Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, recommending several companies within the sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is expected to prolong, leading to a strong price trend in the steel market. The raw material prices are likely to fluctuate due to the conflict, with potential supply constraints affecting mining operations [9][31]. - Steel production remains stable, with a notable decrease in total inventory, indicating a healthy demand-supply balance. The report anticipates that carbon reduction requirements will impose constraints on steel supply, which may lead to a recovery in steel company profits [9][31]. Summary by Sections Domestic Steel Market - As of March 27, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar is 3200 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other steel products show mixed price movements, with cold-rolled steel increasing by 10 CNY/ton to 3710 CNY/ton [14][15]. International Steel Market - In the U.S., hot-rolled steel prices are at 1120 USD/ton, down 2 USD/ton, while in Europe, prices are relatively stable with slight increases in some categories [26][28]. Raw Materials and Shipping Market - Domestic iron ore prices remain stable, while imported iron ore prices have seen slight declines. The report notes a decrease in scrap steel prices to 2150 CNY/ton [31][36]. Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides profit forecasts for key companies, with several firms such as Hualing Steel, Baosteel, and Nanjing Steel receiving "Buy" recommendations based on their projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios [2][9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is expected to see a recovery in steel prices due to significant inventory reduction and improved demand as the traditional peak season approaches [9][14] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the US-Iran situation, are causing fluctuations in the domestic market, but rising raw material prices are providing short-term support for steel prices [9][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of optimizing the supply structure towards low-carbon and high-quality development in the steel sector [13] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Inventory Reduction and Price Recovery - Inventory reduction is evident, with a notable decrease in both social and steel mill inventories [9][20] - The average daily pig iron production is 2.31 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.29% [14] - The report anticipates that the supply side will continue to shrink, leading to a more balanced supply-demand situation in 2026 [13] 2. Supply: Steady Recovery in Downstream Production - The average daily pig iron production increased by 1.29% week-on-week, while rebar production decreased by 2.69% [15][18] - The capacity utilization rates for long-process and short-process rebar production slightly declined [15] 3. Inventory: Clear Reduction in Social and Steel Mill Inventories - Total inventory decreased by 2.49% week-on-week, with social inventory at 1.388 million tons and steel mill inventory at 510 thousand tons [21] - Rebar inventory also showed a reduction, indicating improved demand [21] 4. Demand: Marginal Increase in Steel Demand - The apparent consumption of five major steel products totaled 8.88 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.24% [23][24] - The demand for rebar saw the highest increase, with an 8.30% rise week-on-week [24] 5. Cost and Profitability: Cost Support for Steel Prices - The average pig iron cost (excluding tax) is 2,302 CNY per ton, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.12% [39] - The profitability rate for steel companies is 43.29%, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.87 percentage points [39] 6. Steel Prices: Positive Outlook for Price Increase - The general steel price index increased by 0.08% this week, with specific products showing varied price movements [47][48] - The report suggests that with the recovery in downstream construction, steel prices are expected to continue rising [14][45] 7. Sector Performance: Steel Sector Slightly Up Amid Market Fluctuations - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.09%, while the steel sector index rose by 0.42% [52][53] - The report highlights that the steel sector is performing relatively better compared to the overall market [52]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the steel industry, indicating an improvement in supply and demand during the peak season, leading to a slight recovery in industry profitability [2][4]. Core Insights - The steel industry is experiencing a dual increase in supply and demand, with pig iron production rising above 2.3 million tons and consumption of the five major steel products reaching 8.8797 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 194,900 tons. This improvement in supply and demand has led to a rebound in steel prices and a slight expansion in corporate profitability. However, the overall demand recovery remains slow, resulting in inventory levels still under pressure compared to the same period last year, leading to cautious market sentiment [3][4]. - The report highlights that the upstream raw material-related stocks have performed relatively stable, while the prices of major steel products have shown slight fluctuations. The steel industry is currently in a phase of stable supply and demand, with a potential for recovery in industry prosperity as policies on both supply and demand sides are implemented [4][5]. Industry Data Tracking Production Data - As of March 27, the total production of the five major steel products was 8.3958 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.24 million tons. The average daily pig iron production from 247 steel enterprises was 2.3109 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 29,400 tons. The utilization rate of blast furnace capacity was 86.63%, and the operating rate was 81.03% [10][21]. Consumption Data - The total consumption of the five major steel products reached 8.8797 million tons, with week-on-week increases in rebar (+172,800 tons), wire rod (+73,000 tons), and hot-rolled products (+31,200 tons). However, cold-rolled and medium-thick plates saw decreases of 34,000 tons and 48,100 tons, respectively [10][21]. Inventory Situation - The total steel inventory was 18.9784 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 483,900 tons. Social inventory accounted for 13.8769 million tons, down 23.33% week-on-week, while steel mill inventory was 5.1015 million tons, down 25.06% week-on-week [10][21]. Profitability - As of March 27, the profitability of various steel products was as follows: high furnace rebar (55 CNY/ton), building steel (electric furnace, -91 CNY/ton), hot-rolled sheets (16 CNY/ton), and cold-rolled sheets (-139 CNY/ton). Approximately 43.29% of the sampled steel enterprises were profitable [10][21].

