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金属新材料高频数据周报:电碳价格连续1个月上涨,氧化镨钕价格创2年新高-20250824
EBSCN· 2025-08-24 12:53
2025 年 8 月 24 日 有色金属 电碳价格连续 1 个月上涨,氧化镨钕价格创 2 年新高 ——金属新材料高频数据周报(20250818-20250824) 要点 军工新材料:铼粉价格上涨。(1)本周电解钴价格 26.00 万元/吨,环比 +0%。本周电解钴和钴粉价格比值 0.86 ,环比-1.7%;电解钴和硫酸钴价格 比值为 4.95 ,环比-0.6%。(2)碳纤维本周价格 83.8 元/千克,环比+0%。 毛利 -8.59 元/千克。 新能源车新材料:锂精矿价格下跌。(1)本周 Li2O 5%锂精矿中国到岸价 840 美元/吨,环比 -2.55%。(2)本周电碳、工碳和电池级氢氧化锂价格分 别为 8.35 、8.12 和 7.69 万元/吨,环比+7.9%、+8.08%和+8.5%。电碳与工 碳价差为 2024 年 11 月以来新低,或代表锂电景气度相较工业领域有所减 弱。(3)本周硫酸钴价格 5.20 万元/吨,环比+0%。(4)本周磷酸铁锂、 523 型正极材料价格分别为 3.43 、11.44 万元/吨,环比+0%、-0.1%。(5) 本周氧化镨钕价格 622.34 元/公斤,环比+11.6% ...
价格坚挺!一图梳理稀土小金属概念
天天基金网· 2025-08-22 11:17
财经图解 . 财经大事早知道,关注东方财富股票! 以下文章来源于财经图解 ,作者十字路口 周四(8月21日)小金属概念再度活跃,钨、稀土方向领涨,章源钨业涨停,中国稀土、北方稀土涨幅靠前。 今年以来电解钴、氧化钨、镨钕氧化物等价格不断上行。第三方机构数据显示,截至8月21日,金属钴平均报价26.3元/吨,较年初涨超50%;钨精矿价格 报21.8万元/吨,较年初上涨52%;稀土方面,镨钕氧化物平均价报65万元/吨左右,较年初上涨超50%。 作为"工业维生素",小金属在新能源、高端制造等领域用途广泛且难以替代。 多位分析人士表示,今年以来,小金属(稀土、钴、钨等)价格及相关个股十分亮眼,其核心驱动因素主要来自供应改变及新兴需求增长。其供需失衡的 基本面格局在未来较长时间内难有明显改观,价格上涨趋势或延续。 同时,一批小金属相关个股业绩显著提升。比如北方稀土预计上半年归母净利润同比增长上限超2000%,又比如盛和资源预计上半年净利润同比增长上限 超600%。 国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示,金属行业股期联动机制较为显著。当前小金属板块估值水平尚未充分反映市场预期,估值分化较为显著。 对于小金属后市,顾冯达表示,钴、锑 ...
有色金属行业周报(2025.08.11-2025.08.17):宏观情绪推升叠加供给干扰,有色维持偏强运行态势-20250817
Western Securities· 2025-08-17 12:30
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry maintains a strong operational trend due to macroeconomic sentiment and supply disruptions [1][2][3] - The U.S. and China have agreed to pause tariff increases for 90 days, which may positively impact trade relations [1] - Recent U.S. CPI data has increased expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, although PPI data suggests inflation may rise in the coming months [2][3] - The U.S. has expanded the range of steel and aluminum import tariffs, affecting hundreds of products [3] - Zambia's copper production has declined, raising concerns about meeting the government's annual production target of 1 million tons [5][19] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 3.62%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.92 percentage points [9] - Key stocks that performed well include Bowei Alloy (+39.60%) and Jintian Co. (+34.32%) [9] 2. Key Focus & Metal Prices & Inventory Changes 2.1 Industrial Metals - Copper prices on LME were $9,760/ton, down 0.08% week-on-week, while SHFE prices were ¥79,060/ton, up 0.73% [21][23] - Aluminum prices on LME were $2,603/ton, down 0.46%, and SHFE prices were ¥20,770/ton, up 0.41% [21][23] 2.2 Precious Metals - COMEX gold prices were $3,381.70/oz, down 2.21%, while SHFE gold prices were ¥775.80/g, down 1.52% [35][36] 2.3 Energy Metals - Battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rose to ¥82,000/ton, up 14.69% week-on-week [40][41] 2.4 Strategic Metals - Prices for praseodymium oxide reached ¥568,100/kg, up 5.46% week-on-week [44] 3. Core View Updates and Key Stock Tracking - For industrial metals, companies like Zijin Mining and Western Mining are recommended due to supply constraints and strong price support [54][56] - In precious metals, companies such as Chifeng Jilong Gold and Shandong Gold are favored due to ongoing U.S. tariff policies and debt issues [54] - Strategic metals like tungsten and antimony are expected to see valuation reconstruction opportunities, with recommendations for companies like Bowei Alloy [55]
碳酸锂日评:碳酸锂周度产量不降反升-20250815
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 07:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The profit of lithium carbonate has been restored, production has rebounded, downstream demand has increased, and social inventory has been depleted. In the short - term, both supply and demand have strengthened. The impact from Jiangxi's mining end continues, but the exchange has taken measures to cool down coking coal futures. It is necessary to guard against the decline of "contrarian" sentiment. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate widely. In operation, it is recommended to conduct short - term range trading and appropriately buy options for protection [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Data 3.1 Futures Market - On August 14, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated widely. The trading volume was 1,060,127 lots (-185,297), and the open interest was 389,177 lots (-3,498). The contango in the spot market was strong, and the basis discount narrowed [3] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased from $926.00 to $937.00; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) rose from $1,275.00 to $1,300.00; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) increased from $2,030.00 to $2,075.00; the price of montebrasite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was $0.00 (previously $7,250.00), and the price of montebrasite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) remained at $8,350.00 [3] 3.3 Lithium Product Prices - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) rose from $81,000.00 to $82,000.00; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% domestic) increased from $78,800.00 to $79,750.00; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan and South Korea) increased from $8.50/kg to $8.60/kg; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse - grained domestic) rose from $71,990.00 to $73,040.00; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% micronized domestic) increased from $77,110.00 to $78,110.00 [3] 3.4 Downstream Product Prices - The average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was $76,575.00; the average price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/power - type) remained at $76,830.00; the average price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) remained at $72,130.00; the average price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) remained at $90,235.00; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) rose from $118,795.00 to $118,995.00; the average price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) increased from $113,260.00 to $113,530.00; the average price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) increased from $116,330.00 to $116,610.00; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power - type) increased from $145,970.00 to $146,070.00; the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) rose from $35,050.00 to $35,390.00; the average price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to high - end energy - storage type) increased from $31,235.00 to $34,040.00; the average price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy - storage type) rose from $31,000.00 to $31,230.00; the average price of lithium cobalt oxide (60%, 4.35V/domestic) increased from $223,350.00 to $223,850.00 [3] 3.5 Supply and Demand - Supply side: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased. In August, the production of lithium hydroxide decreased, and the planned production of lithium carbonate increased. Last week, the production of power batteries increased [3] - Demand side: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. In August, the planned production of energy - storage batteries increased [3] 3.6 Inventory - Registered warehouse receipts were 21,939 tons (+260 tons). Social inventory decreased, smelters reduced inventory, while downstream and other sectors accumulated inventory. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 142,256 tons [3] 4. Market Information - The US July PPI annual rate reached 3.3%, the highest since February; the July PPI monthly rate was 0.9%, the largest increase since June 2022. After the data was released, interest - rate futures traders reduced their bets on Fed rate cuts [3]
钴观点交流20250812
2025-08-12 15:05
Summary of Cobalt Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cobalt industry is significantly impacted by the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) export ban, which affects China's cobalt intermediate imports, as 98%-99% of China's primary cobalt is sourced from DRC [2][4][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Cobalt Price Fluctuations**: The first export ban led to a doubling of cobalt intermediate prices, while the second ban saw a smaller increase of approximately 8.5%, indicating market expectations and inventory levels' influence [2][6]. - **Electrolytic Cobalt Profitability**: Electrolytic cobalt transitioned from positive to negative profitability due to high inventory levels and overcapacity, leading to forced destocking [2][8][11]. - **Sulfuric Cobalt Market**: Sulfuric cobalt briefly achieved profitability in March 2025 but fell back into losses due to supply and demand pressures, including weak demand from ternary battery precursors [9][12]. - **Chloride Cobalt and Ternary Oxide**: These products maintained relatively stable profits due to a make-to-order production model, benefiting from consumer subsidies, although profits are expected to decline due to raw material shortages [10][12]. - **Future Trends**: The cobalt industry is expected to face shortages by the end of August 2025, with prices projected to rise slowly until November [4][32]. Additional Important Insights - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: The cobalt supply chain is shifting towards resource acquisition capabilities and order binding, with a focus on reducing production costs due to profit compression across production stages [4][18]. - **Global Supply Balance**: The global cobalt supply may face an oversupply situation, but DRC's export restrictions create regional supply-demand imbalances [17][20]. - **Inventory Levels**: Current inventory levels vary significantly across different market participants, with electrolytic cobalt social inventory estimated to be around 8 months [15][14]. - **Impact of Price Increases**: Price increases in cobalt significantly affect demand for downstream products, particularly when prices reach around $26-$27 per pound, leading to reduced purchasing from manufacturers [25][32]. - **Future of Cobalt Recycling**: Domestic cobalt recycling is currently limited, contributing about 1,000 tons per month, with potential increases expected as raw material costs rise [24][29]. Conclusion The cobalt industry is navigating a complex landscape shaped by export bans, fluctuating prices, and shifting supply dynamics. The anticipated shortages and price increases in the coming months highlight the need for strategic adjustments within the industry to adapt to these changes.
