2026 年钴供需展望 20260106 摘要 2025 年全球精炼钴供应量同比减少 11%至 22.8 万吨，但预计 2026 年将恢复至 23.9 万吨。需求方面，2025 年受益于 3C 产品和 AR 眼镜 的增长，需求量同比增长 9.4%至 24.2 万吨，预计 2026 年将达到 25.1 万吨，增速放缓。 2025 年中国精炼钴供应量同比减少 8.6%至 15.18 万吨，预计 2026 年将恢复正增长至 19.35 万吨。受益于银发经济和健康经济的推动， 2025 年中国市场对精炼钴的需求同比增长 20%至 19.3 万吨，预计 2026 年将达到 20.26 万吨。 刚果金出口管控政策导致 2025 年全球原料供应下降 31%，对中国市场 的影响包括湿法中间品进口大幅减少，MHP 进口增加，以及四氧化三钴 等产品进口明显下降，导致 2025 年度中国未锻轧钴进口同比增加 164.9%。 受刚果金出口限制及地缘政治风险影响，2025 年电钴产能受到严重制 约，部分厂商开工率低于 30%。中国电谷 2025 年表观消费同比增长约 10%至 1.7 万吨，预计 2026 年小幅上升至 1.8 万吨。 ...

近期，刚果（金）暂停所有手工开采的钴矿物的加工和销售活动的消息，给2025年上涨的钴价又添了一把火。 Wind数据显示，2025年12月31日，中国钴平均价达49万元/吨，较前一个交易日进一步上涨，并创下2022年下半年以来的新高。2025年以来，钴价涨幅已 经达到190%。 SMM钴高级分析师王照宇对时代财经表示，自2025年2月刚果（金）实施钴出口禁令以来，国内钴原料供应格局发生根本性逆转，由结构性过剩转为持续 性紧缺。其进一步分析指出，本轮涨价的根源在于供给侧的政策约束。刚果金2026~2027年每年9.66万吨出口配额已确定，相较于2024年约22万吨的产 量，降幅超过50%。 "这从根本上决定了未来两年全球钴市场将处于结构性短缺状态，但是随着回收比例的提升，这种短缺的状态也将不断得到缓解。"王照宇分析道。 此外，碳酸锂及硫酸价格在2025年以来也有较大涨幅，作为消费类电池正极材料的钴酸锂及用于锂电池三元前驱体材料生产的硫酸钴因而在成本驱动下强 势上涨，全年涨幅分别超150%、248%。 图源：钴、钴酸锂、硫酸钴价格走势 有电池厂商销售人员就对时代财经表示，2025年以来其所在公司的钴酸锂电池已经涨价 ...

证券日报网讯12月31日，天奇股份（002009）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司锂电池循环板块 再生利用业务专注于三元锂电池及磷酸铁锂电池再生利用，能够循环产出电池材料，已实现锂电池全元 素再生且生产全流程碳足迹可追溯。目前已建成投产10万吨废旧锂电池(5万吨三元及5万吨铁锂)处理规 模。主要产品包括硫酸钴、硫酸镍、硫酸锰、电池级碳酸锂、电池级磷酸铁等。主要产品价格提升对公 司该板块盈利情况有积极作用。 ...

Group 1 - The company has established the enhancement of recycled materials' proportion in its raw material structure as one of its strategic business goals [1] - The company is gradually increasing the procurement and use of battery waste and recycled materials containing nickel, cobalt, and lithium [1] - This year, the company's products such as cobalt sulfate and lithium carbonate have primarily utilized recycled materials for production [1] Group 2 - The company will balance the use of recycled materials and mineral materials based on the price advantages of different types of raw materials [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Insights - The phenomenon of gold, copper, aluminum, and iron equities lagging behind commodity prices is expected to change, with market expectations for mid-term price increases strengthening as commodity prices reach new highs [7][11]. - The gold sector is anticipated to benefit from rising commodity prices and inflation expectations due to a decline in non-farm employment, which has increased the likelihood of interest rate cuts [7][11]. - The copper sector is viewed positively due to the demand for traditional power grid upgrades, which is expected to support copper consumption and create a supply-demand imbalance favoring copper prices [12]. - The aluminum sector is expected to see price increases following the closure of the Mozal aluminum plant and the high copper-aluminum price ratio, which is likely to drive demand for aluminum as a substitute for copper [13]. - The steel sector is poised to benefit from the introduction of export license management for certain steel products, which may encourage a shift towards higher value-added product exports [14]. Summary by Sections Steel Market Overview - Supply and demand fundamentals are weak in the off-season, but steel profitability is showing signs of recovery [15]. - Iron output has slightly decreased, while steel demand has shown marginal improvement, with rebar consumption increasing by 2.73% week-on-week [20]. - Overall steel prices have seen a slight increase, with the rebar price rising to 3345 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.87% [33]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in November 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 84.78%, indicating strong supply growth in the new energy sector [37]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales of new energy passenger cars in October 2025 showing year-on-year growth of 19.94% and 18.65%, respectively [41]. Price Trends - The report notes a general increase in metal prices, with lithium and cobalt prices rising significantly, while nickel prices have shown mixed trends [46].

