报告类型 钢材月报 日期 2026 年 3 月 2 日 021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3033782 交易咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 交易咨询证书号： Z0023472 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 钢材：预计 3 月上旬后或将迎来由弱转强的拐点 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 月度报告 近期研究报告 供应出清》 2025-12-02 落》 2025-10-31 二次反弹》 2025-10-09 观点摘要 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - ＃2 月su份mm，a在ry＃国际贵金属与有色金属价格大幅回落、《现代化 首都都市圈空间协同规划（2023－2035 年）》发布、伊朗局 势再度升温引发贵金属和原油价格明显反弹、中国证监会发 布监管指引严管境内资产境外代币化发 ...

钢材周报 2026 年 3 月 2 日 关注两会指引 期价震荡企稳 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/9 ⚫ 宏观面：中国人民政治协商会议第十四届全国委员会第 四次会议将于2026年3月4日在北京召开。上海发布楼市 "沪七条"，明确进一步调减住房限购政策，其中对非 本市户籍居民家庭或成年单身人士购买外环内住房的， 购房所需缴纳社会保险或个人所得税的年限，调整为购 房之日前连续缴纳满1年及以上。 ⚫ 基本面：上周螺纹产量165万吨，环比减少5万吨，表需 81万吨，增加39万吨，厂库233万吨，增加12万吨，社 库568万吨，增加73万吨，总库存801万 ...

假期累库明显，钢价承压回落 ——周报20260224 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 研 究 所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 | 本期观点——螺纹钢、热卷 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应：螺纹钢周产量170.38万吨（环比-4.08%，同比+4.29%），全国热卷周产量 | | | | | 309.81万吨（环比+0.67%，同比-5.50%）。 | | | | | 消费：螺纹钢表观消费41.16万吨（环比-59.61%，同比-75.59%），热卷表观消 | | | | | 费246.73万吨（环比-16.70%，同比-23.58%）。 | | | | | 库存：螺纹总库存716.04万吨（环比+22.02%，同比-15.53%），热卷总库存 | | | | | 433.85万吨（环比+17.01%，同比-0.17%）。 | | | | 螺纹 | 成本：铁水日产230.49万吨，同比去年回 ...

截至2025年12月末，CSPI为91.87点，环比下降0.08点，降幅为0.09 %；比上年末下降5.60点，降幅为 5.75 %；同比下降5.60点，降幅为5.75 %。 从全年情况看，2025年CSPI平均值为93.19点，同比下降9.28点，降幅为9.05%。从分月情况看，2025年 上半年钢材价格呈现持续震荡下行运行态势，至6月末，国内钢材综合价格指数跌破90点，达到89.51 点，为2016年11月底以来新低水平。7月份，钢材市场在"反内卷"政策预期下呈现大幅上行态势。但随 着"反内卷"消息的不断消化，市场重新回归基本面，在需求恢复不及预期的情况下，钢价依旧承压，8- 10月份钢价再度震荡下行。11-12月份钢材价格持续窄幅震荡运行。全年来看，2025年国内钢价延续弱 势，呈现"倒N型"波动走势。 进入2026年1月份，钢材市场供需矛盾加剧，部分品种开始累库，但成本支撑力度维持韧性，叠加宏观 政策预期升温，国内钢材市场价格继续呈窄幅震荡运行态势。 据中钢协监测，2025年12月份，中国钢材价格指数（CSPI）平均值为92.03点，环比上升0.56点，升幅 为0.61%；同比下降5.70点，降幅为5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the steel industry are weak, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The profitability of steel mills has increased, but with the deepening of the off - season, demand is expected to gradually weaken, and the upward driving force is limited [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1成材 (Finished Products) - **Supply**: Some steel mills carried out maintenance. The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills nationwide was 1.903 million tons (- 0.74 thousand tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 3.0836 million tons (+ 2.85 thousand tons) [4]. - **Demand**: Demand increased but was seasonally weak overall. The apparent demand for rebar last week was 1.9034 million tons (+ 15.38 thousand tons), and that for hot - rolled coils was 3.1416 million tons (+ 5.82 thousand tons) [4]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory decreased slightly, and hot - rolled coil inventory continued to decline but still faced pressure. Rebar total inventory was 4.3807 million tons (- 0.04 thousand tons), social inventory was 2.9541 million tons (+ 5.23 thousand tons), and steel mill inventory was 1.4266 million tons (- 5.27 thousand tons); hot - rolled total inventory was 3.6233 million tons (- 5.8 thousand tons), social inventory was 2.858 million tons (- 5.01 thousand tons), and steel mill inventory was 0.7653 million tons (- 0.79 thousand tons) [4]. - **Basis**: As of January 16, the basis of the rebar main contract was 137 yuan/ton (- 9 yuan/ton), and that of the hot - rolled main contract was - 15 yuan/ton (+ 9 yuan/ton) [4]. - **Summary**: The profitability rate of steel mills rose to 39.83%; the molten iron output was 2.2801 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14.9 thousand tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 78.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.47%, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56%; the electric furnace operating rate was 72.97%, unchanged from the previous week, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 57.99%, a week - on - week increase of 1.08% [4]. 3.2 Raw Materials - **Prices**: The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,470 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang was 1,426 yuan/ton (+ 23 yuan/ton), and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 819 yuan/ton (- 7 yuan/ton) [17]. 3.3 Steel Mill Operating Conditions - **Molten Iron Output and Blast Furnace Operating Rate**: Molten iron output declined, and the blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly. As of January 16, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan was 90.77%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78% [20][30]. - **Profitability Rate**: The profitability rate of steel mills increased [24]. 3.4 Production - **Rebar**: As of January 16, rebar production decreased by 0.74 thousand tons week - on - week. In terms of process, long - process production decreased by 1.94 thousand tons week - on - week, and short - process production increased by 1.2 thousand tons week - on - week [35]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: Hot - rolled coil production increased by 2.85 thousand tons week - on - week [35]. 