黑色建材日报 | 2026-02-25 产业矛盾累积，成本支撑减弱 玻璃纯碱：供需矛盾仍存，纯碱偏弱运行 玻璃方面：震荡 纯碱方面：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 市场分析 风险 玻璃方面：昨日期货盘面偏强震荡，尾盘有所回收。现货方面，沙河地区工厂出货较好，华东市场交投一般，华 中市场价格暂稳，华南市场除个别企业针对个别基地存满量优惠外，多数价格暂稳，东北市场价格暂时稳定。昨 日浮法玻璃现货价格1269元/吨，环比上一交易日持平。供需与逻辑：本轮偏弱的地产数据压制了玻璃反弹高度， 但即将步入玻璃传统消费旺季，关注后续是否能形成阶段性的消费回升和库存的持续去化，目前处于近月资金博 弈阶段，谨慎对待当前的价格。 纯碱方面：昨日期货盘面偏强震荡，尾盘有所回收。现货方面，国内纯碱市场走势弱，价格阴跌，窄幅调整，企 业库存去库幅度放缓，逐步转向累库。最新纯碱开工率83.83%，装置开工正常，暂无波动。供需与逻辑：需求端 来看，浮法玻璃受地产数据影响，表现薄弱。随着春季检修结束，纯碱库存有进一步增加压力，长期来看，纯碱 供需仍偏宽松。 策略 硅锰方面：：昨日锰硅期货节后开市震荡调整，单日增仓41065。假期结束开市第一天 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The supply and demand of steel are both weakening, and steel prices are fluctuating. Glass and soda ash are experiencing range - bound oscillations due to pre - holiday cautious sentiment. For double silicon, the market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode as the Spring Festival approaches [1][3] - Glass market fundamentals have no obvious improvement. Although the expected production halt in Shahe eases supply pressure, pre - holiday demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Soda ash supply is abundant with new production projects advancing, and pre - holiday demand is seasonally low [1] - The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved slightly with expected increase in iron - water production, but inventory pressure remains high. The fundamentals of silicon iron are controllable, and demand is expected to improve marginally as steel mills resume production, but overall over - capacity restricts price increases [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass contracts showed narrow - range fluctuations yesterday, with decreasing positions as the holiday nears. Spot prices are stable, but trading volume is low. This week, cold - repair of production lines increased, daily melting volume dropped, and inventory rose. Soda ash contracts also had narrow - range fluctuations, with low spot trading volume. This week, soda ash production increased slightly, heavy - ash inventory rose slightly, and light - ash inventory decreased [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass fundamentals have no significant improvement. The expected production halt in Shahe eases supply pressure, but pre - holiday demand is weak, and inventory accumulation continues. Soda ash supply is in a loose pattern. With new production projects advancing, production remains high, and inventory is increasing. Pre - holiday demand drops seasonally, and the new production projects need to be monitored [1] Strategy - Glass: Range - bound fluctuations; Soda ash: Range - bound fluctuations; No strategies for inter - period and inter - variety trading [2] Double Silicon Market Analysis - Silicon manganese futures continued to fluctuate slightly, and the market was quiet with a strong holiday atmosphere. The price of 6517 silicon manganese is 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton in the northern market and 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton in the southern market. Silicon iron futures followed the overall black - metal market downwards, and the spot market was weak. Most of the market is in a wait - and - see mode. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon manganese fundamentals have improved slightly, and iron - water production is expected to increase, leading to marginal improvement in demand. However, inventory pressure is still high. The South African tariff policy may increase manganese ore costs. Silicon iron fundamentals are controllable. Enterprises are reducing production, and demand is expected to improve as steel mills resume production. But overall over - capacity restricts price increases, and inventory reduction and power - price policies need to be monitored [3] Strategy - Silicon manganese: Range - bound fluctuations; Silicon iron: Range - bound fluctuations [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment is average, and steel prices are fluctuating weakly. The supply - demand contradictions in the glass and soda ash markets remain unresolved, leading to wide - range fluctuations. For double - silicon, the pre - holiday replenishment is nearing the end, causing significant declines in double - silicon futures [1][3] - Glass is expected to show an oscillatory trend, while soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly. Both silicon manganese and silicon iron are expected to show an oscillatory trend [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The main glass contract showed wide - range fluctuations yesterday, with the open interest steadily increasing as the market rebounded and high market activity. Spot prices fluctuated with the market, and downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand [1] - Soda Ash: The main soda ash contract showed a weak - oscillatory trend yesterday, with obvious multi - short game. The short - position open interest increased, spot prices stabilized, and buyers mainly replenished stocks based on rigid demand [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: Glass production decreased slightly year - on - year due to cold - repair and production cuts, alleviating supply pressure and providing some support for prices. However, the downstream is still in the traditional off - season, and the inventory - replenishment sentiment is low, limiting the upside space for prices. The absolute glass price is currently low, and the tolerance for inventory during the Spring Festival is high. The fundamental contradictions have not been effectively resolved [1] - Soda Ash: The current production of soda ash is high, and with the advancement of new projects, the supply - side pressure is increasing. Downstream consumption shows a seasonal decline as cold - repair increases. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers remains at a high level, and the de - stocking process is slow, resulting in significant supply - demand contradictions [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda Ash: Weakly oscillatory [2] Double - Silicon (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: As the Chinese New Year approaches, raw - material replenishment is nearing the end, and the silicon manganese futures dropped significantly yesterday. The silicon manganese market is oscillating, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment at the beginning of the week. The mainstream steel procurement has not yet started. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market is 5580 - 5680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5720 - 5770 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron futures followed the overall downward trend of the black - metal market yesterday. The silicon iron market is operating weakly, with strong cautious wait - and - see sentiment. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas is 5250 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 5850 - 6000 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved, and there is an expectation of an increase in hot - metal production in the future, leading to a marginal improvement in silicon manganese demand. However, the inventory pressure is still large, and the supply - demand pattern remains relatively loose. The recent tariff policy in South Africa may increase the cost of manganese ore, so attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and inventory changes [3] - Silicon Iron: The fundamental contradictions of silicon iron are controllable, and enterprises are actively reducing production loads. Considering the resumption of production by steel mills, the demand for silicon iron is expected to improve marginally. The overall over - capacity of silicon iron suppresses the price increase. Continuous attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation of silicon iron and the electricity - price policy in the production areas [3] Strategy - Silicon Manganese: Oscillatory [4] - Silicon Iron: Oscillatory [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Ferrosilicon Manganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Views - The glass and soda ash markets are oscillating weakly with inventory accumulation and weak spot sales. The double - silicon market has insufficient supply - demand contradictions and is oscillating [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the glass futures oscillated weakly, and the spot market price remained stable with mediocre sales. This week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 53.064 million heavy cases, a 0.95% increase from the previous week [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: There are disturbances on the supply side, and production is expected to decrease. Rising coal prices have pushed up costs, and the inventory pressure on glass factories is not high, leading to a price rebound. However, the supply - demand is still loose, and the industry faces pressure without significant demand improvement. Attention should be paid to cold repairs of production lines and industrial policies [1]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the soda ash futures oscillated weakly, and the market was cautious. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid - demand purchases. This week, the soda ash inventory was 1.5811 million tons, a 1.33% increase from the previous week [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is relatively limited. After some alkali plants completed maintenance, supply increased. Considering new projects and the expected increase in cold repairs of float glass, the production profit of soda ash enterprises needs to be suppressed. Attention should be paid to changes in float glass production lines and new soda ash projects [1]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating weakly [2] Ferrosilicon Manganese - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon manganese futures oscillated. The spot market sentiment fluctuated with the futures, with strong wait - and - see sentiment. The price in the northern market was 5,590 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5,720 - 5,770 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The fundamentals have improved, and there is an expected increase in hot metal production, leading to marginal improvement in demand. However, the inventory pressure is still large, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The South African tariff policy may increase manganese ore costs, and attention should be paid to cost support and inventory changes [3]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the ferrosilicon futures oscillated. The spot price was stable, and the trading atmosphere improved slightly, mainly for rigid demand. The price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production area was 5,250 - 5,350 yuan/ton, and that of 75 - grade was 5,850 - 6,000 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is controllable. Enterprises have actively reduced production loads. With the resumption of steel mills, demand is expected to improve marginally. However, the overall over - capacity suppresses the price increase. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction and power price policies in production areas [3]. - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The upward potential depends on coking coal supply - side policies and market sentiment. It is recommended to hold the long position of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar and look for short - term long opportunities for hot - rolled coil at the 3250 level [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Before the Spring Festival, iron ore demand is weak. High inventory and high - level supply during the off - season continue to put pressure on prices. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and short - selling can be attempted, but be vigilant about macro and market sentiment disturbances [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the price increase has been implemented, which drives the market to rebound. However, the lag in the implementation time of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises dampens the expectation of future price increases. After the Spring Festival, there is still an expectation of supply loosening. It is recommended to view it as a unilateral volatility with a reference range of 1600 - 1800, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke. - For coking coal, the market has a re - evaluation of its value, but the domestic supply - demand is generally balanced. It is also recommended to view it as a unilateral volatility with a reference range of 1050 - 1250, and the arbitrage strategy is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, the fundamentals are relatively healthy, and there is cost support. