Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Views - The coal market is experiencing a steady upward trend, with prices for thermal coal and coking coal showing increases as of August 1. For instance, the Yulin 5800 kcal index reached 545.0 CNY/ton, up by 34.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [11][12]. - The report highlights that the overall supply of coal is tightening due to production limitations caused by rainfall and some mines completing their monthly production tasks, leading to a decrease in inventory levels [11][12]. - Despite weak downstream demand, strong cost support is expected to keep prices stable with a slight upward trend in the short term. The report anticipates that the price gap between long-term contracts and spot prices will narrow [11][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Views - The thermal coal market is on a continuous rise, with significant price increases noted for various indices [11]. - The coking coal market has seen stable prices, with no week-on-week changes reported for several indices [11]. - The report suggests that the coal market is expected to maintain a steady and slightly upward price trend in the short term [11]. 2. Coal Sector Performance and Stock Review - The coal mining sector's performance has been mixed, with the coal mining and washing index declining by 4.48% while major coal companies experienced varying degrees of stock price changes [12][14]. - Notable declines were observed in companies like Zhengzhou Coal Electricity and Shanxi Coking Coal, with drops of 9.67% and 9.01% respectively [12]. 3. Important Announcements and News - China Shenhua is planning a significant acquisition of assets from its controlling shareholder, which includes coal, coal power, and coal chemical assets, with the stock expected to be suspended for up to 10 trading days [2][15]. - Gansu Energy has received approval to resume production at its Wangjiashan coal mine, which had been previously halted due to safety concerns [17]. 4. Dynamic Data Tracking - As of August 1, the daily coal consumption of the six major coastal power plants was reported at 898,000 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week, while total inventory increased to 13.963 million tons [3][11]. - The report provides detailed tracking of coal prices at ports and production sites, indicating a general upward trend in pricing [3][19]. 5. Key Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key coal companies, highlighting metrics such as total market capitalization, net profit, and PE ratios for companies like China Shenhua and Shanxi Coal [41].

Report Information - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Market Performance Summary 1.1 Futures Contracts Performance - On July 31, the main contract 2509 of coke futures significantly declined, erasing the gains from the previous two trading days or since July 22. The main contract 2509 of coking coal futures oscillated downward and hit the daily limit in the afternoon, erasing all gains since July 23. The closing price of J2509 was 1601 yuan/ton, down 4.93%, with a trading volume of 42,135 lots and a position volume of 28,705 lots, a decrease of 653 lots. The closing price of JM2509 was 1045.5 yuan/ton, down 7.97%, with a trading volume of 987,871 lots and a position volume of 284,647 lots, a decrease of 23,096 lots [5]. 1.2 Black - Series Futures Position - The position data of the top 20 long and short positions in black - series futures on July 31 showed different changes in various contracts. For example, in the RB2510 contract, the top 20 long positions decreased by 174,240 lots, and the top 20 short positions decreased by 122,370 lots, with a long - short difference of - 51,870 lots and a deviation of - 4.51% [6]. 2. Spot Market and Technical Analysis 2.1 Spot Market Prices - On July 31, the quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke flat - price index in Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1420 yuan/ton, with no change. The low - sulfur main coking coal aggregate price in different regions had different performances, with the price in Lvliang increasing by 80 yuan/ton [8]. 2.2 Technical Indicators - On July 31, the daily KDJ indicators of the 2509 contracts of coke and coking coal both declined. The daily MACD red bars of the 2509 contracts of coke and coking coal narrowed for 4 consecutive trading days, and the daily MACD of the coke 2509 contract was nearly a death cross [8]. 3. Market Outlook 3.1 Coke Market - The coke production of independent coking plants has been rising for two consecutive weeks, reaching a new low since early April. The coke production of steel mills has slightly increased from the low point since late February. The coke inventories of ports and steel mills are hovering at low levels since early March and late December last year respectively, while the coking plant inventory has declined for 7 consecutive weeks, reaching a new low since early January. The profit per ton of coke has been in the red for 10 consecutive weeks, and the third round of coke spot price increases was implemented on July 25 [10]. 