Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the lithium and cobalt sectors, indicating clear investment value and suggesting active positioning in these areas [8][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that supply disruptions, particularly from Zimbabwe, have intensified expectations for supply contraction, leading to a significant rebound in lithium prices post-holiday. The lithium price is expected to continue rising in the second quarter due to ongoing demand in the energy storage sector and supply-side disturbances [4][12][13]. - Cobalt prices are supported by raw material costs, with insufficient arrival volumes at ports, indicating limited downward space in the short term [4][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Supply Disruptions Trigger Lithium Price Rebound - The lithium sector is experiencing price acceleration due to supply disturbances and post-holiday replenishment. Futures contracts have seen significant weekly increases, with the Wuxi contract rising 16.95% to 174,600 CNY/ton and the Guangzhou contract increasing 15.33% to 176,000 CNY/ton. Lithium concentrate prices have also surged, with a reported increase of 372 USD/ton to 2,372 USD/ton [8][12][13]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - Zimbabwe has announced an immediate suspension of all raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports, aiming to strengthen mineral regulation and accountability. This move is expected to compress the available supply from Africa, increasing uncertainty and risk premiums in the raw material sector [16]. - Core Lithium has agreed to sell its lithium spodumene inventory to Glencore, which is expected to provide significant momentum for potential resumption of production [16]. 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials: Mixed Production Changes and Price Increases - In January, domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 5% month-on-month, while hydroxide production decreased by 4%. The report indicates a structural adjustment in inventory levels [17][18]. - The report notes that cobalt production in January saw a month-on-month decline of 5% for sulfate and 8% for chloride, while year-on-year increases were recorded at 13% and 32%, respectively [20][29]. 4. Lithium Salt Import and Export Data - In December, lithium carbonate imports rose by 9% month-on-month, while hydroxide exports surged by 88%. This reflects a strong demand and supply dynamic in the lithium market [34][40]. 5. Price Trends in New Energy Metals - The average weekly price for battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 18.35%, while industrial-grade prices rose by 18.83%. The average price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide also saw a significant increase of 15.35% [63][64].

有色金属 2026 年 2 月 26 日 氧化镨钕价格已至 85 万元/吨，近一个月涨 26%、近三个月涨 56% ——金属新材料高频数据周报（20260209-20260215） 要点 军工新材料：电解钴价格上涨。（1）本周电解钴价格 42.30 万元/吨，环比 +0.7%。本周电解钴和钴粉价格比值 0.74 ，环比+0.7%；电解钴和硫酸钴价 格比值为 4.31 ，环比+0.7%。（2）碳纤维本周价格 83.8 元/千克，环比 +0%。毛利-9.19 元/千克。 新能源车新材料：氢氧化锂价格上涨。（1）本周碳酸锂和氢氧化锂价格分别 为 14.38 、13.76 万元/吨，环比+6.9%、+3.9%。（2）本周硫酸钴价格 9.53 万元/吨，环比+0%。（3）本周磷酸铁锂、523 型正极材料价格分别为 5.24 、18.73 万元/吨，环比+0%、+4.1%。（4）本周氧化镨钕价格 849.82 元/公斤，环比+12.2%。 光伏新材料：价格持平。（1）本周光伏级多晶硅价格 6.19 美元/千克，环比 +0%。（2）本周 EVA 价格 9,650 元/吨，环比+0%，处于 2013 年来较低位 置。（3）本 ...

