11月4日，钢材现货市场小幅下跌，期货市场主要品种主力全部下跌，其中螺纹、热卷跌超1%左右，铁 矿跌超1.7%，双焦跌2.5%左右。今日河南多地启动重污染天气橙色预警，焦炭第三轮提涨预计在11月5 日零点正式执行，对钢价有一定的支撑，明日钢价...... 一、多空因素分析 1.焦炭第三轮提涨将落地 唐山市场主流钢厂以及邢台、天津、石家庄地区部分钢厂计划对湿熄焦炭上调50元/吨、干熄焦炭上调 55元/吨，2025年11月5日零点执行。综合看，天津、唐山等地钢企接受焦炭第三轮提涨信息，对钢材成 本支撑较强，利好钢材价格走势。 2.中钢协：10月下旬钢材社会库存905万吨，环比下降3.3% 10月下旬，21个城市5大品种钢材社会库存 905万吨，环比减少31万吨，下降3.3%，库存继续小幅下降; 比年初增加246万吨，上升 37.3%;比上年同期增加 205 万吨，上升29.3%；目前看，短期库存下降但绝 对值仍处历史高位，叠加需求疲软和供给压力，钢价反弹动力不足，整体仍承压。 3．河南多地启动重污染天气橙色预警响应 据河南省生态环境监测和安全中心预测，受不利气象条件影响，11月4日起，河南部分地区可能出现中 度至 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price fluctuations of steel futures will increase due to the seasonal improvement in steel demand and the strong spot prices of raw materials like iron ore and coke, but the uncertainty of trade conflicts has sharply increased. The secondary rebound of steel prices in the future market will be more volatile. It is expected to trade with a relatively controllable shock logic on October 13th, and the decline caused by the realization of risks is unclear. There will be a restorative rebound near the end of the month. Attention should be paid to whether the Sino - US trade war will escalate again, the internal profit trend of the industrial chain after steel profits reach the break - even point again, and whether the iron ore supply gap worried by the market will appear in the spot market [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Review** - On October 15th, the main contracts 2601 of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated and declined, hitting new lows since July 3rd and July 11th respectively in the afternoon. The prices of some rebar and hot - rolled coil in the spot market also fell. The daily KDJ indicators of rebar and hot - rolled coil 2601 contracts continued to decline, and the daily MACD green columns continued to expand [5][6][8]. - The table shows the price, trading volume, and position of steel futures main contracts on October 15th, as well as the position of black - series futures. For example, the closing price of RB2601 was 3034 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.85%, and the trading volume was 1,018,136 lots [5][7]. - **Future Outlook** - In terms of news, after China's counter - measures, the US authorities first threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China and then lowered the expectation and tone of the Sino - US trade conflict. There are also unconfirmed news about the procurement of imported iron ore from BHP. The follow - up rebound of iron ore futures depends on the result of the game between the two sides and the real recovery of steel terminal demand [9][10]. - Fundamentally, the weekly output of the five major steel products in the past six weeks has declined compared with late August but remains at a relatively high level. After the demand reached a new high since early June in the week of October 3rd, it significantly shrank last week due to the long holiday, and the social inventory of the five major steel products reached a new high since mid - April. In the raw material market, the iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills and the imported ore sinter powder inventory of 64 sample steel mills have significantly declined. The shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore has increased, and the arrival volume has also increased significantly. The profit per ton of coke has turned positive after three consecutive weeks of losses, and the first round of spot price increase of coke was implemented on October 1st [10][11]. 3.2 Industry News - Premier Li Qiang chaired an economic situation symposium, emphasizing the implementation of more proactive and effective macro - policies to promote economic recovery, and proposed measures such as expanding domestic demand and building a first - class industrial ecosystem [12]. - In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) showed that the year - on - year decline narrowed, and some industries' prices showed positive changes. For example, the price decline of coal processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries narrowed [13]. - According to statistics, in September 2025, the sales volume of various excavators increased by 25.4% year - on - year. From January to September, the total sales volume increased by 18.1% year - on - year [13]. - Hebei Province issued measures to support key industries' environmental performance to reach level A, and steel industry leading enterprises may not reduce crude steel production or reduce the reduction ratio [13]. - Shanxi Coking Coal Group and Hunan Iron and Steel Group held a symposium to strengthen cooperation in the "coal - steel - coke" industry chain [13]. - Some companies released production and sales data. For example, Lu'an Huaneng's coal production in September 2025 increased by 6.06% year - on - year, and Zhonglv Electric's power generation in the third quarter increased by 86.46% year - on - year [14]. - The first coal - to - natural - gas project in Northeast China achieved a breakthrough, and the first - phase project was fully connected [14]. - The freight volume of Tongjiang Railway Port exceeded 5 million tons 46 days earlier than last year, with significant increases in coal and iron ore imports [14]. - China's Ministry of Commerce responded to the US 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding industry, and relevant Chinese departments will launch investigations and include some enterprises in the counter - measure list [14]. - BHP will settle 30% of the amount in RMB in iron ore spot transactions with China starting from the fourth quarter of 2025, and will initiate long - term contract negotiations in RMB if the market acceptance of the Chinese RMB iron ore index reaches the standard [15]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised the forecast of global economic growth rate for this year to 3.2%, and maintained the forecast of China's economic growth rate at 4.8% this year [15]. 