1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The news has a significant positive impact on the expected cost and price of steel. Fundamentally, as time passes, the low steel production will conflict with the warming spring demand. It is expected that the steel price will fluctuate and strengthen in the future, but further increase still depends on the demand side. Investors or operators need to prepare for a long - term volatile market, especially pay attention to the development of the BHP event and the changes in the Middle East situation [10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Futures Market - On March 18, the main contracts 2605 of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose first and then fell, closing with all intraday gains erased and even lower than the previous day's closing price. They reached new highs since February 2 and January 20 respectively during the session [7] - The trading data of the main steel futures contracts on March 18 are as follows: for RB2605, the closing price was 3140 yuan/ton, down 0.10%; the trading volume was 860,500 lots, and the open interest decreased by 34,623 lots with a capital outflow of 0.85 billion yuan. For HC2605, the closing price was 3310 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the trading volume was 358,351 lots, and the open interest decreased by 7,990 lots with a capital outflow of 0.21 billion yuan. For SS2605, the closing price was 14020 yuan/ton, down 0.92%; the trading volume was 96,445 lots, and the open interest increased by 2,205 lots with a capital inflow of 0.16 billion yuan [5] - The long - short positions of the top 20 in the black - series futures on March 18: for RB2605, the long - short difference was - 20,832 lots with a deviation of - 2.18%; for HC2605, the long - short difference was 2,948 lots with a deviation of 0.35%; for SS2605, the long - short difference was - 560 lots with a deviation of - 0.65% [8] 3.1.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On March 18, some rebar and most hot - rolled coil spot market prices rose. Rebar prices in Nanjing and Xi'an rose by 20 yuan/ton, and in other cities such as Nanchang and Tianjin rose by 10 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil prices in Chongqing and Chengdu rose by 50 yuan/ton and 30 yuan/ton respectively, and in other cities rose by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [9] - The daily KDJ indicators of rebar and hot - rolled coil 2605 contracts showed a divergent trend, with the J and K values turning down and the D value continuing to rise slightly. The KDJ indicator of rebar showed a potential dead - cross trend. The daily MACD red bars of both contracts narrowed [9] 3.1.3 Future Outlook - News: In March 2026, China further expanded the import restrictions on BHP's iron ore, fully suspending the procurement of core products such as Mac Fines and Newman Fines/Block, which led to a significant increase in iron ore prices [10] - Fundamentals: The weekly output of the five major steel products rebounded to a new high since early February, the inventory accumulation speed slowed down significantly, and the weekly demand has been rising for two consecutive weeks to a new high since early February [10] - Raw materials: After the Spring Festival, the port iron ore inventory rebounded and reached a record high since December 2015, with about 20 million tons from BHP's locked - in inventory. The steel mills' iron ore inventory has remained at a 23 - day availability level for three weeks. The shipment volume of imported iron ore in the past four weeks increased by 13.3% month - on - month, and the arrival volume decreased by 6.6% month - on - month, and it is expected to recover in the future. From March 9 to 14, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume increased slightly compared with the previous week, with an average increase of only 0.8%, generally remaining at a relatively high level of 175,000 - 196,000 tons. The coking coal inventories of steel mills and coking plants have rebounded slightly after reaching new lows since late June and late July last year respectively [10] 3.2 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission launched a new batch of 13 landmark major foreign - funded projects with a planned investment of $13.4 billion, mainly in manufacturing and service industries, and the cumulative investment of such projects has reached $108 billion [12] - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized that central enterprises should continue to play a stabilizing role in the national economy, formulate scientific business goals, expand development space, and increase effective investment [12] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized consolidating the stable and positive trend of the industrial economy, implementing the new round of the ten - key - industry stable - growth plan, and starting the "15th Five - Year Plan" major projects [12] - From January to February 2026, the total raw coal output of the top 10 enterprises was 390 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.83 million tons, accounting for 51.3% of the above - scale industrial raw coal output [13] - In 2025, the operating income of CITIC Special Steel was 107.373 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.68% [13] - On March 11, a ship carrying high - grade iron ore from Simandou docked at WISCO's industrial port [13] - From January to February, key steel enterprises produced 131.62 million tons of crude steel (a year - on - year decrease of 5%), 118.74 million tons of pig iron (a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%), and 129.58 million tons of steel (a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%) [13] - In early March, the output of key coal - monitoring enterprises was 64.44 million tons, with a daily average of 6.44 million tons, a 6.3% increase from late February and a 1.4% increase year - on - year [13] - The natural gas consumption during the heating season from last winter to this spring was 180 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of over 2% [13] - On March 17, the Baotailong Donghui Coal Mine project started, with a total investment of 3.007 billion yuan, a designed production capacity of 1.8 million tons/year, and a service life of 52.7 years [13] - In February 2026, China exported 4.63 million tons of steel plates (a year - on - year decrease of 12.6%), and 9.33 million tons from January to February (a year - on - year decrease of 14.5%); exported 1.19 million tons of steel bars (a year - on - year decrease of 7.7%), and 2.32 million tons from January to February (a year - on - year decrease of 5.9%) [13] - In the first two months of this year, the import and export freight volume of Ganqimaodu Port reached 8.025 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.2%, and the import and export value reached 13.