宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 宽幅震荡 | 基本面弱势未变，矿价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需格局在走弱，矿石终端消耗持续下行，且钢厂盈利状况未改善，需求弱势格局难改， 继续承压矿价，相对利好则是低厂库使得节前补库预期偏强。与此同时，国内港口到货和矿商发运均 环比下降，但两者均处于年内高位，海外矿石供应积极，即便内矿供应在收缩，矿石供应维持高位。 总之， ...

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 775.0 yuan, with a current price of 774.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 1.38% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Dongwu Futures indicates that there will be certain support for iron ore prices, as the main port's imported iron ore spot prices show slight fluctuations, and the market remains relatively resilient [2] - Shanjin Futures suggests that iron ore prices are facing potential downward pressure due to a continued decline in steel mill iron output and the end of the consumption peak season, which may lead to reduced production and price suppression [3] - Hengtai Futures notes that the upward space for iron ore prices is limited, as external mine shipments have increased and the current supply-demand fundamentals do not show significant contradictions, suggesting a return to basic market logic [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of iron ore 2601 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation and weakening" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the current situation is weak and the driving force for the upward movement of ore prices is not strong [1]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Driving Logic - The decline of coking coal and coke led to the withdrawal of arbitrage funds, causing the iron ore futures price to rebound from a low level. However, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore has not improved. Steel mill production is weakening, the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market have not been alleviated. Demand is unlikely to improve substantially, which will still suppress ore prices. At the same time, both the arrival of ore at domestic ports and the shipments of overseas miners have declined, but they are still at relatively high levels this year. Domestic ore production is weakly stable, and the supply pressure remains. In summary, iron ore demand is weakening while supply remains high. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the ore market are weak, and the ore price will continue to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2].