3.3 Data Overview - There are multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output and inventory of the five major steel products, the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities, the blast furnace and electric furnace start - up rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and January contracts. The data sources are mainly Mysteel and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [17][18][21][28][32][36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Both rebar and hot-rolled coil are facing a combination of weak current situations and weakening expectations, and steel prices may experience a slight correction [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3,083 yuan/ton and 3,261 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of -24 yuan/ton (-0.77%) and -29 yuan/ton (-0.88%). The trading volumes were 1,231,858 hands and 557,390 hands, and the open interests were 1,952,748 hands and 1,422,524 hands, with increases of 26,595 hands and 24,873 hands respectively [1] - **Spot Price Data**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton; hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton; the price of Tangshan steel billet decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of RB2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2601 decreased by 6 yuan/ton. The spread of RB2601 - RB2605 remained unchanged, the spread of HC2601 - HC2605 increased by 50, the spread of HC2601 - RB2601 decreased by 4, the spread of HC2605 - RB2605 increased by 2, and the spot coil - rebar spread decreased by 10 [1] Macro and Industry News - In October 2025, the US announced export controls on relevant items such as rare earths from China, imposing a 100% tariff and implementing export controls on all key software [1][3] - In August 2025, China's steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a 3.3% month - on - month decrease, with an average export price of $698.0/ton, basically unchanged from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a 9.8% year - on - year increase, with an average export price of $699.1/ton, a 10.1% year - on - year decrease. In August, China's steel imports were 50,000 tons, a 10.4% month - on - month increase, and the average import price was $1,653.0/ton, an 8.4% month - on - month decrease. From January to August, the cumulative steel imports were 3.977 million tons, a 14.1% year - on - year decrease, with an average import price of $1,697.7/ton, a 1.5% year - on - year increase [3] - According to the weekly data of Steel Union on October 8, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 36,200 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 14,000 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 37,600 tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar increased by 239,600 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 299,200 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 692,300 tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar decreased by 950,600 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 336,400 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 1.6937 million tons [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar is 0, and that of hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Core Insights - In September, the spot price of wire rods experienced a slight decline, with the average price of HPB300 high line in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai regions at 3357.5 yuan/ton, down 0.59% from the beginning of the month [1] - The futures market shows a closing price of 3420.00 yuan/ton for the main wire rod futures contract on October 10, reflecting a 3.01% increase [2] - Steel inventory among key steel enterprises was reported at 14.67 million tons by late September, a decrease of 620,000 tons or 4.1% from the previous period [3] Price Trends - The average market price for HPB300 wire rods from Zhongtian and Yonggang in Hangzhou and Shanghai is around 3400-3410 yuan/ton [2] - The futures market indicates fluctuations with a daily trading volume of 446 contracts, showing a range between 3344.00 yuan/ton and 3435.00 yuan/ton [2] Market Analysis - According to Hualian Futures research, the inventory reduction during the peak season is slow, and market expectations for demand improvement remain weak, leading to significant supply-demand pressure post-holiday [4] - Despite the pressure, there is a strong cost support for steel prices and policy expectations that may provide a floor for prices, suggesting continued volatility in the market [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the overall market will maintain a weak oscillation. Although downstream demand is expected to improve marginally and inventory is likely to decline, production will also increase. As the apparent demand is unlikely to meet the market's optimistic expectations, there is a significant risk that the high expectations will not be fulfilled. It is recommended to engage in short - term trading and sell high in the unilateral strategy, and consider short - selling the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar for the 10 - contract in the arbitrage strategy [81][92]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Main Views - **Supply**: Due to good production profits, the overall steel output has changed little, remaining volatile in the past quarter. The output of the five major varieties has fluctuated between 8.5 million and 9 million tons per week, and the rebar output has remained around 2.2 million tons per week, while the hot - rolled coil output has recently declined. With the arrival of the consumption peak season and the end of the parade, the overall output is expected to rise [8][81]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar has increased month - on - month, while that for hot - rolled coil has decreased. The overall apparent demand for the five major varieties has rebounded. Recently, the apparent demand for plates has declined from a high level. Seasonally, with the end of the summer heat, the apparent demand is expected to recover, but it is still at a five - year low, similar to the same period last year. It is expected