1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market fluctuated downward before the Spring Festival due to limited macro - level support, high iron ore inventory, and high coking coal imports. After the Spring Festival, affected by the US - Iran war, energy costs were expected to rise, and steel costs increased, leading to a rebound in the black - related market. Currently, steel is in the de - stocking phase, with overall inventory normal but high in East China and high warehouse receipts. If demand does not recover beyond the seasonal norm, it may put pressure on the market [2]. - For the second - quarter market, there is suppression from the steel's own supply - demand situation, and there is also the real pressure of continuous increase in overall raw material supply. Support mainly comes from the uncertainty of raw materials. Overall volatility may be relatively limited, and the downward space at the current position is greater than the upward space [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In the first quarter, the steel market first declined and then rose. As of March 27, the quarterly lines of the 05 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils were basically flat, with a quarterly fluctuation range of less than 200 yuan/ton. The raw material end had relatively larger fluctuations, with the main iron ore contract rising 2.9% quarterly, coke rising 3.5%, and coking coal rising 9.3% [6]. - Before the Spring Festival, the market fluctuated downward. After the Spring Festival, affected by the US - Iran war, energy costs were expected to rise, and steel costs increased, leading to a rebound [6]. 3.2 Monetary and Social Financing - The growth rates of M1 and M2 rebounded, and the M1 - M2 spread rose again but remained in the negative range. - The growth rate of social financing continued to decline, and the spread between social financing and M2 remained in the negative range, indicating that social investment willingness was still low [9]. 3.3 Price Index - In February, the CPI was 1.3% and the PPI was - 0.9%. - The manufacturing PMI in February was 49, a 0.3 - point decrease from the previous month. - Prices were generally recovering moderately, deflation pressure was gradually easing, and the manufacturing prosperity was still average [12]. 3.4 Steel Monthly Data - In 2025, the crude steel output was 961 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%; the pig iron output decreased by 3% year - on - year [13]. 3.5 Five - Major Steel Products Weekly Data - As of March 27, 2026, the total output of the five - major steel products was 839,580 tons, a decrease of 0.24% compared to the previous week, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.89%. The total consumption was 888,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons compared to the previous week, and a year - on - year decrease of 3.29%. The total inventory was 1.898 million tons, a decrease of 48,390 tons compared to the previous week, and a year - on - year increase of 9.21% [14]. 3.6 Steel Production - After the Two Sessions, steel mills entered the resumption phase, but the current output of the five - major steel products is still lower than the same period in previous years, which may reflect the structural changes in steel products in recent years [17]. 3.7 Steel Production Profit - Steel mills generally maintained positive profits, with rebar profits better than hot - rolled coil profits, especially in North China. - The profit of electric arc furnaces using off - peak electricity fluctuated around the break - even line in the new year and is currently in a state of slight profit [18]. 3.8 Steel Demand - The overall demand for the five - major steel products has rebounded rapidly and is higher than the same period last year, mainly contributed by cold - rolled coils and medium - thick plates. The sales volume of building materials is still at a low level [36]. 3.9 Real Estate - From January to February, real estate investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year, and the new construction area decreased by 23.1% [42]. - Since 2026, the sales of commercial housing and land transactions have remained weak. The cumulative year - on - year decrease in the sales area of 30 - city commercial housing is 17%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in the land transaction area of 100 cities is 4.6% [45]. 3.10 Fixed - Asset Investment - In 2025, fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year. - From January to February 2026, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, infrastructure investment increased by 11.4%, and manufacturing investment growth was 3.1% [50]. 3.11 Steel Export - In 2025, steel exports reached 119 million tons, the highest in history. - From January to February 2026, steel exports were 15.59 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%. The steel export license system will restrict the practice of buying export orders, and steel exports may face a phased reduction [64]. 3.12 Steel Inventory - Rebar inventory is normal overall, but the inventory in East China is relatively high. - Hot - rolled coil inventory is generally high, and the de - stocking in East China is a bit slow [68][71]. 3.13 Basis and Spread - Rebar basis was high before the Spring Festival and then declined. It is still at a high level compared to the same period in the past five years. The high inventory in East China and the general demand recovery speed put pressure on spot de - stocking, and the basis is gradually weakening. The 10 - contract basis will continue to shrink [80]. - Hot - rolled coil basis was strong first and then weak in the first quarter, with a relatively small overall fluctuation range. It is currently at a low level compared to the same period, and the high inventory exerts pressure. The space for further weakening is relatively limited [89]. - Rebar monthly spread maintained a contango structure in the first quarter and strengthened overall. It is currently around - 30. The high inventory in East China may suppress the monthly spread, and the 10 - 1 monthly spread may not strengthen in the short term. There may be a chance of a phased increase after the inventory de - stocking accelerates in the second quarter [94]. - Hot - rolled coil monthly spread strengthened from around - 20 to near 0 in the first quarter. The slow de - stocking of East China's spot will limit the space for the monthly spread to continue strengthening. The 10 - 1 monthly spread of hot - rolled coil strengthened in the first quarter and is currently near par. If it drops below - 20 in the second quarter, a positive arbitrage can be considered [99]. 3.14 Warehouse Receipts - Rebar warehouse receipts have increased rapidly recently, indicating that the spot sales pressure is still large under the positive basis in East China. - Hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts are at the highest level in recent years and are still increasing. It may put pressure on the market after entering the delivery logic [110]. 3.15 Iron Ore and Coking Coal - Since this year, the shipping volume and arrival volume of iron ore have been relatively high, showing a year - on - year increase. - Iron ore inventory increased significantly in the first quarter. Although there has been de - stocking recently, the absolute level is still as high as 170 million tons, the highest in the same period. Among them, the inventory of domestic iron ore is significantly high, reaching 113 million tons [113][116]. - Coking coal production rebounded rapidly after the Spring Festival and has now exceeded the same period last year. Coking coal imports remain at the highest level in the same period [118]. - The total coking coal inventory is similar to the same period last year and has rebounded recently. The upstream mine inventory has decreased recently, indicating that the inventory is shifting from upstream to downstream [120][121].

