铅价调整修复
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电池企业减停产,铅价调整修复
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 02:41
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures adjusted from a high level. The macro - positive news has landed, and the market risk appetite has cooled. The steady resumption of production by smelters combined with the centralized production cuts of battery enterprises has weakened the supply - demand support. However, as more smelters resume production, the demand for raw materials increases, strengthening the cost support. Also, the narrowing of the import profit of lead ingots after the decline of the Shanghai - London ratio weakens the import impact, limiting the adjustment space of futures prices. It is expected that the lead price will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [2][8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - From October 24th to October 31st, the SHFE lead price dropped from 17,595 yuan/ton to 17,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 205 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 2,016.5 dollars/ton to 2,025 dollars/ton, an increase of 8.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.73 to 8.59, a decrease of 0.14; the SHFE inventory decreased from 36,333 tons to 35,999 tons, a decrease of 334 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 235,375 tons to 220,300 tons, a decrease of 15,075 tons; the social inventory increased from 35,900 tons to 39,400 tons, an increase of 3,500 tons; the spot premium increased from - 215 yuan/ton to - 210 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton [5] Market Review - Last week, the main PB2512 contract price of Shanghai lead futures adjusted from a high level, with a weekly decline of 1.17%, and fluctuated narrowly at night on Friday. The continuous decline of LME inventory supported the upward movement of the LME lead price center of gravity, but the weakening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the rebound of the US dollar in the second half of the week suppressed the upward trend of LME lead, with a weekly increase of 0.42%. In the spot market, downstream enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm was average at the end of the month, and the transaction in the scattered order market did not improve significantly [6] Industry News - As of the week ending October 31st, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 350 yuan/metal ton, and the imported ore processing fee remained flat at - 125 dollars/dry ton. An East - China large - scale secondary lead smelter started the furnace - drying operation on Monday and planned to start formal production this weekend, which is expected to contribute over 10,000 tons of secondary refined lead output in November. A survey of 30 industry analysts showed that the average spot lead price on LME in 2025 was 1,973 dollars/ton, and it is expected to be 2,050 dollars/ton in 2026. A large - scale lead - acid battery enterprise in Central China planned to cut or stop production from October 28th to November 2nd. A large - scale secondary lead smelter in North China stopped production for maintenance, affecting the refined lead output of 300 - 400 tons per day [9] Related Charts - The content provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventory, lead ingot premium, primary and secondary lead price difference, waste battery price, secondary lead enterprise profit, lead ore processing fee, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead output, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][11][12][13][14][15][17][18][19][20][21][22][24][25][27][29][32]