that there will be no significant year - on - year increase in demand [8][81]. - **Inventory**: The steel mill inventory has decreased briefly, while the social inventory has been rising. The inventory is being transferred from steel mills to downstream, indicating that steel mills are not optimistic about the future market. The total inventory of the five major varieties has rebounded and is close to last year's level. Currently, the inventory pressure is not high, and it is expected to continue to decline during the consumption peak season. However, inventory is not the main contradiction but a factor that triggers a negative feedback loop in prices [8][81]. - **Price and Market**: The previous price increase was mainly due to "anti - involution" trading, and the market is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. According to past rules, the demand expectations for the consumption peak season have been priced in the early - August prices. Although demand will improve in September, it still lags far behind the optimistic expectations at the previous price peak [8][81]. 2. Review of the Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil Futures and Spot Markets - In the past month, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have generally declined, with the decline of rebar being more significant and that of hot - rolled coil being smaller. The rebar basis has widened, mainly because the decline of futures prices is greater than that of spot prices. The hot - rolled coil basis has also widened slightly, indicating that hot - rolled coil has been relatively stronger than rebar recently. The spread between near - and far - month contracts of rebar has been falling and has entered a range where it is possible to go long on the spread between the 10 - and 01 - contracts. The spread between near - and far - month contracts of hot - rolled coil has remained fluctuating around zero. The spread of the 10 - contract between hot - rolled coil and rebar is high and may correct significantly in the future [12][15][23]. 3. Supply and Demand Analysis of Steel - **Supply**: The decline in production in July was mainly due to the off - season of downstream consumption in summer, when steel mills actively reduced production. The crude steel output has gradually recovered to a high level in the same period. The weekly output of steel has increased slightly month - on - month. The output of rebar and hot - rolled coil has both increased recently, and the total output of the five major varieties has also risen. After the end of the parade - related production restrictions, the production recovery is expected to accelerate. The output of independent electric arc furnaces remains relatively high, with the output of independent electric arc furnace rebar at a multi - year peak, and the operating rate and capacity utilization rate both remaining high. The iron - water output is basically flat and remains at a relatively high level. After the end of the parade - related restrictions, the iron - water output is expected to continue to increase [41][49][66]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for building materials has improved month - on - month, while the demand for medium - thick plates has declined from a high level. The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil has both improved, but the total demand for rebar and the five major steel varieties is still at a five - year low. In July, steel exports rebounded month - on - month, and the export volume of steel billets increased significantly. The increase in exports is expected to be mainly driven by the high - speed growth of steel billet exports, and the trade war has not affected steel and steel billet exports [55][57][58]. - **Profit**: The decline in gross profit is mainly because the recent increase in the spot prices of coking coal and coke is significantly greater than that of rebar. After a brief profit recovery, the profits of short - process steel mills in various regions have declined [62][68]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of major steel products in steel mills has decreased month - on - month, with the rebar inventory in steel mills starting to decline and the inventory of other varieties continuing to increase, resulting in a slight decrease in the total steel mill inventory. The social inventory of major steel products has been increasing continuously, and the social inventory of hot - rolled coil has been rising rapidly. The rebar inventory and the total inventory of the five major varieties have increased rapidly, while the overall inventory of upstream steel mills has declined, indicating that upstream steel mills are not optimistic about future prices and are transferring inventory to downstream [70][73][75]. 4. Market Outlook and Investment Opportunity Analysis - **Market Outlook**: The Langer Steel PMI index shows short - term pressure. The price peak usually precedes the PMI index peak. The PMI index reflects industry demand and is similar to the trend of social inventory. From August to September each year, the PMI index reaches its peak and then declines, indicating that the market is actually weak when downstream consumption improves. Currently, the index has been at 49.8 for two consecutive months and below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. Historically, the probability of price decline is high in May, August, and September, and the probability of price increase is high in December, January, and July [82][84][88]. - **Investment Opportunities**: In the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to engage in short - term trading and sell high. In the arbitrage strategy, short - selling the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar for the 10 - contract can be considered. The ratio of rebar to iron ore is currently low and may rise in the future, presenting a good long - position opportunity. The ratio of rebar to coke has declined significantly and may continue to decline, but in the short term, there may be a rebound in the rebar/coke ratio [38][92].

