Report Title - Hot Rolled Coil Weekly Report 2025/11/22 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The steel price is under short - term pressure, and the market is waiting for policy signals. In the short term, due to the weakening of interest - rate cut expectations, the commodity market sentiment is generally cold, and prices may continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom. However, as the Fed's easing expectations are gradually realized and positive signals are released from the China - US meeting, market sentiment and the capital environment are expected to improve. If the manufacturing repair trend continues, the steel consumption side may gradually stabilize and recover. In the medium term, as subsequent growth - stabilizing policies are gradually implemented and the macro - environment improves marginally, steel demand is expected to reach an inflection point and achieve a moderate recovery [1][9][10] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost Side**: The hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit is - 57 yuan/ton, with a slight decline in gross profit. The futures price is about 10 yuan/ton higher than the spot price, and the valuation is neutral [7] - **Supply Side**: This week, the hot - rolled coil production was 3.16 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons, about a 2.4% year - on - week increase, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.9%. The daily average pig iron output this week was 2.3628 million tons, with a slight decline. The current hot - rolled coil production is relatively high, and the subsequent production reduction rhythm needs to be monitored [7] - **Demand Side**: This week, the hot - rolled coil consumption was 3.24 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 108,000 tons, about a 2.2% year - on - week increase, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.4%. Affected by the weak demand in infrastructure and manufacturing, the current demand for sheet metal is weak. Although the demand for hot - rolled coils increased slightly this week, the demand level is difficult to absorb the production [8] - **Inventory**: This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory was 402,110 tons, at a relatively high level, and the current inventory pressure is large [9] - **Trading Strategy**: The recommended strategy is to wait and see [11] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report provides multiple charts related to the futures and spot market of hot - rolled coils, including spot prices, regional price differences, contract basis, and price differences between different contracts. It also shows the price relationships between hot - rolled coils and other products such as cold - rolled coils, iron ore, and rebar [16][20][34] 3. Profit and Inventory - The report presents charts of the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, as well as the profits of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces. It also shows the inventory data of hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and coated plates, including total inventory, social inventory, and steel mill inventory [57][62][68] 4. Cost Side - The report includes charts of the futures closing prices of iron ore and coke, as well as the price of scrap steel. It also shows data on daily average pig iron output, iron - making costs, and the prices of related products [78][79][84] 5. Supply Side - It shows the weekly production, cumulative year - on - year production, and capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, color - coated plates, and galvanized plates in different regions [93][94][102] 6. Demand Side - The report provides data on the apparent consumption of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, as well as the production and sales data of downstream products such as automobiles, tractors, home appliances, and metal containers [111][112][115] 7. Other - It includes production data of engines, civilian steel ships, and EMUs [130][131]

Core Views - The steel industry is expected to face oversupply issues in 2026, with prices likely to remain volatile [4][49] - The trend of "anti-involution" continues, with supply-side reforms expected to constrain crude steel production by 5%-10% [3][4] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply remains robust, with iron water production at a high level; as of November 2025, the average daily iron water output was 2.38 million tons, up 3.7% year-on-year [3][8] - Steel production is projected to decline slightly in 2025, with a cumulative crude steel output of 820 million tons, down 4% year-on-year [3][15] - Demand for steel is expected to see a slight increase in 2025, driven by plate steel, while long steel products face challenges; total apparent steel consumption reached 930 million tons, up 5% year-on-year [3][22] Price Trends - Steel prices are anticipated to decline in 2025, with an expected range of 3000-3500 RMB/ton; the price is projected to stabilize in 2026 [3][4] - The decline in coking coal prices is expected to contribute to lower steel prices, with iron ore prices also having room to decrease [3][4] Profitability Outlook - The steel industry is expected to maintain profitability in 2025 due to declining costs, with average gross margins at their best levels from 2021 to 2025 [3][4] - The anticipated recovery in rebar prices to around 3500 RMB/ton could lead to an increase in profitability by 50-100 RMB/ton [3][4] Investment Strategy - Focus on product structure transformation and high-growth segments; recommended companies include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel [3][4] - Investment lines for 2026 include stable profits from