Report Title - Black Series Weekly Report - Steel [2] Report Date - March 27, 2026 [2] Researcher Information - Researcher: Li Haixiao, Trading Consultation: Z0019568; Reviewer: Tang Yun, Z0002422 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased month-on-month, but the growth rate narrowed. The growth of apparent demand for rebar, hot-rolled coils, and wire rods provided positive drivers for the growth of the five major steel products' apparent demand. In terms of varieties, the apparent demand for rebar, wire rods, and hot-rolled coils increased month-on-month. The decrease in rebar production and inventory contributed significantly to the growth of apparent demand. Wire rods had strong supply and demand. The increase in the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils was mainly due to the increase in production, while inventory had a negative impact. Current data shows that building materials are stronger than the manufacturing industry, and hot-rolled coils are stronger than cold-rolled and medium-thick plates. Overall, the market is in a volatile state. The rebar 2610 contract and the hot-rolled coil 2610 contract are both in a volatile state [6] Summary by Directory 1. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - **Production Data**: In February 2026, the pig iron output was 7,529.40 million tons, with a month-on-month change of 0.00% and a year-on-year change of 3.10%. The crude steel output was 8,601.90 million tons, with a month-on-month change of 0.00% and a year-on-year change of 4.60%. The steel output was 13,442.14 million tons, with a month-on-month change of 0.00% and a year-on-year change of 8.30%. The global crude steel output was 16,610.00 million tons, with a month-on-month change of -4.43% and a year-on-year change of -2.76% [12] - **Consumption Data**: In February 2026, the apparent consumption of crude steel was 6,575.92 million tons, with a month-on-month change of -3.79% and a year-on-year change of 8.87%. The apparent consumption of steel was 10,999.67 million tons, with a month-on-month change of -0.01% and a year-on-year change of 8.44%. The total steel consumption was 2,214.90 million tons, with a month-on-month growth of 6.17% and a year-on-year growth of 9.15%. The total steel consumption (excluding exports) was 1,254.91 million tons, with a month-on-month growth of -55.93% and a year-on-year growth of 9.35% [13] 2. Downstream Macroeconomic Demand - **Real Estate**: The real estate and infrastructure steel consumption showed a downward trend. In February 2026, the real estate and infrastructure steel consumption was 809.03 million tons, with a month-on-month growth of 1.93% and a year-on-year growth of -10.25% [13] - **Manufacturing**: The manufacturing steel consumption showed a relatively stable trend. In February 2026, the manufacturing steel consumption was 1,806.00 million tons, with a month-on-month growth of 1.43% and a year-on-year growth of -1.61% [13] - **Total Steel Consumption**: The total steel consumption showed a certain degree of volatility. In February 2026, the total steel consumption was 3,399.03 million tons, with a month-on-month growth of 4.59% and a year-on-year growth of -6.31% [13] - **Exports**: Exports (including billets) showed a downward trend. In February 2026, the export volume was 784.00 million tons, with a month-on-month growth of -12.01% [13] 3. Industry Fundamentals - **Supply**: The production of the five major steel products showed a slight decrease. In February 2026, the production of the five major steel products decreased by 0.03% month-on-month and 3.44% year-on-year. The production of rebar decreased by 2.69% month-on-month and 13% year-on-year. The production of hot-rolled coils increased by 1.8% month-on-month and decreased by 5.89% year-on-year [8] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the five major steel products decreased. In February 2026, the total inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 2.49% month-on-month and increased by 9.21% year-on-year. The total inventory of rebar decreased by 3.09% month-on-month and increased by 5.23% year-on-year. The total inventory of hot-rolled coils decreased by 1.74% month-on-month and increased by 14.47% year-on-year [8] - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased. In February 2026, the apparent demand of the five major steel products increased by 2.24% month-on-month and decreased by 3.46% year-on-year. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 8.3% month-on-month and decreased by 8.13% year-on-year. The apparent demand of hot-rolled coils increased by 1% month-on-month and decreased by 7.4% year-on-year [8] 4. Price - **Basis**: The basis of rebar and hot-rolled coils showed certain changes. For rebar, the basis of the 01 contract was 21 (40), the 05 contract was 72 (95), and the 10 contract was 42 (67). For hot-rolled coils, the basis of the 01 contract was -37 (-60), the 05 contract was -25 (-42), and the 10 contract was -33 (-47) [8] - **Term Structure**: The term structure of rebar and hot-rolled coils also showed certain characteristics. The term structure of rebar and hot-rolled coils was presented graphically in the report [99][102] - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of rebar and hot-rolled coils showed certain fluctuations. For rebar, the 1 - 5 spread was 51 (56), the 5 - 10 spread was -30 (-28), and the 10 - 01 spread was -21 (-31). For hot-rolled coils, the 1 - 5 spread was 12 (18), the 5 - 10 spread was -8 (-5), and the 10 - 01 spread was -4 (-13) [8] - **Coil-Rebar Spread**: The coil-rebar spread of different contracts showed different trends. The 01 contract was 138 (130), the 05 contract was 177 (167), and the 10 contract was 155 (144) [8] 5. Warehouse Receipts - The report presented the warehouse receipts of rebar and hot-rolled coils from 2020 to 2026 graphically [131][133]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In terms of supply and demand, steel production continued to rise this week. Rebar production was similar to the same period last year, while hot-rolled coil production was at a low level. Construction steel demand recovered at a similar pace to last year, hot-rolled coil demand was weak, and cold-rolled coil and medium-thick plate demand were at the highest levels for the same period, showing strong demand resilience. Steel inventories decreased slightly and entered the destocking phase, but rebar inventories in East China were high, and the hot-rolled coil warehouse receipt volume was at the highest level for the same period. The overall fundamental contradictions in the steel market were not obvious, and the driving force was not strong. Pig iron production recovered significantly, supporting raw material demand. Geopolitical disturbances continued, and the problem of available iron ore resources remained unresolved, providing some support at the cost end [2]. - From the perspective of driving factors, the basis of rebar is bullish, while that of hot-rolled coil is bearish. Although steel mill profits are not high, they are generally acceptable, and there is an expectation of continued resumption of production, so the supply side will continue to increase. Real estate and infrastructure investment data are weak, while the demand for cold-rolled and medium-thick plates is strong, and the differentiation continues. The destocking slope driven by the overall demand recovery speed of steel in the later stage is crucial. At the same time, the raw material side is greatly affected by non-supply and demand disturbances, providing support. Currently, the black market still lacks strong driving forces, and the trading logic may shift to actual supply and demand in the later stage. It is advisable to sell spot steel at high prices or hedge at an appropriate time [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Monthly Data - In December 2025, the monthly production of pig iron was 60720,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%; the cumulative production was 137,700,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%. The monthly production of crude steel was 68180,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%; the cumulative production was 160,340,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%. The monthly production of steel was 115,310,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%; the cumulative production was 221,190,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%. Steel imports were 370,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 33.5%; the cumulative imports were 830,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 21.7%. Steel exports were 7840,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%; the cumulative exports were 15,590,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% [4]. Five Major Steel Products Weekly Data - As of March 20, 2026, the weekly production of rebar was 2,033,300 tons, an increase of 80,300 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 7%; consumption was 2,080,900 tons, an increase of 312,800 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 10%; inventory was 8,894,100 tons, a decrease of 47,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.26%. The weekly production of wire rod was 805,800 tons, an increase of 30,100 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year change of 0%; consumption was 850,000 tons, an increase of 155,700 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2%; inventory was 1,928,600 tons, a decrease of 40,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%. The weekly production of hot-rolled coil was 3,002,100 tons, an increase of 49,500 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 5%; consumption was 3,105,100 tons, an increase of 151,500 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 5%; inventory was 4,612,900 tons, a decrease of 103,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13%. The weekly production of cold-rolled coil was 888,500 tons, an increase of 5,800 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.22%; consumption was 946,100 tons, an increase of 34,100 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 2.81%; inventory was 1,830,800 tons, a decrease of 57,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.81%. The weekly production of medium-thick plate was 1,668,500 tons, an increase of 22,800 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4.32%; consumption