1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2026, the bond market showed an oscillating trend driven by multiple factors such as the stock - bond seesaw, central bank operations, and geopolitics. The long - and short - end yields were significantly differentiated, with the yield curve becoming steeper. The credit bond yields fluctuated in the same direction as the treasury bond yields, and the yields of low - grade and medium - term credit bonds declined more significantly. The credit spreads of all grades generally narrowed, and the default risk decreased compared to previous years [8][36]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation Curve: Yields First Declined and Then Rose - Most treasury bond yields of various tenors generally declined, while the yields of ultra - long - term treasury bonds increased. The yield curve showed a steepening feature. The credit bond yields also declined, with the yields of low - grade and medium - term credit bonds declining more significantly. The credit spreads of credit bonds of all tenors and ratings narrowed, and the narrowing amplitude of medium - and low - grade credit bonds was generally higher than that of high - grade ones [9]. - Specifically, as of March 27, 2026, the 1 - year treasury bond, 10 - year treasury bond, 10 - year policy - bank bond, and 30 - year treasury bond yields changed by -9BP, -3BP, -4BP, and 8BP respectively. The yields of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA+, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - changed by -12BP, -16BP, -21BP, and -19BP respectively. The credit spreads of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA+, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - narrowed by 6BP, 10BP, 15BP, and 13BP respectively [9]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Yields Oscillated and the Curve Became Steeper - The bond market in Q1 2026 presented an "oscillating and multi - factor intertwined" trend. The short - end yields were mainly affected by the loose capital market and oscillated downward, while the long - end yields were affected by equity fluctuations, risk - aversion sentiment, and inflation expectations and showed range - bound oscillations. The 1 - year and 10 - year treasury bond yields can be divided into five stages [10]. - Early January: After the New Year's Day holiday, the equity market soared, and bond market sentiment was under pressure. The 10 - year treasury bond yield rose above 1.90%, while the 1 - year treasury bond yield only rose slightly by about 2BP [11]. - From early January to before the Spring Festival: The regulatory authorities introduced equity "cooling" measures, and the central bank implemented a structural interest - rate cut. The bond market recovered, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield declined. The 1 - year treasury bond yield dropped below 1.25% under the expectation of loose liquidity [11]. - After the Spring Festival: The capital interest rate increased marginally, and the A - share market strengthened. The 10 - year treasury bond yield rose back above 1.80%, and the 1 - year treasury bond yield returned above 1.32% [11]. - From late February to early March: The military strike between Israel, the US, and Iran triggered risk - aversion sentiment, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield dropped below 1.78% [11]. - From early March to the end of March: The intensifying conflict between the US and Iran pushed up oil prices, and the long - end treasury bonds weakened under the expectation of imported inflation. The 10 - year treasury bond yield rose back to around 1.82%. The loose capital market drove the short - end yields to oscillate downward, and the yield curve became steeper [12]. 3.3 Credit Spreads: Credit Spreads of All Grades Generally Narrowed - In early January, affected by the soaring equity market and the pressure on bond market sentiment, the yields of credit bonds and treasury bonds rose simultaneously, but the increase in treasury bond yields was more obvious, leading to a rapid compression of credit spreads [15]. - From early January to the end of February, with the implementation of equity cooling measures and the central bank's structural interest - rate cut, the bond market recovered, and the decline in credit bond yields was greater than that of treasury bonds. The credit spreads of all grades narrowed slightly. At the end of February, affected by the increase in capital interest rates and the strengthening of the equity market, the spreads rebounded briefly [15]. - After early March, the intensifying US - Iran conflict pushed up oil prices and inflation expectations. The long - end treasury bond yields rose, the short - term bonds strengthened, and the yields of 3 - year - old credit bonds also declined. The credit spreads of 3 - year - old bonds of all grades fluctuated and narrowed with the market rhythm [15]. - Overall, in Q1 2026, the credit spreads of all grades generally showed a narrowing trend, with a brief rebound and then continued to narrow. The narrowing amplitude of short - end credit spreads was less than that of long - end spreads, and the narrowing amplitude of high - grade credit spreads was less than that of low - grade spreads [16]. 3.4 Risk of Implicit Rating Downgrade in the ChinaBond Market Increased - In Q1 2026, the amount of credit bonds with implicit rating downgrades in the ChinaBond market was 194 billion yuan, a significant increase compared with the same period last year. The total amount of credit bonds with implicit rating upgrades was 23.1 billion yuan, significantly lower than the same period last year [19]. - Among the above - mentioned upgraded and downgraded samples, the proportion of urban investment bonds in Q1 2026 was 29.3% and 0.5% respectively. Compared with the same period last year, the proportion of upgraded urban investment bonds increased, and the proportion of downgraded urban investment bonds decreased [19]. 