Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends, resistance levels, and support levels of various futures contracts on January 9, 2026, and for the month of January 2026 [2][5]. - It also provides the performance of these futures contracts on January 8, 2026, including opening prices, closing prices, price changes, and key support and resistance levels [12][32][40] etc. - The report includes macro - economic news, such as statements from government officials, economic data releases, and geopolitical events, which may impact the futures market [6][7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **January 9, 2026 Outlook**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be strongly volatile. For example, IF2603 has resistance at 4753 and 4786 points, and support at 4708 and 4690 points [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold (AU2602) is expected to be strongly volatile; silver (AG2604), platinum (PT2606), and palladium (PD2606) are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2]. - **Base Metals**: Copper (CU2602), aluminum (AL2602), alumina (AO2605), and tin (SN2602) are expected to be weakly volatile; nickel (NI2602) is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2]. - **Other Commodities**: Polysilicon (PS2605), glass (FG605), and soda ash (SA605) are expected to be weakly volatile; lithium carbonate (LC2605) is expected to be strongly and widely volatile; rebar (RB2605), hot - rolled coil (HC2605), iron ore (I2605), and coking coal (JM2605) are expected to be weakly volatile [2][4]. - **January 2026 Outlook**: - Stock index futures' main continuous contracts are expected to be strongly volatile [5][17]. - Gold, silver, copper, and aluminum futures' main continuous contracts are expected to be strongly volatile and may reach new highs [5]. - Polysilicon futures' main continuous contract is expected to be weakly volatile [5]. Macro - economic News - **Domestic News**: The Ministry of Commerce will assess Meta's acquisition of Manus; the Ministry of Finance welcomes LSEG's cooperation; Guangzhou plans to develop advanced manufacturing industries [6]. - **International News**: Trump promotes sanctions against Russia; the US may manage Venezuela's oil industry; the US Supreme Court will rule on tariff legality; the US may exit 66 international organizations; the US is expected to cut interest rates; the US economic data shows GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment trends [6][7][8]. Futures Market Performance on January 8, 2026 - **Stock Index Futures**: IF2603, IH2603, and IC2603 had different trends, with some facing downward pressure and others having limited upward space [12][13][14]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold (AU2602) had a slight decline; silver, platinum, and palladium also showed downward trends [32][40][45]. - **Base Metals**: Copper, aluminum, and nickel futures had significant declines [52][58][68]. - **Other Commodities**: Polysilicon futures hit the daily limit down; coking coal futures had a significant increase; glass and soda ash futures had different trends [79][102][106].

二、基本面数据 【冠通期货研究报告】 热卷日报：震荡整理 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 8 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周三持仓量增仓 63008 手，成交量 696880 手， 相比上一交易日缩量，日内最低价 3302 元，最高价 3348 元，日内震荡运行，洗 盘较为剧烈，日均线来看站上 5 日，10 日，20 日均线，表现强势，收于 3317 元/吨，上涨 16 元/吨，涨幅 0.48%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3320 元/吨。相比上一交易日上涨 20 元。 3，基差：期现基差 3 元，基差接近平水。 供需情况： ■供应端：截止 1 月 8 日热卷周产量环比上升 1 万吨至 305.51 万吨。年同 比上升 1.62 万吨，产量连续三周回升，主要还是钢厂盈利改善，生产积极性有 所提升，叠加部分钢厂铁水从建材向板材调配，且钢厂结束年度检修，复产力度 加大。推动供应回升，后续需要观察回升力度。 ■需求端：截止 1 月 8 日周度表观消费量环比下降 2.43 万吨至 308.34 万吨， 表需小幅回落，年同比上升 7.25 万吨，需求仍然存在韧性， 投资有风险，入市 ...

021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3033782 交易咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 交易咨询证书号： Z0023472 报告类型 钢材日评 日期 2025 年 1 月 7 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | 表1：1月6日钢材期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | ...

