01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润和库存 短期驱动不足， 延续震荡格局 钢材周报 2026/01/10 0755-23375155 zhaoh3@wkqh.cn 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 赵航 （联系人） 从业资格号：F03133652 CONTENTS 目录 06 需求与进出口 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度小结 ◆ 供应：本周螺纹总产量191万吨，环比+1.50%，同比-7.27%，累计产量379.26万吨，同比-6.45%。长流程产量158万吨，环比+0.50%，同比- 10.88%，短流程产量33万吨，环比+6.61%，同比+15.31%。本周热轧板卷产量306万吨，较上周环比变化+1.0万吨，较上年单周同比约+0.9%， 累计同比约+0.6%。 本周铁水日均产量为229.5万吨，铁水小幅回升，螺纹产量持续回落，热卷产量偏高，供应端仍具有一定压力。利润方面，华东地区螺纹高炉 利润维持68元/吨附近，高炉利润中性；谷电利润为81元/吨，电炉利润水平偏高。 ◆ 需求：本周螺纹表需175万吨，前值200万 ...

钢铁周报 20260104 铁矿补库预期增强，钢材出口短期承压 glmszqdatemark | 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | | | （元） | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 000932.SZ | 华菱钢铁 | 5.62 | 0.50 | 0.58 | 0.64 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 推荐 | | 600019.SH | 宝钢股份 | 7.45 | 0.49 | 0.56 | 0.62 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 推荐 | | 600282.SH | 南钢股份 | 5.26 | 0.46 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 推荐 | | 301160.SZ | 翔楼新材 | 71.89 | 2.99 | 3.63 | 4.33 | 24 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, New Steel Co., has provided insights into its product categories and market strategies in response to investor inquiries, indicating a flexible approach to adjusting metal flows and product structures based on market conditions [2] Product Categories - The main product categories of the company include rebar, wire rod, medium and heavy plates, hot-rolled coils, cold-rolled sheets, electrical steel, special steel strips, and others such as steel strands [2] - The company emphasizes that detailed data on each product can be found in its annual reports [2]

2025年12月26日钼价和钢价一览 | | | 中鸽在线主要钥产品与钢材报价表 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025年12月26日 | | | | | 产品名称 | | 规格/含量 | 中钨在线报价 | 涨跌 | 車位 | | | 領鉄 | Mo60 | 244,000.00 | ↑ 2,000 | 元/吨 | | | 領精矿 | 40-45% | 3,730.00 | r | 元/吨度 | | | 铝酸钠 | ≥98% | 173,000.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 书 | 四钥酸铵 | 级品 | 233,000.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 亡品 | 七辑酸铵 | 级品 | 238,000.00 | - | 元/吨 | | | 領粉 | MP-1 | 450.00 | - | 元/千克 | | | 钼条 | Mo-1 | 452.00 | - | 元/千克 | | | 氧化钼 | ≥51% | 3.830.00 | - | 元/吨度 | | | 废钼 | WWWWW10 VDCen37800 COM | | CH | ...

