智通财经APP获悉，周二，全球最大的上市矿业公司必和必拓(BHP.US)发表了对全球铁矿石需求持乐观 态度的观点，同时在将其关键增长支柱——铜矿的一季度产量提升之际，保持了铁矿石产出的稳定。 "大宗商品需求的整体宏观经济信号依然强劲，全球经济增长预期也在不断上调，"必和必拓首席执行官 Mike Henry表示。 本月早些时候，其竞争对手力拓(RIO.US)曾指出，随着全球经济体在即将实施的关税政策前提前加大投 资，中国市场对铁矿石的需求已有所回升。 展望未来，必和必拓维持其对西澳大利亚铁矿石2026财年的产量预期不变，仍为2.84亿至2.96亿公吨(按 100%权益口径计算)。 增产铜矿强化战略布局 另外，必和必拓当季铜产量增长4%至49.36万吨，这主要得益于智利巨型Escondida项目的增产，有效抵 消了其他矿区产量下滑的影响。 在行业前景日益看好的背景下，大型矿业公司正积极扩大铜业务布局。这种红色金属因在可再生能源和 数据基础设施领域的关键作用而备受青睐。必和必拓自身预测，到2050年全球铜需求将激增70%。 在截至9月30日的三个月里，必和必拓西澳大利亚矿区按100%权益计算的铁矿石产量为7020万 ...

投资者关系活动基本情况 本次投资者关系活动类别为业绩说明会（电话会议），召开时间为2025年10月20日。参与机构涵盖券 商、基金、私募等多个领域，包括华泰证券黄自迪、国盛证券王瀚晨、长江证券周相君、兴证全球基金 程卿云、民生加银基金孙常蕾等304位分析师和投资者。公司方面，董事会秘书李瑞雪介绍了前三季度 生产经营情况，财务负责人张立平汇报了财务数据，投关主管陈牧迪解读了钾、锂、铜业务的行业动态 与发展前景，并共同回答了投资者提问。 调研核心要点解析 钾锂铜协同发展 三大板块构建增长引擎 10月20日，藏格矿业（股票代码：000408）召开2025年第三季度业绩说明会，以电话会议形式接待了包 括华泰证券、国盛证券、长江证券等在内的304位分析师和投资者。公司董事会秘书李瑞雪、投关主管 陈牧迪及财务负责人张立平出席会议，就公司2025年前三季度生产经营情况、钾锂铜三大业务板块规 划、成本控制、项目进展及股东回报等问题与机构进行深入交流。 成本控制成效显著 氯化钾毛利率提升至63.46% 针对前三季度营收同比增长3.35%而营业成本同比减少的情况，公司解释： 公司表示，长远目标是成为全球一流矿业集团，将依托自身矿 ...

股票代码：000408 股票简称：藏格矿业 发板块，察尔汗盐湖现有锂产能的稳定运行和麻米错盐 湖电池级碳酸锂项目的稳步推进，将共同构成新的业绩 增长点。 3、公司在分红方面有什么安排？ 答：公司始终重视股东回报，以实际行动与投资者 共享发展成果。2025 年上半年公司实施现金分红 15.69 亿元，2022 至 2024 年累计分红达 74 亿元，体现了公司 对股东回报的一贯重视。未来，公司将结合发展阶段、 资金需求及未来规划，制定合理稳定的利润分配方案， 持续为投资者创造价值。 4、报告期内营收同比增长而营业成本同比减少的 主要原因是什么？ 答：（1）营收同比增长，主要是氯化钾"价增量 涨"，导致氯化钾营业收入同比增长约 34.04%，同时碳 酸锂由于市场价格波动及 7 月中旬-9 月停产，"价减量 跌"，导致碳酸锂营业收入同比减少约 64.50%，由于碳 酸锂收入占比小于氯化钾，综合影响导致营收同比增长 3.35%；（2）营业成本同比减少，主要是碳酸锂 7 月中 旬-9 月停产销量大幅下降，导致碳酸锂营业成本大幅下 降，同时氯化钾板块控本增效的成果显著导致单位成本 下降，虽然销量小幅上升，但是氯化钾营业成 ...

今年三季度，国内钾肥行业头部企业盐湖股份、藏格矿业、东方铁塔业绩增长迅猛，三季度净利润都有 不菲增幅。 藏格矿业率先发布三季报，前三季度实现归母净利润27.5亿元，同比增长47.26%，其中第三季度净利润 9.51亿元，同比增幅达66.49%。公司业绩增长呈现 "双轮驱动" 特征：一方面钾肥业务量价齐升，前三 季度氯化钾销量78.38万吨，同比增加9.62%，平均售价2919.81元/吨同比增加26.88%，毛利率攀升至 63.46%；另一方面投资收益贡献显著，参股的巨龙铜业前三季度净利润64.21亿元，为公司带来19.5亿 元投资收益，占净利润比重达70.89%。 盐湖股份以43亿元至47亿元的净利润位居首位，预计同比增长36.89%至49.62%。第三季度的净利润预 计为18亿元至22亿元，超出市场预期，同比增长93.77%至136.83%。该公司在财报中表示，报告期内， 氯化钾价格较上年同期有所上升，带动该业务板块盈利增长。 (主要钾肥公司第三季度净利润增长情况) 上海钢联数据显示，三季度60%氯化钾进口价格在3200元/吨浮动，较上一季度环比增加200元/吨左右。 Wind数据显示，2024年末青海盐 ...