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 88% [13] - On March 17, Spain approved the release of up to 11.5 million barrels of oil reserves in 90 days to deal with the oil supply shortage [14] - An Indonesian coal mining company, PTBA, received approval for its 2026 coal production plan with a maximum annual production of 53.2 million tons [14] - In February, Japan's purchase of US oil increased by 1587.1% year - on - year [14] - India is expected to have a peak power demand of 271,000 MW this summer, and the government plans to require some imported - coal - fired power plants to operate at full capacity [14] - Since the US - Iran conflict, US diesel prices have soared 34%, reaching $5.04 per gallon on March 17 [14] - The tense situation in the Middle East has led to a serious shortage of LPG in India, and the government is taking measures to ensure supply [14] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output and steel mill inventory of the five major steel products, the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average hot metal output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and May contracts [16][18][21][28][29][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The steel price is expected to turn from weak to strong after the first ten - day period of March. Although the 4 - year - and - 10 - month decline cycle may be nearing its end, the later rebound path remains unclear, and investors or operators need to prepare for long - term market fluctuations [5][9][66]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - In February, the main 2605 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated lower and then the decline narrowed. On February 24, the 2605 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures reached new lows since July 2, 2025, and July 3, 2025, respectively, at 3005 yuan/ton and 3181 yuan/ton, and then rebounded slightly. As of February 27, the 2605 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell 61 yuan/ton (1.95%) and 73 yuan/ton (2.22%) respectively from the closing price on January 30 [18][19][22]. - In February, the premium of hot - rolled coil over rebar first widened and then significantly narrowed. The premium narrowed from 160 yuan/ton at the end of January to 148 yuan/ton at the end of February [23][24]. 3.2 Analysis of Main Influencing Factors - **Inventory**: From January 30 to February 27, the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities increased from 326.40 tons to 567.76 tons, a gain of 241.36 tons or 73.9%. The social inventory of hot - rolled coil in 33 cities increased from 278.33 tons to 357.37 tons, a gain of 79.04 tons or 28.4%. The main reason is that the seasonal demand for rebar accelerated to shrink in February while the decline in rebar production was not large, the production of hot - rolled coil was relatively stable, and the decline in hot - rolled coil demand was limited [26]. - **Production and Consumption**: Since the end of January, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide has continued to rise. The average daily output of crude steel of large and medium - sized steel mills in the first and middle ten - day periods of February first decreased and then increased compared with the same period in January, reaching a new high since mid - October last year. Since the end of January, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products nationwide has significantly accelerated its decline due to seasonal factors. Considering the recovery of demand and relatively low production, the steel price in March is expected to be weak first and then strong [28][31][39]. - **Output and Inventory of Specific Varieties**: As of the week of February 27, the weekly output of rebar from major steel mills in the past four weeks was 696.32 tons, a decrease of 84.4 tons or 10.81% compared with the previous four weeks. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil from major steel mills in the past four weeks was 1236.34 tons, an increase of 7.85 tons or 0.64% compared with the previous four weeks. As of February 27, the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major steel mills was 232.84 tons and 94.78 tons respectively, an increase of 83.71 tons (56.13%) and 17.53 tons (22.69%) respectively compared with January 30, indicating weak seasonal demand in the rebar and hot - rolled coil markets [40]. - **Profit**: In February (as of February 27), the spot profit of blast - furnace rebar continued to rise, the spot profit of electric - furnace construction steel showed a narrowing loss, the spot profit of hot - rolled coil turned from loss to profit, and the contract profit of rebar futures showed a narrowing loss after a brief expansion. The main reason is that although the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined, the spot price of iron ore continued to fall for the second month, and the spot price of coke was basically stable, resulting in an increase or turnaround in the spot profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil. In the futures market, the decline of steel futures was small, while iron ore and coke futures weakened significantly, leading to a narrowing of the overall loss of steel contract profits [47][51]. - **Downstream Demand**: Compared with January - November last year, the demand of the steel downstream industries in January - December last year showed different trends. The