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" and the rating is maintained [5] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the peak season inventory reduction is becoming evident, and a profit turning point is expected. Geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran, have led to increased raw material prices, which are expected to support steel prices in the short term. The domestic crude steel production for January-February 2026 was 160.335 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, while steel product output was 221.19 million tons, down 1.1% year-on-year. The report anticipates a continued reduction in steel industry supply starting in 2026, driven by policies aimed at optimizing supply structures towards low-carbon and environmentally friendly practices [11][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Peak Season Inventory Reduction and Profit Turning Point - The geopolitical situation has caused market fluctuations, with raw material prices rising, providing support for steel prices. The report expects a trend of reduced supply in the steel industry starting in 2026, promoting high-quality development [11]. 2. Supply: Downstream Recovery and Increased Steel Production - The average daily pig iron production was 2.2815 million tons, up 3.14% week-on-week, and rebar production was 2.03 million tons, up 4.11% week-on-week. The report notes a significant increase in production and capacity utilization rates for both long and short process rebar [14][17]. 3. Inventory: Downstream Demand Recovery and Slight Inventory Reduction - Total inventory decreased by 1.45% week-on-week, with social and steel mill inventories both showing a downward trend. The report highlights a recovery in downstream demand, with a total apparent consumption of steel products reaching 8.68 million tons, an increase of 8.82% week-on-week [20][22]. 4. Demand: Entering Traditional Peak Season with Notable Demand Increase - The apparent consumption of steel products has increased significantly, with rebar consumption rising by 17.69% week-on-week. The report indicates that the demand is expected to continue improving as the industry enters its traditional peak season [22][23]. 5. Cost and Profitability: Rising Steel Costs Slightly Squeeze Profits - The average pig iron cost was 2299 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.01% week-on-week. The profitability rate for steel companies was 42.42%, up 1.29 percentage points week-on-week. The report notes that while costs are rising, the high inventory levels of iron ore may provide downward pressure on prices [34][37]. 6. Steel Prices: Effective Cost Support and Positive Demand Outlook - The report states that the steel price index has seen a slight increase of 0.07%, with expectations for continued price support due to rising costs and improving demand conditions [43][44]. 7. Sector Performance: Impact of Geopolitical Tensions - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.38% during the week, while the steel sector index dropped by 10.29%. The report highlights the negative impact of geopolitical tensions on market performance [47][49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, recommending several key companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The raw material prices are showing strong performance, while the finished steel products exhibit mixed results. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is pushing up shipping costs and affecting coal and coke prices, leading to a strong trend in raw material prices. In contrast, the supply and demand dynamics for different steel products are showing structural differentiation, with medium and thick plates and cold-rolled products performing well, while hot-rolled products are weaker [7][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Steel Market - As of March 20, 2026, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3,210 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton from the previous week. The price of 8.0mm high line is 3,380 CNY/ton, down 70 CNY/ton. Hot-rolled 3.0mm is priced at 3,300 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton, while cold-rolled 1.0mm is at 3,700 CNY/ton, up 40 CNY/ton. The price of common medium plate 20mm is 3,380 CNY/ton, up 20 CNY/ton [13][14]. 2. Profitability Analysis - The report indicates fluctuations in steel profits. For long-process steel, the average weekly gross profit for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled products changed by -17 CNY/ton, -12 CNY/ton, and +10 CNY/ton respectively. For short-process steel, the average gross profit for electric arc furnace steel increased by +7 CNY/ton [7]. 3. Production and Inventory - As of March 20, 2026, the total production of five major steel products reached 8.4 million tons, an increase of 188,500 tons week-on-week. The total inventory of these products decreased by 121,400 tons to 14.0954 million tons. The apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 2.0809 million tons, up 312,800 tons week-on-week [7][30]. 4. Key Company Valuations - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies in the steel sector, all rated as "Buy." For example, Hualing Steel is projected to have an EPS of 0.50 CNY in 2025 with a PE ratio of 10, while Baosteel is expected to have an EPS of 0.49 CNY with a PE of 13 [2][3]. 