Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - Platinum has reversed its situation and rebounded, while palladium has also rebounded upwards [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Platinum and Palladium Prices**: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 493.10 with a -0.88% change. The gold exchange platinum price was 495.06 with a 1.10% increase. The New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) was 1962.30 with a 3.67% increase. The London spot platinum (previous day) was 1947.60 with a 2.56% increase. The palladium futures 2606 price was 361.40 with a 1.15% increase. The New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) was 1483.50 with a 4.95% increase, and the London spot palladium (previous day) was 1482.50 with a 5.33% increase [2]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: For Guangzhou platinum (kg), the trading volume was 22,242, an increase of 7,748 from the previous day, and the position was 88. For NYMEX platinum (kg), the trading volume was 19,343, a decrease of 4,280 from the previous day, and the position was 75,331, an increase of 2,816. For Guangzhou palladium (kg), the trading volume was 2,900, an increase of 143, and the position was 8,769, an increase of 40. For NYMEX palladium (kg), the trading volume was 12,507, an increase of 858, and the position was 46,030, a decrease of 171 [2]. - **ETF and Inventory**: Platinum ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 3,045,275, a decrease of 1,047. Palladium ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 1,041,712, a decrease of 6,485. The inventory of Guangzhou platinum (kg) was 541,249, and NYMEX platinum (ounces, previous day) decreased by 12,992. The inventory of Guangzhou palladium (kg) was not provided, and NYMEX palladium (ounces, previous day) was 247,765, a decrease of 8 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread of PT9995 to PT2606 was 1.96, a decrease of 7.85 from the previous day. The spread of Guangzhou platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract was 3.00. The spread of Guangzhou palladium 2606 contract to 2610 contract was 2.70, a decrease of 0.20 from the previous day [2]. - **Macro - related Data**: The dollar index was 99.86 with a -0.32% change. The dollar - to - RMB (CNY spot) exchange rate was 6.91 with a -0.05% change, and the dollar - to - offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.92 with a 0.22% change. The dollar - to - RMB (6M forward) was 6.80 with a -0.20% change [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of platinum and palladium is both 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly - positive outlook [4]. - **Other News**: OPEC's March production hit a new low since the peak of the COVID - 19 pandemic. The US customs is promoting a new tariff refund system with a processing time of up to 45 days. Warren Buffett said the stock market valuation is not attractive, he sold Apple too early, and his current cash and equivalents are about $350 billion. The CFTC is focused on combating insider trading in the prediction market and market manipulation in the energy market. There are multiple developments in the Iran situation, including statements from the Iranian president, military deployments, and threats of attacks [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Focus on the switch between liquidity contraction and safe - haven trading. Gold is in a state of shock. The price range is 970 - 1050 yuan/gram. The first wave of liquidity contraction has been relatively sufficient. If the U.S. stocks accelerate their decline and there is a joint sell - off of all - market assets in the future, there may be a second - round sell - off of gold. However, the rebound of gold on Friday night when the U.S. stocks broke down may indicate the return of safe - haven sentiment. Gold has the value of the first - wave bottom - fishing, and it is mainly in a range - bound state in the medium - term, with the decline risk not fully cleared, but it already has buying cost - effectiveness [3]. - Silver: The gold - silver ratio continues to be repaired. Silver is in a state of shock. The price range is 16000 - 18500 yuan/kilogram. Silver bears greater elasticity and volatility, and the gold - silver ratio is in an upward - repair channel [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Spread - Gold: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold main contract rebounded to 3.648 dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold main contract was 2.3 dollars/ounce [8][9]. - Silver: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver main contract rebounded to - 0.045 dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver main contract was - 2.22 dollars/ounce [8][15]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Spread - Gold: This week, the gold spot - futures spread was - 6.21 yuan/gram, at the lower edge of the historical range [19]. - Silver: This week, the silver spot - futures spread was - 22 yuan/gram, at the upper edge of the historical range [22]. 3.1.3 Inter - month Spread - Gold: This week, the gold inter - month spread was 8.22 yuan/gram, at the upper edge of the historical range [26]. - Silver: This week, the silver inter - month spread was 51 yuan/gram, at the lower edge of the historical range [29]. 