黑色金属周报-钢材 供需博弈 基差修复 2025年8月25日 研究所 白净 从业资格号：F03097282； 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018999 目录 废钢端，截止8月21日，张家港废钢价格2120元/吨，环比下降30元/吨。数据显示，89家独立 电弧炉企业产能利用率35.7%，环比下降0.6个百分点；255家样本钢厂日耗56.1万吨，环比增0.34 万吨；其中，132家长流程钢厂日耗27.9万吨/天，环比回升0.44万吨；短流程日耗17.7吨，环比 降0.3万吨。供应方面，255家样本钢厂日均到货53.9万吨，环比增4.47万吨，增幅9%。库存方面， 255家钢企废钢库存总计450.9万吨，环比增7.61万吨，增幅1.7%。综合来看，近期长流程成本抬 升较快,致铁废价差持续反弹，废钢经济性虽有恢复，但吨钢利润收缩，短期需求难有增量。 结论：从基本面来看，上周价格回落后，成材端需求有所好转，产量维持高位波动，供需面 尚未继续恶化，阅兵前原料供应收缩预期致原料价格表现坚挺，吨钢利润收缩后，不具备深跌驱 动，短线或呈现震荡走势，01合约螺纹估值或在谷电成本附近波动。 （风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎。） 数据 ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属早报 2025 年 08 月 21 日 公众号二维码 银河投研黑色与有色 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F03105917 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 黑色金属每日早盘观察 钢材 【相关资讯】 1. 交通运输部：前 7 个月，我国新改建农村公路 5.1 万公里，实施农村公路安全 生命防护工程 3.3 万公里。此外，全国农村公路完成固定资产投资 2062.4 亿元。 2.美东时间 8 月 20 日周三公布的 7 月美联储会议纪要显示，7 月会上，几乎全体 决策者支持暂不降息，只有两人反对。纪要体现了，对通胀和就业的风险以及关税对 通胀的影响，联储官员均存在分歧，不过多数还是认为，通胀上升的风险比就业下行 的风险高。 2.国家统计局最新数据显示，2025 年 7 月，我国挖掘机产量 24732 台，同比增长 13.9%。2025 年 1-7 月，我国挖掘机产量 205299 台，同比增长 11.1%。 现货价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market is affected by tariff disturbances, with steel prices experiencing increased volatility. The black - series market had a concentrated release of previous bullish sentiment, facing short - term adjustments due to factors such as post - delivery market arrival pressure and recent tariff impacts, but still having upward drivers in the medium term [3]. - The supply, demand, and inventory of different steel products (such as rebar and hot - rolled coils) and raw materials (such as iron ore, coking coal, and coke) show different trends. For example, rebar has limited demand release in the off - season, while hot - rolled coils have a more optimistic demand performance [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - The prices of raw materials were under pressure at high levels, and steel prices fluctuated and adjusted. The prices of some steel products and raw materials changed, with some rising and some falling. The market sentiment cooled down after the exchange adjusted the coking coal handling fee and imposed position limits. Rebar has been accumulating inventory for three consecutive weeks, while the inventory increase of hot - rolled coils has slowed down, and the social inventory has decreased. In the short - term, the trend of hot - rolled coils is stronger than that of rebar, and the overall market shows an oscillating adjustment [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: National rebar weekly output was 220.45 million tons (down 0.33% month - on - month and up 32.51% year - on - year), and national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 315.59 million tons (up 0.22% month - on - month and up 4.72% year - on - year). Rebar production decreased slightly, and hot - rolled coil production increased slightly. The blast furnace and electric furnace production of rebar both decreased slightly. The blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, and the electric furnace operating rate increased slightly. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils both contracted [14][16][27]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 189.94 million tons (down 9.89% month - on - month and down 4.72% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 314.75 million tons (up 2.79% month - on - month and up 9.21% year - on - year). Rebar demand declined significantly, while hot - rolled coil demand showed an increase [35]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 587.19 million tons (up 5.48% month - on - month and down 14.97% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 357.47 million tons (up 0.24% month - on - month and down 20.66% year - on - year). Rebar inventory accumulation expanded, and hot - rolled coil inventory accumulation slowed down [39][44]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, the transactions of commercial housing and land both weakened month - on - month. In the automotive market, in July 2025, automobile production and sales decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [45][50]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 100.81 (down 0.37% month - on - month and up 6.71% year - on - year). The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2669.7 million tons (up 9.96% month - on - month and up 3.41% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 iron ore ports was 2476.6 million tons (up 3.98% month - on - month and up 5.49% year - on - year) [57]. - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal was 240.66 million tons (up 0.34 million tons month - on - month and up 11.89 million tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 iron ore ports was 334.67 million tons (up 3.98% month - on - month and up 2.43% year - on - year). