Core Viewpoint - Indonesia, the world's largest exporter of thermal coal, is implementing new policies aimed at coal exports, including the restoration of export tariffs, adjustments to price benchmarks, and tighter foreign exchange management, which are expected to impact both international and domestic coal prices significantly [1][2][3] Policy Changes - The Indonesian government plans to reinstate export tariffs ranging from 1% to 5% starting in 2026, with discussions ongoing regarding a tiered implementation of tariffs at rates of 5%, 8%, and 11% [1] - A new regulation from the Trade Ministry adjusts the pricing mechanism for mineral product exports, which increases the rigidity of export tariff calculations, thereby constraining cost control and pricing flexibility for coal companies [2] - Stricter foreign exchange management will require resource exporters to deposit all foreign exchange earnings in state banks for at least one year, limiting their ability to convert these funds into local currency [3] Industry Impact - The combination of new tariffs, price benchmarks, and foreign exchange restrictions is expected to raise operational costs for coal companies, potentially reducing profit margins and weakening Indonesia's international competitiveness [1][2] - Some coal producers may need to cut production or exit the export market if they cannot pass on the increased costs to downstream customers, particularly for low-calorific value coal [2][3] Market Dynamics - Despite the tightening of export regulations, the overall global coal demand is projected to grow slightly, with the International Energy Agency forecasting a 0.5% increase in global coal demand in 2025 [7] - However, the demand growth is expected to be concentrated in specific regions and coal types, which may not benefit Indonesia's low to medium calorific value coal exports [7] Effects on China Market - The new policies are likely to have a limited impact on China's thermal coal market, which is currently experiencing weak performance due to declining domestic coal prices and high inventory levels [8][9] - The anticipated increase in Indonesian coal costs may not lead to higher prices in China, as domestic coal remains competitive, and other countries like Mongolia and Russia are increasing their coal exports to China [8][9] Future Outlook - The Indonesian government aims to reduce mining quotas to support commodity prices, indicating a shift from expansion to optimization in the coal sector [4][6] - The coal market is expected to maintain a balanced supply-demand situation in 2026, with ongoing trends of renewable energy replacing thermal power and stable demand from industries like metallurgy and heating [11]

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia is tightening export controls on resource products, including palm oil, tin, and nickel, which is impacting global commodity pricing and market dynamics [1] Group 1: Palm Oil - As the world's largest producer and exporter of palm oil, Indonesia is using export restrictions, tax adjustments, and biodiesel blending policies to elevate global palm oil prices and increase price volatility [1] - The government's actions have led to a long-term increase in the price center of global palm oil [1] Group 2: Tin - Indonesia, being the second-largest tin supplier globally, has implemented strict measures against illegal tin mining, which has driven the LME three-month tin price to rise, reaching over $43,000 per ton by December 2025, a three-year high [1] Group 3: Nickel - As the largest nickel resource country, Indonesia's proposal to significantly reduce nickel ore supply quotas and adjust pricing rules is stimulating international nickel prices, which have rebounded from around $14,000 per ton to nearly $17,000 per ton by early 2026 [1] Group 4: Coal - Indonesia, the largest exporter of thermal coal, is reintroducing export tariffs, adjusting price benchmarks, and tightening foreign exchange management, which is raising concerns about the impact on international and domestic coal prices [1][2] - The new coal export policies are expected to increase operational costs for coal companies, potentially reducing Indonesia's international competitiveness [2][3] Group 5: Industry Confidence - The recent coal export policies are seen as a combination of measures that may negatively affect industry confidence, with coal producers expressing concerns over profit margins being squeezed due to increased costs [3][4] - The new regulations require resource exporters to deposit all foreign exchange earnings in state banks for at least one year, reducing cash flow flexibility for companies [4] Group 6: Market Dynamics - Despite the tightening of export regulations, global coal demand is not significantly contracting, with the IEA projecting a 0.5% increase in global coal demand in 2025 [7] - However, the tightening of export policies may weaken Indonesia's comparative advantage in the global coal trade, especially as major importing countries shift towards higher calorific value coal [7][8] Group 7: Impact on China - The new coal export policies from Indonesia are expected to have a limited impact on China's thermal coal market, which is currently experiencing weak conditions [8][9] - Analysts suggest that while Indonesia's policies may raise the cost of coal imports, they are unlikely to significantly drive up domestic coal prices in China due to existing market dynamics [9][10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the fluctuations in thermal coal prices during the heating season, with prices for different grades of coal showing a decline, indicating a natural volatility linked to weather and electricity demand [1][2][4] - The coal market is expected to reach a basic balance between supply and demand by 2026, with thermal coal prices projected to stabilize between 700 to 900 yuan per ton, influenced by seasonal demand