行业周报 | 有色金属 锑价触底回升且明显反弹，关注锑相关投资机会 有色金属行业周报（2025.11.17 -2025.11.23） 核心结论 本周核心关注一：美联储 10 月会议纪要显示，决策者对 12 月是否降息存在 较大分歧 美东时间周三（11 月 19 日），美联储公布了 10 月 28 日至 29 日的联邦公 开市场委员会（FOMC）货币政策会议纪要。会议纪要显示，决策者对 12 月是否继续降息存在较大分歧。FOMC 在 10 月会议上以 10 比 2 的投票结 果通过了降息 25 个基点的决定，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 3.75%-4.00%。 本周核心关注二：美国 9 月非农超预期，失业率升至 4.4%，降息预期降温 本周，美东时间周四，美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国 9 月非农就业 意外大增 11.9 万人，显著高于市场预期的 5 万人，失业率从 8 月的 4.3%升 至 4.4%，创 2021 年以来新高。此外，7 月份非农新增就业人数从 7.9 万人 下修 7000 人至 7.2 万人；8 月份非农新增就业人数从 2.2 万人下修 2.6 万至 -0.4 万人。修正后，7 月和 8 ...

| 碳酸锂日评20251124:仍具回调空间 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-11-21 | 2025-11-20 | 2025-11-14 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | 近月合约 收盘价 | 90960.00 | 98880.00 | 85720.00 | -7,920.00 | -5- | | 连一合约 收盘价 | 91020.00 | 98980.00 | 87220.00 | -7,960.00 | | | 连二合约 收盘价 | 91160.00 | 99160.00 | 87360.00 | -8,000.00 | | | 连三合约 收盘价 | 91160.00 | 99160.00 | 87060.00 | -8,000.00 | | | 收盘价 | 91020.00 | 98980.00 | 87360.00 | -7,960.00 | 11 | | 碳酸锂期货 成交堂(手) 活跃合约 (元/吨) | 1137824.00 | 1595646.00 | 757432.00 | -457 ...

| 碳酸锂日评20251120:谨防冲高回落 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-11-12 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-11-19 | 2025-11-18 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 近月合约 | 收盘价 | 99060.00 | 93420.00 | 84920.00 | 5,640.00 | | | 连一合约 | 收盘价 | 99300.00 | 93520.00 | 86500.00 | 5,780.00 | 收盘价 | 99300.00 | 93440.00 | 86580.00 | 5,860.00 | 连二合约 | | | 连三合约 | 收盘价 | 99300.00 | 93440.00 | 86280.00 | 5,860.00 | 收盘价 | 99300.00 | 93520.00 | 86580.00 | 5,780.00 | | | | 砖酸锂期货 | 成交堂(手) | 1767428 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a narrowing year-on-year growth in social retail sales for October, with a 2.9% increase compared to the previous year, down from 3.0% in September, primarily affected by high base effects and weak demand in the home appliance and real estate sectors [12][21] - The report highlights a general recovery in essential consumer goods, with significant improvements in categories such as grain and oil, food, tobacco, and clothing, while optional consumption shows mixed performance [21][22] Retail Sector Overview - The cumulative retail sales of social consumer goods from January to October reached 4,121.685 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous period [12] - In October, essential consumption categories saw an increase, with grain and oil food sales growing by 9.1%, while beverage sales turned positive at 7.1% [16][21] - The online retail sales of physical goods continued to rise, accounting for 25.2% of total retail sales, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [14] Information Technology Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Index experienced declines, while the DXI Index increased [2] - DRAM memory prices rose, and the production of integrated circuits saw an expanded year-on-year growth in October [2][8] Midstream Manufacturing Sector - Prices in the new energy supply chain generally increased, while the photovoltaic price index declined [5][7] - Sales of major engineering machinery companies in October showed a year-on-year growth slowdown [5][7] Consumer Demand Insights - Prices for fresh milk and sugar increased, while pork prices decreased [5][18] - The average ticket price for movies rose, and the ten-day average box office revenue increased significantly [5][19] Resource Sector Tracking - The average transaction volume of construction steel increased, and rebar prices rose [5][21] - Coal prices remained stable, while the inventory levels of coal and coke at major ports decreased [5][22] Financial and Real Estate Sector - The monetary market saw net injections, while the turnover rate and daily trading volume of A-shares declined [3][6] - The transaction area of commercial housing increased, but the year-on-year decline in housing completion area and sales expanded [3][6]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The current supply and demand are both strong. The news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is inconsistent, and the lithium carbonate production remains at a high level. High prices intensify the downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and the spot market transactions are slow. The power demand has shown signs of peaking, and the game between bulls and bears has intensified. The trading is overcrowded. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate widely and may fall after a sharp rise. Production enterprises can conduct selling hedging at high prices. [1] Summary According to Related Data Carbonate Lithium Futures - **Price Changes**: On November 18, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts decreased compared to November 17, 2025. For example, the near - month contract closed at 93,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,720 yuan/ton. [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 1,487,724 lots (+120,805), and the open interest was 484,357 lots (-78,597). [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory decreased by 342 tons to 26,611 tons. [1] Lithium Ore and Related Products - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The prices of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other lithium ores increased. For example, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,056 US dollars/ton, an increase of 32 US dollars/ton. [1] - **Lithium Compound Prices**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other lithium compounds increased. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 87,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,250 yuan/ton. [1] Downstream Product Prices - **Cathode Materials**: The prices of some cathode materials such as ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased slightly, while the prices of some ternary precursors remained unchanged. For example, the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 142,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton. [1] - **Anode Materials**: The price of artificial graphite (high - end) remained unchanged. [1] - **Electrolyte**: The prices of electrolytes for different applications remained unchanged. [1] - **Cobalt - Related Products**: The prices of cobalt - related products such as electrolytic cobalt and cobalt sulfate remained unchanged. [1] Inventory Situation - **SMM Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The total inventory decreased by 3,481 tons to 120,472 tons last week. The inventories of smelters and downstream decreased, while the inventory of other parts increased. [1] News and Policies - **Futures Transaction Fee Adjustment**: Starting from the trading time on November 20, 2025, the trading fee standard of the LC2601 contract of lithium carbonate futures is adjusted to 0.012% of the trading amount, and the intraday flat - today trading fee standard is also adjusted to 0.012% of the trading amount. [1] - **Sigma Lithium Production Suspension**: Sigma Lithium suspended the production of its flagship project in Brazil from late September to October to upgrade mining equipment. The company plans to complete the expansion by the end of 2026, increasing the total capacity from 245,000 tons/year to 520,000 tons/year. [1]

| 碳酸锂日评20251118:谨防冲高回落 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期(日) | | 2025-11-17 | 2025-11-14 | 2025-11-10 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | 收盘价 | 近月合约 | 95140.00 | 85720.00 | 84500.00 | 9,420.00 | | | 收盘价 | 连一合约 | 95200.00 | 87220.00 | 87120.00 | 7.980.00 | | | 收盘价 | 连二合约 | 94780.00 | 87060.00 | 87240.00 | 7,720.00 | | | 收盘价 | 连三合约 | 94780.00 | 87060.00 | 86940.00 | 7,720.00 | - | | 收盘价 | | 95200.00 | 87360.00 | 87240.00 | 7,840.00 | 3 | | 成交堂(手) 持仓堂(手) | 砖酸包期货 活跃合约 (元/吨) | 1366919.00 562954.00 ...

Core Insights - The China Securities report indicates that the CITIC Basic Chemical Industry Index rose by 0.75% in October 2025, ranking 18th among 30 CITIC primary industries, with potassium fertilizer, inorganic salts, and tire industries performing well [1][2] - The overall chemical product prices continued to decline in October 2025, prompting the industry to maintain a "market synchronization" investment rating [1][2] - The investment strategy for November 2025 suggests focusing on polyester filament, organic silicon, spandex, phosphate, and potassium fertilizer industries [1] Market Review - In October 2025, the CITIC Basic Chemical Industry Index increased by 0.75%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.10 percentage points but outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.75 percentage points, ranking 18th among 30 CITIC primary industries [2] - Over the past year, the CITIC Basic Chemical Index has risen by 28.58%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 8.00 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 9.31 percentage points, ranking 9th among 30 CITIC primary industries [2] Sub-industry and Stock Performance - In October 2025, among 33 CITIC tertiary sub-industries, 15 rose while 18 fell, with potassium fertilizer, inorganic salts, and tire industries leading with increases of 11.27%, 7.83%, and 6.51% respectively [2] - Conversely, carbon fiber, nylon, and rubber additives saw declines of 10.69%, 6.39%, and 5.87% respectively [2] - Out of 526 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 291 rose and 230 fell, with the top five gainers being Litong Technology, Haike New Source, Huide Technology, Yashichuangneng, and Tianji Shares, with increases of 76.03%, 71.56%, 59.91%, 58.35%, and 56.39% respectively [2] Product Price Tracking - In October 2025, international oil prices continued to decline, with WTI crude oil down by 2.23% to $60.98 per barrel and Brent crude oil down by 2.91% to $65.07 per barrel [3] - Among 321 tracked products, 67 saw price increases, with the top gainers being lithium cobalt oxide, sulfur, sulfuric acid, electrolytic cobalt, and argon, with increases of 35.98%, 23.37%, 18.52%, 17.78%, and 16.81% respectively [3] - A total of 216 products experienced price declines, with the largest decreases seen in refrigerant R22, butadiene, phenol, industrial naphthalene, and SBS, which fell by 46.88%, 16.99%, 15.72%, 14.29%, and 12.97% respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market" for