3.1.4 Cross - month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - Buying TD and shorting Shanghai gold: The total cost is 20.20 yuan/gram [31]. - Buying Shanghai gold December contract and shorting June contract: The total cost is 5.93 yuan/gram [32]. - Buying TD and shorting Shanghai silver: The total cost is 354.11 yuan/kilogram [33]. - Buying Shanghai silver December contract and shorting June contract: The total cost is 341.50 yuan/kilogram [34]. 3.1.5 Delivery Direction of Deferred Fees for Gold and Silver Spot in Shanghai Gold Exchange This week, for gold, the long pays the short, indicating strong delivery power; for silver, the short pays the long, indicating strong receiving power [35]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - Gold: This week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rebounded to 52.4%. The domestic gold futures inventory decreased by 0.2 tons [37][43]. - Silver: This week, COMEX silver inventory decreased by 136 tons to 10211 tons, and the registered warrant ratio fell to 23.2%. The domestic silver futures inventory increased by 9.3 tons to 371 tons [39][43]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - commercial Positions This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold rebounded slightly, and the non - commercial net long position of silver rebounded slightly [45]. 3.1.8 ETF Positions - Gold: This week, the SPDR gold ETF position decreased by 4.29 tons, and the domestic gold ETF position decreased by 12.4 tons [49]. - Silver: This week, the SLV silver ETF position increased by 150 tons [53]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio This week, the gold - silver ratio rebounded from 62 in the previous week to 66 [55]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rate This week, the 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.188%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 2.03% [57]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rates This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates has returned, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [62]. 3.2.2 Inflation and Retail Sales Performance No specific analysis conclusions are provided in the content, only relevant data charts are presented [66]. 3.2.3 Non - farm Employment Performance No specific analysis conclusions are provided in the content, only relevant data charts are presented [68]. 3.2.4 Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions No specific analysis content is provided in the content. 3.2.5 Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index No specific analysis content is provided in the content. 3.2.6 Fed Rate - cut Probability No specific content is provided in the text, only a title is given.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in precious metal prices, with gold and silver experiencing notable drops in both spot and futures markets [2][3] - Spot gold prices fell by 2.82%, while spot silver prices decreased by over 3%, reflecting a broader trend in the precious metals market [2] - COMEX gold and silver also saw declines, with gold dropping over 3% and silver nearly 5%, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [2] Group 2 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) reported a decrease in gold prices, with the opening price at 1081.26, down by 2.91% from the previous close [1] - The highest price recorded for gold was 1089.00, while the lowest was 1078.86, showing volatility within the trading session [1] - For silver, the opening price was 19102, down by 4.78%, with a trading range between a high of 19450 and a low of 18850, indicating significant fluctuations [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cooled down, the US dollar index was strong, precious metals adjusted weakly, and platinum and palladium suffered a significant pullback. The soaring energy prices and the rise of crude oil prices above $90 per barrel had a siphon effect on speculative funds, significantly amplifying the price fluctuations of platinum and palladium. However, there are still uncontrollable geopolitical risks, and positive factors remain. [8][9] - Fundamentally, the global platinum market has been in short supply for two consecutive years. The shrinking supply, rising industrial demand, and relatively low prices have stabilized the demand for jewelry and investment, highlighting the supply - demand contradiction. It is expected that the supply - demand gap of platinum will still exist in the next few years, so the long - term fundamentals of platinum are optimistic. [9] - For palladium, automobile demand dominates. Due to the sharp increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China, the incremental demand for palladium is suppressed, and it is difficult to see improvement in the short term. Therefore, the fundamental support for palladium is limited, and its trend is affected by the linkage with platinum and the macro - environment. Overall, without significant changes in fundamentals, it may move in sync with the trend of precious metals. [9] - In terms of strategies, it is recommended to buy on dips in the medium term, and short - term fluctuations are large. For options, a double - buying strategy is suggested for reference. [9] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Platinum and Palladium Trends**: Last Friday, the main platinum and palladium contracts fell under pressure. The main platinum contract closed down 1.2% at 560.5, and the main palladium contract closed down 1.79% at 421.5. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cooled down last week, the US dollar index was strong, precious metals adjusted weakly, and platinum and palladium fell under pressure. The spot platinum in the outer market closed at 2164.1 early on Saturday, and the spot palladium closed at 1622.6. The weekly declines of domestic platinum and palladium were 10.14% and 9.33% respectively. [8] - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The US manufacturing PMI in February was 52.4, higher than the expected 51.8 and the previous value of 52.6, with the manufacturing PMI remaining in an expansionary range for the second consecutive month. In terms of employment, the US non - farm payrolls in February decreased by 92,000, significantly lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%. The weak US employment data still keeps the market's hope for the Fed's interest rate cut. However, the rise in crude oil prices further intensifies inflation concerns, and the market continues to postpone the expected time of the Fed's interest rate cut. The Fed will hold a meeting on March 18, and the market generally expects the interest rate to remain unchanged. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the first interest rate cut is expected to be in July. [8] - **News**: On February 28, the US and Israel launched a large - scale air strike on Iran, killing Iran's supreme leader and many senior military and political officials. Iran then counterattacked the US military bases in the Gulf and Israel, and some Middle Eastern countries were affected. The traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz plummeted, and the Iranian Self - Defense Forces reiterated the closure of the strait and claimed "full control." Energy prices soared, and the crude oil price rose above $90 per barrel, having a siphon effect on speculative funds and significantly amplifying the price fluctuations of platinum and palladium. [8] - **Fundamentals**: In 2026, the supply and demand of platinum and palladium are expected to show obvious differentiation. Platinum supply is continuously restricted, with South Africa accounting for over 70% of global production. Its demand structure is diversified, with automobile exhaust catalysts accounting for only about 40%, and the rest coming from investment, jewelry, and industrial fields. Against the background of rising platinum prices, investment demand has increased significantly, and emerging fields such as the hydrogen energy industry and commercial aerospace have opened up long - term growth space. It is expected that the supply - demand gap of platinum will continue in 2026 and may further widen. Palladium's terminal demand is highly dependent on automobile exhaust catalysts, accounting for over 80%. Suppressed by the accelerated penetration of new energy vehicles and the substitution trend of platinum, the growth of palladium demand lacks imagination. Although there is still a supply gap in the short term, it is expected that the gap will narrow significantly in 2026, and the fundamental support is relatively limited. [8] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Multiple charts are provided, including the futures and spot price trends of platinum and palladium in NYMEX, London, Guangzhou Futures Exchange, and Shanghai Gold Exchange, showing the price trends of platinum and palladium in different markets. [13][17][21][25] 3. US Economy - Multiple charts are provided, including the trends of US GDP, PMI, non - farm payrolls, and unemployment rate, reflecting the overall economic situation of the United States. [31][32] 4. Inflation - Charts of US CPI/PCE and core CPI/PCE are provided, showing the inflation situation in the United States. [38] 5. Interest Rates - Charts of US Treasury bond yields (short - term and medium - long - term) and real interest rates are provided, reflecting the interest rate situation in the United States. [47][48] 6. Fundamentals - **Platinum**: The global platinum supply - demand balance sheet from 2013 to 2026f is provided, showing the supply and demand situation of platinum in different regions and application fields, and it is expected that the supply - demand gap will continue in 2026. [53] - **Palladium**: The global palladium supply - demand balance sheet from 2009 to 2025 is provided, showing the supply and demand situation of palladium in different regions and application fields, and it is expected that the supply - demand gap will narrow significantly in 2026. [54] 7. Futures Positioning - Charts of the futures position of platinum and palladium in the outer market are provided, including non - commercial net long positions and total positions, reflecting the market's trading sentiment towards platinum and palladium. [55] 8. Passenger Car Sales - Charts of China's passenger car market retail and wholesale data