demand for construction steel such as rebar represented by real - estate development investment decreased for 10 consecutive months, the year - on - year decline in the demand for construction steel such as rebar represented by the new housing construction area turned to a slight narrowing, the growth rate of the demand for manufacturing machinery steel represented by the output of metal - cutting machine tools narrowed for 3 consecutive months from a high level, the growth rate of the demand for real - estate - related machinery steel represented by the output of excavators turned to a slight expansion, the growth rate of the demand for hot - rolled coil represented by automobile output narrowed for 2 consecutive months from a high level, and the growth rate of the demand for cold - rolled products represented by household appliance output mainly declined. In March, the seasonal demand for construction steel will recover significantly, and the demand for industrial plate steel will also rise. Considering the contradiction between low production and rising demand, the steel price is expected to rebound in March [52][62]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The news has a limited positive impact on the expected steel price. From the fundamental perspective, as time passes, the low steel production will eventually conflict with the warming of spring demand. It is expected that there will be an inflection point from weak to strong after the first ten - day period of March [63][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The 4th Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held in Beijing on March 4, 2026. Shanghai has issued the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" to further reduce housing purchase restrictions, adjusting the social insurance or individual income tax payment period for non - local residents or single adults to buy housing within the outer ring to 1 year or more before the purchase date [2]. - Last week, the production of rebar was 165,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons month - on - month; the apparent demand was 81,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons; the factory inventory was 233,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons; the social inventory was 568,000 tons, an increase of 73,000 tons; the total inventory was 801,000 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons. The production of hot - rolled coils was 310,000 tons, remaining the same month - on - month; the factory inventory was 95,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons; the social inventory was 357,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons; the total inventory was 452,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons; the apparent demand was 291,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons [2][6]. - Overall, last week's industrial data of the steel industry was average. The steel production decreased month - on - month, the post - holiday resumption of production was slow, the apparent demand recovered steadily, and the inventory continued to accumulate. It is expected that the post - holiday inventory inflection point will appear in about four weeks. With the approaching of the Two Sessions, the supply in the north is kept at a low level due to production restrictions, and the demand is expected to continue to rise. Supported by short - term expectations, the steel price is expected to stabilize with fluctuations [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (lots) | Total Open Interest (lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3067 | 12 | 0.39 | 3706677 | 2580465 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3215 | - 7 | - 0.22 | 1494469 | 1492800 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 750.5 | 4.5 | 0.60 | 863039 | 540573 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1093.5 | - 27.5 | - 2.45 | 3008084 | 721319 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1635.5 | - 46.5 | - 2.76 | 70334 | 42455 | Yuan/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures rebounded with fluctuations. The new housing policy in Shanghai boosted market sentiment. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2910 (+10) Yuan/ton, the price of Shanghai rebar was 3200 (-20) Yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3240 (0) Yuan/ton [5]. - The macro situation includes the upcoming 4th Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, the announcement of the first batch of enterprises meeting the "Steel Industry Specification Conditions (2025 Edition)" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" for housing purchase restrictions [5]. - The industrial situation shows that the steel production decreased month - on - month, the post - holiday resumption of production was slow, the apparent demand recovered steadily, and the inventory continued to accumulate. It is expected that the post - holiday inventory inflection point will appear in about four weeks. With the approaching of the Two Sessions, the supply in the north is kept at a low level due to production restrictions, and the demand is expected to continue to rise. Supported by short - term expectations, the steel price is expected to stabilize with fluctuations [6]. 