国泰君安期货·能源化工 短纤、瓶片周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 日期：2026年3月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 瓶片（PR） 短纤：短期震荡市，中期偏弱 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 供需平衡表 03 瓶片：震荡偏弱 观点小结 2 02 短纤（PF） 估值与利润 基本面运行情况 CONTENTS 01 观点小结 01 上游观点汇总 策略 2）跨期：观望为主，单边大幅上涨后逢高月差反套 3）跨品种：暂无 风险 地缘冲突进一步激化，关税政策变化 本周短纤观点：地缘影响成本，短期偏强，波动加大 供应 工厂复产重启中，直纺涤短平均开机负荷至74.4%，棉型负荷在84.4%，后续预计进一步上行 需求 下游仍在复工中，终端对出口需求有所期待。静态来看，纱线、坯布环节的成品库存中性，原料库存大多在15-20天。2月20日美国最高法院 否决特朗普政府全球性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The sportswear sector is experiencing a significant rise in stock prices following the announcement of tariff reductions by the U.S. on Chinese goods, alongside the commencement of the Milan Winter Olympics, which is expected to boost interest in winter sports and related consumer spending [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Tmall (06110) shares increased by 5.84%, reaching HKD 3.08 [1] - Anta Sports (02020) shares rose by 4.32%, reaching HKD 88.2 [1] - Li Ning (02331) shares climbed by 3.75%, reaching HKD 23.24 [1] - Xtep (01368) shares grew by 1.31%, reaching HKD 5.41 [1] Group 2: Tariff Changes - On February 20, the U.S. officially canceled the 10% reciprocal tariffs and 10% fentanyl tariffs on China, while imposing a 10% tariff on goods from all countries [1] - The net reduction in tariffs on most Chinese goods is 10 percentage points compared to the previous 20% tariffs, which is expected to positively impact export-oriented textile manufacturing companies [1] Group 3: Event Impact - The Milan Winter Olympics has officially started, with the Chinese delegation participating in the largest number of events and athletes in overseas Winter Olympics history [1] - The presence of Chinese sports brands at the Milan event is anticipated to enhance global visibility and engagement in sports [1] - The increasing excitement around the Winter Olympics is expected to boost interest in ice and snow sports, as well as consumer enthusiasm for sports events, suggesting a focus on the sports sector as a catalyst for growth [1]

市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约15285元/吨，较前一日变动+545元/吨，幅度+3.70%。现货方面， 3128B棉新疆到厂价15789元/吨，较前一日变动-31元/吨，现货基差CF05+504，较前一日变动-597； 3128B棉全国均价16070元/吨，较前一日变动-18元/吨，现货基差CF05+785，较前一日变动-594。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 李馨 棉花观点 近期市场资讯，当地时间2026年2月20日，美国最高法院作出关键裁定，明确特朗普政府此前依据《国 际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）实施的大规模全球关税缺乏合法授权，判定该举措属越权行为，要求相 关关税在切实可行的范围内尽快停止征收。面对裁定结果，特朗普随即宣布将依据《1974年贸易法》第 122条权限，对全球输美商品加征10%临时关税，随后短期内再度加码，将该临时关税税率上调至 15%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价强势上涨。国际方面，USDA展望论坛最新报告显示，2026/27年度全球棉花总产2526万 吨，同比减少3.2%；全球消费量2615万吨，同比增 ...