are provided, showing the sales situation of the passenger car market. [62] 9. US Dollar Index and Exchange Rates - Charts of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, euro - US dollar exchange rate, US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate, British pound - US dollar exchange rate, and US dollar - Canadian dollar exchange rate are provided, reflecting the exchange rate situation. [68][71][74][76] 10. Platinum and Palladium Price Differences between Domestic and Foreign Markets - Charts of the spot price trends and price differences of platinum between domestic and foreign markets are provided, showing the price differences of platinum in different markets. [85] 11. Platinum - Palladium Ratio - A chart of the platinum - palladium ratio is provided, showing the price ratio relationship between platinum and palladium. [94]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Platinum generally follows gold and silver, showing wide - range fluctuations; palladium's high - frequency data is pessimistic. Platinum is neutral, and palladium is weak. The price ranges are 500 - 620 yuan/gram for Guangbo platinum and 380 - 450 yuan/gram for Guangbo palladium [3]. - The recent upward movement of platinum and palladium in the past month was driven by news. The specific news includes the US Commerce Department's preliminary determination of Russian unforged palladium dumping and Zimbabwe's export restrictions on raw minerals. The increase in electricity prices in South Africa is expected to raise the mining cost of platinum and palladium, but it may not linearly restrict production. High - frequency data shows internal conflicts for platinum and overall pessimism for palladium. The sector's sentiment is pessimistic due to factors such as capital flight and changes in global liquidity. Palladium is expected to remain weak, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions. For platinum, pay attention to its performance in the range of 2400 - 2500 US dollars per ounce. Arbitrage and platinum - palladium ratio strategies are recommended [4]. Summary by Directory Trading (Price, Spread, Capital, and Position) - **Trading Volume and Position**: As of the end of this week, the total position of Guangbo platinum was 27,378 lots, and the trading volume was 60,557 lots; the total position of Guangbo palladium was 9,222 lots, and the trading volume was 19,203 lots. Platinum's position decreased, while palladium's position increased slightly. The trading volumes of both platinum and palladium increased [7]. - **Platinum - Palladium Ratio**: This week, the platinum - palladium ratio converged rapidly as prices fell from high levels. Then, palladium's trend became weaker, and the London platinum - palladium ratio rose above 1.33. It is expected that palladium will lose its upward momentum in the short term, and the price divergence between platinum and palladium will continue [11]. - **Overseas Spot - Futures Spread**: For platinum, the spread between London platinum spot and NYMEX platinum main contract was inverted this week, indicating tight London spot supply. The spread between NYMEX platinum continuous and NYMEX platinum main contract widened significantly, with a weekly average of 101 US dollars per ounce. For palladium, the London palladium spot price was lower than the NYMEX palladium main contract price except on Wednesday. The spread between NYMEX palladium continuous and NYMEX palladium main contract remained stable, with a weekly average of - 30.1 US dollars per ounce [14][17]. - **Arbitrage Opportunities**: - Platinum spot - futures positive arbitrage: The cost is 5.2 yuan/gram, and the spread is 8.5 yuan/gram, with little arbitrage space [20]. - Palladium spot - futures positive arbitrage: The cost is 3.8 yuan/gram, and the spread is 33.5 yuan/gram, with a profit window of 29.7 yuan/gram [22]. - Platinum near - far month cross - month positive arbitrage: The cost is 7.4 yuan/gram, and the spread is - 10.8 yuan/gram, and the arbitrage window is not open [24]. - Palladium near - far month cross - month positive arbitrage: The cost is 5.7 yuan/gram, and the spread is - 6 yuan/gram, and the arbitrage window is not open [26]. - Platinum internal - external arbitrage: The cost is 65.2 yuan/gram, and the spread is 82.4 yuan/gram, with a profit window of 17.2 yuan/gram [28]. - Palladium internal - external arbitrage: The cost is 50.4 yuan/gram, and the spread is 58.6 yuan/gram, with a profit window of 58.2 yuan/gram [30]. - Platinum import parity calculation: The cost is 62.1 yuan/gram, and the spread is 98 yuan/gram, with a profit window of 27.9 yuan/gram [32]. - Palladium import parity calculation: The cost is 49.1 yuan/gram, and the spread is 56.8 yuan/gram, with a profit window of 7.7 yuan/gram [34]. - **Recycling Spread**: This week, the platinum recycling discount converged to 80 yuan/gram, and the average palladium recycling discount remained at about 63 yuan/gram [37]. - **ETF Position**: This week, the platinum ETF position decreased by 0.68 tons (about 22,200 ounces), and the palladium ETF position decreased by 0.49 tons (about 15,900 ounces). The continuous outflow of platinum and palladium ETFs does not currently indicate a trend reversal, and the ETF