3.5 Demand - **Rebar**: As of January 16, the weekly average trading volume of rebar was 91.8 thousand tons [43]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: As of January 16, the weekly average trading volume of hot - rolled coils was 30.2 thousand tons. The downstream cold - rolled production was 886.7 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 thousand tons, and it was at a high level compared to the same period [48]. 3.6 Inventory - **Tangshan Billet**: As of January 16, the inventory of Tangshan billets was 521 thousand tons, a week - on - week decrease of 97.7 thousand tons. The inventory of major steel products was 8.661 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.74 thousand tons [52]. - **Rebar**: Rebar inventory decreased slightly [54]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: Hot - rolled coil inventory continued to decline [59]. 3.7 Downstream Industries - **Steel Exports**: In November, steel exports were 9.98 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 197.8 thousand tons; from January to November, the cumulative steel export volume was 107.7 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.8303 million tons [64]. - **Automobile Industry**: In November, automobile production was 3.532 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 173.3 thousand vehicles; automobile sales were 3.429 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 106.9 thousand tons. In November, new - energy vehicle production was 1.88 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 108 thousand vehicles; new - energy vehicle sales were 1.823 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 108 thousand tons [68]. - **Real Estate Industry**: From January to December, national real estate development investment decreased by 17.2% year - on - year, with a decline of 1.3%. Specifically, from January to December, the cumulative new construction area of houses was 597.7 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%; the cumulative completion area of houses was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%. From January to December, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%. The sales amount of newly built commercial housing decreased by 12.6% year - on - year, with a decline of 1.5%. From January to December, the cumulative funds in place of development enterprises was 93.117 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.4% [72].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The news factor may cause the steel price to turn from strong to weak recently, but there is still support from the fundamentals. It is expected that the market will first decline and then rise, and the overall trend will be range - bound [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On December 30, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures 2605 generally rose first and then fell. The rebar futures contract RB2605 closed at 3134 yuan/ton, down 0.10%; the hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2605 closed at 3282 yuan/ton, down 0.33%; the stainless - steel futures contract SS2602 closed at 13090 yuan/ton, up 1.28% [5]. - In the spot market, on December 30, the prices of major rebar spot markets were basically stable, while the prices of individual hot - rolled coil spot markets fluctuated. The hot - rolled coil prices in Hefei and Fuzhou markets rose by 10 yuan/ton, and the price in Lecong market fell by 10 yuan/ton [7]. - In terms of technical indicators, the daily KDJ indicator of the rebar 2605 contract rose, with the J value turning up and the K and D values continuing to rise; the daily KDJ indicator of the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract formed a death cross. The daily MACD red column of the rebar 2605 contract slightly enlarged for two consecutive trading days, while that of the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract turned to a slight narrowing [7]. 3.2 Market Outlook - News: There are reports that JPMorgan Chase's long - position in silver exceeded regulatory requirements, leading to regulatory intervention. For JPMorgan Chase, taking profits may be the best option. The significant fluctuations in international silver prices have triggered resonance in related metal commodity markets [8]. - Fundamentals: The decline in the output of the five major steel products has significantly narrowed, and the demand has continued to decline slightly. Due to the weekly supply being less than demand, the social inventory has continued to decline to a new low since mid - January. On the cost side, the iron ore price has continued to rise to a new high since late February, while the fourth round of price cuts for coke spot is expected to be implemented on New Year's Day. Despite the one - up - one - down situation, the steel cost remains relatively firm [9]. 