供需双增，钢价震荡运行 钢材周报 20251124 博士后工作站 | 宏观研究 | 大宗商品 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 段怡雯 从业资格证：F03131526 成材：供需双增，钢价震荡运行 （1）供给： 全国主要钢厂螺纹钢当周产量为207.96万吨（+7.96），热轧当周产量为316.01万吨（+2.35）。 （2） 需求： 近期高频数据显示，螺纹表观需求回升，热卷表观需求回升。上周螺纹表观需求为230.79万吨（+14.42），热轧表观 需求324.42万吨(+10.83）。 基本面方面，钢厂盈利率持续下降，同比处于低位。高炉产能利用率下降，铁水产量小幅下降，部分钢厂复产，螺纹产量回升， 供应压力增加。需求方面，表需回升，但受季节性影响，需求改善持续性存疑，终端需求仍疲弱。据百年建筑调研，截至11月18 日，样本建筑工地资金到位率为59.8%，周环比上升0.04个百分点。其中，非房建项目资金到位率为61.11%，周环比上升0.05个 百分点；房建项目资金到位率为53.29%，周环比上升0.05个百分点。库存加速去化，同比仍处高位。热卷供需改善但有限，产量 增加仍有压 ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年11月18日08时15分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹表观需求环比回落 ，螺纹产量下降，库存继续回落。热卷的库存环比回落，但明显高于历年同期。由于钢厂毛利大 幅回落，且消费高峰期过去，钢厂减产幅度可能会超过正常季节性的减产规模 ，从而可能会引发阶段性的负反馈循环 。近期煤焦价格也出现了走弱 迹象，铁矿石价格高位回落，钢材成本支撑减弱。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，螺纹和热卷短线快速上涨，上方面临 60 日均线和布林带上轨的压 制，布林带开口收窄，期价有可能企稳，但中线下行趋势仍没有改变。 操作建议： 维持观望，不可追涨杀跌，耐心等待回调后做多，中线交易。 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3097 | 44 | 1.44% | 53 | 1.74% | | 期现货价格 | 热轧卷板主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 ...

丛燕飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015666 congyanfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周钢材价格震荡上涨，虽弱现实格局继续压制钢价，但检修产预期升温，市场 情绪回归理性，市场活跃度尚可，原材支撑偏强。截至11月14日，全国主要城市20mm三级抗震螺纹钢均价 3241元/吨，周环比涨16元/吨；8.0mmHPB300高线均价3425元/吨，周环比涨15元/吨。 展望：综合判断，钢材进入需求淡季，短期市场仍将以区间震荡为主，双焦扰动加强下，价格下行空间 受限，而未来随着减产预期的增强，供需关系或将迎来阶段性改善。 风险提示：宏观政策、成材需求、钢材出口、钢厂利润、炉料成本支撑等。 期货研究报告 2025年11月17日 周报 钢材：现实供需双弱，盘面表现坚挺 | 钢材 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 钢厂日均铁水产量 | 万吨 | 236.88 | 234.22 | 2.66 | 1.14% | 周度 | | 螺纹钢厂库存 | 万吨 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly - Steel Products" [1] Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The investment performance in October was still weak, with further declines in manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate, indicating poor domestic demand. However, exports maintained strong resilience, with the advantage of trading volume for price still intact [9] - The steel industry is currently in a production - cut phase. Since steel profit per ton has not suffered significant losses, production reduction has been slow, and inventory depletion of products like hot - rolled coils has slowed down. Production may still have room to decline [9] - With insufficient driving forces and intensified long - short battles, the short - term fluctuation range of rebar is expected to be between 3000 and valley - electricity cost. Prudent operation is recommended [9] Summary by Directory 1. Supply and Demand Fundamentals Price and Output - Last week, domestic steel spot prices were consolidating. As of Friday, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3160 yuan, and the price of hot - rolled coils was 3260 yuan [7] - On November 13, the total output of five major steel products decreased by 22.36 tons. The factory inventory of five major products decreased by 12.61 tons week - on - week, and the social inventory decreased by 13.61 tons. The apparent demand was 860.6 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.31 tons [7] - As of November 14, in the long - process spot market in East China, the cash - inclusive cost of rebar was 3181 yuan, with a profit of about - 21 yuan; the profit of hot - rolled coils was about 22 yuan. In the electric - furnace market, the flat - electricity cost of rebar was about 3262 yuan, and the valley - electricity cost was about 3131 yuan. The flat - electricity profit of rebar was about - 202 yuan, and the valley - electricity profit was about - 71 yuan [7] Scrap Steel - As of November 13, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2130 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [8] - The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 34.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage point. The daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 50.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 tons. Among them, the daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 24.1 tons/day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 tons; the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 17 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 tons, an increase of 0.3% [8] - The average daily arrival of 255 sample steel mills was 48.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84 tons, a decrease of 3.6%. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 492.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.58 tons, an increase of 1.4% [8] Other Data - In 2024, the national crude steel output was 1.005 billion tons, a decrease of 13.99 million tons or 1.7% compared with 2023; the pig iron output was 852 million tons, a decrease of 13.27 million tons or 2.3% compared with 2023 [18] - From January to October 2025, the cumulative pig iron output was 711 million tons, a decrease of 1.8% compared with the same period in 2024; the cumulative crude steel output was 818 million tons, a decrease of 3.9% compared with the same period in 2024 [18] - The PMI in October 2025 was 49% [22] - From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,089.14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. In October, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 8.91% year - on - year; manufacturing investment decreased by 6.67% year - on - year; real estate development investment decreased by 23.22% year - on - year [26] - From January to October, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6,529.39 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The new construction area was 490.