flow needs to be closely monitored [39]. Fundamentals (Inventory and Import - Export Data) - **Forward Discount Rate**: In the past four months, the overseas forward markets for platinum and palladium have been in a discount structure. This week, the platinum forward discount rate continued to rise rapidly, with the 3M, 6M, and 1Y terms reaching an annualized rate of over 5%. The palladium forward structure continued to be loose, with all terms within 2% [44]. - **Inventory and Registered Warehouse Receipt Ratio**: - Platinum: This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory decreased slightly to 582,440 ounces (about 18.11 tons), and the proportion of registered warehouse receipts increased slightly to 53.8% [45]. - Palladium: This week, the NYMEX palladium inventory increased slightly to 205,098 ounces (about 6.38 tons), and the proportion of registered warehouse receipts decreased to 79.1% [48]. - **China's Import - Export Data**: - Platinum: Since September 2025, platinum exports have increased significantly, and the import volume and net inflow have diverged. Since January 2020, the cumulative net inflow has been 553.88 tons. In December, both import and export amounts increased, with imports of 5.57 tons, exports of 2.86 tons, and a net inflow of only 2.71 tons. 2026 data has not been released [56]. - Palladium: Since 2020, palladium has had almost no exports and is in a state of pure import, with a cumulative net inflow of 170.74 tons. In December, the import amount increased to 5.68 tons, and the net inflow was 5.63 tons. 2026 data has not been released [56]. - **London Fixing Supply - Demand Balance**: - Platinum: This week, the London platinum fixing supply - demand balance was positive [59]. - Palladium: On March 2nd, the London palladium fixing supply - demand balance was in the - 100KG range, and the weekly average was - 6.1KG [61].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are intensifying, with the continuous spread of the conflict between Iran and Israel, which has led to a rise in energy prices and reignited market inflation concerns [1] - Traders' bets on the probability of the Fed's second interest rate cut this year have dropped to 50%, significantly raising the threshold for interest rate cuts, which has a significant suppressing effect on precious metal prices [1] - Due to the current market conditions, the prices of gold and silver are expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the near future [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are intensifying, with Iran and Israel engaging in continuous attacks and counterattacks. The new round of stock selling wave driven by Trump's stance has led to a continuous rise in energy prices and reignited market inflation concerns [1] - Traders' bets on the probability of the Fed's second interest rate cut this year have dropped to 50%, significantly raising the threshold for interest rate cuts, which has a significant suppressing effect on precious metal prices [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On March 3, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,199.52 yuan/gram and closed at 1,182.00 yuan/gram, a change of -1.27% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on that day was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 1,163.20 yuan/gram and closed at 1,144.98 yuan/gram, a 3.13% decline from the afternoon close [2] - On March 3, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 24,449.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 21,645.00 yuan/kilogram, a change of -11.40% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume on that day was 713,888 lots, and the open interest was 161,172 lots. In the night session, it opened at 21,300 yuan/kilogram and closed at 21,521 yuan/kilogram, a 0.57% decline from the afternoon close [2] U.S. Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 3, 2026, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.059%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries was 0.557%, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volumes of Gold and Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, the number of long positions decreased by 9,573 lots compared to the previous day, while the number of short positions decreased by 741 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract on the previous trading day was 544,885 lots, a change of 24.12% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2604 contract, the number of long positions decreased by 4,558 lots, and the number of short positions decreased by 5,767 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract on the previous trading day was 1,910,286 lots, a change of 43.74% from the previous trading day [4] Tracking of Precious Metal ETF Positions - The gold ETF position was 1,101.33 tons, an increase of 3.43 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,902 tons, a decrease of 90 tons from the previous trading day [5] Tracking of Precious Metal Arbitrage - On March 3, 2026, the domestic premium for gold was 18.57 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium for silver was 1,826.31 yuan/kilogram [6] - The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was approximately 