the basic chemical industry [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, the CITIC Basic Chemical Industry Index rose by 0.75%, ranking 18th among 30 CITIC first-level industries. The potassium fertilizer, inorganic salt, and tire industries performed well, while chemical product prices continued to decline [2][4]. - The investment strategy for November 2025 suggests focusing on two dimensions, particularly in the polyester filament, organic silicon, spandex, phosphate fertilizer, and potassium fertilizer sectors [4][6]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The CITIC Basic Chemical Industry Index increased by 0.75% in October 2025, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.10 percentage points but outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.75 percentage points. Over the past year, the index has risen by 28.58%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 indices by 8.00 and 9.31 percentage points, respectively [8][9]. Sub-industry and Stock Performance - In October 2025, among 33 CITIC third-level sub-industries, 15 saw gains while 18 experienced declines. The potassium fertilizer, inorganic salt, and tire industries led with increases of 11.27%, 7.83%, and 6.51%, respectively. Conversely, carbon fiber, nylon, and rubber additives saw declines of 10.69%, 6.39%, and 5.87% [9][12]. - Out of 526 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 291 rose while 230 fell. The top gainers included Litong Technology, Haike New Source, and Huide Technology, with increases of 76.03%, 71.56%, and 59.91%, respectively. The largest declines were seen in Aggregated Materials, Blue Feng Biochemical, and United Chemical, with decreases of 27.32%, 24.90%, and 24.71% [9][13]. Product Price Tracking - In October 2025, international oil prices continued to decline, with WTI crude oil down 2.23% to $60.98 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.91% to $65.07 per barrel. Among 321 tracked products, 67 saw price increases, while 216 experienced declines, indicating an overall downward trend in basic chemical product prices [4][12]. Industry Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining the "Synchronize with the market" investment rating. With the ongoing deepening of anti-involution measures in the chemical industry, overall supply and demand are expected to improve, leading to further quality upgrades in the industry. The investment strategy for November 2025 emphasizes focusing on polyester filament, organic silicon, spandex, phosphate fertilizer, and potassium fertilizer sectors [4][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant surge in the rare metals sector, with the China Rare Metals Theme Index rising by 5.31% and several key stocks reaching their daily limit up [1] - The rare metals ETF fund has shown strong performance, with a 5.21% increase and a trading volume of 17.57 million yuan, indicating robust market interest [1] - Recent price increases in upstream lithium battery materials, such as battery-grade lithium carbonate and cobalt, are driving market optimism, with prices rising by 15.65% and 17.69% respectively since early October 2025 [1] Group 2 - The supply-demand structure for lithium carbonate is marginally improving, with a 11.95% increase in average prices in Q3 2025, leading to a recovery in profitability for related companies [2] - Key companies in the rare metals sector include Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Ganfeng Lithium, with the top ten stocks accounting for 60% of the index [2] - The performance of the top ten stocks shows significant gains, with Northern Rare Earth up by 3.16% and Ganfeng Lithium up by 7.10%, reflecting strong market dynamics [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a positive trend with all three major indices opening lower but rising throughout the morning session, driven by significant gains in precious and energy metals, particularly lithium-related stocks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market indices experienced a low opening but subsequently increased, with notable stocks such as Tianhua New Energy rising over 10% and Rongjie Co. hitting the daily limit [1] - Rare metal ETF (562800) saw an intraday increase of over 4%, reflecting the positive sentiment in the market [1] Group 2: Price Trends of Raw Materials - Prices of upstream raw materials for lithium batteries have risen significantly, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 85,000 yuan/ton, a 15.65% increase from early October 2025 [1] - The price of electrolytic cobalt reached 402,500 yuan/ton, marking a 17.69% increase since early October [1] - Lithium hexafluorophosphate saw a dramatic price increase of 105.0%, now priced at 123,000 yuan/ton compared to early October [1] Group 3: ETF Composition - The rare metal ETF (562800) tracks the CSI Rare Metal Theme Index, which includes sectors such as rare earths, lithium, copper, cobalt, and tungsten [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the ETF include leading companies like Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, and Salt Lake Potash [1]