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 30.61 days (up 1.26% month - on - month and down 5.35% year - on - year) [62]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 iron ore ports was 13819.27 million tons (up 0.78% month - on - month and down 8.07% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9136.4 million tons (up 1.37% month - on - month and up 0.73% year - on - year) [68]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 83.73% (down 0.19% month - on - month and down 7.14% year - on - year), the capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants was 36.51% (up 0.80% month - on - month and down 11.32% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 16.51 million tons (up 16.60% month - on - month and up 18.28% year - on - year) [74]. - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction transaction rate was 87.72% (up 9.46% week - on - week and up 27.37% year - on - year), and the weekly coking coal auction transaction rate was 82.08% (down 6.76% week - on - week and up 36.73% year - on - year) [76]. - **Coking Enterprise Situation**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was + 20 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan/ton month - on - month and up 57 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 74.34% (up 0.42% month - on - month and up 2.07% year - on - year) [82]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 829.31 million tons (down 0.45% month - on - month and up 23.53% year - on - year), the steel mill coking coal inventory was 805.60 million tons (down 0.36% month - on - month and up 11.43% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 255.49 million tons (down 7.88% month - on - month and down 25.59% year - on - year). The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 39.31 million tons (down 11.92% month - on - month and down 13.98% year - on - year), the steel mill coke inventory was 609.8 million tons (down 1.53% month - on - month and up 14.24% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 215.11 million tons (down 1.39% month - on - month and up 14.29% year - on - year) [88][94]. - **Spot Price**: The sixth round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the game between steel and coke enterprises continues [95]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar has widened, and the spread between rebar contracts 10 - 1 has continued to shrink. The spread between iron ore contracts 9 - 1 has continued to narrow, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has widened again [102][108].

Report Overview - Report Title: Steel Weekly Supply and Demand Data Interpretation - Date: August 14, 2025 - Researcher: Multiple individuals with corresponding qualification numbers 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The fundamentals of the steel industry continue to show marginal weakening, with inventory accumulation accelerating for the five major steel products, and the characteristics of the off - season persisting. The overall market sentiment is cooling, and with ongoing policy fluctuations, the futures prices are expected to fluctuate widely [2][3]. 3. Summary by Category Demand - **Threaded steel**: The apparent demand is 189,940 tons (-20,850 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 3.07% [2]. - **Hot - rolled coils**: The apparent demand is 314,750 tons (+8,540 tons), a year - on - year increase of 9.21% [2]. - **Five major steel products**: The apparent demand is 831,020 tons (-14,720 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 1.74% [2]. Supply - **Threaded steel**: The production is 220,450 tons (-730 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.33% [2]. - **Hot - rolled coils**: The production is 315,590 tons (+700 tons), a year - on - year increase of 0.22% [2]. - **Five major steel products**: The production is 871,630 tons (+2,420 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.28% [2]. Inventory - **Threaded steel**: The inventory is 587,190 tons (+30,510 tons), a year - on - year increase of 5.48% [2]. - **Hot - rolled coils**: The inventory is 357,470 tons (+840 tons), a year - on - year increase of 0.24% [2]. - **Five major steel products**: The inventory is 1,415,970 tons (+40,610 tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.95% [2]. Market Analysis - The production of copper plants has a mix of resumptions and inspections, and the production of threaded steel and hot - rolled coils has changed little. There has been a significant increase in threaded steel inventory due to a large amount of threaded steel cutting resources arriving at the port and the warehousing of previously typhoon - affected goods. The demand has declined, while the export orders for hot - rolled coils have improved, but domestic demand remains weak. The inventory of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled coils has also accumulated, and the overall market continues to show off - season characteristics [3].

-1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦煤--基差 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 日期 01-14 01-28 02-11 02-25 03-10 03-24 04-07 04-21 05-05 05-19 06-02 06-16 06-30 07-14 07-28 08-11 08-25 09-08 09-22 10-06 10-20 11-03 11-17 12-01 12-15 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 焦炭--基差 | | 黑色产业数据每日监测（8.01） | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the steel industry remain healthy with no signs of weakening. Driven by macro - expectations, the futures market has risen, and the strong willingness of mid - stream enterprises to replenish inventory has led to a simultaneous increase in futures and spot prices. In the short term, steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Demand - Thread steel apparent demand reached 2.1658 million tons (+104,100 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand was 3.1524 million tons (-85,500 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 1.86%. The apparent demand for the five major steel products was 8.6813 million tons (-19,800 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.23% [74]. Supply - Thread steel production was 2.1196 million tons (+29,000 tons), a year - on - year increase of 1.39%. Hot - rolled coil production was 3.7749 million tons (-36,500 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 1.14%. The production of the five major steel products was 8.6697 million tons (-12,200 