3.3 Industry News - On December 26, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment held a regular press conference, reporting on the implementation of the Action Plan for Source Prevention and Control of Soil Pollution, including pollutant reduction in key industries and infrastructure improvement [10]. - The Tariff Policy Commission of the State Council issued the 2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan, which will be implemented from January 1, 2026, including adjustments to import provisional tax rates and the addition of new sub - items [10]. - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade released the latest economic and trade friction index. In October, the amount involved in global economic and trade friction measures decreased by 7.3% year - on - year but remained at a high level [10]. - On December 26, the expert consultation meeting on the 14th Five - Year Plan for the steel industry was held in Beijing, emphasizing aspects such as减量 development, carbon peaking, standard setting, digital transformation, and product structure adjustment [10]. - On December 29, Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway stated that the expected increase in related transaction amounts in the next three years is due to the decline in coal transportation demand and the expansion of non - coal bulk markets [11]. - China Power signed a new coal supply framework agreement with Huainan Mining on December 29, 2025, with a supply period from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2028 [11]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Trade issued a regulation using the Indonesian coal benchmark price (HBA) as a basis for export reference prices, but the specific implementation time and mechanism of the export tariff policy remain to be determined [11]. - On December 26, Liugang Group's annual output of automotive steel exceeded one million tons, and the annual sales of container plates, die steel, and exported steel also reached one million tons [11]. - On December 26, Ganeng Co., Ltd. announced the transfer of 20% of its shares in Pingxiang Juyuan Coal Industry Co., Ltd. to Jiangxi Coal Industry Group Co., Ltd. at a price of 0 yuan [11]. - India's crude oil imports in November increased by 11.1% year - on - year, while petroleum product imports decreased by about 8.6% and exports decreased by 1.7% [11]. - India's coal imports in November 2025 were 19.2658 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.56% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.64%. From January to November, the total coal imports were 227 million tons, a 1.18% decrease from the previous year [11]. 3.4 Data Overview The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output and steel mill inventory of the five major steel products, the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and their May contracts. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14][17][24][32][33].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the steel market showed a relatively strong performance. Under the influence of macro - news speculation, the low - price situation improved slightly, but the actual demand was poor and the trading volume was average. Currently, steel mills are reducing production and the inventory pressure is not high, so they have a strong willingness to raise prices. In the short term, the contradiction between supply and demand is not significant, but due to lack of confidence, the price increase is under pressure [1]. - In the short term, with the fermentation of macro - sentiment and the rhythmic support of low - inventory destocking, the market price may fluctuate and tend to be strong. However, there are still important risk factors among the variables derived from time. It is recommended to focus on changes in market sentiment and the trend of raw fuels [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - The steel market was strong this week. Macro - news speculation improved the low - price situation, but actual demand was poor and trading was average. Steel mills' production cuts and low inventory pressure led to a strong willingness to raise prices. Short - term supply - demand contradictions are small, but price increases are pressured by lack of confidence [1]. - In the short term, the market price may fluctuate and strengthen due to macro - sentiment and low - inventory destocking support. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and raw fuel trends [1]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - Steel mill daily average hot metal production was 2.2655 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,500 tons (-1.16%). - Rebar steel mill inventory was 1.3954 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,600 tons (-0.89%). - Rebar social inventory was 3.13 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 257,000 tons (-7.59%). - Hot - rolled coil steel mill inventory was 0.8342 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,100 tons (-0.73%). - Hot - rolled coil social inventory was 3.073 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 57,600 tons (-1.84%) [3]. Futures Market Review The report provides multiple figures related to the futures market, including the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, rebar 01 - 05 spread, hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 spread, disk coil - rebar spread, and speculation degree (trading volume/position) [6][8]. Spot Market Review The report includes figures on the rebar price in East China (Shanghai), hot - rolled 4.75 spot price (Shanghai), rebar basis, and hot - rolled coil basis [12][13]. Fundamental Data The report presents figures on 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal production, rebar blast furnace profit, rebar supply - demand trend, hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend, rebar steel mill inventory seasonal analysis, rebar social inventory seasonal analysis, hot - rolled coil steel mill inventory seasonal analysis, and hot - rolled coil social inventory seasonal analysis [15][20][23][26].

