丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨化工 [Table_Title] 基础化工 2025 中报综述：黎明破晓，迎接阳光 普照 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年上半年宏观经济缓慢修复，化工行业营收小幅增长，利润微降。2025H1，化工行业实 现营业收入 12630.5 亿元，同比变动+1.9%；归属净利润为 746.7 亿元，同比-1.0%；毛利率为 16.8%，同比基本持平。展望后市，化工品景气有望修复。需求端，9 月美联储降息预期，或带 动化工品消费回暖，叠加国内反内卷政策催化，供需有望实现共振。2025 年海外化工龙头业绩 普遍亏损或暴降，加速产能清退；国内化工企业资本开支下降，现金流有望恢复，化工板块景 气有望底部向好，建议积极布局化工投资机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马太 王明 李禹默 王呈 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490521030001 SAC：S0490525060002 SAC：S0490525040004 SFC：BUT911 SFC：BVA881 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research ...

AI基金华宝ESG责任投资混合A（018118）披露2025年半年报，上半年基金利润127.8万元，加权平均基金份额本期利润0.0189元。报告期内，基金净值增长 率为1.93%，截至上半年末，基金规模为5974.32万元。 该基金属于偏股混合型基金。截至9月3日，单位净值为1.025元。基金经理是毛文博，目前管理的2只基金近一年均为正收益。其中，截至9月3日，华宝收益 增长混合A近一年复权单位净值增长率最高，达34.27%；华宝ESG责任投资混合A最低，为32.76%。 基金管理人在中期报告中表示，我们发现钾肥行业是一门很好的生意，从全球来看，钾肥资源具有一定程度上的类垄断特征。售价长期大幅高于生产成本， 使得这个行业的企业能够轻松获得超过社会平均报酬率的回报率水平。行业内的公司自由现金流极其充沛，部分公司已经几乎完全没有负债。在合理的股价 水平，我们相信行业里的公司未来会为股东创造更大的价值。而部分公司在股东层面也发生了比较大的变化，我们乐于在合理的价格去观察这种变化的影 响。 在电解铝等方向，我们增加了一些持仓。产能上限让这个行业的竞争格局无比清晰，而去年氧化铝的压力测试让我们能够确信电解铝环节是整个产 ...

Industry Overview - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 11th this week (2025/08/25-2025/08/29) with a fluctuation of 1.11%, positioned in the upper-middle of the market. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated by 0.84%, while the ChiNext Index saw a fluctuation of 7.74%. The Shenwan Chemical sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite by 0.27 percentage points but underperformed the ChiNext by 6.63 percentage points [1][2]. Key Industry Insights - The chemical industry is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [2]. Synthetic Biology - A pivotal moment for synthetic biology is anticipated, driven by energy structure adjustments. Traditional chemical companies will face competition based on energy consumption and carbon tax costs. Companies that utilize green energy alternatives and scale advantages are likely to reduce energy costs and expand into larger overseas markets. The demand for bio-based materials is expected to surge, leading to potential profitability and valuation increases. Key companies to watch include Kasei Bio and Huaheng Bio [2]. Refrigerants - The implementation of quota policies is expected to usher in a high-growth cycle for third-generation refrigerants. Starting in 2024, the supply of these refrigerants will enter a "quota + continuous reduction" phase, while second-generation refrigerants will see accelerated reductions. The demand for refrigerants is projected to grow steadily due to the development of heat pumps, cold chain markets, and the expansion of the air conditioning market in Southeast Asia. Companies with a high quota share in refrigerants are likely to benefit from the ongoing supply-demand gap. Relevant companies include Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Yonghe Co. [3][4]. Electronic Specialty Gases - Electronic specialty gases are critical to the electronics industry and represent a core aspect of domestic industrial chain localization. The domestic market is experiencing rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing, leading to a mismatch between the demand for high-end electronic specialty gases and the insufficient domestic production capacity. Companies that can establish high-end production capacity and possess substantial technical reserves are expected to gain a competitive edge. Key players include Jinhong Gas, Huate Gas, and China Shipbuilding Gas [4][5]. Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals - The trend towards light raw materials in the global olefin industry has been significant over the past decade, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter low-carbon alkanes like ethane and propane. This transition is characterized by shorter processes, higher yields, and lower costs. Light hydrocarbon chemicals are also aligned with global low-carbon and energy-saving initiatives. The leading companies in this sector are expected to see their valuations reassessed positively [5]. COC Polymers - The industrialization process of COC/COP (cyclic olefin copolymer) is accelerating in China, driven by domestic companies achieving breakthroughs after years of research. The shift of downstream industries, such as consumer electronics and new energy vehicles, to domestic production has heightened the urgency for local alternatives. The market for COC/COP remains constrained by supply-side bottlenecks, but domestic companies are poised to break through and expand market opportunities. Notable companies include Akerley [6]. MDI Market Dynamics - The MDI market is characterized by oligopolistic supply dynamics, with demand remaining stable due to the expansion of polyurethane applications. The global MDI production capacity is concentrated among eight manufacturers, with five major companies accounting for 90.85% of total capacity. Despite current price pressures, MDI is expected to maintain profitability, and the supply landscape is likely to improve as demand recovers. Key companies to monitor include Wanhua Chemical [9]. Price Tracking - The top five price increases this week included NYMEX natural gas (11.08%), bisphenol A (2.99%), PX (2.86%), refrigerant R32 (2.56%), and butadiene (2.08%). Conversely, the largest price declines were seen in liquid chlorine (-25.86%), urea (-3.45%), TDI (-3.33%), toluene (-3.18%), and pure benzene (-2.70%) [10]. Supply Side Tracking - This week, 153 chemical companies reported changes in production capacity, with six new maintenance activities and four restarts noted [11].