3.5 Default: Default Risk Decreased and the Default Rate of Real - Estate Bonds Declined - In Q1 2026, there were no new first - time default issuers. According to the broad default standard, the default amount was 1.1 billion yuan, and the default rate was 0.002%. The annualized default rate decreased significantly compared with previous years [24]. - Structurally, the defaulting entities in Q1 2026 were still concentrated in real - estate bonds, and the defaulting real - estate enterprises were public enterprises. The default rate of real - estate bonds in Q1 was 0.1%, and the default scale and annualized default rate of real - estate bonds decreased significantly both quarter - on - quarter and year - on - year. The default rate of private enterprises in Q1 was 0%, and the annualized default rate continued to decline quarter - on - quarter [29]. 3.6 Recovery Rate Remained Low - In Q1 2026, the defaulted bonds recovered a principal of 1.07 billion yuan. The corresponding issuers included Sunac Real Estate, Greenland Holdings, and Country Garden, which self - compensated part of the interest or principal [32]. - From 2014 to the present, the defaulted bonds have paid a total principal of 144.7 billion yuan, and the payment rate of overdue principal is 13.7% [32]. 3.7 Summary - In Q1 2026, the bond market yields showed an oscillating trend of first declining and then rising, with significant differentiation between the long - and short - ends. The credit bond yields fluctuated in the same direction as the treasury bond yields, and the yields of low - grade and medium - and long - term credit bonds declined more significantly. The credit spreads of all grades generally narrowed, and the narrowing amplitude of medium - and low - grade credit spreads was higher than that of high - grade spreads, and the short - end narrowing amplitude was less than the long - end [36]. - The default risk further decreased compared with previous years, with no new first - time default issuers. The defaulting entities were still concentrated in real - estate bonds, and the default scale and annualized default rate of real - estate bonds decreased significantly both quarter - on - quarter and year - on - year. The amount of implicit rating downgrades in the ChinaBond market increased significantly year - on - year, and the amount of upgrades was significantly lower than the same period last year. The proportion of urban investment bonds in the upgraded samples increased, and the proportion in the downgraded samples decreased [37]. - In Q1 2026, the defaulted bonds recovered a principal of 1.07 billion yuan, and some issuers self - compensated part of the interest or principal. From 2014 to the present, the payment rate of overdue principal of defaulted bonds is 13.7% [37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The economy's fundamental recovery might be accelerating as the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size from January to February increased by 15.2% year - on - year, with the growth rate 14.6 percentage points faster than the previous year. Economic data shows increased economic vitality, which is bearish for the bond market. - After the Two Sessions, the policy has shifted to prioritize stability. Considering the impact of the Middle East on inflation, Fed's monetary policy, and international capital flows, and with the continuous appreciation of the RMB exchange rate, the central government's monetary and fiscal policies are more cautious. - The bond market maintains a top - level oscillatory pattern. Without incremental policies, stock market fluctuations are an important reference for bond market fluctuations. In the short term, the bond market will mainly be in an oscillatory pattern, awaiting further guidance from the economic fundamentals and policies. The Politburo meeting in April is an important observation point. [2] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - On March 27, the National Bureau of Statistics released the profit data of industrial enterprises above a designated size from January to February. The profits of these enterprises increased by 15.2% year - on - year, and the growth rate was 14.6 percentage points faster than the previous year. - The People's Bank of China emphasized actively and steadily resolving financial risks in key areas at an enlarged meeting, aiming to maintain a dynamic balance among economic growth, economic structure adjustment, and financial risk prevention at the macro - level. - After the Two Sessions, the policy shifted to stability. The situation in the Middle East affects inflation, Fed's monetary policy, and international capital flows. With the continuous appreciation of the RMB, the central government's policies are more cautious. - Economic data indicates increased economic vitality, which is bearish for the bond market. The bond market maintains an oscillatory pattern at the top, and without incremental policies, stock market fluctuations are an important factor for bond market fluctuations. In the short term, the bond market remains oscillatory, waiting for economic fundamentals and policy guidance, with the April Politburo meeting being an important observation point. [2] 3.2 Factors to Watch - The stock - bond seesaw, economic data, and the Middle East geopolitical war are the factors to watch. [3] 3.3 Other Sections (Data Visualization) - The report presents multiple charts, including those related to long - term and short - term treasury bond futures prices, trading volumes, and open interest; various macro - economic indicators such as official PMI, GDP, industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, social consumer goods retail, inflation, and import - export data; policy - related data like general public budget, M2, new RMB loans, central bank open - market operations, and M2 - social financing gap; and capital - related data such as inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rates, interest rate swaps, and capital costs. [4][8][15]