was 1,706,000 tons, an increase of 49,900 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 4.24%; inventory was 2,195,900 tons, a decrease of 37,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.75%. The total weekly production of the five major steel products was 8,398,200 tons, an increase of 188,500 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.86%; total consumption was 8,680,000 tons, an increase of 700,000 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 3.24%; total inventory was 19,460,000 tons, a decrease of 286,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.84% [5]. Steel Production Profit - On March 19, 2026, the profit of rebar from blast furnaces in East China was 110, a decrease of 18; the profit of rebar from electric furnaces using off-peak electricity was 31, a decrease of 2; the profit of rebar from electric furnaces using normal electricity was -90, a decrease of 2; the profit of hot-rolled coil from blast furnaces was 62, a decrease of 8. In North China, the profit of rebar from blast furnaces was 80, a decrease of 10; the profit of rebar from electric furnaces using off-peak electricity was 0, with no change; the profit of rebar from electric furnaces using normal electricity was -84, with no change; the profit of hot-rolled coil from blast furnaces was -34, an increase of 2. In Central China, the profit of rebar from blast furnaces was 175, with no change; the profit of rebar from electric furnaces using off-peak electricity was -10, with no change; the profit of rebar from electric furnaces using normal electricity was -142, with no change; the profit of hot-rolled coil from blast furnaces was 85, with no change [20]. Steel Demand - Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative year-on-year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium-sized cities compared with the same period last year was 19%, and the cumulative year-on-year increase in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 1.4% [27]. - In 2025, China's steel exports to Iran were only 270,000 tons, which can be ignored, but exports to the seven Gulf countries were about 14,000,000 tons, accounting for about 11.7% of China's total steel exports. Due to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, China's steel export orders and shipments to this region have been affected. Therefore, the war has a negative impact on China's steel exports in the short term, but if the war continues, the local steel shortage may need to be filled by China, which will form an indirect benefit. From January to February this year, steel exports decreased by 8% year-on-year [35]. Steel Inventory and Basis - The rebar basis rebounded slightly this week and was still slightly higher year-on-year. Currently, rebar production and apparent demand are similar to the same period last year, and there are price increases for certain specifications in some areas. This week, rebar entered the destocking phase, but the inventory in Hangzhou was still at the highest level for the same period, facing certain destocking pressure, and the room for the basis to strengthen was limited [49]. - The hot-rolled coil basis fluctuated at a low level this week. The hot-rolled coil inventory was high, and the warehouse receipts were at a high level for the same period, suppressing the basis. However, the basis has now fallen to a low level for the same period, and the room for further weakening is limited [53]. - The 5 - 10 month spread of rebar fluctuated little this week. During the destocking phase, the month spread tends to weaken. At the same time, the inventory level in Hangzhou is high, and the month spread may run weakly in the later stage [59]. - The 5 - 10 month spread of hot-rolled coil strengthened slightly, and the room for further strengthening is limited under the pressure of warehouse receipts and destocking [61].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand situation of steel has improved, and steel prices will follow raw materials. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, steel supply - demand is expected to improve, but inventory pressure remains a key factor restricting steel prices. The price will follow raw material fluctuations in the short term, and the de - stocking situation in the peak season and raw material price changes should be monitored later [1]. - Iron ore prices will maintain a volatile operation in the short term. As steel mills resume production, iron ore supply and demand contradictions have not further intensified, and high inventory will continue to suppress price performance in the long term. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation, non - mainstream iron ore shipments, iron ore inventory, and negotiation progress [3]. - The supply - demand of coking coal and coke is relatively balanced, and prices will run in a volatile manner. After the Two Sessions, coal mine production has gradually resumed, and the supply of coking coal has increased. Coke enterprises and steel mills are gradually resuming production, and the supply - demand contradiction is limited. The impact of the Middle East situation on coal prices should be noted later [5][6]. - The supply - demand of thermal coal has weakened, and coal prices are under short - term pressure. Coal supply has increased after the Two Sessions, while consumption has weakened due to seasonality. The impact of non - power coal consumption and restocking should be focused on later [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Steel futures prices fluctuated, and domestic steel market prices showed mixed trends. The trading volume of construction steel rebounded, with 10130 tons of national building materials traded. Due to the early implementation of fiscal policies, infrastructure and manufacturing investment improved from January to February [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of steel is limited. Building materials maintain a situation of weak supply and demand, and inventory is slightly higher than the same period. Plate production is relatively high, and demand is also resilient, but inventory pressure is greater than that of building materials. With the arrival of the peak season, supply - demand is expected to improve, but inventory pressure restricts price increases. The Middle East situation indirectly supports the bottom of steel prices. Steel prices will follow raw material fluctuations in the short term [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices fluctuated weakly. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports fluctuated slightly. Steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. Global iron ore shipments increased slightly, with a total of 30.49 million tons, a 5.2% month - on - month increase. The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased significantly, with a total of 22.15 million tons, a 15.1% month - on - month decrease [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Global iron ore shipments increased week - on - week. High ore prices have continuously stimulated supply, but the actual supply pressure has eased. As steel mills end production restrictions, hot metal output will increase. The supply - demand contradiction has not further intensified in the short term, and high inventory will continue to suppress prices in the long term [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The price of raw coal in the production area was relatively stable, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was about 1100 yuan/ton, showing a month - on - month increase. The cost of coking coal for furnaces increased, and coking profits were acceptable due to the rebound of chemical product prices [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: After the Two Sessions, coal mines in the production area gradually resumed production, and the customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained at a high level. The overall supply of coking coal increased. Coke enterprises and steel mills are gradually resuming production, and the supply - demand contradiction is limited. Prices will remain stable in the short term [6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: The price of thermal coal in the main production areas fluctuated weakly, and the port price showed a downward trend. Coal supply in the production area increased steadily, and some terminal restocking demand was released. Port inventory continued to increase, while downstream demand was weak due to the approaching off - season. The import cost increased, and the price difference between domestic and foreign trade widened [8]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Coal supply increased after the Two Sessions, while consumption weakened due to seasonality. Coal prices will fluctuate weakly in the short term. The impact of non - power coal consumption and restocking should be focused on later [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price maintained a volatile trend today, rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon. The overall spot trading volume of steel was average, with most purchases at low futures and spot prices. This week, the output of the five major