【短评-甲醇】 江苏太仓甲醇市场价2297元/吨，上升2元/ 吨；国内甲醇周产能利用率83.76%，上升1.36%，内蒙古新奥60 万吨/年甲醇装置预期本周检修结束；下游总产能利用率 72.81%，周上升1.04%；中国甲醇港口样本库存107.6万吨，周 上升5.42万吨；中国甲醇样本生产企业库存31.08万吨，周增加 1.52万吨。评：国内甲醇开工高位上升，下游需求较稳，甲醇 港口库存继续积累，9月预期进口量维持高位。内地甲醇市场部 分地区略偏强，企业竞拍成交顺畅，港口甲醇市场基差走弱， 商谈成交一般。预计甲醇01合约短期震荡运行，下方支撑2410 一线，建议观望或短线做多。 【短评-黄金】特朗普政府在周一发布的一份公告草案中概 述了对印度产品征收50%关税的计划，这是白宫计划推进提高关 税的最新信号。美国国土安全部发布的通知称，提高的关税将 针对"2025年8月27日美国东部夏令时间凌晨12:01或之后进入 消费市场或从仓库提取消费产品的"印度产品。评：关税扰动 依然存在。杰克逊霍尔年会，鲍威尔讲话之后，市场开始走降 息预期行情。隔夜美元指数打压，施压贵金属，黄金短期有反 弹需求，短期或震荡偏多，中期依然 ...

股债跷跷板依然主导，关注长端债券机会 摘 要： 据 21 世纪经济报道，规模高达 5000 亿元的新型政策性金融工 具将出，重点投向新兴产业、基础设施等领域，国家开发银行、中 国农业发展银行、中国进出口银行等政策性银行参与其中。央行新 增支农支小再贷款额度 1000 亿元，引导和鼓励金融机构加大对北 京、河北、吉林、山东、甘肃等受灾地区的经营主体特别是小微企 业、个体工商户，以及农业、养殖企业和农户的信贷支持力度。随 着 7 月官方制造业 PMI 为 49.3，环比下降 0.4 个百分点，制造业景 气水平有所回落，综合 PMI 产出指数为 50.2，下降 0.5 个百分点， 下半年在保证流动性宽松的总基调之下，关键的重大基础设施，重 大项目依然可期，逆周期调节视情况适时加码。 进入三季度，往往是债市发行的高峰期，和债市需求的较弱时 期，当然近些年，债市的发行有前置发行的特点，但是债市三季度 供需规律一定程度依然适用，叠加风险偏好不断修复，股债跷跷板 持续利空债市，长端债市供需矛盾或更加突出，利空因素更加明显。 7 月政治局会议召开，定调了下半年的政策基调，积极的财政政策 和适度宽松的货币政策，是下半年的主基调 ...

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 债市情绪年内第二次转负 ——债市情绪面周报（8 月第 3 周） 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 华安观点：债市调整空间有限，关注个券利差挖掘机会 近期债市在权益偏强的情况下有所承压，但我们认为中长期仍将回归基 本面定价，上周五杰克逊霍尔年会释放偏鸽信号，我们预计税期过后资金面不 存在大幅收紧的基础，供给方面央行进行宽货币配合，目前机构行为信号方向 依然给出做多，基金的赎回/卖债力度较为可控，大行持续买债提供短端确定 性，从近期借贷情况来看，我们在上周周报中提示 250210-250215 利差可能走 扩。 ⚫ 卖方观点：债市情绪年内第二次转负，偏空观点机构数量占比近三成 截至本周一，近 3 成固收卖方看空债市，一半持中性态度，情绪较上周下 行，7 家偏多、19 家中性、8 家偏空，债市情绪年内第二次转负，多数机构对 债市维持谨慎/震荡市判断，其中： ⚫ 买方观点：买方超八成看中性 报告日期： 2025-08-25 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：131275320 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月25日 超长债周报 股债跷跷板 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周债市继续大跌。上周税期资金面收紧，公布 8 月 MLF 超额续作 3000 亿，A 股放量大涨，上证指数创 10 年新高，股债跷跷板 效应明显，超长债继续暴跌。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度小幅下 降，交投相当活跃。利差方面，上周超长债期限利差走阔，品种利差走 阔。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 8 月 22 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 31BP，处于 历史偏低水平。从国内经济数据来看，7 月经济依然面临下行压力。我 们测算的 7 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.3%，较今年上半年的增速大幅下滑。 通胀方面，7 月 CPI 为 0.0%，PPI-3.6%，通缩风险依存。我们认为，短 期债市会不断面临预期和现实的博弈，10 年期国债在【1.65%，1.8%】 区间震荡。一方面，现实基本面依然偏弱，对债市形成支撑；另一方面， "反内卷"的确是当前政策的重要抓手，投资者通缩担忧有所消散，长 期宏观叙事出现变化，预期和情绪对债市产生压制。当前 30 年国债期 限利差依然偏低，期限利差保护度有限 ...

