Summary of Cobalt Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cobalt industry is significantly impacted by the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) export ban, which affects China's cobalt intermediate imports, as 98%-99% of China's primary cobalt is sourced from DRC [2][4][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Cobalt Price Fluctuations**: The first export ban led to a doubling of cobalt intermediate prices, while the second ban saw a smaller increase of approximately 8.5%, indicating market expectations and inventory levels' influence [2][6]. - **Electrolytic Cobalt Profitability**: Electrolytic cobalt transitioned from positive to negative profitability due to high inventory levels and overcapacity, leading to forced destocking [2][8][11]. - **Sulfuric Cobalt Market**: Sulfuric cobalt briefly achieved profitability in March 2025 but fell back into losses due to supply and demand pressures, including weak demand from ternary battery precursors [9][12]. - **Chloride Cobalt and Ternary Oxide**: These products maintained relatively stable profits due to a make-to-order production model, benefiting from consumer subsidies, although profits are expected to decline due to raw material shortages [10][12]. - **Future Trends**: The cobalt industry is expected to face shortages by the end of August 2025, with prices projected to rise slowly until November [4][32]. Additional Important Insights - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: The cobalt supply chain is shifting towards resource acquisition capabilities and order binding, with a focus on reducing production costs due to profit compression across production stages [4][18]. - **Global Supply Balance**: The global cobalt supply may face an oversupply situation, but DRC's export restrictions create regional supply-demand imbalances [17][20]. - **Inventory Levels**: Current inventory levels vary significantly across different market participants, with electrolytic cobalt social inventory estimated to be around 8 months [15][14]. - **Impact of Price Increases**: Price increases in cobalt significantly affect demand for downstream products, particularly when prices reach around $26-$27 per pound, leading to reduced purchasing from manufacturers [25][32]. - **Future of Cobalt Recycling**: Domestic cobalt recycling is currently limited, contributing about 1,000 tons per month, with potential increases expected as raw material costs rise [24][29]. Conclusion The cobalt industry is navigating a complex landscape shaped by export bans, fluctuating prices, and shifting supply dynamics. The anticipated shortages and price increases in the coming months highlight the need for strategic adjustments within the industry to adapt to these changes.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of lithium carbonate futures has soared due to supply disruptions and market sentiment, but the fundamental contradictions have not been substantially reversed. The actual reduction from the Jiangxi mine shutdown may be partially offset by import increases. The downstream purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and the weak trading reflects the limited acceptance of high prices in the industry chain. The continuous accumulation of social inventory and warehouse receipts suppresses the rebound momentum of spot prices. It is expected that the price will enter a high - level oscillation range in the next 1 - 2 weeks, but there is a risk of a callback after the sentiment fades [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Changes**: On August 11, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract rose to 81,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.25% from August 8. Affected by the news of the lithium mine shutdown over the weekend, all contracts were at the daily limit. The basis weakened significantly from - 5,710 yuan/ton to - 8,800 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest decreased slightly by 0.94% to 317,600 lots, and the trading volume dropped sharply by 95.75% to 38,000 lots, indicating a highly consistent bullish sentiment in the market [1]. - **Supply and Demand in the Industrial Chain and Inventory Changes**: On the supply side, the Jiangxi Jianxiawo mining area stopped production on August 9 due to the expiration of the mining license, restricting the supply of lithium mica. However, the lithium extraction capacity from spodumene remained high, and there was potential supply elasticity from overseas mines in Africa and South America, resulting in a differentiated supply pressure in China. Lithium salt plants could make up for short - term shortages through inventory or imported ores. On the demand side, downstream demand showed differentiation. In July, the retail volume of new energy vehicles decreased by 10% month - on - month, but the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate materials rebounded to 32,850 yuan/ton, supported by the stocking demand of energy storage and some battery factories. The price of ternary materials remained stable, indicating that the demand for vehicle - used power batteries had not significantly increased. As of August 7, the social inventory increased to 142,400 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory soared to 18,800 tons, indicating a loose supply in the spot circulation link and strong delivery intention, which suppressed the upward space of near - month contracts [2]. - **Market Summary**: The short - term price of lithium carbonate futures has rapidly risen due to supply disruptions and sentiment, but the fundamental contradictions have not been resolved. The actual reduction from the Jiangxi mine shutdown may be partially offset by imports. Downstream purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and the light trading reflects limited acceptance of high prices. The continuous accumulation of inventory suppresses the rebound of spot prices. It is expected that the price will oscillate at a high level in the next 1 - 2 weeks, but there is a risk of a callback after the sentiment fades [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes**: From August 8 to August 11, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased from 76,960 yuan/ton to 81,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 5.25%. The basis weakened from - 5,710 yuan/ton to - 8,800 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 0.94% to 317,676 lots, and the trading volume dropped by 95.75% to 38,071 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.33% to 72,200 yuan/ton, the market price of spodumene concentrate rose by 12.5% to 900 yuan/ton, and the market price of lithium mica concentrate increased by 8.33% to 975 yuan/ton. From August 1 to August 8, the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained at 63.92%, and the lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.49% to 142,418 tons [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On August 11, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose to 74,567 