Report Title - Hot Rolled Coil Weekly Report 2025/08/16 [1] Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has significantly cooled, and the prices of finished products have slightly corrected. The real estate industry continues to be in a downturn, and the demand outlook remains pessimistic. The demand for hot-rolled coils shows signs of recovery, with production basically unchanged and the inventory accumulation rate slowing down. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may be difficult to maintain the current level, and the futures price may gradually return to being dominated by supply and demand. It is recommended to continuously monitor the progress of terminal demand repair and the support of the cost side for the prices of finished products [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Weekly Points Summary - **Cost Side**: The profit of hot-rolled coil blast furnaces is 154 yuan/ton, slightly down from last week. The spot price is about 11 yuan/ton higher than the futures price, with a moderately high valuation [7] - **Supply Side**: This week, the output of hot-rolled coils was 3.16 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of about 4.0% compared to the same week last year, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of about 0.6%. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4066 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.34 million tons, and the pig iron output has remained above 2.4 million tons [8] - **Demand Side**: This week, the consumption of hot-rolled coils was 3.15 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 85,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 5.4% compared to the same week last year, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of about 1.5%. The demand has increased significantly, with the demand for medium and heavy plates and hot-rolled coils performing well, while the demand for cold-rolled coils remains weak [9] - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of hot-rolled coils was 3.5747 million tons, with a slight inventory accumulation but a significantly slower growth rate [10] 2. Trading Strategy Suggestion - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [13] 3. Other Sections - The report also includes various charts related to the hot-rolled coil market, such as spot and futures prices, regional price differences, basis, profit, inventory, and cost, as well as data on related products like cold-rolled coils, coated plates, and raw materials such as iron ore, coke, and scrap steel [17][56][79]