3.3 Industry News - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is closely monitoring and will comprehensively evaluate the US tariff adjustment measures, and will decide on counter - measures against the US fentanyl - related tariffs and reciprocal tariffs. China is willing to have frank consultations with the US in the 6th round of China - US economic and trade consultations [7][8]. - On February 25, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the first batch of enterprises meeting the "Steel Industry Specification Conditions (2025 Edition)" [11]. - Some steel enterprises in North China have received a notice of temporary voluntary emission reduction, requiring them to implement phased emission reduction control from March 4 to March 11, with the blast furnace load voluntarily reduced by no less than 30% [11]. - On February 25, Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" to further reduce housing purchase restrictions [11]. - In the first month of the implementation of the steel export license policy, the market is experiencing "short - term pain" to seek a balance under the new rules. Affected by the new policy, the steel export volume in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to decline by 15% - 20% compared with 27.42 million tons in the first quarter of 2025 [11]. - On March 1, local time, US President Trump said that the military action against Iran may last about four weeks. The leaders of the UK, France, and Germany issued a joint statement, indicating that they may take "necessary defensive actions" against Iran [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the futures and monthly spread trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the basis trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the spot regional price difference trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the smelting profits of long - process steel mills, the profits of short - process electric furnaces in East China, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide, the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills, the production, inventory, and apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils, and the seasonal charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil monthly spreads and volume - rebar spreads [10][12][14][16][18][20][23][26][28][33][34][36][37][41][43][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price is under pressure and weak in the short - term due to the significant inventory build - up during the holiday, with production and demand of rebar both decreasing (demand dropping more significantly), and the demand for hot - rolled coils also falling while production remains stable. In the medium - term, the steel price is expected to first fall and then rise [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In the last week before the holiday, the spot market was inactive with most quotes stable. The fundamentals showed seasonal inventory build - up, demand gradually stagnated, futures funds were eager to leave the market, prices declined overall, and the basis widened [9]. - Specific price and inventory data: For example, the price of rebar HRB400E 20MM in Shanghai was 3220 yuan/ton with no change; the price of imported iron ore (PB powder 61.5%, Australia) at Qingdao Port decreased by 11 yuan/wet ton to 756 yuan/wet ton. Rebar total inventory increased by 129 tons to 716.04 tons, and hot - rolled coil total inventory increased by 63 tons to 433.85 tons [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - Rebar weekly production was 170.38 tons (a 4.08% decrease from the previous week and a 4.29% increase year - on - year), and the national hot - rolled coil weekly production was 309.81 tons (a 0.67% increase from the previous week and a 5.50% decrease year - on - year) [3][15]. - Rebar blast furnace production increased while electric furnace production decreased. Blast furnace weekly production was 167.78 tons (a 3.85% increase from the previous week and a 3.94% decrease year - on - year), and electric furnace weekly production was 2.6 tons (a 65.79% decrease from the previous week and an 88.31% decrease year - on - year) [16][18]. - The blast furnace operating rate increased slightly, while the electric furnace operating rate during the holiday dropped significantly. The national blast furnace operating rate was 80.13% (a 0.75% increase from the previous week and a 2.76% increase year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 9.85% (a 65.15% decrease from the previous week and an 81.57% decrease year - on - year) [19][23]. - The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils were slightly repaired. Rebar profit was + 80 yuan/ton (a 15 - yuan increase from the previous week and a 15 - yuan decrease year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was + 11 yuan/ton (a 9 - yuan increase from the previous week and a 4 - yuan decrease year - on - year) [24][26]. Demand - The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils dropped significantly during the holiday. Rebar apparent consumption was 41.16 tons (a 59.61% decrease from the previous week and a 75.59% decrease year - on - year), the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 3.49 tons (a 51.40% decrease from the previous week and a 68.52% decrease year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 246.73 tons (a 16.70% decrease from the previous week and a 23.58% decrease year - on - year) [31]. Inventory - Rebar inventory increased seasonally, with the increase in factory and social inventories expanding. Rebar factory inventory was 221.07 tons (a 35.14% increase from the previous week and a 7.73% decrease year - on - year), social inventory was 494.97 tons (a 16.95% increase from the previous week and an 18.90% decrease year - on - year), and total inventory was 716.04 tons (a 22.02% increase from the previous week and a 15.53% decrease year - on - year) [32][36]. - Hot - rolled coil inventory increased significantly, and social inventory was at a high level in the same period of history. Hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 93.38 tons (a 16.94% increase from the previous week and a 1.00% decrease year - on - year), social inventory was 340.47 tons (a 17.03% increase from the previous week and a 1.01% decrease year - on - year), and total inventory was 433.85 tons (a 17.01% increase from the previous week and a 0.17% decrease year - on - year) [37][40]. Downstream Industries - In the real estate industry, due to holiday factors, the transactions in the commercial housing and land markets decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis. The weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 92.46% week - on - week and 94.56% year - on - year, and the transaction land area in 100 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 99.33% week - on - week and 99.32% year - on - year [41][43]. - In the automotive industry, in January 2026, automobile production increased slightly year - on - year, while sales decreased year - on - year. Automobile production and sales were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively, with production increasing by 0.01% year - on - year and sales decreasing by 3.2% year - on - year. Among them, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.041 million and 0.945 million respectively, increasing by 2.5% and 0.1% year - on - year. In January, automobile exports were 681,000, a 44.9% increase year - on - year, and new - energy vehicle exports were 302,000, a 100% increase year - on - year [44][46]. 