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased to 74,500 yuan/ton. The suspension of mining in the Jiangxi Jianxiawo area affected the output of lithium mica and related lithium carbonate, causing the lithium carbonate futures to open at the daily limit. However, the increase in spodumene - based lithium carbonate and the use of inventory or zero - order purchases by related lithium salt plants could prevent a significant shortage in the spot market. Both upstream and downstream parties were cautious, and market trading was light [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association, from July 1 - 31, the retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 1.003 million, a 14% year - on - year increase but a 10% month - on - month decrease. The wholesale volume was 1.179 million, a 25% year - on - year increase but a 4% month - on - month decrease [7]. - **Industry News**: From late July to the end of the month, the price of cobalt intermediate products continued to rise. On the supply side, major mining companies suspended public quotations, and some traders reduced inventory and controlled shipments. On the demand side, the price increase of cobalt smelting products was slower than that of cobalt intermediate products, leading to cost inversion for smelting plants. Some smelting enterprises with low inventory planned to substitute raw materials or reduce production. Affected by the delay policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the supply of cobalt intermediate products in China may be short, and prices may rise, but the impact on downstream demand needs attention [8][9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [8] Core Views - The report highlights a significant decline in China's cobalt intermediate imports in June, with a month-on-month decrease of 61.6%, indicating a potential supply vacuum in the second half of the year [2][4] - Lithium prices are expected to rebound in the short term due to recent positive signals, but long-term resource clearing signals remain unclear [4] - Strategic metals such as rare earths and tungsten are undergoing a value reassessment, with strong demand recovery anticipated in the medium to long term [4] Summary by Sections Cobalt and Nickel - China's cobalt intermediate imports in June were 18,991 tons, down 61.6% month-on-month, leading to a potential second wave of price increases as domestic inventory is digested [2][4] - Nickel prices are expected to stabilize as macroeconomic expectations improve, with a long-term upward price trend anticipated [4] Lithium - Recent events, including regulatory changes in lithium mining, indicate stricter domestic mining controls, contributing to short-term price increases for lithium products [4] - The report suggests that while short-term momentum is strong, the long-term supply-demand balance remains uncertain [4] Strategic Metals - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten, with a notable price increase for rare earth concentrates reported at 19,100 yuan/ton, up 1.5% month-on-month [4] - The demand for rare earths is expected to recover due to traditional applications and the acceleration of humanoid robot deployment [4] Market Performance - The report notes that the metal materials and mining sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 1.70% [14] - The report recommends focusing on companies with cost advantages and volume growth potential in the strategic metals sector [4]

Group 1 - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting between 220 million to 238 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 98.77% to 115.03% [1] - The increase in profit is attributed to enhanced operational management, growth in overseas business, and improved production capacity of cathode copper, which has led to increased sales and profit margins [1] - The company has also benefited from rising cobalt prices, which have positively impacted the gross margin of cobalt products [1] Group 2 - The company plans to invest in a new copper wet smelting plant in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with a total investment not exceeding 165 million USD (approximately 1.183 billion yuan) [2] - This investment is part of the company's long-term strategic layout in the region, which is rich in copper and cobalt resources, ensuring stable and secure raw material supply [2] - The new plant is expected to enhance production capacity and improve cost control through the advantages of local resources and wet smelting technology, thereby increasing the company's competitiveness in the global copper and cobalt market [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the price of lithium carbonate shows a divergence between futures and spot markets. The spot market price may oscillate upwards due to the repair of downstream production scheduling expectations and some rigid demand. In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the market may maintain a range - bound oscillation. The upside pressure comes from high inventory and continuous supply growth, while the downside support is from the seasonal stocking demand of the new energy industry chain and the rigid cost. There is a risk of short - term over - inflation in the futures market due to capital disturbances. The medium - term direction awaits a substantial increase in demand [4]. - The lithium carbonate price may maintain a low - level oscillation pattern. Whether it can continue to rise depends on the actual recovery of the demand side. If the demand recovery fails to meet expectations, the price may face pressure again [7]. Section Summaries 1. Daily Market Summary a. Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Analysis - On July 11, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 64,280 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.16% from the previous day. The basis strengthened by 200 points to - 580 yuan/ton, and the market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate rose by 300 yuan to 63,700 yuan/ton. The expected marginal improvement in supply and demand supported the spot price. - The position of the main contract decreased slightly by 0.25% to 322,860 lots, and the trading volume increased to 402,816 lots, indicating an increase in the activity of short - term capital games [2]. b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply, Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: The capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate slightly increased to 62%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous week. The prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained flat at 665 yuan/ton and 765 yuan/ton for a week. The cost pressure of upstream lithium mines has not been transmitted to the smelting end, and domestic production remains at a high level [3]. - Demand side: The retail and wholesale data of new energy vehicles increased by 21% and 31% year - on - year respectively, with a slight differentiation compared to last month. The marginal improvement momentum on the demand side was