Core Insights - The UNCTAD report indicates that global trade is expected to maintain strong growth in the first half of 2025, with an increase of over $500 billion, driven primarily by trade expansion among developing countries and a rebound in manufacturing exports [1][2] Group 1: South-South Trade - South-South trade is showing strong growth, significantly contributing to global trade expansion, particularly in East Asia, where trade among developing countries is active [1][2] - The growth in South-South trade is attributed to increasing complementarity among developing countries, which possess abundant natural and labor resources, allowing for mutual learning and technology sharing [2] - However, the growth is uneven, with East Asia leading while other regions lag behind; excluding East Asia, South-South trade contracted in Q2 2025, highlighting challenges such as inadequate infrastructure and trade barriers [2] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing is a key driver of global trade growth, with a quarterly growth rate of 3%, outperforming agriculture and natural resources sectors [3] - The electronics and automotive industries are particularly strong, with electronic products, especially AI-related devices, seeing a quarterly trade increase of 7%, while electric and hybrid vehicles grew by 17% and 10%, respectively [2][3] - The report anticipates continued growth in manufacturing driven by green and technological transitions, particularly in renewable energy equipment and AI-related products [3] Group 3: China's Role - As the world's largest goods trader, China significantly influences global trade dynamics, contributing notably to trade growth in the first half of 2025 [4] - China's robust manufacturing base and complete industrial chain have propelled global manufacturing trade, with strong performance in electronics and green transportation sectors [4] - China's investments in the new energy vehicle sector have boosted its manufacturing exports and increased its share in global automotive trade, while also enhancing trade ties with developing countries through initiatives like the Belt and Road [4]

Core Insights - The UNCTAD report indicates that global trade is expected to maintain strong growth in the first half of 2025, with an increase of over $500 billion, driven primarily by trade expansion among developing countries and a rebound in manufacturing exports [1][2] Group 1: South-South Trade - South-South trade is showing strong growth, significantly contributing to global trade expansion, particularly in East Asia, where trade among developing countries is active [1][2] - The growth in South-South trade is driven by increasing complementarity among developing countries, which possess abundant natural and labor resources, allowing for mutual learning and technology sharing [2] - However, the growth is uneven, with East Asia leading while other regions lag behind; excluding East Asia, global South-South trade contracted in Q2 2025, highlighting challenges such as inadequate infrastructure and trade barriers [2] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing is a key driver of global trade growth, with a quarterly growth rate of 3%, outperforming agriculture and natural resources sectors [3] - The electronics and automotive industries are particularly strong, with electronic product trade increasing by 7% quarter-on-quarter, and electric and hybrid vehicles seeing trade growth of 17% and 10%, respectively [2][3] - The report anticipates continued growth in manufacturing, especially in renewable energy equipment and AI-related electronics, supported by ongoing green and technological transitions [3] Group 3: China's Role - China, as the largest goods trader globally, plays a crucial role in shaping global trade dynamics, contributing significantly to trade growth in the first half of 2025 [4] - China's robust manufacturing base and complete industrial chain have bolstered global manufacturing trade, with strong performance in electronics and green transportation sectors [4] - Investments in the new energy vehicle sector have enhanced China's manufacturing exports, increasing its share in global automotive trade, while also diversifying trade markets through initiatives like the Belt and Road [4]

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its global merchandise trade growth forecast for this year from 0.9% in August to 2.4% [1] - The growth rate for service exports is projected to be 4.4% in 2024 and 4.6% in 2025, both lower than the 6.8% expected for 2024 [1] - The forecast for 2026 has been downgraded from 1.8% to 0.5% [1] Trade Dynamics - The report attributes the unexpected strength in merchandise trade in the first half of the year to increased procurement related to artificial intelligence, early imports by the U.S. due to tariff concerns, and robust trade from developing countries [1] - A significant 42% of global trade growth is driven by AI-related products, which is notably higher than their 15% share in global trade [1] - In the first half of 2025, South-South trade is expected to grow by 8%, surpassing the global trade growth rate of 6% [1] Risks to Trade Outlook - The main downside risks to the global trade outlook include the spread of trade restrictions and policy uncertainties affecting more economies and sectors [1]