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the range of 5500 - 5800, taking into account macro - sentiment fluctuations. - For ferromanganese, it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. After the Spring Festival, there is still an expectation of production resumption, and the fundamentals lack strength. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the range of 5600 - 6000, paying attention to macro - sentiment fluctuations [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices: Rebar spot prices in different regions (East China, North China, South China) and futures contract prices (05, 10, 01) have different changes. Hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices also show various trends. For example, rebar spot in North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 05 contract decreased by 25 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price is 2920 yuan/ton with no change. Plate billet price is 3730 yuan/ton with no change. Profits of different steel products in different regions vary, such as the East China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 7 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output is 228.0 tons with a decrease of 0.1 tons (- 0.1%). The output of five major steel products is 823.2 tons, an increase of 3.6 tons (0.4%). The inventory of five major steel products is 1278.5 tons, an increase of 21.4 tons (1.7%). Rebar inventory continued to accumulate, while hot - rolled coil inventory decreased [1]. Demand - Building materials trading volume decreased by 0.5 tons (- 11.6%). The apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 7.8 tons (- 1.0%) [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders (e.g., lower powder, PB powder) decreased, with a decline of about 0.6% - 0.7%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 (2.9%), and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1.5 (- 12.0%) [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 45.3 tons (- 1.8%), and the global shipping volume increased by 116.3 tons (3.9%). The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 tons (8.2%) [3]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.1%), and the 45 - port daily average desilting volume increased by 21.6 tons (6.9%) [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 255.7 tons (1.5%), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 579.8 tons (6.2%) [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices fluctuated. Coke 05 contract increased by 35 yuan/ton (2.1%), and coking coal 05 contract increased by 26 yuan/ton (2.3%). The basis and spreads of different contracts also changed [6]. Supply - Coke production: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5 tons (- 0.7%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons (0.2%). Coking coal production: The raw coal output decreased by 2.7 tons (- 0.34%), and the clean coal output decreased by 0.6 tons (- 0.14%) [6]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.1%) [6]. Inventory - Coke total inventory increased by 21.5 tons (2.3%), and coking coal inventory in different sectors (e.g., coking plants, steel mills, ports) also had different changes [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices changed slightly. Ferrosilicon主力合约 decreased by 4.0 yuan/ton (- 0.1%), and ferromanganese主力合约 increased by 2.0 yuan/ton (0.04%). The spreads between different regions and contracts also changed [7]. Cost and Profit - Ferrosilicon production costs in different regions (e.g., Inner Mongolia, Qinghai) increased slightly, and production profits changed. Ferromanganese production costs in some regions remained stable [7]. Supply - Ferrosilicon weekly output was 9.8 tons, with a slight increase of 0.0 tons (0.1%). Ferromanganese weekly output decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.4%) [7]. Demand - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese demand remained relatively stable. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.1%) [7]. Inventory - Ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.1 tons (1.0%), and ferromanganese inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased by 0.1 tons (0.3%) [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel industry shows low and stable production, declining apparent demand, seasonal inventory accumulation with a lower - than - year - on - year rate. Rebar continues to accumulate inventory while hot - rolled coils maintain de - stocking. Steel prices fluctuate with market sentiment, staying in a range. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar widens, and the basis of rebar weakens while that of hot - rolled coils strengthens. In February, due to the Spring Festival off - season, supply and demand are weak. Steel prices are expected to continue seasonal inventory accumulation, with de - stocking pressure after the festival. The price is constrained by weak domestic demand on the upside and supported by macro sentiment and supply - side policies on the downside. Rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3050 - 3250 yuan, and hot - rolled coils between 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. With high inventory, stagnant resumption of iron - making production, and the fulfillment of steel mills' restocking, iron ore prices are under pressure. Supply shows a marginal decrease in the shipping center but is still at a relatively high level compared to historical periods. Demand sees a slight decline in iron - making production and a drop in steel mills' profitability. Terminal demand for steel exports weakens, and the manufacturing industry faces an off - season. Before the Spring Festival, it is difficult to resume iron - making production, and negative feedback is also hard to observe. Port inventory continues to accumulate, and steel mills' inventory increases significantly. Before the Spring Festival, the price is expected to be under pressure, and one can try short - selling around 800 yuan, but beware of macro and market sentiment disturbances [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Coke futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling in January. The fourth - round price cut of coke was implemented on January 1st, followed by price increases from major coke producers. The first - round price increase was officially accepted by steel mills on January 28th and executed on the 30th. The supply side has lagging price adjustments of coke compared to coking coal, resulting in pressure on coking profits and a slight decline in production. The demand side has a slight resumption of production by steel mills after New Year's Day, with low - level iron - making production and a rebound in steel prices. In terms of inventory, coke - making plants and steel mills accumulate inventory, while ports reduce inventory. The overall inventory is slightly increased at a medium level, and the supply - demand situation of coke improves. Before the Spring Festival, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly strong, with a reference range of 1650 - 1850 yuan. - Coking coal futures also showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Spot prices in Shanxi showed signs of decline, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuated with futures. The supply side has an increase in daily coal output from mines and faster de - stocking. Imported coal has a high - level inventory at ports, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has rebounded rapidly after New Year's Day. The demand side has limited growth in demand for downstream restocking before the Spring Festival due to low - level iron - making production, declining coking profits, and reduced production. In terms of inventory, coke - making plants, steel mills, and ports accumulate inventory, while mines, coal - washing plants, and ports reduce inventory. The overall inventory is slightly increased at a medium level. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly strong before the Spring Festival, with a reference range of 1050 - 1250 yuan. An arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke is recommended, but beware of the supply - demand situation turning loose after the festival [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, supply shows a slight decline, with stable production recently and an increase in the operating rate of manufacturers. The absolute weekly production is at a historically low level. Inner Mongolia's production rises steadily, Ningxia's production is stable, and southern regions may see a contraction in production due to potential electricity price hikes. Steel - making demand is expected to have stable iron - making production before the Spring Festival. The contradiction in the finished - product market is relatively limited, and the resumption of iron - making production can suppress inventory contradictions. However, the resumption space is limited by off - season demand, and negative feedback is hard to observe. The inventory in factories is still high, mainly concentrated in Ningxia, but the warehouse - receipt level is relatively low. The cost of alloy manufacturers' coal - mine replenishment is rising. The overall non - steel demand is marginally weakening. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is limited, and the fundamentals are relatively healthy. The cost side also provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment fluctuations [6]. - For ferromanganese, supply has a slight increase in production, basically remaining stable from the previous period. Most production areas' output is flat compared to last week, with a slight increase in Ningxia's output. Inner Mongolia's settlement electricity price in January is expected to rise, and attention should be paid to the change in settlement electricity prices in other production areas. Before the Spring Festival, the production of ferromanganese is expected to be stable. Steel - making demand is expected to have stable iron - making production before the Spring Festival. The contradiction in the finished - product market is relatively limited, and the resumption of iron - making production can suppress inventory contradictions. However, the resumption space is limited by off - season demand, and negative feedback is hard to observe. Hebei Iron and Steel Group's next - month procurement volume is reduced compared to last month, and attention should be paid to the pricing. The non - steel demand is weakening, and the price is falling. The cost of manganese ore is expected to rise, but the increase is limited. In the short term, the high inventory still suppresses the price, and the fundamentals lack impetus. The price of ferromanganese is expected to fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 5600 - 6000 yuan, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3250 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, and 3290 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3128 yuan/ton, 3177 yuan/ton, and 3211 yuan/ton respectively. - Hot - rolled coils: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3270 yuan/ton, 3170 yuan/ton, and 3290 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3288 yuan/ton, 3311 yuan/ton, and 3336 yuan/ton respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price is 2940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. Plate - billet price is 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar cost is 3239 yuan/ton, unchanged, and converter rebar cost is 3168 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. - East China hot - rolled coil profit is 16 yuan/ton, North China hot - rolled coil profit is - 94 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, and South China hot - rolled coil profit is 16 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan. East China rebar profit is - 14 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan, North China rebar profit is - 104 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan, and South China rebar profit is 146 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [1]. Production - Daily average iron - making production is 228.00 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons. - Total production of five major steel products is 823.20 thousand tons, up 3.6 thousand tons. Rebar production is 199.80 thousand tons, up 0.3 thousand tons, including 32.20 thousand tons of electric - furnace products, down 1.1 thousand tons, and 167.60 thousand tons of converter products, up 1.4 thousand tons. Hot - rolled coil production is 309.20 thousand tons, up 3.8 thousand tons [1]. Inventory - Total inventory of five major steel products is 1278.50 thousand tons, up 21.4 thousand tons. Rebar inventory is 475.50 thousand tons, up 23.4 thousand tons. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 355.60 thousand tons, down 2.2 thousand tons [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials transaction volume is 5600 tons, down 1700 tons. Apparent consumption of five major steel products is 801.70 thousand tons, down 7.8 thousand tons. Apparent consumption of rebar is 176.40 thousand tons, down 9.1 thousand tons. Apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils is 311.40 thousand tons, up 1.5 thousand tons [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - Warehouse - receipt costs of different iron ore powders show different changes. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder is 845.7 yuan/ton, down 9.9 yuan. The 05 - contract basis of different iron ore powders also changes, and the 5 - 9 spread is 19.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread is - 31.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port decline. For example, the price of PB powder is 790.0 yuan/ton, down 9.0 yuan. The price of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap is 105.6 dollars/ton, down 0.1 dollars [3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports is 25.30 million tons, down 1.297 million tons. The global weekly shipping volume is 29.783 million tons, up 0.484 million tons. The national monthly import volume is 119.647 million tons, up 9.107 million tons [3]. Demand - The weekly average daily iron - making production of 247 steel mills is 228.00 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons. The weekly average daily port - clearance volume at 45 ports is 332.30 thousand tons, up 21.6 thousand tons. The national monthly pig - iron output is 60.722 million tons, down 1.621 million tons, and the national monthly crude - steel output is 68.177 million tons, down 1.694 million tons [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory is 170.2226 million tons, up 2.557 million tons. The imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills is 99.686 million tons, up 5.798 million tons. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills is 27 days, up 4 days [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal prices in Shanxi and Mongolia remain stable. The 05 - and 09 - contract prices of coking coal decline, and the basis and spreads show corresponding changes [5]. Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke prices in Shanxi and Rizhao Port change. The 05 - and 09 - contract prices of coke decline, and the basis and spreads change accordingly [5]. Supply - The weekly coke output of all - sample coking plants is 62800 tons, down 500 tons, and the weekly output of 247 steel mills is 47000 tons, up 100 tons. The weekly output of Fenwei sample coal mines shows a decline [5]. Demand - The weekly iron - making production of 247 steel mills is 228.00 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons. The weekly coke output of all - sample coking plants is 62800 tons, down 500 tons [5]. Inventory Changes - Coke inventory increases. The inventory of all - sample coking plants is 84400 tons, up 2900 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills is 678200 tons, up 16600 tons. The port inventory is 198100 tons, up 2000 tons. Coking coal inventory also changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese spot prices in different regions show different changes. The main - contract closing prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decline [6]. Cost and Profit - The production costs and profits of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions change. For example, the production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is 5866.2 yuan/ton, up slightly [6]. Supply - The weekly output of ferrosilicon is 98000 tons, up slightly, and the operating rate is 29.1%. The weekly output of ferromanganese is 192000 tons, down slightly, and the operating rate is 36.2% [6]. Demand - The weekly demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese calculated by Steel Union shows little change. The weekly average daily iron - making production of 247 steel mills is 228.00 thousand tons, down 0.1 thousand tons [6]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of 60 - sample ferrosilicon enterprises is 37300 tons, up slightly, and the average available days for downstream ferrosilicon use increase. The inventory of ferromanganese and its average available days also change [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Steel prices maintain a sideways trend, with rebar slightly stronger than hot - rolled coils, and the spread between coils and rebar has converged to 160 yuan per ton. The steel industry has weak supply and demand. Rebar demand declines seasonally, with a large supply - demand gap and obvious inventory accumulation; hot - rolled coil demand declines slightly and inventory continues to be depleted. The market sentiment has improved in the second half, and steel is expected to fluctuate towards the upper limit of the range. The 5 - month contract of rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3050 - 3250 yuan, and hot - rolled coils between 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is facing a pattern of weak supply and demand. With the possible easing of the negotiation deadlock, lower - than - expected hot - metal production resumption, and the gradual realization of steel - mill restocking, prices are under pressure. Be cautious of macro - level fluctuations [3]. Coke - The coke futures showed a trend of first falling and then rising last week. The spot market is currently stable. Supply - side price adjustments lag behind coking coal, and coking profits are under pressure. Demand - side steel - mill production has resumed slightly after the New Year's Day. Inventory has increased slightly. After the fourth round of spot price cuts, some coke enterprises are resisting price cuts and starting to raise prices, which