54.61, a change of 11.44% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 56.97, a change of -3.96% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamentals - On March 3, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 81,118 kilograms, a change of 33.10% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 504,106 kilograms, a change of -38.53% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7] Strategies - Gold: It is expected that the gold price will mainly be in a volatile pattern in the near future, with the Au2604 contract's volatility range likely to be between 1,100 yuan/gram and 1,200 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: Similar to gold, the silver price is also expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with the Ag2604 contract's volatility range likely to be between 21,000 yuan/kilogram and 23,000 yuan/kilogram [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [9] - Options: Hold off [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The joint military strike by the US and Israel has led to a sharp escalation of the Middle East situation, and the tail risk in the Middle East has rapidly increased. The current geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has become the core driver of short - term precious metal prices, and the prices of gold and silver are expected to gap up at the opening [2][3]. - If the war continues to expand, the upward trend of precious metals may continue; if the US and Iran restart negotiations and the situation eases, the prices will likely return to high - level oscillations. At the same time, short - term fluctuations caused by taking profits at high levels need to be vigilant [2][3]. - In terms of strategy, maintain a bullish stance in the short term. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 1130 - 1200 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver, it is 23000 - 25000 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Content 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 1.31% to 1159.98 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 1.88% to 23927.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold rose 1.97% to 5296.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 7.77% to 94.39 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 3.97%, and the US dollar index was reported at 97.64 [2]. 3.2 Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) was 5296.40 US dollars/ounce, up 1.82%; trading volume was 14.52 million lots, up 13.88%; open interest was 42.02 million lots, up 3.22%; inventory was 1036 tons, down 0.50%. LBMA Gold's closing price was 5222.30 US dollars/ounce, up 1.06%. SHFE Gold's closing price (active contract) was 1147.90 yuan/gram, up 0.12%; trading volume was 25.57 million lots, up 13.83%; open interest was 30.23 million lots, up 0.42%; inventory was 105.06 tons, down 0.01%; the settled funds were 55.515 billion yuan, up 0.54%. AuT + D's trading volume was 38.41 tons, up 36.63%; open interest was 235.98 tons, down 1.97% [6]. - **Silver**: COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) was 94.39 US dollars/ounce, up 6.21%; open interest was 12.55 million lots, down 4.59%; inventory was 11208 tons, down 0.08%. LBMA Silver's closing price was 89.98 US dollars/ounce, up 4.10%. SHFE Silver's closing price (active contract) was 23019.00 yuan/kilogram, up 1.98%; trading volume was 101.32 million lots, up 7.07%; open interest was 52.47 million lots, up 3.24%; inventory was 306.60 tons, down 11.48%; the settled funds were 32.614 billion yuan, up 5.28%. AgT + D's trading volume was 498.86 tons, up 120.01%; open interest was 2988.126 tons, down 2.81% [6]. 3.3 ETF Holdings of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: The closing price of SPDR US was 483.75 US dollars, up 1.31%; the holding volume was 1101.33 tons, up 0.31%; the settled funds were 18.4864 billion US dollars, up 1.38%; the trading volume was 16.6465 million shares, up 61.63%. The holding volumes of iShare US, GBS UK, PHAU UK, SGBS Switzerland remained unchanged, and the holding volume of GOLD UK was 29.81 tons, up 0.12% [60]. - **Silver**: The closing price was 84.99 US dollars, up 5.64%. The holding volume of SLV US was 15992.40 tons, down 0.65%; the settled funds were 4.6246 billion US dollars, up 3.43%; the trading volume was 69.1792 million shares, up 32.91%. The holding volumes of ETPMAG Australia, PSLV Canada, CEF Canada remained unchanged [60].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is expected to face a supply shortage for the sixth consecutive year by 2026, which may lead to continued strong performance in silver prices due to tight physical market supply [1]. Group 1: Silver Market Performance - COMEX silver closed at $94.36 per ounce on Friday, February 28, with a 6.18% increase, reaching a high of $94.76 and a low of $88.31 [1]. - Silver futures speculators increased their net long positions by 1,822 contracts, bringing the total to 7,981 contracts, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market [3]. - The low registration warehouse ratio for silver continues to support short-term prices, with expectations of significant price volatility ahead [3]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Short-term outlook for silver is cautiously bullish, maintaining above the rising 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, with a key resistance target at $100.00 [4]. - The first resistance level for silver futures is at $88.00, with further resistance at the overnight high of $90.255; support levels are at $84.56 and $82.50 [4]. Group 3: Broader Economic Context - The overall bullish trend in precious metals, including gold, suggests that investors are increasing long positions to hedge against potential downside risks [3]. - The Trump administration is reportedly working on legal strategies to retain billions in tariffs deemed illegal by the Supreme Court, which may impact market dynamics [3].