本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【11月24日纽约尾盘多类贵金属期货价格有涨有跌】11月25日消息，周一纽约尾盘，现货黄金涨1.8%， 报4138.26美元/盎司，13:22微跌至4040.25美元刷新日低后持续上涨。COMEX黄金期货涨1.44%，报 4138.00美元/盎司，日内交投区间为4036.40 - 4138.20美元。现货白银涨2.69%，报51.3688美元/盎司， COMEX白银期货涨2.53%，报51.175美元/盎司。COMEX铜期货跌0.25%，报5.0025美元/磅，欧股开盘 以来呈V形走势。现货铂金涨1.86%，报1549.95美元/盎司，现货钯金涨0.90%，报1392.89美元/盎司。 和讯猎报 11.25 06:37:45 周= 黄金白银等贵金属: 11.24纽约尾盘涨 跌不一 扫码查看原文 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 【11月24日纽约尾盘多类贵金属期货价格有涨有 跌】 11月25日消息,周一纽约尾盘,现货黄金涨 1.8%,报4138.26美元/盎司,13:22微跌至4040.25 ...

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：高位震荡；白银：风险资产属性催化下跌 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银中性 价格区间：900-950元/克、11400-12400元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升0.04%，伦敦银回落5.97%。金银比从前周的78.4回升至83.1，10年期TIPS回升至1.82%，10年期名义利率回落至 4.06%（2年期3.62%），美元指数录得100.15。 ◆ 本周白银大幅回落，主要受到海外风险偏好回落以及权益下跌影响，而其本质在于AI投资热潮搭建起来的高估值科技公司是否能兑现 回报。我们上周提及，在近期风险偏好不稳且静待美国数据公布之时，白银脱离宏观商品独自上涨的可能性较小，且目前看 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Gold and Silver Weekly Report [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Liu Yuxuan [2] - Date: November 16, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Gold: There is a slight increase in market risk aversion due to geopolitical issues such as the Taiwan Strait situation. The release of backlogged economic data after the end of the US government shutdown may affect the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to pay attention to the impact of these factors on gold prices [3]. - Silver: Although there is some pressure for silver to break through the previous high, it is only a matter of time to break through new highs. It is advisable to pay attention to the entry opportunities after this round of corrections [3]. 3. Content Summaries by Directory 3.1 Transaction Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) - **Price Performance** - This week, London gold rose 1.93%, and London silver rose 6.81%. The gold - silver ratio dropped from 82.1 to 78.4. The 10 - year TIPS rose to 1.86%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.14% (2 - year 3.62%), and the US dollar index was 99.28 [3]. - Various gold and silver futures and spot prices also showed different degrees of changes, such as the 7.55% increase in the weekly price of Shanghai Silver 2512 [4]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Overseas Spread**: The spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to - 2.241 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was 2.1 dollars per ounce. The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to 0.117 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was 0.58 dollars per ounce [9][12]. - **Domestic Spread**: The gold futures - spot spread was - 5.22 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range; the silver futures - spot spread was - 25 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 7.92 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range; the silver monthly spread was 67 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16][19][23][28]. - **Inventory and Position Analysis** - **COMEX Inventory**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 10 tons, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 52.1%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 138 tons to 14,795 tons, and the registered warehouse receipt ratio rose to 32.8% [37][39]. - **Futures and Exchange Inventory**: Gold futures inventory increased by 0.81 tons, silver futures inventory decreased by 46 tons to 576 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory decreased by 82 tons to 822 tons [41]. - **CFTC Position**: This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, while that of silver decreased slightly [43]. - **ETF Position**: The inventory of the gold SPDR ETF increased by 3.65 tons, and the inventory of the silver SLV ETF increased by 129 tons [49][51]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold - **Relationship with Real Interest Rates**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [62]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales**: Data on US PCE and core PCE year - on - year changes are presented, which can reflect the inflation situation and may affect gold prices [68]. - **Non - farm Employment Performance**: Information on indicators such as US non - farm employment, initial jobless claims, and unemployment rates is provided, which are important factors affecting the Fed's monetary policy and gold prices [70][72][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, the trading volume of commodity options increased slightly, with only the trading volume of the precious metals sector decreasing. Most varieties are in a volatility - reduction cycle, and it is advisable to move short - option positions to far - month contracts in advance to avoid end - of - contract risks [4]. - The options of the black sector showed increased volatility and trading volume. Affected by the decline in iron ore futures prices, the implied volatility of black options has risen. The previous policy - driven boost has basically been realized, and the market trading logic has returned to fundamentals. There is a lack of new macro - drivers, and the upward momentum of prices has been weakened. The implied volatility still has room to rise, and it is advisable to buy a bearish put spread portfolio to hedge against the downward market [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of commodity options increased slightly last week, with the precious metals sector being the only one with a decline in trading volume. Energy and chemical products such as short - fiber, PTA, methanol, glass, crude oil, caustic soda, soda ash, and bottle chips are about to expire on Wednesday. Most varieties are in a volatility - reduction cycle [4]. - The options of the black sector showed increased volatility and trading volume. The implied volatility of black options has risen due to the decline in iron ore futures prices. The previous policy - driven boost has basically been realized, and the market trading logic has returned to fundamentals [4]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - The table shows the quantitative data of commodity options, including the flat - value volatility, 60 - day quantile, Skew, and 60 - day quantile of various varieties such as corn, soybean meal, and crude oil [12]. 3.2.2 - 3.2.54 Option Data of Each Variety - For each variety (such as corn, soybean meal, etc.), the data includes the closing price, trading volume, open interest, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, flat - value volatility, HV - 10 days, HV - 20 days, and Skew of the main contract, secondary - main contract, and all contracts [13][14][15] etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, London gold fell 0.43%, and London silver fell 0.54%. The gold - silver ratio rose from 81.7 the previous week to 82.1. The 10 - year TIPS fell to 1.83%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate fell to 4.11% (2 - year 3.55%), and the US dollar index was 99.54. The precious metals market was in a volatile state with unclear drivers, and the upcoming December FOMC meeting of the Fed is facing a difficult decision - making situation in an information vacuum. The government shutdown is a key factor, and the swing between risk - off and risk - on will determine the market trend next week [6]. - Gold is in a high - level adjustment, and silver's volatility is determined by market risk preference. The strength - weakness analysis shows that gold is neutral, and silver is neutral. The price ranges are 890 - 950 yuan/gram for gold and 11000 - 11700 yuan/kilogram for silver [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Spread - Gold: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold main contract fell to - 7.51 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold main contract was 12.6 US dollars/ounce [12]. - Silver: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver main contract rose to 0.101 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver main contract was - 0.21 US dollars/ounce [15]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Spread - Gold: This week, the gold spot - futures spread was - 3.62 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [19]. - Silver: This week, the silver spot - futures spread was - 4 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [23]. 3.1.3 Monthly Spread - Gold: This week, the gold monthly spread was 7.56 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [28]. - Silver: This week, the silver monthly spread was 54 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [31]. 3.1.4 Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - For gold (buy TD and sell Shanghai gold, buy Shanghai gold December and sell June), the total costs are 2.91 yuan/gram and 15.17 yuan/gram respectively [34][35]. - For silver (buy TD and sell Shanghai silver, buy Shanghai silver December and sell June), the total costs are 37.53 yuan/kilogram and 178.15 yuan/kilogram respectively [36][37]. 3.1.5 Deferred Fee Payment Direction - This week, in the Shanghai Gold Exchange, gold's deferred fee was mainly paid from long to short, indicating strong delivery power, while silver's was mainly paid from short to long, indicating strong receiving power [38]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - Inventory Ratio - Gold: This week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.44 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52.4%. Gold futures inventory increased by 1.8 tons [40][44]. - Silver: This week, COMEX silver inventory decreased by 72.25 tons to 14993 tons, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 34%. Silver futures inventory decreased to 42 tons, and the SGE silver inventory decreased by 24 tons to 830 tons [42][44]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - Commercial Position - This week, COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long position in gold increased slightly, while that in silver decreased slightly [46]. 3.1.8 ETF Position - Gold: This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 1.71 tons [52]. - Silver: This week, the silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 101.18 tons [54]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio - This week, the gold - silver ratio rose from 81.7 last week to 82.1 [56]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rate - This week, the 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.13%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 4.7% [58]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rate - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rate recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [63].