3.3 Spread Analysis - The basis of hot - rolled coils widened, and the 5 - 10 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coils widened slightly [48]. - The coil - to - rebar spread contracted slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread of iron ore contracted slightly [53].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic steel market in China is expected to experience a weak overall performance in 2025, characterized by a "倒N" shaped price trend, with prices showing a slight increase in December but a significant year-on-year decline [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In December 2025, the China Steel Price Index (CSPI) averaged 92.03 points, with a month-on-month increase of 0.56 points (0.61% rise) but a year-on-year decrease of 5.70 points (5.83% drop) [1]. - The CSPI for long products averaged 94.21 points in December, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.69 points (1.82% rise) and a year-on-year decrease of 6.04 points (6.03% drop) [1]. - The CSPI for flat products averaged 90.22 points in December, showing a slight month-on-month decrease of 0.07 points (0.07% drop) and a year-on-year decrease of 5.74 points (5.98% drop) [1]. Group 2: Annual Overview - The average CSPI for 2025 was 93.19 points, which represents a year-on-year decline of 9.28 points (9.05% drop) [2]. - In the first half of 2025, steel prices exhibited a continuous downward trend, with the index dropping below 90 points to 89.51 points by the end of June, marking the lowest level since November 2016 [2]. - The market saw a brief recovery in July due to expectations surrounding "反内卷" policies, but prices faced renewed pressure in August to October as demand recovery fell short of expectations, leading to further price declines [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the steel industry are weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The profitability of steel mills has increased, but with the deepening of the off - season, demand is expected to gradually weaken, and the upward driving force is limited [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1成材 (Finished Products) - **Supply**: Some steel mills carried out maintenance. The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills nationwide was 1.903 million tons (- 0.74 thousand tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 3.0836 million tons (+ 2.85 thousand tons) [4]. - **Demand**: Demand increased but was seasonally weak overall. The apparent demand for rebar last week was 1.9034 million tons (+ 15.38 thousand tons), and that for hot - rolled coils was 3.1416 million tons (+ 5.82 thousand tons) [4]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory decreased slightly, and hot - rolled coil inventory continued to decline but still faced pressure. Rebar total inventory was 4.3807 million tons (- 0.04 thousand tons), social inventory was 2.9541 million tons (+ 5.23 thousand tons), and steel mill inventory was 1.4266 million tons (- 5.27 thousand tons); hot - rolled total inventory was 3.6233 million tons (- 5.8 thousand tons), social inventory was 2.858 million tons (- 5.01 thousand tons), and steel mill inventory was 0.7653 million tons (- 0.79 thousand tons) [4]. - **Basis**: As of January 16, the basis of the rebar main contract was 137 yuan/ton (- 9 yuan/ton), and that of the hot - rolled main contract was - 15 yuan/ton (+ 9 yuan/ton) [4]. - **Summary**: The profitability rate of steel mills rose to 39.83%; the molten iron output was 2.2801 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14.9 thousand tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 78.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.47%, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56%; the electric furnace operating rate was 72.97%, unchanged from the previous week, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 57.99%, a week - on - week increase of 1.08% [4]. 3.2 Raw Materials - **Prices**: The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,470 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang was 1,426 yuan/ton (+ 23 yuan/ton), and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 819 yuan/ton (- 7 yuan/ton) [17]. 3.3 Steel Mill Operating Conditions - **Molten Iron Output and Blast Furnace Operating Rate**: Molten iron output declined, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly. As of January 16, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan was 90.77%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78% [20][30]. - **Profitability Rate**: The profitability rate of steel mills increased [24]. 3.4 Production - **Rebar**: As of January 16, rebar production decreased by 0.74 thousand tons week - on - week. In terms of process, long - process production decreased by 1.94 thousand tons week - on - week, and short - process production increased by 1.2 thousand tons week - on - week [35]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: Hot - rolled coil production increased by 2.85 thousand tons week - on - week [35]. 3.5 Demand - **Rebar**: As of January 16, the weekly average trading volume of rebar was 91.8 thousand tons [43]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: As of January 16, the weekly average trading volume of hot - rolled coils was 30.2 thousand tons. The downstream cold - rolled production was 886.7 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 thousand tons, and it was at a high level compared to the same period [48]. 