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing slight declines in both spot and futures prices, influenced by various factors including pollution alerts and price adjustments in raw materials [1][12]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The third round of price increases for coke is set to take effect on November 5, with major steel mills in Tangshan and other regions planning to raise prices by 50-55 CNY per ton, providing strong cost support for steel prices [2]. - As of late October, the social inventory of steel in 21 cities reached 9.05 million tons, a decrease of 3.3% month-on-month, but still significantly higher than the beginning of the year and the same period last year, indicating ongoing pressure on steel prices due to weak demand and supply constraints [3]. - Multiple regions in Henan have initiated an orange alert for heavy pollution, which may lead to production restrictions at some steel mills, potentially tightening supply and supporting steel prices [4]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - The domestic steel market saw a slight decline today, with overall transaction volumes remaining weak [5]. - All major futures contracts closed lower, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [7]. - Several steel mills have announced price reductions for construction materials, with specific decreases of 10-20 CNY per ton reported [9][10]. Group 3: Raw Material Market - The price of imported iron ore has slightly decreased, with a notable drop in shipments from Australia and an increase in domestic arrivals, leading to a weak demand environment [11]. - Coke prices are expected to stabilize as the third round of price increases is implemented, although demand remains weak due to reduced operating rates at steel mills [11]. - Scrap steel prices have also seen a slight decline, driven by decreased consumption from electric arc furnace steelmakers and overall weak demand [11]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The overall sentiment in the steel market is cooling, with expectations of stable to slightly weaker prices in the near term due to compressed steel mill profits and ongoing environmental restrictions [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price fluctuations of steel futures will increase due to the seasonal improvement in steel demand and the strong spot prices of raw materials like iron ore and coke, but the uncertainty of trade conflicts has sharply increased. The secondary rebound of steel prices in the future market will be more volatile. It is expected to trade with a relatively controllable shock logic on October 13th, and the decline caused by the realization of risks is unclear. There will be a restorative rebound near the end of the month. Attention should be paid to whether the Sino - US trade war will escalate again, the internal profit trend of the industrial chain after steel profits reach the break - even point again, and whether the iron ore supply gap worried by the market will appear in the spot market [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Review** - On October 15th, the main contracts 2601 of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated and declined, hitting new lows since July 3rd and July 11th respectively in the afternoon. The prices of some rebar and hot - rolled coil in the spot market also fell. The daily KDJ indicators of rebar and hot - rolled coil 2601 contracts continued to decline, and the daily MACD green columns continued to expand [5][6][8]. - The table shows the price, trading volume, and position of steel futures main contracts on October 15th, as well as the position of black - series futures. For example, the closing price of RB2601 was 3034 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.85%, and the trading volume was 1,018,136 lots [5][7]. - **Future Outlook** - In terms of news, after China's counter - measures, the US authorities first threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China and then lowered the expectation and tone of the Sino - US trade conflict. There are also unconfirmed news about the procurement of imported iron ore from BHP. The follow - up rebound of iron ore futures depends on the result of the game between the two sides and the real recovery of steel terminal demand [9][10]. - Fundamentally, the weekly output of the five major steel products in the past six weeks has declined compared with late August but remains at a relatively high level. After the demand reached a new high since early June in the week of October 3rd, it significantly shrank last week due to the long holiday, and the social inventory of the five major steel products reached a new high since mid - April. In the raw material market, the iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills and the imported ore sinter powder inventory of 64 sample steel mills have significantly declined. The shipment volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore has increased, and the arrival volume has also increased significantly. The profit per ton of coke has turned positive after three consecutive weeks of losses, and the first round of spot price increase of coke was implemented on October 1st [10][11]. 