Group 1 - The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report indicates that financial market volatility is becoming a key factor influencing global trade and economic outlook, leading to increased fragility in the world economy [1] - The report forecasts a slowdown in global economic growth to 2.6% in 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024 [1] - Global trade growth is expected to be around 4% at the beginning of 2025, driven by early imports in response to tariff adjustments and the expansion of service trade due to the digital economy [1] Group 2 - Over 90% of global trade relies on bank financing, with the dollar maintaining a dominant position in international payments and trade settlements, making the global trade system sensitive to changes in interest rates and investor sentiment [2] - The financialization trend is altering the dynamics of the commodity market, with major grain trading companies deriving over 70% of their revenue from financial activities rather than physical trade [2] - Developing countries are projected to achieve a 4.3% economic growth rate in 2025, significantly higher than developed economies, but face challenges such as higher financing costs and climate change pressures [2] Group 3 - Climate-vulnerable countries bear additional burdens, with extreme weather leading to an estimated extra interest expense of $20 billion annually, accumulating over $212 billion since 2006 [3] - Despite a trend towards diversification in global foreign exchange reserves, the dollar's dominance in financial, payment, and capital markets has strengthened, with its share in the SWIFT payment system rising from 39% to about 50% over the past five years [3] - To enhance global economic resilience, UNCTAD calls for institutional reforms to improve financing conditions for developing countries and strengthen local currency financial markets [3]

报告特别强调，全球超过九成的贸易依赖银行融资，美元流动性在国际支付和贸易结算中仍占据绝对中 心地位。因此，主要金融中心的利率变化或投资者情绪转变，都可能迅速传导至全球贸易体系。对于融 资渠道有限的发展中国家而言，冲击更为明显。 金融化趋势也正在改变大宗商品市场的生态。一些大型粮食贸易企业超过七成收入来自金融业务，而非 实物贸易，这使得全球粮食体系更容易受到金融市场波动影响，脆弱性进一步增加。 南方财经 21世纪经济报道记者周蕊纽约报道 联合国贸易和发展会议近日发布《2025 年贸易与发展报告》，指出金融市场的波动正在成为决定全球 贸易走向和经济前景的关键力量，使世界经济处于愈发脆弱的状态。报告预计，2025 年全球经济增速 将放缓至 2.6%，较 2024 年的 2.9% 小幅回落。 贸发会议秘书长格林斯潘表示，当前的金融环境已经深刻改变了全球贸易的运行逻辑。她强调，贸易体 系并不是单纯的物流链条，而是一套由信贷、支付体系、货币流动和资本市场共同支撑的复杂网络。随 着全球金融条件收紧，贸易增长越来越受到金融变量的影响。 报告显示，2025 年初全球贸易增长约 4%，部分源自企业提前进口以应对关税调整，也得益于 ...