[Table_Title] Nickel Industries 2025Q4 RKEF 项目 NPI 产量环比 增长 1%至 3.16 万吨 证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 2 月 24 日 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► RKEF（火法冶炼）项目（公司持有 80% 的间接权益） 2025Q4 镍生铁（NPI）产量总计为 31,561 吨（100%基 础，下同），环比增长 1%，同比减少 4%。 2025Q4 NPI 销量总计 31,429 吨，环比增长 3%，同比减少 2%。 2025Q4 NPI 合同价格为 11,100 美元/吨，环比几乎持平， 同比下跌 7%。 2025Q4 NPI 销售收入为 3.503 亿美元，环比增长 2%，同 比减少 7%。 2025Q4 NPI 单位现金成本为 10,088 美元/吨，环比上涨 2%，同比下跌 5%。 2025Q4 NPI 调整后的 EBITDA 为 3500 万美元，环比减少 13%。 2025Q4 NPI 调整后单位销量的 EBITDA 为 1,114 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [8] Core Viewpoints - The energy metals market has seen a slight rebound in prices due to a recovery in other non-ferrous markets, although overall trading activity has slowed ahead of the holiday [4] - The lithium price is expected to shift from "short-term fluctuations" to "upward opportunities" before the second quarter [4] - The cobalt sector is supported by tight raw material costs, limiting overall downward space, and is expected to maintain a range-bound consolidation in the short term [4] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Judgment: Pre-holiday Trading Slows, Cobalt and Lithium Supported by Others - Lithium and cobalt core targets have clear investment value, suggesting active positioning [12] - The lithium sector's fundamentals have eased, with a cooling spot market before the holiday, but there is potential for an upward trend in the second quarter [12] - The price of lithium concentrate is reported at $2,000 per ton, up $120 from the previous week [12] 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - North American battery factories are shifting towards AI-related energy storage systems due to declining electric vehicle sales [16] - Tianhua New Energy forecasts a net profit decline of 47.83% to 56.23% for 2025, primarily due to structural imbalances in supply and falling prices of lithium hydroxide [16] 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials: Production Changes and Price Movements - In January, domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 5% month-on-month, while hydroxide production decreased by 4% [17] - The weekly average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 6.04% [61] - The average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 6.28% [61]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal industry index decreased by 5.42% over the past two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 28th among 31 Shenwan first-level industries [1] - Precious metals, energy metals, minor metals, industrial metals, and new metal materials all experienced varying degrees of decline, with energy metals dropping the most at 11.47% [1] Group 2 - As of February 6, COMEX gold closed at $4,988.60 per ounce, showing a slight increase of 0.11% over the past two weeks, while COMEX silver fell by 24.92% to $77.53 per ounce [2] - LME copper settled at $12,840.00 per ton, down 0.62%, and domestic copper averaged 99,560 yuan per ton, down 1.68% [2] - The price of black tungsten concentrate increased by 25.09% to 673,000 yuan per ton, while lithium carbonate dropped by 21.35% to 134,500 yuan per ton [2] Group 3 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange is seeking public opinion on the revision of lead futures contract rules, proposing to include recycled lead ingots as alternative delivery products, aligning with the green and low-carbon transition of the non-ferrous metal industry [3] - The new national standard for recycled lead will be implemented on March 1, 2026, enhancing risk management capabilities and promoting the development of a circular economy in the industry [3]

Core Insights - The cobalt industry is expected to experience a significant price increase due to geopolitical factors and supply constraints, with prices likely reaching new highs by 2026 [2][4][10] - The Congo (DRC) quota system is driving the global cobalt market's pricing power, with supply constraints becoming more influential than simple supply-demand dynamics [4][6][10] Group 1: Overall Industry Outlook - The year 2025 marks a critical turning point for the cobalt industry, transitioning from a supply surplus to a structural shortage, which is expected to continue into 2026 [10][11] - The global cobalt supply is highly concentrated, with the DRC accounting for approximately 76% of global production, making the market sensitive to geopolitical and policy changes [41][50] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The DRC's export quota for cobalt is set at 96,600 metric tons annually for 2026-2027, a 55% reduction from 2024 levels, leading to a structural supply gap of 91,000 and 112,000 metric tons in 2026 and 2027, respectively [6][10] - The supply of cobalt from artisanal mining is expected to remain limited due to government control and quota restrictions, impacting overall market supply [61] Group 3: Demand Projections - Battery applications dominate cobalt demand, accounting for 73% of total consumption, with electric vehicle batteries being the primary growth driver [4][19] - The demand for cobalt in the consumer electronics sector is also expected to recover, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5% over the next three years [4][19] Group 4: Price Outlook - The pricing mechanism for cobalt is shifting from a cost-based model to one driven by supply shortages and geopolitical risks, suggesting that cobalt prices will remain elevated in the long term [11][10] - Cobalt prices are projected to maintain high levels due to the structural supply-demand imbalance, with significant price increases observed following policy changes in the DRC [15][38] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Key investment targets include Huayou Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tengyuan Cobalt, and Greeenme, all of which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated price increases and supply constraints in the cobalt market [4][6]

本周碳酸锂产量环比下滑1.6%至2.37万吨。 【国盛有色】小金属周观点更新 锂：本周电碳跌13.2%至13.8万元/吨，电氢价格跌5.9%至15.1万元/吨；碳酸锂期货主连跌14.1%至13.2万元/吨。 库存方面，本周碳酸锂库存环减2.2%至10.7万吨。 锂：本周电碳跌13.2%至13.8万元/吨，电氢价格跌5.9%至15.1万元/吨；碳酸锂期货主连跌14.1%至13.2万元/吨。 本周碳酸锂产量环比下滑1.6%至2.37万吨。 库存方面，本周碳酸锂库存环减2.2%至10.7万吨。 供给端，本周锂盐产量环比下滑，延续去库。 临近春节，部分锂盐厂安排检修或放假，叠加2月份自然天数减少，对国内实际供应量有一定影响。 1月份智利出口至中国的碳酸锂达16950吨，环比增长44.82%，对国内形成供应补充。 需求端，锂价下跌过程中，下游逢低补库意愿积极，但随着春节假期临近，下游正极材料与电池厂的节前备货已 基本完成，排产预计环比下滑。 供给端，本周锂盐产量环比下滑，延续去库。 临近春节，部分锂盐厂安排检修或放假，叠加2月份自然 【国盛有色】小金属周观点更新 供给端，近期刚果（金）原料到港延迟致企业原料库存告急，叠 ...

Group 1: Copper - LME copper price decreased by 1.65% to $12,855.0 per ton, while Shanghai copper fell by 3.45% to ¥100,100 per ton [1][14] - Domestic copper inventory increased by 4.03% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 62,700 tons [1][14] - The operating rate of waste anode plate enterprises is expected to drop by 28.52% to 38.36% next week due to the upcoming Spring Festival [1][14] Group 2: Aluminum - LME aluminum price decreased by 3.49% to $3,026.00 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum fell by 5.07% to ¥23,300 per ton [2][15] - Domestic aluminum rod inventory increased by 15,000 tons week-on-week, reaching 258,500 tons [2][15] - The overall aluminum processing operating rate recorded 57.9%, a decrease of 1.5% week-on-week, indicating a significant divergence within the sector [2][15] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 6.57% to $4,988.6 per ounce, while the 10-year TIPS yield decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 1.88% [3][16] - SPDR gold holdings decreased by 10.87 tons to 1,076.23 tons, reflecting market dynamics influenced by geopolitical risks [3][16] - The U.S. Treasury yield curve reached its steepest level in nearly four years, indicating rising concerns over inflation and fiscal deficits [3][16] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide increased by 1.20% this week, with December exports of rare earth permanent magnets showing a year-on-year increase of 7% [4][35] - The expectation of more relaxed export policies is anticipated to boost future demand for rare earths [4][35] - Key companies to watch include China Rare Earth, Guangxi Rare Earth, and Northern Rare Earth [4][36] Group 5: Tungsten - Tungsten price increased by 11.98% this week, driven by tight supply conditions and increased strategic reserves in the U.S. [4][38] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" by U.S. lawmakers is expected to elevate tungsten's priority [4][38] - Recommended companies include China Tungsten High-Tech and Xiamen Tungsten [4][38] Group 6: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate decreased by 13.3% to ¥148,000 per ton, while lithium hydroxide fell by 11.6% to ¥150,000 per ton [4][53] - Total lithium carbonate production this week was 20,700 tons, reflecting a slight decrease [4][53] - Market sentiment remains cautious as downstream purchasing activity is expected to slow down as inventory levels stabilize [4][53] Group 7: Cobalt - Cobalt price decreased by 5.6% to ¥420,000 per ton, while cobalt intermediate prices remained stable [5][54] - The market for cobalt intermediates is characterized by limited transactions, with prices holding steady amid geopolitical supply concerns [5][54] - Long-term structural shortages in raw materials may support future price increases [5][54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry in China [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes a long-term perspective on the market, suggesting that despite short-term volatility in precious metals, the long-term bull market remains intact due to unresolved U.S. debt issues [7][12] - The zinc sector is highlighted as an overlooked material benefiting from the re-industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with expectations for price increases due to supply tightness [7][13] - The copper sector is viewed positively, with the gold-to-copper ratio reaching historical highs, indicating potential for copper price increases amid supply constraints [7][14] - For precious metals, investors are advised to wait for price stabilization before increasing positions, as significant price fluctuations have been observed recently [7][15] Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - The report discusses the dynamics of precious metals, noting significant price drops in gold and silver, with gold prices reaching $4,880 per ounce and silver prices at $85 per ounce during a recent week [7][12] - The zinc market is expected to benefit from increased demand driven by infrastructure projects in developing regions, with a noted decrease in zinc smelting fees indicating supply constraints [7][13] - The copper market is projected to maintain upward momentum due to a high gold-to-copper ratio and ongoing supply challenges from major mining companies [7][14] - The report suggests a cautious approach to precious metals, recommending that investors wait for market stabilization before making new investments [7][15] 2. Steel Industry - The steel industry is experiencing a weak fundamental outlook as it approaches the seasonal low around the Spring Festival, with a slight decrease in iron output and weakening demand for rebar [16][21] - Inventory levels show a divergence between social and steel mill stocks, with total steel inventory at 891 thousand tons, reflecting a 2.56% weekly increase [23] - Steel prices have generally declined, with the overall steel price index down by 0.20%, and specific products like cold-rolled steel experiencing a 0.44% decrease [35][36] 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in December 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 69.09%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [39] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with December 2025 production reaching 1.5858 million units, a 9.02% increase year-on-year [43] - Lithium prices have shown a notable decline, with the average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate at 159,500 yuan per ton, reflecting a 5.62% decrease [48][49]

Investment Ratings - The report indicates a positive outlook for copper and aluminum sectors, with expectations of stable production and demand recovery [2][3][13] Core Insights - Copper prices increased by 3.98% to $13,650.5 per ton on LME, while domestic prices rose by 2.31% to 103,700 CNY per ton. Supply constraints and stable production rates are noted, with a slight decrease in operating rates expected due to seasonal demand fluctuations [2][14] - Aluminum prices rose by 1.75% to $3,229.0 per ton on LME, with domestic prices at 24,600 CNY per ton. The report highlights a seasonal decline in production rates and a high operating rate in alumina plants, despite a slight increase in inventory levels [3][15] - Gold prices surged by 8.58% to $5,410.8 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and market volatility. The report emphasizes the impact of U.S. monetary policy on gold prices [4][16] - The rare earth sector shows a positive trend, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide increasing by 11.30%. The report anticipates a favorable demand outlook due to easing export restrictions [5][34] - Tungsten prices rose by 12.99%, supported by strategic stockpiling initiatives in the U.S. and increasing demand in military applications [5][36] Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper price increased by 3.98% to $13,650.5 per ton, with domestic prices at 103,700 CNY per ton. Supply constraints are evident, with a decrease in copper processing fees [2][14] - Operating rates for copper cable enterprises increased to 59.46%, indicating stable production driven by prior orders [2][14] Aluminum - LME aluminum price rose by 1.75% to $3,229.0 per ton, with domestic prices at 24,600 CNY per ton. The report notes a decrease in operating rates due to seasonal factors [3][15] - The overall aluminum processing rate recorded at 59.4%, reflecting a seasonal decline in demand [3][15] Precious Metals - Gold prices increased significantly due to geopolitical tensions, with COMEX gold price reaching $5,410.8 per ounce. The report discusses the implications of U.S. monetary policy on gold market dynamics [4][16] Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide rose by 11.30%, with expectations of increased demand due to favorable export conditions [5][34] - The report highlights the potential for price increases in the rare earth sector driven by supply constraints and demand recovery [5][34] Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased by 12.99%, supported by strategic stockpiling initiatives and military demand [5][36] - The report suggests that the tungsten sector may benefit from ongoing geopolitical tensions and increased defense spending [5][36]