Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on copper, aluminum, and precious metals, indicating a high level of market activity and potential for growth in these sectors [13][16]. Core Insights - Copper prices have surged due to unexpected production cuts, leading to significant supply shortages and rapid price increases [13]. - Aluminum is showing signs of recovery with inventory levels decreasing and downstream processing rates improving, suggesting a potential for sustained high profitability [15]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to rise further due to market anticipation of continuous interest rate cuts [16]. Summary by Sections Copper - This week, LME copper price increased by 2.09% to $10,205.00 per ton, while Shanghai copper rose by 3.20% to 82,500 yuan per ton [14]. - Supply side: The import copper concentrate processing fee index rose to -$40.36 per ton; national copper inventory decreased by 4,400 tons to 140,100 tons [14]. - Consumption side: Brass rod enterprises' operating rate was 48.49%, showing a slight increase of 0.71 percentage points [14]. Aluminum - This week, LME aluminum price decreased by 1.01% to $2,649.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum fell by 0.24% to 20,700 yuan per ton [15]. - Supply side: Electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas dropped by 21,000 tons to 617,000 tons [15]. - Demand side: Downstream processing enterprises' operating rate increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0%, driven by pre-holiday stocking [15]. Precious Metals - This week, COMEX gold price rose by 0.23% to $3,789.80 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings increasing by 5.15 tons to 1,005.72 tons [16]. - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to U.S. tariffs and escalating geopolitical risks, contributing to a volatile trading environment [16]. Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased, while the export volume of magnetic materials saw significant growth [32]. - Domestic rare earth separation enterprises are preparing for production halts, indicating potential supply constraints [32]. Antimony - Antimony ingot price is at 174,900 yuan per ton, showing a decrease of 2.26% [33]. - The demand for antimony is expected to recover as the photovoltaic glass market stabilizes [33]. Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate price is 4,450 yuan per ton, with a slight decrease of 0.45% [34]. - The demand for molybdenum is expected to rise as major steel mills resume procurement [34]. Tin - Tin ingot price increased by 1.74% to 273,700 yuan per ton, with inventory decreasing by 6.14% [35]. - The supply-demand dynamics are favorable, supported by strong inventory levels and demand from the semiconductor sector [35].

Group 1 - The cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo has led to significant impacts on the global cobalt market, with major producers suspending quotes and some halting production due to raw material shortages [1] - If the cobalt export ban is extended, a substantial increase in cobalt prices is expected in the short term [1] - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Hanrui Cobalt are adopting strategies to manage market changes, focusing on resource release and controlling order intake [1] Group 2 - XINWANDA's wholly-owned subsidiary, Qianhai Hongsheng, plans to establish a private equity fund in collaboration with several investment institutions, with a total subscription amount of 30 million yuan, focusing on commercial energy storage projects in China [2] - This investment reflects the company's strategic positioning in the new energy sector and is expected to provide new growth opportunities and investment returns [2] Group 3 - Fengshan Group's collaboration with Tsinghua University on a technology development contract is primarily for research purposes, with significant uncertainty regarding the commercialization of results [3] - The contract does not impact the company's main business, and the current revenue from its sodium-ion and lithium-ion battery electrolyte products is limited due to intense market competition [3] - The company is cautiously expanding into the new energy sector while maintaining focus on its traditional business, with limited contributions from the new energy segment [3]

Group 1 - The cobalt export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo has led to significant impacts on the global cobalt market, with major producers suspending quotes and some halting production due to raw material shortages [1] - If the cobalt export ban is extended, a substantial increase in cobalt prices is expected in the short term [1] - Companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Hanrui Cobalt are adopting strategies to manage market changes, focusing on resource release and controlling order intake [1] Group 2 - Xiwanda's wholly-owned subsidiary, Qianhai Hongsheng, plans to establish a private equity fund in collaboration with several investment institutions, with a total subscription amount of 30 million yuan, focusing on commercial energy storage projects in China [2] - This investment reflects the company's strategic positioning in the new energy sector, potentially providing new growth opportunities and investment returns [2] Group 3 - Fengshan Group has signed a technology development contract with Tsinghua University, but the development is highly uncertain and unlikely to significantly impact the company's main business or 2025 performance [3] - The company is currently focused on traditional business areas while cautiously exploring the new energy sector, facing intense competition in the market [3]

近期钴原料价格继续上行，高价钴中间品的压力下，钴冶炼厂仅按需采购，部分企业转而选用钴盐替 代，钴盐现货资源相对紧张。 中信建投（601066）证券指出，刚果(金)政府自6月22日起延长3个月出口禁令，至今市场钴原料已显著 消化，7月我国进口钴湿法冶炼中间品量1.38万吨，预计后续月份继续下降，冶炼厂原料库存进一步压 降。刚果(金)禁令三个月延长期即将到期，后续或调整政策，继续延长或配额出口，钴供给问题进一步 强化，消费旺季下需求相对较好，供给紧张，价格有望保持强势。 ...

碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：碳酸锂主力合约9月15日价格小幅回落至71160元/吨，跌 幅约2.4%；基差走弱至1140元/吨，现货市场跌幅大于期货，市场对远期供 需平衡的预期有所松动。 持仓与成交：主力合约持仓量从35.1万手降至30.9万手，降幅12%，成交量 从59.2万手收缩至41.1万手。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端：国内碳酸锂产能利用率维持在66.41%的稳定水平，供给端尚未见 明显调整。宁德时代枧下窝锂矿复产推进但11月前影响有限，当前供给主 力仍依赖锂辉石路线，而锂云母路线占比降至15%。 需求端：下游正极材料价格总体持稳，三元材料微涨0.08%至119450元/ 吨，铁锂价格持平；三元电芯价格普遍上涨0.4%-2.5%。但需求增速边际放 缓，9月前两周新能源车零售量同比下降3%，尽管批发量同比增长5%，旺季 备库需求兑现存在不确定性。 库存与仓单：碳酸锂社会库存连续两周下降，从14.0万吨降至13.9万吨， 降幅1.1%，部分反映节前备货启动。 市场小结 计价复产探底回升，碳酸锂或能再接反内卷东风 一、日度市场总结 短期碳酸锂市场或维持低位震荡。供给端在锂辉石路线主导下 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Cobalt Sector Industry Overview - The cobalt sector is currently experiencing a price increase trend, supported by Glencore's backing of the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) quota system to enhance cobalt prices, with a significant policy announcement expected on September 22, 2025 [1][2] - Cobalt intermediate prices have seen a slight increase since June 22, 2025, from $13 per pound to $13.7 per pound, but the price rise is limited due to high industry inventory levels [3] Key Points and Arguments - Glencore has ceased external sales of cobalt intermediates to control supply and drive prices up, indicating a potential favorable policy outcome for prices [2] - The DRC's extended export ban could prolong transportation cycles, potentially leading to a supply chain disruption if exports do not resume by late October or November 2025 [6] - Current domestic inventory levels are precarious, with an estimated 40,000 to 50,000 tons remaining by the end of 2025, concentrated in a few major companies [5][6] - The cobalt price trend for 2025 is optimistic, with companies like Huayou, Tengyuan, and Hanrui expected to perform well, particularly after the policy announcement [10] Company Performance - Huayou and Tengyuan are highlighted as reliable investments due to their strong earnings potential, with Huayou benefiting from its Indonesian MHP project [10][13] - Luoyang Molybdenum (Luomoly) is viewed as less favorable for cobalt investments compared to Huayou, Tengyuan, and Hanrui, as its price increase has been limited [11] - Rio Tinto Resources, listed in Hong Kong, achieved a profit of 1.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 despite low nickel prices, with an expected annual profit of 3 billion yuan, making it an attractive investment due to its low valuation [12] Additional Insights - The lack of significant price increases in cobalt is attributed to the absence of public news stimuli, despite expectations of an extended export ban [9] - The market is advised to closely monitor Glencore's sales policies as they will significantly influence price movements [7][8] - The overall recommendation is to invest in Huayou, Tengyuan, and Hanrui, while also considering Rio Tinto Resources for its low valuation and potential growth [13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term lithium carbonate futures may continue the volatile and weak pattern, with market focus on the开工 dynamics of lithium mines and salt plants in Jiangxi. The futures rebound space is limited by the rapid convergence of the basis. Potential variables include whether CATL's suspension triggers other salt plants to passively support prices and the marginal support of nickel - cobalt salt price increases on ternary material costs [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Lithium Carbonate Futures Market Data Changes** - On September 4, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 73,420 yuan/ton, up 2.14% from the previous trading day. The basis narrowed significantly from 3,620 yuan/ton on September 3 to 1,280 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest increased to 353,600 lots, and trading volume soared to 712,200 lots, indicating increased market activity [2] 2. Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side** - The proportion of lithium carbonate output from the spodumene smelting end has exceeded 60%, while that of lepidolite has dropped to 15%. Although the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained stable at 66.41% in September, the suspension of CATL's Yichun mining area may intensify local supply disturbances, and the resumption rhythm of salt plants needs attention [3] - **Demand Side** - The downstream shows the characteristic of "weak peak season". In August, the retail penetration rate of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 55.3%, but the cost pressure of power batteries was transmitted to the mid - and upstream. The transaction price of lithium iron