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%. The completed floor area was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9% [29] 2. Main Variety Basis and Spread - This week, the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar shrank [39] 3. Supply Long - Process Supply - As of November 14, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 88.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.99 percentage points or 1.13%. The average daily pig iron output was 236.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.66 tons or 1.14% [42] Short - Process Supply - As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - furnace plants was 34.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage point. As of November 14, the iron - scrap price difference was 35.6 yuan, a week - on - week increase of 40 yuan [45] Rebar Production - This week, the original sample output of rebar was 2 million tons, a decrease of 85,400 tons. Among them, the long - process output was 1.7191 million tons, a decrease of 73,800 tons; the short - process output was 28,090 tons, a decrease of 11,600 tons [57] 4. Demand Building Materials Transactions - Data on building materials transactions in the northern, eastern, and southern regions are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [60][62][63] Cement Mill Operating Rate - The average operating load of national cement mills was 37.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.46 percentage points, and the decline rate widened by 0.18 percentage points. Market demand mostly decreased, showing strong off - season characteristics [68] Real Estate Sales - Data on the sales area of 30 - city commercial housing are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn [70] Rebar Inventory - This period, the original sample factory inventory of rebar was 1.6042 million tons, a decrease of 64,200 tons; the social inventory was 4.1575 million tons, a decrease of 99,500 tons; the total inventory was 5.7617 million tons, a decrease of 163,700 tons [74] Hot - Rolled Coil Supply and Demand - This week, the output of hot - rolled coils was 313,660 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45,000 tons. The apparent demand was 313,590 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,100 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 900 tons, the social inventory decreased by 200 tons, and the total inventory increased by 700 tons [77] Plate Demand - As of November 14, the cold - hot price difference in the Shanghai area was 610 yuan/ton [84] Export Situation - As of November 14, China's FOB export price was 440 US dollars, and the export profit was - 23.3 US dollars. The outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 3.3176 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 399,100 tons or 13.7% [87]

从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询证号：Z0022680 目录 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-11-17 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 01 钢材 02 焦煤焦炭 基 本 面 弱 稳 ， 等 待 新 驱 动 周 五 夜 盘 异 动 ， 关 注 下 周 环 保 督 导 组 进 驻 影 响 03 铁矿石 基 本 面 仍 然 偏 弱 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 钢材 钢材：基本面弱稳，等待新驱动 0 80 160 240 320 400 480 01/01 03/01 04/30 06/29 08/28 10/27 12/26 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 20 30 40 50 60 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the steel market, due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills are expected to reduce production, which may trigger a negative feedback cycle. Coal and coke prices are showing signs of weakness, and iron ore prices have fallen from their highs. Both rebar and hot-rolled coil futures prices have broken below the support of the 10-day moving average, and attention should be paid to whether they can stabilize in the future [2]. - For iron ore, the commissioning of the Simandou Iron Mine is expected to impact overall supply. Steel mills will continue to cut production, suppressing raw material prices. The global iron ore shipment volume has declined from its high, and port inventories have increased during the consumption peak season, putting pressure on futures prices. The futures price of the 01 contract has broken below the support of the middle - band of the Bollinger Bands and the 10 - day moving average, and attention should be paid to the support of the lower - band of the Bollinger Bands [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, rebar's apparent demand decreased, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. Hot - rolled coil inventory has far exceeded the same - period level after a significant increase, and the total inventory continued to rise this week [2]. - **Cost**: Coking coal and coke spot prices are running strongly, providing some support for costs. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill profits, coal and coke prices are showing signs of weakness [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices have broken below the support of the 10 - day moving average on the daily K - line chart, and currently, there is support from the lower - band of the Bollinger Bands [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, do not chase up or sell down. Wait patiently for the price to stabilize and then go long on dips for medium - term trading. Do not short when the price is at a low level [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The Simandou Iron Mine has been commissioned, affecting overall supply. Steel mills' iron - making output has declined, and they will continue to cut production, suppressing raw material prices. Global shipments have declined from their high, and port inventories have increased during the consumption peak season, suppressing futures prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 01 contract futures price has broken below the support of the middle - band of the Bollinger Bands and the 10 - day moving average, and currently, there is resistance from the dense trading area above. Attention should be paid to the support of the lower - band of the Bollinger Bands [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and wait patiently for the price to stabilize and then go long on dips [4]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week ending November 12, national building materials production was 4362600 tons, a decrease of 168900 tons from the previous week; total inventory was 9545400 tons, a decrease of 196700 tons from the previous week. National hot - rolled coil production was 4114900 tons, an increase of 14600 tons from the previous week; total inventory was 4602300 tons, a decrease of 43900 tons from the previous week [6]. - On November 12, the auction prices of coking coal in the Linfen market showed mixed trends. Among the 7 reported transaction results, with a total listing of 186000 tons and a non - sale of 27000 tons, the non - sale rate was 14.5%. Two suppliers' prices increased, two decreased, and the rest remained the same [6]. - The Handan Ecological Environment Bureau announced that the Handan Heavy Pollution Weather Emergency Command decided to launch a Level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather at 18:00 on November 12, 2025, and it is expected to be lifted around November 16 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market shows a pattern of both supply and demand decline, with steel prices weakly oscillating. In the short - term, the market will run in an oscillating manner due to factors such as reduced steel mill profitability, lower iron - water production, and seasonal demand changes [1][5][6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1成材 (Finished Products) - **Supply**: The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills nationwide was 2.0854 million tons (-40,500 tons), and that of hot - rolled coils was 3.1816 million tons (-54,000 tons) [5] - **Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1852 million tons (-136,700 tons), and for hot - rolled coils, it was 3.143 million tons (-175,900 tons) [5] - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 5.9254 million tons (-99,800 tons), with social inventory at 4.257 million tons (-51,100 tons) and steel mill inventory at 1.6684 million tons (-48,700 tons). Hot - rolled total inventory was 4.1045 million tons (+38,600 tons), social inventory was 3.3302 million tons (+40,900 tons), and steel mill inventory was 774,300 tons (-2,300 tons) [5] - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar main contract was 156 yuan/ton (+32 yuan/ton), and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 15 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton) [5] - **Summary**: The profitability rate of steel mills was 39.83%, a 5.19% week - on - week decrease. Iron - water production was 2.3422 million tons, a 21,400 - ton week - on - week decrease. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.13%, a 1.38% week - on - week increase; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.81%, a 0.8% week - on - week decrease. The electric furnace operating rate was 67.03%, a 1.8% week - on - week decrease; the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 50.87%, a 2.12% week - on - week decrease [5] 3.2 Raw Materials - **Cost Support**: The prices of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke and main coking coal from Lvliang increased, while the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port decreased. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,570 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton), main coking coal from Lvliang was 1,645 yuan/ton (+70 yuan/ton), and 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/ton (-30 yuan/ton) [19] 3.3 Production - related Indicators - **Iron - water Production and Furnace Operating Rates**: As of November 7, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 1.38% week - on - week, the electric furnace operating rate decreased by 1.8% week - on - week, and iron - water production was 2.3422 million tons, a 21,400 - ton week - on - week decrease. The profitability rate of steel mills was 39.83%, a 5.19% week - on - week decrease. The Tangshan blast furnace operating rate was 91.87%, a 23.54% week - on - week increase [24][28][33] - **Steel Output**: Rebar output decreased by 40,500 tons week - on - week. In terms of process, long - process output decreased by 37,900 tons week - on - week, and short - process output decreased by 2,600 tons week - on - week. Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 54,000 tons week - on - week but remained at a high level [38] 3.4 Demand - related Indicators - **Apparent Demand**: Rebar consumption decreased by 136,700 tons week - on - week, and hot - rolled coil demand decreased by 175,900 tons week - on - week [44] - **Construction Steel and Hot - rolled Coil Volumes**: As of November 7, the weekly average volume of building materials was 96,400 tons, remaining at a low level. The weekly average volume of hot - rolled coils was 28,800 tons. The output of cold - rolled coils was 838,400 tons, a 21,300 - ton week - on - week decrease, and the output continued to decline [48][53] 3.5 Inventory - related Indicators - **General Steel Inventory**: As of November 7, the inventory of Tangshan billets was 545,500 tons, a 9,000 - ton week - on - week increase. The total inventory of major steel products was 10.7474 million tons, a 25,800 - ton week - on - week decrease [56] - **Rebar Inventory**: Rebar total inventory decreased by 99,800 tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 51,100 tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory decreased by 48,700 tons week - on - week [60] - **Hot - rolled Coil Inventory**: Hot - rolled coil total inventory increased by 38,600 tons week - on - week, social inventory increased by 40,900 tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory decreased by 2,300 tons week - on - week [65] 3.6 Export and Downstream Industry Data - **Steel Exports**: In October, steel exports were 9.78 million tons, a 690,000 - ton month - on - month decrease. From January to October, the cumulative steel export volume was 97.737 million tons, a 6.6% cumulative year - on - year increase [68] - **Automobile Industry**: In September, automobile production was 3.276 million vehicles, a 466,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase; automobile sales increased by 369,400 tons month - on - month. New - energy automobile production was 1.617 million vehicles, a 226,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase; new - energy automobile sales increased by 209,000 tons month - on - month [72] - **Real Estate Industry**: From January to September, national real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, with a 1% decrease in the decline rate. Specifically, from January to September, the new construction area of houses was 453.99 million square meters, a 18.9% decrease; the completed area of houses was 311.29 million square meters, a 15.3% year - on - year decrease with a narrowing decline. The sales area of newly - built commercial housing decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, with a 0.8% decline; the sales amount of newly - built commercial housing decreased by 7.9% year - on - year, with a 0.6% decline. The funds in place for development enterprises from January to September totaled 7.2 trillion yuan, a 8.4% year - on - year decrease [74][75]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The A - share market is in a repricing adjustment after the quarterly reports, with common short - term rebounds and limited downside risks [2]. - The bond market pricing may tilt towards fundamentals as credit data is expected to weaken in October, and the strong equity market suppresses the bond market [2]. - International gold prices will mainly show a volatile consolidation trend, with silver following gold's fluctuations [2]. - The shipping index (European line) will be volatile in the short term [2]. - The supply of iron elements in the steel market is loose, and there are various trading strategies for different steel - related products [2]. - The prices of some chemical products are affected by supply - demand and cost factors, with limited rebound space or downward pressure [2]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as trade negotiations, supply, and production, showing different trends [2]. - Special and new energy products have their own price trends and trading logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the market冲高兑现预期, there is a slight callback, and the technology sector recovers. A - shares are in repricing adjustment, with short - term rebounds and limited downside risks. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market pricing may tilt towards fundamentals, and the strong equity market suppresses the bond market. It is recommended to go long on a single - side strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the rising IRR [2]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: International gold prices will oscillate between 3900 - 4030 dollars, and silver will fluctuate between 47 - 49 dollars [2]. - **Shipping Index Futures (European Line)**: It will be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The supply of iron elements in the January contract is loose. It is recommended to hold a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils, and to go short on the iron ore contract at high prices [2]. - **Iron Ore**: After the shipping volume declines and the arrival volume increases, the port inventory