[Table_Main] 证券研究报告|行业点评 基础化工 2025 年 06 月 16 日 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 点评： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 行业寡头格局明显，欧洲减产扰动供给。全球钾肥市场呈现寡头垄断特征。根据观 研天下统计，2023 年全球钾矿储量超过 36 亿吨，主要分布在加拿大、白俄罗斯和 俄罗斯，储量（折 K2O）分别 11.0 亿吨、7.5 亿吨、6.5 亿吨，储量占比合计为 69%（按照总储量 36 亿吨计算），这种寡头格局导致龙头企业可通过控制产能释 放调控价格。根据肥料与贸易和农资导报，前苏联三家钾肥公司都先后宣布上半年 的减产计划，合计减少出口 180 万吨以上（考虑了 Uralkali 因国内需求增加而减少 出口的部分）。其中 Eurochem 由于其在俄罗斯的 Usolskiy 和 Volgakaliy 矿的改造 和系统升级将在第二季度减少约 10 万吨的钾肥产量；1 月 22 日白俄罗斯钾肥巨 头 Belaruskali 计划在其索利戈尔斯克 4 号矿区开展大规模设备维护作业，直接导 致公司钾肥产量减少约 90 万~100 万吨；Uralkali 三座矿山 ...

据百川盈孚数据，6月4日，白俄罗斯与印度IPL以349美元/吨的价格达成交易，发货至 2025年12月份，货量为65万吨（相较2024年印度大合同价279美元/吨CFR高出70美元/吨，相 较2024年中国钾肥进口大合同价273美元/吨CFR高出76美元/吨）。价格端，截至6月5日，国 产60％钾自提参考2800-2830元/吨，市场到站参考2950-3030元/吨，57%粉自提参考2400- 2450元/吨，市场到站参考2800元/吨左右。进口钾方面，62%白钾参考3150-3220元/吨左右， 60%老挝粉参考3020元/吨左右，60%白俄颗粒钾参考3180元/吨左右；边贸口岸62%白钾参 考2950元/吨左右。供应端，本周国内氯化钾减量生产、库存低位，现货流通有限；国产 60%钾主工厂直供，市场现货偏紧，57%粉按需自提、陆续出货。进口钾方面，截至5月30 日，港口库存合计206.2万吨（含其他港口及保税区），港存低位徘徊；班列货源少量抵达 且陆续消耗当中；边贸新单签323美元/吨，预计下旬到货，目前现货流通一般。整体来看， 氯化钾市场供应有限，现货流通偏紧，场内贸易商随行就市、出货缓慢。需求端，本周氯 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][11]. Core Views - The company has significantly increased its potassium chloride production and sales, with a focus on expanding its potassium and phosphate mineral resources [5][10]. - The company achieved a revenue of 4.196 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.79%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.97% to 564 million yuan [4][6]. - The report highlights the robust performance of the steel structure manufacturing segment and the substantial growth in potassium chloride production and sales [5][10]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.196 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.79% [4][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 564 million yuan, reflecting a decrease of 10.97% compared to the previous year [4][6]. - The sales gross margin was 27.38%, showing a slight increase of 0.18 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 13.42%, down by 2.41 percentage points [4][6]. - The potassium chloride segment achieved a revenue of 2.464 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.31%, despite a decrease in gross margin by 5.19 percentage points to 40.40% [6][10]. Market Outlook - The global potassium fertilizer market is expected to remain tight, with prices showing an upward trend due to seasonal demand and supply constraints [9][10]. - The average price of potassium chloride in Q1 2025 was 2,881 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 353 yuan per ton [9][15]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing high demand for potassium fertilizers, with plans to increase its production capacity to 3 million tons in the medium term [10][11]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 4.724 billion yuan, 4.945 billion yuan, and 5.177 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [11][39]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise to 925 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 64% [11][39]. - The report anticipates a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 10 for 2025, decreasing to 9 by 2027, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [11][39].

2025 年 04 月 28 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) 研究所： 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 陈云 S0350524070001 cheny17@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 一季度业绩同比大幅提升，矿建加速推进 ——亚钾国际（000893）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/04/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 亚钾国际 | 14.3% | 51.4% | 56.6% | | 沪深 300 | -3.7% | -1.2% | 7.3% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/04/25 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 29.22 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | | | 13.65-29.30 | | 总市值（百万） | | | 27,000.78 | | ...