| 碳酸锂日评20251127:逢高法空 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期(日) 2025-11-26 近两周走势 | | 2025-11-25 | 2025-11-19 | 较昨日变化 | | | 近月合约 收盘价 -17 | 94260.00 | 95340.00 | 99060.00 | -1.080.00 | | | 连一合约 收盘价 | 94500.00 | 95400.00 | 99300.00 | -900.00 | 22 | | 连二合约 收盘价 | 94700.00 | 95640.00 | 99380.00 | -940.00 | 5 | | 连三合约 收盘价 | 94700.00 | 95640.00 | 99300.00 | -940.00 | | | 收盘价 | 96340.00 | 95400.00 | 99300.00 | 940.00 | 5 | | 砖酸包期货 成交堂(手) | 810231.00 | 511279.00 | 1767428.00 | 298,952.00 | 5 | | 活跃合约 ...

| 碳酸锂日评20251124:仍具回调空间 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期(日) | 2025-11-21 | 2025-11-20 | 2025-11-14 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | | 近月合约 收盘价 | 90960.00 | 98880.00 | 85720.00 | -7,920.00 | -5- | | 连一合约 收盘价 | 91020.00 | 98980.00 | 87220.00 | -7,960.00 | | | 连二合约 收盘价 | 91160.00 | 99160.00 | 87360.00 | -8,000.00 | | | 连三合约 收盘价 | 91160.00 | 99160.00 | 87060.00 | -8,000.00 | | | 收盘价 | 91020.00 | 98980.00 | 87360.00 | -7,960.00 | 11 | | 碳酸锂期货 成交堂(手) 活跃合约 (元/吨) | 1137824.00 | 1595646.00 | 757432.00 | -457 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lygend Resources & Technology is initiated with an OUTPERFORM rating and a target price (TP) of HK$27.56, reflecting a 10x 2026 estimated P/E ratio, due to its leadership in the global nickel industry and integrated operations across the nickel supply chain [1] Company Overview - Lygend Resources & Technology has transitioned from nickel ore trading to industrial operations, establishing a comprehensive presence in the nickel industry chain, including trading, smelting, production, and equipment manufacturing [1] - The company has secured long-term trade and supply agreements with upstream mining companies in the Philippines, Indonesia, and other regions, enhancing its resource stability [1] Competitive Advantages - The construction of a nickel business ecosystem covering the entire industry chain provides Lygend with distinctive competitive advantages, including stable resource supply through equity stakes granted to Indonesian partners [2] - The establishment of independent overseas industrial parks equipped with necessary infrastructure allows for operational autonomy and reduced transaction costs [2] - Collaborations with high-quality resource suppliers and long-term agreements with top-tier LiB material suppliers strengthen the company's position across the industry chain [2] Market Dynamics - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has announced a cobalt export quota system, which is expected to lead to a systematic increase in average cobalt prices, as the quotas for 2026-2027 will only account for 44% of its 2024 production [3][4] - The tightening regulations on cobalt export quotas are anticipated to benefit Lygend's hydrometallurgy project in Indonesia, potentially boosting earnings and valuation [4] Financial Projections - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for Lygend is projected at Rmb1.74 in 2025 and Rmb2.49 in 2026, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48% from 2024 to 2026 [4] - The stock is currently trading at 10.2x 2025 estimated P/E and 7.0x 2026 estimated P/E, with a target price suggesting a 43% upside [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The current supply and demand are both strong. The news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is inconsistent. The lithium carbonate production remains at a high level. High prices intensify the downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and the spot market trading volume is low. The power demand shows signs of peaking. The multi - empty game intensifies, and the trading channel is crowded. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate widely, and it is necessary to guard against a sharp fall after a rise. Production enterprises can conduct selling hedging at high positions [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Lithium Carbonate Futures and Spot Prices - On November 19, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 99,060 yuan/ton, 99,300 yuan/ton, 99,300 yuan/ton, and 99,300 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 5,640 yuan/ton, 5,780 yuan/ton, 5,860 yuan/ton, and 5,780 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The trading volume was 1,767,428 lots (+279,704), and the open interest was 503,132 lots (+18,775). The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price was 88,900 yuan/ton (+1,500), and the lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial - grade/ domestic) average price was 81,100 yuan/ton (+1,450) [1] 2. Lithium Ore and Related Product Prices - The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,086 US dollars/ton (+102), the price of lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,625 yuan/ton (+50), and the price of lithium mica (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,575 yuan/ton (+110) [1] 3. Downstream Product Prices - The average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was - 50 yuan/ton, the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power - type) was 141,150 yuan/ton (+500), the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 38,165 yuan/ton (+365) [1] 4. Production and Sales Data in the New Energy Vehicle Market - From November 1 - 16, the new - energy retail penetration rate of the national passenger vehicle market was 62.5%, and the new - energy wholesale penetration rate of national passenger vehicle manufacturers was 60.6%. In the first week of