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供需边际好转,利润有望修复
Minsheng Securities· 2026-01-18 07:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, recommending several key companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The supply-demand situation is improving, leading to a potential recovery in profits for the steel industry. The report highlights that production of major steel products has increased, while total inventory has decreased, indicating a positive shift in market dynamics [7][30]. - The report emphasizes that the profitability of steel manufacturers is expected to recover in the short term due to improved supply-demand conditions and stable cost support from raw materials [7][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Steel Market - As of January 16, steel prices have risen, with HRB400 rebar priced at 3,320 CNY/ton, up 40 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other products like high-line and hot-rolled steel also saw price increases [13][14]. 2. Production and Inventory - The total production of five major steel products reached 8.19 million tons, an increase of 0.62 million tons week-on-week. Total inventory decreased by 11,700 tons to 865,320 tons, indicating a positive trend in inventory management [7][30]. 3. Profitability - The report notes a decline in steel profits, with average margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel decreasing by 13 CNY/ton, 4 CNY/ton, and 18 CNY/ton respectively. However, the overall outlook for profit recovery remains optimistic [7][30]. 4. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - General Steel Leaders: Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel - Special Steel Sector: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Fangda Special Steel - Pipe Manufacturers: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Changbao Co. - Raw Material Sector: Dazhong Mining (iron ore + lithium ore), Fangda Carbon [7][30].