2025 年 11 月 24 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 黄金、白银期货将偏强震荡 碳酸锂期 货将震荡偏弱 纯碱、原油、豆粕期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货大概率将偏强震荡：IF2512 阻力位 4457 和 4511 点，支撑位 4400 和 4369 点；IH2512 阻力位 2968 和 2994 点，支撑位 2979 和 2963 点；IC2512 阻力位 6872 和 6970 点，支撑位 6700 和 6622 点；IM2512 阻 力位 ...

中辉期货钢材周报 钢价区间波动，等待矛盾积累 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 报告日期：2025/11/21 分析师：陈为昌 中辉黑色研究团队 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 李卫东 F0201351 观点摘要 【市场概况】：本周黑色板块表现继续分化，螺纹主力合约周涨0.1%，热卷涨0.4%，铁矿涨1.7%，焦炭跌3.3% ，焦煤跌7.5%，煤焦延续偏弱表现。供需层面看，螺纹钢和热卷产量及需求环比回升。库存有所下降，库存去 化速度较前期有所好转。铁水数据持稳，钢厂主动减限产意愿不强，11月铁水或偏稳运行。螺纹热卷基差较 同期相比处于中性水平，基差修复驱动有限。宏观题材缺乏，前期提供支撑的焦煤供给端有所松动，期货价格 率先走弱。 【策略建议】：钢材行情延续平淡走势，房地产、基建、家电等下游需求数据进一步走弱，黑色整体行情仍然 受弱需求压制。短期看，钢材库存、成本、基差等矛盾均比较有限，难以提供向上或向下的强驱动。原料补库 的向上驱动与产业负反馈的向下驱动或成为下一阶段行情博弈的焦点，等待矛盾积累过程中，行情或维持区间 窄幅波动。 【风险与关注】：政策动态、铁水 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US September non - farm data was mixed, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, and the market's expectation of a December rate cut was further dampened. The Fed's internal differences persisted, and the overall tone was hawkish. The risk appetite was generally weak. Domestically, the A - share market fell across the board with shrinking trading volume, and the bond market showed a differentiated trend [2][3]. - For precious metals, the strong non - farm employment data and the strengthening of the US dollar index and the cooling of the Fed's rate - cut expectation put double pressure on the prices of gold and silver, and they were in a stage of adjustment [4][5]. - For copper, the rebound of the US dollar index led to an adjustment of copper prices. The macro situation and industrial fundamentals jointly affected the market, and it was expected that the short - term adjustment would continue [6][7]. - For aluminum, the strong non - farm data in the US weakened the possibility of a December rate cut by the Fed, and the aluminum price was suppressed. Although the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased significantly this week, it was difficult to sustain the continuous decline, and the Shanghai aluminum would fluctuate and consolidate [8][9]. - For other metals such as zinc, lead, tin, etc., they were all affected by factors such as macro data, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy expectations, showing different price trends such as wide - range fluctuations and shocks [12][16][18]. - For industrial products such as industrial silicon, soda ash, glass, and steel products, they were affected by factors such as production, inventory, and market demand, and their prices generally showed a trend of shock [19][25][27]. - For agricultural products such as soybean meal, palm oil, etc., they were affected by factors such as international trade, production progress, and policy expectations, and their prices fluctuated [30][34]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US added 119,000 non - farm jobs in September, significantly exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, reaching a four - year high. The August data was revised downward to negative growth. The economic data failed to eliminate the uncertainty of the December FOMC. Multiple Fed officials focused on financial stability and high - valuation risks, with a generally hawkish tone. The market currently priced the probability of no rate cut in December at about 60%. The stock market had a sharp intraday reversal, the US dollar index fluctuated around 100, the 10 - year US Treasury yield declined, and gold, copper, and oil slightly closed down [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market opened higher and closed lower, with the trading volume of the two markets shrinking to 1.72 trillion. The ChiNext and STAR Market led the decline. The debt market showed a differentiated trend. The long - term interest rate rose, and the short - term interest rate declined. There was a risk of a phased correction in the A - share market, and the debt market might fluctuate strongly in the short term [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious metal futures prices slightly corrected. The strengthening of the US dollar index and the cooling of the Fed's rate - cut expectation put double pressure on precious metal prices. The Fed's October meeting minutes showed increased differences among policymakers on a December rate cut. The US September non - farm employment data was strong, but the unemployment rate rose unexpectedly. The probability of a December rate cut was low. The US Department of Labor will combine and release the October and November employment data on December 16. It was maintained that the prices of gold and silver were in a stage of adjustment [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly, and LME copper adjusted downward. The spot market trading of electrolytic copper cooled down, and the downstream mainly made rigid purchases due to high prices. The LME inventory rose to 158,000 tons. The September non - farm employment data in the US exceeded expectations, which further suppressed the expectation of a December rate cut. The WBMS data showed a shortage of 81,000 tons of global refined copper supply in September, and China's imports of refined copper in October decreased by 22.1% year - on - year. It was expected that the copper price would continue to adjust in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,550 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The LME aluminum closed at $2,806.5/ton, down 0.28%. The strong non - farm growth in the US in September weakened the possibility of a December rate cut by the Fed, and the US dollar index rebounded strongly, putting pressure on the aluminum price. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased significantly this week, mainly because the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing at low prices increased due to the decline in the absolute price. However, it was difficult to sustain the continuous decline as consumption entered the off - season. The Shanghai aluminum would fluctuate and consolidate [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,737 yuan/ton, up 0.18%. The overall supply of alumina was still in excess, the tender purchase price of upstream electrolytic aluminum plants continued to decline, driving the spot price down. The market was dominated by a bearish atmosphere and continued to operate weakly [10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of cast aluminum alloy futures closed at 20,810 yuan/ton, down 0.12%. The cost of cast aluminum was affected by the tight supply of scrap aluminum, and the demand side still had resilience. The rigid demand procurement would support the price at the bottom, and the price of ADC12 might stabilize and fluctuate in the short term [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated horizontally during the day and opened higher at night. The inventory of zinc ingots decreased. The import volume of zinc ore and refined zinc in October decreased compared with the previous month. The LME inventory increased since early November, and the risk of a short squeeze decreased. The zinc price lacked a trend and maintained a wide - range fluctuation [12][13][14]. 3.8 Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated weakly. The import volume of lead concentrate in October decreased compared with the previous month. The social inventory decreased slightly this week. After the delivery of the current - month contract, the domestic social inventory first increased and then decreased, and the absolute inventory was still low. The supply in some regions was tight, but the demand was difficult to boost. It was expected that the lead price would maintain a shock - adjustment trend in the short term [15][16]. 3.9 Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated weakly during the day and opened slightly higher at night. The overseas tin mine复产 was slow, the domestic tin ore import volume in October still had a large year - on - year decline, and the raw material gap still existed, which restricted the release of refined tin production. The performance of NVIDIA exceeded expectations, and the AI demand still had room for imagination. However, in the short term, the Fed was likely to keep the interest rate unchanged in December, and the tin price would maintain a high - level wide - range fluctuation [17][18]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, industrial silicon fluctuated narrowly. The supply side was affected by the decline in production in the southwest region during the dry season, and the supply margin decreased. The demand side was affected by factors such as the weakening of the market sentiment of polysilicon and the over - supply of battery cells. The market sentiment was repeated, and it was expected that the industrial silicon price would fluctuate within a range in the short term [19][20]. 3.11 Carbonate Lithium - On Thursday, the price of carbonate lithium fluctuated widely, and the spot price rose. The exchange introduced a position - limit policy, which suppressed the bullish sentiment. The downstream purchasing was mainly for rigid demand, and the consumption still had an increase. The fundamental situation had not shown signs of weakness, but the bullish sentiment was cautious, and the lithium price might fluctuate widely [21][22]. 3.12 Nickel - On Thursday, the nickel price was weak. The Fed officials' hawkish remarks dampened the expectation of a December rate cut. The cost of nickel ore remained high, squeezing the upstream profit. The demand for nickel sulfate entered the off - season, and the price declined. It was expected that the nickel price would fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the strength of cost support [23][24]. 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - On Thursday, the main contract of soda ash fluctuated, and the main contract of glass fluctuated weakly. The production of soda ash decreased, the opening rate declined, but the shipment volume increased, driving the inventory to decrease. The glass fundamentals were relatively weak, with the upstream opening rate decreasing and the enterprise inventory still accumulating. There were rumors that the real - estate industry might receive policy support, and it was expected that the prices would fluctuate at a low level [25][26]. 3.14 Steel Products (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures fluctuated. The output and apparent demand of the five major steel products increased, and the inventory decline widened. However, the downstream steel entered the consumption off - season, the outdoor construction decreased, and the supply pressure of hot - rolled coils remained high. It was expected that the steel price would fluctuate [27]. 3.15 Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron - ore futures fluctuated. The supply of iron ore was under pressure, and the demand side had a short - term recovery in iron - water production, but the medium - term production - reduction expectation remained unchanged. It was expected that the iron - ore price would fluctuate under pressure [28]. 3.16 Coking Coal and Coke - On Thursday, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated weakly. The coking profit rebounded significantly this week, the demand for coking coal was restricted, and the mine production capacity utilization rate increased. It was expected that the prices would fluctuate weakly [29]. 3.17 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, soybean - meal and rapeseed - meal futures declined. China continued to purchase US soybeans, and the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans was lagging. The external - market price declined, and the import - cost support weakened. It was expected that the short - term soybean - meal price would fluctuate [30][31]. 3.18 Palm Oil - On Thursday, palm - oil futures declined. The US non - farm data was contradictory, the international oil price declined, the export demand of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of November decreased, and the sentiment of the US biodiesel policy cooled down. It was expected that the palm - oil price would fluctuate in the short term [32][34].