steel products increased slightly, with rebar production continuing to increase and hot-rolled coil production decreasing. Steel mills are still in the mode of shutdown and maintenance, and it is expected that the molten iron output will continue to decline this week. Recently, downstream demand has seasonally rebounded, and the demand performance is acceptable, but the inventory is still accumulating rapidly. Among them, the inventory of rebar is accumulating at a faster rate, while the hot-rolled coil has started to destock this week. Recently, the capital availability of downstream construction sites across the country has improved, but the resumption of work and capital situation are still weaker than in previous years. Recently, the export orders have been performing well, which has improved the supply and demand of hot-rolled coils, but the overall inventory level is still high, and there is pressure on supply and demand. However, recently, the geopolitical friction overseas has increased, and the energy prices and shipping freight rates have continued to rise. If the friction intensifies in the future, it may drive up the raw material costs of steel. After the market closed, there was news that the sales of Newman powder were blocked, which may affect the subsequent iron ore supply. Therefore, the steel price will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend in the short term. In the future, attention still needs to be paid to the molten iron production situation, downstream demand performance, and overseas geopolitical frictions [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Rebar Futures**: The prices of RB05, RB10, and RB01 increased by 5 yuan/ton, 5 yuan/ton, and 4 yuan/ton respectively compared to yesterday. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as RB01 - RB05 decreased by 1 yuan/ton, and RB10 - RB01 increased by 1 yuan/ton. The disk profits of 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 12 yuan/ton, 12 yuan/ton, and 15 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Rebar Spot**: The prices of rebar in various regions increased by 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the cheapest delivery product for 05, 10, and 01 contracts is 70 yuan/ton, 41 yuan/ton, and 16 yuan/ton respectively. The regional price differences remained mostly unchanged, and the spot profits in different regions also changed to varying degrees, such as the adjusted rolling profit increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the East China rebar profit increased by 5 yuan/ton [2]. - **Hot-rolled Coil Futures**: The prices of HC05, HC10, and HC01 increased by 6 yuan/ton, 6 yuan/ton, and 7 yuan/ton respectively compared to yesterday. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as HC01 - HC05 increased by 1 yuan/ton, and HC10 - HC01 decreased by 1 yuan/ton. The disk profits of 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 11 yuan/ton, 11 yuan/ton, and 12 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Hot-rolled Coil Spot**: The prices of hot-rolled coils in various regions increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis of the cheapest delivery product for 05, 10, and 01 contracts is -15 yuan/ton, -24 yuan/ton, and -39 yuan/ton respectively. The regional price differences remained mostly unchanged, and the spot profits in different regions also changed to varying degrees, such as the Tianjin hot-rolled coil profit increased by 19 yuan/ton, and the East China hot-rolled coil profit increased by 5 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3190 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3140 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3250 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3170 yuan (-) [5]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Follow the overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [7]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices, and continue to hold the short position of the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [7]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Important Information** - As of March 11 (the 23rd day of the first lunar month), the resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites across the country is 42.5%, a month-on-month increase of 19 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.2 percentage points in the lunar calendar; the labor attendance rate is 43.9%, a month-on-month increase of 14.2 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.8 percentage points in the lunar calendar; the capital availability rate is 42.8%, a month-on-month increase of 7.4 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points in the lunar calendar [9]. - On March 12, Minister of Justice He Rong stated at the third "Ministers' Passage" of the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress that this year's government legislation work will focus on several aspects, one of which is to optimize the business environment, formulate regulations for the construction of a unified national market, and address issues such as local protection, improper access conditions, and "involutionary" competition [10]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the base price of rebar and hot-rolled coil contracts in different periods, the price difference between contracts, the disk profit, the cash profit, and other data trends over the years [15][17][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Iron Ore**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Coke**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Coking Coal**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Silicomanganese**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Cautiously bullish [1] - **Glass**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Soda Ash**: Cautiously bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Thread Steel**: Demand is still weak year-on-year, molten iron production is rising month-on-month and higher than the same period in previous years, overall steel supply and demand are relatively loose, and weak reality exerts pressure. Domestic policy expectations are not strong, but the conflict between the US and Iran brings significant disturbances, and the short-term market may fluctuate repeatedly [1][4][5]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, inventory levels are high, supply and demand changes follow seasonal patterns, and the basis fluctuates narrowly around par. The weak reality of the steel market will continue to suppress the market in the medium term, and there is some pressure on supply and demand, but the conflict between the US and Iran brings disturbances, and the short-term market may fluctuate repeatedly [1][4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: Molten iron production has decreased significantly and is expected to rebound. Port inventories have accumulated, steel mills are consuming inventory and purchasing on demand, supply has decreased this period, and the fundamentals have improved. The negotiation on iron ore between China and Australia has escalated, which has pushed up ore prices in the short term. The sharp decline in the crude oil sector may put emotional pressure on the market, so operate with caution [1][8][9]. - **Coke**: Except for some coking enterprises in Hebei that have limited production, the operation in other regions has remained stable. During the Two Sessions, some steel mills' blast furnaces limited production, molten iron production decreased significantly in the short term, steel mills initiated the first round of price cuts, and the willingness to replenish inventory is insufficient. Short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, so operate with caution [1][12][13]. - **Coking Coal**: Domestic coal mines have resumed production intensively, and the average daily output of mines has continued to increase month-on-month. In terms of demand, molten iron production has decreased significantly month-on-month, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory is insufficient. Overall, supply and demand are becoming more relaxed, short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, so operate with caution [1][16][17]. - **Silicomanganese**: The operating rate in the production area remains low, demand has increased month-on-month, and inventory has decreased month-on-month. The quotes of some mainstream manganese mines in April continue to rise, providing strong support for the cost side. Short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, but its fundamentals and low valuation support the price to some extent [1][19][20]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Supply in the production area has decreased month-on-month, demand has increased month-on-month, and inventory has decreased month-on-month. A new round of steel tenders has been launched one after another, and attention should be paid to the quotes of mainstream steel mills. Short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, but its fundamentals and low valuation support the price to some extent [1][19][20]. - **Glass**: The real estate statements during the Two Sessions continue the