Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a draft for the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Steel Industry," indicating a tightening of capacity replacement policies, which is expected to lead to a further decline in industry capacity replacement and establish a capacity ceiling for the steel industry [1][2]. Group 1: Capacity Replacement Policy - The capacity replacement ratio has been tightened, with the new draft eliminating regional differences and setting a uniform replacement ratio of no less than 1.5:1 for all areas [2]. - Long-term idle or unbuilt capacity is prohibited from participating in capacity replacement [2]. - Trading of capacity indicators for replacement will no longer be allowed after two years [2]. - New project acceptance will have timely regulations, enhancing the regulatory framework [2]. Group 2: Encouragement of Low-Carbon Metallurgy and Industry Consolidation - The new measures encourage low-carbon processes such as electric furnaces and hydrogen metallurgy by allowing equal capacity replacement for these technologies, reflecting the government's support for low-carbon development in the steel sector [3]. - The draft specifies that capacity trading will be eliminated after 2027, which may lead weaker steel companies to exit the market through mergers or closures, promoting industry consolidation and benefiting core assets with competitive advantages [3]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The current market presents opportunities for long-term investment in high-quality core assets, which are currently undervalued with P/B ratios below net asset value [4]. - Focus on two main lines: 1) Long-term perspective, as core assets are generally undervalued and may see valuation recovery with the bottoming of profit cycles, with Huazhong Steel (000932) being a top pick [4]. 2) Short-term perspective, where production control and mid-term capacity clearance will have a greater marginal impact on rebar companies, suggesting a focus on efficient steel enterprises with a high proportion of rebar production [4].