金融期货早评 宏观：内稳外扰下的结构机遇 【市场资讯】1）中国人民银行部署 2026 年重点工作，要求灵活高效运用降准降息等多种 货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。2）国家外汇局召开 2026 年全国外汇管理工作会议。会 议提出，2026 年出台境外放款、国内外汇贷款资金管理等政策，在全国实施跨国公司本外 币跨境资金集中运营管理政策。筑牢外汇市场"防波堤""防浪堤"，维护外汇市场稳健运行。 3）美联储理事米兰：2026 年需要降息超过 100 个基点。4）委内瑞拉局势——①油库满载 委内瑞拉和美国就向美出口石油问题进行谈判。②马杜罗执政初期，委内瑞拉向瑞士运送 了价值 52 亿美元的黄金。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】1 月 5 日至 6 日召开的 2026 年中国人民银行工作会议，正式确认 全年货币政策基调为"适度宽松"，并首次强调增量政策与存量政策的"集成效应"，标志着宏 观调控思路的系统性调整。会议明确将灵活运用降准降息等多种工具，保持流动性合理充 裕，并完善结构性货币政策，加大对科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的支持。这一部署 与"两重""两新"投资及消费提振政策形成协同，强化了对基建、工业品及下游板块的支撑力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data from Baocheng Futures on January 7, 2026, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various futures products including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The basis data of thermal coal from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are - 131.4, - 131.4, - 123.4, - 116.4, - 113.4 yuan/ton respectively, and the 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads are all 0.0 [1][2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented, such as the basis of INE crude oil being - 5.19 yuan/ton on January 6, 2026 [6] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are provided. For example, the basis of rubber on January 6, 2026, is - 400 yuan/ton [8] - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For instance, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber is 35 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, on January 6, 2026, LLDPE - PVC is 1648 yuan/ton [9] 3.3 Black Metals - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar is 33.0 yuan/ton [18] - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data such as rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, on January 6, 2026, rebar/iron ore is 3.89 [18] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are given. For example, the basis of rebar on January 6, 2026, is 159.0 yuan/ton [19] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of copper on January 6, 2026, is - 1600 yuan/ton [28] 3.4.2 London Market - The LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on January 6, 2026, are provided. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper is 2.98 [31] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on January 6, 2026, is - 196 yuan/ton [37] - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 is 61 [37] - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety data such as soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, on January 6, 2026, soybeans No.1/corn is 1.92 [37] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 29, 2025, to January 6, 2026, are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on January 6, 2026, is 12.69 [48] - **Inter - period**: The next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. For example, the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 is - 10.6 [48]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 螺卷早报（2026-1-6） 每日观点 螺纹： 1、基本面：需求不见起色，库存低位回升，贸易商采购意愿仍不强，地产行业继续处下行周期；偏空 2、基差：螺纹现货价3290，基差186；偏多 3、库存：全国35个主要城市库存294.19万吨，环比减少，同比增加；偏多 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：螺纹主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：房地产市场依旧偏弱，需求降温，国内有去产能的计划冲击市场，震荡偏空思路对待 利多： 产量维持低位，现货升水，促进国内消费。 利空： 下游地产行业下行周期延续，终端需求继续弱势运行低于同期。 每日观点 热卷： 1、基本面：供需都有所走弱，库存继续减少，出口受阻，国内政策或发力；中性 2 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 热卷日报：增仓下跌 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 5 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周一持仓量增仓 26969 手，成交量 391613 手， 相比上一交易日增量，日内最低价 3243 元，最高价 3277 元，日内增仓下跌，收 于 3248 元/吨，下跌 26 元/吨，跌幅 0.79%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3270 元/吨。相比上一交易日维稳。 3，基差：期现基差 22 元，基差接近平水。 二、基本面数据 三、市场驱动因素分析 ■偏多因素：供应端产量下降明显，冬储需求启动预期，抢出口行情，政策托底 （"十五五"规划、基建投资），炉料铁矿偏强 供需情况： ■供应端：截止 12 月 31 日热卷周产量环比上升 10.97 万吨至 304.51 万吨。 本周热卷产量连续两周回升，且相比上周大幅回升。主要还是钢厂盈利改善，生 产积极性有所提升，叠加部分钢厂铁水从建材向板材调配，且钢厂结束年度检修， 复产力度加大。推动供应回升，后续需要观察回升力度。 ■需求端：截止 12 月 31 日周度表观消费量环比上升 3.73 万吨至 310.77 万吨，表需回 ...