November, the production of pure - fuel light - duty vehicles was 331,000 units, a 3% year - on - year decrease compared with the same period last November and a 59% increase compared with the same period last month. The total production of hybrid and plug - in vehicles was 185,000 units, an 8% year - on - year decrease compared with the same period last November and a 27% increase compared with the same period last month [1] 5. Lithium Carbonate Inventory - The registered inventory was 26,611 tons (+155). The SMM lithium carbonate inventory of smelters, downstream, and others was 32,051 tons, 48,772 tons, and 2,200 tons respectively. The total inventory was 120,472 tons, a decrease compared with the previous period [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The current supply and demand are both strong. The news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is inconsistent. The lithium carbonate production remains high, and the high price increases the wait - and - see sentiment. The spot market has few transactions, and the power demand has shown signs of peaking. The game between long and short positions intensifies, and the trading channel is crowded. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate widely and may fall after a short - term rise [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Volume Data - **Futures Closing Prices**: On November 17, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 95,140 yuan/ton, 95,200 yuan/ton, 94,780 yuan/ton, and 94,780 yuan/ton respectively, with significant increases compared to previous dates [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active lithium carbonate futures contract was 1,366,919 lots (+609,487), and the open interest was 562,954 lots (+46,176) on November 17, 2025 [1]. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse inventory was 26,953 tons (-217), and social inventory decreased. Refineries and downstream industries reduced inventory, while other inventories increased [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The average prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and lithium carbonate increased to varying degrees [1]. Industry News PMET Resources Inc. submitted the NI 43 - 100 feasibility study technical report for the CV592 spodumene ore body in the Shaalcchurvaanaan project. The project has the largest spodumene resource in the Americas, with an indicated resource of 108 million tons (lithium oxide grade of 1.40%) and an initial inferred ore reserve of 8.3 million tons (grade of 1.26% Li₂O). It also has large resources of pollucite and tantalum [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was flat month - on - month. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene and lithium mica decreased, while that from salt lakes and recycling increased [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, while that of ternary materials decreased. In November, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide increased, and that of lithium manganate decreased. The production of power batteries decreased last week. In October, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, 3C product shipments were average, and the production of energy - storage batteries increased in November [1]. Investment Strategy Production enterprises can conduct sell - hedging at high prices [1].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Tengyuan Cobalt Industry, has raised a net amount of 5.204 billion yuan through its initial public offering, primarily aimed at expanding production capacity and upgrading technology for cobalt and nickel products [2]. Group 1: Fund Utilization - The raised funds are allocated for projects including the annual production of 20,000 tons of cobalt and 10,000 tons of nickel, along with the technological upgrade of related production facilities [2]. - Specific construction projects include production lines for cobalt (39,500 tons), copper (30,000 tons), nickel (60,000 tons), manganese (21,820 tons), and lithium carbonate (20,000 tons) [2]. Group 2: Current Production Capacity - As of now, the company has achieved a production capacity of 31,500 tons for cobalt, 10,000 tons for nickel, 10,000 tons for manganese, 5,000 tons for lithium carbonate, and 60,000 tons for copper [2]. - The project benefits are expected to gradually materialize as production capacity is realized, with the company planning to advance capacity expansion in an orderly manner based on resource supply, market conditions, and product demand [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply and demand are both strong, with repeated news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi. The production of lithium carbonate remains at a high level, and the high price intensifies the wait - and - see sentiment among downstream players, resulting in sluggish trading in the spot market. However, there is an expectation of weakening in power demand, and the game between bulls and bears intensifies. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate widely. Production enterprises can conduct sell - hedging at high prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Carbonate Lithium Futures Market - On November 10, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures increased in price with an increase in positions. The trading volume was 986,569 lots (+175,914), and the position volume was 534,483 lots (+43,532). The trading in the spot market was sluggish, and the basis discount was large [1]. - The prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, consecutive - three contracts and the overall price all increased compared to the previous trading days. For example, the near - month contract's closing price increased from 80,460 yuan/ton on November 7 to 84,500 yuan/ton on November 10 [1]. 