rises, and the iron ore price drops after rising. It is recommended to go short at high prices and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The coal price in the producing area is strong, and the Mongolian coal price is firm. It is recommended to go long on coking coal at low prices and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. - **Coke**: The third - round price increase of mainstream coking enterprises has been implemented, and coking coal provides cost support. It is recommended to go long on coke at low prices and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price center has回调, and the downstream demand has briefly recovered. Pay attention to the support at 84000 and the pressure at 86500 [2]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has increased in both volume and price, but the short - term fundamentals restrict the upward height. The main operation range is 20800 - 21600 [2]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own price range and trading suggestions, such as zinc oscillating at a high level between 22300 - 23000, tin maintaining a high - level oscillation, etc. [2]. Chemical Products - **PX, PTA, Short - fiber, Bottle - chip**: The supply - demand expectations are weak, and the cost - end support is limited, with limited rebound space [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply is abundant, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. It is recommended to hold out - of - the - money call options and consider a reverse arbitrage strategy [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand situation and trading suggestions, such as PVC being recommended to go short on rebounds [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The prices of some grains and oils are affected by factors such as trade negotiations and production. For example, the price of palm oil is weak, and it is recommended to close the long positions of some contracts [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The pig price is oscillating, and it is recommended to hold a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage strategy [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Each product has its own price trend and trading suggestions, such as sugar being recommended to trade short on rebounds [2]. Special and New Energy Products - **Glass**: There is support at the bottom due to the peak construction season and production line disturbances. It is recommended to pay attention to the spot market for short - term long - trading opportunities [2]. - **Rubber**: The negative factors have been gradually digested, and the rubber price has rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: They are mainly oscillating, with specific price ranges [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The trading logic has changed recently, and it is in a weak adjustment [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: No specific overall industry investment rating is provided, but the strategy for steel is "oscillating weakly" [2] - Iron Ore: The strategy is "oscillating weakly" [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal is expected to "oscillate", and coke is also expected to "oscillate" [6] - Thermal Coal: No specific investment strategy is provided [7] 2. Core Views - Steel market has low - price and high - volume trading, with steel prices rebounding slightly. However, due to weak real estate, potential weakening of domestic demand in infrastructure and consumer - related manufacturing in the fourth quarter, and the need to exchange external demand with low prices, further production cuts are needed for inventory reduction [1] - Iron ore prices are under downward pressure due to falling steel mill profitability, reduced iron - water production, and a significant increase in iron ore arrivals [3] - Driven by the sharp rise in thermal coal prices, coking coal and coke prices are oscillating and rebounding. The supply of coking coal and coke is tight, and the demand shows certain resilience [5][6] - Thermal coal prices continue to rise. The downstream non - power demand is strong, and prices are expected to be firm in the short term due to winter storage expectations and difficulty in inventory accumulation [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the rebar futures main contract is 3037 yuan/ton, and that of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract is 3256 yuan/ton. The overall spot trading volume of steel is average, with the national building materials trading volume at 11.03 tons, showing an increase compared to the previous day and a good week - on - week performance [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The weekly output of the five major steel products is 856.74 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.55 tons. All product outputs have declined. The real estate remains weak, and there is pressure on the domestic demand of infrastructure and consumer - related manufacturing in the fourth quarter. The inventory reduction of the five major steel products has slowed down [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is "oscillating weakly", and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices are oscillating. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties have risen slightly. The trading volume of national main - port iron ore is 115.4 tons, a 6.07% increase compared to the previous day, and the trading volume of forward - looking spot is 158.9 tons, a 6.00% increase. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons compared to the previous period, and the steel mill profitability rate is 39.83%, a 5.19% decrease [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The apparent demand for steel has dropped significantly this week, and the steel mill profitability rate has further decreased. The iron ore arrival volume has increased significantly, and the iron - water output has decreased, resulting in reduced demand [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is "oscillating weakly", and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Affected by the rise in thermal coal prices and market sentiment, the coking coal and coke futures prices are oscillating and rebounding. The import volume of Mongolian coking coal has recovered, and the trading volume is average [5][6] - **Logic and Views**: For coking coal, the domestic supply recovery is slow, and imported coal is abundant, with a slightly loose overall situation but a lower inventory accumulation rate than last year. The demand is supported by the successful third - round price increase of coke. For coke, the supply is tight due to profit losses, and the demand shows certain resilience after the third - round price increase [6] - **Strategy**: Coking coal is expected to "oscillate", and coke is also expected to "oscillate". There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are rising, and the non - power demand is strong. At the ports, the trading volume of market coal is low, but traders are reluctant to sell due to rising coal mine prices and low port inventories. The price of imported coal is also rising [7] - **Demand and Logic**: In the short term, prices are oscillating and rising due to tight supply in production areas. In the long - term, the supply pattern is loose, but with the approaching of the winter heating season and strong non - power demand, attention should be paid to overall consumption and inventory replenishment [7] - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%, the second rate cut this year, and will end the balance sheet reduction starting December 1st. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, continue to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for one year, and pause the implementation of the 50% penetration rule of export control and the 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. China will adjust or suspend relevant counter - measures accordingly [1][4][6]. - Last week, the production and apparent demand of steel increased, and inventory decreased. However, as the weather turns cold, steel demand will gradually weaken, and the pattern of weak supply and demand in the steel industry remains unchanged. Overall, with the macro - level positive factors realized, the market will focus on the fundamentals, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3106 | 6 | 0.19 | 7602371 | 2647901 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3308 | 9 | 0.27 | 2719646 | 1473286 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 800.0 | 13.5 | 1.72 | 1679472 | 551548 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1286.0 | 22.5 | 1.78 | 6258826 | 970861 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1777.0 | - 2.5 | - 0.14 | 111286 | 50050 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures rose first and then fell. The macro - level factors drove the black - series commodities to be generally strong, but after the macro - level uncertainties were resolved on Thursday, the futures prices declined. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2980 (+50) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3230 (+30) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3330 (+40) yuan/ton [4]. Industry News - Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, proposed to reform and improve the real - estate development, financing, and sales systems, promote the spot - house sales system, and standardize the supervision of pre - sale funds [6]. - The "Proposal for Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" was released, aiming to optimize and upgrade traditional industries, enhance the status and competitiveness of key industries in the global industrial division of labor, and improve the self - controllability of the industrial chain [6]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and will end the balance sheet reduction starting December 1st [6]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period and the long - term goal of reaching the level of medium - developed countries in per - capita GDP by 2035 [6]. - The US and China reached an agreement on tariffs, with the US canceling some tariffs and pausing relevant investigation measures, and China adjusting or suspending relevant counter - measures [6]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including the trend of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and their spreads, basis trends, regional price differences, steel mill profits, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption [9][10][11]