3.6 Inventory - **Tangshan Billet**: As of January 16, the inventory of Tangshan billets was 521 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 97.7 thousand tons. The inventory of major steel products was 8.661 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.74 thousand tons [52]. - **Rebar**: Rebar inventory decreased slightly [54]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: Hot - rolled coil inventory continued to decline [59]. 3.7 Downstream Industries - **Steel Exports**: In November, steel exports were 9.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 197.8 thousand tons; from January to November, the cumulative steel export volume was 107.7 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.8303 million tons [64]. - **Automobile Industry**: In November, automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173.3 thousand vehicles; automobile sales were 3.429 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106.9 thousand tons. In November, new - energy vehicle production was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 108 thousand vehicles; new - energy vehicle sales were 1.823 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 108 thousand tons [68]. - **Real Estate Industry**: From January to December, national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year, with a decline of 1.3%. Specifically, from January to December, the cumulative new construction area of houses was 597.7 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%; the cumulative completion area of houses was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%. From January to December, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%. The sales amount of newly built commercial housing decreased by 12.6% year - on - year, with a decline of 1.5%. From January to December, the cumulative funds in place of development enterprises was 93.117 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.4% [72].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The news factor may cause the steel price to turn from strong to weak recently, but there is still support from the fundamentals. It is expected that the market will first decline and then rise, and the overall trend will be range - bound [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On December 30, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures 2605 generally rose first and then fell. The rebar futures contract RB2605 closed at 3134 yuan/ton, down 0.10%; the hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2605 closed at 3282 yuan/ton, down 0.33%; the stainless - steel futures contract SS2602 closed at 13090 yuan/ton, up 1.28% [5]. - In the spot market, on December 30, the prices of major rebar spot markets were basically stable, while the prices of individual hot - rolled coil spot markets fluctuated. The hot - rolled coil prices in Hefei and Fuzhou markets rose by 10 yuan/ton, and the price in Lecong market fell by 10 yuan/ton [7]. - In terms of technical indicators, the daily KDJ indicator of the rebar 2605 contract rose, with the J value turning up and the K and D values continuing to rise; the daily KDJ indicator of the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract formed a death cross. The daily MACD red column of the rebar 2605 contract slightly enlarged for two consecutive trading days, while that of the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract turned to a slight narrowing [7]. 3.2 Market Outlook - News: There are reports that JPMorgan Chase's long - position in silver exceeded regulatory requirements, leading to regulatory intervention. For JPMorgan Chase, taking profits may be the best option. The significant fluctuations in international silver prices have triggered resonance in related metal commodity markets [8]. - Fundamentals: The decline in the output of the five major steel products has significantly narrowed, and the demand has continued to decline slightly. Due to the weekly supply being less than demand, the social inventory has continued to decline to a new low since mid - January. On the cost side, the iron ore price has continued to rise to a new high since late February, while the fourth round of price cuts for coke spot is expected to be implemented on New Year's Day. Despite the one - up - one - down situation, the steel cost remains relatively firm [9]. 3.3 Industry News - On December 26, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment held a regular press conference, reporting on the implementation of the Action Plan for Source Prevention and Control of Soil Pollution, including pollutant reduction in key industries and infrastructure improvement [10]. - The Tariff Policy Commission of the State Council issued the 2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan, which will be implemented from January 1, 2026, including adjustments to import provisional tax rates and the addition of new sub - items [10]. - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade released the latest economic and trade friction index. In October, the amount involved in global economic and trade friction measures decreased by 7.3% year - on - year but remained at a high level [10]. - On December 26, the expert consultation meeting on the 14th Five - Year Plan for the steel industry was held in Beijing, emphasizing aspects such as减量 development, carbon peaking, standard setting, digital transformation, and product structure adjustment [10]. - On December 29, Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway stated that the expected increase in related transaction amounts in the next three years is due to the decline in coal transportation demand and the expansion of non - coal bulk markets [11]. - China Power signed a new coal supply framework agreement with Huainan Mining on December 29, 2025, with a supply period from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2028 [11]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Trade issued a regulation using the Indonesian coal benchmark price (HBA) as a basis for export reference prices, but the specific implementation time and mechanism of the export tariff policy remain to be determined [11]. - On December 26, Liugang Group's annual output of automotive steel exceeded one million tons, and the annual sales of container plates, die steel, and exported steel also reached one million tons [11]. - On December 26, Ganeng Co., Ltd. announced the transfer of 20% of its shares in Pingxiang Juyuan Coal Industry Co., Ltd. to Jiangxi Coal Industry Group Co., Ltd. at a price of 0 yuan [11]. - India's crude oil imports in November increased by 11.1% year - on - year, while petroleum product imports decreased by about 8.6% and exports decreased by 1.7% [11]. - India's coal imports in November 2025 were 19.2658 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.56% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.64%. From January to November, the total coal imports were 227 million tons, a 1.18% decrease from the previous year [11]. 