3.2 Coking Coal Market - From January to June, China's coking coal imports still maintained a large year - on - year decline of - 7.4%. In the past 6 weeks, the raw coal and clean coal inventories of coal washing plants have significantly declined, with decreases of 13.0% and 30.2% respectively. The inventory of independent coking plants has been rising significantly for 5 consecutive weeks, reaching a new high since early February. The port inventory has returned to the previous low - level range, and the steel mill inventory has increased for 2 consecutive weeks. With the continuous increase in steel mill inventory, coking plants have actively and significantly replenished their stocks, and the coking coal spot price has generally increased by 130 - 280 yuan/ton compared with late June [10]. 3.3 Overall Outlook - Checking coal mine production is beneficial for stabilizing coal supply and effectively managing the low - price and disorderly competition in the coal industry. The supply - demand expectation in the coal market has changed from oversupply before June to a contraction in domestic supply. After the recent significant rebound and subsequent decline in coke and coking coal futures prices, in the short term, their prices may follow steel futures. Attention should be paid to the changes in the supply - demand relationship in the coke market after the implementation of the third round of coke spot price increases and the increase or decrease in coking plants' coking coal inventory. If the demand weakens after the third round of coke price increases or the coking plants' coking coal inventory starts to decline significantly, the future market for coking products may not be optimistic. If the demand remains good or even increases after the third round of price increases, or the coking plants' coking coal inventory remains stable or continues to be replenished, there is still a possibility of a further increase in the future market for coking products [11]. 4. Industry News 4.1 Government Policies and Market Conditions - In June 2025, the national issuance of new bonds was 628.1 billion yuan, including 101 billion yuan of general bonds and 527.1 billion yuan of special bonds. The issuance of refinancing bonds was 547.2 billion yuan, including 267.4 billion yuan of general bonds and 279.8 billion yuan of special bonds. As of the end of June 2025, the national local government debt balance was 51.9503 trillion yuan [12]. - The deputy director of the General Affairs Department of the National Energy Administration, Zhang Xing, stated on July 31 that since this year, the coal market in China has been generally balanced with a slight oversupply. Since July, the daily scheduled coal production has remained above 12 million tons. Currently, the coal inventory of national unified - dispatch power plants exceeds 200 million tons, which can be used for 30 days. The National Energy Administration will guide coal - producing provinces and enterprises to continue to organize production, scientifically formulate production plans, and ensure coal supply [12][13]. - In the first half of 2025, the national power market operated smoothly, with the scale of market - traded electricity and the number of market players continuing to grow steadily. The total market - traded electricity of all power trading centers was 2.95 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. As of the end of June, the number of national power market business entities was 973,000, a year - on - year increase of 23.8% [13]. - In the first half of this year, China's energy infrastructure construction maintained a good momentum. The investment in key energy projects under construction and planned to start this year exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 21.6%. The investment growth rates in the eastern, central, and western regions all exceeded 20%, and private enterprise investment maintained rapid growth [13]. 4.2 Company Announcements - In the first half of 2025, China Energy Investment Corporation completed coal production and sales of 374 million tons, power generation of 580.6 billion kWh, railway freight volume of 276 million tons, and chemical product output of 13.55 million tons [13]. - In the second quarter of 2025, Jiantou Energy completed power generation of 11.615 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 0.67%, and completed on - grid electricity of 10.764 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 1%. The company expects its operating performance in the first half of 2025 to increase significantly year - on - year [13]. - Gansu Energy Chemical Industry's Wangjiashan Coal Mine No. 1 Well has been approved to resume production [14]. - Wanneng Electric Power's coal procurement cost in the second quarter decreased more significantly year - on - year compared with the first quarter. The company's total installed capacity exceeds 17 million kilowatts, and it is currently not considering absorbing and merging its affiliated power plants, while its new energy projects are progressing as expected [14]. - In the first half of 2025, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Ltd. produced 14.5297 million tons of raw coal, a year - on - year increase of 2.26%. The sales volume of commercial coal was 11.7369 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.98% [14]. 4.3 International Market Forecast - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global electricity demand will increase by 3.3% and 3.7% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, more than twice the growth rate of total energy demand in the same period [14]. 5. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke in major markets, the aggregate price of main coking coal in major markets, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, national average daily pig iron production, coke inventories of ports/steel mills/coking plants, independent coking plant's profit per ton of coke, production and operating rate of coal washing plants, raw coal and clean coal inventories of coal washing plants, coking coal inventories of ports/coking plants/steel mills, and the basis between Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke and the September contract, as well as the basis between Linfen's low - sulfur main coking coal and the September contract [15][17][21][29][30][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, the China National Coal Association emphasizes scientific production rhythm, improved coal supply quality, and industry self - discipline to balance the coal market. The steel industry shows a trend of reduced development but increased industrial concentration. Overseas, Trump plans to impose tariffs on products from Mexico and the EU, and may impose sanctions on Russia. In terms of supply and demand, mine - end inventories have decreased for 4 consecutive weeks, market confidence has improved, and the total inventory is moderately high. Technically, the weekly K - line of the coking coal main contract is bearish. It is recommended to treat the main coking coal contract as oscillating, as short - term price increases may face pressure due to high inventories and enhanced macro - disturbances [8] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Summary a. Market Review - The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines is 192.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 tons. The daily average output of 110 coal washing plants is 53.38 tons, an increase of 0.79 tons. The total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) is 1858.07 tons, a week - on - week increase of 46.92 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.85%. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 43 yuan/ton. The steel mill profitability rate is 60.17%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 28.14 percentage points. The daily average hot metal output is 242.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.79 tons [7] b. Market Outlook - Macroeconomic policies aim to balance the coal market and the steel industry shows a trend of reduced development. Overseas, tariff policies may impact the market. Supply - demand shows mine - end destocking and inventory transfer. Technically, the weekly K - line is bearish. The recommended strategy is to treat the main contract as oscillating [8] 2. Futures and Spot Market a. Futures Market - As of July 18, the coking coal futures contract open interest is 83.76 million hands, a week - on - week increase of 4.57 million hands. The price difference between the coking coal 1 - 9 contracts is 49.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.50 yuan/ton. The number of registered coking coal warehouse receipts is 500 hands, a week - on - week increase of 300 hands. The price difference between the main coke and coking coal contracts is 592.00, a week - on - week decrease of 14.50 points [14][20] b. Spot Market - As of July 17, 2025, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port is 1280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is 980 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. As of July 18, the coking coal basis is 61.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.50 [24] 3. Industrial Chain Situation a. Coal Mine End - The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines is 86.1%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6%. The daily average output of raw coal is 192.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 tons, and the raw coal inventory is 615.3 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27.6 tons. The daily average output of clean coal is 77.0 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 tons, and the clean coal inventory is 339.1 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 38.1 tons. The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is 62.85%, an increase of 0.53%. The daily average output is 53.38 tons, an increase of 0.79 tons. The raw coal inventory is 298.69 tons, a decrease of 2.08 tons, and the clean coal inventory is 191.54 tons, a decrease of 5.53 tons [30] b. Total Coking Coal Inventory - The total coking coal inventory (independent coking plants + 6 major ports + steel mills) is 1858.07 tons, a week - on - week increase of 46.92 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.85%. The inventory of 230 independent coking enterprises shows an increase in coking coal inventory and available days [34] c. Port Inventory - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports is 553.50 tons, a decrease of 0.29 tons. The coke inventory at 18 ports is 252.71 tons, a decrease of 2.97 tons [38] d. Downstream Situation - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 242.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.63 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.79 tons. The steel mill profitability rate is 60.17%, a week - on - week increase of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 28.14 percentage points [42] e. Independent Coking Plants - The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 43 yuan/ton. Different regions have different profit situations, with Shandong showing a profit and Inner Mongolia showing a large loss [47] f. Upstream Situation - From January to June, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above the designated size is 24.0 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In June, the output is 4.2 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%, with a daily average output of 1404 million tons. In May 2025, China's coking coal output is 4070.