phosphate battery cells fell to 0.324 yuan/Wh, and the price of ternary materials also declined continuously. The demand for electrolyte and anode materials was boosted by the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking, but over - capacity restricted the price increase space [3] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts** - The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 141,100 tons, but the absolute value was still at a high level, and the de - stocking speed was slow [3] 3. Market Price Monitoring - On September 4, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 73,420 yuan/ton, up 2.14% from the previous day. The basis narrowed from 3,620 yuan/ton on September 3 to 1,280 yuan/ton. The battery - grade lithium carbonate market price was 74,700 yuan/ton, down 1.06% from the previous day. The price of power - type ternary materials decreased by 0.08% to 118,700 yuan/ton, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.63% to 33,995 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained at 66.41%, and the inventory decreased by 0.29% to 141,136 tons [6] 4. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotes** - On September 4, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 74,869 yuan/ton, down 886 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 73,400 - 76,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 75,000 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton. The industrial - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 72,000 - 73,400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 72,700 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan/ton. In September, the market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with demand growing faster, and there will be a stage of tight supply [7] - **Downstream Consumption** - According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association on September 3, from August 1 - 31, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market were 1.079 million, a year - on - year increase of 5% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 55.3%, and the cumulative retail sales this year were 7.535 million, a year - on - year increase of 25%. The wholesale of new - energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers was 1.292 million, a year - on - year increase of 23% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. The wholesale penetration rate of new - energy manufacturers was 53.6%, and the cumulative wholesale this year was 8.926 million, a year - on - year increase of 33% [8] - **Industry News** - From August 21 - 28, the spot price of cobalt intermediates continued to rise. Affected by the Congo (Kinshasa) extension policy, China's cobalt intermediates will face raw material shortages in the future, and prices have upward momentum. Since August 10, CATL's Yichun mining area in Jiangxi has been shut down, and the "butterfly effect" has spread throughout the industry chain [9][10][11]

Summary of Cobalt Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The cobalt industry is significantly impacted by the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) export ban, which affects China's cobalt intermediate imports, as 98%-99% of China's primary cobalt is sourced from DRC [2][4][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Cobalt Price Fluctuations**: The first export ban led to a doubling of cobalt intermediate prices, while the second ban saw a smaller increase of approximately 8.5%, indicating market expectations and inventory levels' influence [2][6]. - **Electrolytic Cobalt Profitability**: Electrolytic cobalt transitioned from positive to negative profitability due to high inventory levels and overcapacity, leading to forced destocking [2][8][11]. - **Sulfuric Cobalt Market**: Sulfuric cobalt briefly achieved profitability in March 2025 but fell back into losses due to supply and demand pressures, including weak demand from ternary battery precursors [9][12]. - **Chloride Cobalt and Ternary Oxide**: These products maintained relatively stable profits due to a make-to-order production model, benefiting from consumer subsidies, although profits are expected to decline due to raw material shortages [10][12]. - **Future Trends**: The cobalt industry is expected to face shortages by the end of August 2025, with prices projected to rise slowly until November [4][32]. Additional Important Insights - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: The cobalt supply chain is shifting towards resource acquisition capabilities and order binding, with a focus on reducing