fluctuations [1][4] - The "anti-involution" measures implemented by the government have successfully curbed excessive competition and brought coal prices back to a reasonable range, ensuring the stable and healthy development of the industry [2][3] Group 2 - Current coal prices are seen as more reflective of actual supply and demand dynamics, following a significant drop that has eliminated previous inflated prices, which is beneficial for the long-term health of the coal industry [4] - The coal production in major regions has shown a trend of negative growth, indicating effective constraints on production capacity, which has alleviated previous supply pressures [4][6] - The profitability of coal enterprises has become increasingly polarized, with large companies maintaining stable profits due to lower costs and integrated operations, while smaller firms face losses [6] Group 3 - The government has developed more mature and refined regulatory measures for coal prices, which have been effective in stabilizing market expectations and preventing drastic price fluctuations [5][6] - Companies are encouraged to adopt proactive planning and compliance with safety regulations, while also exploring differentiation and market niches to enhance competitiveness [6] - The need for improved mechanisms to manage the impact of imported coal on the domestic market and to flexibly adjust coal production capacity based on demand fluctuations is emphasized [6]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Coal Daily Report, dated November 27, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao, with从业资格号 F3068848 and investment consulting资格证号 Z0017786 [5] - Contact: zhangmengchao_qh@chinastock.com.cn [5] - Data Source: Galaxy Futures [6] Group 2: Market Review - On November 27, the port market showed a weak downward trend, with the price ranges of major coal types generally moving down and the trading atmosphere being cold [2] - The quoted prices of 5500 - kcal, 5000 - kcal, and 4500 - kcal coal in different regions are provided, including ports, Inner Mongolia, Yulin, Shanxi, and Jiangnei ports [2] Group 3: Important News - From January to October this year, national railways cumulatively transported 3.378 billion tons of goods, a year - on - year increase of 3%, setting a record high for the same period; the average daily loading was 186,000 wagons, a year - on - year increase of 4% [3] Group 4: Logic Analysis Supply - The impact of production restrictions still exists. The coal mine operating rates in major coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia are generally stable. As of November 26, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin was 46%. The daily average coal output of Ordos and Yulin exceeded 4 million tons, and the domestic supply is becoming more abundant [4] - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has lowered the coal production target to 700 million tons, but the actual implementation still depends on China's demand [4] Demand - This week, the demand performance is mediocre. China's procurement demand has weakened, Japan and South Korea's procurement is average, and India's procurement demand has not improved [4] - The recent cold snap has significantly affected power demand, and the daily consumption of terminal power plants has increased significantly. In the next 10 days, cold air activities will be frequent, and the heating power demand is expected to further increase, with the daily consumption of downstream power plants likely to continue rising [4] Inventory - Railway transportation has returned to normal. The average daily transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Line is 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved wagons by the Hohhot Railway Bureau is around 30 trains. The port inventory is generally stable. As of November 26, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was 25.12 million tons, returning to the high level of the same period [4] - The daily consumption of coastal power plants is low, but the inventory is continuously decreasing, while the inventory of inland power plants is at a medium level [4] Overall Situation - In late November, the coal production in major producing areas is running at a low level. The coal operating rates in Ordos and Yulin are stable, with a daily average output of around 4.2 million tons, and the supply is tightening [4] - The inventory of power plants is continuously decreasing, the import profit is available, the procurement intensity of coastal power plants has weakened, the port inflow is high, the outflow is low, and the port inventory has increased rapidly [4] - Currently, the temperature across the country is relatively high, the daily consumption of power plants is hovering at a low level, and the coal consumption is average. However, the inventory of coastal power plants is lower than that of the same period, and they continue to make rigid - demand purchases. The port FOB price has weakly corrected [4] - After the safety supervision at the mine mouth is lifted, the coal mine operating rate increases, the output increases, the demand for chemical coal is acceptable, and the mine - mouth price has weakly declined. It is expected that the coal price will be weak in the short term [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that coal prices will remain stable in the short - term. Although the supply is tightening with low production in major coal - producing areas, the demand growth is limited due to the overall economic situation. The port inventory is stable, and the power plants' inventory is in different states. The coastal power plants are increasing procurement, but the daily coal consumption is low [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - On November 21, the port market showed a sideways shock pattern. Affected by gale - induced navigation closures, the inventory in Bohai Rim ports increased significantly, and some ports restricted unloading. The prices of different calorific value coal in ports, Inner Mongolia, Yulin, Shanxi, and Jiangnei ports are provided [2]. Important Information - According to the National Bureau of Statistics on November 14, the power production of industrial enterprises above designated size in China accelerated. In October, the power generation was 800.