response to tariff adjustments and the expansion of service trade due to the digital economy [1] Group 2 - Over 90% of global trade relies on bank financing, with the dollar maintaining a dominant position in international payments and trade settlements, making the global trade system sensitive to changes in interest rates and investor sentiment [2] - The financialization trend is altering the dynamics of the commodity market, with major grain trading companies deriving over 70% of their revenue from financial activities rather than physical trade [2] - Developing countries are projected to achieve a 4.3% economic growth rate in 2025, significantly higher than developed economies, but face challenges such as higher financing costs and climate change pressures [2] Group 3 - Climate-vulnerable countries bear additional burdens, with extreme weather leading to an estimated extra interest expense of $20 billion annually, accumulating over $212 billion since 2006 [3] - Despite a trend towards diversification in global foreign exchange reserves, the dollar's dominance in financial, payment, and capital markets has strengthened, with its share in the SWIFT payment system rising from 39% to about 50% over the past five years [3] - To enhance global economic resilience, UNCTAD calls for institutional reforms to improve financing conditions for developing countries and strengthen local currency financial markets [3]