1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The steel price is expected to turn from weak to strong after the first ten - day period of March. Although the 4 - year - and - 10 - month decline cycle may be nearing its end, the later rebound path remains unclear, and investors or operators need to prepare for long - term market fluctuations [5][9][66]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - In February, the main 2605 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated lower and then the decline narrowed. On February 24, the 2605 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures reached new lows since July 2, 2025, and July 3, 2025, respectively, at 3005 yuan/ton and 3181 yuan/ton, and then rebounded slightly. As of February 27, the 2605 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell 61 yuan/ton (1.95%) and 73 yuan/ton (2.22%) respectively from the closing price on January 30 [18][19][22]. - In February, the premium of hot - rolled coil over rebar first widened and then significantly narrowed. The premium narrowed from 160 yuan/ton at the end of January to 148 yuan/ton at the end of February [23][24]. 3.2 Analysis of Main Influencing Factors - **Inventory**: From January 30 to February 27, the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities increased from 326.40 tons to 567.76 tons, a gain of 241.36 tons or 73.9%. The social inventory of hot - rolled coil in 33 cities increased from 278.33 tons to 357.37 tons, a gain of 79.04 tons or 28.4%. The main reason is that the seasonal demand for rebar accelerated to shrink in February while the decline in rebar production was not large, the production of hot - rolled coil was relatively stable, and the decline in hot - rolled coil demand was limited [26]. - **Production and Consumption**: Since the end of January, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide has continued to rise. The average daily output of crude steel of large and medium - sized steel mills in the first and middle ten - day periods of February first decreased and then increased compared with the same period in January, reaching a new high since mid - October last year. Since the end of January, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products nationwide has significantly accelerated its decline due to seasonal factors. Considering the recovery of demand and relatively low production, the steel price in March is expected to be weak first and then strong [28][31][39]. - **Output and Inventory of Specific Varieties**: As of the week of February 27, the weekly output of rebar from major steel mills in the past four weeks was 696.32 tons, a decrease of 84.4 tons or 10.81% compared with the previous four weeks. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil from major steel mills in the past four weeks was 1236.34 tons, an increase of 7.85 tons or 0.64% compared with the previous four weeks. As of February 27, the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major steel mills was 232.84 tons and 94.78 tons respectively, an increase of 83.71 tons (56.13%) and 17.53 tons (22.69%) respectively compared with January 30, indicating weak seasonal demand in the rebar and hot - rolled coil markets [40]. - **Profit**: In February (as of February 27), the spot profit of blast - furnace rebar continued to rise, the spot profit of electric - furnace construction steel showed a narrowing loss, the spot profit of hot - rolled coil turned from loss to profit, and the contract profit of rebar futures showed a narrowing loss after a brief expansion. The main reason is that although the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined, the spot price of iron ore continued to fall for the second month, and the spot price of coke was basically stable, resulting in an increase or turnaround in the spot profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil. In the futures market, the decline of steel futures was small, while iron ore and coke futures weakened significantly, leading to a narrowing of the overall loss of steel contract profits [47][51]. - **Downstream Demand**: Compared with January - November last year, the demand of the steel downstream industries in January - December last year showed different trends. The demand for construction steel such as rebar represented by real - estate development investment decreased for 10 consecutive months, the year - on - year decline in the demand for construction steel such as rebar represented by the new housing construction area turned to a slight narrowing, the growth rate of the demand for manufacturing machinery steel represented by the output of metal - cutting machine tools narrowed for 3 consecutive months from a high level, the growth rate of the demand for real - estate - related machinery steel represented by the output of excavators turned to a slight expansion, the growth rate of the demand for hot - rolled coil represented by automobile output narrowed for 2 consecutive months from a high level, and the growth rate of the demand for cold - rolled products represented by household appliance output mainly declined. In March, the seasonal demand for construction steel will recover significantly, and the demand for industrial plate steel will also rise. Considering the contradiction between low production and rising demand, the steel price is expected to rebound in March [52][62]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The news has a limited positive impact on the expected steel price. From the fundamental perspective, as time passes, the low steel production will eventually conflict with the warming of spring demand. It is expected that there will be an inflection point from weak to strong after the first ten - day period of March [63][66].