Core Insights - The steel industry is expected to recover in 2025 after three years of decline, driven by improvements in cost and supply sides [4][7][16] - The majority of profits in the black industrial chain are captured by iron ore, with profit shares of 72% for iron ore, 6% for coking coal, and 22% for steel [4][7] - The West Manganese project is seen as a potential solution to redirect profits back to the domestic steel industry [4][7] Profitability - In Q4 2025, prices for rebar, hot-rolled, iron ore, and coking coal decreased by 7.1%, 6.0%, 1.0%, and 12.5% year-on-year, respectively, with coking coal showing a significant price drop [7][18] - The decline in coking coal prices has alleviated cost pressures for steel companies, leading to a rebound in profitability [18][21] - The overall profit for the steel industry is expected to improve as demand stabilizes and costs decrease [7][21] Supply - The actual crude steel production in 2025 is expected to remain flat year-on-year, despite improved profitability encouraging production [20][21] - The supply side has not yet contracted as expected, with administrative production limits still pending implementation [16][20] - The discrepancy in production statistics indicates that crude steel output may be underestimated due to reporting practices [21][23] Demand - Steel inventory has been successfully reduced to low levels, indicating a stabilization in apparent consumption [26][27] - The demand structure shows a decline in rebar consumption by 5.4%, while hot-rolled and cold-rolled products saw increases of 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively [30][31] - Strong external demand, particularly in machinery and equipment exports, is expected to support steel demand [31][40] Outlook for 2026 - Steel demand is anticipated to remain stable, supported by infrastructure and manufacturing investments as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [42][46] - The decline in new housing starts is expected to moderate, reducing the negative impact on steel demand from the real estate sector [46][48] - Global monetary and fiscal policies are expected to become more accommodative, further supporting steel demand through improved economic conditions [48][49] Policy and Regulation - The introduction of export license management for certain steel products aims to curb low-end exports and improve market stability [51][52] - The focus on "graded management" policies is expected to lead to a reduction in outdated production capacity, benefiting compliant and high-quality steel producers [52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies in the steel industry, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a disturbance in raw material supply, leading to differentiated performance in rebar and wire rod prices. The recent policy changes regarding coal export tariffs and the implementation of export licenses for steel products are expected to impact supply dynamics and pricing [9][12]. - Steel prices have shown an upward trend, with specific increases noted in various steel products as of December 19, 2025. For instance, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar rose to 3,320 CNY/ton, a 2.2% increase from the previous week [9][16]. - The report indicates a rise in steel profits, with margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel increasing by 32 CNY/ton, 23 CNY/ton, and 9 CNY/ton respectively [9][33]. - Inventory levels for major steel products have decreased, with total social inventory dropping by 351,800 tons to 9,054,600 tons as of December 19, 2025 [9][33]. Summary by Sections Domestic Steel Market - As of December 19, 2025, domestic steel prices have increased, with notable price changes across various products, including rebar and hot-rolled steel [9][16]. - The report details specific price movements, such as a 70 CNY/ton increase for rebar and a 50 CNY/ton increase for high-speed wire [9][17]. Profit Situation - The report estimates an increase in steel profits, with significant improvements in margins for both long and short process steel production [9][33]. Production and Inventory - Total production of major steel products decreased to 7.98 million tons, with a notable drop in inventory levels, indicating a tightening supply situation [9][33]. Key Companies and Valuation - The report provides a detailed valuation and earnings forecast for key companies, all of which are rated as "Buy." For example, Hualing Steel is projected to have an EPS of 0.29 CNY in 2024, with a PE ratio of 19 [2][3].

2025年12月17日钼价和钢价一览 | | | 中钨在线主要钥产品与钢材报价表 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025年12月17日 | | | | | 产品名称 | 相鉄 | 规格/含量 Mo60 | 中钨在线报价 237,000.00 | 涨跌 1,000 | 単位 元/吨 | | | 領精矿 | 40-45% | 3.700.00 | | 元/吨度 | | | 領数納 | ≥98% | 173,000.00 | | 冗/吨 | | | 四钼酸铵 | 级品 | 233,000.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 用 产 | 七钼酸铵 | 级品 | 238,000.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 品 | | | | | | | | 相粉 | MP-1 | 453.00 | 1 | 元/千克 | | | 错条 | Mo-1 | 455.00 | - | 元/千克 | | | 氧化钼 | ≥51% | 3,800.00 | - | 元/吨度 | | | 废钼 | WW铝板坯10 VDCen37800 COM. | | CH | 元/千克 ...