is expected to be implemented. The market is expected to be loose again, and prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 1600 - 1800 yuan [5]. Coking Coal - Coking coal futures also showed a trend of first falling and then rising last week. The spot auction prices in Shanxi mostly increased, and the Mongolian coal quotation followed the futures down. The supply side has resumed production, and the demand side has low - level hot - metal production and weakening coking profits. The overall inventory has increased slightly. Before the Spring Festival, the spot is strong due to restocking demand, but the futures have over - anticipated the rise. After the festival, the market is expected to be loose, and prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 1000 - 1200 yuan [5]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Supply is stable, and production is at a historically low level. The non - steel demand is weakening. The overall inventory is moderately high. The cost is affected by the manganese ore restocking. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely within the range of 5500 - 5900 yuan [6]. Silicomanganese - Silicomanganese supply is relatively stable with a low absolute value. The demand is affected by the slow resumption of hot - metal production. The manganese ore supply and port inventory have an impact on the cost. The price is expected to fluctuate widely within the range of 5600 - 6000 yuan [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions have different changes, with some rising and some remaining stable. The basis and spreads of different contracts also vary [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices have different changes. The costs of electric - furnace and converter rebar in different regions also change, and the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions decline to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average hot - metal output and the output of five major steel products are basically stable. Rebar production increases by 4.9%, with converter production increasing by 6.3% and electric - furnace production decreasing by 2.0%. Hot - rolled coil production decreases by 1.0% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increases by 0.8%, with rebar inventory increasing by 3.2% and hot - rolled coil inventory decreasing by 1.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material transactions increase by 8.9%, while the apparent demand for five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils decreases [1]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders increase by about 0.9%, and the basis of the 05 - contract for different powders decreases slightly. The 5 - 9 spread increases by 2.9%, and the 1 - 5 spread decreases by 3.4% [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port increase by about 0.8% - 0.9%, and the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price increases slightly [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume and global shipment volume decline, while the national monthly import volume increases by 8.2% [3]. Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is basically stable, the 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume decreases by 2.9%, and the national monthly pig - iron and crude - steel production decline [3]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory and the imported - ore inventory of 247 steel mills increase, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increase by 9.5% [3]. Coke Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remain stable, while the 05 and 09 - contract prices increase. The coking profit (weekly) of the Steel Union declines [5]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remains stable, and the price of Mongolian coking coal (warehouse - receipt) increases by 0.4%. The overseas coal prices of some varieties increase [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreases slightly, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increases slightly [5]. Demand - The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increases slightly [5]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increases by 2.1%, with the inventory of coking plants decreasing and the inventory of steel mills and ports increasing [5]. Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap remains basically unchanged [5]. Coking Coal Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) remains stable, and the 05 and 09 - contract prices increase. The sample coal - mine profit (weekly) increases [5]. Supply - The raw - coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreases slightly, and the coking - coal product output decreases slightly [5]. Demand - The coke output of all - sample coking plants decreases slightly, and the coke output of 247 steel mills increases slightly [5]. Inventory Changes - The coking - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreases, while the inventory of all - sample coking plants, 247 steel mills, and ports changes in different directions [5]. Ferrosilicon Ferrosilicon Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increases, and the spot prices of some regions increase slightly [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in some regions changes slightly, and the production profit in some regions improves [6]. Supply - The ferrosilicon product output (weekly) decreases slightly, and the operating rate of production enterprises decreases slightly [6]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand (weekly) calculated by the Steel Union increases slightly [6]. Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises increases by 5.4%, and the average available days of downstream ferrosilicon decrease [6]. Silicomanganese Silicomanganese Spot Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the silicomanganese main contract increases, and the spot prices in most regions remain stable [6]. Cost and Profit - The manganese - ore prices of some varieties at Tianjin Port remain stable [6]. Supply - The silicomanganese weekly output increases slightly, and the operating rate increases slightly [6]. Demand - The silicomanganese demand calculated by the Steel Union increases slightly [6]. Inventory Changes - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises remains basically unchanged, and the average available days of inventory decrease [6].