2025 年 11 月 20 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、白银期货将偏强震荡 碳酸锂期 货将震荡偏强 原油、燃料油期货将震荡偏弱 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货大概率将震荡整理：IF2512 阻力位 4592 和 4611 点，支撑位 4530 和 4520 点；IH2512 阻力位 3030 和 3041 点，支撑位 2998 和 2979 点；IC2512 阻力位 7100 和 7129 点，支撑位 7006 和 6948 点；IM2512 阻 力位 7 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on November 19, 2025, including whether they will be strongly or weakly volatile, and provides corresponding resistance and support levels [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro News and Trading Tips - Premier Li Qiang called for free trade and strengthened cooperation in the SCO, and met with Russian President Putin. China - Japan diplomatic consultations were held, and China expressed dissatisfaction with the results. The US modified patent rules, which China responded to as discriminatory. Hainan Free Trade Port is about to be fully closed, and policies for high - standard digital parks were released. Unemployment data for different age groups in October was announced. False information about the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area was refuted. Trump mentioned the selection of the next Fed chair. Saudi Arabia promised to increase investment in the US. A bill related to Epstein may pass in the US Senate. US employment data showed a decline in private - sector jobs, and initial and continuing jobless claims were reported [8][9][10]. 2. Commodity Futures - Related Information - The trading and intraday closing fees for the lithium carbonate futures LC2601 contract will be adjusted on November 20. On November 18, international precious metal futures generally fell, oil futures rose, and London base metals fell. The EU plans to restrict waste aluminum exports, and India's gold imports in October reached a record high. Exchange rates and the performance of the on - shore and offshore RMB against the US dollar were also reported [11][12][13]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Stock Index Futures - On November 18, major stock index futures contracts such as IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 generally opened slightly lower, rebounded and then declined. They faced resistance and continued to have a slight increase in downward pressure. It is expected that on November 19, stock index futures will be strongly volatile, and in November 2025, they will have a wide - range volatile trend [13][14][19]. Treasury Bond Futures - On November 18, the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures contracts opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly and strengthened. The central bank conducted 4075 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 37 billion yuan. It is expected that on November 19, both contracts will have a wide - range volatile trend [39][42][44]. Gold Futures - On November 18, the gold futures contract AU2512 opened slightly higher, rebounded and then declined, with increased downward pressure. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contract will be strongly volatile in a wide range, and on November 19, the AU2512 contract will be strongly volatile [44][45]. Silver Futures - On November 18, the silver futures contract AG2602 opened slightly higher, fluctuated weakly and declined, with significantly increased downward pressure. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contract will be strongly volatile in a wide range and may hit a record high, and on November 19, the AG2602 contract will be weakly strong [53][54]. Copper Futures - On November 18, the copper futures contract CU2512 opened slightly lower, fluctuated and declined, with increased downward pressure. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contract will have a wide - range volatile trend, and on November 19, the CU2601 contract will be strongly volatile [57]. Aluminum Futures - On November 18, the aluminum futures contract AL2601 opened slightly lower, fluctuated and declined, with increased downward pressure. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contract will be strongly volatile in a wide range, and on November 19, the AL2601 contract will be strongly volatile [64]. Alumina Futures - On November 18, the alumina futures contract AO2601 opened flat, fluctuated and declined, with increased downward pressure. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contract will have a wide - range volatile trend, and on November 19, the AO2601 contract will fluctuate and consolidate [69]. Polysilicon Futures - On November 18, the polysilicon futures contract PS2601 opened with a gap down, fluctuated weakly, with increased downward pressure. It is expected that on November 19, the PS2601 contract will have a wide - range volatile trend [74]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - On November 18, the lithium carbonate futures contract LC2601 opened slightly higher, fluctuated and declined, with increased upward space and downward pressure. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contract will be weakly strong, and on November 19, the LC2601 contract will be strongly volatile [74][75]. Rebar Futures - On November 18, the rebar futures contract RB2601 opened slightly higher, fluctuated and declined, with a slight increase in downward pressure. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contract will have a wide - range volatile trend, and on November 19, the RB2601 contract will be weakly volatile [80]. Hot - Rolled Coil Futures - On November 18, the hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2601 opened slightly lower, fluctuated and declined, with a slight increase in downward pressure. It is expected that on November 19, the HC2601 contract will be weakly volatile [85]. Iron Ore Futures - On November 18, the iron ore futures contract I2601 opened slightly lower, fluctuated and rose slightly. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contract will be weakly volatile in a wide range, and on November 19, the I2601 contract will be weakly volatile [88]. Coking Coal Futures - On November 18, the coking coal futures contract JM2601 opened slightly lower, fluctuated weakly and declined, with significantly increased downward pressure. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contract will be weakly volatile in a wide range, and on November 19, the JM2601 contract will be weakly volatile [94][95]. Glass Futures - On November 18, the glass futures contract FG601 opened slightly higher, fluctuated and declined, with increased downward pressure. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contract will be weakly volatile, and on November 19, the FG601 contract will be weakly volatile [97]. Soda Ash Futures - On November 18, the soda ash futures contract SA601 opened slightly higher, fluctuated and declined, with increased downward pressure. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contract will be weakly volatile in a wide range, and on November 19, the SA601 contract will be weakly volatile [102][103]. Crude Oil Futures - On November 18, the crude oil futures contract SC2601 opened slightly lower, fluctuated and declined slightly, with a slight increase in downward pressure. It is expected that in November 2025, the main continuous contract will have a wide - range volatile trend, and on November 19, the SC2601 contract will be strongly volatile [106]. Fuel Oil Futures - On November 18, the fuel oil futures contract FU2601 opened slightly higher, fluctuated and declined, with increased downward pressure. It is expected that on November 19, the FU2601 contract will have a wide - range volatile trend [110]. PTA Futures - On November 18, the PTA futures contract TA601 opened slightly higher, fluctuated and declined slightly, with a slight increase in downward pressure. It is expected that on November 19, the TA601 contract will be strongly volatile [112]. PVC Futures - On November 18, the PVC futures contract V2601 opened slightly lower, fluctuated and declined, with increased downward pressure. It is expected that on November 19, the V2601 contract will be weakly volatile [113]. Methanol Futures - On November 18, the methanol futures contract MA601 opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly and strengthened, with a slight increase in downward space. It is expected that on November 19, the MA601 contract will be weakly volatile [116]. Soybean Meal Futures - On November 18, the soybean meal futures contract M2601 opened slightly higher, fluctuated and declined slightly, with a slight increase in downward pressure. It is expected that on November 19, the M2601 contract will be weakly volatile [118]. Soybean Oil Futures - On November 18, the soybean oil futures contract Y2601 opened slightly higher, fluctuated and rose slightly. It is expected that on November 19, the Y2601 contract will be strongly volatile [119]. Palm Oil Futures - On November 18, the palm oil futures contract P2601 opened slightly higher, fluctuated and rose slightly. It is expected that on November 19, the P2601 contract will be strongly volatile [122]. Natural Rubber Futures - On November 18, the natural rubber futures contract RU2601 opened flat, fluctuated and declined slightly, with a slight increase in downward pressure. It is expected that on November 19, the RU2601 contract will be strongly volatile [124].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas risk appetite is continuously contracting, and the domestic stock and bond markets are both weak. There is a risk of a phased correction in the A - share market, and the bond market is likely to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern in the short term [2][3]. - The resumption of US official data may intensify short - term fluctuations in precious metals prices, and attention should be paid to the Fed's meeting minutes and non - farm payrolls report [4][5]. - There are risks in the artificial intelligence bubble, and copper prices will continue to adjust. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to adjust, and alumina will maintain a weak and volatile state [6][7][8]. - Cast aluminum prices will follow the market for a correction with limited amplitude. Zinc prices have support below, and lead price declines will slow down. Tin prices will oscillate in the short term and have room for growth in the long term [11][12][13]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to enter a weak and volatile phase. Lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate widely, and nickel prices will be in a weak and volatile state [15][16][17]. - The prices of soda ash and glass will oscillate at a low level. Steel prices will oscillate, and iron ore prices will mainly oscillate. Coking coal and coke prices will oscillate weakly [21][22][23]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices will oscillate, and palm oil prices will oscillate and strengthen in the short term [27][28][29]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: US employment data is weak, risk appetite is contracting, the US dollar index is oscillating strongly, US bond yields are falling, US stocks are generally down, and gold and oil prices are rising while copper prices are falling. Attention should be paid to non - farm payrolls data and technology sector earnings reports this week [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market has fallen for three consecutive days, the two - market trading volume remains above 1.9 trillion yuan, and small - cap stocks have adjusted more significantly. The margin balance has cooled down, and there is a risk of a phased correction. The bond market is also weak, and the long - term interest rate has risen slightly, maintaining a volatile pattern [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Tuesday, international precious metal futures prices first declined and then rose. The latest US employment data is weak, which boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. The resumption of official data may intensify short - term price fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the Fed's meeting minutes and non - farm payrolls report [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper and LME copper both adjusted downward. There are risks in the artificial intelligence bubble. More Fed officials are questioning the December interest rate cut. With the end of the government shutdown, attention should be paid to unemployment claims and CPI data. Copper prices are expected to maintain a high - level decline in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum prices both fell. The US initial jobless claims reached a two - month high, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has slightly increased. The market is waiting for more key data. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to adjust [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the alumina futures price fell. The spot price has declined, and the expectation of production cuts has increased. However, there is still an oversupply in reality, and it will maintain a low - level and volatile state [9][10]. 3.6 Cast Aluminum - On Tuesday, the cast aluminum alloy futures price fell. The cost side has support, the supply has little change, the demand is stable, and the price will follow the market for a correction with limited amplitude [11]. 3.7 Zinc - On Tuesday, Shanghai zinc and LME zinc showed different trends. The US employment data is poor, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has slightly increased, and the market is waiting for NVIDIA's earnings report. Zinc prices have support below, and the short - term price trend depends on the macro situation [12]. 3.8 Lead - On Tuesday, Shanghai lead and LME lead both showed a weak trend. Affected by the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and LME inventory accumulation, lead prices have support from the cost side and slow inventory accumulation, and the decline will slow down [13]. 3.9 Tin - On Tuesday, Shanghai tin and LME tin oscillated. The US dollar is strong, and the market is waiting for more macro guidance. There are concerns about the supply side, and the demand is strong. Tin prices will oscillate in the short term and have room for growth in the long term [14]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, industrial silicon oscillated narrowly. The supply side has a marginal convergence, the demand side is weak, and the price is expected to enter a weak and volatile phase [15][16]. 3.11 Lithium Carbonate - On Tuesday, lithium carbonate prices oscillated downward, and the spot price rose. The futures market has strong selling pressure, and the spot trading is poor. With the arrival of imported resources, the supply shortage may be alleviated, and the price will fluctuate widely [17][18]. 3.12 Nickel - On Tuesday, nickel prices were weak. The terminal demand is low, the inventory is at an absolute high, and the price is expected to be in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to changes in upstream supply [19][20]. 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - On Tuesday, the prices of soda ash and glass futures both oscillated weakly. The downstream demand is not improving, and the prices will oscillate at a low level [21][22]. 3.14 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Tuesday, steel futures oscillated. The spot market trading and prices are stable, the supply pressure has decreased after steel mill production cuts, but the demand is still weak, and steel prices will oscillate [23][24]. 3.15 Iron Ore - On Tuesday, iron ore futures oscillated. The port inventory has slightly decreased, the supply is still high, the demand has a short - term rebound but the medium - term reduction expectation remains unchanged, and the price will mainly oscillate [25]. 3.16 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - On Tuesday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated weakly. The coal mine production has increased, the coke price increase has limited improvement in coking enterprise losses, and the downstream demand is expected to weaken. The price will oscillate weakly [26]. 3.17 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, bean and rapeseed meal futures fell. China has purchased 792,000 tons of US soybeans. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the Brazilian soybean sowing progress is over 90%. The supply is loose, and the price will oscillate [27][28]. 3.18 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, palm oil futures rose. The US biodiesel policy may exceed market expectations, and India's vegetable oil inventory is at a low level, with potential import demand. Palm oil prices will oscillate and strengthen in the short term [29][30].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 螺卷早报（2025-11-17） 每日观点 螺纹： 1、基本面：需求不见起色，库存低位回升，贸易商采购意愿仍不强，地产行业继续处下行周期；偏空 2、基差：螺纹现货价3190，基差137；偏多 3、库存：全国35个主要城市库存415.75万吨，环比减少，同比增加；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线走平；偏空 5、主力持仓：螺纹主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：房地产市场依旧偏弱，需求降温，国内有去产能的计划冲击市场，震荡偏空思路对待 利多： 产量维持低位，现货升水，国内去产能预期。 利空： 下游地产行业下行周期延续，终端需求继续弱势运行低于同期。 利多： 需求尚可，现货升水，国内去产能预期。 利空： 下游需求步入季节性淡季，预期悲观 ...

中辉期货钢材周报 短期区间波动 等待行情驱动 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 报告日期：2025/11/14 分析师：陈为昌 中辉黑色研究团队 陈为昌 Z0019850 李海蓉 Z0015849 李卫东 F0201351 观点摘要 【市场概况】：本周黑色板块表现略有分化，螺纹主力合约周涨0.6%，热卷涨0.3%，铁矿涨1.6%，焦炭跌5% ，焦煤跌6.1%，前期偏强的煤焦有所走弱。供需层面看，螺纹钢和热卷产量及需求环比均回落 ，体现淡季特 征，并无意外。热卷库存以及华东螺纹钢库存继续逆季节性上升，构成现实层面的压力。宏观数据仍然不佳， 房地产、基建投资增速维持弱势。前期提供支撑的焦煤供给端有所松动，政策层面对保供的强调令市场预期出 现变化。 【策略建议】：近期钢材行情较平淡，较低的价格体现了偏弱的基本面，行情进一步发展需要新的逻辑支撑。 宏观与反内卷暂告一段落，原料补库的向上驱动与产业负反馈的向下驱动或成为下一阶段行情博弈的焦点。螺 纹钢01合约在3000附近遇到支撑，短期或有技术性反弹，但在基本面压制下，行情高度预计有限。 