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.14% [74]. Inventory - Thread steel inventory was 5.3864 million tons (-46,200 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.85%. Hot - rolled coil inventory was 3.4516 million tons (+22,500 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.66%. The inventory of the five major steel products was 13.365 million tons (-11,600 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.09% [74]. Product - specific Situation - **Thread steel**: The futures market rally has stimulated downstream inventory replenishment, leading to a significant increase in apparent demand. With the improvement of EAF profits, production has slightly increased, and inventory has continued to decline [3]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Apparent demand has seasonally declined, remaining at a normal level compared to the same period in previous years, with a year - on - year decrease and a slight increase in inventory [3]. - **Medium and heavy plates and other products**: Supply and demand have remained strong, and the inventory of the five major steel products has continued to decline [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints Market Analysis - Overseas consumption remains at a high level, with India continuing to show significant growth. From January to May 2025, overseas crude steel production totaled 35,151 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, but a year-on-year increase of 0.3% in May. Overseas crude steel consumption totaled 40,416 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. From January to June, China's net exports of crude steel equivalent totaled 5,266 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.6% [4]. - Domestic steel exports have increased significantly, while domestic demand remains stable, leading to strong demand for raw materials. From January to June 2025, domestic crude steel production totaled 55,152 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. Crude steel consumption totaled 48,481 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. In June, both production and consumption of domestic crude steel showed positive trends. In the first half of the year, China's net exports of crude steel equivalent totaled 6,362 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%. In June, the total of crude steel production and exports reached 9,621 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. During the same period, domestic pig iron production totaled 44,865 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and iron ore consumption increased by 2,198 million tons [4]. - The supply of iron elements is tight, and inventory is at a medium level. From January to June, domestic steel consumption remained resilient. In June, domestic crude steel consumption increased by 3.3% year-on-year, and net exports of crude steel equivalent increased by 22.1%. The total of domestic demand and exports in June decreased month-on-month but increased significantly year-on-year. In the first half of the year, steel mills adopted a production - based - on - sales strategy, and steel inventory continued to decline. Currently, the total iron ore inventory is at a medium level, and steel and scrap steel inventories are at low levels. In the short term, the iron ore market remains in a tight - balance state [5][6]. - The supply of carbon elements is relatively tight due to decreased production and imports. Since the beginning of this year, the supply of carbon elements has been significantly affected by domestic production and imports, and the market is in a tight - balance state. The inventory of carbon elements has been continuously decreasing. After the Spring Festival, the de - stocking trend of carbon elements was stronger than in previous years. From mid - June, with the continuous decline in coking coal supply and strong domestic steel consumption and exports, the inventory of coking coal and carbon elements began to decline, and the coking coal price continued to rebound [7]. Strategy - The annual outlook suggests that the rate of iron ore inventory accumulation will narrow, and the supply and demand of coking coal and coke will remain in a tight - balance state [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 2025 1 - 5 Global Steel Industry Supply and Demand Analysis Overseas Consumption Remains High, India Continues to Grow Significantly - From January to May 2025, overseas crude steel production totaled 35,151 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, but a year-on-year increase of 0.3% in May. Overseas crude steel consumption totaled 40,416 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. From January to June, China's net exports of crude steel equivalent totaled 5,266 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.6% [16]. - From January to May 2025, overseas total iron production totaled 22,055 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, and iron ore consumption decreased by 178 million tons. In May, overseas total iron production increased by 1.8% year-on-year. From January to May, overseas scrap steel consumption totaled 16,611 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3% [21]. Domestic Demand Remains Stable, Exports Increase Significantly, and Raw Material Demand Remains Strong - From January to June 2025, domestic crude steel production totaled 55,152 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. Crude steel consumption totaled 48,481 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. In June, both production and consumption of domestic crude steel showed positive trends. In the first half of the year, China's net exports of crude steel