Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short fiber (PF): Affected by geopolitical factors, the cost is under upward pressure. In the short term, it is expected to be strong and volatile. The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand is expected to improve with the resumption of work. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical issues and the sustainability of export orders [7]. - Bottle chips (PR): The cost side is also affected by geopolitical factors, with significant upward risks. In the short term, it is expected to follow the cost and be strong. In the medium term, the joint production cut of bottle chip factories in the first half of the year may end, and attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical issues and the resumption of factory operations [9]. Summary by Directory Short Fiber (PF) Valuation and Profit - The current spot premium is 900 - 1000 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee is around 950 yuan/ton, which is normal [8]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: The average start - up load of direct - spun polyester staple fiber has reached 74.4%, and the cotton - type load is 84.4%, with further upward expected [7]. - Demand: Downstream is still in the process of resuming work. The terminal has expectations for export demand. The finished product inventory in the yarn and grey fabric links is neutral, and the raw material inventory is mostly 15 - 20 days. The short - fiber inventory is at a low level, with the 1.4D equity inventory at 12.3 days and the physical inventory at 20.4 days, which is moderately high [7]. Strategy - Unilateral: Hold a small number of long positions in the short term, and then pay attention to the realization of geopolitical issues and strong demand expectations. Go short on a quarterly basis [8]. - Inter - period: Mainly wait and see. After a significant unilateral increase, conduct reverse spreads on the far - month contracts [8]. - Inter - variety: None at present [8]. Bottle Chips (PR) Valuation and Profit - The spot processing fee is 600 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee is 600 yuan/ton, which is relatively high [9]. Fundamental Operation - Supply: The factory's average start - up is 76.8%. The 500,000 - ton maintenance of Hainan Yisheng will return in the middle of the month. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of 750,000 tons of Sanfangxiang, 1.2 million tons of Huarun, and 250,000 tons of Tenglong around March. The maintenance of Sinopec and Baihong's devices in March may be delayed. The supply is expected to recover rapidly in March [9]. - Demand: During the Spring Festival, downstream factories mostly had holidays and shut - downs. The average start - up of beverage and edible oil factories was around 50%, and most sheet material factories shut down. After the festival, it is expected to gradually resume production. The shutdown situation downstream is less than last year. The overall average inventory of domestic polyester bottle chip factories before the festival was about 11 days, and the inventory is still controllable after the Spring Festival inventory accumulation [9]. Strategy - Unilateral: Hold a small number of long positions in the short term, and then pay attention to the realization of geopolitical issues and strong demand expectations. Go short on a quarterly basis [9]. - Inter - period: Conduct basis reverse spreads and far - month reverse spreads [9]. - Inter - variety: Go short on the processing fee and go long on PF and short on PR [9]. Market Conditions and Data Price and Spread - Bottle chips: The spot price rose first and then fell, with good trading sentiment, reaching 6310 - 6580 yuan/ton on Friday; the average FOB price was 840 - 865 US dollars/ton. The basis has been repaired, and the inter - month structure has gradually flattened to a slightly backwardation structure [18][16]. - Short fiber: The basis has been generally repaired, and the inter - month structure is in contango, with the near - month contracts gradually flattening [86]. Production and Start - up - Bottle chips: The production capacity base was adjusted to 21.47 million tons/year in January 2026. This week, the bottle chip load reached 76.8% (calculated based on 21.47 million tons) [24]. - Short fiber: The short - fiber load is 74.4%, and the cotton - type load is 84.4%. Many factories are expected to resume production quickly after the Spring Festival [97]. Inventory - Bottle chips: After the Spring Festival inventory accumulation, the inventory of domestic polyester bottle chip factories has reached more than 16 days (CCF caliber) [40]. - Short fiber: The polyester inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival is generally acceptable [98]. Export - Bottle chips: In December 2025, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices was 702,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. From January to December 2025, the total export volume was 7.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.1% [73]. - Polyester: In December 2025, the polyester export increased year - on - year, with a differentiated month - on - month change [103]. Downstream Demand Short Fiber - The downstream polyester yarn is in the process of rapid resumption of production, and the weaving start - up rate is also gradually increasing. The raw material inventory of weaving enterprises is generally neutral, and the yarn raw material inventory is not high [112][114]. Bottle Chips - The beverage industry's start - up rate has declined slightly, and the edible oil industry has entered the year - end stocking season. The demand for sheet materials is neutrally supported [49][58][62].

