Report Title - Hot Rolled Coil Weekly Report 2025/11/22 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The steel price is under short - term pressure, and the market is waiting for policy signals. In the short term, due to the weakening of interest - rate cut expectations, the commodity market sentiment is generally cold, and prices may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom. However, as the Fed's easing expectations are gradually realized and positive signals are released from the China - US meeting, market sentiment and the capital environment are expected to improve. If the manufacturing repair trend continues, the steel consumption side may gradually stabilize and recover. In the medium term, as subsequent growth - stabilizing policies are gradually implemented and the macro - environment improves marginally, steel demand is expected to reach an inflection point and achieve a moderate recovery [1][9][10] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost Side**: The hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit is - 57 yuan/ton, with a slight decline in gross profit. The futures price is about 10 yuan/ton higher than the spot price, and the valuation is neutral [7] - **Supply Side**: This week, the hot - rolled coil production was 3.16 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons, about a 2.4% year - on - week increase, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.9%. The daily average pig iron output this week was 2.3628 million tons, with a slight decline. The current hot - rolled coil production is relatively high, and the subsequent production reduction rhythm needs to be monitored [7] - **Demand Side**: This week, the hot - rolled coil consumption was 3.24 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 108,000 tons, about a 2.2% year - on - week increase, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.4%. Affected by the weak demand in infrastructure and manufacturing, the current demand for sheet metal is weak. Although the demand for hot - rolled coils increased slightly this week, the demand level is difficult to absorb the production [8] - **Inventory**: This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory was 402,110 tons, at a relatively high level, and the current inventory pressure is large [9] - **Trading Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to wait and see [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report provides multiple charts related to the futures and spot market of hot - rolled coils, including spot prices, regional price differences, contract basis, and price differences between different contracts. It also shows the price relationships between hot - rolled coils and other products such as cold - rolled coils, iron ore, and rebar [16][20][34] 3. Profit and Inventory - The report presents charts of the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, as well as the profits of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces. It also shows the inventory data of hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and coated plates, including total inventory, social inventory, and steel mill inventory [57][62][68] 4. Cost Side - The report includes charts of the futures closing prices of iron ore and coke, as well as the price of scrap steel. It also shows data on daily average pig iron output, iron - making costs, and the prices of related products [78][79][84] 5. Supply Side - It shows the weekly production, cumulative year - on - year production, and capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, color - coated plates, and galvanized plates in different regions [93][94][102] 6. Demand Side - The report provides data on the apparent consumption of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, as well as the production and sales data of downstream products such as automobiles, tractors, home appliances, and metal containers [111][112][115] 7. Other - It includes production data of engines, civilian steel ships, and EMUs [130][131]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is favorable, and the prices of finished steel products continue to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern [11][12] - Overseas, after the Fed's interest - rate meeting, the monetary policy stance is cautious, falling short of market expectations. A preventive interest - rate cut has begun, and market expectations are gradually being met. Short - term market sentiment has cooled slightly, while long - term global liquidity easing is expected to drive the recovery of the manufacturing industry, indirectly boosting steel demand. The marginal impact of interest - rate cuts on total steel demand remains [11][12] - Domestically, the economic data in August slowed down and were lower than expected, increasing the possibility of introducing more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales performance is weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. Export volume decreased slightly last week and is generally in a weak and volatile state [11][12] - In terms of fundamentals, the output of rebar decreased, apparent demand increased slightly, and inventory pressure was marginally relieved; the output of hot - rolled coils increased, apparent demand was neutral, and inventory increased slightly. Currently, the demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils is weak, and the peak - season demand is not strong. Overall, although it has entered the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar remains weak, and while hot - rolled coils have some resilience, they are still generally weak. Steel mill profits are gradually narrowing, and if demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may still decline. The raw - material end is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the policy trends of the upcoming Fourth Plenary Session [11][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Cost End - The profit of hot - rolled coil blast furnaces is 67 yuan/ton, a slight increase compared to last week. The spot price is about 26 yuan/ton higher than the futures price, and the valuation is neutral [7] 3.2 Supply End - This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 3.26 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 14,000 tons, about an 8.0% year - on - year increase compared to the same week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.2%. The daily average output of hot metal was 2.4055 million tons, and hot - metal output has remained above 2.4 million tons. Currently, the output of hot - rolled coils is relatively high, and it is necessary to monitor whether demand can absorb the output [8] 3.3 Demand End - This week, the consumption of hot - rolled coils was 3.22 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43,000 tons, about a 1.9% year - on - year increase compared to the same week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.6%. Overall demand is neutral, and exports currently have some resilience [9][116] 3.4 Inventory - This week, the inventory of hot - rolled coils was 3.7799 million tons, and the inventory was marginally reduced [10] 3.5 Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [13]