Group 1 - International precious metal futures experienced a general decline, with COMEX gold futures dropping by 1.81% to $3941.30 per ounce and COMEX silver futures falling by 2.40% to $46.90 per ounce [1] - The surge in gold prices has been noted to exceed the performance driven by large tech stocks in the Nasdaq, indicating a potential bubble behavior characterized by self-reinforcing momentum [1] - There is a concern that any panic from missed opportunities could amplify market excitement, even in response to marginal or unrelated events [1] Group 2 - Despite some opinions labeling the current rise in gold prices as a bubble, there are logical reasons for the increase, including changes in the monetary and financial system, a weak dollar, and gold's role as a monetary anchor and inflation hedge [4]

Group 1 - The spot gold price accelerated its decline, breaking below $3940 per ounce, with a daily drop of 1.63% [1][2] - The spot silver price also fell over 2%, currently reported at $47.016 per ounce [1] - In the futures market, the main contracts for precious metals saw short-term declines, with Shanghai gold down 1.57%, currently at 904.74 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver dropping over 2%, currently at 11113 yuan per kilogram [4] Group 2 - The highest price for spot gold reached $4005.940, while the lowest was $3933.415 [2] - The trading volume for spot gold was noted at 0, indicating a lack of significant trading activity during this period [2] - The average price for the day was not specified, but the market showed a consistent downward trend [2]

