行业周报 | 有色金属 美伊冲突升级，持续看好贵金属+战略小金属 有色金属行业周报（2026.2.15-2026.3.1） 本周核心关注三：缅北武装冲突再起，引发市场锡矿供应担忧 据 SMM，2026 年 2 月中下旬以来，缅甸掸邦北部局势再度紧张，引发市场 对缅甸锡矿供应链的担忧。此次冲突区域为贵概（Kutkai）地区。由于曼相 矿区深处佤邦腹地，地理位置偏东，与贵概相距较远，暂未受到贵概战火的 直接波及，锡矿跨境发运也暂未面临实质性阻断风险。不过鉴于缅北整体地 缘政治形势复杂多变，市场仍需持续关注边境地区可能引发的连锁反应。 本周核心关注四：美国最高法院裁决判定依据《国际紧急经济权力法》征收 的关税违法，但特朗普警告将采取更高关税措施 2026 年 2 月 20 日，美国最高法院裁定，特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权 力法》实施的相关大规模关税措施缺乏明确法律授权。不过，美最高法院的 这项裁决仅限制总统通过《国际紧急经济权力法》实施关税，并未完全剥夺 其征收关税的权力。裁决公布后，特朗普 20 日转而依据《1974 年贸易法》 第 122 条，宣布加征"全球进口关税"，税率 10%，为期 150 天，以取代 ...

有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 政策扰动频发，供给收缩预期强化 ——钴锂金属行业周报 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 短期来看，津巴布韦出口扰动叠加节后补库情绪共振，锂价弹性明显放大，但短期仍需 警惕津巴政府风向突转、情绪回落带来的波动加剧。中期维度下，下游储能需求热仍在 延续，供应端更常态化的扰动或放大市场整体担忧情绪，锂价中枢在二季度前有进一步 上移空间。钴板块受原料成本支撑，到港量依旧不足，整体下行空间有限，预计短期内 维持偏强震荡。 风险提示 新能源汽车增速不及预期，储能装机增速不及预期。 | 国家/地区 | 中国 | | --- | --- | | 行业 | 有色金属行业 | | 报告发布日期 | 2026 年 02 月 28 日 | | 于嘉懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110005 | | --- | --- | | | yujiayi1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 宁紫微 | 执业证书编号：S0860525120005 | | | ningziwei@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the lithium and cobalt sectors, indicating clear investment value and suggesting active positioning in these areas [8][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that supply disruptions, particularly from Zimbabwe, have intensified expectations for supply contraction, leading to a significant rebound in lithium prices post-holiday. The lithium price is expected to continue rising in the second quarter due to ongoing demand in the energy storage sector and supply-side disturbances [4][12][13]. - Cobalt prices are supported by raw material costs, with insufficient arrival volumes at ports, indicating limited downward space in the short term [4][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Supply Disruptions Trigger Lithium Price Rebound - The lithium sector is experiencing price acceleration due to supply disturbances and post-holiday replenishment. Futures contracts have seen significant weekly increases, with the Wuxi contract rising 16.95% to 174,600 CNY/ton and the Guangzhou contract increasing 15.33% to 176,000 CNY/ton. Lithium concentrate prices have also surged, with a reported increase of 372 USD/ton to 2,372 USD/ton [8][12][13]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - Zimbabwe has announced an immediate suspension of all raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports, aiming to strengthen mineral regulation and accountability. This move is expected to compress the available supply from Africa, increasing uncertainty and risk premiums in the raw material sector [16]. - Core Lithium has agreed to sell its lithium spodumene inventory to Glencore, which is expected to provide significant momentum for potential resumption of production [16]. 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials: Mixed Production Changes and Price Increases - In January, domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 5% month-on-month, while hydroxide production decreased by 4%. The report indicates a structural adjustment in inventory levels [17][18]. - The report notes that cobalt production in January saw a month-on-month decline of 5% for sulfate and 8% for chloride, while year-on-year increases were recorded at 13% and 32%, respectively [20][29]. 4. Lithium Salt Import and Export Data - In December, lithium carbonate imports rose by 9% month-on-month, while hydroxide exports surged by 88%. This reflects a strong demand and supply dynamic in the lithium market [34][40]. 5. Price Trends in New Energy Metals - The average weekly price for battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 18.35%, while industrial-grade prices rose by 18.83%. The average price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide also saw a significant increase of 15.35% [63][64].

