Report Overview - Report Title: Gold and Silver Weekly Report [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: November 2, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - This week, London gold fell 2.26%, and London silver rose 1.99%. The gold-silver ratio dropped from 85.6 to 81.7, the 10-year TIPS fell to 1.81%, the 10-year nominal interest rate fell to 4.11% (2-year 3.6%), and the US dollar index was 99.73 [5]. - The prices of precious metals stabilized this week. The outcome of the China-US trade negotiation was in line with expectations, causing the market to return to the narrative of G2 confrontation. Technically, gold near $4,000 has the cost - effectiveness for bottom - fishing. For silver, although the overseas price spread contradiction has eased, the long - term low inventory in the London market remains unsolved. On October 30, the silver lease rate rebounded slightly, and the London - New York price spread showed signs of a rebound. Short - term upward rebound potential in silver is worth attention, while gold has the cost - effectiveness for bottom - fishing but lacks the driving force for a new rise and may require monthly - level oscillations to digest the price [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Positions) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Price Spreads - **Gold**: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to -$74.51 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was -$81.5 per ounce [11]. - **Silver**: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to $0.4062 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was $0.43 per ounce [14]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Price Spreads - **Gold**: This week, the gold spot - futures price spread was -$0.9 per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [18]. - **Silver**: This week, the silver spot - futures price spread was -$31 per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [20]. 3.1.3 Monthly Price Spreads - **Gold**: This week, the gold monthly price spread was $7.12 per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [24]. - **Silver**: This week, the silver monthly price spread was $58 per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [29]. 3.1.4 Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Costs - **Buy TD and Sell Shanghai Gold**: The total cost is $3.34 per gram [32]. - **Buy Shanghai Gold December and Sell June**: The total cost is $15.30 per gram [33]. - **Buy TD and Sell Shanghai Silver**: The total cost is $46.59 per kilogram [34]. - **Buy Shanghai Silver December and Sell June**: The total cost is $179.52 per kilogram [35]. 3.1.5 Shanghai Gold Exchange Spot Deferred Fee Payment Directions - Gold mainly had long - to - short payments, indicating strong delivery power; silver mainly had short - to - long payments, indicating strong receiving power [36]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratios - **COMEX Gold**: Inventory decreased by 0.71 million ounces this week, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52% [38]. - **COMEX Silver**: Inventory decreased by 451 tons to 15,005 tons this week, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 34% [40]. - **Futures Inventory**: Gold futures inventory increased by 0.8 tons, silver futures inventory decreased to 664 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory decreased by 190 tons to 905 tons [42]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - Commercial Positions - COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long positions in gold increased slightly, while those in silver decreased slightly this week [44]. 3.1.8 ETF Positions - **Gold**: The SPDR gold ETF inventory decreased by 13.17 tons this week [50]. - **Silver**: The SLV silver ETF inventory decreased by 230 tons this week [53]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio - The gold - silver ratio fell from 85.6 last week to 81 this week [54]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates - The 3 - month gold lease rate was -0.13%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 4.7% this week [57]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rates**: The correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered this week, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [62]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance**: Data on inflation and retail sales are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn in the report. - **Non - Farm Payroll Performance**: Data on non - farm payroll performance are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn in the report. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: No specific conclusions are drawn in the report. - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: No specific conclusions are drawn in the report. - **Fed Rate - Cut Probability**: No specific data or analysis is provided in the report.