Report Title - Hot Rolled Coil Weekly Report 2025/08/16 [1] Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has significantly cooled, and the prices of finished products have slightly corrected. The real estate industry continues to be in a downturn, and the demand outlook remains pessimistic. The demand for hot-rolled coils shows signs of recovery, with production basically unchanged and the inventory accumulation rate slowing down. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may be difficult to maintain the current level, and the futures price may gradually return to being dominated by supply and demand. It is recommended to continuously monitor the progress of terminal demand repair and the support of the cost side for the prices of finished products [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Weekly Points Summary - **Cost Side**: The profit of hot-rolled coil blast furnaces is 154 yuan/ton, slightly down from last week. The spot price is about 11 yuan/ton higher than the futures price, with a moderately high valuation [7] - **Supply Side**: This week, the output of hot-rolled coils was 3.16 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.7 million tons, a year-on-year increase of about 4.0% compared to the same week last year, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of about 0.6%. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4066 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.34 million tons, and the pig iron output has remained above 2.4 million tons [8] - **Demand Side**: This week, the consumption of hot-rolled coils was 3.15 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 85,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 5.4% compared to the same week last year, and a cumulative year-on-year increase of about 1.5%. The demand has increased significantly, with the demand for medium and heavy plates and hot-rolled coils performing well, while the demand for cold-rolled coils remains weak [9] - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of hot-rolled coils was 3.5747 million tons, with a slight inventory accumulation but a significantly slower growth rate [10] 2. Trading Strategy Suggestion - The recommended strategy is to wait and see [13] 3. Other Sections - The report also includes various charts related to the hot-rolled coil market, such as spot and futures prices, regional price differences, basis, profit, inventory, and cost, as well as data on related products like cold-rolled coils, coated plates, and raw materials such as iron ore, coke, and scrap steel [17][56][79]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is warm, and the prices of finished products continue to show a strong trend. The cost side provides obvious support for steel prices. The start of the Medog Hydropower Station has significantly increased the market's expectation for the future demand of building materials such as finished products and cement. In the short term, there is an expectation of production capacity reduction on the supply side, and the demand side is boosted by the launch of large - scale infrastructure projects. With the current low inventory levels of finished products, prices may have a basis for continuous strengthening. The market is currently more affected by policies and sentiment, and future attention should be paid to policy signals, terminal demand repair, and cost - side support [10][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost Side**: The hot - rolled coil's disk profit is 185 yuan/ton, and the spot premium over the disk is about - 167 yuan/ton, with a relatively high valuation [7] - **Supply Side**: This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 3.17 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 37,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 2.9% for the single week, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 0.4%. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4223 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 210,000 tons, and the pig iron output remained at a relatively high level [8] - **Demand Side**: This week, the consumption of hot - rolled coils was 3.15 million tons, a week - on - week change of - 86,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 3.9% for the single week, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.3%. Due to the price increase, the actual demand decreased slightly this week [9] - **Inventory**: This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory was 3.4516 million tons, with a slight accumulation [10] - **Trading Strategy**: The recommendation is to wait and see, and no specific trading strategy details are provided [12] 2. Spot and Futures Market - Multiple charts are presented, including the spot price of hot - rolled Q235B 4.75mm, various regional price differences, contract basis, futures price differences, and price ratios between different products, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of Minmetals Futures [18][21][23] 3. Profit and Inventory - Charts show the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces for rebar, and the inventory data of hot - rolled, cold - rolled, and coated plates, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of Minmetals Futures [54][56][59] 4. Cost Side - Charts display the futures closing prices of iron ore, coke, and the price of scrap steel, as well as pig iron output, iron - making cost, and billet price, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of Minmetals Futures [74][76][79] 5. Supply Side - Charts show the weekly output, cumulative year - on - year change, and capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled, cold - rolled, and coated plates in different regions and samples, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of Minmetals Futures [91][93][98] 6. Demand Side - The consumption of hot - rolled coils this week was 3.15 million tons, with a week - on - week change of - 86,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 3.9% for the single week, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.3%. Multiple charts show the apparent consumption of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, as well as the production and sales data of downstream industries such as automobiles, home appliances, and agricultural machinery, with data sources from MYSTEEL and the research center of Minmetals Futures [9][109][110]

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