Workflow
钢铁产业基本面
icon
Search documents
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250526
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-05-26 05:26
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Steel - The steel industry presents a structure of high production, low inventory, weak cost support, and expected demand recovery. However, it is approaching a seasonal weak period. Currently, the demand decline is not significant, and after the tariff reduction in May, terminal orders have improved, with steel exports remaining stable. The prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils are expected to oscillate at low levels, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Iron Ore - This week, the global iron ore shipping volume increased significantly, while the domestic arrival volume decreased. There is still an expectation of increased supply. The molten iron output decreased, and the port clearance volume remained high. The finished product inventory is low, and the demand is resilient. In the future, the terminal demand for finished products will determine the sustainability of high molten iron production. It is expected that iron ore will maintain an oscillating trend [4]. Coke - Last week, coke futures continued to decline. Another round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and there are expectations of 2 - 3 more rounds of cuts. The supply is increasing slightly, the demand may decline, and the inventory in coking plants is starting to accumulate. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract on rallies and consider a long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coke strategy [5]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures continued to decline. The spot price is in a continuous decline, and the market is pessimistic. The supply is relatively high, the demand may decline, and the inventory in mines is accumulating. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract on rallies and continue to hold the long - hot - rolled - coil and short - coking - coal strategy [5]. Ferrosilicon - The daily output of ferrosilicon decreased month - on - month, and the supply pressure has been alleviated. However, the overall inventory is still at a medium - high level. The profits of manufacturers in the main production areas are differentiated, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is low. It is expected that the price will decline [6]. Ferromanganese - Recently, the daily output of ferromanganese has increased slightly. The supply pressure is concentrated in the northern regions. The molten iron output decreased, and the finished product inventory is low with resilient demand. The manganese ore supply is expected to increase, and the price will be under pressure. Ferromanganese is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [6]. Summaries by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the rebar spot price in East China dropped from 3190 yuan/ton to 3180 yuan/ton, and the rebar 05 contract price decreased from 3097 yuan/ton to 3078 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The costs of electric - arc furnace and converter rebar in Jiangsu decreased slightly, while the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil in most regions increased, except for the rebar profit in South China, which decreased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron output decreased by 0.5% to 243.6 tons, and the production of five major steel products increased by 0.5% to 872.4 tons. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.2% to 1398.5 tons [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehousing costs and spot prices of various iron ore powders decreased. For example, the warehousing cost of PB powder dropped from 805.2 yuan/ton to 797.5 yuan/ton, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased from 760 yuan/ton to 753 yuan/ton [4]. Supply and Demand - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 3.5% to 2271.3 tons, and the global shipping volume increased by 10.5% to 3347.8 tons. The molten iron output decreased by 0.5% to 243.6 tons, and the port clearance volume increased by 1.0% to 327.1 tons [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.5% to 13987.83 tons, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% to 8925.5 tons [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke spot and futures decreased. For example, the price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained at 1266 yuan/ton, and the coke 09 contract price dropped from 1407 yuan/ton to 1383 yuan/ton [5]. Supply and Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased slightly by 0.2% to 67.3 tons, and the molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.5% to 243.6 tons [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 0.4% to 986.9 tons. The inventory in coking plants increased by 9.5%, while the inventory in steel mills decreased by 0.5% [5]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal spot and futures decreased. For example, the price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained at 1030 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 09 contract price dropped from 828 yuan/ton to 802 yuan/ton [5]. Supply and Demand - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 0.34% to 895.8 tons, and the molten iron output decreased by 0.5% to 243.6 tons [5]. Inventory - The coking coal inventory in mines increased by 9.24% to 230.3 tons, and the inventory in coking plants decreased by 2.2% to 865.7 tons [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Prices and Spreads - The ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices decreased. The ferrosilicon 72%FeSi: Inner Mongolia spot price remained unchanged, while the ferromanganese FeMn65Si17 Inner Mongolia spot price increased by 2.2% [6]. Cost and Profit - The cost of some raw materials for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese increased slightly, and the profit situation varies in different regions [6]. Supply and Demand - The ferrosilicon production decreased by 4.9% to 8.9 tons, and the ferromanganese production increased by 1.5% to 16.5 tons. The molten iron output decreased by 0.5% to 243.6 tons [6]. Inventory - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 1.9% to 7.5 tons, and the ferromanganese inventory of 63 sample enterprises decreased by 2.9% to 20.1 tons [6].