previous policy orientation, production enterprises continue the seasonal inventory accumulation trend, the current fundamentals maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand, the daily melting volume is 148,500 tons, and in the face of weak demand, further reduction in supply is still needed to digest high inventory. Recent fluctuations in crude oil prices have intensified, and the market may fluctuate [1][23][24]. - **Soda Ash**: Factory inventory has reached a record high, and the upstream operating rate remains at a neutral level of 87% compared to the same period. Real estate demand continues to be weak, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic + float glass is 236,000 tons, and the demand for heavy soda ash lacks support. The rise in energy prices has led to an overall increase in costs, and there may be short-term fluctuations [1][27][28]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Thread Steel - **Price Information**: The latest prices of thread steel futures contracts 01, 05, and 10 are 3,174, 3,119, and 3,147 respectively, with price increases of 33, 31, and 32 respectively. The latest prices of spot thread steel in different regions such as Tangshan, Shanghai, and Hangzhou are 3,100, 3,220, and 3,290 respectively, with price increases of 40, 30, and 40 respectively [2]. - **Basis and Spread Information**: The latest basis of thread steel 01 in Shanghai is 46, with a decrease of 3; the latest basis of thread steel 05 in Shanghai is 101, with a decrease of 1; the latest basis of thread steel 10 in Shanghai is 73, with a decrease of 2. The latest spreads of RB 10 - 01, RB 01 - 05, and RB 05 - 10 are -27, 55, and -28 respectively, with changes of -1, 2, and -1 respectively [2]. Hot Rolled Coil - **Price Information**: The latest prices of hot rolled coil futures contracts 01, 05, and 10 are 3,291, 3,270, and 3,282 respectively, with price increases of 28, 40, and 38 respectively. The latest prices of spot hot rolled coil in different regions such as Tianjin, Shanghai, and Hangzhou are 3,180, 3,260, and 3,290 respectively, with price increases of 40, 30, and 50 respectively [2]. - **Basis and Spread Information**: The latest basis of hot rolled coil 01 in Shanghai is -31, with an increase of 2; the latest basis of hot rolled coil 05 in Shanghai is -10, with a decrease of 10; the latest basis of hot rolled coil 10 in Shanghai is -22, with a decrease of 8. The latest spreads of HC 10 - 01, HC 01 - 05, and HC 05 - 10 are -9, 21, and -12 respectively, with changes of 10, -12, and 2 respectively [2]. Iron Ore - **Price Information**: The latest prices of iron ore futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 741, 785, and 758 respectively, with price increases of 12, 13, and 12 respectively. The latest prices of PB powder, Yangdi powder, and BRBF powder are 773, 751, and 798 respectively, with price increases of 9, 11, and 0 respectively [6]. - **Basis and Spread Information**: The latest basis of PB powder for 01 is 83, with a decrease of 2; the latest basis of PB powder for 05 is 40, with a decrease of 3; the latest basis of PB powder for 09 is 66, with a decrease of 2. The latest spreads of i 01 - 05, i 05 - 09, and i 09 - 01 are -44, 27, and 17 respectively, with changes of -13, 1, and 12 respectively [6]. Coke - **Price Information**: The latest prices of coke futures contracts 1, 5, and 9 are 1,906.0, 1,740.0, and 1,803.5 respectively, with price increases of 50.5, 44.5, and 41.5 respectively. The latest prices of spot coke in different regions such as Lvliang, Rizhao, and Handan are 1,230, 1,470, and 1,370 respectively, with no price changes [11]. - **Weekly Data**: The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises is 74.0%, a decrease of 0.4%; the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 227.6 tons, a decrease of 5.7 tons; the daily average coke output of sample coking plants is 63.9 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons; the daily average coke output of 247 steel mills is 46.4 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants is 110.3 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 671.3 tons, a decrease of 3.9 tons; the inventory available days are 12.5 days, an increase of 0.1 day; the port coke inventory is 203.1 tons, an increase of 6.0 tons; the profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises is 17.0 yuan, an increase of 24.0 yuan [11]. Coking Coal - **Price Information**: The latest prices of coking coal futures contracts 1, 5, and 9 are 1,468.0, 1,168.0, and 1,251.5 respectively, with price increases of 42.0, 45.0, and 35.0 respectively. The latest prices of spot coking coal in different regions such as Lvliang, Gujiao, and Meng 5 are 1,310, 1,230, and 1,175 respectively, with no price changes [15]. - **Weekly Data**: The capacity utilization rate of sample coal washing plants is 26.6%, an increase of 3.8%; the daily average clean coal output of sample coal washing plants is 19.9 tons, an increase of 3.0 tons; the daily average coke output of sample coking plants is 50.4 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons; the daily average coke output of 247 steel mills is 47.0 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons; the coking coal inventory of sample coking plants is 796.2 tons, a decrease of 33.3 tons; the inventory available days are 11.9 days, a decrease of 0.4 days; the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills is 775.6 tons, a decrease of 16.8 tons; the inventory available days are 12.4 days, a decrease of 0.2 days; the total port coking coal inventory is 267.7 tons, a decrease of 4.3 tons [15]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Price Information**: The latest prices of ferrosilicon futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 5,960, 5,868, and 5,940 respectively, with price increases of 58, 0, and 22 respectively. The latest prices of silicomanganese futures contracts 01, 05, and 09 are 6,248, 6,132, and 6,184 respectively, with price increases of 26, 2, and 6 respectively. The latest prices of spot ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions have different price changes [18]. - **Weekly Data**: The operating rate of silicomanganese enterprises is 35.7%, an increase of 0.08%; the operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises is 26.55%, a decrease of 1.77%; the output of 187 silicomanganese enterprises is 195,860 tons, a decrease of 1,575 tons; the inventory of 63 silicomanganese enterprises is 387,300 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons; the output of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises is 96,500 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons; the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon enterprises is 66,280 tons, a decrease of 4,120 tons [18]. Glass - **Futures Market**: The latest closing prices of FG01, FG05 (main contract), and FG09 are 1,280, 1,104, and 1,211 respectively, with price increases of 25, 17, and 17 respectively. The main contract's trading volume is 368, an increase of 213.1; the main contract's open interest is 117, a decrease of 9.1 [22]. - **Spot Market and Industry Chain**: The latest prices of glass in different regions such as Hubei, China, and East China are 1,090, 1,137, and 1,230 respectively, with different price changes. The daily melting volume is 146,900 tons, a decrease of 0.16 tons; the inventory is 7,601 ten - thousand weight boxes, an increase of 2,066 ten - thousand weight boxes [22]. Soda Ash - **Futures Market**: The latest closing prices of SA01, SA05 (main contract), and SA09 are 1,358, 1,276, and 1,330 respectively, with price increases of 26, 34, and 31 respectively. The main contract's trading volume is 373, an increase of 233.8; the main contract's open interest is 109, a decrease of 5.9 [26]. - **Spot Market and Industry Chain**: The latest prices of soda ash in different regions such as Shahe, East China, and Central China are 1,260, 1,230, and 1,230 respectively, with different price changes. The operating rate is 0.0%, a decrease of 86.82%; the daily melting volume of photovoltaic + float glass is 89,000 tons, a decrease of 146,925 tons; the enterprise inventory is 189.4 tons, an increase of 30.64 tons [26].