2025年12月15日钼价和钢价一览 | | | 中钙在线主要钥产品与钢材报价表 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025年12月15日 | | | | | 产品名称 | | 规格/含量 | 中钨在线报价 | 涨跌 | 車位 | | | 領鉄 | Mo60 | 240,000.00 | - | 元/吨 | | | 領精矿 | 40-45% | 3,700.00 | ↓ 20 | 元/吨度 | | | 領数納 | ≥98% | 173,000.00 | - | 兀陣 | | 书 | 四钼酸铵 | 级品 | 233,000.00 | - | 元/吨 | | Iz | 七钥酸铵 | 级品 | 238,000.00 | - | 元/吨 | | | 相粉 | MP-1 | 453.00 | - | 元/千克 | | | 错条 | Mo-1 | 455.00 | - | 元/千克 | | | 氧化钼 | ≥51% | 3,800.00 | ↓ 20 | 元/吨度 | | | 废卸 WW | 铝板坯 who | 378.00 | | 元/千克 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [3]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need for deep reforms to address "involution" competition in the steel industry, with the central government advocating for a unified national market and stricter export management [2]. - The introduction of export licenses for certain steel products is expected to limit the export of low-value-added products, encouraging steel companies to upgrade to higher-end products [2]. - In the short term, low-value-added products may face adjustments, while the long-term trend will see an increase in the export proportion of high-end products, benefiting leading companies in the industry [2]. Summary by Sections Domestic Steel Market - As of December 12, 2025, steel prices have decreased, with HRB400 rebar priced at 3,250 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY from the previous week [7][16]. - The report notes a decline in production and inventory levels, with total steel production at 8.06 million tons, a decrease of 227,300 tons week-on-week [7][16]. International Steel Market - The report highlights stable price increases in the U.S. and European steel markets, with U.S. hot-rolled coil prices at 985 USD/ton, up 10 USD from the previous week [28][30]. Raw Materials and Shipping Market - Domestic iron ore prices have shown a mixed trend, with some prices remaining stable while others have decreased slightly [33]. - The report indicates a decline in scrap steel prices, with the current price at 2,080 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY from the previous week [33]. Company Valuations and Stock Performance - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, with Hualing Steel projected to have an EPS of 0.29 CNY in 2024 and a PE ratio of 18 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the commodity market maintained an adjustment pattern, with finished product prices oscillating in the bottom area. Rebar showed a neutral performance with both supply and demand declining and inventory continuously decreasing. For hot-rolled coils, production increased, apparent demand slightly declined, and inventory only decreased slightly. The decision by South Korea to impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel products may pressure China's steel exports. Steel demand has entered the seasonal off - season, and hot - rolled coil inventory pressure remains. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of production cuts. Macro - level important meetings in early December need continuous tracking [9][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: The hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit is - 50 yuan/ton, the gross profit has a slight increase, and the futures premium is about 3 yuan/ton, with a neutral valuation [7] - Supply side: This week, the hot - rolled coil production was 3.19 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.3% for the single week and about 2.0% for the cumulative year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.3468 million tons, with a larger - than - expected decline. The hot - rolled coil production is high, and the supply pressure is large [7] - Demand side: This week, the hot - rolled coil consumption was 3.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 42,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 0.4% for the single week and about 1.4% for the cumulative year. Affected by weak infrastructure and manufacturing demand, the current plate demand is weak [8] - Inventory: This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory was 400,900 tons, at a high level with significant inventory pressure [9] - Strategy: The recommended strategy is to wait and see [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report provides multiple charts related to the futures and spot market of hot - rolled coils, including spot prices, regional price differences, basis of different contracts, futures contract price differences, and price ratios with other products such as rebar and iron ore [16][20][34] 3. Profit and Inventory - Profit: Charts show the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, as well as the profits of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces [56][58] - Inventory: Charts display the total inventory, social inventory, and steel mill inventory of hot - rolled, cold - rolled, and coated plates [60][64][70] 4. Cost Side - The report presents charts of the futures closing prices of iron ore and coke, as well as the price of scrap steel, daily average pig iron output, iron - making cost, and the prices of related products such as steel billets [76][78][81] 5. Supply Side - Hot - rolled coil production: Weekly production, cumulative year - on - year growth, and production in different regions (north, south, and east China) are shown, along with capacity utilization rates [91][93][94] - Cold - rolled coil production: Weekly production, cumulative year - on - year growth, production in different regions, and capacity utilization rates are presented [99][102][103] - Coated plate production: Weekly production and capacity utilization rates of color - coated and galvanized plates are provided [104][105] 6. Demand Side - Hot - rolled coil consumption: Apparent consumption, cumulative year - on - year growth, and consumption - related data of downstream industries such as automobiles, tractors, home appliances, and metal containers are shown [108][109][111]