【风险与关注】：政策动态、铁水产量变化、炉料端扰动等 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on November 14, 2025, including weak and volatile trends for stock index futures, gold, silver, and tin futures, etc. [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On November 14, it is expected to be weakly volatile. For IF2512, resistance levels are 4689 and 4741 points, support levels are 4636 and 4604 points; for IH2512, resistance levels are 3080 and 3100 points, support levels are 3041 and 3029 points; for IC2512, resistance levels are 7289 and 7350 points, support levels are 7183 and 7117 points; for IM2512, resistance levels are 7519 and 7600 points, support levels are 7419 and 7319 points. In November 2025, all four major stock index futures contracts are expected to be broadly volatile. [2][18] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On November 14, the ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 is expected to be broadly volatile, with support levels at 108.37 and 108.31 yuan, resistance levels at 108.54 and 108.62 yuan; the thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 is also expected to be broadly volatile, with support levels at 116.0 and 115.8 yuan, resistance levels at 116.5 and 116.8 yuan. [3][37][40] - **Precious Metal Futures**: On November 14, gold futures contract AU2512 and silver futures contract AG2512 are expected to be weakly volatile. In November 2025, both the gold and silver futures continuous contracts are expected to be strongly and broadly volatile. [41][48][49] - **Base Metal Futures**: On November 14, copper futures contract CU2512 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate; aluminum futures contract AL2601 is expected to be broadly volatile and attempt to break through resistance levels; alumina futures contract AO2601 is expected to be broadly volatile; tin futures contract SN2512 is expected to be weakly volatile. In November 2025, copper, aluminum, and tin futures continuous contracts are expected to be strongly and broadly volatile. [53][59][67] - **Other Commodity Futures**: On November 14, polycrystalline silicon futures contract PS2601 is expected to be broadly volatile and attempt to break through resistance levels; lithium carbonate futures contract LC2601 is expected to be broadly volatile; rebar futures contract RB2601 and hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2601 are expected to fluctuate and consolidate; iron ore futures contract I2601 is expected to be broadly volatile; coking coal futures contract JM2601 is expected to be broadly volatile; glass futures contract FG601 and soda ash futures contract SA601 are expected to be weakly volatile; crude oil futures contract SC2512, PTA futures contract TA601, and PVC futures contract V2601 are expected to be strongly volatile. [71][74][80] Macro News and Trading Tips - China is reported to agree to buy about 12 million tons of US soybeans in November and December 2025, and at least 25 million tons per year for the next three years. China is also designing a new rare - earth export licensing system. [8] - The total social financing scale increment in China in the first ten months of 2025 is 30.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared with the same period last year. As of the end of October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock is 8.5%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 is 8.2%, both down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. [8] - The US government ends the shutdown, but the release of economic data is affected. The IMF expects the US Q4 GDP growth rate to be lower than the previously predicted 1.9%. [10] - The UK's Q3 GDP grows only 0.1% quarter - on - quarter, with a 0.1% contraction in September due to the decline in manufacturing offsetting the weak growth in services. [11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The document does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to face some pressure, maintain a cautious stance [6][7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: Low risk of significant decline, consider taking long positions opportunistically [8][9]. - **Precious Metals**: Temporarily observe and wait for long - entry opportunities [10][11]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: Prices may remain weak in the medium - term, investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds [12]. - **Iron Ore**: Market supply - demand pattern weakens, focus on short - selling opportunities at high levels [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Consider buying on dips [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: Short - term supply surplus may continue, consider long positions at low levels when spot falls into the loss range [20]. - **Crude Oil**: Temporarily observe the main contract [23]. - **Fuel Oil**: Temporarily observe the main contract [25]. - **Polyolefins**: Focus on long - entry opportunities [27]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Expected to oscillate [30]. - **Natural Rubber**: Focus on long - entry opportunities [31]. - **PVC**: Focus on changes in the supply side [34]. - **Urea**: Limited downside space [36]. - **PX**: May oscillate and adjust, with support at the bottom, consider trading within the range [37]. - **PTA**: May oscillate, treat with caution and control risks [38]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: May face pressure in the short - term, focus on port inventory and supply changes [39]. - **Short Fibers**: May oscillate following costs, control risks [41]. - **Bottle Chips**: Expected to oscillate following the cost side, control risks [42]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [43]. - **Copper**: Expected to oscillate at high levels [44][45]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to run at high levels [46][47]. - **Zinc**: Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy [48][49]. - **Lead**: Expected to oscillate strongly [50][51]. - **Tin**: Expected to oscillate strongly [52][53]. - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate [54]. - **Soybean Oil and Meal**: For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise; for soybean oil, consider long positions at the low - cost support range [56]. - **Palm Oil**: Consider buying on dips [58]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Oil**: For rapeseed meal, consider a buy - near and sell - far strategy [61]. - **Cotton**: Expected to be weak in the short - term, with long - term benefits from the suspension of additional tariffs [63]. - **Sugar**: Expected to oscillate [68]. - **Apples**: Expected to run strongly [70]. - **Hogs**: Consider short - selling on rebounds, paying attention to consumption changes [72]. - **Eggs**: Hold short positions, pay attention to changes in elimination sentiment and short - term cost collapse [74]. - **Corn and Starch**: For corn, it is advisable to wait and see; corn starch may follow the corn market [76][77]. 