still insufficient. The prices of downstream cathode materials rose moderately, the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased by 80 yuan to 31,030 yuan/ton per week, and the cell price remained stable. Material manufacturers' inventory replenishment was mainly for rigid demand, and their procurement strategies were cautious [3]. - Inventory and warehouse receipts: The total inventory of lithium carbonate continued to accumulate, reaching 140,793 tons in the week of July 11, with the growth rate expanding to 1.77% [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On July 11, 2025, compared with July 10, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate increased by 100 yuan to 64,280 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.16%. The basis strengthened by 200 yuan to - 580 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 25.64%. The position of the main contract decreased by 823 lots to 322,860 lots, with a change rate of - 0.25%. The trading volume of the main contract increased by 4,794 lots to 402,816 lots, with a change rate of 1.20%. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 300 yuan to 63,700 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.47%. The market prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 500 yuan to 50,550 yuan/ton, with a change rate of - 0.98%. The price of power - type ternary materials increased by 60 yuan to 115,155 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.05%. The price of power - type lithium iron phosphate increased by 25 yuan to 31,055 yuan/ton, with a change rate of 0.08% [6]. - Compared with July 4, 2025, on July 11, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 62.00%, with a change rate of 0.32%. The inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 2,446 tons to 140,793 tons, with a change rate of 1.77%. The price of 523 cylindrical ternary cells increased by 0.01 yuan to 4.31 yuan/piece, with a change rate of 0.23%. The prices of 523 square ternary cells, 523 soft - pack ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells remained unchanged. The price of cobalt - acid lithium cells increased by 0.01 yuan to 5.52 yuan/Ah, with a change rate of 0.18% [6]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations a. Spot Market Quotations - On July 11, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 63,557 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price range of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,800 - 64,700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 63,750 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The price range of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 61,650 - 62,650 yuan/ton, with an average price of 62,150 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continued to oscillate upwards, but the spot trading activity was low. Downstream material manufacturers had insufficient willingness to stock up and adopted a relatively cautious procurement strategy. The rigid demand of some downstream enterprises supported the price, and the improved production scheduling expectations of the new energy industry chain in July improved market sentiment. However, the supply - side pressure remained unrelieved, the production of lithium carbonate remained high, and the industry inventory was abundant, limiting the upside space of the price. The futures market showed an irrational rebound, deviating from the spot fundamentals, and there was a risk of short - term capital - driven fluctuations [7]. b. Downstream Consumption Situation - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on July 10, from July 1 - 6, the retail volume of the new energy passenger vehicle market nationwide was 135,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 21% compared with the same period in July last year and a decrease of 11% compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 56.7%, and the cumulative retail volume since the beginning of this year was 6.583 million units, a year - on - year increase of 37%. From July 1 - 6, the wholesale volume of new energy vehicles by national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 125,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 31% compared with the same period in July last year and a 0% increase compared with the same period last month. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers was 53.6%, and the cumulative wholesale volume since the beginning of this year was 5.594 million units, a year - on - year increase of 33% [8]. c. Industry News - On July 10, the SMM weekly review showed that the spot price of cobalt intermediates continued to rise. On the supply side, most enterprises maintained a bullish attitude and suspended quotations, while a small number of enterprises further raised their quotations. On the demand side, smelters faced difficulties such as inverted production costs and weak downstream demand. Most enterprises mainly consumed their own inventories, and some smelters with low inventories inquired in the market, but due to the large price difference between buyers and sellers, there were still few actual transactions. Affected by the extension policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the cobalt intermediates in China may face raw material shortages in the future, and the price has an upward driving force, but the impact of rising raw material prices on downstream demand needs to be noted [10]. - On July 4, Zangge Mining's wholly - owned subsidiary participated in the investment in a project. The Tibet Ali Mami Cuo Mining Development Co., Ltd., which is invested and controlled by the Jiangsu Zangqing New Energy Industry Development Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership), received the "Construction Project Construction Permit" for the "Mami Cuo Salt Lake Mining Area Lithium - Boron Ore Mining Project", which is beneficial to expanding the company's lithium salt production capacity from salt lakes, enhancing the company's core competitiveness and industry influence, and creating new profit growth points for the company [11]. - On July 3, the SMM weekly review showed that the spot price of cobalt intermediates continued to rise. A mining enterprise announced force majeure, further strengthening the bullish sentiment of mines and traders. Most enterprises still suspended quotations, and a small number of quoting enterprises further raised their quotations. Smelters faced difficulties such as inverted production costs and weak downstream demand, and most enterprises mainly consumed their own inventories. Some smelters with low inventories inquired in the market, but due to the large price difference between buyers and sellers, there were still few actual transactions. Affected by the extension policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the cobalt intermediates in China may face raw material shortages in the future, and the price has an upward driving force, but the impact of rising raw material prices on downstream demand needs to be noted [11].

