光期研究 见微知著 钢材策略月报 2026 年 3 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 钢材：供需基本面偏弱，宏观及产业政策扰动加大 p 2 | 钢材：供需基本面偏弱，宏观及产业政策扰动加大 | | --- | p 4 1.1 价格：2月黑色系商品震荡下跌，原料跌幅大于钢材，期货跌幅大于现货 数据来源:wind,光大期货研究所 商品类型 指标 2月27日 1月30日 月度涨跌（元/吨） 月度涨跌幅（%） 期货 螺纹2605 3,067 3,128 -61 -1.95% 热卷2605 3,215 3,288 -73 -2.22% 铁矿2605 750.5 791.5 -41 -5.18% 焦炭2605 1,636 1,722 -86 -5.00% 焦煤2605 1,093.5 1,155.5 -62 -5.37% 现货 上海20mm螺纹 3210 3250 -40 -1.23% 上海4.75mm热卷 3230 3270 -40 -1.22% 上海1.0mm冷卷 3630 3670 -40 -1.09% 上海20mm中 ...

报告类型 钢材月报 日期 2026 年 3 月 2 日 021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3033782 交易咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 交易咨询证书号： Z0023472 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 钢材：预计 3 月上旬后或将迎来由弱转强的拐点 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 月度报告 近期研究报告 供应出清》 2025-12-02 落》 2025-10-31 二次反弹》 2025-10-09 观点摘要 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - ＃2 月su份mm，a在ry＃国际贵金属与有色金属价格大幅回落、《现代化 首都都市圈空间协同规划（2023－2035 年）》发布、伊朗局 势再度升温引发贵金属和原油价格明显反弹、中国证监会发 布监管指引严管境内资产境外代币化发 ...

投资咨询中心 期现日报 2026年03月02日 | 为贝益国 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 今收 | 昨结 | 深跌 | 涨跌幅(%) 成交量(手 | | 增减 | 持仓量(手) | 仓是 | 授机度 | 增减 | | 原油主力 | 527. 8 | 484.3 | 43.5 | 8.98 | 190029 | 45717 | 44.601 | 5.628 | 4. 26 | 0.56 | | 原油指数 | 527. 4 | 484.0 | 43.4 | 8.97 | 318407 | 120927 | 109. 445 | 21,032 | 2.91 | 0. 68 | | PTA主力 | 5552 | 5216 | 336. 0 | 6. 44 | 2276096 | 1336643 | 1.467.484 | 20, 629 | 1. 55 | 0. 90 | | PTA指数 | 5548 | 5219 | 329.0 | 6. 30 | 2 ...

黑色金属期货月报 热卷：上周热卷期价震荡偏弱，热轧卷板主力 2605 合约报收 3215 元/吨，周涨跌-7 元/吨，涨幅-0.22%。行业上，中韩在热轧板卷 反倾销案中达成价格承诺协议，韩方对中国输韩热轧板卷实施配 额制管理。 基本面分析。 1.铁矿：基本面呈现供应降需求增。供应端，全球铁矿石发运 量环比回升至 3320.9 万吨，，周环比增加 631 万吨； 47 港铁矿石 到港量环比小幅下滑至 2321.1 万吨，周环比减少 175 万吨；。今年 47 港铁矿石到港量累计同比增加 2697 万吨。需求端，本周 247 样 本钢厂铁水日均产量为 233.28 万吨/天，环比上周增 2.8 万吨/天， 较年初增 5.2 万吨/天，同比增 5.34 万吨/天。库存端，47 港铁矿 石库存总量 17891.3 万吨，环比累库 159 万吨，较年初累库 1170 万 吨。比去年同期库存高 2135 万吨。 2．螺纹：五大钢材品种供应 796.77 万吨，周环比下降 7.98 万吨，降幅 1%。整体需求量级下降，市场不确定性增加，部分钢厂 整体进行不饱和生产。五大钢材总库存 1846.11 万吨，周环比增 134. ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周五持仓量减仓 791 手，成交量 277047 手，相比上一交易日缩量，日内最低价 3197 元，最高价 3220 元，日均线来看短 期回落至 5 日均线，中期 30 日均线，60 日均线压力依然存在，收于 3215 元/吨， 下跌 8 元，跌幅 0.25%。 热卷日报：震荡整理 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3230 元/吨。相比上一交易日维稳。 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 27 日 3，基差：期现基差 15 元。 一、市场行情回顾 二、基本面数据 三、市场驱动因素分析 ■偏多因素：供给收缩，需求韧性，政策托底（"十五五"规划、基建投资）， ■偏空因素：需求兑现慢，原料端拖累，库存累积压制价格，宏观扰动增加 ■供应端：产量：同比收缩，环比基本持平，当期产量 309.61 万吨，同比 -13.52 万吨，环比-0.20 万吨。 •从趋势图看，2026 年产量略低于 2023-2025 年同期，说明钢厂在春节前后维持生产，但主动收缩了产能，以应对需求走弱。 ■需求端：同比大幅下滑，环比小幅回落，当期表需 268.37 万吨，同比-53.96 万吨 ...

商品类别 品种 周收盘价 周涨跌幅 20日年化波动率 波动率变化(%) 投机度 趋势度 资金变动 黄金 1,147.90 3.41% 72.66% 0.27% 1.13 -0.04 -147.54 白银 23,019.00 16.36% 129.12% 7.64% 1.95 0.21 -11.81 铜 103,920.00 3.27% 44.13% 0.88% 0.67 0.38 -127.74 镍 141,560.00 4.13% 48.55% 2.57% 3.10 0.40 12.58 铝 23,835.00 2.45% 38.23% 0.75% 1.04 0.37 -32.02 锡 453,240.00 23.27% 81.12% 15.77% 8.18 0.55 42.72 锌 24,710.00 1.90% 26.11% 2.33% 1.45 0.46 -10.43 铅 16,840.00 0.84% 9.86% -11.23% 0.84 0.26 -6.98 工业硅 8,395.00 0.00% 15.95% -16.70% 0.58 -0.09 -4.85 螺纹钢 3,067.00 0.39% ...

期货开户入口 2017 + 价差及量能说明 2026年2月26日 CP 2 猛硅 燧油 得 LPG co 80.46 日期 红枣 码子 卡米 B # Y B 80 IC D E DP 佳节 REA 氧化铝 日报 T THE t = 8 性格 量仓变化统计 市场力" 从业资格证号:F3020809 投资咨询资格:Z0013442 研究员 田猛 本产品数据与信息均来源于公开资料,我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性 不做任何保证。我们力求内容客观、公正,观点及内容仅供参考,不构成所 述品种的买卖出价。任何表示过去或历史业绩的信息均不代表未来的业绩, 交易者据此作出的任何投资决策及交易行为与本公司无关。交易者应综合考 虑自身风险承受能力,依据自己的独立思考做出投资决策,自行承担投资决 策风险和交易结果。本报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构 和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。 风险揭示:期市有风险 入市需谨慎。本文观点仅供参考,不作为入市依据。 | 热点品种 | | | | | | | DESIGN STATUTION OF CONSULERS | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The hot-rolled coil futures market is in a game stage of "weak reality, strong expectation". The fundamentals are dominated by inventory accumulation and weak demand, putting short-term pressure on prices. However, the improvement in export profits, the resilience of steel mill production, and policy expectations form the bottom support, limiting the downside space. It is suggested to be cautiously bearish, and in the medium term, still pay attention to the pressure near the 30-day and 60-day moving averages [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures reduced its positions by 8,357 lots on Thursday, with a trading volume of 319,835 lots, a contraction compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,205 yuan, the high was 3,241 yuan. In terms of the daily average line, the short-term fell back to the 5-day moving average, and the pressure of the 30-day and 60-day moving averages in the medium term still exists. It closed at 3,220 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan, a gain of 0.16% [1]. - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,250 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between the spot and futures prices was 30 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply side: The output contracted year-on-year and was basically flat month-on-month. The current output was 3.0961 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1352 million tons and a month-on-month decrease of 0.002 million tons. In 2026, the output was slightly lower than the same period from 2023 - 2025, indicating that steel mills maintained production around the Spring Festival but actively reduced production capacity to cope with weakening demand [4]. - Demand side: The demand decreased significantly year-on-year and slightly month-on-month. The current apparent demand was 2.6837 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5396 million tons and a month-on-month decrease of 0.013 million tons. The significant year-on-year decline was mainly due to the seasonal impact of manufacturing shutdowns and stagnant terminal purchases around the Spring Festival. The slight month-on-month decline reflected that the post-festival demand recovery rhythm this year was weaker than in previous years [4]. - Inventory side: The social inventory increased significantly, and the total inventory was still lower year-on-year. The factory inventory was 947,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 14,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 33,400 tons. With basically flat output and weakening demand, the factory inventory accumulated slightly. The social inventory was 3.5737 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 169,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 134,100 tons. Traders replenished their stocks before the festival, and the replenishment intensity was greater than in previous years. The total inventory was 4.5215 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 183,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 0.5888 million tons. Although it increased significantly month-on-month, it was still significantly lower than the previous three years, indicating that the overall inventory pressure in the industry was less than in previous years [4]. - Inventory-to-sales ratio: It was at a high level, showing the pressure of supply and demand. The current inventory-to-sales ratio was 11.79 days, a significant year-on-year increase to 2.34. A high inventory-to-sales ratio means that the current inventory level is much higher than the demand digestion capacity, and the supply-demand mismatch is serious, which will suppress the rebound space of hot-rolled coil prices until the demand substantially recovers [5]. - Policy side: There were intertwined internal and external disturbances, and policy expectations dominated sentiment. Domestically, the "14th Five-Year Plan" was about to be launched in 2026, and the Two Sessions were approaching. The market's expectations for policies such as infrastructure investment, equipment renewal, and trade-in were rising, but the actual project implementation rhythm after the festival was not yet clear. Internationally, the United States imposed a 10% tariff