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钢材月报:需求恢复不及预期,钢材高库存压力持续-20251010
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 15:26
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In September 2025, the traditional peak season demand for steel was lower than expected, with weak consumption of rebar and high inventory levels. Although the production of rebar decreased slightly, the inventory only decreased marginally, and the overall level was still significantly higher than the same period last year. For hot-rolled coils, domestic demand was weak due to the slowdown in exports, and the inventory pressure further accumulated due to continuous high production. As the peak season was more than half over, the terminal demand recovered slowly, and the overall demand structure remained weak. The export performance was sluggish, with significant regional structural differentiation. Overall, the steel market in September did not show the characteristics of a peak season, with weak demand and high inventory coexisting, and the futures price continued to be weak. As the peak season was approaching the end, there was still no substantial improvement in demand, and the pressure of inventory accumulation remained high. Attention should be paid to the progress of export improvement and the trends of macro - policies such as the Fourth Plenary Session [11][12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: In September 2025, the average profitability rate of steel mills was 59.25%, a decline from the previous month. The immediate profit of long - process (blast furnace) rebar in East China was about - 17 yuan/ton, and the electric - arc furnace profit was about - 49 yuan/ton. The price showed a weak and volatile trend, and both long - process and short - process production were in the loss range, with the overall profitability of steel mills declining [11] - **Supply**: In September 2025, the production of rebar was 8.4352 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 773,800 tons; the production of hot - rolled coils was 12.9006 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 798,500 tons. The daily average production of hot metal was 2.38 million tons, slightly lower than the previous month but still at a high level. Overall, the steel production remained at a high level, and the supply of both rebar and hot - rolled coils increased compared with the same period last year, with relatively large supply - side pressure [11] - **Demand**: In September 2025, the apparent consumption of rebar was 8.3061 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1578 million tons, with significantly weak demand and the characteristics of the traditional peak season not yet appearing. For hot - rolled coils, the apparent consumption was 12.7502 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 226,300 tons, with overall neutral - to - weak demand. Affected by the weakening of exports and the slowdown in the growth of downstream industries such as home appliances and automobiles, although the demand for hot - rolled coils was resilient, it still lacked continuous bright spots [11] - **Inventory**: As of the end of September, the inventory of rebar was 6.363 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2084 million tons, with significantly increased inventory pressure; the inventory of hot - rolled coils was 3.805 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 191,300 tons, with a relatively fast inventory growth rate and obvious current inventory accumulation. Overall, both rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to accumulate inventory, and there was still pressure on the overall steel de - stocking [11] 2. Spot and Futures Market - Multiple charts are provided to show the price, trading volume, price difference, and basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions and contracts, as well as the price difference between different types of steel products such as cold - rolled, hot - rolled, color - coated, and galvanized steel coils, reflecting the price trends and relationships in the steel spot and futures markets [25][27][30] 3. Profit and Inventory - Multiple charts are presented to show the disk profit, gross profit per ton, and inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, etc., as well as the profit of blast furnaces and electric - arc furnaces for rebar, reflecting the profit and inventory status of the steel industry [79][81][91] 4. Cost End - Charts are provided to show the ratios of rebar to iron ore and coke futures, daily average production of hot metal and crude steel, prices of billets, scrap steel, etc., as well as the consumption and cumulative consumption of scrap steel, reflecting the cost - related factors in the steel production process [110][113][116] 5. Supply End - Charts show the production, production capacity utilization rate, and cumulative year - on - year production of rebar and hot - rolled coils, reflecting the supply - side situation of the steel industry [132][135][138] 6. Demand and Import - Export - Charts show the apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as the production and export volume of home appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners, and the import and export volume of steel products including rebar, plates, etc., reflecting the demand and import - export situation of the steel industry [144][147][149]