文|有风 编辑|有风 去年9月的A股市场有点意思，之前跌到5.9星的极端估值，没两个月就反弹到4点几星。 身边好多朋友都在问，这5星级机会是不是就这样溜走了？这问题我也琢磨了好久。 今天就掏心窝子跟大家聊聊，这5星级投资机会到底是个啥，普通人咋抓住这种几年一遇的赚钱机会。 周期钟摆如何摆到极端？ 先得说清楚，这5星级机会可不是随便叫的。 得满足三个硬指标：估值历史分位低于10%，全市场都慌得不行，连优质公司股价都跟着跌。 去年那波5.9星的时候，沪深两市成交量萎缩到千亿级，新发基金都卖不动，银行理财经理天天给我打 电话推销存款。 企业赚钱能力和股价走势往往是反着来的。 去年上半年好多公司财报都不好看，盈利同比降了不少，股价反而在9月开始反弹。 这就像种地，冬天看起来一片萧瑟，其实种子已经在土里等着发芽。 货币政策在这中间也起大作用，2022年美联储加息那阵子，成长股跌得爹妈都不认识，去年一降息，资 金又呼呼往股市跑。 市场情绪这东西最没道理可讲。 去年5.9星的时候，我一哥们儿天天看盘，说账户亏得睡不着觉。 结果三根大阳线拉起来，他立马又加仓追进去了。 当时有个在美国的同学跟我说，他爸妈把养老金全投进去了，现 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2026 mid - term elections pose a difficult defensive battle for Trump and the Republican Party. Due to historical trends, Trump's personal poll performance, and potential structural factors, the Republican Party has a relatively high probability of losing control of the House of Representatives, and the Senate election will be more intense with high risks [2]. - If the Republicans win, the double - loose policy will promote economic expansion, which is beneficial to the stock market and commodities, but there are inflation risks. If they lose, Trump's policy implementation will be hindered, market risk - aversion sentiment will rise, and technology and financial stocks will be under pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. The "Curse" Phenomenon and Historical Review of US Mid - term Elections - **Qualitative Definition of the "Mid - term Election Curse"**: In mid - term elections, the president's party usually loses seats, which is a normal and regular phenomenon, reflecting the political psychology of US voters, the power - balance system design, and the internal laws of the political cycle [6]. - **Historical Data Support**: - On average, the president's party loses 25.7 seats in the House and 3.3 seats in the Senate in mid - term elections. The probability of the president's party retaining the majority in both houses is only about 30% [7]. - Even if a president wins a "sweep" in the previous election, the probability of maintaining the party's majority in both houses in the subsequent mid - term election is only 36.36% [9]. II. Analysis of the Causes of the "Mid - term Election Curse" - **Traditional Theories and Mainstream Explanations**: - **Undulation Theory**: Voters mobilized in the presidential election are less likely to vote in mid - term elections, leading to a natural decline in the ruling party's vote - share [11]. - **Presidential Punishment Effect**: Mid - term elections are a "referendum" on the president's performance. Voters punish the president's party for economic problems, social contradictions, and unpopular policies [12]. - **Mid - term Election Referendum Theory**: Voters base their votes on the current economic situation and satisfaction with the president's leadership [13]. - **Power - Balance Theory**: Voters support the opposition party to strengthen congressional checks on the president and prevent excessive expansion of executive power [14]. - **Balancing Theory**: Voters create a "divided government" to achieve power balance and prevent one - party dominance [15]. - **Pendulum Effect**: Political support swings between the ruling and opposition parties, reflecting voters' resistance to one - party rule [16]. - **Issue Evolution Theory**: Mid - term election issues are more specific and local, and can change suddenly, affecting voter behavior [17]. - **Turnout Differential Theory**: Voter participation rates and structures differ between presidential and mid - term elections, with "core voters" having a greater impact in mid - term elections [18]. - **Backlash against Radical Policies**: Radical policies by the president can lead to a strong voter backlash in mid - term elections [19]. - **Media and Information Flow Theory**: Mid - term election media coverage is more fragmented, and voters rely more on party loyalty or simple anti - ruling - party strategies [20]. - **Reversion to Mean Theory**: The ideological distribution of voters in mid - term elections returns to the average level, causing a decline in the ruling party's support [21]. - **Impact on the 2026 Elections**: The "presidential punishment effect", "backlash against radical policies", "issue evolution theory", and "turnout differential theory" will have a significant impact on the 2026 mid - term elections [24][25]. III. Trump's "Final Battle": In - depth Analysis of the 2026 Mid - term Election Strategy and Market Impact - **Importance of the 2026 Mid - term Elections**: The 2026 mid - term elections are crucial for Trump's political legacy. The results will determine his political influence and policy - implementation space in the remaining term [27]. - **Review of the 2018 Loss**: - **Contrast between Economic Data and Support Rate**: In 2018, the US economic data was good, but Trump's support rate was low because voters' evaluations were affected by personal style, divisive remarks, and the actual impact of policies on daily life [29]. - **Core Reasons for the Loss**: - **Policy Imbalance**: Fiscal, monetary, and trade policies offset each other, causing double - impacts on market confidence and people's livelihoods [32]. - **Shortcomings in Campaign Strategy**: The Republican Party failed to mobilize voters effectively, especially in suburban and female voter groups, and the campaign focus was misaligned with voters' concerns [42]. - **Outburst of Dissatisfaction**: The rise in the cost of living in core areas such as healthcare, education, and housing became the core issue in the election, and negative public opinion led to a decline in Trump's support rate [42]. - **Lessons Learned and 2026 Strategies**: - **Policy Coordination**: Adopt a "loose - money + loose - fiscal + stable - trade" policy system, including nominating a dovish Fed chair, implementing more active fiscal policies, and adjusting trade policies [47][48]. - **Campaign Focus**: Shift the focus from macro - data to tangible benefits for people's livelihoods, and actively set campaign agendas around people's livelihood issues [49]. - **Internal Integration**: Strengthen internal unity within the party and establish a more effective public - opinion feedback mechanism [51]. IV. Market Outlook and Potential Risks - The performance of the US stock market is significantly related to the presidential term cycle. The second year (mid - term election year) is often a testing period for the stock market, with higher volatility and downward pressure [52].

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Private equity firms in China are showing increasing optimism, with stock private equity institutions' average positions rising to the highest level of the year at 78.04% as of September 12, up 2.96 percentage points from the previous week [1] - The proportion of private equity firms with heavy or full positions (over 80%) has significantly increased to 60.02%, a rise of 5.81 percentage points week-on-week, while the proportion of firms with no positions has decreased to 5.08%, down 0.77 percentage points [1] - Different scales of private equity firms are maintaining high positions, with those managing over 10 billion yuan averaging 78.22%, and those between 5 billion to 10 billion yuan averaging 86.49%, the highest among all categories [1] Group 2: Performance and Market Trends - The top 100 subjective private equity firms have achieved an average return of 37.43% year-to-date, while the top quantitative firms have an average return of 26.69% [2] - The "Dai Shui Quan Growth Phase I" product from the leading private equity firm Dai Shui Quan has reported a return exceeding 50% [2] - The market is exhibiting a "slow bull" characteristic, with investor risk appetite remaining high, driven by liquidity, fundamentals, and external factors [2] Group 3: Sector Performance and Strategy - There is a clear market stratification, with significant gains in sectors like telecommunications, electronics, and non-ferrous metals, while coal and steel sectors have seen minimal increases [3] - The firm "Jia Gu Capital" emphasizes the importance of understanding one's capability circle and leveraging comparative advantages in familiar areas to maximize returns [3] - The firm suggests using industry ETFs or other tools to adjust investment allocations in response to macroeconomic changes, rather than strictly focusing on bottom-up stock selection [3]

Group 1 - The overall sentiment among private equity institutions remains optimistic despite market fluctuations, with stock private equity institutions' average positions reaching a year-to-date high of 78.04% as of September 12 [1] - The proportion of private equity institutions with heavy or full positions (over 80%) has significantly increased to 60.02%, up by 5.81 percentage points from the previous week, while the proportion of those with no positions has decreased to 5.08% [1] - Different scales of private equity institutions show high average positions, with large-scale institutions (over 10 billion) averaging 78.22%, and those between 5 billion to 10 billion averaging 86.49%, indicating a general trend of maintaining high positions across various sizes [1] Group 2 - The top 100 subjective private equity firms have achieved an average return of 37.43% year-to-date, while the top quantitative private equity firms have an average return of 26.69% [2] - The market is exhibiting a "slow bull" characteristic, with investor risk appetite remaining high, driven by liquidity, fundamentals, and external factors, leading to a shift from "certainty priority" to "growth priority" [2] - Emerging growth opportunities, such as new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, and AI hardware, are becoming significant market drivers, reflecting a renewed focus on fundamental growth rather than just certainty [2] Group 3 - Large private equity institutions, such as Jiangju Capital, observe a clear market stratification, with significant gains in sectors like telecommunications and electronics, while coal and steel sectors show minimal increases [3] - Jiangju Capital emphasizes the importance of understanding one's capability circle and leveraging comparative advantages in familiar areas to maximize expected returns [3] - The firm suggests using industry ETFs or other tools to adjust investment allocations in response to macroeconomic changes, rather than strictly adhering to bottom-up stock selection [3]