会议主办： 鑫椤资讯 | 9月1日 | 9月30日 | 照价 | 产品 | 最低价 | 最高价 | 最高价 | 月度均价 | 月度均价涨跌 单位 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 12. 4 | 三元材料5系(动力型) | 万元/吨 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 12.5 | 11. 70 | 1 0. 04 | 三元材料5系(单晶型) | 12. 85 | 10.04 | 12.7 | 13. 4 | 万元/吨 | 13.3 | 12.9 | | | | 三元材料5系(数码型) | 力元/吨 | 11.4 % | 11.9 | 11 6 | 12. 1 | 11.50 | + 0. 04 | 11.2 | 三元材料5系(镍55型) | 10.8 / | 10. 85 | +0.04 | 万元/吨 | 11.4 | 33 | | | | 三元材料6系(单品62型) | 12.3 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. has experienced significant stock price fluctuations due to a recent supply agreement with LG Energy Solution, amidst rising cobalt prices driven by policy changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo [1][2][3] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Reaction - Huayou Cobalt's stock price has increased by 36.33% from September 19 to October 9, with a notable six consecutive days of gains [2] - The company confirmed that its daily operations are normal and there are no significant changes in internal or external business conditions [2] - No undisclosed major information affecting the stock price has been identified by the company [2] Group 2: Supply Agreements and Strategic Partnerships - Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary, Huayou New Energy Technology, signed a supply agreement with LGES to provide approximately 76,000 tons of ternary precursor products from 2026 to 2030 [1][3] - Additionally, another subsidiary, Chengdu Bamo Technology, has a basic procurement contract with LGES for 88,000 tons of ternary cathode materials over the same period [3] - This partnership is expected to enhance Huayou Cobalt's market share in lithium battery materials and strengthen its competitive position in the supply chain [3][4] Group 3: Cobalt Market Dynamics - The recent policy shift in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which accounts for about 70% of global cobalt production, has led to a significant increase in cobalt prices, with electrolytic cobalt reaching 343,000 CNY/ton, a 29% increase since September [1][5] - The new export quota system is expected to limit cobalt supply, with projections indicating a decline in global effective cobalt supply from 282,000 tons in 2025 to 185,000 tons [5][6] - Demand for cobalt is anticipated to remain strong, particularly driven by the growth in China's electric vehicle sales, which increased by 36.7% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025 [6][7]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views - In Q3, the nickel and stainless - steel market was mainly oscillating strongly, with increased costs in each industrial chain link and firm bottom support. In Q4, the Indonesian nickel - ore policy is the biggest variable, and the new energy sector may continue to be strong. The cobalt price is expected to rise, supporting the MHP cobalt coefficient [1]. - For stainless steel in Q4, attention should be paid to the demand recovery trend. The continuous strength of ferronickel supports the bottom space, but the upward drive is insufficient. The end of Q4 usually sees a small uptick in demand. There is also a mild Fed rate - cut expectation [2]. - The expected core fluctuation range of Shanghai nickel in Q4 is [118,000 - 126,000] yuan/ton, with strong support at 115,000 yuan/ton. The core fluctuation range of stainless steel is [12,500 - 13,200] yuan/ton [2]. Group 3: Q3 Market Review - In Q3, the nickel and stainless - steel market was mainly driven by multiple news stimuli. After the market reaction, the prices mostly returned to the oscillation range. High inventory and low demand constrained the upward movement, while the cost and production - cut expectations limited the downward space [6][7]. - From the beginning of Q3 to mid - July, the market was driven by macro and policy emotions. In August, sudden news from Indonesian parks and rumors about mine rights/quotas pushed the prices up briefly. In September, news stimuli and Fed rate - cut expectations affected the market, and the funds mainly took profit and reduced positions [6][7]. Group 4: Industrial Chain Performance Nickel Ore - In Q3, the nickel - ore market was relatively firm. In Indonesia, the mining pressure remained due to environmental reviews, and the supply was tight. In the Philippines, the production and shipment were at seasonal highs in Q3 but are expected to decline seasonally in Q4 [19]. - Policy disturbances in Indonesia may be the mainstream factor in Q4. New quota approvals are approaching, but supply release may be limited. The domestic trade ore price premium remains strong [19][20]. Ferronickel - In Q3, the ferronickel market gradually strengthened, with the price rising from 900 yuan/nickel point to 955 yuan/nickel point. The main reason was the increased acceptance of high - price ferronickel by stainless - steel mills [22]. - In Q4, the ferronickel market may be in a high - level oscillation, with limited upward drive. The supply may be affected by quota release and the rainy season, and the demand depends on the continuation of stainless - steel demand [22][24]. Nickel Sulfate and Intermediates - In Q3, the nickel - sulfate and intermediate market was mainly in a tight - balance state. The demand from downstream battery enterprises and the rising cobalt price supported the price [29]. - In Q4, the demand for nickel sulfate may continue due to the restocking needs of electric - vehicle and battery manufacturers. The price is expected to remain strong, and the new energy sector may support the nickel price [29]. Stainless Steel - In Q3, the stainless - steel market showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the price mainly in the range of [12,500 - 13,100] yuan/ton. The market was affected by macro and news stimuli, but the demand and inventory contradictions were not resolved [36]. - In Q4, the stainless - steel price depends on demand recovery, supply - side optimization, and policy implementation. The price is expected to be in the range of [12,500 - 13,200] yuan/ton, with fluctuations depending on production cuts and demand fulfillment [37][38]. Group 5: Q4 Balance Deduction - The profit game between upstream and downstream in the industrial chain is intense. The supply is relatively abundant, and the main variable lies in new - energy demand. The demand shows differentiation, with limited marginal increase in stainless steel and expected marginal increase in the new - energy sector [48]. - The supply - demand balance depends on the performance of stainless steel in October and the further development of the new - energy sector. The demand in October is optimistic, and the year - end demand depends on new - energy demand growth [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report Core View - On September 26, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range. With both supply and demand strong, upstream inventory pressure is not significant, the expectation of supply contraction in lithium mines is weakening, downstream inventories have reached their peaks, and the peak demand may be approaching. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will oscillate at a low level. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [1] Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - On September 26, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - two, consecutive - three, and consecutive - one contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 72,680 yuan/ton, 72,820 yuan/ton, 72,820 yuan/ton, and 72,880 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a downward trend compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active contract was 481,020 hands (+138,301), and the open interest was 248,460 hands (-12,501) [1] Spot Market - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,400 yuan/ton, with a basis of 720 yuan/ton, rising from a discount. The prices of some lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene concentrate increased, while the prices of mica remained stable [1] Supply and Demand - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased. Demand side: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased; in September, the production schedules of lithium cobaltate and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries was basically flat last week. Terminal demand: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down; 3C shipments were average; in September, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased [1] Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 40,329 tons (+20), and social inventory decreased. Inventories of smelters and other sectors decreased, while downstream inventory tightened [1] Company News - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. announced that its 40,000 - ton/year basic lithium salt integration project has entered the commissioning stage and produced qualified battery - grade lithium carbonate products. Anson Resources signed a battery - grade lithium carbonate purchase agreement with LG Energy Solution, and its stock price rose nearly 25%. Longpan Times, a joint - venture company of CATL and Longpan Technology, stopped production on September 25 due to the suspension of raw material supply from CATL's Yichun mine [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has lifted its cobalt export ban and shifted to a quota system, allowing for significant exports in the coming years, which is expected to impact the global cobalt supply chain and market dynamics [1][5]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Impact - The DRC will allow over 18,000 tons of cobalt exports in 2023, with annual quotas of 96,600 tons for 2026 and 2027, distributed based on companies' historical export volumes [1]. - Following the announcement, cobalt-related stocks in China's A-share market saw significant increases, indicating a positive market reaction [1]. - The shift from a complete export ban to a quota system suggests a more refined approach to managing cobalt resources in the DRC [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The cobalt market is currently facing a raw material shortage, with high concentration in spot inventories, leading to price increases primarily driven by traders and companies holding physical stocks [2]. - The battery sector, which consumes over 70% of cobalt, is experiencing pressure due to inventory levels, causing battery manufacturers to reduce procurement from upstream suppliers [2]. - The DRC's export policy change is expected to lead to a supply shortage in the global cobalt market from 2025 to 2027, with projected shortfalls of 122,000 tons, 88,000 tons, and 97,000 tons respectively [8]. Group 3: Price Trends and Market Reactions - Domestic cobalt prices in China have been reported between 270,000 to 290,000 yuan per ton, reflecting an upward trend in the market [3]. - The overall cobalt market is experiencing reduced supply and rising prices, with international demand also increasing, contributing to a bullish outlook for cobalt prices [3]. - Companies in the cobalt sector are currently assessing the new quota system and its implications for their operations, with some indicating that they have sufficient inventory to manage potential supply disruptions [10][11].