3.2 Industry News - Premier Li Qiang chaired an economic situation symposium, emphasizing the implementation of more proactive and effective macro - policies to promote economic recovery, and proposed measures such as expanding domestic demand and building a first - class industrial ecosystem [12]. - In September 2025, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) showed that the year - on - year decline narrowed, and some industries' prices showed positive changes. For example, the price decline of coal processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries narrowed [13]. - According to statistics, in September 2025, the sales volume of various excavators increased by 25.4% year - on - year. From January to September, the total sales volume increased by 18.1% year - on - year [13]. - Hebei Province issued measures to support key industries' environmental performance to reach level A, and steel industry leading enterprises may not reduce crude steel production or reduce the reduction ratio [13]. - Shanxi Coking Coal Group and Hunan Iron and Steel Group held a symposium to strengthen cooperation in the "coal - steel - coke" industry chain [13]. - Some companies released production and sales data. For example, Lu'an Huaneng's coal production in September 2025 increased by 6.06% year - on - year, and Zhonglv Electric's power generation in the third quarter increased by 86.46% year - on - year [14]. - The first coal - to - natural - gas project in Northeast China achieved a breakthrough, and the first - phase project was fully connected [14]. - The freight volume of Tongjiang Railway Port exceeded 5 million tons 46 days earlier than last year, with significant increases in coal and iron ore imports [14]. - China's Ministry of Commerce responded to the US 301 investigation on China's shipbuilding industry, and relevant Chinese departments will launch investigations and include some enterprises in the counter - measure list [14]. - BHP will settle 30% of the amount in RMB in iron ore spot transactions with China starting from the fourth quarter of 2025, and will initiate long - term contract negotiations in RMB if the market acceptance of the Chinese RMB iron ore index reaches the standard [15]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised the forecast of global economic growth rate for this year to 3.2%, and maintained the forecast of China's economic growth rate at 4.8% this year [15]. 3.3 Data Overview - There are multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output and inventory of the five major steel products, the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities, the blast furnace and electric furnace start - up rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and January contracts. The data sources are mainly Mysteel and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [17][18][21][28][32][36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Both rebar and hot-rolled coil are facing a combination of weak current situations and weakening expectations, and steel prices may experience a slight correction [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3,083 yuan/ton and 3,261 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of -24 yuan/ton (-0.77%) and -29 yuan/ton (-0.88%). The trading volumes were 1,231,858 hands and 557,390 hands, and the open interests were 1,952,748 hands and 1,422,524 hands, with increases of 26,595 hands and 24,873 hands respectively [1] - **Spot Price Data**: Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton; hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton; the price of Tangshan steel billet decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of RB2601 decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2601 decreased by 6 yuan/ton. The spread of RB2601 - RB2605 remained unchanged, the spread of HC2601 - HC2605 increased by 50, the spread of HC2601 - RB2601 decreased by 4, the spread of HC2605 - RB2605 increased by 2, and the spot coil - rebar spread decreased by 10 [1] Macro and Industry News - In October 2025, the US announced export controls on relevant items such as rare earths from China, imposing a 100% tariff and implementing export controls on all key software [1][3] - In August 2025, China's steel exports were 9.51 million tons, a 3.3% month - on - month decrease, with an average export price of $698.0/ton, basically unchanged from the previous month. From January to August, the cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a 9.8% year - on - year increase, with an average export price of $699.1/ton, a 10.1% year - on - year decrease. In August, China's steel imports were 50,000 tons, a 10.4% month - on - month increase, and the average import price was $1,653.0/ton, an 8.4% month - on - month decrease. From January to August, the cumulative steel imports were 3.977 million tons, a 14.1% year - on - year decrease, with an average import price of $1,697.7/ton, a 1.5% year - on - year increase [3] - According to the weekly data of Steel Union on October 8, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 36,200 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 14,000 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 37,600 tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar increased by 239,600 tons, hot - rolled coil increased by 299,200 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 692,300 tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar decreased by 950,600 tons, hot - rolled coil decreased by 336,400 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 1.6937 million tons [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar is 0, and that of hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]