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, 6.4 percentage points faster than in September. From January to October, the power generation was 8062.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 2.3% [3]. Logical Analysis - **Supply**: The impact of production restrictions still exists. The coal mine operating rates in major coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia are generally stable. As of November 20, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin was 46%. The daily coal output in Ordos and Yulin was over 3.9 million tons, and the domestic supply tightened overall. - **Import**: China's demand weakened, but international coal prices still rose. - **Demand**: This week, the demand was average. China's procurement demand weakened, Japan and South Korea's procurement was average, and India's procurement demand showed no improvement. The precipitation in Indonesia affected the supply, and the overseas cargo volume was small, with miners having a strong willingness to hold prices. The demand for heating coal increased significantly with the arrival of winter, but the coal - consumption demand in the industrial sector was lackluster due to the overall economic situation. Power plants were cautious in procurement, mainly locking in coal sources through long - term contracts and adjusting market coal purchases according to market dynamics. - **Inventory**: Railway transportation returned to normal. The average daily transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao line was 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved trains by the Hohhot Railway Bureau was around 30. The port inventory was generally stable. As of November 21, the inventory in Bohai Rim ports was 24.48 million tons, at a neutral level over the years. The daily consumption of coastal power plants was low, but the inventory was continuously decreasing, while the inventory of inland power plants was at a neutral level. - **Overall Situation**: In late November, the coal production in major producing areas was low. The coal mine operating rates in Ordos and Yulin were stable, with a daily output of around 3.8 million tons, and the supply tightened. The power plant inventory was continuously decreasing, and the import profit was available. Coastal power plants increased procurement. The port inventory fluctuated within a range. The daily coal consumption of power plants was low, but the coastal power plant inventory was lower than the same period, with continuous rigid - demand procurement. The port FOB price rose continuously. The coal mine operating rate was low due to strengthened safety supervision at the mine mouth, and the chemical coal demand was okay, with the increase of the mine - mouth price narrowing. It is expected that coal prices will remain stable in the short - term [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Views - The coal market is experiencing a steady upward trend, with prices for thermal coal and coking coal showing increases as of August 1. For instance, the Yulin 5800 kcal index reached 545.0 CNY/ton, up by 34.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [11][12]. - The report highlights that the overall supply of coal is tightening due to production limitations caused by rainfall and some mines completing their monthly production tasks, leading to a decrease in inventory levels [11][12]. - Despite weak downstream demand, strong cost support is expected to keep prices stable with a slight upward trend in the short term. The report anticipates that the price gap between long-term contracts and spot prices will narrow [11][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Views - The thermal coal market is on a continuous rise, with significant price increases noted for various indices [11]. - The coking coal market has seen stable prices, with no week-on-week changes reported for several indices [11]. - The report suggests that the coal market is expected to maintain a steady and slightly upward price trend in the short term [11]. 2. Coal Sector Performance and Stock Review - The coal mining sector's performance has been mixed, with the coal mining and washing index declining by 4.48% while major coal companies experienced varying degrees of stock price changes [12][14]. - Notable declines were observed in companies like Zhengzhou Coal Electricity and Shanxi Coking Coal, with drops of 9.67% and 9.01% respectively [12]. 3. Important Announcements and News - China Shenhua is planning a significant acquisition of assets from its controlling shareholder, which includes coal, coal power, and coal chemical assets, with the stock expected to be suspended for up to 10 trading days [2][15]. - Gansu Energy has received approval to resume production at its Wangjiashan coal mine, which had been previously halted due to safety concerns [17]. 4. Dynamic Data Tracking - As of August 1, the daily coal consumption of the six major coastal power plants was reported at 898,000 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week, while total inventory increased to 13.963 million tons [3][11]. - The report provides detailed tracking of coal prices at ports and production sites, indicating a general upward trend in pricing [3][19]. 5. Key Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key coal companies, highlighting metrics such as total market capitalization, net profit, and PE ratios for companies like China Shenhua and Shanxi Coal [41].

