Workflow
热卷期货
icon
Search documents
股指期货将震荡整理黄金、白银、铜期货将偏强宽幅震荡螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、玻璃、纯碱、豆油、棕榈油期货将偏强震荡原油、PTA、PVC期货将偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 02:03
陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号:Z0000372 邮箱:taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 2025 年 10 月 10 日 股指期货将震荡整理 黄金、白银、铜期货将偏强宽幅震荡 螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、玻璃、纯碱、豆油、棕榈油期货 将偏强震荡 原油、PTA、PVC 期货将偏弱震荡 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限,若给您造成不 便,敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者,请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介,亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险,不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析,预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下: 股指期货将震荡整理:IF2512 阻力位 4730 和 4750 点,支撑位 4689 和 4660 点;IH2512 阻力位 3040 和 3060 点,支撑位 3020 和 3003 点;IC2512 阻力位 7500 和 7550 点,支撑位 7 ...
螺纹钢、热卷产业险管理日报-20251009
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 13:44
螺纹钢、热卷产业风险管理日报 2025/10/09 严志妮 投资咨询证号:Z0022076 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 螺纹价格区间预测 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | | | | 为了防止存货叠加损失,可以根据企业的库存情 | RB2501 | | 30% | 3130-3 200 | | 库存 | 产成品库存偏高,担心 | | 况,做空螺纹或是热卷期货来锁定利润,弥补企 业的生产成本 | | 卖出 | | 3300-3 | | 管理 | 钢材价格下跌 | 多 | | HC2501 | | 30% | 350 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权降低资金成本,若钢价上涨还可以 锁定现货卖出价格 | RB2601C3400 | 卖出 | 20% | 30-40 | | 管理 | | | 为了防止钢材价格上涨而抬升采购成本,可以在 | RB2601 | | ...
南华期货早评-20251009
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 02:11
金融期货早评 宏观:国内需求端仍是核心症结 【市场资讯】1)美联储纪要:多数官员称今年继续宽松可能适宜,少数人本来可能支持 9 月不降息。2)美国政府关门逾一周还无解:参议院第六次否决两党临时拨款议案。3)美 国国会预算办公室:上财年美国联邦政府预算赤字 1.8 万亿美元,与 2024 财年近乎持平。 4)普京:必须确保特别军事行动设定的所有目标都无条件实现。俄副外长:俄美元首会晤 推力已基本耗尽,"战斧"导弹可致局势本质变化。5)消息人士称哈马斯已同意加沙停火协 议,特朗普:以色列与哈马斯已签署"20 点计划"第一阶段协议,本周末或去中东。 【核心逻辑】国内方面,国庆假期人员出行整体表现不弱。假期第六天,全社会跨区域人 员流动量 29819.42 万人次,环比增长 2.4%,同比增长 7%;假期前半程交通出行人数再创 新高,水路、民航旅客发送量亦实现增长。不过,国庆假期整体出行情况或不及五一假期。 整体来看,后续经济修复的关键仍需聚焦居民需求端。当前,供需两端政策正逐步推进, 后续或仍有增量政策出台,以推动物价平稳回升。需注意的是,政策出台的关键触发因素 或为经济数据超预期下滑,且政策基调仍以托底为主。而海 ...
建信期货钢材日评-20250930
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 03:08
021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3033782 投资咨询证书号:Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 报告类型 钢材日评 日期 2025 年 9 月 30 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员:翟贺攀 研究员:聂嘉怡 研究员:冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 表1:9月29日钢材期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况(单位:元/吨、%、手、亿元) 合约 代码 前收 盘价 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 涨跌幅 成交量 持仓量 持仓量 变化 资金流 入流出 RB2601 3114 3115 3117 3097 3097 -1.34% 1,145,688 1,926,639 -49,906 -1.32 HC2601 3313 3313 3320 3288 3289 -1.23% 517,716 1,384,470 -6, ...
中辉期货热卷早报-20250930
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 02:31
| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 螺纹表需环比好转,产量持平,库存继续降低,供需出现积极变化,但降库速度仍然有 | | 螺纹钢 | 谨慎看空 | 待观察。铁水产量继续上升,钢材整体供应水平较高。整体来看,建筑钢材下游需求仍 | | ★ | | 然未出现明显改善,房地产及基建表现仍然形成拖累,供需驱动力量有限,宏观事件兑 | | | | 现后情绪有所降温,整体维持区间运行。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷表需变化不大,产量小幅回落,库存略增,总体变化不大,供需相对平稳,矛盾不 | | | 谨慎看空 | 大。铁水产量继续回升,钢材整体需求仍然偏弱,供需层面缺少向上驱动,整体维持区 | | ★ | | 间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | | 铁水产量再增,钢厂、港口库存双增,节前补库接近尾声,假期钢企生产积极性仍然较 | | ★ | 轻多参与 | 强,外矿发运有回落预期,基本面持续支撑价格,建议多单轻仓参与。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭进入提涨阶段,焦钢博弈明显。焦企利润尚可,现货生产相对稳定。焦炭产量环比 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 略降,但库存有所增加。铁水产 ...
