Core Viewpoint - The rebar steel market is experiencing a downturn due to various negative factors, despite some supportive policies in the real estate sector. The overall market sentiment is shifting, leading to a decline in prices and increasing inventory levels [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - Since mid-August, rebar futures prices have weakened significantly, with the main contract dropping from 3274 CNY/ton to 3097 CNY/ton, a decline of nearly 5.4% [1]. - Spot prices have also decreased, with mainstream regions in East China seeing declines of 80 to 110 CNY/ton [1]. - As of August 22, the total inventory of rebar reached 6.0704 million tons, an increase of 198,500 tons week-on-week, marking four consecutive weeks of accumulation [1]. Group 2: Production and Supply - The weekly production of rebar is reported at 2.1465 million tons, a decrease of 65,300 tons over two weeks, primarily due to long-process steel mills shifting production to steel billets [2]. - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills is at 75.69%, indicating limited room for supply contraction [2]. - There are expectations of production restrictions around Beijing, which could boost market sentiment if implemented [2]. Group 3: Demand Indicators - Rebar demand remains weak, with weekly demand recorded at 1.9480 million tons, continuing to be at a low level compared to recent years [2]. - Key indicators such as cement dispatch and concrete delivery have also shown declines of 16.5% and 7.8% year-on-year, respectively, further confirming the sluggish demand in the construction market [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Despite the re-emergence of favorable policies in the real estate market, the overall industry remains in a weak recovery phase [3]. - The recent increase in rebar futures arbitrage activity may lead to a profit-taking window, potentially increasing pressure on demand [3]. - The current supply-demand imbalance suggests that steel prices will remain under pressure, although rising costs may limit further declines, with expectations of a fluctuating bottoming-out trend in prices [3].