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing diverse price trends across different varieties and regions, indicating a complex landscape where some players are thriving while others are struggling [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The medium plate market remains stable, with most regions showing no price movement, reflecting a balanced supply and demand situation [4] - In contrast, the hot-rolled coil market is seeing significant price increases in Chongqing, with a daily rise of 40 yuan/ton due to resource shortages [5] - The rebar market shows a clear north-south price disparity, with cities like Beijing and Chongqing experiencing price increases, while Guangzhou and Jinan see slight declines due to low-priced resources [6][8] Group 2: Market Signals - Resource shortages act as a catalyst for price increases, as evidenced by the surge in hot-rolled coil prices in Chongqing [6] - The strength of the futures market is boosting the spot market, particularly influencing the rise in Shanghai rebar prices [6] - The influx of low-priced resources is directly linked to the price declines in rebar in Jinan and Guangzhou [8] Group 3: Operational Recommendations - Steel traders face limited operational space, with opportunities primarily in markets like Chongqing where supply is tight [9] - End-users are advised to adopt a demand-driven purchasing strategy, avoiding panic buying or expectations of significant price drops in the short term [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar oscillated upwards with a daily increase of 2.32%, and the volume and open interest expanded. With both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory level, with few real - world contradictions. Coupled with the strong cost support from raw materials, it is expected that the rebar price will continue to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to domestic policies [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil strengthened, with a daily increase of 1.98%, and the volume and open interest expanded. Currently, both the supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened, and the fundamentals have weakened again. There is a slight inventory build - up, but the overall contradiction is not significant. The strong raw materials boost market sentiment. It is expected that the hot - rolled coil price will maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to overseas risks [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated weakly, with a daily decline of 1.11%. The volume increased while the open interest decreased. Currently, market sentiment has stabilized. Coupled with the suppression of high coking coal prices, the iron ore price has fallen from its high level. However, with supply being weak and demand being strong, the fundamentals of iron ore are still acceptable, and the short - term downward space is limited. It is expected that the iron ore price will continue to oscillate and consolidate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, the national general public budget expenditure was 1.41271 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The expenditure on social security and employment increased by 9.2% year - on - year, science and technology expenditure increased by 9.1% year - on - year, education expenditure increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and health expenditure increased by 4.3% year - on - year. The national general public budget revenue was 1.15566 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. National tax revenue was 929.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.2%, and non - tax revenue was 226.51 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7% [6]. - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - ins. The "Two New" policy system and working mechanism are continuously improving. The State Council has issued an action plan, and the National Development and Reform Commission has issued support measures and expansion policies, and established an inter - ministerial joint meeting system [7]. - In the second quarter of 2025, FMG's iron ore production was 5.44 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The annual production in fiscal year 2025 reached 201 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The shipping volume in the second quarter was 5.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3%. The annual shipping volume in fiscal year 2025 reached 198 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The shipping target for fiscal year 2026 is 195 - 205 million tons [8]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,400 yuan, 3,360 yuan, and 3,463 yuan respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,470 yuan, 3,440 yuan, and 3,514 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,130 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,140 yuan. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 70 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,260 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 784 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 748 yuan. The ocean freight from Australia was 10.40 yuan, and from Brazil was 24.18 yuan. The SGX swap price (current month) was 100.01 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 104.50 yuan [9]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease (%) | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,356 | 2.32 | 3,358 | 3,288 | 2,878,137 | 344,884 | 1,998,652 | 92,300 | | Hot - rolled Coil | - | 3,507 | 1.98 | 3,508 | 3,452 | 995,111 | 142,246 | 1,554,563 | 46,781 | | Iron Ore | - | 802.5 | - 1.11 | 815.5 | 790.0 | 533,058 | 134,404 | 528,991 | - 33,844 | [11] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report presents various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil (steel mills + social inventory), national 45 - port iron ore inventories, 247 - steel mill iron ore inventories, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventories [13][14][16]. - Charts on steel mill production conditions are also included, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [27][29][32]. 3.5后市研判 - Rebar: Supply has increased with a weekly output increase of 2.90 tons, and there is room for further increase. Demand has improved with a weekly apparent demand increase of 10.41 tons, mainly due to speculative demand. However, both supply and demand are still at low levels in recent years, and the sustainability of demand improvement is weak. With low inventory and strong raw material cost support, the rebar price is expected to continue to operate at a high level. Attention should be paid to policy changes [35]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output has decreased by 3.65 tons, and the weekly apparent demand has decreased by 8.55 tons. Although high - frequency trading is good due to speculative demand, and downstream cold - rolled production is high, the narrowing internal - external price spread and potential tariff disturbances may lead to overseas demand risks. The price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to overseas risks [36]. - Iron Ore: The terminal consumption of iron ore has declined slightly, but the demand is still resilient due to the good profitability of steel mills. The arrival at domestic ports has decreased, and the short - term overseas supply is low. However, the shipping of overseas miners is increasing, and the domestic supply is also stable with a slight increase. With stable market sentiment and the suppression of high coking coal prices, the iron ore price has fallen from its high level. It is expected to continue to oscillate and consolidate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners [37].

Group 1 - The domestic steel price index slightly decreased during the week of June 23-27, with both long and flat steel price indices declining, and the drop in long steel prices being greater than that of flat steel prices [1] - The China Steel Price Index (CSPI) was 89.51 points, down 0.59 points week-on-week, a decrease of 0.65%; it fell by 1.29 points compared to the end of last month, a decline of 1.42%; and it decreased by 7.96 points since the end of last year, a drop of 8.17% [1] - The long steel price index was 91.27 points, down 0.73 points week-on-week, a decrease of 0.79%; it fell by 1.03 points compared to the end of last month, a decline of 1.12%; and it decreased by 8.95 points since the end of last year, a drop of 8.93% [1] Group 2 - All six major regions in China saw a week-on-week decline in steel price indices, with the Southwest region experiencing the largest drop and the North China and Northeast regions the smallest [2] - The North China steel price index was 88.50 points, down 0.49 points week-on-week, a decrease of 0.55%; it also fell by 13.76 points year-on-year, a decline of 13.46% [2] - The Southwest region's steel price index was 90.08 points, down 0.79 points week-on-week, a decrease of 0.87%; it decreased by 12.50 points year-on-year, a drop of 12.19% [2] Group 3 - All eight major steel product prices decreased compared to the end of last month, with the largest drop in cold-rolled sheets and the smallest in angle steel [3] - The price of 6mm high-line steel was 3243 CNY/ton, down 32 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.98%; the price of 16mm rebar was 3051 CNY/ton, down 31 CNY/ton, a decline of 1.01% [3] - The price of 1mm cold-rolled sheets was 3721 CNY/ton, down 95 CNY/ton, a decrease of 2.49% [3] Group 4 - In May, the average import price of iron ore was 96.24 USD/ton, down 1.86 USD/ton, a decline of 1.90%; it also fell by 9.56 USD/ton year-on-year, a drop of 9.04% [4] - The domestic iron concentrate price was 843 CNY/ton, down 45 CNY/ton, a decrease of 5.07%; it decreased by 100 CNY/ton year-on-year, a drop of 10.60% [4] - Coking coal price was 1189 CNY/ton, down 89 CNY/ton, a decline of 6.96%; it fell by 731 CNY/ton year-on-year, a drop of 38.08% [4] Group 5 - In June, the CRU international steel price index was 188.1 points, down 7.0 points, a decline of 3.6%; it increased by 7.5 points since the end of last year, a rise of 4.2% [5] - The CRU long steel price index was 194.2 points, down 1.4 points, a decrease of 0.7%; it fell by 10.9 points year-on-year, a drop of 5.3% [5] - The North American steel price index was 235.1 points, down 9.9 points, a decline of 4.0%; it increased by 9.3 points year-on-year, a rise of 4.1% [5] Group 