有色金属 2026 年 2 月 26 日 氧化镨钕价格已至 85 万元/吨，近一个月涨 26%、近三个月涨 56% ——金属新材料高频数据周报（20260209-20260215） 要点 军工新材料：电解钴价格上涨。（1）本周电解钴价格 42.30 万元/吨，环比 +0.7%。本周电解钴和钴粉价格比值 0.74 ，环比+0.7%；电解钴和硫酸钴价 格比值为 4.31 ，环比+0.7%。（2）碳纤维本周价格 83.8 元/千克，环比 +0%。毛利-9.19 元/千克。 新能源车新材料：氢氧化锂价格上涨。（1）本周碳酸锂和氢氧化锂价格分别 为 14.38 、13.76 万元/吨，环比+6.9%、+3.9%。（2）本周硫酸钴价格 9.53 万元/吨，环比+0%。（3）本周磷酸铁锂、523 型正极材料价格分别为 5.24 、18.73 万元/吨，环比+0%、+4.1%。（4）本周氧化镨钕价格 849.82 元/公斤，环比+12.2%。 光伏新材料：价格持平。（1）本周光伏级多晶硅价格 6.19 美元/千克，环比 +0%。（2）本周 EVA 价格 9,650 元/吨，环比+0%，处于 2013 年来较低位 置。（3）本 ...

有色观点更新220260223 钨：截至2月13日，钨精矿价格报69.7万元/标吨，周涨幅3.3%；较2025年末上涨23.7万元，涨幅51%。 钨价延续2026年以来的强劲上涨惯性，同时受到大型钨企长单报价的支撑，整体呈现先扬后稳的运行态势。 国际钨价跟涨，主要基于供应链短缺压力，作为全球钨资源80%的供应来源，中国出口管制和私采打击等措施， 导致海外原料采购难度加大，叠加海外钨资源项 有色观点更新220260223 钨：截至2月13日，钨精矿价格报69.7万元/标吨，周涨幅3.3%；较2025年末上涨23.7万元，涨幅51%。 重点关注：厦门钨业、中钨高新、翔鹭钨业。 锂：本周碳酸锂现货价格震荡上行。 电池级碳酸锂均价从周初的13.55万元/吨持续上涨至周四的14.25万元/吨，全周上涨7000元/吨。 工业级碳酸锂均价从13.2万元/吨上涨至13.9万元/吨，上涨7000元/吨。 期货市场表现强劲，主力合约价格区间自周初的13.5-14.1万元/吨震荡上行至14.6-15.24万元/吨。 随着春节临近，物流陆续暂停，下游材料厂对2月份的备货已基本完成，多数企业转向观望，采购心理价位偏低。 市场成交以零星 ...

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal industry index decreased by 5.42% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 28th among 31 Shenwan first-level industries [1] - Precious metals, energy metals, minor metals, industrial metals, and new metal materials all experienced varying degrees of decline, with energy metals dropping the most at 11.47% [1] Group 2 - As of February 6, COMEX gold closed at $4,988.60 per ounce, showing a slight increase of 0.11% over the past two weeks, while COMEX silver fell by 24.92% to $77.53 per ounce [2] - LME copper settled at $12,840.00 per ton, down 0.62%, and domestic copper averaged 99,560 yuan per ton, down 1.68% [2] - The price of black tungsten concentrate increased by 25.09% to 673,000 yuan per ton, while lithium carbonate dropped by 21.35% to 134,500 yuan per ton [2] Group 3 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange is seeking public opinion on the revision of lead futures contract rules, proposing to include recycled lead ingots as alternative delivery products, aligning with the green and low-carbon transition of the non-ferrous metal industry [3] - The new national standard for recycled lead will be implemented on March 1, 2026, enhancing risk management capabilities and promoting the development of a circular economy in the industry [3]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 光伏新材料：多晶硅价格下跌 （1）本周光伏级多晶硅价格6.19 美元/千克，环比 -6.5%。（2）本周EVA价格9,650元/吨，环比+0%，处 于2013年来较低位置。（3）本周3.2mm光伏玻璃镀膜价格24.0 元/平米，环比+0%。 核电新材料：铀价上涨 报告摘要 军工新材料：电解钴价格下跌 （1）本周电解钴价格42.00 万元/吨，环比 -5.2%。本周电解钴和钴粉价格比值0.73 ，环比-5.2%；电解钴 和硫酸钴价格比值为4.28 ，环比-5.2%。（2）碳纤维本周价格83.8元/千克，环比+0%。毛利-9.19元/千 克。 新能源车新材料：氢氧化锂价格下跌 （1）本周碳酸锂和氢氧化锂价格分别为13.44 、13.25 万 ...