3.4 Data Overview The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output and steel mill inventory of the five major steel products, the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and their May contracts. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14][17][24][32][33].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the steel market showed a relatively strong performance. Under the influence of macro - news speculation, the low - price situation improved slightly, but the actual demand was poor and the trading volume was average. Currently, steel mills are reducing production and the inventory pressure is not high, so they have a strong willingness to raise prices. In the short term, the contradiction between supply and demand is not significant, but due to lack of confidence, the price increase is under pressure [1]. - In the short term, with the fermentation of macro - sentiment and the rhythmic support of low - inventory destocking, the market price may fluctuate and tend to be strong. However, there are still important risk factors among the variables derived from time. It is recommended to focus on changes in market sentiment and the trend of raw fuels [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - The steel market was strong this week. Macro - news speculation improved the low - price situation, but actual demand was poor and trading was average. Steel mills' production cuts and low inventory pressure led to a strong willingness to raise prices. Short - term supply - demand contradictions are small, but price increases are pressured by lack of confidence [1]. - In the short term, the market price may fluctuate and strengthen due to macro - sentiment and low - inventory destocking support. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and raw fuel trends [1]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - Steel mill daily average hot metal production was 2.2655 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,500 tons (-1.16%). - Rebar steel mill inventory was 1.3954 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,600 tons (-0.89%). - Rebar social inventory was 3.13 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 257,000 tons (-7.59%). - Hot - rolled coil steel mill inventory was 0.8342 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,100 tons (-0.73%). - Hot - rolled coil social inventory was 3.073 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 57,600 tons (-1.84%) [3]. Futures Market Review The report provides multiple figures related to the futures market, including the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, rebar 01 - 05 spread, hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 spread, disk coil - rebar spread, and speculation degree (trading volume/position) [6][8]. Spot Market Review The report includes figures on the rebar price in East China (Shanghai), hot - rolled 4.75 spot price (Shanghai), rebar basis, and hot - rolled coil basis [12][13]. Fundamental Data The report presents figures on 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal production, rebar blast furnace profit, rebar supply - demand trend, hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend, rebar steel mill inventory seasonal analysis, rebar social inventory seasonal analysis, hot - rolled coil steel mill inventory seasonal analysis, and hot - rolled coil social inventory seasonal analysis [15][20][23][26].

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing slight declines in both spot and futures prices, influenced by various factors including pollution alerts and price adjustments in raw materials [1][12]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The third round of price increases for coke is set to take effect on November 5, with major steel mills in Tangshan and other regions planning to raise prices by 50-55 CNY per ton, providing strong cost support for steel prices [2]. - As of late October, the social inventory of steel in 21 cities reached 9.05 million tons, a decrease of 3.3% month-on-month, but still significantly higher than the beginning of the year and the same period last year, indicating ongoing pressure on steel prices due to weak demand and supply constraints [3]. - Multiple regions in Henan have initiated an orange alert for heavy pollution, which may lead to production restrictions at some steel mills, potentially tightening supply and supporting steel prices [4]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - The domestic steel market saw a slight decline today, with overall transaction volumes remaining weak [5]. - All major futures contracts closed lower, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [7]. - Several steel mills have announced price reductions for construction materials, with specific decreases of 10-20 CNY per ton reported [9][10]. Group 3: Raw Material Market - The price of imported iron ore has slightly decreased, with a notable drop in shipments from Australia and an increase in domestic arrivals, leading to a weak demand environment [11]. - Coke prices are expected to stabilize as the third round of price increases is implemented, although demand remains weak due to reduced operating rates at steel mills [11]. - Scrap steel prices have also seen a slight decline, driven by decreased consumption from electric arc furnace steelmakers and overall weak demand [11]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The overall sentiment in the steel market is cooling, with expectations of stable to slightly weaker prices in the near term due to compressed steel mill profits and ongoing environmental restrictions [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price fluctuations of steel futures will increase due to the seasonal improvement in steel demand and the strong spot prices of raw materials like iron ore and coke, but the uncertainty of trade conflicts has sharply increased. The secondary rebound of steel prices in the future market will be more volatile. It is expected to trade with a relatively controllable shock logic on October 13th, and the decline caused by the realization of risks is unclear. There will be a restorative rebound near the end of the month. Attention should be paid to whether the Sino - US trade war will escalate again, the internal profit trend of the industrial chain after steel profits reach the break - even point again, and whether the iron ore supply gap worried by the market will appear in the spot market [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Review** - On October 15th, the main contracts 2601 of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated and declined, hitting new lows since July 3rd and July 11th respectively in the afternoon. The prices of some rebar and hot - rolled coil in the spot market also fell. The daily KDJ indicators of rebar and hot - rolled coil 2601 contracts continued to decline, and the daily MACD green columns continued to expand [5][6][8]. - The table shows the price, trading volume, and position of steel futures main contracts on October 15th, as well as the position of black - series futures. For example, the closing price of RB2601 was 3034 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.85%, and the trading volume was 1,018,136 lots [5][7]. - **Future Outlook** - In terms of news, after China's counter - measures, the US authorities first threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China and then lowered the expectation and tone of the Sino - US trade conflict. There are also unconfirmed news about the procurement of imported iron ore from BHP. The follow - up rebound of iron ore futures depends on the result of the game between the two sides and the real recovery of steel terminal demand [9][10]. - Fundamentally, the weekly output of the five major steel products in the past six weeks has declined compared with late August but remains at a relatively high level. After the demand reached a new high since early June in the week of October 3rd, it significantly shrank last week due to the long holiday, and the social inventory of the five major steel products reached a new high since mid - April. In the raw material market, the iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills and the imported ore sinter powder inventory of 64 sample steel mills have significantly declined. The shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore has increased, and the arrival volume has also increased significantly. The profit per ton of coke has turned positive after three consecutive weeks of losses, and the first round of spot price increase of coke was implemented on October 1st [10][11]. 3.2 Industry News - Premier Li Qiang chaired an economic situation symposium, emphasizing the implementation of more proactive and effective macro - policies to promote economic recovery, and proposed measures such as expanding domestic demand and building a first - class industrial ecosystem [12]. - In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) showed that the year - on - year decline narrowed, and some industries' prices showed positive changes. For example, the price decline of coal processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries narrowed [13]. - According to statistics, in September 2025, the sales volume of various excavators increased by 25.4% year - on - year. From January to September, the total sales volume increased by 18.1% year - on - year [13]. - Hebei Province issued measures to support key industries' environmental performance to reach level A, and steel industry leading enterprises may not reduce crude steel production or reduce the reduction ratio [13]. - Shanxi Coking Coal Group and Hunan Iron and Steel Group held a symposium to strengthen cooperation in the "coal - steel - coke" industry chain [13]. - Some companies released production and sales data. For example, Lu'an Huaneng's coal production in September 2025 increased by 6.06% year - on - year, and Zhonglv Electric's power generation in the third quarter increased by 86.46% year - on - year [14]. - The first coal - to - natural - gas project in Northeast China achieved a breakthrough, and the first - phase project was fully connected [14]. - The freight volume of Tongjiang Railway Port exceeded 5 million tons 46 days earlier than last year, with significant increases in coal and iron ore imports [14]. - China's Ministry of Commerce responded to the US 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding industry, and relevant Chinese departments will launch investigations and include some enterprises in the counter - measure list [14]. - BHP will settle 30% of the amount in RMB in iron ore spot transactions with China starting from the fourth quarter of 2025, and will initiate long - term contract negotiations in RMB if the market acceptance of the Chinese RMB iron ore index reaches the standard [15]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised the forecast of global economic growth rate for this year to 3.2%, and maintained the forecast of China's economic growth rate at 4.8% this year [15]. 3.3 Data Overview - There are multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output and inventory of the five major steel products, the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities, the blast furnace and electric furnace start - up rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and January contracts. The data sources are mainly Mysteel and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [17][18][21][28][32][36].