碳酸锂日评:矿端扰动持续发酵-20250812
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 05:25
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Profit margins have recovered, leading to an increase in lithium carbonate production. However, disruptions at mining sites in Jiangxi have intensified. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will experience a strong and volatile trend in the short term. After the shutdown of some mines, the price has risen, and other lithium carbonate resources from the raw material end will enter the market to supplement supply, having little impact on the long - term supply - demand pattern. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Jiangxi mining end and the market's "feedback" sentiment. Short - term trading is recommended, and caution is needed when entering the market at high prices (View Score: +1) [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Futures Market**: On August 11, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures hit the daily limit. The trading volume was 38,071 lots (-857,538), and the open interest was 317,676 lots (-3,030). The spot market trading was weak, and the basis discount widened. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract was 79,000 yuan/ton (+3,700), the closing price of the continuous - one contract was 80,560 yuan/ton (+3,920), etc. [3] - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts were 19,389 tons (+560). Social inventory decreased, with smelters and other sectors reducing inventory, while downstream sectors increased inventory. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 142,418 tons (+692), with smelters at 20,999 tons (-959), downstream at 48,159 tons (+2,271), and other sectors at 43,260 tons (-620) [3] - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate increased (840 US dollars/ton, +63), and the price of mica also rose. For example, the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,155 yuan/ton (+35) [3] - **Product Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 74,500 yuan/ton (+2,600), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 72,300 yuan/ton (+2,500). The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/domestic) also increased [3] Industry News - In July, China's power battery installation volume was 55.9 GWh, a 4.0% decrease from the previous month but a 34.3% increase year - on - year. Among them, ternary battery installation volume was 10.9 GWh (19.6% of the total, a 1.9% increase from the previous month and a 3.8% decrease year - on - year), and lithium iron phosphate battery installation volume was 44.9 GWh (80.9% of the total, a 5.3% decrease from the previous month and a 49.0% increase year - on - year) [3] Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased. The production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials also increased. In August, the production of lithium manganate increased, and the production of lithium cobaltate decreased. The production of power batteries increased last week [3] - **Demand**: In July, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, the sales volume decreased from the previous month, and the 3C product shipments were average. In August, the production of energy - storage batteries increased [3]
锂、钴、稀土板块更新 (1)
2025-08-11 14:06
Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Lithium, Cobalt, and Rare Earth Sectors**: The conference call focused on updates regarding the lithium, cobalt, and rare earth sectors, highlighting supply-demand dynamics and price forecasts [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]. Key Points and Arguments Lithium Market - **Short-term Supply-Demand Tension**: The lithium carbonate market is experiencing short-term supply-demand tension, with production expected to reach approximately 70,000 tons in August against a demand of 96,000 tons per month. Current visible inventory can only sustain demand for about one and a half months [1][3]. - **Price Projections**: Short-term prices may surge to 100,000 CNY/ton, while long-term prices are expected to fluctuate between 90,000 to 100,000 CNY/ton, with a potential low of 60,000 CNY/ton depending on the resumption of overseas mining operations [1][3]. Cobalt Industry - **Impact of Congo's Ban**: The cobalt industry is significantly affected by the Democratic Republic of Congo's ban, leading to a noticeable contraction in supply. The government aims to increase cobalt prices through a quota system, with a potential reduction of over 70,000 tons by 2026, maintaining a tight market balance [1][4][5]. - **Price Increase**: The spot price of electrolytic cobalt has risen from 160,000 CNY to 260,000 CNY, with futures reaching 280,000 CNY. There is an anticipated further increase of 15%-20% before reaching 300,000 CNY, indicating high safety in both stock and commodity markets [1][5]. Rare Earth Sector - **Market Sentiment and Price Dynamics**: The rare earth sector has seen increased capital inflow due to expectations surrounding tariff policies from the Trump administration, although fundamental supply-demand changes remain minimal. The market is primarily driven by sentiment and policy expectations rather than significant fundamental shifts [1][6]. - **Inventory and Price Trends**: Inventory levels in the rare earth sector have improved since early July but remain at mid-to-low levels. The price of neodymium oxide has increased from 440,000 CNY to 530,000 CNY, with futures priced at 540,000 CNY. It is expected that prices will rise to 600,000 CNY without significant pressure [1][7][8]. - **Future Price Threshold**: A critical price point is identified at 600,000 CNY, beyond which downstream magnetic material companies may renegotiate processing fees based on order and demand conditions [1][7]. Demand Outlook - **Electric Vehicle Market**: Despite market expectations of a slowdown in the growth of new energy vehicles in the second half of the year, order placements in July and August remain strong, indicating no immediate pressure on demand. The overall outlook for the rare earth sector remains positive [2][9]. Investment Recommendations - **Target Companies**: Recommendations include companies in the light rare earth smelting sector such as Shenghe Resources and Northern Rare Earth, as well as magnetic material companies like Jieneng Permanent Magnet, Ningbo Yunsheng, and others. These companies are expected to benefit from price increases and future orders, presenting significant growth potential [1][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Overall Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the lithium, cobalt, and rare earth markets is cautiously optimistic, with potential for price increases driven by supply constraints and demand stability [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10].
锂、钴、稀土板块更新
2025-08-11 14:06
Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the lithium, cobalt, and rare earth sectors, highlighting current market conditions and future expectations for these industries. Key Points on Lithium Market - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing short-term supply-demand tightness, with battery cell production increasing by 5% month-on-month in July and August, leading to an expected production of approximately 70,000 tons in August against a demand of 96,000 tons per month. Current visible inventory can only sustain demand for about one and a half months [1][3] - Short-term lithium carbonate prices may surge to 100,000 yuan per ton, while long-term prices are expected to fluctuate between 90,000 and 100,000 yuan per ton, with a potential low of 60,000 yuan per ton depending on the resumption of overseas mining operations [1][3] Key Points on Cobalt Market - The cobalt industry is significantly impacted by the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) ban, leading to a noticeable contraction in supply. The DRC government aims to raise the cobalt price center through a quota system, with a potential reduction of over 70,000 tons in supply by 2026, maintaining a tight market balance [1][4] - The current spot price of electrolytic cobalt has risen from 160,000 yuan to 260,000 yuan, with futures prices reaching 280,000 yuan. There is an anticipated further increase of 15%-20% in prices, indicating a high safety margin for both stock and commodity sectors until prices reach 300,000 yuan [1][5] Key Points on Rare Earth Market - The rare earth sector is influenced by the Trump administration's tariff policies, leading to increased capital inflow, although the fundamental supply-demand dynamics remain largely unchanged. The market is driven more by sentiment and policy expectations than by significant fundamental changes [1][6] - Inventory levels in the rare earth industry have improved since early July but remain at mid-to-low levels. The price of neodymium oxide has increased from 440,000 yuan to 530,000 yuan, with futures prices reaching 540,000 yuan. It is expected that prices will not face significant pressure before reaching 600,000 yuan [1][7] - The market anticipates a decline in the growth rate of new energy vehicles in the second half of the