2026 年 2 月 9 日 有色金属 铼粉价格连续 2 个月上涨 ——金属新材料高频数据周报（20260202-20260208） 要点 军工新材料：电解钴价格下跌。（1）本周电解钴价格 42.00 万元/吨，环比 -5.2%。本周电解钴和钴粉价格比值 0.73 ，环比-5.2%；电解钴和硫酸钴价格 比值为 4.28 ，环比-5.2%。（2）碳纤维本周价格 83.8 元/千克，环比+0%。 毛利-9.19 元/千克。 新能源车新材料：氢氧化锂价格下跌。（1）本周碳酸锂和氢氧化锂价格分别 为 13.44 、13.25 万元/吨，环比-16.2%、-16.1%。（2）本周硫酸钴价格 9.53 万元/吨，环比+0%。（3）本周磷酸铁锂、523 型正极材料价格分别为 5.24 、18.00 万元/吨，环比+0%、-3.5%。（4）本周氧化镨钕价格 757.72 元/公斤，环比+1.2%。 光伏新材料：多晶硅价格下跌。（1）本周光伏级多晶硅价格 6.19 美元/千 克，环比 -6.5%。（2）本周 EVA 价格 9,650 元/吨，环比+0%，处于 2013 年 来较低位置。（3）本周 3.2mm 光伏玻璃镀膜价格 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment remains volatile, leading to increased volatility in the commodity market. Short-term demand for replenishment supports prices after a correction in lithium carbonate futures. In the medium term, supply constraints and rising costs at the mining level maintain an upward price trend for lithium. The cobalt sector is supported by raw material costs, with limited downside potential despite price corrections, and the market is expected to remain in a state of fluctuation [4][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Lithium and cobalt core targets have clear investment value, suggesting active positioning. Lithium carbonate prices have significantly corrected, with downstream purchasing concentrated on replenishment. Futures contracts saw a weekly decline of 10.25% to 133,900 CNY/ton for the Wuxi 2605 contract and 10.92% to 132,000 CNY/ton for the Guangxi 2605 contract. Lithium concentrate prices were reported at 1,880 USD/ton, down 90 USD from the previous week [9][14] 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent announcements include support for rural consumption expansion, particularly in new energy vehicles and smart home appliances, as outlined in the 2026 Central Document No. 1. Tian Tie Technology announced its subsidiary completed high-tech enterprise re-certification. Shengxin Lithium Energy plans to acquire a 13.93% stake in Huirong Mining for 1.2597 billion CNY to enhance lithium supply security [18] 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials - January production of domestic lithium carbonate increased by 5% month-on-month, while hydroxide production decreased by 4%. The inventory showed structural adjustments [19][23]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [6] Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment remains volatile, leading to increased volatility in the commodity market. Short-term demand for replenishment supports prices after a correction in carbonate lithium futures. In the medium term, limited supply of lithium salts and rising costs at the mining level maintain the upward price logic for lithium. The cobalt sector is supported by raw material costs, with prices showing resilience despite a recent correction, and overall downward space is limited, with expectations of market stabilization [4][9][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Lithium and cobalt core targets have clear investment value, suggesting active positioning. The carbonate lithium price has significantly corrected, with downstream concentrated purchasing for replenishment. Futures contracts saw a weekly drop of 10.25% to 133,900 CNY/ton for Wuxi and 10.92% to 132,000 CNY/ton for Guangxi. Lithium concentrate prices fell to 1,880 USD/ton, down 90 USD from the previous week [9][14]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent announcements include the central government's initiatives to expand rural consumption, supporting the adoption of new energy vehicles and smart appliances. Tian Tie Technology's subsidiary has been re-certified as a high-tech enterprise, while Shengxin Lithium Energy plans to acquire a 13.93% stake in Huirong Mining to enhance lithium supply security [18]. 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials - January production of domestic carbonate lithium increased by 5%, while hydroxide lithium production decreased by 4%. The inventory showed structural adjustments, with a weekly decrease in carbonate lithium production of 3.82% and inventory down by 1.88% [19][48].