Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 2: Core View - On Friday, iron ore prices declined both during the day and in the night session. Although iron ore inventory continued to rise and approached 180 million tons, the inventory pressure was expected to be acceptable and would not drive the price down. The rigid demand for iron ore was unlikely to increase as the change in molten iron production was minimal approaching the holiday. It is expected that the lower limit of 750 for the iron ore futures main contract before the holiday would still serve as strong support. Traders were advised to hold light positions or be out of the market approaching the holiday [1] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Review - Iron ore prices declined on Friday and in the night session [1] Important Information - The China National Machinery Industry Federation predicted that the growth rate of the main indicators of the machinery industry in 2026 would be around 5.5% [1] - The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in January 2026 was 51%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The China Construction Machinery Association reported that the operating rate of excavators in China in January 2026 was 48.6% [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills across the country was 103.1664 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.4805 million tons. The daily consumption of imported iron ore by the sampled steel mills was 282,240 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,290 tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 36.55 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 days [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 179.1468 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.5642 million tons; the total inventory at 45 ports was 171.4071 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1845 million tons [1] - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.53%, a week - on - week increase of 0.53 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 2.2858 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.006 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.0014 million tons [1] Market Logic - The current daily molten iron output was 2.2858 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.006 million tons. As the holiday approached, the change in molten iron production was minimal, so the rigid demand for iron ore was unlikely to increase. Iron ore inventory continued to rise and approached 180 million tons. After comprehensively analyzing the inventory structure, it was expected that the inventory pressure was acceptable and would not drive the price down [1] Trading Strategy - It was expected that the lower limit of 750 for the iron ore futures main contract before the holiday would still serve as strong support. Traders were advised to hold light positions or be out of the market approaching the holiday [1]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Night trading saw significant declines in coking coal, and steel prices followed suit, maintaining a downward trend. Demand remains weak in the off - season. After the September 3rd parade, logistics resumed, which is conducive to demand release. In August, the supply - demand gap widened, and inventory increased significantly. Entering September - October, there is an expectation of seasonal strengthening in demand. If the apparent demand recovers, the supply - demand gap will narrow, and inventory accumulation will slow down. Currently, steel prices have fallen from high levels. For trading strategies, the space for unilateral short - selling is limited, and selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered. Given the significant contraction in steel mill profits and the expected reduction in coking coal production, going long on the steel - to - iron ore ratio can be considered [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Most steel prices decreased slightly. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3240 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coils decreased from 3312 yuan/ton to 3310 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 3303 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3180 yuan/ton. Profits of most steel products decreased, such as the East China rebar profit decreased by 23 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.7 to 240.1 (a 0.3% decline), while the output of five major steel products increased by 6.5 to 884.6 (a 0.7% increase). The inventory of five major steel products increased by 26.8 to 1467.9 (a 1.9% increase) [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials transaction volume decreased by 1.7 to 8.2 (a 17.0% decline), while the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 4.8 to 857.8 (a 0.6% increase) [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As of the close of trading yesterday afternoon, the iron ore 2601 contract showed an oscillating rebound trend. Fundamentally, the global shipping volume of iron ore increased significantly to a high for the year, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. On the demand side, steel mill profit margins are at a relatively high level. After the parade, Tangshan quickly resumed production, and pig iron output will rebound rapidly. Looking ahead, the impact of the parade - related production restrictions is limited, and there is currently no strong driving force for a significant increase. The demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" is questionable. For trading strategies, the unilateral trend is regarded as range - bound, with a reference range of 750 - 810, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of most iron ore varieties increased slightly. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines increased by 8.8 to 807.7 (a 1.1% increase). The basis of most varieties for the 01 contract increased significantly, such as the 01 - contract basis of Carajás fines increased by 33.8 to 30.7 (a 1102.2% increase) [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 132.7 to 2526.0 (a 5.5% increase), and the global weekly shipping volume increased by 241.0 to 3556.8 (a 7.3% increase). The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6 to 240.1 (a 0.2% decline) [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 13776.51 (a 0.1% increase), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 58.3 to 9007.2 (a 0.6% decline) [3]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As of the close of trading yesterday afternoon, both coke and coking coal futures showed an oscillating weakening trend. For coking coal, the spot auction price is stable to weak, and the supply - demand situation has eased. For coke, the spot price has stabilized after a price increase, and the supply will gradually become more abundant. The impact of short - term production restrictions is limited. For trading strategies, it is recommended to hold existing short positions and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke or coking coal [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of most coke and coking coal contracts decreased slightly. For example, the 01 - contract price of coke decreased from 1597 yuan/ton to 1594 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract price of coking coal decreased from 1113 yuan/ton to 1106 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The weekly output of coke decreased, and the weekly output of coking coal decreased due to mine accidents and production suspension for rectification but is expected to recover. The weekly pig iron output decreased but is expected to rebound rapidly after the parade [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: Coke inventories in coking plants, ports, and steel mills increased slightly, while coking coal inventories in mines, ports, and some intermediate links increased, and inventories in washing plants, coking plants, and steel mills decreased slightly [6].