【核心逻辑】海外方面，美国 GDP 数据数据公布，三季度 GDP 超预期增长 4.3%，创两年 最快增速，整体表现相对强劲，在一定程度上打击了降息预期。美国就业市场回温，上周 首申 21.4 万人，较前值小幅回落，整体数据显示劳动力市场仍具韧性。在缺乏新催化剂、 流动性偏紧的背景下，美联储会议纪要未能提振美股。接下来重点关注特朗普公布的下任 美联储主席人选情况。国内方面，政治局会议与中央经济工作会议延续"稳中求进"总基调， 继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策；明年重点工作以扩大内需为首要任 务，核心在于推进城乡居民增收与释放服务消费潜力，同时依托创新推动新旧动能转换。 而 11 月经济数据显示工业生产韧性尚存，社会消费品零售同比增速降至 1.3%，内需表现 偏弱，仍需政策托底。关注国内 PMI 数据公布情况。 人民币汇率：7 关口迎终局检验 【行情回顾】前一交易日，在岸人民币对美元 16:30 收盘报 6.9901，较上一交易日上涨 197 个基点，创 2023 年 5 月以来新高，夜盘收报 6.9940。在岸、离岸人民币对美元一度 均升破 6.99 关口。人民币对美元中间价报 7.0348，较上 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data from Baocheng Futures on December 31, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various futures products in different industries [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - The basis data of power coal from December 24 - 30, 2025 is presented, with the basis on December 30 being - 131.4 yuan/ton. The 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 inter - period spreads are all 0.0 [1][2]. Energy and Chemical Industry Energy Commodities - For energy commodities, the basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the crude oil/asphalt ratio from December 24 - 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on December 30 is - 2.76 yuan/ton, and the crude oil/asphalt ratio is 0.1455 [7]. Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from December 24 - 30, 2025 are given. For instance, the basis of rubber on December 30 is - 370 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of LLDPE is 81 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 24 - 30, 2025 are shown. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on December 30 is 1668 yuan/ton [11]. Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 24 - 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on December 30 is 186.0 yuan/ton [21]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, 9(10) - 5) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rebar is 24.0 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from December 24 - 30, 2025 are shown. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on December 30 is 3.95 [20]. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 24 - 30, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of copper on December 30 is - 220 yuan/ton [28]. London Market - The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper is 39.87, and the import profit and loss is - 886.92 yuan/ton [35]. Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 24 - 30, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on December 30 is - 204 yuan/ton [42]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1, 9 - 1, 9 - 5) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of soybean meal is - 312 yuan/ton [42]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from December 24 - 30, 2025 are shown. For example, the soybean oil/soybean meal ratio on December 30 is 2.84 [42]. Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 24 - 30, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on December 30 is 29.08 [53]. - **Inter - period**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented. For example, the next month - current month inter - period spread of CSI 300 is - 13.0 [53].

金融期货早评 宏观：关注下任美联储主席人选公布情况 【市场资讯】1）央行副行长陆磊：新一代数字人民币计量框架、管理体系、运行机制和生 态体系将于 2026 年 1 月 1 日正式启动实施。2）白银跳水，猜疑四起，传闻称某系统重要 性银行因白银期货空头爆仓，有猜测认为涉事方为欧洲大行。3）特朗普：正考虑以"严重 失职"为由起诉鲍威尔，1 月或公布下任美联储主席人选。4）俄罗斯称乌 91 架无人机袭击 普京官邸，泽连斯基否认，特朗普"很生气"。5）美军首次袭击委内瑞拉陆地目标？特朗普 称美军摧毁一"大型设施"。6）特朗普会晤内塔尼亚胡，就伊朗核问题再次发出威胁。 【核心逻辑】海外方面，美国 GDP 数据公布，三季度 GDP 超预期增长 4.3%，创两年最快 增速，整体表现相对强劲，在一定程度上打击了降息预期。美国就业市场回温，上周首申 21.4 万人，较前值小幅回落，整体数据显示劳动力市场仍具韧性。接下来重点关注特朗普 公布的下任美联储主席人选情况。国内方面，政治局会议与中央经济工作会议延续"稳中求 进"总基调，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策；明年重点工作以扩大内 需为首要任务，核心在于推进城乡居 ...