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.45%. From January to May, the cumulative import of coking coal is 4379.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.17% [52][56]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - On July 17, the closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 918.5, up 1.55%. The Mongolian 5 raw coal in the spot market was reported at 785. The China National Coal Transportation and Marketing Association emphasized scientific production rhythm, improving coal supply quality, and promoting market balance. The mine - end inventory decreased, market confidence improved, and the coking coal inventory was transferred downstream. The import cumulative growth rate decreased, and the total inventory was neutral. The 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated with a bullish - biased range - bound approach [2]. - On July 17, the closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1519.0, up 1.00%. Some regions proposed a price increase. Jiangsu Province planned to increase the proportion of short - process steelmaking production to over 20% in 2025 and reduce coal consumption by about 5% compared to 2020. The raw material supply improved, iron - water production declined slightly from a high level, most coal mines had no inventory pressure and were willing to hold prices. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 63 yuan/ton. The 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated with a bullish - biased range - bound approach [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 918.50 yuan/ton, up 21.50; the closing price of the J main contract was 1519.00 yuan/ton, up 24.50 [2]. - The JM futures contract open interest was 850792.00 lots, up 5330.00; the J futures contract open interest was 54981.00 lots, down 196.00 [2]. - The net open interest of the top 20 coking coal contracts was - 62188.00 lots, up 15289.00; the net open interest of the top 20 coke contracts was - 3702.00 lots, up 137.00 [2]. - The JM1 - 9 month contract spread was 49.50 yuan/ton, up 3.00; the J1 - 9 month contract spread was 40.00 yuan/ton, down 4.00 [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 1600.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipts were 760.00, up 670.00 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at Ganqimao Port was 785.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00; the price of Tangshan quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1390.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 120.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian prime coking coal imported at Jingtang Port was 1330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port first - grade metallurgical coke was 1320.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1410.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 930.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the J main contract basis was - 129.00 yuan/ton, down 24.50 [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 960.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the JM main contract basis was 11.50 yuan/ton, down 21.50 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants was 298.69 million tons, down 2.08; the clean coal inventory was 191.54 million tons, down 5.53 [2]. - The operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 62.85%, up 0.52; the raw coal production was 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00 [2]. - The import volume of coal and lignite was 3303.70 million tons, down 300.30; the daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 192.90, up 1.10 [2]. - The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 553.79 million tons, up 29.08; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 255.68 million tons, up 13.66 [2]. 3.4 National Industrial Situation - The total inventory of coking coal of independent coking enterprises was 892.35 million tons, up 44.17; the inventory of coke of independent coking enterprises was 93.08 million tons, down 9.02 [2]. - The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 782.93 million tons, down 6.67; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 637.80 million tons, up 0.31 [2]. - The available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises were 12.48 days, down 0.03; the available days of coke for 247 steel mills were 11.64 days, up 0.12 [2]. - The import volume of coking coal was 738.69 million tons, down 150.65; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 0.00 million tons, down 68.00 [2]. - The production of coking coal was 4070.27 million tons, up 144.11; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 72.87%, down 0.30 [2]. - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 63.00 yuan/ton, down 11.00; the coke production was 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 [2]. 