Group 1: Overall Market Situation - The fundamentals of steel are under continued pressure, and steel prices are fluctuating [1] Group 2: Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass futures fluctuated and rose yesterday, while the spot market quotes remained stable, with dull production and sales by manufacturers and a cold trading atmosphere in the spot and futures markets This week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers was 53.216 million heavy boxes, a 0.38% increase from the previous week [2] - Soda ash futures also fluctuated and rose yesterday, with limited rigid demand procurement from downstream. This week, the soda ash inventory was 1.5212 million tons, a 1.49% decrease from the previous week [2] Supply - Demand and Logic - The supply - demand contradiction in the glass market is still significant. Although some production lines have been gradually cold - repaired, the production reduction is still insufficient compared to the decline in rigid demand. With the procurement by spot - futures traders, the inventory pressure is expected to ease, and the market anticipates a peak season after the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the progress of glass cold - repair [2] - The supply - demand contradiction in the soda ash market is relatively limited. Some soda ash plants have completed maintenance, and supply has increased. Considering the upcoming new production projects in the future and the expected increase in cold - repair of float glass production lines, it is necessary to suppress the production profit of soda ash enterprises to avoid supply - demand imbalance. In the short term, the speculative demand for soda ash has increased under the influence of macro - sentiment. Attention should be paid to the changes in float glass production lines and the progress of new soda ash production projects [2] Strategy - The glass market is expected to be in a state of fluctuation, while the soda ash market is expected to fluctuate weakly [3] Group 3: Silicon Manganese and Silicon Ferrosilicon Market Analysis - The main contract of silicon manganese opened lower and moved higher yesterday, with trading volume increasing as the market fluctuated at a high level. The cost support for the alloy is acceptable. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market is 5,570 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5,700 - 5,750 yuan/ton [4] - The silicon ferrosilicon futures fluctuated strongly yesterday, and the market adjusted slightly, with strong cautious waiting - and - seeing sentiment. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade natural block silicon ferrosilicon in the main production areas is 5,200 - 5,250 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon ferrosilicon is 5,800 - 5,850 yuan/ton [4] Supply - Demand and Logic - The fundamentals of silicon manganese have improved, but the inventory pressure is still large, and there are new production capacities coming on - stream, so the supply - demand is still relatively loose. There is an expectation of an increase in pig iron production in the future, and combined with the expectation of steel mills' inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival, the demand for silicon manganese is expected to improve. The recent tariff policy changes in South Africa may increase the cost of manganese ore. Attention should be paid to the cost support of manganese ore and production changes [4] - The fundamental contradictions of silicon ferrosilicon are controllable, and enterprises have actively reduced production loads. Considering the resumption of production by steel mills and winter - storage inventory replenishment, the demand for silicon ferrosilicon is expected to improve. The differential electricity price policy implemented in Shaanxi in the second half of the year has affected market sentiment, but considering the expected further decline in domestic electricity prices this year and the overall over - capacity of silicon ferrosilicon, the price increase is limited. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of silicon ferrosilicon and the electricity price policies in production areas [4] Strategy - Both the silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon markets are expected to be in a state of fluctuation [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel market shows weak supply and demand. The seasonal decline in rebar demand is significant, while the decline in hot - rolled coil demand is relatively small. The recent cost reduction may lead to a downward shift in the steel price center. The reference range for the May rebar contract is 3050 - 3250 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3200 - 3350 yuan. Consider closing long positions on the steel - to - ore ratio when it rises, and continue to hold long positions on the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Iron ore is facing a situation of weak supply and demand. The support factors for iron ore are reversing, with iron - making resumption falling short of expectations, potential changes in negotiation deadlocks, and the gradual fulfillment of steel mill restocking. The price is under overall pressure, and it is advisable to short at around 800 yuan [4]. Coke Industry - The coke market is currently stable. After the fourth - round price cut, some coke enterprises are resisting price cuts and limiting production to maintain prices. The mainstream coke enterprises are initiating a price increase, which is expected to be realized. The market is expected to be looser after the Spring Festival, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1600 - 1800 yuan [7]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand. Before the Spring Festival, the spot market is strong due to restocking demand, but the futures market has over - anticipated the price increase. After the Spring Festival, the market supply and demand are expected to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1000 - 1200 yuan [7]. Ferrosilicon Industry - The short - term supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is limited, lacking upward drivers at the industrial level. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly within the range of 5300 - 5800 yuan, with short - term attention to macro and policy factors [8]. Ferromanganese Industry - Ferromanganese is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 5800 - 6000 yuan, with short - term attention to macro and policy factors [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. The rebar spot price in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, and the rebar 05 contract price decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 3117 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil spot price in North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3170 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 05 contract price decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 3286 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2930 yuan/ton. The profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton, and the profit of rebar in North China decreased by 20 yuan/ton to - 95 yuan/ton [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decline of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased slightly by 0.6 tons to 819.2 tons, an increase of 0.1%. Rebar production decreased by 0.7 tons to 190.3 tons, a decrease of 0.4%, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 2.9 tons to 308.4 tons, an increase of 0.9% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 6.9 tons to 1247.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6%. The rebar inventory remained unchanged at 438.1 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 5.8 tons to 362.3 tons, a decrease of 1.6% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.2 to 7.6, a decrease of 2.2%. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 29.3 tons to 826.1 tons, an increase of 3.7%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 15.4 tons to 190.3 tons, an increase of 8.8%, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 5.8 tons to 314.2 tons, an increase of 1.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of most iron ore varieties decreased, with the PB powder warehouse - receipt cost decreasing by 5.5 yuan/ton to 850.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6%. The 05 - contract basis of some varieties changed slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 17.5, a decrease of 2.8% [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 260.7 tons to 2659.7 tons, a decrease of 8.9%. The global shipment volume decreased by 251.0 tons to 2929.9 tons, a decrease of 7.9%. The national monthly import volume increased by 910.7 tons to 11964.7 tons, an increase of 8.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6%. The 45 - port daily average ore removal volume decreased by 3.4 tons to 661.3 tons, a decrease of 1.0%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 162.3 tons to 6072.0 tons, a decrease of 2.6%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 169.1 tons [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 279.8 tons to 16555.10 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 272.6 tons to 9262.2 tons, an increase of 3.0%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 2.0 days to 21.0 days, an increase of 10.5% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The coke 05 contract price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1684 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.6%. The coking profit decreased by 20 yuan/ton [7]. Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased by 27 yuan/ton to 1193 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.2%. The coking coal 05 contract price increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1129 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.4%. The sample coal mine profit increased by 18 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.74% [7]. Supply - The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.1 tons to 63.5 tons, a decrease of 0.2%. The daily average coke output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2 tons to 46.7 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 2.7 tons to 853.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [7]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6%. The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants and 247 steel mills decreased slightly [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 4.3 tons to 920.2 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 4.3 tons to 81.8 tons, a decrease of 4.9%, while the coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.6 tons to 650.3 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The coking coal inventory of various sectors increased to varying degrees [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of ferrosilicon in most regions remained unchanged, with the 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia at 5250 yuan/ton. The spot prices of ferromanganese in some regions also remained unchanged, with the FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia at 5680 yuan/ton. The ferrosilicon主力合约收盘价 increased by 4.0 yuan/ton to 5556.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.14%, and the ferromanganese主力合约收盘价 increased by 26.0 yuan/ton to 5786.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.5% [8]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased slightly, and the production profit increased slightly. The manganese ore prices of some varieties decreased slightly [8]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production enterprise's weekly start - up rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 29.2%, a decrease of 1.4%. The ferromanganese weekly output remained unchanged at 19.1 tons, and the start - up rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 36.1%, a decrease of 2.0% [8]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand (calculated by Steel Union) decreased slightly, and the ferromanganese demand remained unchanged. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.5 tons to 228.0 tons, a decrease of 0.6% [8]. Inventory - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.5 tons to 6.4 tons, a decrease of 7.5%. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese decreased by 1.0 tons to 37.3 tons, a decrease of 2.5% [8].