虽然喜获国家电网大单，但钾肥业务的"一骑绝尘"，却透露出东方铁塔（SZ002545，股价10.13元，市 值126.02亿元）"偏科"的尴尬。 一边是高歌猛进的"现金牛"，一边是增长乏力的传统主业，这份中标喜报在为东方铁塔带来短期利好的 同时，也将其增长模式的"偏科"与未来的发展隐忧再次推至聚光灯下。 两次中标背后有隐忧？ 作为国内能够生产最高电压等级1000kV输电线路铁塔的企业之一，东方铁塔在电网设备领域的技术实 力和市场地位再次得到验证。 根据东方铁塔9月2日晚间发布的公告，公司及其全资子公司在国家电网有限公司近期两次集中招标中成 功中标。 这两次中标项目分别为"国家电网有限公司2025年第四十九批采购（输变电项目第四次线路装置性材料 招标采购）"和"国家电网有限公司2025年第三十四批采购（特高压项目第三次材料招标采购）"。 9月2日晚间，东方铁塔发布公告宣布，公司及全资子公司近日在国家电网有限公司的集中招标采购中合 计中标约1.37亿元。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，这笔看似可观的订单，仅占东方铁塔2024年经审计营业收入的3.27%。 这一"小惊喜"的背后，是公司双主业发展日益加剧的分化。 根据东 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：盐湖股份会否考虑投资有色金属？参股铜矿企业等？ 盐湖股份（000792.SZ）9月4日在投资者互动平台表示，公司聚焦钾锂主业，目前暂无投资有色金属行 业的规划。 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from a tightening global supply of potash, with prices expected to continue rising due to reduced production from major suppliers [2][3]. - The company is advancing its next 1 million tons per year potash project in Laos, leveraging the region's rich resources and favorable logistics [3]. - The financial outlook is positive, with projected net profits increasing significantly over the next few years [4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Major producers like Russia and Belarus are expected to reduce output by at least 1.6 million tons, leading to a tighter global potash supply in 2025 [1][2]. - Demand: Global potash demand is forecasted to rise to 74.3 million tons in 2025, with China's import dependency increasing to 70.7% [2]. - Price Trends: The average price of potash in China is projected to rise by 23.8% year-on-year, with a significant contract price increase of 26.7% for 2025 [2]. Financial Performance and Projections - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of 2.148 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, and a net profit of 490 million yuan, up 79.2% [1]. - The company’s potash segment generated 1.4 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting a 19% increase, with a gross margin of 52.2% [3]. - Forecasted net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.051 billion yuan, 1.200 billion yuan, and 1.506 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 12.25X to 8.55X [4][5].

长江商报奔腾新闻记者 杨蝶 钾肥业务高歌猛进之下，东方铁塔（002545.SZ）钢结构业务也在稳定发展。 在这种情况下，东方铁塔寻求外向而生。2016年，东方铁塔作价40亿元收购汇元达100%股权，进军钾 肥领域，布局第二主业。目前，公司形成钢结构行业和钾肥行业双主业并行发展的格局。 从营收结构看，钾肥业务正撑起东方铁塔业绩的半壁江山。2025年上半年，公司化工业务实现收入 14.35亿元，制造业实现收入6.97亿元，占同期公司总营收的比重分别为66.8%、32.44%。 受益于氯化钾产品市场价格持续上涨，钾肥业务收入和利润显著提升，东方铁塔2025年上半年的整体经 营业绩也大幅增长，公司实现的营业收入为21.48亿元，同比增长8.51%；净利润为4.93亿元，同比增长 79.18%。两项业绩指标均创下其同期历史新高。 东方铁塔的财务状况也在改善。2025年上半年，公司经营活动产生的现金流量净额为9.35亿元，同比增 长16.53%。期末其账面货币资金为36.75亿元，短期借款和一年内到期的非流动负债分别为10.6亿元、 2.18亿元；资产负债率为34.98%，较2024年同期的35.79%下降0.81个百分 ...

Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,813.56, down 1.16% [4] - The New Materials sector index increased by 3.72%, underperforming the ChiNext Index by 4.01% [5] Industry Commentary - The State Council's issuance of the "Artificial Intelligence +" action plan is expected to drive rapid development in AI new materials [5] - The FDA's plan to phase out synthetic food colorings is likely to benefit domestic natural colorant companies due to a surge in demand [8] Company Analysis - **Yara International (000893.SZ)**: The company reported a 48.5% year-on-year increase in revenue to 2.52 billion yuan and a 216.6% increase in net profit to 850 million yuan for H1 2025, driven by rising potassium fertilizer prices and sales [10] - **Jianlong Micro-Nano**: The company achieved a revenue of 378 million yuan in H1 2025, a 0.33% increase year-on-year, with a focus on expanding its product matrix and overseas growth [11] - **Xianlead Intelligent (300450.SZ)**: The company reported a strong rebound in order volume for H1 2025, with revenue expected to grow significantly due to the recovery of the lithium battery sector [14] - **Zhejiang Rongtai (603119.SH)**: The company is focusing on the development of humanoid robots and reported steady growth in its main business [26] - **Qingda Environmental Protection (688501.SH)**: The company’s performance met expectations, with AI applications in the thermal power sector expected to exceed forecasts [29] Investment Recommendations - The AI server market is projected to grow from $125.1 billion in 2024 to $158.7 billion in 2025, with significant growth in China's AI computing market anticipated [5] - Domestic natural colorant companies are recommended for investment due to the expected demand surge from the FDA's synthetic colorant phase-out [8] - Yara International is expected to achieve net profits of 1.89 billion, 2.54 billion, and 3.52 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with a corresponding PE ratio of 16, 12, and 9 [10] - Jianlong Micro-Nano is expected to enhance its capabilities through strategic acquisitions and product development [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry [4][5]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability in Q2 2025, driven by a decrease in oil and coal prices, which has alleviated cost pressures [4][6]. - The report highlights a strong demand trend post-holiday, with inventory levels decreasing and a significant recovery in profitability across various sectors within the chemical industry [4][6]. - The report emphasizes the long-term upward trend in demand due to improved liquidity and supportive government policies, despite external challenges [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Chemical Industry Overview - In Q2 2025, the chemical sector saw a revenue increase of 2% year-on-year, reaching 548.3 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 5% to 35.5 billion yuan [25][26]. - The overall gross margin for the industry was reported at 17.9%, with a slight improvement from the previous quarter [27][30]. 2. Profit Recovery in Q2 2025 - The report notes that the chemical industry is in a phase of recovery, with various sub-sectors showing significant improvements in profitability, particularly in agriculture-related chemicals and fluorochemicals [4][5]. - The report identifies key sectors such as pesticides, fluorochemicals, and potassium fertilizers as having notable profit increases, while sectors like organic silicon and soda ash faced declines [4][5]. 3. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on four main areas for investment: textile supply chain, agricultural chemicals, export-related chemicals, and sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies [5][6]. - Specific companies to watch include Huafu Chemical, Yunnan Yuntianhua, and Wanhu Chemical, which are positioned well within their respective markets [5][6]. 4. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the overall market sentiment is improving, with the chemical index rising by 23.89% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming other indices [13][15]. - The report also highlights that the supply side is stabilizing, with capital expenditures nearing their peak and a reduction in ongoing projects, which is expected to lead to a long-term improvement in supply-demand dynamics [6][7].

东方铁塔 8 月 28 日发布 2025 年中报，2025 年 H1 实现营业总收入 21.48 亿元，同 比增长 8.51%，实现扣非归母净利润 4.8 亿元，同比增长 77.95%；其中 2025Q2 实现营业总收入 11.93 亿元，同比增长 10.20%，环比增长 25.04%，实现扣非归母 净利润 2.76 亿元，同比增长 160.71%，环比增长 35.26%，公司业绩略超预期。 投资要点 ❑ 行业景气度稳中有升，公司经营稳定 钾肥迎来小景气，公司业绩稳中有升。根据百川盈孚数据，2025H1 氯化钾均价 为 2943.20 元/吨，同比增加 20.44%，环比增加 18.01%；2025Q1 氯化钾均价为 2897.74 元/吨，同比增加 16.5%，环比增加 16.38%；进入 2025Q2，氯化钾价格 反弹，截至 8 月 27 日国内氯化钾均价 3276 元/吨，相比今年低位上涨 30.21%， 行业景气有望恢复。根据百川盈孚数据，2025H1 氯化钾进口量为 628 万吨，同 比减少 2.34%；其中 2025Q1 氯化钾进口量为 354.60 万吨，同比下降 7.58%，环 比增长 4.4 ...