Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term, with potential for demand repair but continued inventory accumulation. The spread between hot - rolled and rebar futures may narrow. Coal prices face pressure if coal mine production cuts do not materialize [3][4]. - The double - coking market is expected to have low activity, with prices in a wide - range oscillation due to balanced supply - demand and uncertainty in future coal production regulation [9]. - The iron ore market will mainly oscillate, with supply from major mines remaining stable and demand showing a pattern of weakening domestic demand and high - growth overseas demand [12]. - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese markets are expected to have bottom - oscillating prices, with supply at a high level and demand facing some uncertainties [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: Most steel mills in Tangshan conducted blast furnace maintenance from August 31 to September 3, with a production restriction of 30% - 40%. Most resumed production on September 4. US ADP employment in August was 54,000, lower than the expected 65,000. Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in some regions changed slightly [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The black - metal sector maintained an oscillating trend at night. This week, steel production decreased significantly due to the parade, and demand in North China was also affected, leading to faster inventory accumulation. Iron - water production is expected to recover rapidly next week, but demand is still in the off - season. The spread between hot - rolled and rebar futures may narrow [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain a bottom - oscillating trend; Arbitrage: Hold short positions on the hot - rolled - rebar spread and enter a 1 - 5 positive spread; Option: Wait and see [6]. Double - Coking - **Related Information**: This week, the utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased, and the daily output of raw coal and clean coal decreased. The inventory of raw coal increased, while that of clean coal decreased. Steel mill indicators such as blast furnace operation rate and iron - water output also changed. Spot prices of coke and coking coal were provided [8][9]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the event, coal mines and steel mills are resuming production. Weak steel prices restrict raw - material prices. Coking coal prices are declining slightly, and coke prices are stable but with a downward - adjustment expectation. The supply - demand of coking coal is balanced, and prices are expected to oscillate widely [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillate; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see; Spot - futures: Wait and see [10]. Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The US - Japan trade agreement was implemented, and US ADP employment data was released. The balance of personal mortgage loans of six major state - owned banks decreased. Spot prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port increased, and the basis of the 01 iron - ore main contract was provided [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Iron - ore prices oscillated at a high level this week. Supply from major mines was stable, and non - mainstream supply increased. Domestic demand for steel in the manufacturing industry weakened, while overseas demand remained high. The market expectation was volatile [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillate, with spot hedging at a phased high; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see [13]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Related Information**: Spot prices of manganese ore and the purchase price of ferrosilicon by a steel mill were provided [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: The spot price of ferrosilicon was slightly weak, with supply at a high level and demand facing uncertainties. The spot price of silicomanganese was also slightly weak, with supply and demand in a state of balance and cost relatively stable [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Bottom - oscillate; Arbitrage: Gradually take profit on spot - futures positive spreads; Option: Sell straddle option combinations at high prices [16].