equivalent totaled 6,362 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%. In June, the total of crude steel production and exports reached 9,621 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. During the same period, domestic pig iron production totaled 44,865 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and iron ore consumption increased by 2,198 million tons [25]. Anti - Dumping Investigations Cause Disturbances, but Exports Remain Resilient - In 2024, China's steel exports exceeded 100 million tons, reaching a new high since 2017. In the first half of 2025, China's steel exports totaled 5,815 million tons, an increase of 475 million tons compared to the same period last year. Among the top 10 export destinations, Vietnam, South Korea, and India saw significant declines in imports from China due to tariff increases. Overall, exports remain strong, and most steel products continue to show growth in exports [32]. Iron Element Supply is Tight, Inventory Remains at a Medium Level Domestic Iron Ore Production Declines Month - on - Month, Supply Decreases Year - on - Year in the First Half - From January to June, the cumulative output of domestic iron ore concentrate powder was 12,862 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%, continuing the low - supply situation since the second half of last year. It is expected that some production will be replenished in the second half of the year [42]. Iron Ore Supply from Australia and Brazil Increases, Supply from Non - Mainstream Sources Continues to Shrink - From January to June, China's total iron ore imports were 59,255 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%. Among them, imports from Australia were 36,417 million tons, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1%; imports from Brazil were 11,948 million tons, a decrease of 4.1%. Imports from South Africa and India were 2,050 million tons and 1,337 million tons respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 3.4% and - 46.5%. Imports from other non - Australian, Brazilian, Indian, and South African countries were 7,503 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%. Overall, in June, the decline in iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil narrowed, and the supply from non - mainstream sources showed a contraction trend [44]. Domestic Demand Remains Resilient, Exports are Strong, and Iron Element Inventory is at a Medium - Low Level - From January to June, domestic steel consumption remained resilient. In June, domestic crude steel consumption increased by 3.3% year-on-year, and net exports of crude steel equivalent increased by 22.1%. The total of domestic demand and exports in June decreased month-on-month but increased significantly year-on-year. In the first half of the year, steel mills adopted a production - based - on - sales strategy, and steel inventory continued to decline. Currently, the total iron ore inventory is at a medium level, and steel and scrap steel inventories are at low levels. In the short term, the iron ore market remains in a tight - balance state [56][57]. Production and Imports Decrease, Carbon Element Supply is Relatively Tight Falling Prices and Safety Production Measures Lead to a Decrease in Domestic Coking Coal Production - Since 2023, coal production has been affected by frequent coal mine accidents. In order to eliminate safety hazards and strengthen safety production, relevant government agencies have issued a series of coal production safety policies. At the beginning of this year, the impact of coal mine accidents on supply gradually subsided, and domestic coking coal supply quickly recovered, putting pressure on coking coal prices. In June, affected by the continuous decline in coking coal prices, the pressure on coal mine inventory increased, and coking coal production continued to decline. As of July 17, the daily average output of raw coal and clean coal from sample mines was lower than the same period last year [58][60]. Continuous Price Decline Leads to a Decrease in Coking Coal Imports - In the past few years, imports of coking coal from Mongolia and Russia have continued to increase. In 2024, China's net imports of coking coal reached a record high of 12,114 million tons. From January to June this year, China's net imports of coking coal were 5,282 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.36%. Among them, imports from Mongolia decreased by 479 million tons, imports from Russia decreased by 2 million tons, and imports from Australia decreased by 23 million tons. Imports from the United States increased by 206 million tons in the first half of the year, but the import volume was zero in May and June [62][63]. Carbon Element Supply and Demand are in a Tight - Balance State, Inventory Structure is Continuously Optimized - Since the beginning of this year, the supply of carbon elements has been significantly affected by domestic production and imports, and the market is in a tight - balance state. The inventory of carbon elements has been continuously decreasing. After the Spring Festival, the de - stocking trend of carbon elements was stronger than in previous years. From mid - June, with the continuous decline in coking coal supply and strong domestic steel consumption and exports, the inventory of coking coal and carbon elements began to decline, and the coking coal price continued to rebound. Currently, the inventory structure of carbon elements shows a high degree of balance [72]. Re - evaluation of Iron and Carbon Elements Iron Element Supply is Expected to Recover, Iron Ore Inventory will be at a Medium - High Level - In April, overseas consumption was lower