Core Viewpoint - The sportswear sector is experiencing a significant rise in stock prices following the announcement of tariff reductions by the U.S. on Chinese goods, alongside the commencement of the Milan Winter Olympics, which is expected to boost interest in winter sports and related consumer spending [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Tmall (06110) shares increased by 5.84%, reaching HKD 3.08 [1] - Anta Sports (02020) shares rose by 4.32%, reaching HKD 88.2 [1] - Li Ning (02331) shares climbed by 3.75%, reaching HKD 23.24 [1] - Xtep (01368) shares grew by 1.31%, reaching HKD 5.41 [1] Group 2: Tariff Changes - On February 20, the U.S. officially canceled the 10% reciprocal tariffs and 10% fentanyl tariffs on China, while imposing a 10% tariff on goods from all countries [1] - The net reduction in tariffs on most Chinese goods is 10 percentage points compared to the previous 20% tariffs, which is expected to positively impact export-oriented textile manufacturing companies [1] Group 3: Event Impact - The Milan Winter Olympics has officially started, with the Chinese delegation participating in the largest number of events and athletes in overseas Winter Olympics history [1] - The presence of Chinese sports brands at the Milan event is anticipated to enhance global visibility and engagement in sports [1] - The increasing excitement around the Winter Olympics is expected to boost interest in ice and snow sports, as well as consumer enthusiasm for sports events, suggesting a focus on the sports sector as a catalyst for growth [1]

Cotton Market Insights - The cotton futures contract closed at 15,285 CNY/ton, an increase of 545 CNY/ton or 3.70% from the previous day [2][14] - The spot price for 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 15,789 CNY/ton, down by 31 CNY/ton, while the national average was 16,070 CNY/ton, down by 18 CNY/ton [2][14] - The USDA report forecasts a global cotton production of 25.26 million tons for the 2026/27 season, a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year, with consumption expected to rise by 1.2% to 26.15 million tons [3][15] Market Analysis - The cotton market is expected to tighten due to reduced global supply and increased demand, with the USDA's outlook being optimistic [3][15] - Domestic textile markets are anticipated to gradually recover as operations resume, contributing to higher cotton consumption [3][15] - The planting area for Xinjiang cotton is projected to decrease, which may lead to a long-term upward shift in cotton prices [4][15] Strategy - The market outlook is neutral, with expectations of a strong performance in the cotton market during the traditional peak season, although short-term price increases may face pressure from price differentials [5][16] Sugar Market Insights - The sugar futures contract closed at 5,229 CNY/ton, an increase of 18 CNY/ton or 0.35% from the previous day [6][17] - Thailand's sugar production for the 2025/26 season is projected to decrease by 4.83% year-on-year, with a total sugar production of 683.56 million tons [6][17] Market Analysis - The sugar market is currently experiencing a surplus, which is expected to continue to suppress prices in the short to medium term [7][18] - Domestic sugar production is expected to increase, but sales data indicates lower-than-expected pre-holiday stockpiling [7][18] Strategy - The outlook for sugar is neutral, with attention needed on domestic production pressures and potential changes in import policies [8][19] Pulp Market Insights - The pulp futures contract closed at 5,340 CNY/ton, an increase of 80 CNY/ton or 1.52% from the previous day [9][20] - The market for imported wood pulp is showing signs of strength, although actual trading activity remains limited [10][21] Market Analysis - Global wood pulp supply pressures are expected to ease due to reduced new capacity and production cuts from major suppliers [11][22] - Despite an increase in paper production capacity, demand remains weak, leading to high inventory levels at domestic ports [11][22] Strategy - The market outlook for pulp is neutral, with prices likely to remain stable in the short term due to high inventory levels [12][22]

1. Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: February 25, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market will be in a range - bound oscillation without a trending market in the near future, and the domestic market may face greater phased pressure than the overseas market [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: The overseas soybean futures contracts were strong first and then weak during the holiday, with the main contract close to 1150 cents. The domestic market was mainly oscillating after the holiday. The soybean meal did not perform well due to the oil - meal seesaw effect [6] - **Factors Affecting the Market**: Overseas, the change in tariffs led to the game of subsequent export demand expectations. The large - scale harvest of Brazilian soybeans may make China's commercial purchases still tend to South America. In South America, the rainfall in Argentina's main producing areas alleviated the growth pressure of crops, and the soybean yield is expected to be stable. Domestically, attention should be paid to the auction of imported soybeans and Sino - US trade procurement news [6] 3.2 Industry News - **USDA Outlook**: In 2026, the US soybean planting area is expected to increase by 3.8 million acres to 85 million acres. The soybean output will reach 4.45 billion bushels, with a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. Total demand is expected to increase by 207 million bushels to 4.464 billion bushels. Ending stocks will remain basically flat at 355 million bushels. The cost of production is expected to remain high, squeezing planting profit margins [7] - **Other News**: Trump will visit China from March 31 to April 2, which is the first face - to - face meeting between the two leaders since last October. As of the week of February 18, 75% of Argentina's soybean crops were rated normal to good, and 66% of the planting areas had suitable to optimal moisture conditions [15] 3.3 Data Overview - The data includes the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 05 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of CCB Futures [13][14][17]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Fuling Co., Ltd. (001356.SZ), expects a significant decline in net profit for 2025, projecting a range of 79 million to 99 million yuan, which represents a decrease of 64.11% to 55.02% compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 79 million and 99 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 64.11% to 55.02% year-on-year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 77 million and 97 million yuan, indicating a decrease of 64.54% to 55.33% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Operational Challenges - In the first half of 2025, the company faced a decline in sales volume and revenue due to increased tariffs imposed by the U.S. on various regions globally [1] - To adapt to external environmental changes, the company is accelerating the construction of a new production base in Indonesia to accommodate the production capacity previously directed towards exports to the U.S. [1] - By July 2025, the new production base in Indonesia is expected to achieve partial production, although initial production efficiency is still ramping up, leading to increased fixed costs and depreciation that pressure current profits [1] Group 3: Cost Pressures - The company has recruited a large number of production employees in Indonesia to support the new production base, along with sending skilled maintenance and workshop management personnel from its headquarters in China, resulting in a significant increase in labor costs [1] - The company has incurred substantial foreign exchange losses due to currency fluctuations since 2025, contrasting with foreign exchange gains in the same period of 2024, negatively impacting current net profit [1] Group 4: Summary of Factors Affecting Performance - The decline in revenue and gross profit is attributed to changes in tariff policies affecting the U.S., initial cost pressures from the new Indonesian production base, rising labor costs, and adverse effects from currency fluctuations [1]

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for Shenzhou International and Huali Group, with respective 2026 PE ratios of 12x and 18x [2][30]. Core Views - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing fluctuations in revenue, with notable declines in some manufacturers' performance due to changing international trade environments and tariff policies [1][13]. - The report anticipates a recovery in orders and shipments for apparel manufacturers in 2026, driven by improved demand and healthy inventory levels [23][28]. - Key brands like Nike are expected to show gradual improvement in their operational performance, which may positively impact their suppliers [23][24]. Summary by Sections Recent Revenue Performance - In November 2025, revenue for Feng Tai Enterprises, Ruo Hong, and Yu Yuan Group decreased by 11.8%, increased by 1.5%, and decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, respectively [1][13]. - Cumulatively from January to November 2025, Feng Tai's revenue declined by 4.9%, while Ruo Hong and Yu Yuan reported increases of 3.8% and 0.9% [1][13]. Industry Outlook - The report indicates that the apparel manufacturing sector is expected to see a recovery in orders in 2026, with a focus on companies with integrated and international supply chains [28][29]. - The report highlights that the competitive landscape is improving, with leading manufacturers likely to gain market share [2][27]. Key Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks include Shenzhou International and Huali Group, with a focus on companies that are expected to benefit from improved customer trends and operational efficiencies [2][28]. - Other companies to watch include Weixing Co., Kairun Co., and Jingyuan International, which are also positioned well for future growth [2][28]. Brand Performance - The report emphasizes the importance of brand performance, particularly for Nike in the Greater China region, which is expected to show a turnaround [28]. - Other recommended brands include Anta Sports and Li Ning, with respective 2026 PE ratios of 14x and 16x [28].