Report Information - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Market Performance Summary 1.1 Futures Contracts Performance - On July 31, the main contract 2509 of coke futures significantly declined, erasing the gains from the previous two trading days or since July 22. The main contract 2509 of coking coal futures oscillated downward and hit the daily limit in the afternoon, erasing all gains since July 23. The closing price of J2509 was 1601 yuan/ton, down 4.93%, with a trading volume of 42,135 lots and a position volume of 28,705 lots, a decrease of 653 lots. The closing price of JM2509 was 1045.5 yuan/ton, down 7.97%, with a trading volume of 987,871 lots and a position volume of 284,647 lots, a decrease of 23,096 lots [5]. 1.2 Black - Series Futures Position - The position data of the top 20 long and short positions in black - series futures on July 31 showed different changes in various contracts. For example, in the RB2510 contract, the top 20 long positions decreased by 174,240 lots, and the top 20 short positions decreased by 122,370 lots, with a long - short difference of - 51,870 lots and a deviation of - 4.51% [6]. 2. Spot Market and Technical Analysis 2.1 Spot Market Prices - On July 31, the quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke flat - price index in Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1420 yuan/ton, with no change. The low - sulfur main coking coal aggregate price in different regions had different performances, with the price in Lvliang increasing by 80 yuan/ton [8]. 2.2 Technical Indicators - On July 31, the daily KDJ indicators of the 2509 contracts of coke and coking coal both declined. The daily MACD red bars of the 2509 contracts of coke and coking coal narrowed for 4 consecutive trading days, and the daily MACD of the coke 2509 contract was nearly a death cross [8]. 3. Market Outlook 3.1 Coke Market - The coke production of independent coking plants has been rising for two consecutive weeks, reaching a new low since early April. The coke production of steel mills has slightly increased from the low point since late February. The coke inventories of ports and steel mills are hovering at low levels since early March and late December last year respectively, while the coking plant inventory has declined for 7 consecutive weeks, reaching a new low since early January. The profit per ton of coke has been in the red for 10 consecutive weeks, and the third round of coke spot price increases was implemented on July 25 [10]. 3.2 Coking Coal Market - From January to June, China's coking coal imports still maintained a large year - on - year decline of - 7.4%. In the past 6 weeks, the raw coal and clean coal inventories of coal washing plants have significantly declined, with decreases of 13.0% and 30.2% respectively. The inventory of independent coking plants has been rising significantly for 5 consecutive weeks, reaching a new high since early February. The port inventory has returned to the previous low - level range, and the steel mill inventory has increased for 2 consecutive weeks. With the continuous increase in steel mill inventory, coking plants have actively and significantly replenished their stocks, and the coking coal spot price has generally increased by 130 - 280 yuan/ton compared with late June [10]. 3.3 Overall Outlook - Checking coal mine production is beneficial for stabilizing coal supply and effectively managing the low - price and disorderly competition in the coal industry. The supply - demand expectation in the coal market has changed from oversupply before June to a contraction in domestic supply. After the recent significant rebound and subsequent decline in coke and coking coal futures prices, in the short term, their prices may follow steel futures. Attention should be paid to the changes in the supply - demand relationship in the coke market after the implementation of the third round of coke spot price increases and the increase or decrease in coking plants' coking coal inventory. If the demand weakens after the third round of coke price increases or the coking plants' coking coal inventory starts to decline significantly, the future market for coking products may not be optimistic. If the demand remains good or even increases after the third round of price increases, or the coking plants' coking coal inventory remains stable or continues to be replenished, there is still a possibility of a further increase in the future market for coking products [11]. 4. Industry News 4.1 Government Policies and Market Conditions - In June 2025, the national issuance of new bonds was 628.1 billion yuan, including 101 billion yuan of general bonds and 527.1 billion yuan of special bonds. The issuance of refinancing bonds was 547.2 billion yuan, including 267.4 billion yuan of general bonds and 279.8 billion yuan of special bonds. As of the end of June 2025, the national local government debt balance was 51.9503 trillion yuan [12]. - The deputy director of the General Affairs Department of the National Energy Administration, Zhang Xing, stated on July 31 that since this year, the coal market in China has been generally balanced with a slight oversupply. Since July, the daily scheduled coal production has remained above 12 million tons. Currently, the coal inventory of national unified - dispatch power plants exceeds 200 million tons, which can be used for 30 days. The National Energy Administration will guide coal - producing provinces and enterprises to continue to organize production, scientifically formulate production plans, and ensure coal supply [12][13]. - In the first half of 2025, the national power market operated smoothly, with the scale of market - traded electricity and the number of market players continuing to grow steadily. The total market - traded electricity of all power trading centers was 2.95 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. As of the end of June, the number of national power market business entities was 973,000, a year - on - year increase of 23.8% [13]. - In the first half of this year, China's energy infrastructure construction maintained a good momentum. The investment in key energy projects under construction and planned to start this year exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 21.6%. The investment growth rates in the eastern, central, and western regions all exceeded 20%, and private enterprise investment maintained rapid growth [13]. 