production costs due to profit compression across production stages [4][18]. - **Global Supply Balance**: The global cobalt supply may face an oversupply situation, but DRC's export restrictions create regional supply-demand imbalances [17][20]. - **Inventory Levels**: Current inventory levels vary significantly across different market participants, with electrolytic cobalt social inventory estimated to be around 8 months [15][14]. - **Impact of Price Increases**: Price increases in cobalt significantly affect demand for downstream products, particularly when prices reach around $26-$27 per pound, leading to reduced purchasing from manufacturers [25][32]. - **Future of Cobalt Recycling**: Domestic cobalt recycling is currently limited, contributing about 1,000 tons per month, with potential increases expected as raw material costs rise [24][29]. Conclusion The cobalt industry is navigating a complex landscape shaped by export bans, fluctuating prices, and shifting supply dynamics. The anticipated shortages and price increases in the coming months highlight the need for strategic adjustments within the industry to adapt to these changes.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of lithium carbonate futures has soared due to supply disruptions and market sentiment, but the fundamental contradictions have not been substantially reversed. The actual reduction from the Jiangxi mine shutdown may be partially offset by import increases. The downstream purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and the weak trading reflects the limited acceptance of high prices in the industry chain. The continuous accumulation of social inventory and warehouse receipts suppresses the rebound momentum of spot prices. It is expected that the price will enter a high - level oscillation range in the next 1 - 2 weeks, but there is a risk of a callback after the sentiment fades [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Futures Market Data Changes**: On August 11, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract rose to 81,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.25% from August 8. Affected by the news of the lithium mine shutdown over the weekend, all contracts were at the daily limit. The basis weakened significantly from - 5,710 yuan/ton to - 8,800 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest decreased slightly by 0.94% to 317,600 lots, and the trading volume dropped sharply by 95.75% to 38,000 lots, indicating a highly consistent bullish sentiment in the market [1]. - **Supply and Demand in the Industrial Chain and Inventory Changes**: On the supply side, the Jiangxi Jianxiawo mining area stopped production on August 9 due to the expiration of the mining license, restricting the supply of lithium mica. However, the lithium extraction capacity from spodumene remained high, and there was potential supply elasticity from overseas mines in Africa and South America, resulting in a differentiated supply pressure in China. Lithium salt plants could make up for short - term shortages through inventory or imported ores. On the demand side, downstream demand showed differentiation. In July, the retail volume of new energy vehicles decreased by 10% month - on - month, but the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate materials rebounded to 32,850 yuan/ton, supported by the stocking demand of energy storage and some battery factories. The price of ternary materials remained stable, indicating that the demand for vehicle - used power batteries had not significantly increased. As of August 7, the social inventory increased to 142,400 tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory soared to 18,800 tons, indicating a loose supply in the spot circulation link and strong delivery intention, which suppressed the upward space of near - month contracts [2]. - **Market Summary**: The short - term price of lithium carbonate futures has rapidly risen due to supply disruptions and sentiment, but the fundamental contradictions have not been resolved. The actual reduction from the Jiangxi mine shutdown may be partially offset by imports. Downstream purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and the light trading reflects limited acceptance of high prices. The continuous accumulation of inventory suppresses the rebound of spot prices. It is expected that the price will oscillate at a high level in the next 1 - 2 weeks, but there is a risk of a callback after the sentiment fades [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Price Changes**: From August 8 to August 11, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased from 76,960 yuan/ton to 81,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 5.25%. The basis weakened from - 5,710 yuan/ton to - 8,800 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 0.94% to 317,676 lots, and the trading volume dropped by 95.75% to 38,071 lots. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.33% to 72,200 yuan/ton, the market price of spodumene concentrate rose by 12.5% to 900 yuan/ton, and the market price of lithium mica concentrate increased by 8.33% to 975 yuan/ton. From August 1 to August 8, the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained at 63.92%, and the lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.49% to 142,418 tons [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Spot Market Quotations**: On August 11, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price rose to 74,567 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased to 74,500 yuan/ton. The suspension of mining in the Jiangxi Jianxiawo area affected the output of lithium mica and related lithium carbonate, causing the lithium carbonate futures to open at the daily limit. However, the increase in spodumene - based lithium carbonate and the use of inventory or zero - order purchases by related lithium salt plants could prevent a significant shortage in the spot market. Both upstream and downstream parties were cautious, and market trading was light [6]. - **Downstream Consumption**: According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association, from July 1 - 31, the retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 1.003 million, a 14% year - on - year increase but a 10% month - on - month decrease. The wholesale volume was 1.179 million, a 25% year - on - year increase but a 4% month - on - month decrease [7]. - **Industry News**: From late July to the end of the month, the price of cobalt intermediate products continued to rise. On the supply side, major mining companies suspended public quotations, and some traders reduced inventory and controlled shipments. On the demand side, the price increase of cobalt smelting products was slower than that of cobalt intermediate products, leading to cost inversion for smelting plants. Some smelting enterprises with low inventory planned to substitute raw materials or reduce production. Affected by the delay policy in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the supply of cobalt intermediate products in China may be short, and prices may rise, but the impact on downstream demand needs attention [8][9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The cobalt market is entering a supply-driven price uptrend due to the ongoing export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and limited incremental supply from Indonesia's MHP [1][4]. Supply - Cobalt reserves are primarily concentrated in the DRC, with major producers including Luoyang Molybdenum and Glencore. The DRC's export ban, first announced in February 2025 and extended in June, aims to manage inventory and support previously low cobalt prices [2]. - Indonesia's MHP production capacity is expected to ramp up significantly, with an estimated cobalt output of 28,000 tons in 2024, accounting for 9.7% of global production. However, this increase may not sufficiently offset the supply reduction from the DRC [2]. Demand - Global cobalt consumption is projected to reach 222,000 tons in 2024, with electric vehicles (43%) and consumer electronics (30%) being the primary demand drivers. Domestic cobalt consumption is estimated at 123,000 tons, with consumer electronics also representing about 43% [3]. - The demand for cobalt in electric vehicle batteries is expected to remain strong, despite some market share pressure from lithium iron phosphate batteries. The shift in NCM materials towards higher nickel content is anticipated to boost cobalt demand [3]. - In the consumer electronics sector, the demand for lithium cobalt oxide, a key component in lithium-ion batteries, is expected to rise due to advancements in AI technology and increased consumer demand for higher battery capacities [3]. Price Outlook - Following the DRC's export ban, China's imports of cobalt intermediate products saw a significant decline of 61.6% in June, indicating a real supply shortage. This trend is expected to continue, with imports remaining low and MHP production not compensating for the reduction [4]. - As of July 25, domestic electrolytic cobalt inventory was reported at 13,111 tons, a 300% year-on-year increase. However, the reduction in imports is likely to accelerate inventory depletion [4].