Core Insights - The luxury retail sector is showing resilience despite a general decline in overall consumer spending, particularly in the high-end market [2][3] - The holiday shopping season is expected to maintain strong momentum, especially in high-end ready-to-wear and fine jewelry categories [4][5] - The trend of "silent luxury" continues to thrive, but there are signs of a potential comeback for more colorful and embellished items as seen in recent fashion weeks [6][7] Consumer Spending Trends - Overall consumer spending has declined, but high-end retail spending remains robust, with a notable double-digit per capita revenue growth among the top 40% of customers [2][3] - The luxury sector is experiencing a positive sentiment driven by stable stock markets, real estate, and commodities, which supports consumer confidence [10] Inventory Management - Inventory levels are crucial in the luxury industry, with a need for alignment between supply and demand to avoid discounting [11] - There was an oversupply of products in 2023, but the industry has since improved the calibration between supply and demand, leading to a resurgence in full-price sales [12]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the resilience of the home appliance industry, particularly the white goods sector, and highlights the ongoing benefits from international expansion and growth opportunities in emerging markets [1][4][5] - The report maintains a positive outlook on leading companies in the white goods sector, suggesting that they possess strong operational resilience and are well-positioned to navigate market challenges [1][5][17] Investment Recommendations - **Main Line 1**: Focus on high dividend yields and high ROE, capitalizing on the operational resilience of leading white goods companies [3][11] - **Main Line 2**: Leverage the ongoing benefits from international expansion, as leading white goods companies have established global production capacities and can adapt to tariff policies [5][4] - **Main Line 3**: Follow valuation trends and sectors with upward beta, indicating potential growth opportunities [7] - **Main Line 4**: Pay attention to new product categories with low penetration and high growth potential, which could offer significant market opportunities [8] Performance Analysis - The report analyzes the performance of key white goods companies during the pressure testing period of Q2 and Q3 2025, noting that Midea Group and Haier Smart Home demonstrated strong operational resilience despite challenges [13][16] - The report provides detailed financial metrics for major players, indicating that Midea Group and Haier Smart Home maintained positive revenue growth, while Gree Electric experienced declines [14][15][16] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the competitive landscape, noting that leading companies have effectively managed pricing strategies to counter competition from emerging brands like Xiaomi [32][36] - It highlights the importance of understanding the impact of government subsidy policies on industry demand, particularly as the market enters a high base period in Q4 2025 [22][24] Global Expansion and Tariff Resilience - The report outlines the global production strategies of leading companies, emphasizing their ability to mitigate risks associated with tariff changes through diversified production locations [41][46] - It notes that China's dominance in global white goods production allows for effective pricing strategies and resilience against policy uncertainties [46][47] Consumer Demand and Economic Indicators - The report indicates that consumer demand in North America is closely tied to real estate trends, suggesting that a potential interest rate cut could stimulate home appliance consumption in 2026 [52][58] - It highlights the correlation between housing sales and appliance consumption, emphasizing the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators [58][59]

Core Viewpoint - The company has experienced disruptions in its shipment schedule to the U.S. due to significant changes in U.S. tariff policies, but the impact is gradually diminishing as production shifts to its new factory in Malaysia [1] Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies - In Q2, the company's shipments to the U.S. were affected by the changes in U.S. tariff policies [1] - The new factory in Malaysia is in the initial production phase, which has also impacted the company's revenue [1] - The company has successfully transitioned its U.S. business to production and shipping from the Malaysian factory, reducing the influence of U.S. tariffs on its operations [1] Group 2: Market Diversification - The company is making steady progress in expanding its non-U.S. market presence, which is helping to decrease reliance on the U.S. market and major clients [1] - This diversification strategy further mitigates the impact of changes in U.S. tariff policies on the company's overall business [1]

Core Viewpoint - Amazon may benefit from the recent closing of the de minimis loophole, which could provide a competitive advantage over other e-commerce platforms that relied on this exemption [5][6][8] Financial Performance - In the quarter ending June 30, 2025, Amazon reported net sales of $167.7 billion, with $100.1 billion (approximately 60%) coming from the North America segment, which includes U.S. e-commerce [2] - The North America segment contributed $7.5 billion, or around 39%, of the total operating income of $19.2 billion during the same quarter [2] - Amazon's North American segment reported operating margins of 7.5%, an improvement from 5.6% in the prior year's quarter [10] - Analysts expect Amazon to experience 15% earnings growth next year, indicating potential for strong, steady gains for investors [15] Market Dynamics - The elimination of the de minimis loophole has negatively impacted competitors like Shein and Temu, which reported double-digit drops in daily active users and weekly sales following the change [7][8] - U.S.-based platforms with high volumes of overseas direct ship listings, such as eBay and Etsy, are also facing headwinds due to the new customs law [8] - Amazon's large U.S.-based warehouse and fulfillment operations allow it to adapt more effectively to the new customs regulations compared to its competitors [8] Strategic Initiatives - Amazon is integrating generative AI technology into its e-commerce operations, which could serve as a significant catalyst for future growth [9] - The company is pivoting toward next-generation fulfillment centers, which could result in $10 billion in annual cost savings by 2030 [11] Future Outlook - Amazon's next quarterly results are scheduled for release on October 28, with guidance for total operating income between $15.5 billion and $20.5 billion [12] - Concerns remain regarding the growth of Amazon Web Services (AWS) and its ability to compete with rivals like Microsoft and Alphabet [14]