南华宏观专题 —— 美国2026年中期选举的"驴象之争"（下篇） 周骥 （投资咨询证号：Z0017101） 联系邮件：zhouji@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月19日 主要观点 综合来看，2026年中期选举对特朗普及共和党而言，本质上构成一场压力叠加的艰难防御战。从历史维 度来看，作为执政党，共和党天然面临美国中期选举中"执政党大概率失利"的历史惯性制约，这一长期形 成的选举魔咒为其选情埋下潜在隐患。从现实环境分析，特朗普个人的民调表现持续承压，其在一系列关键 政策议题上的争议性立场进一步加剧了选民分化，为共和党的选举动员蒙上阴影。从结构性因素考量，马斯 克"美国党"的潜在入局可能打破传统两党竞争格局，分流部分核心选票，而民主党在堕胎权等社会议题上 已被验证的强大选民动员能力，将持续对共和党形成针对性制衡。基于上述挑战，除非未来一年内出现足以 显著提振共和党支持率的重大利好事件（如美国经济实现超预期繁荣、特朗普政府成功处置重大外交危机 等），否则共和党丧失众议院控制权的概率相对较高。而参议院的选举竞争因受具体席位防御分布的影响， 将呈现更为焦灼的态势， ...

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Private equity firms in China are showing increasing optimism, with stock private equity institutions' average positions rising to the highest level of the year at 78.04% as of September 12, up 2.96 percentage points from the previous week [1] - The proportion of private equity firms with heavy or full positions (over 80%) has significantly increased to 60.02%, a rise of 5.81 percentage points week-on-week, while the proportion of firms with no positions has decreased to 5.08%, down 0.77 percentage points [1] - Different scales of private equity firms are maintaining high positions, with those managing over 10 billion yuan averaging 78.22%, and those between 5 billion to 10 billion yuan averaging 86.49%, the highest among all categories [1] Group 2: Performance and Market Trends - The top 100 subjective private equity firms have achieved an average return of 37.43% year-to-date, while the top quantitative firms have an average return of 26.69% [2] - The "Dai Shui Quan Growth Phase I" product from the leading private equity firm Dai Shui Quan has reported a return exceeding 50% [2] - The market is exhibiting a "slow bull" characteristic, with investor risk appetite remaining high, driven by liquidity, fundamentals, and external factors [2] Group 3: Sector Performance and Strategy - There is a clear market stratification, with significant gains in sectors like telecommunications, electronics, and non-ferrous metals, while coal and steel sectors have seen minimal increases [3] - The firm "Jia Gu Capital" emphasizes the importance of understanding one's capability circle and leveraging comparative advantages in familiar areas to maximize returns [3] - The firm suggests using industry ETFs or other tools to adjust investment allocations in response to macroeconomic changes, rather than strictly focusing on bottom-up stock selection [3]

Group 1 - The overall sentiment among private equity institutions remains optimistic despite market fluctuations, with stock private equity institutions' average positions reaching a year-to-date high of 78.04% as of September 12 [1] - The proportion of private equity institutions with heavy or full positions (over 80%) has significantly increased to 60.02%, up by 5.81 percentage points from the previous week, while the proportion of those with no positions has decreased to 5.08% [1] - Different scales of private equity institutions show high average positions, with large-scale institutions (over 10 billion) averaging 78.22%, and those between 5 billion to 10 billion averaging 86.49%, indicating a general trend of maintaining high positions across various sizes [1] Group 2 - The top 100 subjective private equity firms have achieved an average return of 37.43% year-to-date, while the top quantitative private equity firms have an average return of 26.69% [2] - The market is exhibiting a "slow bull" characteristic, with investor risk appetite remaining high, driven by liquidity, fundamentals, and external factors, leading to a shift from "certainty priority" to "growth priority" [2] - Emerging growth opportunities, such as new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, and AI hardware, are becoming significant market drivers, reflecting a renewed focus on fundamental growth rather than just certainty [2] Group 3 - Large private equity institutions, such as Jiangju Capital, observe a clear market stratification, with significant gains in sectors like telecommunications and electronics, while coal and steel sectors show minimal increases [3] - Jiangju Capital emphasizes the importance of understanding one's capability circle and leveraging comparative advantages in familiar areas to maximize expected returns [3] - The firm suggests using industry ETFs or other tools to adjust investment allocations in response to macroeconomic changes, rather than strictly adhering to bottom-up stock selection [3]