伴随市场回暖，基金中基金（FOF）业绩大"回血"，达到近五年最佳状态。 业内人士表示，未来3年股市或结构性走强，债市则处于超涨高位相对走弱，可择机加大权益资产配 置。 最牛涨超45% 择机加大权益资产配置 近期，"股债跷跷板"效应显著，刘迪认为，当前股债性价比处于中性区间，股票和债券的吸引力相对均 衡，尚未出现极端配置信号。具体方向上，优先关注估值处于历史低位或政策支持的科技成长领 域。"要根据自身风险偏好动态调整，避免激进切换，稳中求进更适配当前市场环境。" "国内宏观经济平稳运行，债券的边际上行空间有限；同时，权益市场回暖，风险偏好和微观流动性开 始好转，在原有赔率优势的基础上，胜率优势也逐渐上升。从股权风险溢价指标角度，目前权益市场仍 具有性价比。短期由于资金驱动带来'股债跷跷板'效应比较极致，需要注意可能的波动加大及回摆调 整。"平安基金基金经理王家萌谈道。 公募FOF五年来最佳表现 Wind数据显示，截至8月22日，515只公募FOF年内平均业绩达9.41%，仅一只产品收益为负；近40只 （只统计初始份额）公募FOF年内累计净值增长率超20%。其中，曾辉管理的国泰优选领航一年持有、 国泰行业轮动A以 ...

【导读】"股债跷跷板"效应凸显，短期或呈现震荡磨顶行情，中长期债券市场仍会回归基本面和资金面 定价 中国基金报记者 曹雯璟 张燕北 近期股市持续走高，债市却同步经历显著调整。对于本轮债市下跌，受访公募机构及业内人士分析认 为，背后是多重因素共同作用的结果：宏观经济预期变化、短期货币政策维持不降息基调、股市走强后 风险偏好提升、债市配置资金被分流等，其中市场情绪的催化是主导性因素。 展望后续债市走向，机构普遍认为，利率连续大幅上行的概率较低，短期内债市大概率呈现"磨顶"行 情，现阶段可配置中短端票息类资产。从中长期维度看，债券市场定价终将回归基本面与资金面逻辑。 本轮调整主要由情绪催化所致 债基赎回整体可控 自7月初以来，10年期国债到期收益率上行至1.78%，累计涨幅达8.2%；长债调整更为显著，30年期国 债到期收益率上行至2.08%，累计涨幅达11.46%。在业内看来，本轮债券市场调整的主要原因在于市场 情绪变化下资金出现分流。 长城基金固定收益研究部副总经理吴冰燕表示，近期"股债跷跷板"和风险偏好抬升。4月初中美关税冲 击以来，股票市场稳定修复，呈现"高收益，低波动"的反常表现，其风险收益比明显高于债券 ...