than expected, and overseas crude steel production and sales data were revised downwards. It is estimated that overseas crude steel consumption will increase by 1.4% year-on-year in 2025, while crude steel production is expected to decrease by 0.1%. Overseas demand for crude steel imports remains strong, and it is expected to increase by more than 1,350 million tons compared to 2025. Overseas scrap steel consumption is expected to decrease by 679 million tons, and overseas total iron production is expected to increase by 612 million tons, equivalent to an increase of 979 million tons in iron ore consumption. Based on the assumption that domestic steel consumption will increase by 0.4% year-on-year and considering the increase in iron ore imports in the second half of this year, relevant supply assumptions are made [77]. Production Increases, Imports Decrease, Supply and Demand of Coking Coal and Coke are in a Tight - Balance State - Based on the assumption of an increase in crude steel and pig iron production, it is estimated that the consumption of coke (for ironmaking) will increase by 652 million tons in 2025. Considering the poor coking profit in the past, coking plants generally adopt a production - based - on - sales strategy. The annual coke production is expected to increase by 439 million tons. The coke market will remain in a tight - balance state, and inventory will remain at a low level. Given the current decline in domestic coking coal production and a significant decrease in imports, the coking coal market will also be in a tight - balance state, and coking coal inventory is expected to reach a low level [3][7].

Report Title - The report is titled "Weak Demand Pressure in the Off - season, Steel Prices Rise and Then Fall - Weekly Report 20250707" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic environment shows enhanced expectations of warming policies, leading to a significant rebound in steel futures and spot prices. However, in the industrial aspect, the overall supply - demand structure continues to weaken during the high - temperature and rainy off - season. Steel prices are expected to face short - term correction pressure as the previous macro - positive sentiment fades [3][9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: In the previous week, due to the improved macro - atmosphere and enhanced expectations of capacity control, commodity prices generally rebounded. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities increased, with rebar in Shanghai rising by 90 yuan/ton to 3170 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai rising by 60 yuan/ton to 3250 yuan/ton. Futures prices also showed significant increases, with the RB01 contract rising by 88 yuan/ton to 3093 yuan/ton [9] - **Inventory Changes**: Rebar social inventory slightly increased, and hot - rolled coil total inventory increased for two consecutive weeks. Rebar total inventory decreased by 3.79 tons to 545.21 tons, while hot - rolled coil total inventory increased by 3.77 tons to 344.93 tons [9] 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: National rebar weekly output was 221.08 tons (up 1.49% week - on - week, down 11.01% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil weekly output was 328.14 tons (up 0.28% week - on - week, up 0.57% year - on - year). Rebar production increased in both blast furnaces and electric furnaces, with blast furnace output at 195.24 tons (up 1.23% week - on - week, down 7.62% year - on - year) and electric furnace output at 25.84 tons (up 3.44% week - on - week, up 1.69% year - on - year). The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46% (down 0.43% week - on - week, up 0.42% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 66.87% (down 4.66% week - on - week, down 4.46% year - on - year) [15][17][22] - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 224.87 tons (up 2.26% week - on - week, down 4.42% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 324.37 tons (down 0.58% week - on - week, up 2.10% year - on - year). The 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 10.68 tons (up 8.23% week - on - week, down 16.56% year - on - year) [36] - **Inventory**: Rebar slightly reduced inventory, with social inventory increasing and factory inventory decreasing. Rebar factory inventory was 180.47 tons (down 2.76% week - on - week, down 6.81% year - on - year), social inventory was 364.74 tons (up 0.37% week - on - week, down 35.63% year - on - year), and total inventory was 545.21 tons (down 0.69% week - on - week, down 30.69% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil inventory increased for two consecutive weeks, with both factory and social inventory slightly rising. Hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 78.32 tons (up 0.13% week - on - week, down 13.31% year - on - year), social inventory was 266.61 tons (up 1.40% week - on - week, down 19.58% year - on - year), and total inventory was 344.93 tons (up 1.11% week - on - week, down 18.14% year - on - year) [40][45] - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 39.03% week - on - week and 2.42% year - on - year, and the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 38.28% week - on - week and increased by 8.91% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in May 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million vehicles respectively, with month - on - month increases of 1.1% and 3.7%, and year - on - year increases of 11.6% and 11.2% [48][51] 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil decreased to 2417.8 tons (down 13.25% week - on - week, down 4.15% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2483.9 tons (up 5.12% week - on - week, down 10.89% year - on - year). The iron ore price index was 95.44 (up 3.38% week - on - week, down 13.70% year - on - year) [59] - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal decreased to 240.85 tons (down 1.44 tons week - on - week, up 1.53 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume of 45 ports was 319.29 tons (down 2.04% week - on - week, up 1.87% year - on - year). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.65 days (up 0.95% week - on - week, down 5.63% year - on - year) [64] - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 0.37% week - on - week to 13878.4 tons, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises increased by 0.80% week - on - week to 8918.57 tons. The average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises were 22.44 days (up 0.22% week - on - week, up 3.55% year - on - year) [70] 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines increased to 83.82% (up 1.62% week - on - week, down 6.90% year - on - year), the operating rate of coal - washing plants was 59.72% (up 1.05% week - on - week, down 14.48% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume increased by 64% week - on - week to 12.56 tons (down 19.13% year - on - year) [76] - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction成交 rate was 79.17% (down 7% week - on - week, down 19.51% year - on - year), and the weekly成交 rate was 86.7% (up 23.31% week - on - week, down 2.87% year - on - year). The daily output of hot metal decreased to 240.85 tons (down 1.44 tons week - on - week, up 1.53 tons year - on - year) [78] - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants increased by 5.57% week - on - week to 716.49 tons, the port inventory of coking coal increased by 6.54% week - on - week to 304.27 tons, and the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased by 1.03% week - on - week to 789.43 tons. The coke inventory of independent coking plants decreased by 16.45% week - on - week to 61.6 tons, the coke port inventory decreased by 4.48% week - on - week to 191.12 tons, and the coke inventory of steel mills increased by 1.55% week - on - week to 637.49 tons [91][97] - **Spot Price**: After four rounds of price cuts, coke prices temporarily stabilized. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1180 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, down 730 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 980 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week, down 820 yuan/ton year - on - year) [103] 5. Spread Analysis - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The basis of hot - rolled coil significantly contracted, and the spreads between the 10 - 1 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil both contracted [105] - **Others**: The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore contracted, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar fluctuated within a narrow range [111]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports [1][3][5] 2. Core Views Steel Industry - In the first half of the year, steel supply and demand were both strong, with continuous inventory reduction, but prices were dragged down by coking coal costs and continued to fall. Currently, prices show signs of stabilizing and rebounding. Demand has weakened slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the high growth of steel exports. In June, supply and demand were close to balance, and inventory stopped falling and remained flat. From July to August, it is the off - season for demand. In the second half of the year, the main interference factor for demand is still China - US tariffs, and the overall demand expectation remains weak. In the medium term, steel maintains a pattern of weak cost support and poor demand expectations. Due to the resumption of production in coking coal producing areas, prices have weakened again. It is recommended to try shorting at the current position or selling out - of - the - money call options [1][3] Coke Industry - As of the previous day's close, coke futures showed a volatile downward trend, while spot prices remained stable. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented on June 23, with a cumulative reduction of 170/190 yuan/ton, and a phased bottom is gradually emerging, and market expectations are starting to improve. On the supply side, due to environmental inspections and maintenance, supply has tightened marginally, and independent coking plant开工 has declined. On the demand side, in June, molten iron production remained above 240,000 tons per day, with rigid demand support, but blast furnace开工 decreased slightly, and molten iron production continued to decline after reaching its peak. In terms of inventory, coking plant inventories decreased slightly, port inventories continued to decline, and steel mill inventories decreased. The overall inventory is at a medium level. For strategies, the spot fundamentals are still relatively loose, and the premium of coke futures over spot provides hedging space. It is recommended to hedge the Coke 2509 contract at high prices, stay on the sidelines for speculation, and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [5] Coking Coal Industry - As of the previous day's close, coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, while spot prices were stable with a slight upward bias. On the supply side, due to environmental protection and other factors, production in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi has decreased, and coal mines are starting to hold prices. Although the overall production has decreased slightly, it is still at a relatively high level. Imported coal prices have rebounded slightly, but there is still obvious inventory pressure. On the demand side, coking plant开工 has started to decline, and downstream blast furnace molten iron production continues to decline after reaching its peak. However, in June, molten iron production remained above 240,000 tons per day, and downstream demand still has resilience, and restocking demand shows signs of recovery. In terms of inventory, coal mine inventories are at a high level and are currently reducing inventory through production cuts. Ports are also reducing inventory from a high level, and downstream users are controlling inventory. The overall inventory is at a medium level. For strategies, the spot fundamentals have improved, and there is a hedging demand for spot merchants after basis repair. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [5] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - **Rebar**: Spot prices in East China increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3130 yuan/ton, remained unchanged in North China at 3160 yuan/ton, and decreased by 10 yuan/ton in South China to 3180 yuan/ton. Futures contract prices also showed small increases [1][3] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Spot prices in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3200 yuan/ton, remained unchanged in North China at 3110 yuan/ton, and decreased by 10 yuan/ton in South China to 3180 yuan/ton. Futures contract prices also had small increases [1][3] Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The price of steel billets decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 2900 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2954 yuan/ton [1][3] - **Profit**: The profit of East China rebar increased by 18 yuan/ton to 87 yuan/ton, the profit of North China rebar decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 167 yuan/ton, and the profit of South China rebar increased by 8 yuan/ton to 157 yuan/ton. The profit of East China hot - rolled coil increased by 8 yuan/ton to 197 yuan/ton, the profit of North China hot - rolled coil increased by 8 yuan/ton to 117 yuan/ton, and the profit of South China hot - rolled coil increased by 18 yuan/ton to 197 yuan/ton [1][3] Production - **Daily Average Molten Iron Production**: It decreased slightly by 0.1 to 242.1 tons, with a decline rate of 0.0% [1][3] - **Five - major Steel Products Production**: It increased by 12.5 tons to 881.0 tons, with an increase rate of 1.4% [1][3] - **Rebar Production**: It increased by 5.7 tons to 217.8 tons, with an increase rate of 2.7%. Among them, electric - arc furnace production increased by 1.6 tons to 25.0 tons, with an increase rate of 6.8%, and converter production increased by 4.1 tons to 192.9 tons, with an increase rate of 2.2% [1][3] - **Hot - rolled Coil Production**: It increased by 1.8 tons to 327.2 tons, with an increase rate of 0.6% [1][3] Inventory - **Five - major Steel Products Inventory**: It increased slightly by 1.1 tons to 1340.0 tons, with an increase rate of 0.1% [1][3] - **Rebar Inventory**: It decreased by 2.1 tons to 549.0 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.4% [1][3] - **Hot - rolled Coil Inventory**: It increased by 1.0 tons to 341.2 tons, with an increase rate of 0.3% [1][3] Transaction and Demand - **Building Materials Transaction Volume**: It remained unchanged at 10.5, with an increase rate of 0.4% [1][3] - **Five - major Steel Products Apparent Demand**: It decreased by 4.3 tons to 879.9 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.5% [1][3] - **Rebar Apparent Demand**: It increased by 0.7 tons to 219.9 tons, with an increase rate of 0.3% [1][3] - **Hot - rolled Coil Apparent Demand**: It decreased by 4.4 tons to 326.3 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.3% [1][3] Coke Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - **Coke Spot Prices**: The price of Grade - A wet - quenched coke in Shanxi remained unchanged at 1094 yuan/ton, while the price of quasi - Grade - A wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1160 yuan/ton [5] - **Coke Futures Prices**: The Coke 09 contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 1404 yuan/ton, and the Coke 01 contract decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 1443 yuan/ton [5] Supply - **Full - sample Coking Plant Daily Average Production**: It decreased by 0.2 tons to 64.5 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.3% [5] - **247 Steel Mills Daily Average Production**: It remained unchanged at 47.4 tons, with an increase rate of 0.1% [5] Demand - **247 Steel Mills Molten Iron Production**: It increased slightly by 0.1 tons to 242.3 tons, with an increase rate of 0.0% [5] Inventory - **Total Coke Inventory**: It decreased by 12.0 tons to 940.9 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.3% [5] - **Full - sample Coking Plant Coke Inventory**: It decreased by 2.6 tons to 113.0 tons, with a decline rate of - 2.2% [5] - **247 Steel Mills Coke Inventory**: It decreased by 6.5 tons to 627.8 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.04% [5] - **Port Inventory**: It decreased by 3.0 tons to 200.1 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.5% [5] Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 0.2 tons to - 5.4 tons, with a decline rate of - 3.84% [5] Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - **Coking Coal Spot Prices**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) increased by 5 yuan/ton to 843 yuan/ton [5] - **Coking Coal Futures Prices**: The Coking Coal 09 contract decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 825 yuan/ton, and