leading steel companies and opportunities in downstream sectors with strong profitability [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, based on their projected earnings and valuations [3][4]. Core Insights - The Ximangdu Iron Mine has officially commenced production, with a total designed capacity of 120 million tons per year, expected to gradually ramp up over the next 2-3 years. This high-quality iron ore resource is anticipated to lower iron ore prices, alleviating pressure on steel mill profits [3][4]. - Steel prices have decreased, with notable declines in rebar and medium plates, while hot-rolled and cold-rolled prices remained stable [1][9]. - Steel production has decreased, with a total output of 8.34 million tons for major steel products, down by 223,600 tons week-on-week. Total social inventory also fell by 136,300 tons [2][6]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of November 14, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3,170 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other steel products also saw price changes, with hot-rolled at 3,280 CNY/ton and cold-rolled at 3,770 CNY/ton remaining stable [1][9]. Production and Inventory - The total production of major steel products was 8.34 million tons, with rebar production specifically reduced to 2 million tons, a decrease of 85,400 tons week-on-week. Total social inventory decreased to 10.602 million tons [2][6]. Profitability - Steel margins have declined, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins decreasing by 29 CNY/ton, 37 CNY/ton, and 39 CNY/ton respectively. Electric arc furnace steel margins also saw a slight decrease of 2 CNY/ton [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their market positioning and expected performance, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others in various segments such as special steel and pipe materials [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others [3][4]. Core Views - The steel industry is gradually entering the off-season, with differentiated performance among various products. Steel production and apparent consumption are both declining, indicating seasonal characteristics. Inventory reduction rates are similar to previous years, but absolute inventory levels remain high. Steel mill profits are at low levels, and a seasonal downward trend is expected in both supply and demand [3][4]. - The report highlights that the production structure is changing, with some steel mills shifting from rebar production to plate production due to weak real estate demand. This has led to an increase in plate production and a decrease in rebar production, with supply changes outpacing demand changes in the short term [3][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of November 7, 2025, steel prices have decreased, with rebar priced at 3200 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton from the previous week. Hot-rolled and cold-rolled prices also saw declines of 60 CNY/ton and 50 CNY/ton, respectively [1][10]. Production and Inventory - Total steel production for the week was 8.57 million tons, a decrease of 185,500 tons from the previous week. Social inventory decreased by 20,400 tons to 10.7383 million tons, while steel mill inventory fell by 80,900 tons [2][3]. Profitability - Steel mill profits have declined, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins decreasing by 7 CNY/ton, 38 CNY/ton, and 10 CNY/ton, respectively. Electric arc furnace steel margins also fell by 14 CNY/ton [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, highlighting their potential for recovery in profitability due to capacity regulation and precise management [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the steel industry, indicating a cautious outlook due to seasonal demand weakness and supply constraints [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry continues to experience a dual weakness in supply and demand, with average daily pig iron production from sample steel mills decreasing by 21,400 tons. The industry is entering a traditional off-season, leading to a seasonal decline in demand, with weekly consumption of major materials dropping by 494,700 tons. Profit margins for sample enterprises have fallen below 40%, indicating ongoing profit contraction and potential for increased maintenance activities among steel mills. Consequently, the supply side may see further reductions, but weak demand during the off-season is unlikely to provide effective support for steel prices in the short term [3][10]. - The steel sector index closed at 2,736.97 points, reflecting a weekly increase of 4.39%, outperforming the broader market index which rose by 0.63% during the same period [4][6]. - The report emphasizes a long-term positive outlook on the "anti-involution" trend, which is expected to optimize the supply structure and align it better with demand changes, potentially leading to a revaluation of industry logic and recovery in sector valuations [10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of November 7, the steel industry comprises 53 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,086.616 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 971.138 billion yuan [6]. Production Data - The total production of the five major steel products reached 8,567,400 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 185,500 tons. The average daily pig iron production from 247 steel enterprises was 2,342,200 tons, down by 21,400 tons week-on-week. The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 87.81%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points [9][10]. Consumption Data - Weekly consumption of the five major materials totaled 8,669,300 tons, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 494,700 tons. Specific product consumption changes included a decrease of 136,700 tons for rebar and 102,100 tons for wire rods [9][10]. Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory reached 15,035,700 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 101,900 tons. Social inventory decreased by 21,000 tons to 10,750,000 tons, while steel mill inventory fell by 80,900 tons to 4,285,700 tons [9][10]. Profitability - As of November 7, the gross profit margins for high furnace rebar, hot-rolled sheets, and cold-rolled sheets were -39 yuan/ton, -80 yuan/ton, and -118 yuan/ton, respectively. The profitability rate among the sample steel enterprises was 39.83%, down by 5.19 percentage points week-on-week [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others [5]. Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic sentiment is improving, leading to a continuous improvement in steel demand [5]. - Steel prices have shown an upward trend, with specific price increases noted for various steel products as of October 31 [3][10]. - The overall steel production has increased, while total inventory has decreased, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance [4][5]. - Long-term capacity control remains a key theme, with expectations for improved profitability for steel companies under precise regulation [5]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of October 31, 2025, the prices for various steel products in Shanghai are as follows: HRB400 rebar at 3210 CNY/ton (up 20 CNY), high line at 3400 CNY/ton (up 30 CNY), hot-rolled at 3340 CNY/ton (up 40 CNY), cold-rolled at 3820 CNY/ton (up 40 CNY), and medium plate at 3380 CNY/ton (unchanged) [3][10]. Profitability - Steel profits have decreased this week, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins changing by -40 CNY/ton, -2 CNY/ton, and -16 CNY/ton respectively. Electric arc furnace steel margins increased by 6 CNY/ton [3]. Production and Inventory - As of October 31, total steel production reached 8.75 million tons, an increase of 99,700 tons week-on-week. Total inventory decreased by 226,700 tons to 10.7585 million tons [4][5]. - Rebar apparent consumption increased to 2.3219 million tons, up 61,900 tons week-on-week [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests investing in leading steel companies such as Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and Nanjing Steel, as well as companies in the special steel and pipe sectors [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3][3][3]. Core Views - The revision of the capacity replacement plan by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the steel industry marginally. The new draft includes stricter compliance requirements for capacity replacement, which may lead to a more regulated market [3][3]. - The report notes a decrease in steel profits, with specific margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel declining by 7, 17, and 23 yuan per ton, respectively, while electric arc furnace steel margins increased by 1 yuan per ton [1][1][1]. - Steel production increased to 8.65 million tons, with a notable rise in rebar production, while total inventory decreased by 260,100 tons, indicating a tightening market [2][2][2]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of October 24, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai was 3,190 yuan per ton, down 20 yuan from the previous week. Hot-rolled steel increased by 20 yuan to 3,300 yuan per ton, while cold-rolled steel rose by 10 yuan to 3,780 yuan per ton [1][12][13]. Production and Inventory - The total production of the five major steel products reached 8.65 million tons, an increase of 83,700 tons week-on-week. The total inventory of these products decreased by 260,100 tons to 1,098.5 million tons [2][2][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies within the steel sector, particularly those that are expected to benefit from the revised capacity replacement regulations. Specific companies highlighted include Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others across various segments [3][3][3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak this week, with the prices of finished steel products fluctuating downward. At the macro - level, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee set "high - quality development" as the core task for the 14th Five - Year Plan period, which may bring new impetus to steel consumption. The demand structure of steel will shift from traditional real - estate construction to high - end manufacturing, green infrastructure, and new - quality productivity. In terms of fundamentals, the supply and demand of rebar both increased, and inventory decreased, showing a neutral performance. The output of hot - rolled coils decreased slightly, demand rebounded, inventory decreased marginally but remained at a relatively high level, and the inventory contradiction was slightly alleviated. The profitability rate of steel mills declined significantly, and the molten iron output dropped notably, reducing the supply - side pressure marginally. In the long run, the logic of the medium - to - long - term trend of steel prices remains unchanged under the gradually loosening macro - environment, but in the short term, the weak real - demand pattern of steel is difficult to improve significantly [10][11] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Cost End - The blast - furnace profit of hot - rolled coils was - 56 yuan/ton, and the blast - furnace gross profit continued to shrink. The spot price was about 90 yuan/ton higher than the futures price, with a neutral - to - low valuation [7] Supply End - This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 3.22 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 5.6% compared with the same single - week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.8%. The daily average output of molten iron was 2.399 million tons this week, with a significant decrease, and the supply - side pressure decreased marginally. The output of hot - rolled coils was moderately high, and attention should be paid to whether the output can decrease in the future [8] Demand End - This week, the consumption of hot - rolled coils was 3.27 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 112,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2.5% compared with the same single - week last year, and a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 1.4%. The demand rebounded significantly, but the inventory reduction was slow. The export increased week - on - week, and the demand level was neutral [9] Inventory - This week, the inventory of hot - rolled coils was 4.1492 million tons. The inventory decreased slightly, but the inventory level was still high [10] Strategy Recommendation - The recommended strategy was to wait and see [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The report presented multiple charts related to the futures and spot market of hot - rolled coils, including spot prices, regional price differences, contract basis, futures contract price differences, and price differences between hot - rolled coils and other products such as cold - rolled coils, coated coils, and galvanized sheets [17][21][36] 3. Profit and Inventory - The report showed charts of the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, the profits of rebar blast furnaces and electric furnaces, and the inventory of hot - rolled, cold - rolled, and coated sheets [56][57][62] 4. Cost End - The report included charts of the futures closing prices of iron ore and coke, the price of scrap steel, the daily average molten iron output, the cost of molten iron, and the prices of steel - making pig iron and billets [77][78][82] 5. Supply End - The report presented charts of the weekly output, cumulative year - on - year output, and capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils in different regions and samples, as well as the weekly output of coated and galvanized sheets and their capacity utilization rates [90][91][104] 6. Demand End - The report showed charts of the apparent consumption of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, the production and sales of automobiles, the production of agricultural machinery, household appliances, metal containers, railway locomotives, and other products related to steel demand [107][108][111]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others [3][4]. Core Insights - Steel prices have slightly declined, with the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai at 3210 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton from the previous week [1][11]. - The report highlights a decrease in steel production and inventory levels, with total production of the five major steel products at 8.57 million tons, a decrease of 63,600 tons week-on-week [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" meeting, which is expected to guide long-term economic development and capacity regulation in the steel industry [3][8]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of October 17, steel prices have shown a downward trend, with specific price changes for various steel products, including a 120 CNY/ton decrease for hot-rolled steel [1][12]. Production and Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 23,800 tons to 11.2451 million tons, with a notable reduction in rebar inventory [2][3]. Profitability - Steel margins have decreased, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins down by 36 CNY/ton, 55 CNY/ton, and 17 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and Nanjing Steel in the general steel sector, and specific companies in the special steel and pipe sectors [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others in the special steel and pipe sectors [5]. Core Viewpoints - Steel mill profits are under pressure due to rising inventory levels and escalating overseas trade frictions, with production remaining high during the National Day holiday [5]. - The EU has proposed to cut tax-free steel import quotas by 47% to 18.3 million tons per year, increasing tariffs on excess imports from 25% to 50%, which may suppress steel exports from China and the US [5]. - Long-term capacity regulation is expected to be a key theme, with potential recovery in profitability for steel companies under precise control measures [5]. Price Trends - As of October 10, steel prices have increased, with rebar prices at 3,260 CNY/ton (up 50 CNY), hot-rolled prices at 3,400 CNY/ton (up 60 CNY), and cold-rolled prices at 3,810 CNY/ton (up 10 CNY) [3][12]. - The overall steel inventory has risen, with total social inventory increasing by 691,100 tons to 11,268,900 tons [4]. Production and Inventory - Total production of major steel products decreased to 8.63 million tons, a reduction of 37,600 tons week-on-week, with rebar production down to 2.034 million tons [4]. - The apparent consumption of rebar fell to 1.4601 million tons, a decrease of 950,600 tons week-on-week [4]. Profitability - Steel margins have declined, with long-process rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins decreasing by 11 CNY/ton, 10 CNY/ton, and 15 CNY/ton respectively [3][5]. Key Company Forecasts and Valuations - Hualing Steel (EPS: 0.29 CNY, PE: 22), Baosteel (EPS: 0.34 CNY, PE: 21), and Nanjing Steel (EPS: 0.37 CNY, PE: 15) are highlighted as recommended stocks [5].