3. Summary by Category Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: All treasury bond futures contracts closed lower in the previous trading day. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.26% to 116.130 yuan, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.10% to 108.410 yuan, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.08% to 105.885 yuan, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.01% to 102.462 yuan [5]. - **Macro Data**: In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 30.9 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of October, M2 balance was 335.13 trillion yuan, up 8.2% year - on - year; M1 balance was 112 trillion yuan, up 6.2% year - on - year; M0 balance was 13.55 trillion yuan, up 10.6% year - on - year [6]. - **Outlook**: The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond futures are expected to face pressure [6]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: Stock index futures showed mixed performance in the previous trading day. The main contract of CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) rose 1.06%, the main contract of SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.81%, the main contract of CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) rose 1.71%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) rose 1.67% [8]. - **Outlook**: The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but asset valuations are low, and the risk of significant decline is small. Consider taking long positions opportunistically [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Gold main contract closed at 961.22, up 1.63%, and closed at 956.96 at night; silver main contract closed at 12,588, up 4.27%, and closed at 12405 at night [10]. - **Factors**: The end of the US government shutdown, complex global trade and financial environment, central bank gold - buying, and possible Fed rate cuts are positive factors, but the recent sharp rise and high valuation suggest waiting for long - entry opportunities [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Performance**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed weak oscillations in the previous trading day. The spot price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 2940 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3060 - 3210 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3250 - 3270 yuan/ton [12]. - **Supply - Demand**: Long - term real estate decline affects rebar demand, but there is a slight improvement in the medium - term. Steel mill production has decreased, but inventory is higher than last year. Hot - rolled coils may follow the same trend [12]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: Iron ore futures oscillated in the previous trading day. PB powder port spot price was 781 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder was 680 yuan/ton [14]. - **Supply - Demand**: Iron ore demand has declined, supply has increased, and port inventory has risen, weakening the market pattern [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated in the previous trading day [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: Coking coal supply is slightly tight, and demand for high - price goods has decreased. Coke supply has decreased due to environmental protection and cost factors, and demand from steel mills has weakened [17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: Manganese silicon main contract fell 0.24% to 5756 yuan/ton, and silicon iron main contract rose 0.22% to 5506 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply - Demand**: Manganese ore supply has changed, and the cost of ferroalloys has increased. Production is high, demand is weak, and supply is in surplus in the short - term [19][20]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: INE crude oil fell sharply in the previous trading day due to a pessimistic OPEC monthly report [21]. - **Factors**: OPEC predicts supply - demand balance in 2026, and the US government shutdown has affected data release. The purchase of crude oil by the US Energy Department provides some support [21][22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: Fuel oil fell sharply in the previous trading day, following the decline of crude oil [24]. - **Factors**: Market expects sufficient supply, sanctions on Russia and reduced Sino - US trade friction are positive, but the sharp fall in crude oil prices has an impact [25]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: Hangzhou PP market prices mostly fell, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao market was adjusted [26]. - **Supply - Demand**: Some enterprises had delayed production, and e - commerce orders increased temporarily, but new orders may be insufficient after the e - commerce event [26]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: Synthetic rubber main contract rose 0.91%, and the price in Shandong was adjusted to 11300 yuan/ton [28]. - **Supply - Demand**: Raw material prices have fallen, supply is tight in some areas, and demand and inventory have changed [28][29]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: Natural rubber main contract rose 0.56%, and 20 - type rubber main contract rose 0.12%. The Shanghai spot price was stable at around 14850 yuan/ton [30]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is affected by weather and factory procurement, demand has slightly increased, and inventory has decreased [30]. PVC - **Market Performance**: PVC main contract rose 0.02%, and the spot price was stable [32]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply exceeds demand, and the price may have limited downward space and needs fundamental improvement [32]. Urea - **Market Performance**: Urea main contract rose 0.36%, and the price in Shandong Linyi was adjusted to 1580 yuan/ton [35]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply has slightly increased, demand is affected