1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The weak market of coke and coking coal futures continues, and there may be new lows in the next two weeks. However, positive factors in fundamentals and news are accumulating. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a turnaround in the market with changes in tariff policies and recovery of confidence in the steel market in the next two weeks [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Futures Market Performance - On May 21, the main contracts of coke and coking coal futures, J2509 and JM2509, oscillated and rebounded, but the gains narrowed. The JM2509 contract hit a new low of 835 yuan/ton for the September contract since September 2016 during the night trading session [7]. - The closing prices of J2509 and JM2509 were 1417.5 yuan/ton and 842 yuan/ton respectively, with a decline of 0.14% and 0.36% respectively. The trading volumes were 19,389 lots and 392,164 lots respectively, and the open interests decreased by 1,902 lots and 5,210 lots respectively. The capital outflows were 0.43 billion yuan and 0.33 billion yuan respectively [5]. 3.1.2 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On May 21, the spot prices of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port were 1390 yuan/ton, and that in Tangshan was 1320 yuan/ton, with no change. The spot prices of low - sulfur main coking coal in different regions remained stable [10]. - The daily KDJ indicators of the J2509 and JM2509 contracts showed divergent trends, with the J and K values turning up and the D value continuing to decline. The green bars of the daily MACD of the two contracts began to narrow [10]. 3.1.3 Future Outlook - **Coke**: The output of independent coking plants has been hovering near the highest level since early August last year in the past four weeks, while the output of steel mills has declined slightly since late April. The port inventory has decreased significantly, but the de - stocking speed of steel mills and coking plants is slow, putting downward pressure on prices. The profit per ton of coke has been positive for two consecutive weeks, which has led to the delay of the second price increase after the first increase in mid - April and created conditions for steel mills to propose price cuts [11]. - **Coking Coal**: The import volume remains high, and the loose supply pattern is difficult to reverse. The raw coal inventory of coal washing plants has increased again, and the clean coal inventory has risen to a relatively high level. The inventory of independent coking plants has decreased significantly in the past four weeks, and the port inventory has returned to the normal level before early August last year, but the inventory of steel mills has increased steadily. If coking plants also adopt a de - stocking strategy, the price of coking coal is likely to fall [11]. - **News**: The preliminary agreement on mutual substantial tariff cuts has been reached in the Sino - US trade negotiations, and the National Development and Reform Commission will continue to promote urban renewal work and issue the central budget investment plan for urban renewal in 2025 before the end of June [11]. 3.2 Industry News - On May 20, the Ministry of Finance announced that from January to April 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 8.0616 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. The national tax revenue was 6.5556 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%, and the non - tax revenue was 1.506 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. The national government - funded budget expenditure was 2.6136 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 17.7% [12]. - On May 20, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that it would comprehensively rectify "involution - style competition", optimize industrial layout, and eliminate inefficient and backward production capacity in industries such as refining and steel [12]. - In April, the total social electricity consumption was 772.1 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%. From January to April, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 3156.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [12][13]. - China National Coal Energy Company stated in an institutional survey that the proportion of long - term contracts signed for its own resources is not less than 75%, and the annual implementation rate is not less than 90%. In the first quarter, the coal production cost increased due to various factors [13]. - From January to April, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Shaanxi Province increased by 9.5% year - on - year. The added value of the coal mining and washing industry increased by 11.8% year - on - year, and the production of major energy products remained stable [13]. - On May 20, the concentrated maintenance of the Houyue Railway and the Houma North Hub, an important channel for "transporting coal out of Shanxi", began [13]. - At the 2024 collective performance meeting of CSSC Holdings, China State Shipbuilding Corporation stated that its revenue mainly comes from ship and offshore engineering construction, and the company's orders are scheduled until 2029 [13]. - In March 2025, Indonesia's coke export volume increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, reaching a new high this year, with an export volume of 596,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 103.08% and a month - on - month increase of 55.81% [13]. - The US government's trade committee decided to impose high tariffs on solar products imported from four Southeast Asian countries, and the tariffs will be levied in June [13]. - In April 2025, Japan imported 12.026 million tons of coal, a year - on - year decrease of 8.9%, and the coal import value was 247.14 billion yen (1.713 billion US dollars), a year - on - year decrease of 38.6% [14]. - Thailand's Investment Commission launched four new measures to enhance the competitiveness of SMEs and reduce the risks brought by US trade policies. Investment incentives for the steel manufacturing industry will be cancelled [14]. - In South Korea in 2024, nuclear power generation accounted for 31.7% of the total power generation, ranking first, and coal and natural gas power generation each accounted for 28.1%, ranking second. The proportion of renewable energy power generation exceeded 10% for the first time [14]. - In the week of May 16, the US API crude oil inventory increased by 2.499 million barrels, the Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 443,000 barrels, the gasoline inventory decreased by 3.238 million barrels, and the distillate oil inventory decreased by 1.401 million barrels [14]. 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the summary price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the daily average pig iron production, the inventory of coke and coking coal in ports, coking plants, and steel mills, the profit per ton of independent coking plants, the production and operating rate of coal washing plants, the inventory of raw coal and clean coal in coal washing plants, and the basis of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - class coke and Linfen's low - sulfur main coking coal against the September contracts [16][18][20][28][29][32].