资料显示，青海盐湖工业股份有限公司位于青海省格尔木市黄河路28号，成立日期1997年8月25日，上 市日期1997年9月4日，公司主营业务涉及钾肥和锂盐的开发、生产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：钾产 品79.16%，锂产品18.32%，其他2.40%，贸易0.12%。 盐湖股份所属申万行业为：基础化工-农化制品-钾肥。所属概念板块包括：西部开发、稀缺资源、化 肥、盐湖提锂、特色小镇等。 10月20日，盐湖股份盘中下跌2.04%，截至13:45，报21.65元/股，成交11.26亿元，换手率0.97%，总市 值1145.63亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出1.14亿元，特大单买入1.30亿元，占比11.51%，卖出2.11亿元，占比 18.77%；大单买入2.97亿元，占比26.38%，卖出3.30亿元，占比29.28%。 盐湖股份今年以来股价涨31.53%，近5个交易日跌1.99%，近20日涨6.86%，近60日涨19.55%。 截至6月30日，盐湖股份股东户数20.10万，较上期减少6.24%；人均流通股26327股，较上期增加 6.66%。2025年1月-6月，盐湖股份实现营业收入67.81亿元，同比减 ...

2025 年 10 月 20 日 盈利预测、估值与评级：得益于氯化钾价格和铜价的上涨，公司业绩实现大幅增 长。考虑到氯化钾价格和铜价的上涨，我们上调公司 2025-2027 年盈利预测。 预计 2025-2027 年公司归母净利润分别为 36.45、48.45、58.28 亿元（前值分 别为 30.28、43.69、51.75 亿元），维持公司"增持"评级。 风险提示：产品及原材料价格波动，下游需求不及预期，产能建设进度不及预期， 环保及安全生产风险。 公司研究 氯化钾及铜价格上涨业绩大增，碳酸锂产线正式复产 ——藏格矿业（000408.SZ）2025 年三季报点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2025 年第三季度报告。2025 年前三季度，公司实现营收 24.01 亿元，同比增长 3.35%；实现归母净利润 27.51 亿元，同比增长 47.26%；实现 扣非后归母净利润 27.56 亿元，同比增长 49.27%。2025Q3，公司单季度实现 营收 7.23 亿元，同比增长 28.71%，环比减少 35.76%；实现归母净利润 9.51 亿元，同比增长 66.49%，环比减少 9.72%。 点评： 氯化钾及铜价格 ...

Core Viewpoint - Cangge Mining reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, driven by substantial investment income from its stake in Xizang Julong Copper Industry Co., Ltd [1][2] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue increased by 28.71% year-on-year to 723 million yuan, while net profit rose by 66.49% to 951 million yuan [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue grew by 3.35% to 2.401 billion yuan, and net profit increased by 47.26% to 2.751 billion yuan [1] - Investment income received in cash amounted to 1.546 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 23924.99% year-on-year, primarily due to dividends from Xizang Julong Copper Industry [1] Business Segment Performance - In the potassium chloride segment, the company achieved 70.16% and 82.51% of its annual production and sales targets, respectively, with an average selling price (including tax) up by 26.88% and average sales cost down by 19.12%, resulting in a gross margin increase of 20.78% [1] - The company released approximately 80,000 tons of national reserve potassium chloride to meet market supply demands, leading to a sales volume exceeding production by about 82,200 tons [1] - In the lithium carbonate segment, the average selling price (including tax) decreased by 24.59%, while average sales cost increased by 2.98%, resulting in a gross margin decline of 18.42% [1] Investment in Subsidiaries - The company's stake in Julong Copper Industry yielded a copper production of 142,500 tons and sales of 142,400 tons, generating revenue of 11.821 billion yuan and net profit of 6.421 billion yuan [2] - Cangge Mining's investment income from Julong Copper was 1.950 billion yuan, accounting for 70.89% of the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the reporting period [2] - Julong Copper's investment income increased by 588 million yuan, a growth of 43.09% year-on-year [2] Project Developments - Significant progress was reported in the second phase expansion of the Julong Copper Mine, with successful trial runs of the second concentrator plant and safe completion of the main drainage tunnel for the tailings pond [2] - The company provided updates on key projects including the Mami Cuo Salt Lake project and the Laos potassium salt mine project, as well as the renewal of mining rights at the Chaharhan Salt Lake [2] Stock Performance - As of October 16, 2025, Cangge Mining's stock price was 57.39 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of approximately 90.1 billion yuan [2] - The company's stock has seen a cumulative increase of about 114.7% since the beginning of 2025 [2]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Overweight [1] Core Views - The chemical sector showed a weekly performance ranking of 8th with a gain of 1.99%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.63 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 5.85 percentage points [4][22]. - The chemical industry is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector's overall performance for the week of October 9-10, 2025, was a gain of 1.99%, ranking 8th among sectors [22]. - The top three performing sub-sectors were phosphate and phosphorus chemicals (6.26%), titanium dioxide (4.23%), and oil and petrochemical trade (4.23%) [23]. Key Industry Dynamics - Synthetic biology is at a pivotal moment, with low-energy products expected to gain a longer growth window due to the adjustment of energy structures [4]. - The upcoming quota policy for third-generation refrigerants is anticipated to enter a high prosperity cycle, with demand expected to grow steadily due to market expansion in Southeast Asia [5]. - The electronic specialty gases market is characterized by high technical barriers and high added value, with significant opportunities for domestic substitution [6][8]. - The trend of light hydrocarbon chemicals is becoming global, with a shift towards lighter raw materials for olefin production [8]. - The COC polymer industry is accelerating its domestic industrialization process, driven by supply chain security concerns and the shift of downstream industries to domestic production [9]. - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as major producers reduce output and the demand for fertilizers increases due to rising grain prices [10]. - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure expected as demand gradually recovers [12].