4.2 Company Announcements - In the first half of 2025, China Energy Investment Corporation completed coal production and sales of 374 million tons, power generation of 580.6 billion kWh, railway freight volume of 276 million tons, and chemical product output of 13.55 million tons [13]. - In the second quarter of 2025, Jiantou Energy completed power generation of 11.615 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 0.67%, and completed on - grid electricity of 10.764 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 1%. The company expects its operating performance in the first half of 2025 to increase significantly year - on - year [13]. - Gansu Energy Chemical Industry's Wangjiashan Coal Mine No. 1 Well has been approved to resume production [14]. - Wanneng Electric Power's coal procurement cost in the second quarter decreased more significantly year - on - year compared with the first quarter. The company's total installed capacity exceeds 17 million kilowatts, and it is currently not considering absorbing and merging its affiliated power plants, while its new energy projects are progressing as expected [14]. - In the first half of 2025, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Ltd. produced 14.5297 million tons of raw coal, a year - on - year increase of 2.26%. The sales volume of commercial coal was 11.7369 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.98% [14]. 4.3 International Market Forecast - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global electricity demand will increase by 3.3% and 3.7% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, more than twice the growth rate of total energy demand in the same period [14]. 5. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke in major markets, the aggregate price of main coking coal in major markets, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, national average daily pig iron production, coke inventories of ports/steel mills/coking plants, independent coking plant's profit per ton of coke, production and operating rate of coal washing plants, raw coal and clean coal inventories of coal washing plants, coking coal inventories of ports/coking plants/steel mills, and the basis between Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke and the September contract, as well as the basis between Linfen's low - sulfur main coking coal and the September contract [15][17][21][29][30][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, the China National Coal Association emphasizes scientific production rhythm, improved coal supply quality, and industry self - discipline to balance the coal market. The steel industry shows a trend of reduced development but increased industrial concentration. Overseas, Trump plans to impose tariffs on products from Mexico and the EU, and may impose sanctions on Russia. In terms of supply and demand, mine - end inventories have decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, market confidence has improved, and the total inventory is moderately high. Technically, the weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract is bearish. It is recommended to treat the main coking coal contract as oscillating, as short - term price increases may face pressure due to high inventories and enhanced macro - disturbances [8] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Summary a. Market Review - The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines is 192.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 tons. The daily average output of 110 coal washing plants is 53.38 tons, an increase of 0.79 tons. The total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) is 1858.07 tons, a week - on - week increase of 46.92 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.85%. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 43 yuan/ton. The steel mill profitability rate is 60.17%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 28.14 percentage points. The daily average hot metal output is 242.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.79 tons [7] b. Market Outlook - Macroeconomic policies aim to balance the coal market and the steel industry shows a trend of reduced development. Overseas, tariff policies may impact the market. Supply - demand shows mine - end destocking and inventory transfer. Technically, the weekly K - line is bearish. The recommended strategy is to treat the main contract as oscillating [8] 2. Futures and Spot Market a. Futures Market - As of July 18, the coking coal futures contract open interest is 83.76 million hands, a week - on - week increase of 4.57 million hands. The price difference between the coking coal 1 - 9 contracts is 49.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.50 yuan/ton. The number of registered coking coal warehouse receipts is 500 hands, a week - on - week increase of 300 hands. The price difference between the main coke and coking coal contracts is 592.00, a week - on - week decrease of 14.50 points [14][20] b. Spot Market - As of July 17, 2025, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port is 1280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is 980 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. As of July 18, the coking coal basis is 61.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.50 [24] 3. Industrial Chain Situation a. Coal Mine End - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 86.1%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6%. The daily average output of raw coal is 192.