5. Raw Material and Shipping Market - The report notes that domestic iron ore prices are fluctuating, with prices for various grades showing mixed trends. For instance, the price of Anshan iron concentrate is 750 CNY/ton, unchanged from last week, while Benxi iron concentrate is 901 CNY/ton, up 17 CNY/ton. The shipping market is also experiencing fluctuations [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, indicating a positive outlook as the industry enters its traditional peak season with expected improvements in supply and demand dynamics [2]. Core Insights - The supply side shows structural differences, with a notable decline in daily iron water output from 247 sample enterprises due to policy impacts on blast furnace companies. However, electric arc furnace companies are resuming production, leading to an increase in the output of five major steel products to 8.2097 million tons. Demand is driven by construction steel, with average daily transaction volumes nearing 100,000 tons, close to the 2025 annual average of 101.5 million tons. Post "Two Sessions," steel companies are expected to have some recovery motivation, although current profit levels remain low, limiting significant production increases. Future output of five major products is projected to rise by 4-5% in the coming weeks, while demand is expected to rebound by around 7% [3][4]. Industry Data Tracking Production Data - As of March 13, the steel (Shenwan) index closed at 2972.26 points, down 1.67% for the week. The total market capitalization of the steel sector is approximately 1,270.203 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of about 1,134.568 billion yuan [6][4]. Consumption Volume of Major Steel Products - The total consumption of five major steel products reached 7.9808 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 106.73 thousand tons. The apparent consumption of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and medium plate changed by +785.8 thousand tons, +89.1 thousand tons, +137.9 thousand tons, +62.4 thousand tons, and -7.9 thousand tons respectively [8][9]. Inventory Situation - The total steel inventory reached 19.7489 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 2.289 million tons. Social inventory accounted for 1.2328 million tons, up 2.015 million tons week-on-week, while steel mill inventory rose to 5.5161 million tons, an increase of 0.274 million tons [8][9]. Profitability - As of March 13, the profit margins for various steel products are as follows: high furnace rebar at 64 yuan/ton, building steel (electric furnace) at -84 yuan/ton, hot-rolled coil at -9 yuan/ton, and cold-rolled coil at -160 yuan/ton. Approximately 41.13% of the sampled steel enterprises are currently profitable [8][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a transition from the off - season to the peak season, with supply - demand contradictions not fully resolved. Steel prices are likely to remain range - bound in the short term, and the core of the market lies in the strength of demand recovery and inventory depletion rhythm. Attention should be paid to terminal construction start - up rhythm, inventory depletion speed, and raw material price trends [11][12][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: Iron - water output was 2.212 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63,900 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 4.07%. Rebar production was 1.953 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 12.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.00%. Hot - rolled coil production was 2.9526 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.34%. The steel mill profitability rate was 41.13% [11] - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 1.7681 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.18% and a week - on - week increase of 80.00%. Hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 2.9536 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.86% and a week - on - week increase of 4.90%. Plate demand was more resilient than long - product demand [11] - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory was 8.9417 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 403,800 tons. Hot - rolled coil inventory was 4.7159 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 553,700 tons (+13.30%). Both inventories were at relatively high levels [11] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts show the price trends, basis, and price differentials of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contracts, as well as the price trends and differentials of cold - rolled coils, color - coated coils, and galvanized sheets [22][24][27] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - Multiple charts show the profit trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils in the futures market, as well as the profit and inventory trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils from different sources and in different regions [78][80][91] 3.4. Cost Side - Multiple charts show the ratios of rebar to iron ore futures and coke futures, iron - water and crude - steel daily output, billet prices, scrap prices, and scrap consumption [111][114][117] 3.5. Supply Side - Multiple charts show the production, production capacity utilization, and cumulative year - on - year production changes of rebar and hot - rolled coils [135][137][140] 3.6. Demand and Import - Export - Multiple charts show the apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year consumption changes of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the production and export of home appliances, and the import and export volume of steel products [147][150][154]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" and the rating is maintained [6] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is currently facing weak supply and demand dynamics, but inventory levels are low year-on-year. As the traditional manufacturing peak season approaches, demand for steel is expected to improve marginally, potentially driving prices upward. Environmental