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - On September 23, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range, with an increase in trading volume and a decrease in open interest. In the spot market, low - price transactions were acceptable, and the basis premium decreased. The prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite remained flat on the cost side. On the supply side, lithium carbonate production increased last week, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials also increased. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium manganate increased, while the production of power batteries remained basically flat last week. In the terminal market, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production slowed down, 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in September. In terms of inventory, registered warehouse receipts increased, and social inventory decreased. Overall, both supply and demand are strong, the inventory pressure of upstream is not large, and the expectation of lithium ore supply contraction is weakened. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a low level. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream restocking cycle and the deadline for Jiangxi's mining end to submit reserve reports. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Futures Market**: On September 23, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures increased compared with the previous day. The trading volume of the active contract was 497,857 hands (+101,212), and the open interest was 255,907 hands (-15,717). The inventory was 39,449 tons (+540). The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) decreased by 240 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Market**: The average prices of various lithium products such as spodumene concentrate, lepidolite, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide remained mostly unchanged, while the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium increased by 500 yuan/ton to 57,500 yuan/ton. The average prices of some ternary precursors and cathode materials also increased [1]. - **Inventory**: The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 981 tons to 137,531 tons last week. The inventory of smelters and others decreased, while the downstream inventory increased [1]. Industry News - **Chile**: Chile's economic development agency Corfo submitted a resolution to extend the contract of the Atacama Salt Lake project with SQM Salar SpA until 2030 and a new mineral lease contract with Codelco and Minera Tarapacá SoA from 2031 to 2060. SQM and Codelco are expected to finalize a partnership for the development of the Atacama Salt Flat in northern Chile this year, marking the first large - scale entry into lithium production in the region [1]. - **China**: On September 20, the first - phase lithium carbonate project of Luopu Tuhai New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. was put into operation in Xinjiang. The project has a total investment of 4.6 billion yuan, and after full - scale production, it can process 300,000 tons of lithium concentrate and produce 30,000 tons of battery - grade lithium carbonate annually [1].

2024年，锂电池板块营收2.25万亿元，同比略增0.07%；净利润1101.4亿元，同比下降22.02%。2025年 上半年，锂电池板块营收1.14万亿元，同比增长13.78%，正增长公司占比67.92%；净利润679.5亿元， 同比增长28.07%，正增长公司占比59.43%。豫股锂电池合计3家标的，标的数量在锂电池板块中占比 2.83%；豫股锂电池营收和净利润规模总体较小，其中豫股锂电池总营收占比在1.1%左右波动、而净利 润波动较大，2024年豫股锂电池总营收同比下降44.85%，净利润亏损；2025年上半年总营收下降 1.15%，净利润持续亏损。 全球及我国新能源汽车销售持续增长 智通财经APP获悉，中原证券发布研报称，2025年上半年，锂电池板块营收1.14万亿元，同比增长 13.78%，正增长公司占比67.92%；净利润679.5亿元，同比增长28.07%，正增长公司占比59.43%。2025 年以来，锂电产业链主要材料价格差异化，其中碳酸锂高度相关材料价格总体仍承压、钴相关产品价格 受外部政策影响显著上涨。截至9月19日：碳酸锂价格7.25万元/吨，较年初下跌4.28%，产业链价格下 降主要与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The end of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) on October 15, 2023, and the introduction of a quota system will significantly impact the global cobalt supply-demand balance, with expectations that the quota will not meet downstream demand, leading to tighter supply [1][3][9]. Group 1: Cobalt Export Ban and Quota System - The DRC, as the world's largest cobalt supplier, will end its seven-month cobalt export ban and implement an export quota system starting October 16, 2023 [3]. - The DRC's cobalt reserves are projected to be 6 million tons in 2024, accounting for 55% of global reserves, with an expected production of 220,000 tons, representing 76% of global output [3]. - The new quota system allows for the export of over 18,000 tons of cobalt for the remainder of the year, with annual quotas of 96,600 tons for 2026 and 2027, based on historical export volumes [9][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Price Trends - Following the announcement of the quota system, cobalt-related stocks in the A-share market saw a rise, indicating market optimism despite concerns about supply shortages [1]. - The current market for cobalt products has seen price increases, with electrolytic cobalt prices rising by 1% recently, reflecting tight supply conditions [4]. - Analysts predict that the initial shipments post-ban will be limited, with only about 3,600 tons expected to be shipped in October, which would only cover one-third of China's monthly cobalt intermediate consumption [9][10]. Group 3: Strategic Supply Diversification - Chinese companies are actively exploring overseas cobalt resource development and recycling to address challenges posed by the global cobalt supply chain restructuring [2][11]. - Notable progress has been made in Indonesia, with companies like Greeenme achieving significant increases in cobalt production, which helps mitigate the impact of the DRC's export ban [11]. - The recycling of cobalt from used batteries is becoming increasingly viable, with expectations that it will alleviate supply pressures as recovery rates improve in the coming years [12].