Key Points - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth of bank wealth management products, which reached a balance of 33.3 trillion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.2% despite performance pressures [2][5][9] - The increase in wealth management products is attributed to the "deposit migration" phenomenon, where high-interest deposits are shifting towards wealth management due to declining deposit rates and the recovery of equity markets [6][11] Group 1: Fund Flow - In 2025, the wealth management fund allocation shifted towards deposits and public funds, while reducing exposure to bond assets, with bond assets accounting for 51.9% of the total, down 5.9 percentage points from the previous year [14][17] - The number of wealth management investors reached 143 million by the end of 2025, with a significant contribution from individual investors, who increased by 17.69 million, a year-on-year growth of 14.3% [11][14] Group 2: Product Supply Changes - The supply of fixed-income products expanded, with a total of 32.3 trillion yuan in fixed-income products by the end of 2025, an increase of 3.2 trillion yuan from the previous year, while cash management products decreased by 0.26 trillion yuan [20][22] - The proportion of products with a minimum holding period increased, while daily open products saw a reduction in their share [22] - Short-term and medium-to-long-term products saw an increase in their proportions, with products under one month and those with a duration of 1-3 years rising by 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively [24] Group 3: Investment Returns - The average yield of wealth management products fell to 1.98% in 2025, a decrease of 0.67% from the previous year, despite an increase in the total revenue generated by these products [28][30] - The risk-return profile of wealth management products showed a clear stratification, with low-risk products (R1) declining from around 1.9% to 1.4%, while higher-risk products (R3-R5) exhibited an upward trend [30][32] - "Fixed income plus" products did not outperform pure fixed income, with a yield gap of about 20 basis points remaining by the end of the year, despite a strong stock market performance [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The "Government Work Report" sets this year's main economic growth target at 4.5%-5%, with an effort to achieve better results in practice, a target urban survey unemployment rate of around 5.5%, over 12 million new urban jobs, and a target consumer price inflation of around 2%. Global investors are closely watching the Middle East situation. The suspension of oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz has intensified oil price fluctuations, leading to various uncontrollable factors in commodity price fluctuations this year and triggering inflation expectations. However, as domestic inflation is currently at a low level, imported inflation is unlikely to trigger expectations of monetary policy adjustment. During the Two Sessions, there were few policy increments, so the bond and stock markets are likely to fluctuate. The triangular consolidation pattern of the bond market remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in April to see if it can provide directional guidance and an opportunity for the bond market to break out of the consolidation [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress opened in Beijing on March 5, and Premier Li Qiang delivered the "Government Work Report". Global investors are concerned about the Middle East situation, especially the oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz. The suspension of oil transportation there has affected oil prices and commodity markets. There were few policy increments during the Two Sessions, and the bond and stock markets are likely to fluctuate. The bond market's triangular consolidation pattern remains, and the April Politburo meeting may provide direction [2] 3.2 Factors to Watch - Factors to watch include the stock-bond seesaw, capital market disturbances, and economic data [3] 3.3 Market Data - The report presents various data charts including long - and ultra - long - term treasury bond futures prices, short - and medium - term treasury bond futures prices, trading volumes and open interests of short - and medium - term and long - and ultra - long - term treasury bond futures, official PMI, GDP and industrial added value, fixed asset investment, total retail sales of consumer goods, general public budget, M2 and new RMB loans, inflation data, import and export data, central bank open market operations, M2 and social financing gap, interbank certificate of deposit issuance rates, interest rate swaps and capital expectations, benchmark interest rates, and capital costs, with data sources from Flush and Ningzheng Futures [4][5][9][15]