3.2 Lithium - Related Product Prices - The prices of various lithium - related products generally showed an upward trend. For example, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 39 US dollars/ton to 966 US dollars/ton, and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) increased by 45 yuan/ton to 1,365 yuan/ton [1]. - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) increased by 350 yuan/ton to 80,750 yuan/ton, and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% domestic, coarse - grained) increased by 50 yuan/ton to 75,630 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply side**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials all increased. In November, the planned production of lithium carbonate increased, and the scheduled production decreased [1]. - **Demand side**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased, and the production of ternary materials increased. In November, the planned production of power batteries increased. In terms of terminal demand, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new - energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in October, the 3C shipment volume was average, and the planned production of energy - storage batteries increased in November [1]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - The registered warehouse receipts were 27,491 tons (+159 tons), and the social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters, downstream enterprises, and other parties all decreased. The total inventory decreased by 3,405 tons to 123,953 tons last week [1]. 3.5 Industry News - In October, the wholesale sales volume of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 1.621 million, a year - on - year increase of 18.5% and a month - on - month increase of 8.5%. From January to October, the cumulative wholesale volume was 12.058 million, a year - on - year increase of 29.9% [1]. - The Secretariat of Mining and Energy of Salta Province, Argentina, has issued an Environmental Impact Assessment Report for the first phase of the PPGS Jujuy Lake project, marking a key progress for the project. The project plans to submit an application for the Large - scale Investment Promotion System (RIGI) to the Argentine government in the first half of 2026 and has about 15,070 tons of LCE indicated + controlled resources [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On November 4, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated downward. The spot market remained bearish, and the basis changed from a discount to a premium. Currently, both supply and demand are strong. The news of the resumption of production of lithium mines in Jiangxi is inconsistent, but the production of lithium carbonate remains high. High prices have increased the wait - and - see sentiment among downstream players. The inflection point may be approaching. If the weakening of demand is verified, there is still room for the price to fall. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate widely. The recommended trading strategy is to hold short positions and partially take profits after the downward trend stabilizes [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Data Futures Price and Trading Volume - On November 4, 2025, the closing prices of lithium carbonate futures contracts decreased compared with the previous day. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract was 77,160 yuan/ton (-3,460 yuan/ton), and the closing price of the active contract was 78,560 yuan/ton (-3,720 yuan/ton). The trading volume of the active contract was 975,978 hands (+389,310 hands), and the open interest was 457,374 hands (-67,810 hands) [1] Inventory and Basis - The inventory on November 4, 2025, was 26,490 tons (-800 tons). The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) changed from - 1,280 yuan/ton on November 3 to 2,340 yuan/ton on November 4, an increase of 3,620 yuan/ton [1] Raw Material Prices - On November 4, 2025, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 931 US dollars/ton (-10 US dollars/ton), and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,315 yuan/ton (-35 yuan/ton) [1] Downstream Product Prices and Output - The prices of some downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolyte changed. In terms of output, last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate increased, the output of ternary materials increased, and the output of power batteries increased. In November, the production schedule of cobalt - lithium increased, and the production schedule of manganese - lithium decreased [1] Terminal Market Conditions - In October, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down; the 3C shipments were average; the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in November [1] Supply - related News - The lithium spodumene concentrate of the Bougouni lithium project of Kodal Minerals has been shipped to the port of San Pedro, Côte d'Ivoire, with a cumulative shipment of over 10,000 tons, and the shipment progress meets market expectations [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term supply - demand pattern is favorable with continuous inventory depletion