1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The current bond market does not have a basis for significant adjustment. If confidence in the bond market is limited, investors may wait for the yield to adjust further before entering the market with a configuration mindset. If still confident in the bond market, the current point after breaking below the annual line may have obvious short - term trading value [1][4][42] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2020 - 2022 Scenarios of 10 - year Treasury Futures Breaking Below the Annual Line - **Scenario 1: July 6, 2020 (Breaking Below the Annual Line and Continuing to Weaken)** - After the closing price of the 10 - year Treasury futures main contract broke below the annual line, it experienced short - term fluctuations and rebounds but then continued to decline. The macro - trading logic reversed. The macro - economy showed strong resilience, and the recession expectation significantly cooled. The monetary policy shifted from loose to tight, and the supply of Treasury bond issuance increased, leading to liquidity shock pressure. The 10 - year Treasury futures did not form effective support at the annual line [13] - **Scenario 2: June 27, 2022 (Breaking Below the Annual Line and Then Rebounding Quickly)** - After the closing price of the 10 - year Treasury futures main contract broke below the annual line, it quickly rebounded after a short - term adjustment. In the second quarter of 2022, steady - growth policies were intensively implemented, driving up the expectation of economic recovery. However, due to risk events such as real - estate unfinished building mortgage suspension and rural bank thunderstorms and weak economic data, the recovery expectation declined. Coupled with obvious improvement in liquidity, the 10 - year Treasury futures got strong support near the annual line [23] - **Scenario 3: November 14, 2022 (Breaking Below the Annual Line and Then Oscillating at a Low Level)** - After the closing price of the 10 - year Treasury futures main contract broke below the annual line, the short - term market was weak but did not deviate significantly from the annual line, showing a low - level oscillation state. Real - estate support policies and the shift of epidemic - prevention policies drove up the expectation of economic improvement. The game between strong expectation and weak reality reappeared. After March 2023, the weak reality problem was confirmed again, and the bond market started the next round of upward trend under the logic of abundant funds [28] Analysis of the Current Round of 10 - year Treasury Futures Breaking Below the Annual Line - **Fundamentals** - The macro - economy performed relatively well in the first half of the year, but the economic and financial data in July were relatively weak, indicating that economic stabilization still needs time. The Politburo meeting in July had a relatively cautious tone, and the priority of implementing existing policies was higher than increasing new policy intensity, which may dampen market optimism. The fundamental expectation or current situation does not support a significant upward movement of Treasury yields [3][34] - **Funding Situation** - Since mid - March, the funding rate has been continuously declining, and the difference between the funding rate and the policy rate has gradually converged. The possibility of the central bank tightening liquidity unexpectedly in the next stage is relatively low. An abundant liquidity environment may prevent Treasury yields from rising further [38] - **Stock - Bond Seesaw** - The stock - bond seesaw is the main reason for the recent bond - market adjustment, but the bond market has shown signs of desensitization to the equity market. The equity market's upward slope has increased recently, and potential adjustment risks need to be guarded against. If the equity - market trend corrects, it may drive the bond - market trend to further recover [3][39] Bond - Market Strategy Thinking - The appropriate bond - market strategy depends on two aspects: the bull - bear state of the bond market and the investment purpose (trading or configuration). If confidence in the bond market is limited, wait for the yield to adjust further and then enter the market with a configuration mindset. If still confident in the bond market, the current point after breaking below the annual line has obvious short - term trading value [4][42]