Group 1 - The bond market in March is influenced by four key factors: the performance of economic growth post-Spring Festival, the fiscal deficit rate and government bond supply arrangements discussed during the Two Sessions, the possibility of interest rate cuts by the central bank around March, and the impact of equity and bond market dynamics [4][34][35] - The 10-year government bond yield has dropped below 1.8%, leading to a cautious market sentiment characterized by profit-taking and fear of high prices, resulting in a shift in bond market trends post-Spring Festival [4][36] - The basic economic indicators post-Spring Festival show structural highlights, with no significant recovery but also no further deterioration, which may impose certain constraints on the bond market [4][38] Group 2 - The fiscal stimulus is expected to be a significant support for economic growth in the first half of the year, with the issuance of ordinary government bonds likely to continue at a pace similar to last year, and the issuance of special bonds in January-February exceeding the same period last year [4][39][40] - The bond market is facing increasing headwinds, with expectations of a weak and volatile pattern due to the ample liquidity and the likelihood of accelerated government bond issuance in March, which may exacerbate supply-demand imbalances [4][35][36] - The report suggests focusing on structural opportunities in yield spreads and credit spreads, with moderate leverage on mid-term varieties and perpetual bonds [4][36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market is oscillating between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. The stock market's performance, the unchanged LPR, the continued expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the increased trade uncertainty due to the Iran conflict have added uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Index**: China's CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and year - on - year, while PPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month and decreased by 1.4% year - on - year [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale reached 449.11 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 6.99 trillion yuan or 1.58%. M2 year - on - year growth was 9.00%, up 0.50% or 5.88% month - on - month. The manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, down 0.30% or 0.61% month - on - month [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 98.80, down 0.26 or 0.26% day - on - day. The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 6.8930, down 0.029 or 0.42% day - on - day. SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.41, with no change in value and a decrease of 0.21% day - on - day. DR007 was 1.42, with no change in value and an increase of 0.13% day - on - day. R007 was 1.56, down 0.12 or 6.95% day - on - day. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.51, down 0.02 or 1.47% day - on - day. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with no change in value and a decrease of 1.47% day - on - day [11]. 3.2 Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Price and Fluctuation**: On March 5, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.50 yuan, 106.12 yuan, 108.55 yuan, and 112.77 yuan respectively, with fluctuations of - 0.02%, - 0.03%, - 0.03%, and - 0.05% respectively [3]. - **Net Basis Spread**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.011 yuan, 0.041 yuan, - 0.004 yuan, and 0.182 yuan respectively [3]. 3.3 Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - **Monetary Policy**: The Politburo meeting on December 8 signaled a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to continue such policies in 2026, with the potential for further reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. On January 19, 2026, a basket of interest rates such as re - loans and rediscounts was lowered by 0.25 percentage points [1]. - **Inflation**: In January, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year [1]. - **Fiscal Situation**: In 2025, fiscal revenue and expenditure did not meet expectations. Revenue was dragged down by weak tax revenue and a high non - tax base, with the annual general public budget revenue decreasing by 1.7% year - on - year. Expenditure was front - loaded, with the year - end intensity weakening and the annual completion rate being low. In 2026, fiscal policy is expected to remain proactive, with increased spending and a continued front - loaded rhythm [2]. - **Financial Data**: In January, new social financing reached 7.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 166.2 billion yuan year - on - year. Government bond net financing rebounded, indicating front - loaded fiscal efforts. M1 year - on - year growth rebounded to 4.9%, M2 growth rebounded to 9%, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed to 4.1%. The growth rate of RMB loans fell to 6%, while the deposit growth rate rebounded to 10.1%, with an expanding gap between deposit and loan growth rates, indicating relatively abundant funds in the banking system but stable credit demand and some idle funds [2]. - **Central Bank Operations**: On March 5, 2026, the central bank conducted 23 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Money Market Interest Rates**: The main term repurchase rates 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.267%, 1.412%, 1.461%, and 1.547% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. 