and good performance on the consumption side, providing some support for the market. However, the upstream hedging willingness will increase at the price of 83,000 yuan/ton. An inventory inflection point is expected in December. If consumption weakens and the mining end resumes production, the inventory may shift from depletion to accumulation, causing the market to decline [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 opened at 81,260 yuan/ton and closed at 82,280 yuan/ton, with a - 0.10% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 586,668 lots, and the open interest was 525,184 lots (compared to 510,440 lots the previous day). The basis was - 960 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 27,290 lots, a decrease of 331 lots from the previous day [1]. - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 79,400 - 82,600 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate at 78,200 - 79,400 yuan/ton, both up 450 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 975 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Downstream material factories' operating rates are rising, but market transactions are dull after the price increase. Upstream and downstream enterprises are negotiating long - term contracts for next year, mainly on coefficients. The overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remains high, with both spodumene and salt - lake ends above 60%. November's domestic lithium carbonate production is expected to be similar to October's [2]. - In October, domestic lithium carbonate production increased 6% month - on - month and 55% year - on - year. Other products like lithium hydroxide, cobalt sulfate, etc. also showed various growth or decline trends [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach, focus on inventory and consumption inflection points, and opportunistically sell hedging at high prices [4]. - Cross - period: None [5]. - Cross - variety: None [5]. - Spot - futures: None [5]. - Options: None [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On October 30, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a high level. The current supply and demand are both strong, the upstream inventory pressure is not significant, and the situation has improved. The cancellation of warehouse receipts has driven the price up. However, the production remains at a high level. After the price increase, the downstream inventory replenishment slows down, and the inflection point of power demand may be approaching. One should be cautious about the price rising and then falling. It is recommended to go short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On October 30, the closing price of the near - month contract was 81,840 yuan/ton (+100), the closing price of the consecutive - one contract was 83,260 yuan/ton (+520), the closing price of the consecutive - two contract was 83,000 yuan/ton (+600), the closing price of the consecutive - three contract was 83,000 yuan/ton (+600), and the closing price was 83,400 yuan/ton (+500) [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 829,117 lots (+169,696), and the open interest of the active contract was 532,871 lots (+25,989) [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 27,641 tons (+116) [3]. - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 1,420 yuan/ton (-420), the spread between the consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was 260 yuan/ton (-80), and the spread between the consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton (0) [3]. - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 3,400 yuan/ton (+350) [3]. - **Raw Material Prices**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 944 US dollars/ton (+16), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,380 yuan/ton (+50), and the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,180 yuan/ton (+50) [3]. - **Lithium Product Prices**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 80,000 yuan/ton (+850), the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% domestic) was 77,800 yuan/ton (+850), and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% domestic, coarse - grained) was 75,380 yuan/ton (+300) [3]. - **Other Product Prices**: The average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95% domestic) was 106,000 yuan/ton (+3,000), the average price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 103,850 yuan/ton (0), and the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type) was 35,805 yuan/ton (+210) [3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased, mainly due to a slight decline in the production of lithium carbonate from spodumene. In October, the production of lithium carbonate and manganese - based lithium increased [3]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased, and the production of power batteries increased. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, the 3C shipments were average, and the production of energy - storage batteries increased in October [3]. Inventory Analysis - The registered warehouse receipts were 27,641 tons (+116), and the social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and downstream enterprises decreased, while the inventory of other sectors increased [3]. News - On the afternoon of October 30, the auction of Albemarle spodumene powder ore ended. The auction target was 16,400 dry tons of 5.21% spodumene powder ore from Wodgma, and the actual transaction price was 7,058 yuan/ton (including tax) [3].