Group 1 - The cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will end on October 15, and a quota system will be implemented, impacting global cobalt supply and demand balance [1][2] - DRC holds 55% of the world's cobalt reserves, with a projected production of 220,000 tons in 2024, accounting for 76% of global output [2] - The introduction of the quota system is expected to lead to tighter cobalt supply, as the quota scale may not meet downstream demand in the next two years [1][3] Group 2 - China's refined cobalt production accounts for approximately 80% of the global market, with recent price increases observed in the spot market [3] - The current market sentiment is bullish, with many companies pausing quotes and awaiting clarity on the quota policy [3][4] - The DRC's export ban has led to a significant reduction in cobalt inventory, with some companies reporting a 35.09% increase in inventory levels [6] Group 3 - The new quota system allows for the export of over 18,000 tons of cobalt in the remaining months of this year, with future quotas set at 96,600 tons annually for 2026 and 2027 [7] - The goal of the new policy is to reduce global cobalt inventory to approximately one month's demand, contrasting with the typical three to four months of inventory held by major smelters [7][8] - The anticipated tight supply in the fourth quarter will depend on domestic and overseas inventory levels, with potential for speculative hoarding [7][8] Group 4 - Chinese companies are actively exploring new cobalt supply channels, including projects in Indonesia, which have shown significant production increases [9] - The recycling of cobalt from used batteries is becoming increasingly viable, with companies like Grinm Metal achieving over 10,000 tons of cobalt recovery last year [10] - The growth of cobalt recycling is expected to alleviate supply pressures as the industry approaches peak recovery rates in the coming years [10]

Group 1 - The cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will end on October 15, transitioning to an export quota system, which is expected to impact global cobalt supply and demand balance [1][2] - DRC holds 55% of the world's cobalt reserves, with a projected production of 220,000 tons in 2024, accounting for 76% of global output [2] - The introduction of the quota system is anticipated to be insufficient to meet downstream demand over the next two years, leading to tighter cobalt supply [1][3] Group 2 - China's refined cobalt production accounts for approximately 80% of the global market, with recent price increases observed in the spot market for cobalt-related products [3] - Analysts indicate that the current market is characterized by low inventory levels, leading to a bullish outlook on prices, despite some companies pausing quotes in anticipation of the new quota policy [3][4] - The DRC's export ban has resulted in a significant reduction in global cobalt inventory, with prices rebounding by over 63% since the lowest point in February [5][6] Group 3 - The new export quota allows for over 18,000 tons of cobalt to be exported by DRC mines for the remainder of the year, with future quotas set at 96,600 tons annually for 2026 and 2027 [7] - The goal of the new quota system is to reduce global cobalt inventory to approximately one month's demand, contrasting with the typical three to four months of inventory held by major smelters [7][8] - The anticipated supply tightness in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to be exacerbated by the long shipping times for cobalt shipments from DRC [7][8] Group 4 - Chinese companies are actively seeking to diversify cobalt supply sources, with significant investments in Indonesian cobalt projects, which have shown promising production increases [9] - The recycling of cobalt from used batteries is becoming increasingly viable, with companies like Grinm and others establishing recycling facilities to enhance resource recovery [10] - The expected rise in battery recycling rates by 2026 and 2027 is projected to alleviate some of the supply pressures on cobalt resources [10]