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关税政策变化

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建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20250529

Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-29 01:57

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: May 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Group 2: Market Performance Futures Market - On May 28, the main contracts 2509 of coke and coking coal futures oscillated downward, hitting new lows for September contracts since January 2017 and September 2016 respectively in the afternoon. The J2509 contract closed at 1338.5 yuan/ton, down 1.91%, with a trading volume of 21,100 lots and an open interest of 57,482 lots, an increase of 1,175 lots. The JM2509 contract closed at 779 yuan/ton, down 2.20%, with a trading volume of 537,375 lots and an open interest of 526,866 lots, an increase of 5,852 lots. The capital inflow/outflow was 0.03 billion yuan for J2509 and -0.73 billion yuan for JM2509 [5]. Spot Market - On May 28, the daily KDJ indicators of the coke and coking coal 2509 contracts declined, with the J and K values turning down and the D value continuing to slide. The daily MACD green bar of the coke 2509 contract continued to expand, while that of the coking coal 2509 contract turned to expand. The ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1390 yuan/ton, with no change. The price in Tangshan was 1320 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The aggregated price of low - sulfur main coking coal in different regions remained stable [8]. Group 3: Market Outlook Coke - In the past 5 weeks, the coke production of independent coking plants has hovered near the highest level since early August last year, while the coke production of steel mills has slightly declined since late April. The coke inventory at ports has significantly decreased in the past 5 weeks, but the inventory reduction speed of steel mills and coking plants is slow, adding new downward pressure on coke prices. The profit per ton of coke turned from profit to loss after 2 consecutive weeks of profit, mainly because the second - round price increase of coke spot prices did not occur after the first - round increase in mid - April, creating conditions for steel mills to propose a price cut, which was implemented on May 16 [10]. Coking Coal - From January to April, the year - on - year growth of imports turned negative, but the absolute value of imports remained at a high level, and the overall loose pattern was difficult to reverse. The raw coal inventory of coal washing plants has significantly increased, and the clean coal inventory has risen again to a relatively high level. In the past 5 weeks, the inventory of independent coking plants has significantly decreased, and the port inventory has also returned to the normal level before early August last year, but the inventory of steel mills has increased steadily. If coking plants also adopt inventory reduction strategies while steel mills still have relatively sufficient inventory, coking coal prices are likely to fall rather than rise [10]. Overall - Although the weak market of coke and coking coal futures continues, and there may be new lows in the next two weeks, positive factors in the fundamentals and news are accumulating. Attention should be paid to whether a turning point of bottom - fishing rebound can occur in about the next two weeks under the changes in tariff policies and the recovery of confidence in the steel market [10] Group 4: Industry News - In April 2025, the national issuance of new bonds was 253.4 billion yuan, including 23.3 billion yuan of general bonds and 230.1 billion yuan of special bonds. From January to April, the cumulative issuance of new local government bonds was 1492.7 billion yuan, including 302.3 billion yuan of general bonds and 1190.4 billion yuan of special bonds [12]. - The construction of the Dapingtan Coal Mine project is accelerating. The mine is located in Kuche City, Aksu Region, Xinjiang, with a mining area of 16.56 square kilometers, a geological reserve of 247 million tons, and a designed production capacity of 2.4 million tons/year [12]. - Nanjing Iron and Steel Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary, Anhui Jin'an Mining Co., Ltd., obtained the exploration right of Fanqiao Iron Mine in Huoqiu County, Anhui Province. The mine has an ore resource of 116.4967 million tons and a normal - year production capacity of 3.5 million tons/year of iron ore and 1.04 million tons/year of iron concentrate [12][13]. - Jiantou Energy expects the thermal coal market to be generally loose in 2025, with coal prices likely to decline further. The company's long - term agreement signing coverage rate in 2025 exceeds 80% [13]. - Lingyuan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd.'s 2290m³ blast furnace was successfully put into operation on May 27, 2025, after capacity replacement [13]. - Handan City encourages steel and logistics enterprises to integrate resources, explore centralized procurement of bulk commodities, and develop multimodal transport [13][14]. - The production - continuation land use project of Heidaigou and Halwusu Open - pit Mines in Zhungeer Banner was approved, which can meet the land demand of the two mines for the next five years [14]. - From January to April 2025, the automobile industry's production increased by 11% year - on - year, but the profit decreased by 5.1%. The industry needs to control costs [14]. - In April 2025, China exported 10.462 million tons of steel, basically the same as the previous month. From January to April, the cumulative export was 37.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [14]. - In April 2025, the US coal production was 39.6403 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.37% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.53% [15]. - In March 2025, India's coal imports were 20.2908 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.79% and a month - on - month increase of 13.65% [15]. - Glencore's Ulan Coal Mine in Australia was approved for expansion, allowing it to mine an additional 18.8 million tons of coal and extend its mine life by two years [15]. - The nationwide blackout in Portugal on April 28 may have caused economic losses of over 2 billion euros to Portuguese enterprises [15] Group 5: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the aggregated price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national daily average pig iron output, the inventory of coke and coking coal in ports, steel mills, and coking plants, the profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants, the production and operating rate of coal washing plants, the inventory of raw coal and clean coal in coal washing plants, and the basis between spot and futures contracts [16][17][19][29][33][36]