Core Viewpoint - International precious metals closed mixed on November 3, with COMEX gold futures rising while COMEX silver futures declined [1][2] Group 1: Gold Market - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.43%, closing at $4013.7 per ounce [1] Group 2: Silver Market - COMEX silver futures decreased by 0.52%, closing at $47.91 per ounce [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Powell's hawkish stance means the release of expectations for the Fed's loose monetary policy requires time, but the Fed Chair has explained balance - sheet expansion. The December interest - rate cut is uncertain, while the subsequent "rate cut + balance - sheet expansion" monetary policy is emphasized [2] - In the loose monetary policy cycle, combined with potential spot shortages, it is recommended to buy silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 11001 - 12366 yuan/kilogram [2] Group 3: Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.39% to 921.84 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver fell 0.25% to 11382.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold was at 4013.40 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver was at 48.25 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.11%, and the US dollar index was 99.73 [1] - As of October 31, 2025, the overseas spot silver implied lease rate was 5.95%, the overseas silver EFP rate was 0.35 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 1537 tons from the high on October 3 to 15005.53 tons [1] Group 4: Historical Price Drivers - Changes in the Fed's balance sheet have a more significant impact on precious - metal prices than interest - rate policies. In May 2024, the Fed slowed QT, and the COMEX silver price rose 19.7% from May 2 to May 21 [1] - In August 2010, Bernanke's speech hinted at QE2, and from the end of August 2010 to the end of April 2011, the COMEX silver price soared 169% [1] Group 5: Silver Spot Situation - The previous tight - spot situation driving silver prices has eased, but COMEX silver is still in the process of continuous de - stocking, and the London silver premium over New York silver rebounded last Friday. The continuous de - stocking of COMEX silver indicates strong physical demand for silver in the fourth quarter [1] Group 6: Key Data Summary - For gold on October 31, 2025, the COMEX closing price rose 0.96%, the trading volume fell 98.56%, the position increased 2.43%, and the inventory decreased 0.20%. Similar data for other gold - related indicators are also provided [5] - For silver on October 31, 2025, the COMEX closing price fell 0.99%, the position increased 1.75%, the inventory decreased 0.14%. Similar data for other silver - related indicators are also provided [5]

Report Overview - Report Title: Gold and Silver Weekly Report [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: November 2, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - This week, London gold fell 2.26%, and London silver rose 1.99%. The gold-silver ratio dropped from 85.6 to 81.7, the 10-year TIPS fell to 1.81%, the 10-year nominal interest rate fell to 4.11% (2-year 3.6%), and the US dollar index was 99.73 [5]. - The prices of precious metals stabilized this week. The outcome of the China-US trade negotiation was in line with expectations, causing the market to return to the narrative of G2 confrontation. Technically, gold near $4,000 has the cost - effectiveness for bottom - fishing. For silver, although the overseas price spread contradiction has eased, the long - term low inventory in the London market remains unsolved. On October 30, the silver lease rate rebounded slightly, and the London - New York price spread showed signs of a rebound. Short - term upward rebound potential in silver is worth attention, while gold has the cost - effectiveness for bottom - fishing but lacks the driving force for a new rise and may require monthly - level oscillations to digest the price [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, and Positions) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Price Spreads - **Gold**: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to -$74.51 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was -$81.5 per ounce [11]. - **Silver**: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to $0.4062 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was $0.43 per ounce [14]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Price Spreads - **Gold**: This week, the gold spot - futures price spread was -$0.9 per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [18]. - **Silver**: This week, the silver spot - futures price spread was -$31 per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [20]. 3.1.3 Monthly Price Spreads - **Gold**: This week, the gold monthly price spread was $7.12 per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [24]. - **Silver**: This week, the silver monthly price spread was $58 per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [29]. 3.1.4 Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Costs - **Buy TD and Sell Shanghai Gold**: The total cost is $3.34 per gram [32]. - **Buy Shanghai Gold December and Sell June**: The total cost is $15.30 per gram [33]. - **Buy TD and Sell Shanghai Silver**: The total cost is $46.59 per kilogram [34]. - **Buy Shanghai Silver December and Sell June**: The total cost is $179.52 per kilogram [35]. 3.1.5 Shanghai Gold Exchange Spot Deferred Fee Payment Directions - Gold mainly had long - to - short payments, indicating strong delivery power; silver mainly had short - to - long payments, indicating strong receiving power [36]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratios - **COMEX Gold**: Inventory decreased by 0.71 million ounces this week, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 52% [38]. - **COMEX Silver**: Inventory decreased by 451 tons to 15,005 tons this week, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 34% [40]. - **Futures Inventory**: Gold futures inventory increased by 0.8 tons, silver futures inventory decreased to 664 tons, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory decreased by 190 tons to 905 tons [42]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - Commercial Positions - COMEX CFTC non - commercial net long positions in gold increased slightly, while those in silver decreased slightly this week [44]. 3.1.8 ETF Positions - **Gold**: The SPDR gold ETF inventory decreased by 13.17 tons this week [50]. - **Silver**: The SLV silver ETF inventory decreased by 230 tons this week [53]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio - The gold - silver ratio fell from 85.6 last week to 81 this week [54]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates - The 3 - month gold lease rate was -0.13%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 4.7% this week [57]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rates**: The correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered this week, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [62]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance**: Data on inflation and retail sales are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn in the report. - **Non - Farm Payroll Performance**: Data on non - farm payroll performance are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn in the report. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: No specific conclusions are drawn in the report. - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: No specific conclusions are drawn in the report. - **Fed Rate - Cut Probability**: No specific data or analysis is provided in the report.