日期 2026 年 2 月 25 日 行业 豆粕 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Fuling Co., Ltd. (001356.SZ), expects a significant decline in net profit for 2025, projecting a range of 79 million to 99 million yuan, which represents a decrease of 64.11% to 55.02% compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 79 million and 99 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 64.11% to 55.02% year-on-year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 77 million and 97 million yuan, indicating a decrease of 64.54% to 55.33% compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Operational Challenges - In the first half of 2025, the company faced a decline in sales volume and revenue due to increased tariffs imposed by the U.S. on various regions globally [1] - To adapt to external environmental changes, the company is accelerating the construction of a new production base in Indonesia to accommodate the production capacity previously directed towards exports to the U.S. [1] - By July 2025, the new production base in Indonesia is expected to achieve partial production, although initial production efficiency is still ramping up, leading to increased fixed costs and depreciation that pressure current profits [1] Group 3: Cost Pressures - The company has recruited a large number of production employees in Indonesia to support the new production base, along with sending skilled maintenance and workshop management personnel from its headquarters in China, resulting in a significant increase in labor costs [1] - The company has incurred substantial foreign exchange losses due to currency fluctuations since 2025, contrasting with foreign exchange gains in the same period of 2024, negatively impacting current net profit [1] Group 4: Summary of Factors Affecting Performance - The decline in revenue and gross profit is attributed to changes in tariff policies affecting the U.S., initial cost pressures from the new Indonesian production base, rising labor costs, and adverse effects from currency fluctuations [1]

Investment Rating - The report recommends "Buy" for Shenzhou International and Huali Group, with respective 2026 PE ratios of 12x and 18x [2][30]. Core Views - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing fluctuations in revenue, with notable declines in some manufacturers' performance due to changing international trade environments and tariff policies [1][13]. - The report anticipates a recovery in orders and shipments for apparel manufacturers in 2026, driven by improved demand and healthy inventory levels [23][28]. - Key brands like Nike are expected to show gradual improvement in their operational performance, which may positively impact their suppliers [23][24]. Summary by Sections Recent Revenue Performance - In November 2025, revenue for Feng Tai Enterprises, Ruo Hong, and Yu Yuan Group decreased by 11.8%, increased by 1.5%, and decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, respectively [1][13]. - Cumulatively from January to November 2025, Feng Tai's revenue declined by 4.9%, while Ruo Hong and Yu Yuan reported increases of 3.8% and 0.9% [1][13]. Industry Outlook - The report indicates that the apparel manufacturing sector is expected to see a recovery in orders in 2026, with a focus on companies with integrated and international supply chains [28][29]. - The report highlights that the competitive landscape is improving, with leading manufacturers likely to gain market share [2][27]. Key Investment Opportunities - Recommended stocks include Shenzhou International and Huali Group, with a focus on companies that are expected to benefit from improved customer trends and operational efficiencies [2][28]. - Other companies to watch include Weixing Co., Kairun Co., and Jingyuan International, which are also positioned well for future growth [2][28]. Brand Performance - The report emphasizes the importance of brand performance, particularly for Nike in the Greater China region, which is expected to show a turnaround [28]. - Other recommended brands include Anta Sports and Li Ning, with respective 2026 PE ratios of 14x and 16x [28].