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 tons, and the raw coal inventory is 615.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27.6 tons. The daily average output of clean coal is 77.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 tons, and the clean coal inventory is 339.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38.1 tons. The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is 62.85%, an increase of 0.53%. The daily average output is 53.38 tons, an increase of 0.79 tons. The raw coal inventory is 298.69 tons, a decrease of 2.08 tons, and the clean coal inventory is 191.54 tons, a decrease of 5.53 tons [30] b. Total Coking Coal Inventory - The total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) is 1858.07 tons, a week - on - week increase of 46.92 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.85%. The inventory of 230 independent coking enterprises shows an increase in coking coal inventory and available days [34] c. Port Inventory - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports is 553.50 tons, a decrease of 0.29 tons. The coke inventory at 18 ports is 252.71 tons, a decrease of 2.97 tons [38] d. Downstream Situation - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 242.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.79 tons. The steel mill profitability rate is 60.17%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 28.14 percentage points [42] e. Independent Coking Plants - The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 43 yuan/ton. Different regions have different profit situations, with Shandong showing a profit and Inner Mongolia showing a large loss [47] f. Upstream Situation - From January to June, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above the designated size is 24.0 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In June, the output is 4.2 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%, with a daily average output of 1404 million tons. In May 2025, China's coking coal output is 4070.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.45%. From January to May, the cumulative import of coking coal is 4379.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.17% [52][56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - On July 17, the closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 918.5, up 1.55%. The Mongolian 5 raw coal in the spot market was reported at 785. The China National Coal Transportation and Marketing Association emphasized scientific production rhythm, improving coal supply quality, and promoting market balance. The mine - end inventory decreased, market confidence improved, and the coking coal inventory was transferred downstream. The import cumulative growth rate decreased, and the total inventory was neutral. The 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated with a bullish - biased range - bound approach [2]. - On July 17, the closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1519.0, up 1.00%. Some regions proposed a price increase. Jiangsu Province planned to increase the proportion of short - process steelmaking production to over 20% in 2025 and reduce coal consumption by about 5% compared to 2020. The raw material supply improved, iron - water production declined slightly from a high level, most coal mines had no inventory pressure and were willing to hold prices. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 63 yuan/ton. The 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated with a bullish - biased range - bound approach [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 918.50 yuan/ton, up 21.50; the closing price of the J main contract was 1519.00 yuan/ton, up 24.50 [2]. - The JM futures contract open interest was 850792.00 lots, up 5330.00; the J futures contract open interest was 54981.00 lots, down 196.00 [2]. - The net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 62188.00 lots, up 15289.00; the net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts was - 3702.00 lots, up 137.00 [2]. - The JM1 - 9 month contract spread was 49.50 yuan/ton, up 3.00; the J1 - 9 month contract spread was 40.00 yuan/ton, down 4.00 [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 1600.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipts were 760.00, up 670.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at Ganqimao Port was 785.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00; the price of Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1390.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 120.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian prime coking coal imported at Jingtang Port was 1330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke was 1320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1410.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the J main contract basis was - 129.00 yuan/ton, down 24.50 [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 960.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the JM main contract basis was 11.50 yuan/ton, down 21.50 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants was 298.69 million tons, down 2.08; the clean coal inventory was 191.54 million tons, down 5.53 [2]. - The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 62.85%, up 0.52; the raw coal production was 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00 [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 3303.70 million tons, down 300.30; the daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 192.90, up 1.10 [2]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 553.79 million tons, up 29.08; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 255.68 million tons, up 13.66 [2]. 