负反馈压力在不断积蓄 热卷行情呈现震荡下行走势
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-09-28 07:02
目前来看,热卷行情呈现震荡下行走势,盘面表现偏弱。对于热卷后市行情将如何运行,相关机构观点 汇总如下: 9月26日夜盘,国内期市黑色金属板块全线飘绿。其中,热卷期货主力合约开盘报3313.00元/吨,盘中 低位震荡运行;截至收盘,热卷主力最高触及3320.00元,下方探低3300.00元,跌幅达0.87%。 国都期货指出,热轧产量小幅下降,周环比下降2.30万吨,华北钢厂产线检修,影响部分产量,但产量 仍然维持高位。本周成交情况一般,在目前高供给情况下,库存小幅增加。临近国庆假期,下游工地将 阶段性停工,补库需求或逐步结束。策略上,关注"多螺空卷"的套利机会,做多需求相对改善品种,做 空需求相对转弱品种。 西南期货分析称,热卷基本面大逻辑与螺纹钢没有明显差异,走势或与螺纹钢保持一致。从技术面来 看,钢材期货反弹空间或许有限。策略上,投资者可关注回调时的低位买入机会,注意仓位管理。 南华期货(603093)表示,当前钢材在高供应背景下需求不足的问题体现,去库存有压力,对盘面形成 明显压制,负反馈压力也在不断积蓄。不过,当前高铁水产量叠加国庆临近,原料补库需求对成材成本 端形成支撑,市场亦有焦炭或迎来提涨的传闻; ...
股指期货将震荡整理,白银期货价格再创上市以来新高,黄金期货将偏强震荡,螺纹钢、铁矿石、玻璃、纯碱、天然橡胶、豆粕期货将偏弱震荡,焦煤期货将偏弱宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 07:08
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures contracts on September 26, 2025, and also gives the expected trends for September 2025. It also provides information on macro - news and trading alerts, and analyzes the performance of various futures contracts on September 25, 2025 [2][7][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to oscillate and consolidate. IF2512 has resistance at 4588 and 4600 points, support at 4550 and 4529 points; IH2512 has resistance at 2970 and 2981 points, support at 2946 and 2939 points; IC2512 has resistance at 7250 and 7300 points, support at 7139 and 7100 points; IM2512 has resistance at 7380 and 7459 points, support at 7245 and 7174 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 is likely to oscillate weakly, with support at 107.40 and 107.30 yuan, resistance at 107.72 and 107.83 yuan. The thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 is likely to oscillate weakly in a wide range, with support at 113.5 and 113.0 yuan, resistance at 114.3 and 114.7 yuan [2]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures contract AU2512 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance at 862.1 and 865.0 yuan/gram, support at 850.0 and 848.0 yuan/gram. Silver futures contract AG2512 is likely to oscillate strongly and will attack the resistance at 10600 and 10680 yuan/kg, support at 10411 and 10397 yuan/kg, and may hit a new high since listing [3]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures contract CU2511 is likely to oscillate in a wide range and will accumulate strength to attack the resistance at 83300 and 84000 yuan/ton, support at 82000 and 81500 yuan/ton. Aluminum futures contract AL2511 is likely to oscillate strongly and will attack the resistance at 20860 and 20940 yuan/ton, support at 20740 and 20700 yuan/ton. Alumina futures contract AO2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and will test the support at 2900 and 2877 yuan/ton, resistance at 2942 and 2960 yuan/ton [3]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: Crude oil futures contract SC2511 is likely to oscillate and consolidate, with resistance at 492 and 494 yuan/barrel, support at 485 and 483 yuan/barrel. Fuel oil futures contract FU2601 is likely to oscillate strongly, with resistance at 2910 and 2929 yuan/ton, support at 2887 and 2873 yuan/ton. PTA futures contract TA601, PVC futures contract V2601, and bean meal futures contract M2601 are likely to oscillate weakly. Natural rubber futures contract RU2601 is likely to oscillate weakly and will test the support at 15210 and 15110 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Macro - news and Trading Alerts - The Ministry of Commerce took multiple measures, including adding US entities to export - control and unreliable - entity lists, responding to Sino - US soybean trade issues, initiating trade - investment barrier investigations against Mexico, and launching an anti - dumping investigation into imported pecans from Mexico and the US [7]. - The digital RMB international operation center was officially launched, and the tax department and platforms are preparing for the first tax - related information submission. The US Q2 GDP growth was revised upwards, and some Fed officials advocated for interest - rate cuts [8]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: On September 25, 2025, IF2512, IH2512, and IC2512 showed different degrees of upward movement, while IM2512 showed a slight decline. The report also gives the expected trends for September 2025, all contracts are likely to oscillate in a wide range [12][13][16]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On September 25, 2025, the ten - year Treasury bond futures contract T2512 oscillated weakly, and the thirty - year Treasury bond futures contract TL2512 oscillated slightly upwards. The report gives the expected trends for September 26, 2025 [37][40]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On September 25, 2025, the gold futures contract AU2512 oscillated downwards, and the silver futures contract AG2512 oscillated upwards and hit a new high during the night session. The report gives the expected trends for September 2025 and September 26, 2025 [45][50]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On September 25, 2025, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures showed different trends. The report gives the expected trends for September 2025 and September 26, 2025 [56][61]. - **Other Commodity Futures**: On September 25, 2025, various commodity futures such as crude oil, fuel oil, and PTA showed different trends. The report gives the expected trends for September 2025 and September 26, 2025 [100][104][111].