Core Viewpoint - Daoshi Technology is making a significant overseas investment of approximately 1.183 billion yuan to establish a copper wet smelting plant in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, aimed at expanding production capacity and securing resource supply [1][2][3]. Investment and Expansion - The company plans to invest in a project that will produce 30,000 tons of cathode copper and 2,710 tons of cobalt intermediates, with a project cycle of 18 months [2][3]. - This investment is part of Daoshi Technology's long-term strategic layout in the Congo, a region rich in copper and cobalt resources, which will enhance the stability and security of raw material supply [2][3]. Production Capacity and Growth - Daoshi Technology's cathode copper production is projected to reach 40,900 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 32%, marking a historical high [1][3]. - The company is also expected to produce 1,743 tons of cobalt intermediates in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of about 227% [3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Daoshi Technology reported a revenue of 7.752 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.25%, and a net profit of 157 million yuan, up 662.33%, ending two consecutive years of profit decline [5]. - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas market revenue, which grew 3.82 times over the past three years, with the revenue share rising from 16.13% to 65.8% [6]. Research and Development - Daoshi Technology has invested over 1.228 billion yuan in R&D from 2020 to 2024, resulting in accelerated technology transformation [6]. - As of the end of 2024, the company holds 64 patents in carbon materials, 222 in lithium battery materials, and 104 in ceramic materials [6].

Industry Overview - The Congolese Strategic Mineral Market Regulatory Authority (ARECOMS) announced on June 21 that it will extend the cobalt export ban for three months due to sufficient cobalt inventory in the market [1][23] - The decision will apply to all sources of cobalt ore in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) [23] Price Movement - Since the cobalt export ban was implemented in February, cobalt prices have rebounded significantly from historical lows [2][6] - As of June 20, prices for MB cobalt, cobalt intermediates, and domestic metal cobalt were reported at $15 per pound, $11.2 per pound, and 224,000 yuan per ton, reflecting increases of 58%, 91%, and 47% respectively since February 24 [2][7] - The extension of the export ban is expected to further reduce domestic cobalt inventory and potentially lead to a second round of price increases [2][23] Supply Dynamics - The DRC is the world's largest cobalt resource country, with 2024 reserves accounting for 55% and production for 76% of global totals [2][8] - The DRC's export ban has significantly impacted global supply, and the country is expected to maintain its dominant position in the cobalt market [8] - Despite high growth in Indonesian nickel-cobalt production, it is insufficient to offset the supply contraction caused by the DRC's export ban [13] Demand Factors - The main consumer of cobalt is the power battery sector, which accounted for 47% of global cobalt demand in 2024 [26] - However, downstream demand remains weak, with production rates for key materials showing mixed results [26] Strategic Intent - The DRC's export ban aims to boost cobalt prices and prevent low-cost outflows of strategic resources, while also enhancing the country's international influence [3][32] - The government is likely to continue seeking measures to control cobalt exports to secure long-term strategic benefits [32][33]

【DT新材料】 获悉，4月23日， 道氏技术 发布公告，2025年第一季度，公司实现营业收入为17.58亿元，同比下降12.17%；归母净利润为4273.36万 元，同比大幅上升206.86%；扣非归母净利润为3576.83万元，同比大幅上升266.60%。 受全球新能源材料市场竞争加剧及下游需求阶段性波动影响。尽管公司 三元前驱体和阴极铜 出货量同比增长（三元前驱体出口1.8万吨，+137%）， 但产品价格受行业供需格局调整承压，导致收入规模收缩58。受益于 金属铜市场价格高位运行 （刚果子公司阴极铜产量19,674吨，+61%）及存货跌 价准备减少，叠加规模化生产摊薄成本，推动毛利率显著改善，支撑净利润高增。 | | 本报告期 | 上年同期 | 本报告期比上年同期增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(元) | 1,758.117,781.59 | 2.001.701.468.85 | -12.17% | | 归属于上市公司股东的净利 | 43.733.567.84 | 14,252,078.70 | 206.86% | | 润(元) | | | | | 归属于上市公司 ...