6 - The China steel price index fell below 90 points, influenced by seasonal demand fluctuations due to weather conditions affecting construction progress [6] - Supply slightly increased in the latest reporting period, while raw material prices decreased, reducing support for steel prices [6] - Overall, steel prices are expected to remain weak and fluctuate in the short term due to seasonal effects [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the steel market in the second half of the year will be influenced by multiple factors, with prices expected to initially decline before rising [1] - Domestic demand for steel is heavily reliant on policy support, with a projected decline in demand for construction steel, although urban renewal may offset some of the decrease [1] - Infrastructure steel demand may improve on a month-on-month basis, but lacks significant growth potential [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector is showing weakness in certain areas, requiring support from "two new" policies [1] - Direct exports are expected to remain high, but are unlikely to drive steel prices significantly [1] - Supply-side production is anticipated to fluctuate slightly, with ongoing reductions in crude steel production causing disruptions [1] Group 3 - Iron ore supply pressure is easing, with a projected increase of approximately 13.7 million tons in global iron ore shipments by 2025, while annual foreign ore arrivals are expected to decrease by 15 to 20 million tons year-on-year [1] - Under optimistic assumptions, average molten iron production is expected to be 2.39 million tons per day in Q3, decreasing to 2.28 million tons per day in Q4 [1] - Under pessimistic assumptions, crude steel production may be reduced by 10 to 20 million tons in Q4, leading to significant inventory pressure [1] Group 4 - Recommendations suggest seizing rebound opportunities in undervalued areas while paying attention to the downward pressure from crude steel reduction policies [1] - Risk factors include potential negative impacts from tariffs on exports and strict enforcement of crude steel reduction policies [1] - The demand outlook for coke is not optimistic, with no significant downward expectations for molten iron in the short term, but long-term demand for finished products remains under pressure [1] Group 5 - Coking coal mines are still profitable, but supply pressures persist, with short-term demand for molten iron supported by basic needs [1] - High levels of imports are stable, but price pressures exist, necessitating attention to coal mine safety regulations [1] - The cost of silicon manganese continues to exert pressure, with production control becoming increasingly difficult [1] Group 6 - The difficulty of destocking silicon iron is increasing, with challenges in inventory digestion as steel production declines [1] - The destocking process may accelerate during the peak season, with potential for valuation recovery, although the extent of rebound is limited [1] - Attention is required on production control measures from manufacturers [1]

Group 1: Steel Price Trends - Since April, steel prices have been operating at low levels, with a focus on fundamental logic as the "tariff war" with the U.S. eases, but prices remain under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand [1] - The steel price outlook is expected to be neutral to slightly bearish in the short to medium term, primarily due to the ongoing supply-demand imbalance [7] Group 2: Real Estate Market Impact - The real estate market shows signs of improvement, but its support for construction steel prices is limited, with national real estate development investment in the first quarter at approximately 1.99 trillion yuan, down 9.9% year-on-year [2] - New housing starts and completions have seen significant declines, with new starts down 24.4% and completions down 14.3% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure on steel prices from the construction sector [3] Group 3: Export Dynamics - In March, China exported 10.46 million tons of steel, with cumulative exports from January to March at 27.43 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, while imports decreased by 11.3% [4] - The price advantage of Chinese steel and declining overseas crude steel production are contributing to continued export growth, although future exports may face pressure from rising international trade protectionism [4] Group 4: Production and Profitability - In March, China's crude steel production reached 92.84 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with a high operating rate of 84.33% among steel mills, indicating strong production activity despite low prices [5] - Steel mills are experiencing improved profitability, which reduces the likelihood of voluntary production cuts, although some mills in Xinjiang have announced production reductions [5][6] Group 5: Product-Specific Trends - In March, rebar production was 18.61 million tons, up 5.6% year-on-year, while the production of medium and heavy wide steel plates increased by 8.5% [7] - The production adjustments between rebar and hot-rolled coils are expected to become more flexible in the coming months, influenced by export conditions [7]