3.4 Spread Overview The report provides various spread data, including the inter - period spread trends of treasury bond futures, and the spread relationships between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads, such as (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [34][36][38]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents data on the implied interest rate and maturity yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, as well as the IRR of the TS main contract and the relationship with the funding rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TS main contract [43][45]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures It includes data on the implied interest rate and maturity yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the relationship with the funding rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TF main contract [47][54]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report shows data on the implied yield and maturity yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the relationship with the funding rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the T main contract [55][57]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures It provides data on the implied yield and maturity yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the relationship with the funding rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TL main contract [60][63]. 3.9 Strategies - **Single - Side Strategy**: With the decline of repurchase rates, treasury bond futures prices are oscillating [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis spread [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. Influenced by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, the LPR remained unchanged, and there were uncertainties in foreign capital inflows due to the Fed's rate - cut expectations and global geopolitical uncertainties. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's monthly CPI had a 0.20% increase both month - on - month and year - on - year, while the monthly PPI rose 0.40% month - on - month and decreased 1.40% year - on - year [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 449.11 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 6.99 trillion yuan (+1.58%); M2 year - on - year growth was 9.00%, up 0.50% (+5.88%); the manufacturing PMI was 49.00%, down 0.30% (-0.61%) [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US Dollar Index was 98.80, down 0.26 (-0.26%); the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.8934, down 0.032 (-0.47%); SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.42, down 0.03 (-2.28%); DR007 was 1.42, down 0.03 (-2.25%); R007 was 1.56, down 0.12 (-6.95%); the 3 - month interbank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.53, down 0.01 (-0.49%); the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09 [11]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market The report presents multiple charts including the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each treasury bond futures variety, the trend of the settled funds of each treasury bond futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury bond futures variety, the net position ratio (top 20) of each treasury bond futures variety, and the long - short position ratio (top 20) of each treasury bond futures variety [13][14][16]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity The report shows charts such as the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, the issuance situation of treasury bonds, the Shibor interest rate trend, the yield - to - maturity trend of interbank certificates of deposit (AAA), the trading statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance situation of local government bonds [26][27][24]. IV. Spread Overview The report includes charts on the inter - delivery spread trend of each treasury bond futures variety and the term spread of cash bonds and cross - product spreads of futures [33][35][37]. V. Two - year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents charts on the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [45][47]. VI. Five - year Treasury Bond Futures The report shows charts on the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [49][56]. VII. Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures The report includes charts on the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [57]. VIII. Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures The report presents charts on the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond yield - to - maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [62][66]. 4. Strategies - **Single - side Strategy**: As the repurchase rate declines, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Group 1 - The overall yield of credit bonds has decreased, following the trend of interest rate bonds, with credit spreads generally narrowing due to strong performance in the first quarter as institutions seek to allocate to coupon assets [4] - Insurance institutions have continued to play a leading role in credit bond allocation, maintaining net purchases across various maturities [4] - Funds have significantly increased net purchases of bonds with maturities of 5 years or less, particularly focusing on high liquidity bonds with maturities of 3 years or less, with notable net buying in the 0-1 year category in February [4] Group 2 - Historical patterns indicate that the bond market typically performs well in the 30 trading days following the Two Sessions, with a success rate of 83.3% after T+10 [5] - Key factors to monitor in March 2026 include changes in liquidity, potential pressure from the end of the month on credit bonds, and the impact of local government bond supply on the market [5] - The large scale of open-ended