Core Insights - The luxury retail sector is showing resilience despite a general decline in overall consumer spending, particularly in the high-end market [2][3] - The holiday shopping season is expected to maintain strong momentum, especially in high-end ready-to-wear and fine jewelry categories [4][5] - The trend of "silent luxury" continues to thrive, but there are signs of a potential comeback for more colorful and embellished items as seen in recent fashion weeks [6][7] Consumer Spending Trends - Overall consumer spending has declined, but high-end retail spending remains robust, with a notable double-digit per capita revenue growth among the top 40% of customers [2][3] - The luxury sector is experiencing a positive sentiment driven by stable stock markets, real estate, and commodities, which supports consumer confidence [10] Inventory Management - Inventory levels are crucial in the luxury industry, with a need for alignment between supply and demand to avoid discounting [11] - There was an oversupply of products in 2023, but the industry has since improved the calibration between supply and demand, leading to a resurgence in full-price sales [12]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the resilience of the home appliance industry, particularly the white goods sector, and highlights the ongoing benefits from international expansion and growth opportunities in emerging markets [1][4][5] - The report maintains a positive outlook on leading companies in the white goods sector, suggesting that they possess strong operational resilience and are well-positioned to navigate market challenges [1][5][17] Investment Recommendations - **Main Line 1**: Focus on high dividend yields and high ROE, capitalizing on the operational resilience of leading white goods companies [3][11] - **Main Line 2**: Leverage the ongoing benefits from international expansion, as leading white goods companies have established global production capacities and can adapt to tariff policies [5][4] - **Main Line 3**: Follow valuation trends and sectors with upward beta, indicating potential growth opportunities [7] - **Main Line 4**: Pay attention to new product categories with low penetration and high growth potential, which could offer significant market opportunities [8] Performance Analysis - The report analyzes the performance of key white goods companies during the pressure testing period of Q2 and Q3 2025, noting that Midea Group and Haier Smart Home demonstrated strong operational resilience despite challenges [13][16] - The report provides detailed financial metrics for major players, indicating that Midea Group and Haier Smart Home maintained positive revenue growth, while Gree Electric experienced declines [14][15][16] Market Dynamics - The report discusses the competitive landscape, noting that leading companies have effectively managed pricing strategies to counter competition from emerging brands like Xiaomi [32][36] - It highlights the importance of understanding the impact of government subsidy policies on industry demand, particularly as the market enters a high base period in Q4 2025 [22][24] Global Expansion and Tariff Resilience - The report outlines the global production strategies of leading companies, emphasizing their ability to mitigate risks associated with tariff changes through diversified production locations [41][46] - It notes that China's dominance in global white goods production allows for effective pricing strategies and resilience against policy uncertainties [46][47] Consumer Demand and Economic Indicators - The report indicates that consumer demand in North America is closely tied to real estate trends, suggesting that a potential interest rate cut could stimulate home appliance consumption in 2026 [52][58] - It highlights the correlation between housing sales and appliance consumption, emphasizing the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators [58][59]

Core Viewpoint - The company has experienced disruptions in its shipment schedule to the U.S. due to significant changes in U.S. tariff policies, but the impact is gradually diminishing as production shifts to its new factory in Malaysia [1] Group 1: Impact of U.S. Tariff Policies - In Q2, the company's shipments to the U.S. were affected by the changes in U.S. tariff policies [1] - The new factory in Malaysia is in the initial production phase, which has also impacted the company's revenue [1] - The company has successfully transitioned its U.S. business to production and shipping from the Malaysian factory, reducing the influence of U.S. tariffs on its operations [1] Group 2: Market Diversification - The company is making steady progress in expanding its non-U.S. market presence, which is helping to decrease reliance on the U.S. market and major clients [1] - This diversification strategy further mitigates the impact of changes in U.S. tariff policies on the company's overall business [1]

Core Viewpoint - Amazon may benefit from the recent closing of the de minimis loophole, which could provide a competitive advantage over other e-commerce platforms that relied on this exemption [5][6][8] Financial Performance - In the quarter ending June 30, 2025, Amazon reported net sales of $167.7 billion, with $100.1 billion (approximately 60%) coming from the North America segment, which includes U.S. e-commerce [2] - The North America segment contributed $7.5 billion, or around 39%, of the total operating income of $19.2 billion during the same quarter [2] - Amazon's North American segment reported operating margins of 7.5%, an improvement from 5.6% in the prior year's quarter [10] - Analysts expect Amazon to experience 15% earnings growth next year, indicating potential for strong, steady gains for investors [15] Market Dynamics - The elimination of the de minimis loophole has negatively impacted competitors like Shein and Temu, which reported double-digit drops in daily active users and weekly sales following the change [7][8] - U.S.-based platforms with high volumes of overseas direct ship listings, such as eBay and Etsy, are also facing headwinds due to the new customs law [8] - Amazon's large U.S.-based warehouse and fulfillment operations allow it to adapt more effectively to the new customs regulations compared to its competitors [8] Strategic Initiatives - Amazon is integrating generative AI technology into its e-commerce operations, which could serve as a significant catalyst for future growth [9] - The company is pivoting toward next-generation fulfillment centers, which could result in $10 billion in annual cost savings by 2030 [11] Future Outlook - Amazon's next quarterly results are scheduled for release on October 28, with guidance for total operating income between $15.5 billion and $20.5 billion [12] - Concerns remain regarding the growth of Amazon Web Services (AWS) and its ability to compete with rivals like Microsoft and Alphabet [14]