Group 1: Potash Industry - China is the largest potash fertilizer demand country globally, with a supply shortage and an import dependency exceeding 60% [1][2] - In 2024, China's potassium chloride production is expected to be 5.5 million tons, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, while imports are projected to reach 12.633 million tons, an increase of 9.1%, marking a historical high [1][2] - As of September 2025, domestic potassium chloride port inventory stands at 1.7292 million tons, down 1.356 million tons year-on-year, a decline of 43.95% [1][2] - The domestic potassium chloride market price slightly decreased in September, with an average price of 3,237 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decline of 1.43% but a year-on-year increase of 34.82% [2] Group 2: Phosphate Industry - The phosphate chemical industry is influenced by the price of phosphate rock, which is expected to maintain a high price level due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs [3] - The market price for 30% grade phosphate rock has remained above 900 yuan/ton for over two years, with current prices at 1,040 yuan/ton in Hubei and 970 yuan/ton in Yunnan [3] - The price difference between domestic and international phosphate fertilizers remains high, with significant price disparities benefiting companies with export quotas [3] Group 3: Pesticide Industry - The pesticide sector is experiencing a downturn, but demand is increasing due to rising grain planting areas in South America, leading to strong replenishment demand [4] - The price of glyphosate has been rising since April, reaching 27,700 yuan/ton by October 14, an increase of 4,500 yuan/ton or 19.40% [4] - The pesticide industry is expected to see a recovery as demand improves and industry consolidation efforts take effect [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For potash, the company recommends focusing on resource-scarce firms like Yara International, with projected production of 2.8 million tons in 2025 and 4 million tons in 2026 [4] - In the phosphate sector, companies with rich phosphate reserves such as Yuntianhua and Xingfa Group are highlighted as key investment opportunities [4] - In the pesticide sector, companies like Yangnong Chemical and Lier Chemical are recommended for their growth potential and market position [5]

Group 1: Pesticide Industry Insights - Current pesticide prices and stocks are at relatively low levels, with increasing demand driven by expanding grain planting areas in South America [1] - Strong replenishment demand is expected during the peak season due to previous low inventory strategies by downstream buyers [1] - The pesticide industry is entering the end of its second expansion phase, with capital expenditure growth having turned negative for five consecutive quarters [1] - The industry is anticipated to see an overall price increase due to demand-driven factors and actions against internal competition [1] Group 2: Potash Market Dynamics - China, as the largest potash consumer globally, faces a tight supply-demand balance, with over 60% import dependency [1] - Domestic production of potassium chloride is projected to decrease by 2.7% to 5.5 million tons in 2024, while imports are expected to rise by 9.1% to 12.633 million tons, reaching a historical high [1] - Domestic potassium chloride port inventory has decreased by 43.95% year-on-year, indicating a significant reduction in stock levels [1] - The average market price for potassium chloride in September was 3,237 RMB/ton, reflecting a 1.43% month-on-month decline but a 34.82% year-on-year increase [1] Group 3: Phosphate Industry Overview - The profitability of the phosphate chemical industry is closely linked to the price trends of phosphate rock, which is expected to maintain a high price level due to declining ore grades and increasing extraction costs [2] - The domestic supply-demand situation for phosphate rock is tightening, with the market price for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining above 900 RMB/ton for over two years [2] - As of September 29, 2025, the price for 30% grade phosphate rock in Hubei was 1,040 RMB/ton, while in Yunnan it was 970 RMB/ton, both stable compared to the previous month [2] Group 4: Phosphate Fertilizer Export Dynamics - The export policy for phosphate fertilizers in 2025 continues to emphasize domestic priority, with a reduction in export quotas compared to the previous year [3] - The price difference between domestic and international phosphate fertilizers remains significant, benefiting companies with export quotas [3] - As of September 30, the price difference for monoammonium phosphate between the Baltic FOB price and the Hubei market was approximately 1,370 RMB/ton, while for diammonium phosphate it was about 1,409 RMB/ton [3]