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硅铁:市场偏向基本面,偏弱震荡,锰硅:市场偏向基本面,偏弱震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 02:36
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The manganese - silicon market is biased towards fundamentals and shows a weak and volatile trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Silicon iron futures (2509: closing price 5500, down 210; 2510: closing price 5500, down 188). Manganese - silicon futures (2509: closing price 5842, down 184; 2510: closing price 5850, down 180) [1]. - Silicon iron trading volume (2509: 44,328; 2510: 80,527). Manganese - silicon trading volume (2509: 193,093; 2510: 55,950) [1]. - Silicon iron open interest (2509: 41,200; 2510: 62,082). Manganese - silicon open interest (2509: 114,885; 2510: 59,820) [1]. - **Spot Data**: - Silicon iron (FeSi75 - B, Inner Mongolia) price is 5400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. Silicon - manganese (FeMn65Si17, Inner Mongolia) price is 5800 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1]. - Manganese ore (Mn44 block) price is 40.0 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.2 yuan/ton - degree. Lanthanum charcoal (small material, Shenmu) price is 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spread Data**: - Silicon iron (spot - 09 futures) basis is - 100 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton. Manganese - silicon (spot - 09 futures) basis is - 42 yuan/ton, up 164 yuan/ton [1]. - Silicon iron 2509 - 2601 nearby - far - month spread is - 152 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton. Manganese - silicon 2509 - 2601 nearby - far - month spread is - 72 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton [1]. - Manganese - silicon 2509 - silicon iron 2509 cross - variety spread is 342 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton. Manganese - silicon 2601 - silicon iron 2601 cross - variety spread is 262 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Silicon Iron Price**: On August 19, 72 silicon iron prices in different regions were: Shaanxi 5350 - 5450 yuan/ton, Ningxia 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton (down 50), Qinghai 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton, Gansu 5450 - 5550 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton. 75 silicon iron prices in different regions were: Shaanxi 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton, Ningxia 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, Qinghai 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, Gansu 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton. Silicon iron FOB prices were: 72 1040 - 1060 dollars/ton, 75 1100 - 1130 dollars/ton [2]. - **Silicon - Manganese Price**: 6517 silicon - manganese northern offer was 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton, southern offer was 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton [2]. - **Manganese Ore Market**: The manganese ore market was generally stable with narrow fluctuations. In Tianjin Port, demand declined and the silicon - manganese futures market fell, cooling the market's bullish expectations. However, due to the increase in foreign market and steel tender prices and the expected demand in September, traders were reluctant to sell at low prices, limiting the price decline. The port trading atmosphere was stalemate. Tianjin Port semi - carbonate was quoted at 35, Gabon block at 40.5, South African medium - iron block at 36, South32 Australian block at 41, South African high - iron at 30. In Qinzhou Port, ore prices were generally stable, with previous high quotes回调. Semi - carbonate was quoted at 38, Gabon block at 41, South African medium - iron block at 37, South African high - iron at 31. Since the resumption of Australian ore shipments in June, the manganese ore inventory in Tianjin Port has slowly recovered. Last week, the inventory was 368 million tons, still lower than the average of the past three years, and the port inventory accumulation was lower than market expectations, providing some support for ore prices [2][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - Silicon iron trend intensity is - 1, and manganese - silicon trend intensity is - 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [4].