Group 1: Military Industry New Materials - The price of electrolytic cobalt this week is 406,000 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.5% week-on-week. The price ratio of electrolytic cobalt to cobalt powder is 0.78, down 1.0% [4] - The price of carbon fiber this week is 83.8 CNY/kg, with a gross profit margin of 9.61 CNY/kg [4] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Materials - The prices of electric carbon, industrial carbon, and battery-grade lithium hydroxide are 92,100 CNY/ton, 89,300 CNY/ton, and 82,200 CNY/ton, respectively, with changes of +0%, +0%, and -0.2% week-on-week. The price gap between electric carbon and industrial carbon is at its lowest since November 2024, indicating a potential weakening in lithium battery market conditions compared to the industrial sector [5] - The price of sulfuric cobalt this week is 90,200 CNY/ton, an increase of 1.86% [5] - The prices of lithium iron phosphate and 523-type cathode materials are 39,100 CNY/ton and 158,600 CNY/ton, with changes of +0% and +1.4% respectively [5] - The price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide is 578.74 CNY/kg, down 0.7% [5] Group 3: Photovoltaic New Materials - The price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon this week is 6.50 USD/kg, unchanged week-on-week [6] - The price of EVA is 9,800 CNY/ton, a decrease of 1.0%, reaching a low level not seen since 2013 [6] - The price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass coating is 24.0 CNY/square meter, unchanged [6] Group 4: Nuclear Power New Materials - The prices of zirconium oxychloride, sponge zirconium, hafnium oxide, zirconium silicate, and zircon sand are 13,750 CNY/ton, 145 CNY/kg, 9,000 CNY/kg, 13,450 CNY/ton, and 14,012.5 CNY/ton, respectively, all unchanged week-on-week [7] - The uranium price for November 2025 is 62.24 USD/pound, down 2.7% [7] Group 5: Consumer Electronics New Materials - The price of tetracobalt oxide is 347,300 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.73% [8] - The price of lithium cobalt oxide is 381.0 CNY/kg, unchanged [8] - The price of silicon carbide is 5,300.00 CNY/ton, down 1.9% [8] - The prices of high-purity gallium, crude indium, and refined indium are 1,805.00 CNY/kg, 2,475.00 CNY/kg, and 2,575.00 CNY/kg, with changes of +0%, +2.9%, and +2.8% respectively [9] - The price of germanium dioxide is 8,950 CNY/kg, unchanged [9] Group 6: Other Materials - The prices of platinum, rhodium, and iridium are 440.00 CNY/g, 2,085.00 CNY/g, and 1,100.00 CNY/g, with increases of 3.8%, 4.5%, and 0% respectively [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the non-ferrous metals sector [5] Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed trend in prices for various materials, with cobalt prices declining while sulfuric cobalt prices have increased. The lithium price has reached approximately 92,000 yuan per ton, indicating a strong market for lithium-related materials [4][23] - The report suggests focusing on companies with cost advantages and expansion potential in the lithium mining sector, such as Salt Lake Co., Zangge Mining, and Tianqi Lithium [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Military New Materials - Electrolytic cobalt price is 406,000 yuan per ton, down 0.5% week-on-week. The price ratio of electrolytic cobalt to cobalt powder is 0.78, down 1.0% [9][10] - Carbon fiber price remains stable at 83.8 yuan per kilogram, with a gross profit of -9.61 yuan per kilogram [21] New Energy Vehicle Materials - Sulfuric cobalt price is 90,200 yuan per ton, up 1.86% week-on-week. The price of lithium iron phosphate and 523-type cathode materials are 39,100 and 158,600 yuan per ton, respectively [23][36] - The production of new energy vehicles reached 1.88 million units in October 2025, with a penetration rate of 52.8%, up 3.39 percentage points [23][25] Photovoltaic New Materials - EVA price is 9,800 yuan per ton, down 1.0%, while the price of photovoltaic-grade polysilicon is stable at 6.50 USD per kilogram [2] Other Materials - Platinum price increased by 3.8% to 440 yuan per gram, while rhodium and iridium prices also saw slight increases [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price trends in various materials to gauge industry health and investment opportunities [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the wind power, hydrogen, and energy storage sectors, driven by government policies and market demand [1][5][18]. Core Insights - The central economic work conference has prioritized "dual carbon" initiatives and comprehensive green transformation as key tasks for the upcoming year, emphasizing energy supply and consumption decarbonization [1][5]. - Investment opportunities during the 15th Five-Year Plan are expected to focus on three main areas: wind power, green hydrogen and ammonia, and energy storage [1][5]. - The European wind power market is anticipated to see sustained demand due to legislative reforms and infrastructure investments [1][6]. Summary by Sections Wind Power - The EU's new grid plan aims to improve wind project access and enhance certainty for offshore projects, with a significant demand expected in Europe [1][6]. - Recommendations include focusing on companies involved in offshore capabilities, such as pile foundations, components, and wind turbines [1][6][7]. Lithium Battery - Tianji Co. and Tianci Materials have postponed their 6F project timelines, indicating cautious supply expansion [8][10]. - The lithium battery supply chain remains optimistic about price stability and demand recovery [8][10]. Photovoltaics & Energy Storage - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a "de-involution" phase, with a focus on cost control and supply-side adjustments to restore profitability [14][15]. - The establishment of a polysilicon capacity integration platform is seen as a critical step towards addressing industry competition issues [15][16]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - Hydrogen is positioned as a key carrier for