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously bearish**: Rebar, hot-rolled coil, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash [1] - **Cautiously bullish**: Iron ore, ferromanganese, ferrosilicon [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: Demand is still weak year-on-year, molten iron production is rising month-on-month and higher than the same period in previous years, and the overall supply and demand of steel are relatively loose. The high supply of raw materials and weak reality exert pressure. Domestic policy expectations are not strong, but the conflict between the US and Iran brings significant disturbances, and the short-term market may fluctuate repeatedly [1][4][5] - **Hot-rolled coil**: Production and apparent demand are relatively stable, the absolute inventory level is high, supply and demand changes conform to seasonal characteristics, and the basis fluctuates narrowly around par. The weak reality of the steel market still suppresses the market in the medium term, and there is certain pressure on supply and demand. However, the conflict between the US and Iran brings disturbances, and the short-term market may fluctuate repeatedly [1][4][5] - **Iron ore**: Molten iron production has decreased significantly and is expected to rebound. Port inventories are accumulating, steel mills are consuming inventories and purchasing on demand. Supply has shrunk this period, and the fundamentals have improved. The escalation of iron ore negotiations between China and Australia has pushed up ore prices periodically. The sharp decline in the crude oil sector may exert emotional pressure on the market, so cautious operation is required [1][8] - **Coke**: Except for some coke enterprises in Hebei being restricted in production, the operation in other regions remains stable. During the Two Sessions, some steel mills restricted blast furnace production, and molten iron production decreased significantly in the short term. Steel mills initiated the first round of price cuts, and the willingness to replenish inventories is insufficient. The short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, so cautious operation is required [1][12] - **Coking coal**: Domestic coal mines are resuming production intensively, and the daily output of mines continues to rise month-on-month. In terms of demand, molten iron production has decreased significantly month-on-month, and the downstream's willingness to replenish inventories is insufficient. Overall, supply and demand tend to be loose, the short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, and cautious operation is required [1][16] - **Ferromanganese**: The production area's operating rate remains at a low level, demand has increased month-on-month, and inventories have decreased month-on-month. Some mainstream manganese mines' quotes for April continue to rise, and the cost side provides strong support. The short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, but its fundamentals and low valuation support the price to a certain extent [1][19][20] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply in the production area has decreased month-on-month, demand has increased month-on-month, and inventories have decreased month-on-month. A new round of steel tenders is starting one after another, and attention should be paid to the quotes of mainstream steel mills. The short-term commodity sentiment is volatile, but its fundamentals and low valuation support the price to a certain extent [1][19][20] - **Glass**: The real estate statements during the Two Sessions continue the previous policy orientation. Production enterprises continue the seasonal inventory accumulation trend. The current fundamentals maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand, with a daily melting volume of 148,500 tons. Under weak demand, further reduction in supply is still needed to digest high inventories. The recent fluctuations in crude oil prices have intensified, and the market may fluctuate [1][23] - **Soda ash**: The in-plant inventory has reached a record high, and the upstream operating rate remains at a neutral level of 87% compared to the same period. Real estate demand continues to be weak, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic + float glass is 236,000 tons, with insufficient support for heavy soda demand. The rise in energy prices has driven up the overall cost, and there may be short-term fluctuations [1][27] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Price Information**: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices have different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the latest price of rebar 01 is 3,174 with a rise of 33, and the latest price of hot-rolled coil 01 is 3,291 with a rise of 28 [2] - **Analysis of Supply and Demand**: Rebar demand is weak, and molten iron production is high, resulting in relatively loose supply and demand. Hot-rolled coil production and demand are stable, and inventory is high [1][4] - **Market Outlook**: Affected by the conflict between the US and Iran and weak reality, the short-term market may fluctuate repeatedly [1][5] 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price Information**: Iron ore futures prices have increased, and spot prices and related indexes have also changed. For example, the latest price of iron ore 01 is 741 with a rise of 12, and the latest price of PB powder is 773 [6] - **Analysis of Supply and Demand**: Molten iron production is expected to rebound, port inventories are accumulating, and supply has shrunk this period, with improved fundamentals [1][8] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bullish, but the sharp decline in the crude oil sector may bring emotional pressure [1][8][9] 3.3 Coke - **Price Information**: Coke futures prices have increased, and spot prices are relatively stable. For example, the latest price of the coke 1-month contract is 1,906.0 with a rise of 50.5 [11] - **Analysis of Supply and Demand**: Supply is relatively stable except for some restrictions in Hebei, and demand has decreased due to blast furnace restrictions during the Two Sessions, with insufficient inventory replenishment willingness [1][12] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bearish, with volatile short-term commodity sentiment [1][12][13] 3.4 Coking Coal - **Price Information**: Coking coal futures prices have increased, and spot prices are mostly stable. For example, the latest price of the coking coal 1-month contract is 1,468.0 with a rise of 42.0 [15] - **Analysis of Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing due to concentrated resumption of production in domestic coal mines, and demand has decreased due to the decline in molten iron production, with overall loose supply and demand [1][16] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bearish, with volatile short-term commodity sentiment [1][16][17] 3.5 Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - **Price Information**: Ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures and spot prices have different degrees of increase. For example, the latest price of ferromanganese 01 is 6,248 with a rise of 26, and the latest price of ferrosilicon 01 is 5,960 with a rise of 58 [18] - **Analysis of Supply and Demand**: Ferromanganese production area's operating rate is low, demand is increasing, and inventories are decreasing. Ferrosilicon supply is decreasing, demand is increasing, and inventories are decreasing [1][19] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bullish, with support from fundamentals and low valuation despite volatile short-term commodity sentiment [1][19][20] 3.6 Glass - **Price Information**: Glass futures prices have increased, and spot prices are relatively stable. For example, the latest price of FG01 is 1,280 with a rise of 25 [22] - **Analysis of Supply and Demand**: The fundamentals are in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with high inventories and a need for further supply reduction [1][23] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bearish, with the market affected by crude oil price fluctuations [1][23][24] 3.7 Soda Ash - **Price Information**: Soda ash futures prices have increased, and spot prices have different degrees of increase. For example, the latest price of SA01 is 1,358 with a rise of 26 [26] - **Analysis of Supply and Demand**: Inventories are at a record high, production is at a neutral level, and demand is weak [1][27] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bearish, with short-term fluctuations due to rising energy costs [1][27][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the next month, steel prices may experience an opportunity for a volatile rebound. The core logic is that after the Spring Festival, downstream construction sites resume work intensively and infrastructure projects are accelerated, pushing steel demand into a seasonal period. Although the supply side will also increase, limited by the narrow profit margin of steel mills, the overall production increase power is limited, laying the foundation for the inventory to reach its peak and decline. The policy signals released during the Two Sessions have provided some confidence to the market. The reference price range for rebar is 2,950 - 3,200 yuan/ton, and for hot-rolled coil, it is 3,100 - 3,300 yuan/ton [3][47][48]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In February, steel futures fluctuated weakly. The main rebar contract reached a monthly high of 3,139 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and a low of 3,005 yuan/ton, closing at 3,067 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan or 1.95%. The hot-rolled coil also declined, hitting a six - month low. Holiday factors led to the accumulation of industrial contradictions. With terminal construction sites shut down, demand weakened seasonally, while steel mill production remained stable. Under the situation of stable supply and weak demand, inventory increased significantly. After the Spring Festival, rebar rebounded and stabilized after reaching the key level of 3,000 yuan/ton, and the price showed signs of stabilization at the end of the month. In March, with the convening of the Two Sessions, the macro - economic outlook improved, and combined with the seasonal increase in post - holiday demand, the low - level support for steel futures strengthened [8]. 