【导读】"股债跷跷板"效应凸显，短期或呈现震荡磨顶行情，中长期债券市场仍会回归基本 面和资金面定价 中国基金报记者 曹雯璟 张燕北 近期股市持续走高，债市却同步经历显著调整。对于本轮债市下跌，受访公募机构及业内人 士分析认为，背后是多重因素共同作用的结果：宏观经济预期变化、短期货币政策维持不降 息基调、股市走强后风险偏好提升、债市配置资金被分流等，其中市场情绪的催化是主导性 因素。 展望后续债市走向，机构普遍认为，利率连续大幅上行的概率较低，短期内债市大概率呈 现"磨顶"行情，现阶段可配置中短端票息类资产。从中长期维度看，债券市场定价终将回归 基本面与资金面逻辑。 本轮调整主要由情绪催化所致 债基赎回整体可控 自7月初以来，10年期国债到期收益率上行至1.78%，累计涨幅达8.2%；长债调整更为显 著，30年期国债到期收益率上行至2.08%，累计涨幅达11.46%。在业内看来，本轮债券市 场调整的主要原因在于市场情绪变化下资金出现分流。 长城基金固定收益研究部副总经理吴冰燕表示，近期"股债跷跷板"和风险偏好抬升。4月初中 美关税冲击以来，股票市场稳定修复，呈现"高收益，低波动"的反常表现，其风险收益比明 显高 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding report industry investment ratings in the given content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term evaluations and trading suggestions for various commodities, including gold, crude oil, iron ore, etc. It analyzes the impact of different factors such as trade agreements, production plans, and policy regulations on commodity prices and market trends [1][3][4]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Gold - The US - EU trade agreement is favorable to the US and negative for the euro, causing the US dollar index to rise. Gold has a short - term rebound demand and may fluctuate upward, but the dollar - gold seesaw effect should be monitored. The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting on Friday may increase precious metal volatility [1]. Crude Oil - Iraq plans to increase daily oil production to nearly 6 million barrels by 2028, and India will continue to buy Russian oil. There is a situation of weak expectations against the reality of non - accumulated inventory. It is advisable to wait and see at the current position [1]. Iron Ore - In August, the iron ore fundamentals have few contradictions. High iron - water production provides strong demand support. The ore price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a reference support level of 750 yuan/ton [3]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of coking coal mines has increased. The demand side has some support from high iron - water production, but attention should be paid to temporary production - restriction policies. The coking coal price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. Rebar - The fundamentals of steel are weak, but due to environmental protection policies and policy expectations, the probability of a sharp decline in rebar prices is low. Short - term long positions can be considered in the 3000 - 3100 area, and caution is needed when pre - laying long positions in the far - month contracts [4]. Live Pigs - The national average pig - grain ratio has fallen below 6:1, triggering a third - level warning. The state will conduct central frozen pork reserve purchases, which can boost the pig price in the short term. Short - term long positions can be tried, and farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [5]. Palm Oil - Indonesia's palm oil inventory is at a low level, and the consumption peak season is approaching. The palm oil price is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term [6]. Soybeans - The 2025/26 global soybean production forecast has been slightly increased. The domestic soybean market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the domestic soybean price is expected to remain weakly stable in the short term [8]. Silver - The US economic data shows resilience, and the US - EU agreement boosts risk appetite. The silver price is expected to fluctuate upward, and attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [8]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The upcoming large - scale policy - based financial instruments may increase stock market investment and have a negative impact on the bond market. The bond market is expected to show more volatility, and short positions can be considered for long - term bonds at key resistance levels [9]. Rubber - The supply of rubber is sufficient as the Southeast Asian production season approaches, and the demand is weak. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10]. PTA - Jiangsu's policy draft signals a solution to over - capacity. For PTA, the proportion of 1 million - ton/year devices is low, and the price is expected to rise slightly in the short term, but caution is needed at high levels [11].

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a historic market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion yuan, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly ten-year high, indicating the beginning of a "slow bull" market [1] - The divergence between the stock and bond markets reflects a textbook-like "risk preference" switch, with rising stock prices driven by optimistic expectations regarding policy benefits, market reforms, and economic stabilization [1][2] - The stock market's strong performance has led to a significant increase in investor risk appetite, resulting in a shift of funds from stable assets to high-risk, high-return equity assets, causing pressure on the bond market [1][2] Group 2 - The stock market's capital absorption effect has structurally impacted the bond market, as rising stock prices are often associated with economic recovery and potential inflation expectations, undermining the low-interest-rate foundation that supports bond prices [2] - The short-term adjustment in the bond market is not due to changes in credit risk but rather a reset of the market risk pricing model, indicating that the bond market's decline is a byproduct of the healthy rise in the stock market [2][3] - Despite short-term pressures, there is an optimistic outlook for the bond market, as the long-term logic supporting it remains unchanged, and the disturbances caused by the stock market are expected to be temporary [3] Group 3 - The peak of government bond net issuance for the year has passed, leading to a gradual reduction in supply pressure, which is favorable for the stabilization and recovery of the bond market [4] - Bonds, as "safe-haven assets," offer relatively stable returns and lower risk levels, making them attractive to large institutions such as banks and insurance companies that have a constant demand for stable income [4] - Individual investors are increasingly recognizing the importance of diversification in asset allocation, with the bond market providing a channel for funds seeking rebalancing [4]

今天股市有所降温，早盘，wind全A一度自2021年12月以来，首次突破6000点，但下午13点30之后，市场降温明显，大量高位股集体下挫，而小盘 股领跌所有指数。 不过，今晚，想着重先和大家聊聊债市——根据卖方统计， 上周单周，理财规模掉了1500亿左右 ，想必不管是理财经理，还是个人投资者们，都在 疑惑，债基也好、固收理财也罢，到底还能不能拿？ 先看今天的市场，债市今天整体下行，30年国债大幅下行超3bps，一方面，是因为股债跷跷板，跟随股市降温而下行；另一方面，是下午传出的小 作文，说，"XX有干预，对国债期货空头头寸有控制，XXXX.......XXXX，推高融资成本，削减了货币政策降成本的效力"。 从机构行为来看，小作文传出后，公募基金迅速墙头草回摆，转为了净买入。 昨天，我们提到，"年内继续不看空债券，认为上行有顶"，下图，也有小伙伴提出了不同意见，我觉得，大家意见不同，都很正常，今晚，我们不去分析 小作文，只是想和大家摆事实、讲道理，展开聊一下， 不看空债券的底层逻辑。 这就是典型的二元对立，认为非此即彼，你死我活。 但咱们一直说的是， 低利率，是这轮股市行情，最根本的主线，没有之一 ，所以，低 ...