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has entered a phase of adjustment after a strong rally at the beginning of the year, with profit-taking by short-term futures traders becoming the main theme of the market [1][2]. Market Dynamics - External financial environment changes, including a slight rebound in the US dollar index and stable 10-year US Treasury yields at around 4.05%, have contributed to the recent pullback in precious metals [3][4]. - The price of crude oil remains at $66.50 per barrel, supporting inflation expectations but unable to offset the short-term impact of technical selling [4]. Pricing Mechanism - The gold spot and futures markets are experiencing seasonal liquidity adjustments, with the CME's December gold futures contract becoming the focal point of market capital dynamics [4]. - Current market consolidation is attributed more to psychological fluctuations among bulls near the $5200 level rather than a complete reversal of fundamentals [4]. Technical Targets - Gold bulls are eyeing the strong resistance level at $5400, with the immediate goal being to reclaim this week's high of $5269.40. Conversely, if bearish forces strengthen, the technical support at $4854.20 will be tested [2][4]. - The overall market performance of gold remains strong, with significant buying support near this week's low of $5109.50 despite recent declines [4]. Silver Market Outlook - The silver market is characterized by more aggressive trading, with bulls aiming to break the $100.00 technical barrier. The recent drop to $86.81 has established a new offensive benchmark at the overnight high of $90.255 [5]. - As long as prices do not fall below the February low of $71.815, the upward oscillation pattern for silver remains intact, with investors advised to monitor the support level at $84.56 and market sentiment for potential reversals [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current precious metal prices are in a sideways consolidation. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff plan, the tense situation of the third round of US - Iran nuclear negotiations, and the solid fundamentals support the prices. However, the statements of Fed officials and the market's expectation of the US maintaining short - term interest rates unchanged pose resistance. The prices are likely to remain in a high - level oscillation in the future. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines for now. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 1130 - 1200 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 22000 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold fell 0.25% to 1146.04 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver fell 1.88% to 22219.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold fell 0.36% to 5207.60 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver fell 2.54% to 89.30 US dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was reported at 4.02%, and the US dollar index was reported at 97.77 [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - The current precious metal fundamentals are still strong. COMEX continues the de - stocking trend. The de - stocking intensity of silver has increased, with the total inventory at 11217.13 tons (-37.49 tons), and the gold inventory has decreased for two consecutive days, currently at 1045.93 tons (-2.29 tons). In 2026, the global silver gap is expected to reach 67 million ounces, showing a supply shortage for six consecutive years. The rigid industrial demand in the fields of AI data centers, electric vehicles, and semiconductor manufacturing further strengthens the support for silver prices. In 2026, the global central bank's gold purchase volume is expected to reach 755 tons, which is lower than the previous peak but still much higher than the average level of 400 - 500 tons per year before 2022, providing support for the gold price [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - Keep a wait - and - see attitude for now. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 1130 - 1200 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 22000 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [4] 3.4 Data Summary - A large amount of data on gold and silver, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and precipitation funds of different trading platforms (COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, etc.), as well as the daily changes, daily price changes, and historical quantiles of these data are provided [7]