by environmental protection and agricultural factors, and inventory is higher than expected [35]. PX - **Market Performance**: PX main contract rose 0.86%, and PXN spread was adjusted to 240 dollars/ton [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply has slightly decreased, and the short - term supply - demand structure has improved [37]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PTA2601 main contract rose 0.64%, and the processing fee was adjusted to around 170 yuan/ton [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply has changed due to plant operations, and demand from the polyester industry is stable [38]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: Ethylene glycol main contract fell 0.77%, and the inventory in East China ports has increased [39]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply has decreased slightly due to maintenance, but port arrivals have increased, and demand support is limited [39]. Short Fibers - **Market Performance**: Short fiber 2602 main contract fell 0.45%, and the processing fee was adjusted to around 1100 yuan/ton [40][41]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is at a relatively high level, demand has little change, and cost - driven factors are strengthening [41]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: Bottle chip 2601 main contract fell 0.35%, and the processing fee was adjusted to around 420 yuan/ton [42]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply has decreased, and export growth has slowed down, but it remains at a high level [42]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract rose 1.39% to 87840 yuan/ton [43]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is at a high level, and demand from the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved, and inventory has decreased [43]. Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper main contract closed at 87400 yuan/ton, up 0.08% [44]. - **Supply - Demand**: Global copper mine supply is tight, production is affected, and demand is mixed. The price may oscillate at a high level [44]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 22100 yuan/ton, up 0.5%; alumina main contract closed at 2834 yuan/ton, down 0.11% [46]. - **Supply - Demand**: Alumina supply is abundant, and aluminum production may be affected by the heating season. Demand is differentiated, and the price may run at a high level [46]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 22635 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [48]. - **Supply - Demand**: Zinc concentrate processing fees are under pressure, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The price may oscillate within a range [48]. Lead - **Market Performance**: Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17585 yuan/ton, down 0.04% [50]. - **Supply - Demand**: Lead concentrate processing fees are under pressure, and demand has recovered, but high prices may affect production. Inventory has increased slightly [50]. Tin - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell 0.74% to 294500 yuan/ton [52]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply is tight due to slow mine复产 and strict regulations in Indonesia. Demand shows some resilience, and the price may oscillate strongly [52][53]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The main contract fell 0.66% to 118050 yuan/ton [54]. - **Supply - Demand**: Nickel ore price is stable, but downstream demand is weak, and inventory is relatively high. The price may oscillate [54]. Soybean Oil and Meal - **Market Performance**: Soybean meal main contract rose 0.59% to 3071 yuan/ton, and soybean oil main contract rose 0.60% to 8316 yuan/ton [55]. - **Supply - Demand**: Brazilian soybean planting progress is slow, and domestic soybean supply is abundant. Feed demand is expected to grow moderately [55][56]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil reversed losses and closed slightly higher [57]. - **Supply - Demand**: Production in Malaysia and Indonesia is expected to increase, and exports in Malaysia have decreased. Domestic inventory is at a medium level [57]. Rapeseed Meal and Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed prices rose, and domestic rapeseed and related product prices changed [60]. - **Supply - Demand**: Domestic rapeseed inventory is at a low level, and rapeseed meal and oil inventories are at high levels [60]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: Domestic Zhengzhou cotton fell slightly, and international cotton prices were under seasonal pressure [62]. - **Supply - Demand**: Domestic cotton production is expected to be high, and textile exports are relatively stable. International cotton prices lack upward momentum [62][63]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: Zhengzhou sugar rose with increased positions, and international raw sugar fell [65]. - **Supply - Demand**: Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and domestic production and imports may put pressure on prices [65][67]. Apples - **Market Performance**: Domestic apple futures rose with increased positions [69]. - **Supply - Demand**: Late - maturing apple quality is poor, inventory is lower than last year, and prices are stable and firm [69]. Hogs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of hogs was 11.65 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan [71]. - **Supply - Demand**: Supply may increase in the second half of the month, and consumption improvement is limited [71][72]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production areas was 2.96 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan, and in the main sales areas was 3.26 yuan/jin, unchanged [73]. - **Supply - Demand**: Egg production is at a high level, but supply may improve marginally, and demand may remain weak [73][74]. Corn and Starch - **Market Performance**: Corn main contract rose 0.37% to 2186 yuan/ton, and corn starch main contract rose 0.68% to 2507 yuan/ton [75]. - **Supply - Demand**: Corn supply is abundant, and demand is growing slightly. Corn starch may follow the corn market [76][77].