production restrictions during the Two Sessions have led to a decrease in molten iron output, and the industry is awaiting policy guidance to enhance profitability for steel companies [3][12][13] Supply - The average daily molten iron output this week was 2.2759 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.44%. Rebar production increased by 4.97% week-on-week to 1.73 million tons. The production of hot-rolled steel decreased by 2.75%, while cold-rolled steel production saw a slight increase of 0.87% [15][18] Inventory - Total social inventory increased by 8.29% week-on-week to 14.03 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased slightly by 0.27% to 5.49 million tons. The combined inventory saw a significant week-on-week increase of 5.74% and a year-on-year increase of 4.93% [21][20] Demand - The apparent consumption of steel this week rose significantly, with a total of 6.91 million tons, marking a week-on-week increase of 22.44%. Notably, rebar consumption surged by 192.79% week-on-week. The transaction volume for mainstream building materials reached 56,553 tons, a substantial increase of 62.12% [23][24] Cost and Profitability - The average molten iron cost this week was 2,295 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.12%. The profitability rate for steel companies was 38.10%, down 1.73 percentage points week-on-week. Long-process rebar costs increased by 0.56%, while short-process costs decreased by 0.26%. Long-process rebar profitability fell by 22 yuan, while short-process profitability rose by 5 yuan [33][36][29] Steel Prices - The overall price of common steel has slightly declined, with the common steel price index decreasing by 0.02%. The price of galvanized steel increased by 0.13% to 3,938 yuan per ton, while cold-rolled steel prices fell by 0.19% to 3,697 yuan per ton [40][41] Sector Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,124 points, down 0.93% for the week, while the Shenwan Steel Index closed at 3,023 points, down 3.55% [44][45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the steel industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is currently facing weak supply and demand dynamics, but inventory levels are low compared to last year. As the traditional manufacturing peak season approaches, demand for steel is expected to improve marginally, potentially driving prices up. Environmental production restrictions during the Two Sessions are leading to a decrease in iron water output, awaiting policy guidance to enhance profitability for steel companies [3][12][13] Supply - Average daily iron water output decreased by 2.44% week-on-week to 2.2759 million tons, while rebar production increased by 4.97% week-on-week to 1.73 million tons. The capacity utilization rate for long-process rebar decreased slightly by 0.24 percentage points, while short-process rebar utilization increased significantly by 9.66 percentage points [15][18] Inventory - Total inventory increased by 5.74% week-on-week, with social inventory rising by 8.29% and steel mill inventory slightly decreasing by 0.27%. The total inventory level is up 4.93% year-on-year [21][20] Demand - The apparent consumption of five major steel products rose significantly by 22.44% week-on-week to 6.91 million tons, with rebar consumption increasing the most by 192.79% [23][24] Cost and Profitability - The average iron water cost decreased slightly by 0.12% week-on-week to 2,295 yuan per ton, while the profitability of steel companies dropped by 1.73 percentage points to 38.10% [33][29] Steel Prices - The overall price index for common steel decreased by 0.02% this week, with most steel product prices showing a downward trend. The largest price increase was for galvanized steel at 3,938 yuan per ton, up 0.13% week-on-week [40][41] Sector Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.93% to 4,124 points, while the steel sector index dropped by 3.55% to 3,023 points [44][45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, recommending several key companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the urgency of carbon reduction goals, with the government targeting a 3.8% reduction in carbon intensity per unit of GDP. This highlights the steel industry's significant role as the second-largest carbon emitter after electricity [7]. - International tensions are driving up raw material prices, with costs remaining relatively firm due to rising oil and coal prices. The supply-demand recovery in the steel sector is slow, but the long-term carbon reduction requirements are expected to constrain supply, potentially leading to a recovery in steel company profits [7]. - The report identifies leading companies in various segments: 1. General steel leaders: Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel 2. Special steel segment: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Fangda Special Steel 3. Pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Changbao Co. 4. Raw materials: Dazhong Mining (iron ore + lithium ore), Fangda Carbon [7]. Summary by Sections Domestic Steel Market - As of March 6, 2026, steel prices in Shanghai showed fluctuations, with rebar (20mm HRB400) priced at 3170 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton from the previous week. Hot-rolled and cold-rolled prices also experienced minor changes [14][15]. Profit Situation - The report indicates a decline in steel profits, with average weekly gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel decreasing by 31 CNY/ton, 11 CNY/ton, and 21 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week [7]. Production and Inventory - As of March 6, 2026, the total production of five major steel varieties reached 7.97 million tons, with a slight increase of 0.47 million tons week-on-week. Total inventory also rose by 1.07 million tons to 14.01 million tons [7]. Raw Material Market - The report notes that domestic iron ore prices are fluctuating, while imported ore prices are stable to slightly increasing. As of March 6, 2026, domestic iron ore prices varied, with Anshan iron concentrate at 750 CNY/ton and imported Brazilian powder at 888 CNY/ton [30].