| 钢材产业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | 2025年8月26日 | | | | | | | | | | | 钢材价格及价差 | 品种 | 前值 | 某差 | 现值 | 狱跌 | 单位 | | | | | | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3280 | 30 | 86 | 3310 | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3270 | 3280 | 56 | 10 | | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3420 | 3390 | 30 | 196 | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3261 | 3230 | Ad | 31 | | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3138 | 3119 | 10 | 172 | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3224 | 3195 | 29 | 86 | | | | 元/吨 | 热卷现货(华东) | ਟੇਤੋ | 3430 | 3400 | 30 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of steel are peaking, with seasonal demand decline and supply - demand pressure. Steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center may shift downwards before the parade. The prices of coking coal and coke may see their price centers gradually rise, and one can wait for corrections to go long on far - month contracts. Iron ore prices will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and ferroalloy futures prices are close to the cost of some production areas, with high - premium risks largely released [5][14][17][19][20] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: From January to July, China's new and renovated rural roads totaled 51,000 kilometers, and the fixed - asset investment in rural roads reached 206.24 billion yuan. In July, China's excavator output was 24,732 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.9%. The spot prices of Shanghai and Beijing's rebar remained unchanged, while the spot prices of Shanghai and Tianjin's hot - rolled coils decreased by 20 yuan [3][4] - **Logical Analysis**: The black sector rebounded slightly last night. Currently, steel products are generally accumulating inventory, with the inventory accumulation rate slowing down. Hot - rolled steel demand remains strong, while construction steel demand is accelerating its decline. With the approaching parade, blast furnace production cuts may drive down raw material prices and lower the steel price center. Steel prices will oscillate weakly in the short term [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Steel will maintain a range - bound trend. It is recommended to enter into positive basis spreads on dips and hold them. It is advisable to wait and see on options [8][9][10] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On the 20th, the online auction sentiment of coking coal in the Lvliang market was poor, with many auctions resulting in failures or price cuts. The coking coal forward market was stable. The warehouse - receipt prices of coke and coking coal in different regions were provided [11][12] - **Logical Analysis**: The spot price of coking coal fluctuates, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. The coking enterprises proposed a seventh - round price increase for coke, but the downstream steel mills have not given a clear response. In the medium term, coal supply will be disrupted, and the coking coal price center will gradually rise [13][14] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for corrections to go long on far - month contracts. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, options, and spot - futures trading [15] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: The US Treasury Secretary said there was a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues. Six out of nine listed building materials companies achieved profitability in the first half of 2025. On the 20th, the national main port iron ore trading volume increased by 3.5% month - on - month, and the construction steel trading volume of 237 mainstream traders increased by 12.4% month - on - month. The spot prices and standard product prices of different iron ore varieties were provided [16] - **Logical Analysis**: The iron ore price rose 1.04% last night, and the market sentiment is fluctuating. The mainstream ore shipments are stable, and the non - mainstream ore shipments in August are at a high level year - on - year. The demand for terminal steel is under pressure, and the factors driving the price up are weakening. Iron ore prices will mainly fluctuate in the short term [17] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy was provided in the text. Ferroalloy - **Related Information**: In July 2025, the national manganese ore imports were 2743500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.22% and a year - on - year increase of 19.61%. The spot prices of different manganese ores in Tianjin Port were provided [19] - **Logical Analysis**: On the 20th, the spot price of ferrosilicon was slightly weak, and the production increased last week. The spot price of manganese - silicon and manganese ore decreased, and the production of manganese - silicon accelerated. The high - premium risks of both have been largely released [19][20] - **Trading Strategy**: Partially reduce short positions. Enter into positive spot - futures arbitrage when the basis is low. Sell straddle option combinations at high prices [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Steel Industry - Current steel prices are affected by the rebound of coking coal. Steel mills are reducing production, hot-rolled coil inventory is increasing, and apparent demand is declining. Overall demand is expected to remain weak due to off - season demand and tariff - affected exports. Steel prices may fluctuate at low levels. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with attention to short - selling opportunities around 3000 for the October contract of rebar and 3150 for the October contract of hot - rolled coil [1]. Iron Ore Industry - This week, global iron ore shipments increased significantly, demand remained relatively stable, and the inventory continued to decline but at a slower pace. In the future, terminal demand for finished products may weaken, but iron ore demand is expected to remain resilient. Iron ore supply pressure will increase. It is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate in the range of 700 - 745 [3]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry - Coking coal futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend last week, with a divergence between futures and spot prices. The spot market of coking coal was weak, and the market was still in a state of oversupply. Coke futures also showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, and the third round of price cuts for coke was implemented on June 6. The supply - demand pattern of coke was still loose in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for the 2509 contracts of both coking coal and coke and short after the rebound [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, supply increased this week, mainly due to the resumption of production in Ningxia and Shaanxi. Demand remained relatively stable, and the supply - demand contradiction began to emerge as supply increased. For ferromanganese, supply increased slightly this week, and supply pressure reappeared under weak demand. It is recommended to wait and see for both, with attention to the price changes of coal [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts all showed small increases. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3100 to 3120 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of rebar rose from 2952 to 2975 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2880 yuan/ton, while slab prices remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. Profits of hot - rolled coil in different regions increased, and profits of rebar also showed different degrees of increase [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, a decrease of 0.0%. The output of five major steel products decreased by 0.5 to 880.4, a decrease of 0.1%. Rebar production decreased by 7.0 to 218.5, a decrease of 3.1%; hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.2 to 328.8, an increase of 2.9%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly, rebar inventory decreased, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.5 to 10.4, an increase of 4.9%. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 31.6 to 882.2, a decrease of 3.5%. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 19.7 to 229.0, a decrease of 7.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Price and Spread - The basis of different iron ore varieties for the 09 contract decreased significantly. For example, the basis of PB powder for the 09 contract decreased from 122.4 to 63.6, a decrease of 48.0%. The 5 - 9 spread decreased slightly, and the 1 - 5 spread increased slightly [3]. Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 385.2 to 2536.5, an increase of 17.9%. The monthly national import volume increased by 917.5 to 10313.8, an increase of 9.8%. The weekly average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, a decrease of 0.0%. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 271.1 to 7258.3, a decrease of 3.6% [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 39.9 to 13826.69, a decrease of 0.3%. The inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 to 8690.2, a decrease of 0.7% [3]. Coking Coal and Coke Industry Price and Spread - For coking coal, the price of the 09 contract rose by 22 to 779, an increase of 2.8%, and the price of the 01 contract rose by 20 to 793, an increase of 2.5%. For coke, the price of the 09 contract rose by 15 to 1357, an increase of 0.6%, and the price of the 01 contract rose by 10 to 1368, an increase of 0.7% [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly output of coke decreased slightly, and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5, a decrease of 0.4%. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, a decrease of 0.0% [5]. Inventory - The inventory of coke in all - sample coking plants increased by 15.6 to 127.0, an increase of 14.04%, and the inventory of coke in 247 steel mills decreased by 9.1 to 645.8, a decrease of 1.4% [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Price and Spread - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 92 to 5104, a decrease of 1.8%, and the closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased by 56 to 5538, an increase of 1.0% [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 5631.0. The production profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased by 50 to - 329.0, a decrease of 17.9% [7]. Supply and Demand - The weekly output of ferrosilicon increased by 1.2 to 9.7, an increase of 14.6%. The weekly output of ferromanganese increased slightly. The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese remained relatively stable [7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.7 to 68.7, a decrease of 9.8%, and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased slightly by 0.1 to 18.7, an increase of 0.34% [7].