Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, the China National Coal Association emphasizes scientific production rhythm, improved coal supply quality, and industry self - discipline to balance the coal market. The steel industry shows a trend of reduced development but increased industrial concentration. Overseas, Trump plans to impose tariffs on products from Mexico and the EU, and may impose sanctions on Russia. In terms of supply and demand, mine - end inventories have decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, market confidence has improved, and the total inventory is moderately high. Technically, the weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract is bearish. It is recommended to treat the main coking coal contract as oscillating, as short - term price increases may face pressure due to high inventories and enhanced macro - disturbances [8] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Summary a. Market Review - The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines is 192.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 tons. The daily average output of 110 coal washing plants is 53.38 tons, an increase of 0.79 tons. The total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) is 1858.07 tons, a week - on - week increase of 46.92 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.85%. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 43 yuan/ton. The steel mill profitability rate is 60.17%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 28.14 percentage points. The daily average hot metal output is 242.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.79 tons [7] b. Market Outlook - Macroeconomic policies aim to balance the coal market and the steel industry shows a trend of reduced development. Overseas, tariff policies may impact the market. Supply - demand shows mine - end destocking and inventory transfer. Technically, the weekly K - line is bearish. The recommended strategy is to treat the main contract as oscillating [8] 2. Futures and Spot Market a. Futures Market - As of July 18, the coking coal futures contract open interest is 83.76 million hands, a week - on - week increase of 4.57 million hands. The price difference between the coking coal 1 - 9 contracts is 49.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.50 yuan/ton. The number of registered coking coal warehouse receipts is 500 hands, a week - on - week increase of 300 hands. The price difference between the main coke and coking coal contracts is 592.00, a week - on - week decrease of 14.50 points [14][20] b. Spot Market - As of July 17, 2025, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port is 1280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is 980 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. As of July 18, the coking coal basis is 61.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.50 [24] 3. Industrial Chain Situation a. Coal Mine End - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 86.1%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6%. The daily average output of raw coal is 192.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 tons, and the raw coal inventory is 615.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27.6 tons. The daily average output of clean coal is 77.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 tons, and the clean coal inventory is 339.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38.1 tons. The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is 62.85%, an increase of 0.53%. The daily average output is 53.38 tons, an increase of 0.79 tons. The raw coal inventory is 298.69 tons, a decrease of 2.08 tons, and the clean coal inventory is 191.54 tons, a decrease of 5.53 tons [30] b. Total Coking Coal Inventory - The total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) is 1858.07 tons, a week - on - week increase of 46.92 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.85%. The inventory of 230 independent coking enterprises shows an increase in coking coal inventory and available days [34] c. Port Inventory - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports is 553.50 tons, a decrease of 0.29 tons. The coke inventory at 18 ports is 252.71 tons, a decrease of 2.97 tons [38] d. Downstream Situation - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 242.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.79 tons. The steel mill profitability rate is 60.17%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 28.14 percentage points [42] e. Independent Coking Plants - The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 43 yuan/ton. Different regions have different profit situations, with Shandong showing a profit and Inner Mongolia showing a large loss [47] f. Upstream Situation - From January to June, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above the designated size is 24.0 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In June, the output is 4.2 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%, with a daily average output of 1404 million tons. In May 2025, China's coking coal output is 4070.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.45%. From January to May, the cumulative import of coking coal is 4379.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.17% [52][56]