3.2 Steel Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Recovery - In February, steel production was generally stable, but there was a differentiation between long - and short - process production. The blast furnace production was relatively stable, with the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills remaining around 80%. The electric furnace production contracted significantly, with the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces dropping sharply from 70.66% to 10.14%, and the capacity utilization rate decreasing from 55.71% to 7.35%. The short - process production decreased from 32.21 tons to 2.6 tons. The weekly production of rebar was 165 tons, a decrease of 35 tons from the previous month, while the weekly production of hot - rolled coil was 310 tons, a slight increase of 0.4 tons. In March, steel production is expected to increase steadily. After the Two Sessions, steel mill production will accelerate, and overall molten iron production is expected to gradually recover to around 240 tons. The production of hot - rolled coil will be affected to some extent. After the Spring Festival, the concentrated resumption of electric furnace production will lead to a rapid increase in rebar production. However, limited by the profit situation, the production increase power is insufficient, and the overall production will be stable [13][14]. 3.2.2 Pay Attention to the Peak Rhythm in Mid - March - In February, steel inventory increased during the Spring Festival due to the mismatch between supply and demand, with significant differentiation among varieties. As of March 5, the total inventory of five major steel products was 1,952 tons, an increase of 614 tons from the previous month and 91 tons more than the same period last year. Although the total inventory is at a relatively low level in recent lunar years, it is significantly higher year - on - year. The social inventory and mill inventory both increased. The social inventory reached 1,403 tons, an increase of 462 tons, mainly due to the stagnation of spot trading during the holiday and the passive inventory increase of traders. The mill inventory was 549 tons, an increase of 151 tons, mainly from the backlog of construction steel in the mills. The inventory of construction steel increased the most, with the total rebar inventory reaching 876 tons, an increase of 356 tons from the previous month and 15 tons more than the same period last year. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 472 tons, an increase of 112 tons from the previous month and 43 tons more than the same period last year, reaching the highest level in recent lunar years. After the Lantern Festival, the construction of downstream construction sites resumed, and the inventory of construction steel is expected to reach its peak in mid - March [19]. 3.2.3 The Intensity of Demand Recovery Remains to be Observed - In February, steel demand was significantly affected by the Spring Festival holiday, and all varieties declined. The national building materials trading volume decreased by 29.40% month - on - month. The rebar delivery volume in Hangzhou dropped to 10,300 tons, and the cement delivery volume dropped to 22 tons, both reaching new lows in recent years. The apparent demand data also weakened. The minimum apparent demand for rebar dropped to 41 tons, for hot - rolled coil to 247 tons, and for five major steel products to 537 tons. The terminal performance was generally weak, with real estate investment being poor. From January to February, the total land acquisition amount of key real estate enterprises decreased by 52.4% year - on - year, and the new construction and construction recovery were weak. The formation of physical work in infrastructure was lagging, with limited short - term pulling effect. In the manufacturing sector, passenger car sales decreased month - on - month, the production schedule of three major white goods in March decreased by 4% year - on - year, and external demand was affected by RMB appreciation and tariffs, with export orders declining marginally. In March, with the resumption of construction sites and the development of infrastructure, demand may improve marginally, but concerns in the real estate and manufacturing sectors still exist, and the intensity of the recovery remains to be observed [22]. 3.2.4 Positive and Steady Macroeconomic Policies, Real Estate Still at Risk - Fiscal policy continues to be positive, aiming at "increasing efforts and improving efficiency" by moderately expanding the expenditure scale, optimizing the expenditure structure, and providing direct support to key areas such as technological innovation, green transformation, and people's livelihood. Tax cuts and fee reductions are also continued to stimulate market vitality. Monetary policy remains prudent and flexible, emphasizing "precision and effectiveness". It maintains reasonable and sufficient liquidity, deepens the use of structural tools, and guides financial resources to weak links such as small and micro enterprises, technological innovation, and rural revitalization. - In the real estate sector, policies focus on "stabilizing expectations, preventing risks, and benefiting people's livelihood". On the supply side, the primary goal is to "ensure the completion of buildings", promoting the resumption of work on suspended projects through special loans. Land supply is optimized, with high - inventory cities reducing supply and population - inflow cities increasing the supply of affordable housing land. On the demand side, policies are implemented according to the local situation. Core cities relax purchase and loan restrictions, lower down - payment ratios and interest rates to support rigid and improved housing needs. Third - and fourth - tier cities issue subsidies and increase the housing provident fund quota to stimulate consumption. At the same time, pre - sale funds are strictly managed to prevent the debt risks of real estate enterprises, and high - quality real estate enterprises are supported in financing to promote the industry's transition to a new development model. - The government report emphasizes infrastructure as an important means to stabilize growth and adjust the structure, focusing on the coordinated development of traditional and new infrastructure. Traditional infrastructure focuses on short - board areas such as transportation, water conservancy, and energy, while new infrastructure targets 5G base stations, data centers, and charging piles. The report also emphasizes the optimization of investment structure, strict control of inefficient and repetitive construction, and the improvement of the whole - life - cycle efficiency of infrastructure. - In the manufacturing sector, it is emphasized to focus on the real economy, promoting the high - end, intelligent, and green development of manufacturing. R & D investment is increased, enterprises are supported to break through key core technologies, and "little giants" and advanced manufacturing clusters are cultivated. In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level [24][26][27][28]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Supply side: In February, steel supply was generally stable, with blast furnace production remaining stable and the electric furnace operating rate dropping sharply, leading to a significant decline in rebar production. Hot - rolled coil supply remained high due to the support of long - process production. In March, with the concentrated resumption of electric furnace production after the Spring Festival and the recovery of blast furnace operation after the Two Sessions, steel supply will gradually increase, but limited by the low profit margin of steel mills, the overall production increase power is insufficient, and the supply will show a moderate recovery trend. - Demand side: In February, steel demand was significantly affected by the Spring Festival holiday and weakened. The apparent consumption of rebar dropped to a minimum of 41 tons, showing typical seasonal off - peak characteristics. The terminal performance was generally weak, with real estate enterprises significantly reducing land acquisition, new construction and construction recovery being weak, and the formation of physical work in infrastructure being lagging. In the manufacturing sector, automobile sales declined month - on - month, and the production schedule of home appliances decreased. Looking forward to March, with the concentrated resumption of downstream construction sites and the development of infrastructure projects, demand will enter a seasonal recovery channel, but the drag from the real estate sector still exists, and concerns in the manufacturing sector remain. The intensity of demand recovery remains to be observed [47].