the Coking Coal 01 contract decreased by 29 yuan/ton to 861 yuan/ton [5] Supply - **Fenwei Sample Coal Mine Production**: Raw coal production decreased by 3.6 tons to 852.9 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.4%, and clean coal production decreased by 2.3 tons to 434.9 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.5% [5] Demand - **Full - sample Coking Plant Daily Average Production**: It decreased by 0.2 tons to 64.5 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.3% [5] - **247 Steel Mills Daily Average Production**: It remained unchanged at 47.4 tons, with an increase rate of 0.1% [5] Inventory - **Fenwei Coal Mine Clean Coal Inventory**: It decreased by 35.6 tons to 223.3 tons, with a decline rate of - 13.8% [5] - **Full - sample Coking Plant Coking Coal Inventory**: It increased by 13.2 tons to 809.0 tons, with an increase rate of 1.74% [5] - **247 Steel Mills Coking Coal Inventory**: It increased by 6.6 tons to 781.2 tons, with an increase rate of 0.8% [5] - **Port Inventory**: It decreased by 17.7 tons to 285.6 tons, with a decline rate of - 5.8% [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [5] 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, the price of the rebar 2510 contract rose by 0.03%. The production of rebar increased for the second consecutive week, factory inventory and apparent demand turned from decline to increase, and social inventory decreased for the 16th consecutive week. Recently, the macro - sentiment has improved, while the supply and demand of steel have both weakened. The production has rebounded in the past two weeks. Currently, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see [4][5][35][36] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: The daily K - line chart of the rebar futures main contract is presented, with data from Wind Information and Hualong Futures Investment Consulting Department [8][9] - **Spot Price**: The market price of rebar is mentioned, with data from Wind Information and Hualong Futures Investment Consulting Department [10][12] - **Basis and Spread**: Data is from Wind Information and Hualong Futures Investment Consulting Department [16] Important Market Information - Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to hear a report on implementing the spirit of the National Science and Technology Conference and accelerating the construction of a science - and technology power. The second - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China in 2025 proposed to increase the revitalization of existing commercial housing and land and consolidate the stability of the real estate market. On June 25, the People's Bank of China carried out 300 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operations with a one - year term [17] Supply - side Situation - The data of Tangshan blast furnace operating rate is involved, but specific data is not provided in the given content [18] Demand - side Situation - As of May 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 51, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%; the current value of the purchasing manager index in the steel circulation industry of Lange Steel was 47.5, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. Information on construction new starts, construction and completion floor area, commercial housing sales, and Shanghai terminal wire and rod procurement volume is also mentioned [25][31] Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel data, on the 27th, safety inspections in Guxian, Linfen, Shanxi Province became stricter. A local coal mine was shut down for rectification due to safety hazards, involving a production capacity of 900,000 tons, mainly producing low - sulfur primary coking coal, with a shutdown period of 10 - 15 days. Last week, the weekly production of rebar was 2.1784 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,600 tons; the factory inventory was 1.856 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 32,800 tons; the social inventory was 3.634 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 53,500 tons. The weekly production of the five major steel products was 8.8099 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 124,800 tons; the total inventory was 13.4003 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,400 tons; the apparent demand was 8.7985 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43,300 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, unchanged week - on - week and a year - on - year increase of 0.71%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.83%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04% and a year - on - year increase of 1.70%; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, unchanged week - on - week and a year - on - year increase of 16.45%; the daily average pig iron output was 2.4229 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 110,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 285,000 tons. Jiangsu Yonggang plans to overhaul a 1080³ blast furnace for two months starting in early July, which is expected to affect about 200,000 tons of pig iron [34] 后市展望 - Last week, the production of rebar increased for the second consecutive week, factory inventory and apparent demand turned from decline to increase, and social inventory decreased for the 16th consecutive week. Recently, the macro - sentiment has improved, while the supply and demand of steel have both weakened. The production has rebounded in the past two weeks. Currently, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate in the medium term [35] Operation Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see [36]