Workflow
钴行业供需平衡
icon
Search documents
钴观点交流20250812
2025-08-12 15:05
Summary of Cobalt Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cobalt industry is significantly impacted by the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) export ban, which affects China's cobalt intermediate imports, as 98%-99% of China's primary cobalt is sourced from DRC [2][4][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Cobalt Price Fluctuations**: The first export ban led to a doubling of cobalt intermediate prices, while the second ban saw a smaller increase of approximately 8.5%, indicating market expectations and inventory levels' influence [2][6]. - **Electrolytic Cobalt Profitability**: Electrolytic cobalt transitioned from positive to negative profitability due to high inventory levels and overcapacity, leading to forced destocking [2][8][11]. - **Sulfuric Cobalt Market**: Sulfuric cobalt briefly achieved profitability in March 2025 but fell back into losses due to supply and demand pressures, including weak demand from ternary battery precursors [9][12]. - **Chloride Cobalt and Ternary Oxide**: These products maintained relatively stable profits due to a make-to-order production model, benefiting from consumer subsidies, although profits are expected to decline due to raw material shortages [10][12]. - **Future Trends**: The cobalt industry is expected to face shortages by the end of August 2025, with prices projected to rise slowly until November [4][32]. Additional Important Insights - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: The cobalt supply chain is shifting towards resource acquisition capabilities and order binding, with a focus on reducing production costs due to profit compression across production stages [4][18]. - **Global Supply Balance**: The global cobalt supply may face an oversupply situation, but DRC's export restrictions create regional supply-demand imbalances [17][20]. - **Inventory Levels**: Current inventory levels vary significantly across different market participants, with electrolytic cobalt social inventory estimated to be around 8 months [15][14]. - **Impact of Price Increases**: Price increases in cobalt significantly affect demand for downstream products, particularly when prices reach around $26-$27 per pound, leading to reduced purchasing from manufacturers [25][32]. - **Future of Cobalt Recycling**: Domestic cobalt recycling is currently limited, contributing about 1,000 tons per month, with potential increases expected as raw material costs rise [24][29]. Conclusion The cobalt industry is navigating a complex landscape shaped by export bans, fluctuating prices, and shifting supply dynamics. The anticipated shortages and price increases in the coming months highlight the need for strategic adjustments within the industry to adapt to these changes.