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils have both weakened. The production of plate steel mills has declined, with the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreasing by 85,000 tons week-on-week. The inventory has reached a high level, and the supply pressure has not been effectively alleviated, which continues to suppress steel prices. Meanwhile, the demand for hot-rolled coils has also weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 97,400 tons week-on-week, significantly lower than the same period last year. The downstream cold-rolled contradictions have not been resolved, and the Middle East conflict has disrupted steel export demand, so the demand resilience of hot-rolled coils will weaken. Under the current high-inventory situation, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coils remains, while the demand resilience is weakening. With the simultaneous decline in supply and demand, the contradictions in the hot-rolled coil market continue to accumulate, and prices will continue to face pressure. Under the logic of weak reality, it is expected that hot-rolled coils will maintain a downward trend in search of a bottom. Attention should be paid to changes in demand [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Supply - The weekly output of hot-rolled coils is 3.0111 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 85,000 tons and a decrease of 278,200 tons compared to the same period last year. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.32%, a week-on-week decrease of 2.13 percentage points and a decrease of 0.28 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The weekly output of cold-rolled coils is 885,100 tons, a week-on-week increase of 76,000 tons and an increase of 316,000 tons compared to the same period last year [1]. Demand - The weekly apparent demand for hot-rolled coils is 2.8157 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 97,400 tons and a decrease of 320,200 tons compared to the same period last year. The downstream cold-rolled contradictions have not been resolved, and the Middle East conflict has disrupted steel export demand, so the demand resilience of hot-rolled coils will weaken [1][3]. Inventory - The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is 4.7169 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 195,400 tons and an increase of 420,300 tons compared to the same period last year. The in-plant inventory is 900,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 47,000 tons and a decrease of 18,500 tons compared to the same period last year. The social inventory is 3.8161 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 242,400 tons and an increase of 438,800 tons compared to the same period last year [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - In March, the demand for the steel market will pick up, but the performance of the automotive and home - appliance sectors is weak, and the intensity of demand release remains to be seen. The supply increase in March may be more obvious, and the supply - demand fundamentals of the steel market are still weak, with significant inventory digestion pressure in some regions. However, the pre - Spring Festival decline in steel prices has largely priced in the bearish factors of spot selling pressure under high inventory. Currently, most winter - storage resources of traders are in the red, and steel price valuations are at a low level. The widening domestic - foreign price gap keeps steel exports at a high level. With strong expectations of macro - policy easing and market anticipation of crude steel production reduction and anti - involution policies in 2026, market sentiment is stable. It is expected that the domestic steel market will show a volatile and slightly stronger trend in March, and attention should be paid to the statements of important meetings [160]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - In February, black - series commodities fluctuated and declined, with raw materials falling more than steel products and futures falling more than spot. For example, the price of螺纹2605 dropped from 3,128 yuan/ton to 3,067 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.95% [6]. - In the international market in February, hot - rolled coil prices in most regions rose, except in the US import and Japanese markets. The prices of US, EU steel mills, and South American exports increased significantly [7]. - In February, the basis of 05 - contract rebar and hot - rolled coil expanded. The rebar basis increased from 122 yuan/ton to 143 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil basis increased from - 18 yuan/ton to 15 yuan/ton [9]. - In February, most rebar spot prices fell slightly, with price drops in various regions ranging from 10 to 60 yuan [11]. - In February, hot - rolled coil spot prices showed mixed trends. Prices in Guangzhou, Shenyang, and Chengdu rose by 10 - 30 yuan, while those in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Wuhan fell by 20 - 30 yuan [18]. - In February, the price difference between rebar and billet narrowed, the price difference between first - and third - tier resources in East China remained flat, and the price difference between rebar and scrap steel narrowed [28]. 3.2 Supply - In mid - February, the daily average output of pig iron and crude steel of key steel enterprises increased by 4.06% and 4.29% respectively compared with the previous period [46]. - In February, the weekly output of rebar decreased significantly, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil increased slightly, and the weekly output of the five major steel products decreased. The weekly output of rebar decreased from 199.83 tons to 165.10 tons [52]. - In February, the weekly output of rebar in the northern region increased slightly, while that in the eastern and southern regions decreased significantly [59]. - In February, the blast - furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and daily average pig - iron output all increased [68]. - In February, the electric - furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate decreased significantly, and the scrap - steel inventory of steel mills decreased significantly [76]. 3.3 Demand - In February, the national building - materials trading volume, the delivery volume of rebar in Hangzhou, and the national cement delivery volume all decreased. The national building - materials trading volume decreased from 96,296 tons to 67,985 tons [84]. - In February, the trading volume in the northern, southern, and eastern regions decreased comprehensively, and the operating rate of cement mills decreased significantly [91]. - In February, the apparent demand for rebar decreased significantly, the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil decreased, and the apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased. The apparent demand for rebar decreased from 176.4 tons to 80.54 tons [98]. - In February, the land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities and the commercial - housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased, while the passenger - car sales remained relatively stable [105]. 3.4 Inventory - In February, the inventory of the five major steel products increased significantly by 567.6 tons, and the year - on - year increase in the lunar calendar was 134.27 tons [112]. - In February, the total rebar inventory increased significantly by 325.07 tons, and the year - on - year increase in the lunar calendar was 95.22 tons [116]. - In February, the rebar inventory in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou all increased [123]. - In February, the total hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 96.57 tons, and the year - on - year increase in the lunar calendar was 37.83 tons [129]. - In February, the hot - rolled coil inventory in Shanghai, Chengdu, Lecong, and Tianjin all increased [135]. 3.5 Profit - In February, the profit per ton of blast - furnace steel mills in Jiangsu increased, and the loss of electric - furnace steel mills during peak - electricity hours narrowed. The profit per ton of Jiangsu steel mills increased from 23 yuan/ton to 58 yuan/ton [141]. - In February, the on - paper profit of the 05 - contract rebar and hot - rolled coil increased. The on - paper profit of rebar increased from - 23 yuan/ton to - 8 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil increased from 2 yuan/ton to 26 yuan/ton [138]. 3.6 Transaction Data - In February, the positions, trading volume, and settled funds of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [144]. 3.7 Rebar Options - Relevant data on historical volatility and the historical volatility cone of rebar options are presented [148]. - The ratio of put - to - call positions and trading volume of rebar options in relation to the closing price is shown [151]. 3.8 Other Factors - Bullish factors include the expectation of macro - policy easing, the inventory shifting to the digestion stage, the positive sentiment in the commodity market, and production restrictions of some steel mills during important meetings [155]. - Bearish factors include high - level inventory accumulation, the expected increase in overall steel - mill production, weak performance in real - estate and infrastructure, and increased export pressure on steel mills [155].