amortized cost bond funds in March 2026, totaling 132.128 billion, is expected to provide strong incremental capital for the credit bond market [5] Group 3 - In March, the volatility risk of credit bonds may increase, suggesting caution for weaker liquidity and highly elastic valuation products [6] - Short-term credit bonds are recommended for their relative liquidity and defensive attributes, while a credit downshift strategy may be employed to enhance yields due to limited coupon digging space [7] - For long-duration credit bonds, despite existing coupon value, it is advised to maintain moderate positions and consider timely reductions or structural optimizations due to market uncertainties in March [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market fluctuates between stable growth and easing expectations, affected by the Iran geopolitical conflict, the Politburo meeting's signal of loose monetary policy, unchanged LPR, continued expectations of Fed rate cuts, and increased uncertainty in global trade, which adds uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [2][4]. - The repurchase rate has declined, and treasury bond futures prices are oscillating. Attention should be paid to the decline of the 2606 basis. In the medium - term, there is adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's monthly CPI has a month - on - month and year - on - year increase of 0.20%, while the monthly PPI has a month - on - month increase of 0.40% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.40% [10]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale is 449.11 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 6.99 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 1.58%. M2 year - on - year is 9.00%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 5.88%. The manufacturing PMI is 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% and a decline rate of 1.60% [11]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 99.06, with a month - on - month increase of 0.51 and a growth rate of 0.52%. The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.9164, with a month - on - month increase of 0.026 and a growth rate of 0.38%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.45, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 1.23%. DR007 is 1.45, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.85%. R007 is 1.56, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 and a decline rate of 6.95%. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.54, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 and a decline rate of 0.96%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.96% [12]. II. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change situation of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation fund trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the position ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures, the net position ratio of the top 20 of each variety of treasury bond futures, and the long - short position ratio of the top 20 of each variety of treasury bond futures [14][15][18]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, the issuance situation of treasury bonds, the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance situation of local bonds [25][26][24]. IV. Spread Overview No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the inter - period spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, and the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 3*T - TL, 2*TS - 3*TF + T) [37][32][34]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [41][43]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [45][52]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [53][56]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific text - based summary content provided, but there are figures including the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [59][60].

Group 1 - The overall credit bond market showed a strong rebound in February 2026, with credit spreads generally narrowing due to a favorable liquidity environment and institutional demand for coupon assets [1][10][9] - Insurance institutions continued to play a leading role in credit bond allocation, maintaining net purchases across various maturities, particularly focusing on short-term bonds [17][1] - Funds significantly increased their net purchases of bonds with maturities below 5 years, especially in the 0-1 year category, while showing caution towards longer-term bonds [17][1] Group 2 - The outlook for the bond market in March 2026 suggests a cautious approach towards credit bonds due to potential volatility, with a recommendation to focus on short-term bonds for defensive positioning [2][1] - The opening of amortized cost bond funds in March is expected to bring substantial demand for credit bonds, particularly in the 5-year and below category, which may lead to further compression of spreads [2][1] - The issuance of local government bonds in March is anticipated to remain high, potentially exerting pressure on liquidity and affecting credit bond performance [4][1] Group 3 - The credit bond market experienced a significant decline in issuance in February 2026, with a total of 620.27 billion yuan issued, a decrease of 47.76% month-on-month [25][1] - The total outstanding credit bond balance reached 31.89 trillion yuan by the end of February 2026, indicating a substantial market size [25][1] - The local government bond issuance in February was 278.75 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 37.03% month-on-month, with net financing of 34.69 billion yuan [26][1]