year, but recent data from July and August shows good order conditions, indicating no immediate pressure on demand [2][9] Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch in the cobalt sector include Luoyang Muyu, Huayou Cobalt, Tengyuan Resources, and Liqin Resources, which possess cobalt mines or inventories and are expected to benefit from rising cobalt prices [1][5] - In the rare earth sector, recommended companies include Shenghe Resources and Northern Rare Earth for light rare earth smelting, and for magnetic material companies, Jinli Permanent Magnet, Ningbo Yunsheng, Zhenghai Magnetic Materials, Zhongke Sanhuan, and Chengdu Galaxy Magnetics are highlighted. These companies are expected to benefit from price increases and future orders in robotics, enhancing their performance and valuation [2][10]
金属新材料高频数据周报:枧下窝停产短期有望助推锂价抬升,铑价格创近2个月新高-20250811
EBSCN· 2025-08-11 02:46
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [5] Core Insights - The lithium price is expected to rise in the short term due to the suspension of operations at the Jiangxia lithium mine, along with supply disruptions from other mines [4] - The report highlights the price trends of various materials, including a decrease in cobalt prices and an increase in lithium concentrate prices [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Military New Materials - Electrolytic cobalt price is 260,000 CNY/ton, down 1.9% week-on-week, with a price ratio of electrolytic cobalt to cobalt powder at 0.89, down 6.9% [1][10] - Carbon fiber price remains stable at 83.8 CNY/kg, with a gross profit of -8.64 CNY/kg [1][21] New Energy Vehicle Materials - Lithium concentrate price is 669 USD/ton, up 4.69% week-on-week [1][8] - Prices for battery-grade lithium hydroxide and other lithium products show mixed trends, with battery-grade lithium hydroxide at 65,600 CNY/ton, up 0.6% [1][28] - Phosphate lithium price is 327,000 CNY/ton, stable week-on-week [1][40] Photovoltaic New Materials - Photovoltaic-grade polysilicon price is stable at 4.94 USD/kg [2] - EVA price remains at 10,100 CNY/ton, at a low level since 2013 [2] Nuclear Power New Materials - Uranium price is 59.58 USD/pound, up 4.0% [2] Other Materials - Rhodium price increased by 2.4% to 1,910 CNY/gram [3][18] - The report suggests focusing on companies with cost advantages and resource expansion potential in the lithium sector, such as Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium [4]
本周碳酸锂价格环比上涨,碳酸锂供需仍失衡且行业或难以出清
HUAXI Securities· 2025-08-09 15:26
Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The lithium carbonate price increased by 0.91% to 72,000 CNY/ton as of August 8, 2025, indicating a supply-demand imbalance in the industry that may be difficult to resolve [6][42] - Nickel prices rose, with LME nickel closing at 212,232 USD/ton, up 1.51% from August 1, 2025, while domestic nickel prices also increased by 1.05% to 121,000 CNY/ton [21][24] - Cobalt prices showed mixed trends, with electrolytic cobalt down 1.48% to 266,000 CNY/ton, while cobalt oxide rose by 2.54% to 203.50 CNY/kg [25][30] - Antimony prices decreased, with antimony ingot averaging 185,000 CNY/ton, down 1.33% from July 31, 2025, amid tight supply conditions [31][35] - The nickel industry faces potential supply disruptions due to the suspension of production lines by Chinese mining giant Tsingshan in Indonesia, which may impact local nickel mining and support nickel prices [12][24] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Updates - Nickel prices increased, with LME nickel at 212,232 USD/ton and domestic nickel at 121,000 CNY/ton, while supply remains stable despite weather conditions [21][24] - Cobalt prices fluctuated, with electrolytic cobalt down and cobalt oxide up, influenced by raw material shortages from the Democratic Republic of Congo [25][30] Antimony Industry Update - Antimony prices fell, with domestic antimony ingot at 185,000 CNY/ton, as supply remains tight and production is limited due to many manufacturers being offline [31][35] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices rose to 72,000 CNY/ton, with high inventory levels and slow de-stocking, indicating ongoing supply challenges [6][42] Rare Earth Industry Update - The rare earth market remains stable, with domestic production indicators not showing significant growth, and the U.S. government is working to rebuild its rare earth supply chain [15][42] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices increased, with LME tin at 33,900 USD/ton, as supply from Myanmar remains constrained due to production issues [9][15] Tungsten Industry Update - Tungsten prices rose slightly, with white tungsten at 193,500 CNY/ton, as supply remains tight due to reduced mining quotas [10][11] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Tianhua New Energy, Yahua Group, and Ganfeng Lithium, which are expected to benefit from the current market dynamics in lithium supply [42]