3.4 National Industrial Situation - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises was 892.35 million tons, up 44.17; the inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises was 93.08 million tons, down 9.02 [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 782.93 million tons, down 6.67; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 637.80 million tons, up 0.31 [2]. - The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises were 12.48 days, down 0.03; the available days of coke for 247 steel mills were 11.64 days, up 0.12 [2]. - The import volume of coking coal was 738.69 million tons, down 150.65; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 0.00 million tons, down 68.00 [2]. - The production of coking coal was 4070.27 million tons, up 144.11; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 72.87%, down 0.30 [2]. - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 63.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00; the coke production was 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 [2]. 3.5 National Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, down 0.31; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 89.87%, down 0.40 [2]. - The crude steel production was 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Jiangsu Province issued the 2025 Air Pollution Prevention and Control Work Plan, aiming for short - process steelmaking production to account for over 20% in 2025 and a 5% reduction in coal consumption compared to 2020 [2]. - The World Gold Council reported that more central banks were buying gold directly from local gold mines with local currencies [2]. - As of June 30, the installed power capacity in Zhejiang Province reached 165 million kilowatts, with renewable energy accounting for over 50%, and photovoltaic installed capacity becoming the largest power source, up 53.4% year - on - year [2]. - The EU proposed a nearly 2 - trillion - euro seven - year budget, with 4505 billion euros for the EU Competitiveness Fund [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 16, the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 897.0, down 1.48%. The spot price of Meng 5 raw coal was reported at 783, up 1 yuan/ton. With the overall decline in mine inventories, improved market confidence, and better downstream purchasing willingness, coking coal should be treated with a bullish bias in a volatile market [2]. - On July 16, the coke 2509 contract closed at 1494.5, down 1.45%. The spot price was raised in some regions. With the improvement of raw - material supply and a slight decline in hot - metal production, coke should also be treated with a bullish bias in a volatile market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为897.00元/吨，环比下跌14.50元；J主力合约收盘价为1494.50元/吨，环比下跌19.50元 [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量为845462.00手，环比增加30539.00手；J期货合约持仓量为55177.00手，环比增加492.00手 [2]. - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 60314.00手，环比增加1256.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为 - 3642.00手，环比增加392.00手 [2]. - JM1 - 9月合约价差为46.50元/吨，环比下跌4.00元；J1 - 9月合约价差为44.00元/吨，环比下跌2.50元 [2]. - 焦煤仓单为1600.00张，无环比变化；焦炭仓单为90.00张，无环比变化 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为783.00元/吨，环比上涨3.00元；俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）为120.00美元/湿吨，环比上涨2.00美元 [2]. - 唐山准一级冶金焦价格为1390.00元/吨，无环比变化；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1220.00元/吨，无环比变化 [2]. - JM主力合约基差为33.00元/吨，环比上涨14.50元；J主力合约基差为 - 104.50元/吨，环比上涨19.50元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 110家洗煤厂原煤库存为298.69万吨，环比下降2.08万吨；110家洗煤厂精煤库存为191.54万吨，环比下降5.53万吨 [2]. - 110家洗煤厂开工率为62.85%，环比上涨0.52%；原煤产量为42107.00万吨，环比增加1778.60万吨 [2]. - 煤及褐煤进口量为3303.70万吨，环比下降300.30万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为191.80万吨，环比增加3.80万吨 [2]. 3.4 National Industry Situation - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为553.79万吨，环比增加29.08万吨；焦炭18个港口库存为255.68万吨，环比增加13.66万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为892.35万吨，环比增加44.17万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭库存为93.08万吨，环比下降9.02万吨 [2]. - 247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为782.93万吨，环比下降6.67万吨；全国247家样本钢厂焦炭库存为637.80万吨，环比增加0.31万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.48天，环比下降0.03天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.64天，环比增加0.12天 [2]. - 炼焦煤进口量为738.69万吨，环比下降150.65万吨；焦炭及半焦炭出口量为0.00万吨，环比下降68.00万吨 [2]. - 炼焦煤产量为4070.27万吨，环比增加144.11万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为72.87%，环比下降0.30% [2]. - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况为 - 63.00元/吨，环比下降11.00元；焦炭产量为4170.00万吨，环比下降67.60万吨 [2]. 3.5 National Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.13%，环比下降0.31%；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为89.87%，环比下降0.40% [2]. - 粗钢产量为8318.00万吨，环比下降336.50万吨 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 15, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin raised the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, to be implemented at 0:00 on July 17, 2025 [2]. - Trump said that an agreement was reached with Indonesia, where Indonesian goods exported to the US will pay a 19% tariff, while US exports are tariff - free [2]. - Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that relevant departments are formulating measures to strengthen the regulation of market order, which is conducive to improving market supply - demand relations and promoting a reasonable price rebound [2]. - From January to June, infrastructure investment increased by 4.6% year - on - year; manufacturing investment increased by 7.5% year - on - year; real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year [2]. - Sheng Laiyun said that domestic demand was the main driving force for China's economic growth in the first half of the year. Consumption policies will be further strengthened in the second half of the year. There is still great potential for fixed - asset investment, and prices will rise moderately at a low level [2].