3.5 National Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, down 0.31; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 89.87%, down 0.40 [2]. - The crude steel production was 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Jiangsu Province issued the 2025 Air Pollution Prevention and Control Work Plan, aiming for short - process steelmaking production to account for over 20% in 2025 and a 5% reduction in coal consumption compared to 2020 [2]. - The World Gold Council reported that more central banks were buying gold directly from local gold mines with local currencies [2]. - As of June 30, the installed power capacity in Zhejiang Province reached 165 million kilowatts, with renewable energy accounting for over 50%, and photovoltaic installed capacity becoming the largest power source, up 53.4% year - on - year [2]. - The EU proposed a nearly 2 - trillion - euro seven - year budget, with 4505 billion euros for the EU Competitiveness Fund [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 16, the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 897.0, down 1.48%. The spot price of Meng 5 raw coal was reported at 783, up 1 yuan/ton. With the overall decline in mine inventories, improved market confidence, and better downstream purchasing willingness, coking coal should be treated with a bullish bias in a volatile market [2]. - On July 16, the coke 2509 contract closed at 1494.5, down 1.45%. The spot price was raised in some regions. With the improvement of raw - material supply and a slight decline in hot - metal production, coke should also be treated with a bullish bias in a volatile market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为897.00元/吨，环比下跌14.50元；J主力合约收盘价为1494.50元/吨，环比下跌19.50元 [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量为845462.00手，环比增加30539.00手；J期货合约持仓量为55177.00手，环比增加492.00手 [2]. - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 60314.00手，环比增加1256.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为 - 3642.00手，环比增加392.00手 [2]. - JM1 - 9月合约价差为46.50元/吨，环比下跌4.00元；J1 - 9月合约价差为44.00元/吨，环比下跌2.50元 [2]. - 焦煤仓单为1600.00张，无环比变化；焦炭仓单为90.00张，无环比变化 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为783.00元/吨，环比上涨3.00元；俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）为120.00美元/湿吨，环比上涨2.00美元 [2]. - 唐山准一级冶金焦价格为1390.00元/吨，无环比变化；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1220.00元/吨，无环比变化 [2]. - JM主力合约基差为33.00元/吨，环比上涨14.50元；J主力合约基差为 - 104.50元/吨，环比上涨19.50元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 110家洗煤厂原煤库存为298.69万吨，环比下降2.08万吨；110家洗煤厂精煤库存为191.54万吨，环比下降5.53万吨 [2]. - 110家洗煤厂开工率为62.85%，环比上涨0.52%；原煤产量为42107.00万吨，环比增加1778.60万吨 [2]. - 煤及褐煤进口量为3303.70万吨，环比下降300.30万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为191.80万吨，环比增加3.80万吨 [2]. 3.4 National Industry Situation - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为553.79万吨，环比增加29.08万吨；焦炭18个港口库存为255.68万吨，环比增加13.66万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为892.35万吨，环比增加44.17万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭库存为93.08万吨，环比下降9.02万吨 [2]. - 247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为782.93万吨，环比下降6.67万吨；全国247家样本钢厂焦炭库存为637.80万吨，环比增加0.31万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.48天，环比下降0.03天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.64天，环比增加0.12天 [2]. - 炼焦煤进口量为738.69万吨，环比下降150.65万吨；焦炭及半焦炭出口量为0.00万吨，环比下降68.00万吨 [2]. - 炼焦煤产量为4070.27万吨，环比增加144.11万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为72.87%，环比下降0.30% [2]. - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况为 - 63.00元/吨，环比下降11.00元；焦炭产量为4170.00万吨，环比下降67.60万吨 [2]. 3.5 National Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.13%，环比下降0.31%；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为89.87%，环比下降0.40% [2]. - 粗钢产量为8318.00万吨，环比下降336.50万吨 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 15, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin raised the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, to be implemented at 0:00 on July 17, 2025 [2]. - Trump said that an agreement was reached with Indonesia, where Indonesian goods exported to the US will pay a 19% tariff, while US exports are tariff - free [2]. - Sheng Laiyun, deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that relevant departments are formulating measures to strengthen the regulation of market order, which is conducive to improving market supply - demand relations and promoting a reasonable price rebound [2]. - From January to June, infrastructure investment increased by 4.6% year - on - year; manufacturing investment increased by 7.5% year - on - year; real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year [2]. - Sheng Laiyun said that domestic demand was the main driving force for China's economic growth in the first half of the year. Consumption policies will be further strengthened in the second half of the year. There is still great potential for fixed - asset investment, and prices will rise moderately at a low level [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views - On July 15, the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 911.5, down 0.38%. The Mongolian 5 raw coal was reported at 780 in the spot market. The China National Coal Transportation and Marketing Association emphasized scientific production rhythm, improved coal supply quality, strengthened industry self - discipline, and promoted market balance. The mine - end inventory generally decreased, market confidence improved, and the clean coal inventory continued to transfer from upstream mines and coal - washing plants to downstream coal - using enterprises. The cumulative import growth rate declined, and the total inventory was neutral. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated as oscillating with a bullish bias [2]. - On July 15, the J2509 contract of coke closed at 1514.0, down 0.85%. Some regions proposed a price increase in the spot market. The vice - president of the China Iron and Steel Association said that the domestic steel production has reached its peak, and the future domestic crude steel consumption is expected to remain at 8 - 9 billion tons. The industry shows an obvious trend of reducing production, but the industrial concentration is increasing. Fundamentally, the raw material supply is gradually improving, the hot metal output has slightly declined from the high level, most coal mines have no inventory pressure, and the coal mines have a strong willingness to support prices. In terms of profit, the average loss per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 63 yuan/ton this period. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages. It should be treated as oscillating with a bullish bias [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为911.50元/吨，环比下跌8.50元；J主力合约收盘价为1514.00元/吨，环比下跌11.00元 [2]。 - JM期货合约持仓量为814,923.00手，环比增加7,161.00手；J期货合约持仓量为54,685.00手，环比减少1,074.00手 [2]。 - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 60,314.00手，环比增加1,256.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为 - 3,642.00手，环比增加392.00手 [2]。 - JM1 - 9月合约价差为50.50元/吨，环比增加7.00元；J1 - 9月合约价差为46.50元/吨，环比增加2.50元 [2]。 - 焦煤仓单为1,600.00张，环比增加200.00张；焦炭仓单为90.00张，环比无变化 [2]。 3.2 Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为780.00元/吨，环比上涨23.00元；唐山准一级冶金焦价格为1,390.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]。 - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为118.00美元/湿吨，环比无变化；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1,220.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]。 - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1,330.00元/吨，环比无变化；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1,320.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]。 - 京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1,350.00元/吨，环比无变化；天津港准一级冶金焦价格为1,220.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]。 - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为930.00元/吨，环比无变化；内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为960.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]。 - JM主力合约基差为18.50元/吨，环比增加8.50元；J主力合约基差为 - 124.00元/吨，环比增加11.00元 [2]。 3.3 Upstream Situation - 110家洗煤厂原煤库存为300.77万吨，环比减少11.40万吨；精煤库存为197.07万吨，环比减少17.91万吨 [2]。 - 110家洗煤厂开工率为62.33%，环比增加2.61个百分点；原煤产量为42,107.00万吨，环比增加1,778.60万吨 [2]。 - 煤及褐煤进口量为3,303.70万吨，环比减少300.30万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为191.80万吨，环比增加3.80万吨 [2]。 - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为553.79万吨，环比增加29.08万吨；18个港口焦炭库存为255.68万吨，环比增加13.66万吨 [2]。 3.4 National Industry Situation - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为892.35万吨，环比增加44.17万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭库存为93.08万吨，环比减少9.02万吨 [2]。 - 247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为782.93万吨，环比减少6.67万吨；247家样本钢厂焦炭库存为637.80万吨，环比增加0.31万吨 [2]。 - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.48天，环比减少0.03天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.64天，环比增加0.12天 [2]。 - 炼焦煤进口量为738.69万吨，环比减少150.65万吨；焦炭及半焦炭出口量为0.00万吨，环比减少68.00万吨 [2]。 - 炼焦煤产量为4,070.27万吨，环比增加144.11万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为72.87%，环比减少0.30个百分点 [2]。 - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况为 - 63.00元/吨，环比减少11.00元；焦炭产量为4,170.00万吨，环比减少67.60万吨 [2]。 3.5 National Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.13%，环比减少0.31个百分点；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为89.87%，环比减少0.40个百分点 [2]。 - 粗钢产量为8,318.00万吨，环比减少336.50万吨 [2]。 3.6 Industry News - 特朗普称若俄罗斯50天内无法达成俄乌冲突协议将对俄征收100%二级关税，美国官员称还会对购买俄油国家实施二级制裁 [2]。 - 中国煤炭运销协会召开上半年煤炭经济运行分析座谈会，强调守牢安全稳定底线，科学把握生产节奏，提升煤炭供给质量，加强行业自律，整治内卷式竞争，促进煤炭市场供需平衡 [2]。 - 欧盟委员会委员表示若美欧贸易谈判失败，欧盟准备对价值约840亿美元的美国进口商品征收额外反制关税 [2]。 - 泰国财政部考虑对更多美国进口产品实行零关税 [2]。 - 美国商务部对无人机和多晶硅进口启动232调查 [2]。

中国神华的主营业务是煤炭、电力的生产和销售，铁路、港口和船舶运输，煤制烯烃等业务。公告显 示，预计公司2025年上半年实现归母净利润为236亿元至256亿元。与上年同期法定披露数据相比，减少 39亿元至59亿元，下降13.2%至20.0%。与经重述的上年同期数据相比，减少24亿元至44亿元，下降 8.6%至15.7%。 中国神华表示，2025年上半年，面对煤炭、电力市场量价双降的严峻形势，公司以高质量发展为导向， 全力以赴促销售、争发电、精管理、强创效，生产经营态势总体平稳。2025年上半年归母净利润同比下 降的主要原因是受煤炭销售量及平均销售价格下降影响，集团煤炭分部利润下降。 此外，2月11日，中国神华完成收购国家能源集团公司持有的杭锦能源100%股权。在今年5月的一场投 资者关系活动中，中国神华表示，国家能源集团和公司正在协商启动新一批的注资交易，继续推进煤炭 优质资产注入中国神华，支持中国神华长远发展。 每经记者｜王佳飞 每经编辑｜魏官红 7月13日，中国神华（SH601088，股价37.64元，市值7478.51亿元）发布了2025年上半年业绩预告。中 国神华预计今年上半年业绩同比有所下降，公司同时 ...

Trade and Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, China's goods trade import and export reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. Exports amounted to 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, declining by 2.7% [1] Coal Industry - The China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association recently held a meeting to analyze the economic operation of the coal industry in the first half of the year. The meeting emphasized the need to strengthen industry self-discipline, rectify excessive competition, and promote a balance between supply and demand in the coal market [3] Cryptocurrency Market - Bitcoin has surpassed the 120,000 yuan mark, setting a new historical high [4] Stock Market Performance - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.43%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.23%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.74%. The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.11%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.2% [5]