non-electric decarbonization, with increasing policy support and market demand expected [18][19]. - The green methanol market is projected to grow significantly, driven by global demand and regulatory changes [18][19]. Electric Grid - The approval of a major ultra-high voltage project in Zhejiang is expected to enhance profit elasticity for related companies [3][23]. - The North American AI power shortage is driving demand for high-efficiency electrical equipment, benefiting leading power equipment exporters [22][23]. AIDC and Liquid Cooling - Taiwanese liquid cooling companies reported significant revenue growth, indicating a rising demand for liquid cooling solutions in AI applications [24][26]. - The acquisition activities in the liquid cooling sector are expected to enhance competitive positioning for domestic companies in the global market [26][27]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in wind power include Goldwind Technology, Yunda Co., and Mingyang Smart Energy [28]. - In the photovoltaic sector, key players include Sungrow Power, Xinyi Solar, and LONGi Green Energy [28]. - For energy storage, companies like Sungrow Power and Aiko Solar are highlighted [28]. - In the hydrogen sector, recommended firms include Furuite and Huadian Science and Technology [28].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - Short-term lithium prices are expected to remain volatile, with a positive outlook on antimony, cobalt, tungsten, and tin due to a reassessment of strategic metal values [1][2][7] - Supply concerns in the nickel market are supported by the lack of new approvals from Indonesia's RKAB, which may lead to price stabilization [1][28] - The cobalt market is expected to see continued price increases due to structural supply tightness, with Congo's export regulations impacting availability [2][5][16] - Antimony prices are anticipated to converge towards higher overseas prices due to export controls and tight domestic supply [6][17] - The lithium market is experiencing a strong demand backdrop, with expectations of continued inventory depletion supporting prices [7][17] - The rare earth market is tightening due to Vietnam's export ban, which is expected to support prices [9][18] - Tin prices are supported by ongoing supply concerns from overseas sources, particularly from Myanmar and Congo [11][20] - Tungsten prices are expected to remain supported due to supply constraints and regulatory controls [12][21] - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, which is likely to support prices amid geopolitical uncertainties [14][22] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Nickel prices are under pressure due to stable demand but cautious purchasing from smelters, with LME nickel closing at $14,420 per ton, down 2.04% [1][28] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise further, with Congo's export regulations causing supply constraints [2][5][16] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are lower compared to international prices, but supply tightness is expected to support future price increases [6][17] Lithium Industry Update - Lithium carbonate prices have increased, with a strong demand outlook from the electric vehicle sector [7][17] Rare Earth Industry Update - Vietnam's recent export ban on rare earths is expected to tighten global supply and support prices [9][18] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices are supported by supply concerns from Myanmar and Congo, with LME tin prices rising to $41,905 per ton [11][20] Tungsten Industry Update - Tungsten prices are expected to remain high due to supply constraints and regulatory measures [12][21] Uranium Industry Update - The uranium market is facing supply tightness, with prices supported by geopolitical factors and production delays [14][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [2][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the metal prices are expected to continue rising due to the resonance of domestic and foreign fiscal and monetary policies, with a focus on the upcoming economic growth under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [8][21]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand in the lithium battery sector and the ongoing supply constraints in cobalt, indicating a bullish outlook for energy metals [8][83]. Summary by Sections Industry and Stock Performance - The report notes a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.34% and a 1.10% drop in the SW Nonferrous Index during the week [8]. - Key stocks in the nonferrous metal sector showed varied performance, with significant recommendations for companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [2][11]. Base Metals - Aluminum prices decreased by 0.88% to $2875 per ton, while copper prices fell by 0.96% to $11552.5 per ton, with zinc prices increasing by 1.31% to $3139 per ton [12][21]. - The report indicates that the domestic aluminum production capacity is stable at 44.39 million tons, with a slight increase in operational capacity due to high profits [21][23]. Precious Metals - Gold prices increased by 2.42% to $4329.80 per ounce, and silver prices rose by 5.59% to $62.09 per ounce, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [12][68]. - The report suggests a bullish outlook for gold and silver prices, supported by central bank purchases and weakening dollar credit [68][69]. Energy Metals - The lithium market is experiencing stable growth in supply, while demand from the energy storage sector continues to rise, leading to a positive outlook for lithium prices [8][83]. - Cobalt supply remains tight, with the Congo's cobalt export quotas expected to impact the market dynamics positively [8][83]. Other Minor Metals - The report discusses the fluctuations in prices for minor metals, including molybdenum and tungsten, with significant price increases noted for tungsten [15][83]. - The overall sentiment in the minor metals market remains cautious, with a focus on supply-demand dynamics and policy changes [55][85].