Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in revenue and net profit, indicating robust operational efficiency and market demand [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 2.522 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 855 million yuan, up 216.64% year-on-year [1] - For Q2 2025, the company recorded revenue of 1.309 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.00% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.99% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q2 2025 improved to 60.63%, with a year-on-year increase of 13.97 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.51 percentage points [1] Industry Dynamics - Domestic demand for potassium fertilizer remains strong, supported by government policies promoting the expansion of oilseed crops and changing dietary structures leading to increased demand for feed and fruits [2] - The average market price for potassium fertilizer in Q2 2025 was approximately 2,994 yuan per ton, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.65% [2] - The company’s production and sales volumes for the first half of 2025 rose by 10.24% and 8.42% year-on-year, reaching 1.0141 million tons and 1.0454 million tons, respectively [2] Strategic Developments - The company’s major shareholder, Huineng Group, has increased its stake to 14.05%, enhancing the company’s financial backing and strategic direction [3] - The company is progressing well with its mining construction projects, aiming to achieve a production capacity of 5 million tons per year, with plans to expand further based on market demand [3] - Tax incentives for the company’s subsidiaries are expected to strengthen its competitive position in the market [2][3] Profit Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 1.887 billion yuan, 3.114 billion yuan, and 4.359 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 19X, 11X, and 8X [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with total revenue reaching 2.522 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.54%, and net profit attributable to shareholders at 855 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 216.64% [6] - The domestic demand for potassium fertilizer remains strong, supported by government policies and changes in consumer dietary habits, leading to a rapid increase in potassium fertilizer demand [6] - The company is progressing well with its projects, including the construction of additional potassium fertilizer production facilities, which are expected to enhance its production capacity significantly in the coming years [6] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 6.55 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 84.6% [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.887 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 98.5% [5] - The gross profit margin is forecasted to be 54.7% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 13.7% [5]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告|行业点评 基础化工 2025 年 06 月 16 日 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 点评： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 行业寡头格局明显，欧洲减产扰动供给。全球钾肥市场呈现寡头垄断特征。根据观 研天下统计，2023 年全球钾矿储量超过 36 亿吨，主要分布在加拿大、白俄罗斯和 俄罗斯，储量（折 K2O）分别 11.0 亿吨、7.5 亿吨、6.5 亿吨，储量占比合计为 69%（按照总储量 36 亿吨计算），这种寡头格局导致龙头企业可通过控制产能释 放调控价格。根据肥料与贸易和农资导报，前苏联三家钾肥公司都先后宣布上半年 的减产计划，合计减少出口 180 万吨以上（考虑了 Uralkali 因国内需求增加而减少 出口的部分）。其中 Eurochem 由于其在俄罗斯的 Usolskiy 和 Volgakaliy 矿的改造 和系统升级将在第二季度减少约 10 万吨的钾肥产量；1 月 22 日白俄罗斯钾肥巨 头 Belaruskali 计划在其索利戈尔斯克 4 号矿区开展大规模设备维护作业，直接导 致公司钾肥产量减少约 90 万~100 万吨；Uralkali 三座矿山 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the 2025 Indian potash contract price has been set at $349 per ton, which may boost the potash market's prosperity [2] - The transaction between Belarus and India's IPL involves a shipment of 650,000 tons, with the price being $70 per ton higher than the 2024 Indian contract price and $76 per ton higher than the 2024 Chinese import contract price [2] - Domestic potash prices are currently tight, with 60% potash self-delivery prices ranging from 2800 to 2830 RMB per ton, and market prices for 57% powder around 2400 to 2450 RMB per ton [2] Group 2 - The supply side shows limited circulation of potash due to reduced domestic production and low inventory levels, with port inventories at 2.062 million tons as of May 30 [2] - Demand for potash is currently weak, with cautious replenishment from buyers, but the low domestic inventory and the new Indian contract price may stimulate market activity [2] - Recommended stocks include Salt Lake Co. and Yara International, while benefiting stocks include Zangge Mining and Oriental Tower [2] Group 3 - A significant development in the nylon industry was reported, with the launch of a 100,000 tons/year acetonitrile facility by China Pingmei Shenma Group, marking a breakthrough in the production of key raw materials for nylon 66 [3] - The establishment of this facility is expected to reshape the nylon industry landscape in China [3] Group 4 - Recommended stocks in the chemical sector include Wanhu Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Hengli Petrochemical, and others, while benefiting stocks span various sectors including fluorine chemicals and new materials [4][5]