中辉期货热卷早报-20250926
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 03:40
Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel Products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Cautiously bearish [1][3][5] - **Iron Ore**: Hold long positions initially, then suggested to close long positions [1][8][9] - **Coke**: Cautiously bearish [1][10][13] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bearish [1][14][17] - **Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously bearish, suggest to take profit on long positions [1][18][20] Core Views - **Steel Products**: The downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, with real estate and infrastructure still dragging. The supply is high, and after the macro - event is realized, the sentiment has cooled down. Both rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to trade in a range [1][3][5] - **Iron Ore**: The molten iron output has increased, and the supply has decreased. With pre - National Day restocking by steel mills, the fundamentals are strong in the short term, but the upward driving force is insufficient after the restocking is nearly finished [1][7][8] - **Coke**: Coke has started the first round of price increase but it is not yet finalized. The coking enterprises' profits are acceptable, and production is relatively stable. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it follows coking coal to trade in a range [1][10][12] - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coking coal production is recovering, and imports are at a high level. The demand is guaranteed due to high molten iron output. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but there may be policy disturbances later, and it will trade in a range [1][14][16] - **Ferroalloys**: For ferromanganese, the supply is still high, and the subsequent destocking may be difficult. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, but high warehouse receipts suppress the price increase. After the previous rapid decline, the market may fluctuate [1][18][19] Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Products - **Rebar**: The apparent demand has improved month - on - month, production is flat, and inventory continues to decline, but the destocking speed needs further observation. The overall supply of steel is high, and downstream demand is weak [1][4][5] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: The apparent demand has little change, production has slightly declined, and inventory has slightly increased. The overall change is small, and supply - demand is relatively stable [1][4][5] Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: The molten iron output has increased, and the supply has decreased. Steel mills and ports have increased their inventories, and the restocking is nearly finished. The short - term fundamentals are strong, but the upward driving force is insufficient [1][7][8] Coke - **Market Conditions**: Coke has entered the price - increase stage, with obvious game between coking enterprises and steel mills. The coking enterprises' profits are acceptable, production is relatively stable, but production has slightly decreased and inventory has increased. The demand is high due to high molten iron output, and it follows coking coal to trade in a range [1][10][12] Coking Coal - **Market Conditions**: Domestic production is recovering, approaching last year's level, and imports are at a high level. The demand is guaranteed by high molten iron output. The total inventory is increasing, and the mine inventory is transferred downstream. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but there may be policy disturbances later [1][14][16] Ferroalloys - **Ferromanganese**: The supply in the production area has slightly decreased but is still at a high level. After the new round of restocking demand is released, the subsequent destocking may be difficult. The cost supports the price, but the upward driving force is limited [1][18][19] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, the enterprise inventory has slightly decreased, but the warehouse receipts are still high, suppressing the price increase. After the previous rapid decline, the market may fluctuate [1][18][19]
南华期货早评-20250926
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 03:18
金融期货早评 宏观:美国首申失业金人数下降 【市场资讯】1)美国第二季度 GDP 增速上修至 3.8%,创近两年新高,PCE 物价指数 2.6%。 美国上周首申人数大幅回落至 21.8 万人,为 7 月以来最低。2)所有在世的前美联储主席、 多位前财长和前白宫经济顾问致函最高法,不要解雇美联储理事库克!3)美联储理事米兰: 主张每次降息 50 个基点,通过"短暂且大幅"降息快速达到中性利率。美联储金融监管副主 席鲍曼:就业市场"脆弱"证明理应进一步降息。美联储明年票委呼吁利率工具改革:美联 储是时候准备新基准了。4)历史罕见!白宫警告政府关门期间或永久裁员,预算僵局再升 级。5)美国被爆施压韩国将投资承诺提高近 2000 亿美元、要现金不要贷款。 【核心逻辑】7-8 月作为三季度经济运行的核心观测期,其披露的数据系统呈现出当前宏 观经济的复杂态势:一方面,经济增速边际放缓的压力已明确显现,地产拖累、消费支撑 弱化、投资增速下行等信号共同构成了这一态势的核心底色;另一方面,政策端的逆周期 调节已精准发力,供需两侧的托底政策正按序落地实施;更深层次看,数据亦揭示了金融 市场与宏观基本面的结构性互动。股票市场在经济 ...
建信期货钢材日评-20250926
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 02:15
021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3033782 投资咨询证书号:Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 报告类型 钢材日评 日期 2025 年 9 月 26 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员:翟贺攀 研究员:聂嘉怡 研究员:冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | | | | | 表1:9月25日钢材期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况(单位:元/吨、%、手、亿元) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2601 | 3164 | ...