铀市新周期：价格动能、供需重构与全球战略储备展望？ 20260129 摘要 全球铀矿供应受限，未来 5-10 年部分矿山可能枯竭，新增产能短期难 以弥补，而中国核电发展及全球核电机组增加推升需求，导致供需失衡， 是铀价上涨的根本原因。 铀价上涨与资本市场活跃相关，类似于 2006-2007 年大宗商品同步上 涨趋势。美国政府对核能的政策信号及各国对能源安全的重视也推升了 铀价。 长期来看，全球低于 130 美元/磅成本的铀资源储量充足，长期维持 100 美元以上高价困难。短期内，资本市场活跃及多种利好因素叠加可 能推高现货价格，但难以持续。 现货交易量相对较小，长期合同交易量更大。长协价格受供需双方谈判 和政治因素影响，可能与现货价格倒挂，咨询公司数据获取困难和稳定 报价策略也可能导致长协价失真。 美国关键矿产战略储备处于提案阶段，若通过市场采购铀，将挤压市场 价格；若增加国内产能，影响较小。战略储备规模较大，需 5 年以上时 间才能达到。 Q&A 最近天然铀价格上涨的主要原因是什么？未来价格走势如何？ 最近天然铀价格上涨的主要原因可以归结为以下几点： 中国核电厂倾向于签订长期合同，目前至 2030 年的需求 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Views - The report highlights that the average cost of inventory is higher than the international trade sales price, leading to increased losses in trading operations. The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was HKD 1.709 billion, a decrease of 58.4% year-on-year, primarily due to falling uranium prices and reduced international trade delivery volumes. The net loss attributable to shareholders was HKD 68 million, a year-on-year increase of 159.7% [1][9]. - Uranium production met expectations, with a total extraction of 1,351 tons of uranium (tU) in the first half of 2025, a 1.2% increase year-on-year. However, the international trade business experienced a price inversion due to the company's inventory accounting method [2][11]. - The report expresses optimism about future uranium price trends, citing a tightening supply-demand situation and expectations of a rebound in uranium prices supported by global nuclear power recovery [3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of HKD 1.709 billion, down 58.4% year-on-year, and a net loss of HKD 68 million, reflecting a significant decline in trading profits due to high inventory costs [1][9]. - The average production cost for uranium was USD 26.69 per pound U3O8, while the average sales price was USD 71.07 per pound U3O8, leading to losses in the trading segment [2][11]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in uranium prices due to a combination of supply constraints and increasing demand from the global nuclear power sector. The new long-term sales agreements are expected to support future revenue growth [3][12][13]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecast has been adjusted downward, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 revised to HKD 480 million, HKD 950 million, and HKD 1.09 billion, respectively. The corresponding year-on-year growth rates are projected at 39%, 99%, and 14.4% [4][5].