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its global goods trade growth forecast for the first half of 2025 from 0.9% to 2.4%, driven by strong demand for AI-related products, early imports in North America to avoid tariffs, and active trade among emerging economies [1][3] Group 1: Global Trade Growth - The global goods trade volume is expected to grow by 4.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with trade value in USD increasing by 6% [3] - AI-related products, including semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment, are key drivers of this growth, contributing nearly half of the overall increase with a 20% year-on-year rise in trade value [3][4] Group 2: Emerging Economies and Regional Performance - Trade among emerging economies (South-South trade) grew by 8% in the first half of 2025, surpassing the global average growth rate of 6% [4] - Asia and Africa are projected to achieve the fastest export growth in 2025, while Europe may experience a slowdown and North America could see a decline in export trade [4] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Global GDP is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2025, slightly decreasing to 2.6% in 2026, with short-term trade growth supported by inventory accumulation and AI-related products [5] - The growth momentum for global services trade is anticipated to weaken, with commercial services export growth expected to drop from 6.8% in 2024 to 4.6% in 2025 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Director-General of the WTO, Iweala, stated that tariff measures will continue to exert pressure on trade in the coming year, despite previous tariff increases and the suspension of several tax measures from April to August, which have delayed their impact into the latter half of this year and into next year [1] Group 1: Trade Impact and Growth - Tariff measures are still putting pressure on global trade, with expectations of continued effects into next year [1] - The world merchandise trade volume is expected to grow stronger than anticipated in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 4.9% [1] - North American imports saw a year-on-year increase of 13.2% in the first quarter, driven primarily by pharmaceuticals and precious metals, particularly gold [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Trade Growth - Importers are placing orders in advance to prepare for potential future tariff increases or retaliatory measures, contributing to record-high inventory levels in the U.S. [1] - There is a significant surge in demand for AI-related products, including semiconductors, computers, servers, and manufacturing equipment, to support ongoing capital investments in AI [1] - Trade between other regions, particularly South-South trade, continues to grow, with South-South trade volume increasing by 8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, compared to a global trade growth of only 6% during the same period [1]

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty brought by US tariff policies is driving Chinese companies to shift their business focus towards global southern countries, potentially leading to a "new global business order" where south-south trade becomes a new focal point, with Chinese multinational companies as key participants [3]. Trade Growth - Over the past decade, China's exports to global southern countries have doubled, while exports to the US and Western Europe grew by 28% and 58% respectively during the same period. From 2020 to 2024, exports to southern countries are expected to grow by 65% [4]. - China's current export volume to global southern countries is approximately $1.6 trillion, exceeding the combined exports to the US and Western Europe (around $1 trillion) by over 50% [4]. - Since 2015, imports from global southern countries have also more than doubled, reaching $1 trillion, which is six times the imports from the US ($164 billion) and nearly four times from Western Europe ($260 billion) [4]. Sectoral Focus - Different regions have distinct focuses in product trade, with significant growth in agricultural products between China and ASEAN, and enhanced cooperation in electronics, automotive manufacturing, and textiles [6]. - Trade with Africa is also on the rise, expanding into high-tech, digital economy, artificial intelligence, and climate change response sectors [6]. Investment Trends - The uncertainty from US tariffs is acting as a catalyst for Chinese companies to explore opportunities in global southern countries, with stable bilateral relations facilitating market access [7]. - Chinese companies are increasingly investing locally rather than merely transshipping goods, requiring substantial investments in manufacturing capacity, infrastructure, and workforce training [7]. - Investment inflows from China to key Southeast Asian partners like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam have averaged $8.8 billion annually, with sectoral investments varying by country [7]. Case Study: Indonesia - In Indonesia, Chinese companies are aligning their investments with local development goals, such as building nickel smelting plants and participating in the electric vehicle supply chain [8]. Challenges and Opportunities - Despite the growth opportunities, Chinese companies face challenges such as unfamiliar business partners, inadequate legal frameworks, and concerns over dumping practices in host countries [9]. - The trade structure, where southern countries primarily export bulk commodities to China while importing manufactured goods, complicates rapid adjustments [9]. - Chinese companies are encouraged to explore the internal market potential of global southern countries and conduct full supply chain R&D tailored to local consumers [9].

Global Trade Dynamics - S&P Global indicates that the shift towards South-South trade could reshape the global commercial order, with China's multinational corporations playing a pivotal role [1] - Over the past decade, China's exports to Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East have doubled [1] - In contrast, China's exports to the US increased by 28%, and to Western Europe by 58% during the same period [1] - The trend of increased South-South trade has accelerated in the five years since the beginning of Trump's first term [1] Regional Trade Integration - Trade integration between Southeast Asia and China is rapidly increasing [1] - Direct investment from China into Southeast Asia is on the rise [1]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the recent U.S. tariff increases are ineffective and that the trend of re-globalization is irreversible [1][3] - It discusses the anxiety in the U.S. regarding its declining global dominance, which has led to current tensions, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations [3][4] - The article highlights that the U.S. has shifted from multilateralism to a more transactional approach, which reveals a lack of strategic coherence [3][4] Group 2 - It points out that the U.S. manufacturing sector's decline is not solely due to trade agreements but is a result of a deep transformation of American capital over the past 40 years [4][5] - The article notes that while the U.S. continues to produce high-end and advanced technology products, these sectors are capital-intensive and cannot replace the jobs lost in labor-intensive manufacturing [4][5] - It mentions that emerging economies are increasingly seeking alternatives to the U.S. dollar for trade, particularly in the context of regional trade agreements [5][6] Group 3 - The article concludes that the U.S.-China trade dispute reflects a broader historical trend towards multipolarity and diversification of global reserve currencies [5][6] - It asserts that the world is not experiencing de-globalization but is instead advancing re-globalization under new conditions and rules [5][6]