on imported goods starting from February 24, triggering concerns about global trade frictions and potentially suppressing export-oriented steel products. In terms of liquidity, the People's Bank of China conducted a 1-trillion-yuan 6-month outright reverse repurchase on February 13, releasing medium- and long-term liquidity and providing marginal support to market sentiment [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6]. - Bearish factors: Slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro disturbances [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The hot-rolled coil futures market is in a stage of "weak reality, strong expectation" with inventory accumulation and weak demand pressuring short-term prices, but export profit improvement, steel mill production resilience, and policy expectations providing bottom support and limiting the downside space [6] 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Price**: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures increased its open interest by 323 lots on Wednesday, with a trading volume of 523,081 lots, showing increased volume compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,185 yuan, and the high was 3,242 yuan. It rebounded and rose sharply after a significant reduction in positions in the afternoon. In terms of the moving average, it briefly broke through the 5-day moving average in the short term, but there was still pressure from the 30-day and 60-day moving averages in the medium term. It closed at 3,236 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan, a 1.19% increase [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream area of Shanghai was reported at 3,230 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -5 yuan [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The production of hot-rolled coils decreased slightly and remained stable. In the week of February 13, 2026, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils was 3.0776 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons compared to the previous week. The capacity utilization rate remained at a high level of 79.14%, indicating strong production resilience of long-process steel mills [4] - **Demand**: Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, terminal demand significantly shrank, and the apparent consumption continued to weaken. Before the festival, the inventory shifted from de-stocking to stockpiling, and the supply-demand contradiction shifted to the circulation link [4] - **Inventory**: The stockpiling accelerated, and the pressure was concentrated on the social end. As of February 13, 2026, the national social inventory of hot-rolled coils was 2.8045 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 21,200 tons; the steel mill inventory was 787,500 tons, a week-on-week increase of 15,000 tons; the total inventory reached 3.592 million tons, showing a significant accumulation compared to before the festival. Although the absolute inventory level was still lower than the historical high, the stockpiling speed accelerated, and the market was cautious about the post-festival destocking rhythm [4] - **Policy**: There were internal and external disturbances, and policy expectations dominated the sentiment. Domestically, the "14th Five-Year Plan" was about to be launched in 2026, and with the approaching of the Two Sessions, market expectations for policies such as infrastructure investment, equipment renewal, and trade-in increased, but the actual project implementation rhythm after the festival was unclear. Internationally, the United States imposed a 10% tariff on imported goods starting from February 24, triggering concerns about global trade frictions and potentially suppressing export-oriented steel products. In terms of liquidity, the People's Bank of China conducted a 1-trillion-yuan 6-month outright reverse repurchase on February 13, releasing medium- and long-term liquidity and providing marginal support to market sentiment [4][5] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro disturbances [6] Short-Term View Summary - The hot-rolled coil futures rebounded sharply with a significant reduction in positions and increased volume in the afternoon, mainly due to the continuous rise in the stock market and the emission reduction control faced by some steel mills in the north with the approaching of the Two Sessions, leading short sellers to choose to leave the market and wait and see. In the short term, it broke through the 5-day moving average, and in the medium term, attention should still be paid to the pressure near the 30-day and 60-day moving averages. It is recommended to be cautious. Fundamentally, the current hot-rolled coil futures are in a game stage of "weak reality, strong expectation" [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided Core View of the Report The hot-rolled coil futures market is in a stage of "weak reality, strong expectation" game. The fundamentals are dominated by inventory accumulation and weak demand, putting short-term pressure on prices. However, improved export profits, the resilience of steel mill production, and policy expectations form a bottom support, limiting the downside space. The market as a whole maintains a weak oscillating trend [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures had an increase of 18,657 lots in open interest on Tuesday, with a trading volume of 373,301 lots, showing an increase in volume compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,181 yuan, and the high was 3,230 yuan. It closed at 3,195 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan or 0.87%. The short-term moving average fell below the 5-day, 30-day, and 60-day moving averages [1]. - The spot price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3,230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous trading day [2]. - The basis between futures and spot was 35 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The output of hot-rolled coils decreased slightly, with a weekly output of 3.0776 million tons in the week of February 13, 2026, a decrease of 0.014 million tons from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate remained at a high level of 79.14%, indicating strong production resilience of long-process steel mills [4]. - **Demand**: Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, terminal demand significantly shrank, and the apparent consumption continued to weaken. Before the festival, the inventory trend changed from destocking to stockpiling, and the supply-demand contradiction shifted to the circulation link [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory accumulation accelerated, and the pressure was concentrated on the social side. As of February 13, 2026, the national social inventory of hot-rolled coils was 2.8045 million tons, an increase of 0.0212 million tons from the previous week; the steel mill inventory was 0.7875 million tons, an increase of 0.015 million tons from the previous week; the total inventory reached 3.592 million tons, showing an obvious accumulation compared to before the festival [4]. - **Policy**: Domestically, as the "14th Five-Year Plan" is about to start and the Two Sessions are approaching, market expectations for policies such as infrastructure investment, equipment renewal, and trade-in are rising, but the actual project implementation rhythm after the festival is unclear. Internationally, the United States imposed a 10% tariff on imported goods starting from February 24, triggering concerns about global trade frictions and potentially suppressing export-oriented steel products. The People's Bank of China conducted a 1 trillion yuan 6-month outright repurchase on February 13, releasing medium- and long-term liquidity and providing marginal support to market sentiment [5]. Market Driving Factors Analysis - **Bullish factors**: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment) [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro disturbances [6].